美股投行Q4季度監(jiān)測：年關(guān)低落；前景黯淡

1、10 January 2019Investment Banking Monitor QuarterlyInvestment Banking Monitor QuarterlyQ4 2018: Year finished on a low; outlook grimEQUITIESCAPITAL MARKETSOur Q4 IB to EQUITIESCAPITAL MARKETSFICC We IB to to FICC: concerns over credit/securitisation and Asian macro productsOur proprietary database a

2、nd management guidance point to a slower Q4 for FICC (c.-10%YoY).Thisisversustheeasycomparatives(Q42017FICC-24%YoY)aswe expect that lower credit and securitisation issuance combined with flattening yield curves weighed negatively. Rates likely benefited from higher volumes, but this was likely neutr

3、alised by low volatility and flat yield curve. Credit trading volumes should have fallen in line with lower issuance, but the worrying data point, in our view, remains the reduction in securitisation issuance (CDO, ABS). Volatility in EMG marketsmayhaveledtoone-offlossesinhedgesandinventories.Equiti

4、es: resilient but with slowing primeWe estimate equities trading revenue growth to have been flat to +5% y-o-y in Q4. Cash equities were generally mixed on lower markets but higher volumes. Equity derivatives,excludingstructuredderivativesinEMG,havebeenhealthy.However,we expect that prime brokerage

5、growth continued to decelerate in line with the markets performances towardsyear-end.Primary issuance: Broad weakness, mainly in DCM/ECM offset by M&A Dealogic data suggest weak primary revenues with very weak DCM, Syndicated Lending and ECM offset by M&A. This supports managements comments that dea

6、lswereshelvedduringtheQ4turbulence.Overall,weexpectthattherevenuedeclineto be about 10%y-o-y.We forecast 2% 2018 IB revenue growth; 2019 outlook is less positiveDue to the slow Q4, reduce our 2018 IB revenues estimate to 2% from 3% a 13% for equity due to the H1 For Q4, webelievebanksnotgearedtocred

7、itproductsorAsiafaredbetter(referto4for our detailed Looking into 2019, believe that IB suffer as equitiesmaybelessduetoslowingthiscouldbe partiallyoffsetthroughhigherinvolatilitydrivensuchasAlevizos Alevizakos*Global Banks Equity Analyst HSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:alevizos.alevizakos alevizos.a

8、levizakos+44 20 7005 8722Chris Mallin*Global Head, Banks Equity ResearchHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:chris.mallin chris.mallin+44 20 7991 7419Robin Down* AnalystHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:robin.down robin.down+44 20 7991 6926Kiri Vijayarajah* Global Banks Analyst HSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto

9、:kiri.vijayarajah kiri.vijayarajah+44 20 7005 8621Johannes Thormann* AnalystHSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG HYPERLINK mailto:johannes.thormannhsbc.de johannes.thormannhsbc.de+49 211 910 3017Salman Khan*Global Banks Equity Analyst HSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:salman.a.khan salman.a.khan+44 20 7999 315

10、8Nigel Fletcher*Financials & FinTech Equity Analyst HSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:nigel.fletcher nigel.fletcher+44 20 7992 0985Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read w

11、ith the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: HSBC BankplcView HSBC Global Researchat: HYPERLINK / Year finished on a low; outlook grimOur Q4 IB to FICC to We IB to or Exhibit 1: Q4 2018 reporting cale

12、ndarBanksTickerHSBC ratingQ4 2018 reporting dateEU IBsBarclaysBARC.LNBuy21/02/2019Credit SuisseCSGN.SWBuy14/02/2019Deutsche BankDBK.GRHold01/02/2019UBSUBSG.SWBuy21/01/2019EUwholesaleBNP ParibasBNP.FPHold06/02/2019Credit Agricole S.A.ACA.FPBuy14/02/2019CommerzbankCBK.GYHold14/02/2019HSBCHSBA.LNN/R19/

13、02/2019NatixisKN.FPBuy12/02/2019Royal Bank of ScotlandRBS.LNHold15/02/2019Societe GeneraleGLE.FPBuy07/02/2019Julius BaerBAER.SWHold04/02/2019USbanksBank of AmericaBAC.USN/R16/01/2019CitigroupC.USBuy14/01/2019Goldman SachsGS.USHold16/01/2019JP MorganJPM.USHold15/01/2019Morgan StanleyMS.USHold17/01/20

