美股醫(yī)藥供應(yīng)與設(shè)備：投資陳述要點(diǎn)

1、COREU.S. Medical Supplies & DevicesInvestor Presentations TakeawaysINDUSTRY UPDATEEquityResearch14 January2019Lastweek,mostofthecompanieswithinourcoverageuniversepresentedatan industryconference.Ourkeytakeawaysareherein.Webelievetheindustryunderlying fundamentalscontinuetobefavorable.Mostmanagementt

2、eamssuggestedtop-line underlyinggrowthshouldbeatleaststable,althoughforeignexchangeratesare expectedtodampthereportedresults.WebelievesomecompaniescouldseesomeU.S. Medical Supplies & DevicesPOSITIVEUnchangedForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetand earningschangesinthisreport,pleasesee tableonpage2.pr

3、essureontheirEPSoutlooksduetoforeignexchange,potentiallylessfavorablestock basedcompensationtaximpacts,andpurposefulinvestments.Assuch,therecouldbe someriskaheadwiththeupcomingreportingseason.Medtronic (OW): Mgmtwasveryupbeataboutthepipelineprospects,whichwe canunderstandasthereareanumberofproductsa

4、crossallfourbusinessunits.In thespiritoftransparency,mgmtdid“flag”thattheCardiac&VascularGroupwould besofter(F3Q19/FY19)andthetaxratewouldlikelyseeupwardpressureinFY20 duetoproposedchangesthatrelatetocompaniesdomiciledoutsidetheUnited States.WesubsequentlyreducedourEPSestimatesandPT( HYPERLINK /go/p

5、ublications/link?contentPubID=FC2429993 seeMgmtTweaks HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2429993 Guidance;Backintothepenaltybox?1/7/2019).WemaintainourOverweight.Zimmer Biomet (UW): MgmtmaintaineditsviewthatZBisatwo-yearturnaround storyandassuch,investorsshouldnotexpectthecompanytogrowat

6、itsweighted averagemarketgrowthrate(of2%-3%)until2020.Itcautionedonthecadencefor 2019notingthat2Hwouldlookbetterthan1H.Weveupdatedourmodel(mainly cadencefor2019).WemaintainourUnderweight.Webelieveatransformationis neededwhichwilllikelytakeseveralyearsandinvolveM&A/portfoliomanagement.Teleflex (EW):

7、Mgmt reiterated its long-range plan as outlined at its May 2018 investorday,specificallyitsconfidenceinits6%-7%salesgrowth.Managementdid “flag”ahighertaxrateandFXheadwindin2019;werereducingour2019EPS estimate(to$10.74from$11.10).WemaintainourPTandEqualWeightrating.Avanos (UW): Mgmtcontinuestobeoptim

8、isticaboutitsabilitytoacceleratethe growthprofileofthecompanyandseesM&Aasbeingakeyingredienttoward shareholdervaluecreation.Nothingchangedourviewonthepotentialheadwinds forON-Q.WecontinuetorateAVNSsharesUnderweight.Abbott(OW):Mgmthighlightedgrowthopportunities.Nothingnewinourview.Hill-Rom(EW)andBaxt

9、er(UW):Bothmgmtsexpressedconfidenceinachieving theirrespectivelong-rangegoals.Ourviewsonthestocksareunchanged.Edwards Lifesciences (UW): MgmtremainsupbeataboutitsTAVRprospectsas wellasthelongertermopportunitywithTMVR.Becton Dickinson (EW): Mgmt discussed its overall strategy and reaffirmed FY19 goal

10、s.ItdidnotethatF1Q19doeshavesomeheadwindsthatwilldampgrowth.U.S. Medical Supplies & Devices Kristen Stewart, CFA+1 212 526 6965 HYPERLINK mailto:kristen.stewart kristen.stewart BCI, USPatrick Dearchs, CFA+1 212-526-2404 HYPERLINK mailto:Patrick.Dearchs Patrick.Dearchs BCI, USCapitalInc.oneofdoesands

11、eekstodoinitsresearchAsabeawarethatthe mayhaveaofthattheofconsiderthisasonlyafactorinmakingtheirPLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 19.Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)CompanyRatingOld

