大秦鐵路介紹課件

1、2012年5月大秦鐵路公司介紹習(xí)斌投資亮點(diǎn)估值比率2012-5-23 P=7.54201020112012E2013E收入增長率26.00%7.12%7.71%7.29%基本每股收益增長率39.16%12.37%7.70%9.94%PE10.77 9.58 8.90 8.09 PB2.00 1.80 1.60 1.50 EV/EBITDA6.90 6.60 5.80 5.20 P/S2.67 2.49 2.31 2.16 分紅比例50.00%49.60%50.00%50.00%股息率4.50%5.20%5.62%6.18%一、公司概況一、公司概況二、主營業(yè)務(wù)貨運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)（一）西煤東運(yùn)的格局二、主營

2、業(yè)務(wù)貨運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)（一）西煤東運(yùn)的格局二、主營業(yè)務(wù)貨運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)（二）大秦鐵路進(jìn)入穩(wěn)定成長期大秦線運(yùn)營單位200620072008200920102011全年煤炭運(yùn)輸量萬噸27,29732,50034,02633,01740,50444,017日均運(yùn)煤量萬噸68.583.293.290.5111120.6最高日運(yùn)量萬噸79.199.9105111.4122129.9日均開行重車列7283.285.89088.3972萬噸列車列6.322.429.84548.759.41.5萬噸列車列4.82.1單元萬噸列車列34.218.116.489.36.5組合萬噸列車列31.542.739.63725.529單車噸

3、位 萬噸0.951411.08621.00561.25711.2433二、主營業(yè)務(wù)貨運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)（三）大秦鐵路運(yùn)價(jià)分析二、主營業(yè)務(wù)貨運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)（三）大秦鐵路運(yùn)價(jià)分析二、主營業(yè)務(wù)貨運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)（四）大秦鐵路貨運(yùn)收入預(yù)測(cè)2010A2011A2012E2013E2010A2011A2012E2013E其中大秦線4.0504 4.4017 4.5000 4.6500 22.70%8.67%2.23%3.33%占比72.26%73.74%73.00%73.00%煤炭運(yùn)輸量（億噸）5.6050 5.9693 6.1644 6.3699 18.10%6.50%3.27%3.33%占比76.32%78.20%78.00%77

4、.00%貨物運(yùn)輸量7.3440 7.6330 7.9031 8.2725 13.50%3.94%3.54%4.68%貨物運(yùn)輸平均公里449.2102 464.6928 471.6632 476.3798 6.91%3.45%1.50%1.00%貨物周轉(zhuǎn)量（億噸公里）3299.0000 3547.0000 3727.5804 3940.8755 21.30%7.52%5.09%5.72%貨運(yùn)噸公里收入 元0.0976 0.0982 0.1011 0.1021 2.09%0.52%3.00%1.00%貨運(yùn)總收入 億元322.1390 348.1543 376.8555 402.4036 23.90

5、%8.08%8.24%6.78%二、主營業(yè)務(wù)客運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)2010A2011A2012E2013E2010A2011A2012E2013E客運(yùn)人數(shù) 萬人54455916625066008.30%8.65%5.65%5.60%客運(yùn)里程246.0973 270.4530 273.1575 286.8154 9.90%1.00%5.00%旅客周轉(zhuǎn)量 噸公里134.0000 160.0000 170.7235 189.2982 19.40%6.70%10.88%客運(yùn)費(fèi)率（元/噸公里）0.3304 0.2942 0.3000 0.3000 -10.97%1.98%0.00%客運(yùn)收入 億元44.2754 47.