14、19Wells FargoWFC.USN/R15/01/2019Inter-dealerbrokersTP ICAPTCAP.LNBuy19/03/2019BGC PartnersBGCP.USN/R08/02/2019Virtu FinancialVIRT.USN/R07/02/2019N/R = not ratedSource: Company data, HSBC estimatesForecasts for market and bank performance Q4 2018Our IB aims to bank revenue aheadofthequarterPurpose of

15、 our monitorOur quarterly IB monitor aims to forecast the impact of different market indicators on the revenue generation for IB product lines during the quarter. We record the performance of market indicators, such as indices, volumes and volatility, and then analyse their impact on fixed income, e

16、quities and primary issuance for the global banks ahead of their quarterlyreporting.For our analysis, we use the product terminology and data indicated in Exhibit 2.Exhibit 2: Product terminologyAsset classCategoryProductsFICCG10 ratesinterest rates swaps, swaptions, repurchase agreements, sovereign

17、 bonds, moneymarketsCreditcorporate debt trading (high yield and investment grade), distressed and exoticsForeign exchange (FX)futures, forwards, options and spot exchange rateSecuritisation(ABS), mortgage-backed (RMBS), debt (CDO), (CMO),US agency & non-agencyEmerging markets (EM)rates, credit, for

18、eign exchange and securitisationCommoditiessoft & agriculturals, base & precious metals, energy, exoticsPublic financemunicipal finance, state financeEquitiesCash equitiestrading, research, block salesDerivativesequity linked, retail structured, vanilla, flow, exotic, convertiblesPrime brokeragesecu

19、rity financing, security lending, delta hedging, clearingPrimariesDCMdebt capital markets/underwritingLoan syndicationinvestment grade and high yield loansECMequity capital markets, initial public offering, rights issues and other add-onsM&Amerger and acquisitionsSource: HSBC, CoalitionQ4 2018 forec

20、asts market and investment banks performancesOur proprietary IB model (Exhibit 3) implies -5% to -10% YoY IB revenues for Q4 2018. Our expectations for performances per product can be seen in Exhibit 3.Exhibit 3: Q3 2018 expected YoY performances by IB productProduct typeProduct lineForecast Q4 2018

21、 performance (YoY)FICCRatesNeutral/WeakCreditWeakSecuritisation (structured products)WeakFXNeutral/StrongEmerging markets macroWeakCommoditiesVery StrongTotal FICCWeakEquitiesCashNeutralDerivativesNeutral/StrongPrime brokerageNeutral/StrongTotal EquityNeutral/StrongPrimariesECMWeakDCMWeakM&AStrongSy

22、ndicated loansWeakTotal IB feesWeakOverallTotalWeak (-5% to -10%)Source: HSBC estimatesOur IB revenue forecasts for the banks under our coverage are summarised in Exhibit 4. Note that we estimate flat -7% revenues for the banks under our coverage and expect a rangeof -5% to -10% for the market overa

23、ll.Exhibit 4: Estimated global IB Q4 2018 performance (%) (in local currency) YoYBankFICCEquitiesIB FeesTotal IB*Citigroup-10%4%-7%-7%JP Morgan-10%2%-6%-2%Goldman Sachs10%16%-12%1%Morgan Stanley-10%3%-9%-7%UBS-10%-4%-9%-7%Credit Suisse-21%-13%-13%-15%Deutsche Bank-15%-20%-9%-14%Barclays-5%15%-14%-4%

24、BNP Paribas-9%0%Societe Generale-7%-3%Arithmetic Average-9%1%-10%-7%Note: *Total includes the aggregate of FICC, Equities and IB fees, excluding financing and other sales and trading revenues when they are separately reported. Changes are in local currency. Source: Company data, HSBCExhibit 4b: FX a

