資產(chǎn)管理公司的狂歡結(jié)束了

1、FOCUS | EMEA9 July 2019Please refer to important information and MAR disclosures at the end of this reportEQUITY & DERIVATIVESParty time over for asset managers?KEY MESSAGESAsset management companies have had a strong rally since the start of the year, following the equity market rebound.In the near

2、-term, we believe equity markets are already pricing a lot of the good news while risks remain to the downside. We believe shorting asset managers stocks could be a good way to position for the same.Asset managers tend to be highly correlated to the economic cycle underperforming during the late- cy

3、cle as investors take risk off the table, resulting in outflows from funds.Regulatory pressure on margins of asset management companies are likely to stay. Popularity of ETFs has continued to grow despite liquidity concerns during times of market stress.Passive aggression: Since last August, we had

4、the asset management sector to underperform (see HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=376de7ee-da28-4e6f-94db-1cc028633cd3&docRef=98fc70e1-1585-4439-876d-b715efc5bd03&jobRef=72326d1c-ed23-43ec-aaf4-6a338637e4f9 Passiv HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=376de7ee-da28-4e6f-94db-1

5、cc028633cd3&docRef=98fc70e1-1585-4439-876d-b715efc5bd03&jobRef=72326d1c-ed23-43ec-aaf4-6a338637e4f9 e HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=376de7ee-da28-4e6f-94db-1cc028633cd3&docRef=98fc70e1-1585-4439-876d-b715efc5bd03&jobRef=72326d1c-ed23-43ec-aaf4-6a338637e4f9 aggression, 30 August 2018

6、). Since publication, selection of asset managers stocks underperformed global financials byc.1%.KEY MESSAGESAsset management companies have had a strong rally since the start of the year, following the equity market rebound.In the near-term, we believe equity markets are already pricing a lot of th

7、e good news while risks remain to the downside. We believe shorting asset managers stocks could be a good way to position for the same.Asset managers tend to be highly correlated to the economic cycle underperforming during the late- cycle as investors take risk off the table, resulting in outflows

8、from funds.Regulatory pressure on margins of asset management companies are likely to stay. Popularity of ETFs has continued to grow despite liquidity concerns during times of market stress.Asset managers underperformed significantly during the sell off of last year and have rallied back this Our BN

9、P Paribas Global Manager is now trading close to the levels where we initiated the trade in While prices are back to previous levels, ROE is still significantly down the corresponding period last year earnings momentum remainsnegative.We believe the rally amongst asset managers since the start of th

10、e year does not fully reflect the poor earnings trend of the sector. We, therefore, maintain our bearish view on this thematic basket (BNPPGAM1 Index for reference on Bloomberg).Race to the bottom: The asset management industry has continued to compete on price over the last year with the launch of

11、zero fee ETFs. Margin pressure andTRADE IDEAInvestors who agree with our view that global asset managers are likely to continue to profit headwinds, may shorting the Paribas Global Asset Manager Basket against being long MSCI World Financialsindex.Risk: The risk this relative value TRS trade theoret

12、ically Table 1: Quarterly performance of BNPP Global Asset Manager Basketsince launch in August 20182Q191Q194Q183Q18 SinceLaunchBNPPGAM1-18.3%-1.9%6.4%8.6%-13.7%-0.9%MSCI World Value2.7%10.4%-11.1%0.6%Sources: Bloomberg, BNP Paribascompetition has continued to put pressure on the margin trend. In ad

13、dition, poor performance active managers relative to benchmarks, have helped the move from active topassive.Fig. 1: More cyclical feature of asset managersSources: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas HYPERLINK / Ankit Gheedia CFA, Equity and Derivatives Strategist, BNP Paribas London Branch HYPERLINK / Edmund Sh

14、ing, Global Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy | BNP Paribas London Branch| FOCUS09/07/20191Fund flows are still poor despite market rallyIlliquid asset issue resurfaces: In the HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fu

15、nd-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ th HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ e HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ FC HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ A HYPERLINK /fca-

16、refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ has HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ refocuse HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ d HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-c

17、ompanies-limit/ o HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ n HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ th HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ e HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another

