中國家電業(yè)：超越周期性-支持估值溢價的產(chǎn)品預(yù)優(yōu)化

1、April 3, 2019 09:00 PM GMTChina Home AppliancesApril 3, 2019 09:00 PM GMTBeyond Cyclicality: Product Premiumization Support a believepremiumizationwillbethemaingrowthdriverofhomeappliance salestheforeseeablefuture.Companieswithstrongpricingpowerand betterbrandportfolioswillbenefitfromthistrend.Upgra

2、deQingdaoHaier(ourpickamongA-sharecoverage).onMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniesinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,shouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof interestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.shouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingthei

3、rinvestmentdecision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesnotwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionson communicationswithasubj

4、ectpublicandsecuritiesheldbyaanalystaccount.ContributorsMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Lillian EquityAnalyst+852 2848-6502 HYPERLINK mailto:Lillian.Lou Lillian.LouMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Hanli Fan, CFAEquity Analyst+852 3963-1017 HYPERLINK mailto:Hanli.Fan Hanli.FanChina Home AppliancesWBeyond Cycl

5、icality: Product Premiumization Support a Webelievepremiumizationwillbethemaingrowthdriverofhome appliancesalestheforeseeablefuture.Companieswithpricingpowerandbetterbrandportfolioswillbenefitfromthistrend.UpgradeQingdaoHaier(ourpickamongA-sharecoverage). on IndustryViewChina/HongConsumer-In-LineExh

6、ibit 1:NewNewOldUS$mnNewOldRmbRatingMarketCapPT(Rmb)Close Price Upside/(downside)CompanyLarge appliance makers with established brand power in all markets can gain share and raise ASPs - Qingdao Haier is positioned:expectlargeappliancevolumegrowthratestostabi- lizebecauseofanalready-highpenetrationr

7、ate.Appliancecompany growthdriversarenowlikelytocomefrommarketsharegainsASP increases. have seen a rising contribution of saleshigh-ASP products, such as inverter ACs and front-loadingwashing machines,whichare1.6xand2.6xmoreexpensive,respectively,than traditional models. Moreover, internet-connected

8、 smart appliances aregainingpopularityanddrivingupgrades.believeQingdao Haieristhekeybeneficiaryofthepremiumizationtrend,backedby thestrongpricingpowerofitssevenestablishedbrandsinChinaand, globally,ahighlevelofdirectcontroloverchannelsandearlyadvantageinthepremiumcategoryandsmartappliancesetup.smal

9、l appliances, we believe companies that can expand cate- gories and upgrade brand portfolios will enjoy sustainable growth. Thestructuralgrowthoftheindustryisdrivenbyhouseholddisposableincome,arisingpenetrationrate,andbrand/ categorypremiumization.believeSuporisthekeybeneficiary. Suporhasstronginter

10、nalR&DcapabilitiesandcanleveragepremiumbrandsfromGroupeInthelongterm,weexpectSupor tobuildupastrongbrandportfoliowithsupportfromQingdaoHaierOWEW16,23820.815.017.916%SuporOWOW9,21284.072.475.312%Source: Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Priced as at April 3, 2019.Exhibit

11、 2:Key metrics - valuation, earnings growth, and ROEROEROE19e19e P/E 20eP/E20eP/E19e20eTradingPTImpliedEarningsgrowthCompanyQingdaoHaier13.4x11.3x13.0 x16%18%20%Supor29.7x23.9x26.7x23%23%31% Source: Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Priced as at April 3, 2019.upgrade Qi

12、ngdao Haier to Overweight and OverweightonSupor.raiseourQingdaoHaierpricetargettoRmb20.8,implying15.3x/13.0 x2019/2020P/Es(earningsCAGR17%in2018-20e).raiseourSuporpricetarget16%,toimplying33.1x/26.7x2019/2020P/Es(earningsCAGRof24%2018-20e). risks include: Competition in mid-low range uctswithseasona

13、lpricediscountsandnewentrants(especiallyinthe smallappliancecategory);andinvestmentinbrandingmayslowthe overallpaceofmarketshareandmarginexpansion.ContentsChartsOrder ofPreferenceInvestmentSummary12Premiumization of HomeAppliances20 QingdaoHaierClearBrandMatrixandFirst- moverinSmartHomeAppliances27S

14、uporSupportfromSEBinPremiumizationFinancialSummary:QingdaoHaier(600690.SS)Financial Summary: Supor(002032.SZ)RiskReward:QingdaoHaier(600690.SS)Risk Reward: Supor(002032.SZ)Key ChartsExhibit 3:ChinahomeappliancesretailmarketsizeExhibit 4:Air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines ex-factor