12、 NewPrice11-Jan-19OldPrice TargetNew%ChgEPSFY1(Old NewE)%ChgOldEPS FY2(ENew)%ChgU.S. Medical Supplies & DevicesPosPos HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=TFX Teleflex (TFX)EW EW255.99266.00 266.00-9.88 9.88-11.10 10.74-3 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=ZBH Zimmer Biomet Holdings In

13、c (ZBH)UW UW104.28110.00 110.00-7.65 7.65-7.837.820Source:BarclaysResearch.SharepricesandtargetpricesareshownintheprimarylistingcurrencyandEPSestimatesareshowninthereportingcurrency. FY1(E):CurrentfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.FY2(E):NextfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.StockRating:OW:O

14、verweight;EW:EqualWeight;UW:Underweight;RS:RatingSuspended IndustryView:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:NegativeU.S. Medical Supplies & DevicesValuation Methodology and RisksU.S. Medical Supplies & DevicesTeleflex (TFX)Teleflex (TFX)Valuation Methodology: Insettingourpricetarget,weprimarilyrelyonaforwa

15、rdprice/earningsmethodology.Ourpricetargetof$266applies aPEmultipleof25xour2019EPSestimateof$10.74.Risks which May Impede the Achievement oftheBarclays ResearchValuation and Price Target: Upside:TotheextentNeoTract(Urolift)sales arehigherthanexpected,itcoulddriveupsidetosalesandearnings,leadingtoahi

16、gherPE.Downside:IfUroLiftsalesdisappoint,thecore growthfailstoimprove,FX(astrongerUSDollar),andhigherinterestrates(ashalfofdebtisfloating).otherrisksincludethetimingandreceipt ofnewproductapprovals,competitivepressures(particularlyforkeyproductslikeUroLift),significantchangesinreimbursement,andFDAor

17、 other governmentactions.ZimmerBiometHoldingsInc(ZBH)Valuation Methodology: Insettingourpricetarget,weprimarilyrelyonaforwardprice/earningsmethodology.Ourpricetargetof$110applies amultipleof14x our2019EEPSestimateof$7.82.Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and P

18、rice Target: Upside: Resolution of FDA matters, accelerationintoplinegrowth.Downside:Delayofnewproductapprovals,failuretoseesignificantincreasesinnewproductuptake,negative earningsrevisions,additionalcostsassociatedwithongoingmanufacturingissues.Otherriskfactorsincludesignificantreimbursementchanges

19、, competitivepressure,dilutionassociatedwithpotentialacquisitions,integrationofacquiredbusinesses,proceedsfromthesaleofbusinesses, andFDAorothergovernmentactions.Source: Barclays Research.MDTStock RatingOVERWEIGHTIndustry ViewPOSITIVEPrice TargetUSD 104.00Price (11-Jan-2019)USD 84.84Potential Upside

20、/Downside+22.6%MedtronicMedtronic PLC(MDT): Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)201820192020Changey/yFY AprActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20192020Q11.03A1.17A1.17A1.17A1.22E1.22E1.25E14%4%Q21.07A1.22A1.22A1.22A1.27E1.27E1.30E14%4%Q31.17A1.23E1.23E1.24E1.31E1.31E1.36E5%7%Q41.42A1.49E1.49E1.50E1.58E1.58E1.61E5%6

21、%Year4.68A5.11E5.11E5.13E5.38E5.38E5.53E9%5%P/E18.116.615.8Source: Barclays Research.Consensus numbers are from Thomson Reuters received on 11-Jan-2019; 14:35 GMTMedtronicsmanagementcontinuestobelievethecurrentpipelineisthemostrobustinthe companyshistory,highlightinganumberofnewproductsacrossitsfour

22、businessunits. Someofthekeyproductsincludenext-generationtranscatheteraorticvalvereplacement devices,transcathetermitralvalvereplacementsystems,theMicraAVleadlesspacemaker, RevealLINQ2.0,next-generationSolitaire,IntegratednavigationwithMazorX,DBSprimary cell+sensing,advancedhybridclosed-loop(insulin

23、pump/CGM)system, asurgicalrobotic platform, cranial mounted DBS, renal denervation for hypertension, and a portable hemodialysissystem.Despitemanagementsupbeatcommentaryonthepipeline,thestock tradedlowerthedayofthepresentationreflecting,inourview,someofthemorecautious commentaryaroundnear-termCardia