18、-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ issu HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ e HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ HYPERLINK /fca-

19、refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ illiqui HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ d HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ asset HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-

20、companies-limit/ s HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ bein HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ g HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ hel HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-an

21、other-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ d HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ in HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ UCIT HYPERLINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ S HYPER

22、LINK /fca-refuses-to-name-another-fund-breached-unquoted-companies-limit/ funds, following the suspension dealings in a leading equity income fund. This follows the mid-2016 suspension a of real estate funds, putting an unwelcome spotlight back on UK funds.US mutual funds no return to equities: Reca

23、ll that active fund managers, on generally charge higher management for equity funds than for bond, credit, or multi-assetfunds.Since the beginning of the year until there have been further outflows a cumulative USD49bn US equity mutual funds and ETFs combined, according to ICI (Fig. 4). This occurr

24、ed despite the impressive return in the MSCI World index so far this year and not bode for long-term earnings US asset managers.Clearly, retail investors are not, thus far, falling prey to the temptation to chase short-term momentum.While we expect assets under management to bounce back on the back

25、of market repricing in the short-term, helping fee income, the lack of inflows despite a buoyantmarket backdrop highlights the longer-term vulnerability of the industry to continued fee compressionETFs continue to take market According to ETF.com, year-to-date inflows into ETFs now totalUSD132.9bn.H

26、owever, with the collapse of long bond yields to new lows as central banks prepare to launch a new round of monetary easing, fixed-income ETFs have attracted more flows than equity funds over USD74bn since the beginning of 2019 until end-June versus USD58bn for equity ETFs.UK-based equity unit trust

27、s also seen outflows: The story in the UK is no for active fund managers. Despite the market rally, equity unit trusts as a class have continued to see outflows since the start of 2019 until May-end (Fig. 5), with investors favouring lower-fee fixed income funds over equity. was especially true over

28、 the key ISA season, income funds received nearly times the inflows of equity funds in April 2019. In contrast, equity funds for all UK unit trust inflows in April 2018, with income recording a smalloutflow.Fig. 2: ETF assets under management have benefited from exponential growth ($ trn)Sources: Bl

29、oomberg, BNP ParibasFig. 4: US equity funds see consistent outflows over 2019Fig. 3: Rise in ETF AUM, more than just performanceSources: Bloomberg, BNP ParibasFig. 5: UK equity unit trust flows remain negative50120003,0000-150Jan 18 Apr18Jul 18Oct 18 Jan 19 Apr19Jan18AprJul18Oct18Jan19Apr2,0001,0000

30、-1,000-2,000MSCI World index (rhs)ICI US cumulative equity mutual fund/ETF flows $bn (lhs)Sources: ICI, Bloomberg, BNP ParibasEquity unit trusts: cumulative flows m (rhs) All unit trusts: cumulative flows m (lhs)Sources: Investment Association, BNP Paribas HYPERLINK / Paribas London Branch HYPERLINK

31、 / Paribas London Branch | FOCUS09/07/2019 HYPERLINK / Edmund Shing HYPERLINK / Edmund Shing, Global Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy |BNP HYPERLINK / Table 2: Breakdown byregionFig. 6: Currency exposure RegionsMSCI WorldFinancialsDiffWestern Europe35%22%14%North America50%48%3%Eastern Europe0%1

32、%-1%Central Asia0%2%-2%South & Central America0%3%-3%Africa / Middle East0%3%-3%Asia Pacific14%22%-8%Sources: Bloomberg,BNPParibasSources: Bloomberg, BNPParibasFig. 7: The basket is traded at a premiumFig. 8: The basket is traded at a Price to book premiumSources: Bloomberg,BNPParibasSources: Bloomb

33、erg, BNPParibasFig. 9: The basket has a higher ROEvs.benchmarkFig. 10: but weakening earningsmomentumSources: Bloomberg,BNPParibasSources: Bloomberg, BNPParibasFig. 11: Factor exposure of global assetmanagers basketFig. 12: Risk contribution of the relative value tradeSources: Bloomberg,BNPParibasSo