15、y ASPWhite goods7%KitchenWhite goods7%Kitchenappliances4%Smallappliances10%8101,0648188199069966166601,0000CAGR2018-2022E20152016201720182019E 2020E 2021E 2022EWhitegoodsKitchenappliancesSmallapplianceschange20112012201320142015201120122013201420152016AirconditionerRefrigeratorWashingmachineRmb/unit

16、 4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500 3,380 3,104 2,683 2,206 1,803 1,360 1,415 1,08720141,10020151,16120161,26220172018E2019E2020EAirconditionerRefrigeratorWashingmachine1,3011,5991,6712,0862,3542,4962,4722,8052,8613,215Source: AVC, Morgan Stanley Research, e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates.E

17、xhibit 5:QingdaoHaierrefrigeratorsandwashingmachinesaverageRSPtrend. QingdaoHaieraverageRSPwastrendingupandwasaboutindustry average.Rmb/unitSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research, e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Exhibit 6:Suporrevenuegrowthishigherthanglobalpremiumpeers,Smith and Groupe

18、SEB.30%22%30%22%23%23%20%14%12%8%10%6% 5%12%6%5%6%5%6%1%30%5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,500Refrigerators201620172018Washing machines20162017201825%20%15%10%5%0%20152016A.O. Smith201720182019E2020EGroupeSEBSuporHaierMideaIndustry averageSource: CMM, Morgan Stanley Research.Source: Company dat

19、a, Morgan Stanley Research. For Supor, e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. ForA.O. Smith and Groupe SEB, e = Refinitiv consensus.Exhibit 7:2018EQingdao HaierSuporMideaGreeNon-cyclical revenue115,71017,85195,85730,35215.0Total revenue180,95817,851261,903200,463Non-cyclical %64%2018EQingdao HaierSu

20、porMideaGreeNon-cyclical revenue115,71017,85195,85730,35215.0Total revenue180,95817,851261,903200,463Non-cyclical %64%100%37%15%Non-cyclical revenue31,6515,50922,9304,46710.0Total GP54,0835,50971,05762,304Non-cyclical %59%100%32%7%5.02018-2020e revenue CAGR11%21%8%6%2018-2020e eranings CAGR17%24%13%

21、6%Source: Company data, e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. 2018A for Supor.Exhibit 8:Qingdao Haier and Midea relative P/E valuation16%-10%16%-10%-Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18QingdaoHaier/Midea(%)Midea (LHS)QingdaoHaier(LHS)AverageSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research.120%100%80%60%40%20%0

22、%-20%MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH5Order of PreferenceExhibit 9:Home appliances Order of preferenceQingdao HaierSuporViomiHaier ElectronicsMideaRobamGreeVatti600690.SS002032.SZVIOT.O1169.HK000333.SZ002508.SZ000651.SZ002035.SZRatingOWOWOWOWEWEWUWUWTrading CurrencyCNYCNYUSDHKDCNYCNYCNYCNYPrice Target20.884.01

23、2.925.043.925.533.29.8Current Price17.975.311.547.215.9Upside/(Downside) (%)16%12%12%3%-16%-26%-30%-38%Market Cap (in USD mm)17,1978,9517948,64050,5604,85442,2482,087Avg Daily Traded Vol (in USD mm88.714.02.316.0235.042.2332.026.6Street View: RatingsBuy/Overweight| 90% | 91% | 75% |87%| 77% | 67% |

24、68% | 70%Hold/Equal-weight| 10%| 9%0%0%| 19%| 33%| 23%| 10%Sell/Underweight0%0%| 25%| 13%| 4%0%| 9%| 20%Bull Case Value25.0118.217.939.958.938.053.017.3Upside (%)40%57%56%65%13%10%12%9%Bear Case Value10.550.06.116.527.716.426.14.2Downside (%)-41%-34%-47%-32%-47%-52%-45%-74%Risk/Reward Skew1.00.1Morg

25、an Stanley Estimates FY19eCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYSales198,28121,9245,27791,724276,1118,111200,1406,262EBITDA14,2402,4415054,92029,8711,67033,485830EBIT11,6992,3065024,32325,1251,57230,804771EPS1.212.546.571.523.431.664.660.83FY20eSales224,67626,2769,365102,907307,4349,094223,3276,894EBITDA16,8403,0