25、nd markets box4Q18 FXRates Markets CHF:USDGBP:USDEUR:USDMSCI WLDMSCI EURMSCI USMSCI EMGPeriod-end3Q181.01641.30421.15782,1881292,7851,0464Q181.01341.26281.13941,8531132,328950Change (%)-0.3%-3.2%-1.6%-15.3%-12.7%-16.4%-9.3%Quarterly AverageYoY (%)-0.9%-3.2%-3.2%-2.4%-8.7%3.3%-13.2%QoQ (%)Source: HSB

26、C, Bloomberg-1.1%-1.4%-1.9%-6.9%-7.1%-5.8%-7.3%Selected management commentary for Q4 2018A number of banks gave some guidance for Q4 2018, suggesting generally weaker FICC trading revenues YoY, mainly in rates and credit, with lower primary markets on the back of weaker ECM, DCM and leveraged financ

27、e. Equities remained resilient on increased volatility despite sequentially lower AUM in the prime brokerage business. As a reference point, Q4 2017 was 9% lower vs Q2 2016 with FICC trading 24% lower and equities trading 3% lower. This offset by 13% higher IB fee revenue. Morgan Stanley (Ted Pick,

28、Head of Institutional Securities Group, 6 November): Mr. Pick said that October was “bumpy” with a large number of IPOs postponed. In the trading business, volatility had some impact on client behaviour with de-risking and with equities beingmoreactivecomparedwithweakerfixedincome.Mr.Pickalsoaddedso

29、meinteresting comments about MiFiD II, suggesting that despite lower advisory revenues, larger players are the “winners” but also boutiques with specialised services could also be “winners”. The middle ground will be “tough”, hesaid. (John Gerspach, CFO, 5 2018): Citi said that in Q4, were negative

30、for FICC and IB fees perform very Citi identified rates as an area of that FX activity may have also been Overall, Mr. Gerspach said that combined FICC and equities be slightly down YoY.RegardingIBfees,M&AtobeYoY,butIGDCMweakerandECM equally under The in should be partially offsetbystrongernamelyban

31、kingand JP Morgan (Jamie Dimon, CEO, 4 December 2018): Q4 trading revenues were expected to be flat and “roughly equivalent” to last year. Credit Suisse (Investor Day, 12 December 2018): During its investor day, Credit Suisse saidthatinAsia,thefourthquarterwas“oneoftheworstquarters”inthepast10yearsw

32、ith a10-yearlowactivityinECMandstructuredproductsrevenuesdownc50%YoY.As a final point, we witnessed that the increased volatility has been responsible for some reportedone-offtradinglosses(especiallyinAsiawheremoveshavebeenmorefundamental). WebelievethatsimilarannouncementscouldbeincludedduringtheQ4

33、results: a FX is to in Natixis (Reuters, 18 December 2018): Reuters reported that Natixis will book EUR260m in losses relating to its Asian stock derivative operations due to “a deficient hedging strategy”.2018e revenue expectations; equities pushing everything higherFor2018,wenowexpectthatIBrevenue

34、sgrewby2%(vs3%inOctober)(Exhibit5a),whichis 1%lowerfromourOctoberforecasttocaptureworse-than-expectedQ4FICCandprimaryfees, especially in rates, credit, DCM and ECM. We forecast that FICC will be 2% lower than 2017 (previouslyflat)butthatequities(+13%,vs+14%previously)increasedmateriallyvs2017.Primar

35、ies should drop 2% YoY (unchanged) due to the slowdown in DCM.Per product, we see the largest increases in EQD (+20%), prime brokerage (+11%) and commodities(+7%).Onthenegativeside,DCM(-7%)andsecuritisation(-5%)shouldhave produced lower revenuesy-o-y.Exhibit 5a: 2018 IB revenue growth y-o-y (%) per

36、product class9% 9%14%13%3%2% 2%0%-2%3% 3% 3%2%2%0% -1%-2% -2%FICCEquitiesIBfees12-Apr04-Jun09-Jul05-Oct08-JanSource: HSBC estimatesExhibit 5b: 2018 IB revenue growth y-o-y (%) per product category20%11%20%11%13%7%3%3%0%0%-2%-4%-2%-2%-5%-4%Rates Credit FX Secur. EM Comm. Total Cash EQDPBTotalFICCEqui