34、urces: Bloomberg, BNPParibas HYPERLINK / Ankit Gheedia CFA, Equity and Derivatives Strategist, BNP HYPERLINK / Ankit Gheedia CFA, Equity and Derivatives Strategist, BNPParibas HYPERLINK / | 09/07/20193This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group o

35、f companies (collectively “BNPP”); it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis, and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report. This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the

36、 UK Financial Conduct Authority rules. For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) (MiFID II), non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication. This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II. It has not been prepared in

37、 accordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of investment research, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.The content in this document/communication may also contain “Research” as defined under the MiFID II unb

38、undling rules. If the document/communication contains Research, it is intended for those firms who are either in scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and have signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages, or firms that are out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and therefor

39、e not required to pay for Research under MiFID II. Please note that it is your firms responsibility to ensure that you do not view or use the Research content in this document if your firm has not signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages, except where your firm is out of scope o

40、f the MiFID II unbundlingrules.STEER is a trade mark of BNPP.MARKETS 360 is a trade mark of BNP ParibasThis document constitutes a marketing communication and has been prepared by BNPP for, and is directed at, (a) Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by the recast Markets in F

41、inancial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) (MiFID II), and (b) where relevant, persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, and at other persons to whom it ma

42、y lawfully be communicated (together “Relevant Persons”) under the regulations of any relevant jurisdiction. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not

43、 act or rely on this document or its content.Securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from, or are based on, public sources believed to be reliable, b

44、ut there is no guarantee of the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purpose of such information and such information may not have been independently verified by BNPP or by any person. None of BNPP, any of its subsidiary undertakings or affiliates or its members, directors, officers,

45、 agents or employees accepts any responsibility or liability whatsoever or makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy and completeness of the information or any opinions based thereon and contained in this document and it should not be relied upon as such.This docum

46、ent does not constitute or form any part of any offer to sell or issue and is not a solicitation of any offer to purchase any financial instrument, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on, in connection with any contract or investment decisi

47、on. To the extent that any transaction is subsequently entered into between the recipient and BNPP, such transaction will be entered into upon such terms as may be agreed by the parties in the relevant documentation.Information and opinions contained in this document are published for the informatio

48、n of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient, are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. In providing this document, B

49、NPP does not offer investment, financial, legal, tax or any other type of advice to, nor has any fiduciary duties towards, recipients. Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future performance, which may be better or worse than prior results. Any hypothetical, past performance simula

50、tions are the result of estimates made by BNPP, as of a given moment, on the basis of parameters, market conditions, and historical data selected by BNPP, and should not be used as guidance, in any way, of future performance. To the fullest extent permitted by law, no BNPP group company accepts any

51、liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on material contained in this document even where advised of the possibility of such losses. All estimates and opinions included in this document are made as of the date of this do

52、cument. Unless otherwise indicated in this document there is no intention to update thisdocument.BNPP may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of any issuer or person mentioned in this document or derivatives thereon. Prices, yields and other similar information in

53、cluded in this document are included for information purposes however numerous factors will affect market pricing at any particular time, such information may be subject to rapid change and there is no certainty that transactions could be executed at any specified price.BNPP may have a financial int

54、erest in any issuer or person mentioned in this document, including a long or short position in their securities and/or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon, or vice versa. BNPP, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an

55、advisory capacity for any person mentioned in this document. BNPP may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any person referred to in this d

56、ocument. BNPP may be a party to an agreement with any person relating to the production of this document. BNPP may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the analysis on which it was based, before the document was published. BNPP may receive or i

57、ntend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from or in relation to any person mentioned in this document. Any person mentioned in this document may have been provided with relevant sections of this document prior to its publication in order to verify its factu

58、al accuracy.This document is for information purposes only and there is no assurance that a transaction(s) will be entered into on such indicative terms. Any indicative price(s) contained herein have been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and calculation methods and

59、/or are based on or use available price sources where considered relevant. Indicative price(s) based on different models or assumptions may yield different results. Numerous factors may affect the price(s), which may or may not be taken into account. Therefore, these indicative price(s) may vary sig

60、nificantly from indicative price(s) obtained from other sources or market participants. BNPP expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of its own internal models or calculation methods, the accuracy or reliability of any price sources used, any errors or omissions in co