26、099195,82434,3761,84436,083940EBIT14,0322,8659115,12729,3381,74033,123875EPS1.603.1511.731.774.001.855.020.95FY19 MSe vs. Consensus MeanSales0.8%4.6%4.0%0.2%-2.1%-1.9%2.1%-10.2%EBITDA-5.1%2.5%27.2%-7.2%-1.0%-9.8%0.8%-12.9%EBIT-2.2%-2.4%6.0%-9.8%-1.2%-10.6%0.1%-7.9%EPS0.2%3.0%33.8%0.0%-1.4%-6.5%-2.0%

27、-8.4%FY20 MSe vs. Consensus MeanSales4.2%7.4%9.8%5.0%-1.2%1.4%4.0%-13.3%EBITDA-1.0%5.7%41.0%-3.4%-0.4%-7.2%-0.4%-16.8%EBIT5.0%1.5%6.7%-6.3%0.7%-6.1%0.1%-11.5%EPS3.8%6.8%42.8%4.2%0.9%-5.0%-4.1%-12.9%Valuation Multiples at Last Close FY19eP/E13.4x28.9x11.7x13.6x15.2x20.7x10.1x19.2xEV/EBIT9.6x25.0 x8.3

28、x10.0 x11.9x18.1x4.6x16.1xEV/EBITDA7.9x23.7x8.2x8.8x10.0 x17.0 x4.3x14.9xEV/Sales0.6x2.6x0.8x0.5x1.1x3.5x0.7x2.0 xFCF Yield9.6%3.0%5.9%5.0%5.8%4.4%12.5%5.1%FY20eP/E11.3x23.3x6.6x11.7x13.0 x18.6x9.4x16.8xEV/EBIT7.6x19.9x3.9x7.8x9.9x15.8x3.9x13.6xEV/EBITDA6.3x18.9x3.9x6.9x8.4x14.9x3.6x12.6xEV/Sales0.5

29、x2.2x0.4x0.4x0.9x3.0 x0.6x1.7xFCF Yield11.3%3.9%11.1%6.7%8.3%5.2%9.9%5.7%Implied Multiples on MS Price Target FY19eP/E15.3x33.1x13.2x14.1x12.8x15.3x7.1x11.8xEV/EBIT11.1x28.9x9.6x10.4x9.7x12.7x1.9x9.1xEV/EBITDA9.1x27.3x9.5x9.2x8.2x12.0 x1.8x8.4xEV/Sales0.7x3.0 x0.9x0.5x0.9x2.5x0.3x1.1xFY20eP/E13.0 x2

30、6.7x7.4x12.1x11.0 x13.8x6.6x10.4xEV/EBIT10.7x27.2x7.5x13.4x11.5x16.7x7.3x12.3xEV/EBITDA8.9x25.9x7.4x11.8x9.8x15.8x6.7x11.4xEV/Sales0.7x3.0 x0.7x0.7x1.1x3.2x1.1x1.6xStock Price Performance1 Month6%13%2%-1%7%36%3%46%3 Month35%52%50%30%44%74%31%87%1 Year5%69%27%-12%-1%-4%2%-10%YTD31%40%48%26%42%70%32%8

31、0%Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Investment SummaryInthisreportweexaminethepremiumizationtrenddriving thegrowthoflargeandsmallappliancesanddiscussleadingcompanieslikeQingdaoHaierandSuporcanture theopportunity.Large appliances - Qingdao

32、 (600690.SS; OW)largeappliances,short-termvolumegrowthisbeingaffectedby the cyclicality of the property market, while we believe volume growth will remain stable at 2% annually ( Exhibit 1 ). Therefore,companiesearningsgrowthwillbedrivenbyASPsionandoperationalefficiencyimprovement.preferQingdao Haie

33、rinlargeappliancessector.QingdaoHaiersstrongpositionpremiumbrand(Casarte)anditsinitiativetoimproveefficiencyascuttingSKUandsettingupChinaBusinessUnit)willassistcompanytodeliverycontinuousrevenuegrowthandmarginexpan- sion.upgradeQingdaoHaiertoOverweightandraiseourLeveragingCasarte,QingdaoHaier,webeli

34、eve,hasthebestposition inChinaspremiumwhitegoodssegment.Moreover,ASPriserefrigeratorsandwashingmachinesishigherthaninairconditioners. Longerterm,aslargeappliancesvolumegrowthisheadingintoa stable stage, Qingdao Haiers strong position in premiumshould enable it to continuously deliver stable revenue