37、ties-7%DCM ECM M&A TotalIB fees20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Source: HSBC estimatesMarket snapshot Q4 2018For equities, we expect flat+5% y-o-y in Q4 revenues as comparatives are not challenging and tailwinds in prime brokerage stillappearEquities and equity derivatives (EQD) trading (Exhibit 6)In Q4 to to it

38、 in H1 to to Q4 toin In terms of products: Cash Equities should have been resilient as the global indices correction led to decent trading volumes. We expect that market consolidation continued due to new regulation and increasing technology important. Equity Derivatives were likely stronger y-o-y,

39、boosted by increased underlying volatility and investors need for hedging. However, it is likely that this positive impact was concentrated to flow derivatives and mainly in the US. We expect that structured derivatives (especially in Asia) continued to be weak as clients appetites remained morelimi

40、ted. Prime Brokerage index was negative q-o-q and y-o-y. Prime Brokerage is an “asset management” business. As such, it is the most “predictable” business within equities trading. Therefore, the revenues likely continued to be up y-o-y in line with assets under management (AUM) albeit at a much smal

41、ler percentage compared with previous periods. As margins continue to be under pressure and AUM are starting to decline, prime brokerage revenues could reduce in1H19.Exhibit 6: Equities metrics monitor, Q4201841%40%41%40%33%33%22%13%11%50%1%1%-6%-8%-6% -2%-6%-14%-14%-12%QoQ (%)YoY (%)YoY (%)QoQ (%)E

42、QUITIESEQD &PB25%0%-25%MSCIMSCIWorldIndex S&P500index MSCI EMG MSCI EUIndexS&P VolatilityIndex(VIX) Vstoxx Eurozone Volatility Index(V2X)SPX & VIXIndexproducts HK Hang SengADVVolumes S&P 500ADVVolumes NASDAQ ADVVolumesDaxADVVolumes Nikkei 225ADVVolumes ShanghaiADVVolumes CBOE EQD(ADV)CME Group EQDvo

43、lumes ICE EQD EU volumes EUREX EQD volumes Euronext EQDvolumesGlobal Hedge FundIndexSource: Bloomberg, CBOE, CME Group, ICE, Euronext, HSBC calculationsFICC was likely down 10%, on our estimates, from a low base on weakness in credit, securitisation and EM FICC Trading (Exhibits 7-9)We expect that F

44、ICC products were down vs a weak Q4 2017 (-c24% y-o-y) with very weak credit and securitisation. Macro (FX and rates) should have been stable y-o-y for developed markets, but EM likely saw lower revenues. Commodities had a better year vs a very low base with volatility helping in oil and natural gas

45、 offset by weaker performance in iron ore. We forecast FICC revenues to be down c10% y-o-y. Rates should have been broadly stable (vs very weak comparatives) as higher rates derivative volumes (both listed and OTC) were offset by flattening yield curves. Margin pressure likely continued as products

46、keep migrating to exchanges for clearing purposes.Exhibit 7: Rates metrics monitor, Q4 2018 (%)116%37%116%37%39%19%24%15%18%12%15% 16%-1%-12%-25%YoY (%)QoQ (%)RATES110%90%70%50%30%10%-10%Municipal trading (ADV)Treasury trading (ADV)CMEG - US Treasuries (ADV)CMEG - Total (ADV)FIA SEF (ADV)ICE - Inter

47、est rates derivatives (ADV)CMEG - Interest rates volumesLSEG - Interest rate value-tradedLSEG - MTS Repo value-tradedEUREX - Interest Rates volumesMove Index (volatility)US Libor 3-MUS Swap 2YR vs 10YREU Swap 2YR vs 10YR-30%Municipal trading (ADV)Treasury trading (ADV)CMEG - US Treasuries (ADV)CMEG

48、- Total (ADV)FIA SEF (ADV)ICE - Interest rates derivatives (ADV)CMEG - Interest rates volumesLSEG - Interest rate value-tradedLSEG - MTS Repo value-tradedEUREX - Interest Rates volumesMove Index (volatility)US Libor 3-MUS Swap 2YR vs 10YREU Swap 2YR vs 10YRSource: ICAP, SIFMA, LSEG, CME Group, Eurex