6、0688 51.2170 56.7895 6.31%8.81%10.88%二、主營業(yè)務(wù)總收入2010A2011A2012E2013E2010A2011A2012E2013E 主營業(yè)務(wù)收入408.2629 437.0263 470.8798 505.1124 26.69%7.05%7.75%7.27%貨物運(yùn)輸(百萬元)322.1390 348.1543 376.8555 402.4036 23.90%8.08%8.24%6.78%客運(yùn)運(yùn)輸(百萬元)44.2754 47.0688 51.2170 56.7895 27.49%6.31%8.81%10.88%其他服務(wù)(百萬元)41.8485 41.8

7、032 42.8073 45.9193 51.98%-0.11%2.40%7.27% 貨物運(yùn)輸占比78.90%79.66%80.03%79.67% 客運(yùn)運(yùn)輸占比10.84%10.77%10.88%11.24% 其他服務(wù)占比10.25%9.57%9.09%9.09%其他業(yè)務(wù)占貨運(yùn)客運(yùn)總和比11.42%10.58%10.00%10.00%其他業(yè)務(wù)收入11.8746 13.0442 13.8910 15.0018 占比2.91%2.98%2.95%2.97%營業(yè)總收入420.1375 450.0705 484.7707 520.1142 26.00%7.12%7.71%7.29%四、毛利率變化情況2

8、0082009201020112012E2013E營業(yè)總收入(百萬元 人民幣)22595.3223123.1442013.7645007.0448,47752,011貨物運(yùn)輸(%)90.84 87.86 78.90%79.66%80.03%79.67%客運(yùn)運(yùn)輸(%)3.15 3.49 10.84%10.77%10.88%11.24%其他服務(wù)(%)3.09 6.99 10.25%9.57%9.09%9.09%營業(yè)總成本(百萬元 人民幣)11708.8311932.4724,21926,42128,91630,863銷售毛利率(%)48.18%48.40%42.35%41.30%40.35%40.

9、66%五、投資收益情況項(xiàng)目2009201020112012E2013E煤炭運(yùn)量 萬噸14,90116,36017,72020,00025,000同比增長9.80%8.30%12.90%25.00%朔黃線凈利潤 百萬3,8904,1494,3975,3056,549投資收益 百萬25831,8132,1832,696同比增長211.10%20.50%23.50%公司凈利潤6,53010,41111,69912,60013,778投資收入/凈利潤0.00%5.60%15.50%17.33%19.57%六、業(yè)績預(yù)測(cè)億元1Q20102Q20103Q20104Q20101Q20112Q20113Q201

10、14Q20111Q2012營業(yè)總收入65.8574.36108.08110.26108.94109.58114.18117.37111.9 同比(%)35.50%40.24%21.78%15.27%11.67%7.22%5.65%6.45%2.71%營業(yè)總成本35.2642.9568.9987.3769.7576.3479.8888.5372.1營業(yè)成本28.3435.8757.2673.8158.1664.3564.9876.7160.67 同比(%)105.22%79.40%13.48%3.93%4.32%毛利潤30.5931.4139.0922.8939.1933.2434.328.84

11、39.8 同比(%)28.11%5.83%-12.25%25.99%1.56%毛利率(%)56.96%51.76%47.02%33.06%46.61%41.27%43.09%34.64%45.78%營業(yè)利潤30.5931.4140.3227.4844.1337.5338.9233.1244.32 同比(%)56.76%71.08%52.37%-6.19%27.28%7.06%-3.40%20.04%0.44%凈利潤22.9823.4630.4421.6334.1827.6830.1724.9734.17 同比(%)57.10%70.91%54.01%0.03%30.48%6.38%-0.77%

12、14.83%-0.01% 凈利率(%)34.90%31.55%28.17%19.62%31.37%25.26%26.42%21.27%30.54%EPS(元)0.17710.18080.23460.14550.22980.18620.20290.1680.2299ROE(%)5.21%5.27%7.43%4.58%5.89%4.73%5.13%4.05%5.29%ROA(%)3.43%3.48%3.68%2.20%3.45%2.81%3.12%2.65%3.61%經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈額/營收(%)31.07%80.69%41.48%39.79%14.69%43.69%43.02%32.45%10.00%七、估值估值比率2012-5-23 P=7.54201020112012E2013E收入增長率26.00%7.12%7.71%7.29%基本每