35、growth, driven by the premiumizationtrend.expectQingdaoHaiertocontinuetodeliverGPMexpansionon thebackofpremiumization.WhilebothQingdaoHaierandexperiencedmargindilutioneventsin2016/2017(QingdaoHaiers acquisitionofGEA,andMideasacquisitionofKUKA),QingdaoHaiers GPMexpansionshouldbehigherthanMideasthroug

36、hacomplete cycle.expectQingdaoHaiertodeliverearningsgrowthaccelera- tion in 2019/2020e, but anticipate Mideas earnings growth will deceleratein2019e.Mideasearningsgrowthreboundin2020ebedrivenbyrecoveryintheACmarket,whichisacyclicalrecovery in ourview.targettoRmb20.8.Exhibit11:Revenue and gross profi

37、t exposure to non-cyclical productsTotal revenue180,958261,903200,463lowestairconditionerexposureamongthelargeappliancecompa-Non-cyclical %64%37%15%nies.Inaddition,airconditioners,kitchenappliancesandautomationTotal revenue180,958261,903200,463lowestairconditionerexposureamongthelargeappliancecompa-

38、Non-cyclical %64%37%15%nies.Inaddition,airconditioners,kitchenappliancesandautomationNon-cyclical revenue31,65122,9304,467productsarecyclicalsegments.QingdaoHaierislessexposedtocyc-Total GPNon-cyclical%54,08359%71,05732%62,3047%2018EQingdao HaierMideaGreeNon-cyclicalrevenue115,71095,85730,352licalit

39、ythanitspeers( HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Exhibit HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 11).Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research, e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Note: Under our definition, air conditioners, kitchen appliances, and automation products are cyclical.Exhibit 10:Large appliances: We expect

40、 a 2018-22 volume CAGR of 2%9%9%9%9%-5%-5%200.0150.0100.050.00.0200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%AirconditionersRefrigeratorsWashingmachinesyoygrowthSource: .IOL, Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 12:GPMexpa

41、nsionofQingdaoHaierandMidea32.6%31.8%32.6%31.8%30.8%25.3%28.0%23.3%36.0%Gree GPM: down by 0.8ppts from 2013-Exhibit 13:EarningsgrowthforecastsforQingdaoHaierandMidea25%21%18%34.0%32.0%30.0%28.0%26.0%24.0%22.0%2020eQingdao Haier GPM: up by 5.5ppts from 2013-2020eMidea GPM: up by 4.7 ppts from 2013-20

42、20e.20%15%10%5%0%17%7%16%10%4%16%8%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020EQingdaoHaierMideaGreeSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research.ThekeymarketconcernonQingdaoHaierisitshighSG&Acosts. Qingdao Haier has lower net margin than Midea, though GPMhigherthanMidea.costsandexpenses,QingdaoHaierh

43、asiniti- atedthefollowingstrategies.First,thecompanyaimstocutcurrent2018E2019E2020EQingdaoHaierMideaGreeSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research, e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Exhibit 14:Qingdao Haier and Midea domestic refrigerator sales volume and Haiers market sharemn unitsSKUs in ha

44、lf during 2019-2020. This plan should significantly improveoperationalefficiency.Second,QingdaoHaierispromoting bundledsalesbyincorporatingmoreappliancesintoonesalesparticularlysmartappliances,whereconsumerscangetconnectivityamongappliances.ThisenablesQingdaoHaiertomore money on sellingexpenses.7060

45、504030201002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201832.0%31.0%30.0%29.0%28.0%27.0%26.0%25.0%24.0%ValuationInthelargeappliancessegment,thestockpricesofRobam,Midea, Gree,andQingdaoHaierhaveralliedarespective73%/41%/32%/31% YTD(Exhibit8).QindaoHaieriscurrentlytradingat13.5x2019eP/ E,belowMideas15.1x

46、.ForeignfundflowsfavorGree,Midea,andHaierMideaOthersHaier market share(RHS)Source: IOL, Morgan Stanley Research.Exhibit 15:Qingdao Haier and Midea domestic washing machine sales volume and Haiers market sharemn unitsRobamoverQingdaoHaier,asQingdaoHaierhasalowernetmarginandROEthantheotherthreenames.M

47、oreover,the market appears to be trading based on a property rebound(aswhatwehaveobservedGreeandRobam,whichhighexposuretopropertymarketcycle).LessexposuretoairtionersandkitchenappliancesgiveQingdaoHaierlessexposureto thepropertymarket,andthusithaslaggedintherecentshare504030201002010 2011 2012 2013