49、, Bloomberg, FIA SEF, HSBC calculationsas the HY was by and FX notto Credit trading should have been very negative (remember this excludes securitisation) given that volumes for the more profitable HY segment were down in line with the issuance levels. In addition, spreads are increasing, and this c

50、ould put negative pressure on the inventory portfolios of the largest market-makers. We to in in FX is is a to Exhibit 8: Credit & FX metrics monitor, Q4 2018 (%)26%19%26%19%14%15%16.8%14%11%11.8%8%8%2%-1%-4%-13.6%YoY (%)FXYoY (%)QoQ (%)CREDIT25%0%CLS Total (ADV)Nex - Spot FX (ADV)CBOEfx (ADV)Fastma

51、tch (ADV)FxSpotStream (ADV)FIA SEF (ADV)DB 1 Month implied FX VolatilityFINRA IG Bond Volumes (ADV)FINRA HY Bond Volumes (ADV)Total US Bond MarketsBarCap US HY spread (bps)JPM HY Index spread to worst (bps)ICE BAML BBB OAS (bps)Bloomberg High-Yield Bond IndexBloomberg Investment Grade Bond Index (rh

52、s)-25%CLS Total (ADV)Nex - Spot FX (ADV)CBOEfx (ADV)Fastmatch (ADV)FxSpotStream (ADV)FIA SEF (ADV)DB 1 Month implied FX VolatilityFINRA IG Bond Volumes (ADV)FINRA HY Bond Volumes (ADV)Total US Bond MarketsBarCap US HY spread (bps)JPM HY Index spread to worst (bps)ICE BAML BBB OAS (bps)Bloomberg High

53、-Yield Bond IndexBloomberg Investment Grade Bond Index (rhs)Source: Euronext, Nex, CME Group, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, HSBC calculations Among other products (Exhibit 9), Securitisation is down with very weak ABS and CDO issuance. Especially, the CDO issuance all but dried up (-72% y-o-y) as inve

54、stors appetite continued to be non-existent. Interestingly, CDO secondary trading was very strong (+74% y-o-y), which suggests that certain players are exiting the market. Banks do not trade significantly anymore, implying that issuance levels are more important for overall revenues. Emerging market

55、s were weaker y-o-y (MSCI EMG was materially down q-o-q) with weaker macro (on the back of the stronger dollar with certain credit weakness) performance. Commodities continued to do better in certain products vs a very weak 2017, but the improvement was less pronounced than inH1.Exhibit 9: Other pro

56、duct metrics monitor, Q4 201873.7%45%73.7%45%6.9%3%8%-2.1%-12.0%-6%-1% -1% -9.7%-15.0%-11%-14%-8%-28%-40%YoY (%)SECURITISATIONQoQ (%)EMERGINGMARKETSYoY (%)QoQ (%)COMMODITIES75%50%25%0%-25%US ABSUS ABSIssuanceUSCDOIssuance US ABSTrading(ADV) US CDOTrading(ADV) Non-AgencyMBS(ADV) AgencyMBS(ADV) MSCI E

57、MGIndexEmerging market localsovereignindex EMG USD corporatebondindex Emerging MarketsCompositeIndex CME Group - MetalsVolumesCME Group - EnergyVolumesBBCommodityindex TR/Jefferies CommodityIndexBalticDryindex Gold SpotPriceindex Crude Oil Spot PriceindexCrude Oil 3M ImpliedVolatilitySource: MSCI, S

58、IFMA, Bloomberg, CME Group, HSBC calculationsDealogic data suggest weaker Q4 IB revenues; this is in line with managements comments; we estimate that fees will drop -10% y-o-yPrimary issuance (Exhibit 10)Dealogic data suggest that global IB revenues (in USD) were materially down y-o-y in Q4 2018 wit

59、h weakness in DCM (-36%), syndicated loans (-18%) and ECM (-36%) offset by decent M&A (+28%). This is consistent with the commentary of banks management teams that IB fees are characterised by weaker DCM and shelved IPOs. However, as always, we note that the number may actually prove to be slightly

60、pessimistic as banks do not book revenues always in the period in which a deal is completed. Also, readers should remember that US banks changed their revenue recognition reporting from 1Q18, which is now flattering the y-o-y comparison by a few percentage points. As such, we expect the actual numbe