48、2014 2015 2016 2017 201836.0%35.0%34.0%33.0%32.0%31.0%30.0%performance.Aftertherecentrally,thesharepriceofQingdaoismoreresilientthanMideaandGree.Comparing the valuations of Qingdao Haier and Midea,HaiertradedatapremiumtoMideafromJan14toNov16duringthe previousdowncycleinhomeappliances.SinceNov16,Qing

49、daohastradedatadiscounttoMidea(Exhibit9).Thevaluationdiscount wasdrivenby:(1)cyclicalupturninthehomeapplianceindustry2017and1H18;and(2)MideasacquisitionofKUKA,whichboostedmultiple.expectQingdaoHaiersvaluationdiscounttonarroworHaierMideaOthersHaier market share(RHS)Source: IOL, Morgan Stanley Researc

50、h.disappearinthelongtermbecause:(1)QingdaoHaierwilldeliver betterearningsgrowththanMidea;and(2)MideasKUKAbusinessentering into an automation downcycle and will likely disappoint marketexpectations.believe Qingdao Haier, with its balanced product portfolio,is betterpositionedthantheotherlargeapplianc

51、escompanies.expectQingdaoHaiertodeliverstablerevenuegrowth,andwesee clearstrategiesthecompanytocontinuetoimproveASPandeffi- ciencies. expect its net margin to expand to 4.4%/4.5% in 2019/2020,delivering12%/18%yoyearningsgrowthinraiseourQingdaoHaierPTtoRmb20.8,implying13.0 x2020e P/E.expectthemacroec

52、onomytobottomoutin2Q19.Though home appliance fundamentals lag behind the macro re-ratingshouldoccurbeforefundamentalsbottomout.ThetargetP/Eis1STDaboveQingdaoHaiershistoricalaverage,and,believe, is warranted, given our view that Qingdao Haier isdefensivethansomepeersbecauseofitslowerexposuretoairtion

53、ers and better positioning premiumization.GivenHaierElectronics(1169.HK,QingdaoHaierssubsidiary)results and weak management guidance 2019,remainmutedin4Q18and1Q19.Readingthroughtheseresults,expectQingdaoHaiers4Q18earningstogrowatamid-singledigit ratevs.thehigh-teensrateindicatedbyconsensusdata.Theva

54、luation,buoyedbyrecentstrengthinthesegment,couldbetivelyaffectedbyweaknessinfinancialresults,butweratetheshares andwouldtakeadvantageofanypotentialsharepricedips.Exhibit 16:Qingdao Haier and Midea historical relative P/E valuations16%-10%16%-10%15.010.05.0-Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18QingdaoHaier/

55、Midea(%)Midea (LHS)QingdaoHaier(LHS)AverageSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research.120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%Exhibit 17:Qingdao Haier and Gree historical relative P/E valuations24%20.024%15.010.05.00.0Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19QingdaoHaier/Gree(%)Gree (L

56、HS)QingdaoHaier(LHS)AverageSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research.120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%Exhibit 18:YTDsharepriceperformanceofhomeappliancestocksunderover coverageExhibit 19:Historical P/E band of Qingdao HaierP/E (X)-NTMQingdaoHaier80%60%40%20%0%VattiRobamViomiSuporMideaGreeHaierHaier Electr

57、onics68%68%67%48%43%41%32%29%33%22%86CSI3009.3x11.2x13.1x9.3x11.2x13.1xNov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18Feb-19Average+ 1SD- 1SDSource: Refinitiv, priced as at Apr 3, 2019. Morgan Stanley Researc

58、h.Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research.Exhibit 20:Historical P/E band of GreeP/E (X)-NTM6.6x8.6x6.6x8.6x10.6x14131211109876Nov-13 Feb-14 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18Feb-19Average+ 1SD

59、- 1SDExhibit 21:Historical P/E band of MideaP/E (X)-NTM8.1x11.0 x8.1x11.0 x13.8x181614121086Nov-13 Feb-14 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18Feb-19Average+ 1SD- 1SDSource: Refinitiv, Morgan

60、 Stanley Research.Small appliances - Supor (002032.SZ; OW)smallappliances,weexpectlong-termsalesgrowthof10%ally(Exhibit2),withtheaddedopportunityofgrowingthroughnew productcategories.PremiumsmallappliancebrandshaveverypenetrationinChina.Productupgradesandbrandportfoliomanage- mentarethekeyfactorspre