24、c&VascularGroup(CVG)performanceandthe potentialeffectsofproposedtaxguidance.WithregardstoCVG,managementreviseddownitsguidanceforbothF3Q19andFY2019. CVGisnowexpectedtogrow1.5%-2.0%,downfrom3.5%+/-inF3Q19,and3.0%-3.5%, downfrom4.0%+/-forFY2019.Therevisioninguidancewasduetothefollowingissues:LVAD softn

25、ess: Medtronic expects slower growth in its left ventricular assist device (LVAD)businessduetotwofactors.First,theearlierthan(it)expectedreceiptof destination therapy for Abbotts Heartmate 3 brought additionalcompetitive headwinds. Second, changes to the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) guide

26、linesinJuly2018createdagreateravailabilityofheartsfortransplants.“Cautiousness” on DCB usage: Managementalsonoted“cautiousness”withrespectto usageofdrug-coatedballoons(DCBs)followingjournalarticlescallingintoquestionthe safetyofpaclitaxel,thedrugusedincommerciallyavailableDCBs.Thecompanynotedit iswo

27、rkingwiththeFDAandplanstopresentpatientlevelanalysisattheupcoming LeipzigInterventionalCourse(LINC)conferenceinlateJanuary,aswellasatan upcomingVIVAsummitinMay.Wenote,thiscouldalsohavenegativeimplicationsfor BectonDickinsonsDCBbusinessaswell.Duetorecenttaxproposals,managementcommentedthatitstaxratei

28、nFY2020coulda 100bp-200bpincreasefromitsunderlyingrateofabout15%.Asaresult,FY2020EPS growthisexpectedtofallbelowitstargetedlong-termgrowthrateof8%.Managementis stillintheplanningstagesforFY2020andwebelieveitwouldlookforwaystooffsettothe extentitdidnotimpactthelong-termgrowthprospectsofthecompany.Wha

29、ts next for Medtronic? We expect read-throughs on the end markets from other MedTechcompaniesduringtheupcomingearningsreports.MedtronicwillreportitsF3Q19 resultsonFeb19.ZBHStock RatingUNDERWEIGHTIndustry ViewPOSITIVEPrice TargetUSD 110.00Price (11-Jan-2019)USD 104.28Potential Upside/Downside+5.5%Zim

30、mer BiometZimmer Biomet Holdings Inc(ZBH): Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)201720182019Change y/yFYDecActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20182019Q12.13A1.91AQ22.08A1.92AQ31.72A1.63AQ42.10A2.19EYear8.03A7.65EP/E13.0AA1.63A2.19E7.65E13.61.91A1.98E1.92A1.96E1.63A1.64E2.18E2.24E7.63E7.83EEE1.70E2.26E7.82E13.31.96E

31、-10%0.52%1.97E-8%0.52%1.68E-5%4%2.23E4%3%7.83E-5%2%Source: Barclays Research.Consensus numbers are from Thomson Reuters received on 11-Jan-2019; 14:35 GMTZimmer Biomets prepared remarks summarized the companys current organizational priorities for 2019 and its vision for 2020 and beyond.With respect

32、 to the 2019 priorities:Supply:managmntfsthatthasldtsupytuanbutthatttlneds togainthefullconfidenceofitssalesorganizationandthatitwillfocusmoreonsupply efficiency.uliy reeiion: Managmnt s cmmtd to mdan and s fcud shiftingtobest-in-classquality.Itwillalsolookatcost-reductionopportunities.New product i

33、ntroductions: Management believes it is entering into a phasewith excitingnewproductlaunchesthatincludethePersonaPartialKnee,TMTibia,and RevisionsystemsaswellastheROSASurgicalRobotforBrain,Spine,andKnee.ion nd culure:ManagemntsfcudncatngaoneZBmnandcutu.Talent and structure: Managementhighlightedthat

34、70%ofleadershipteamisnewto theirpositions.ItincludesnewleadersoverOrthopedics,SpineandCMFT,andDental.Managementdidnotprovideanyspecificguidancefor2019butplanstodosoduringits 4Q earnings call on February 1. Management commented that it expected constant currencysalesgrowthtobelessthan2%in2019.Italsoc

35、ommentedthatgrowthwillbe slowerin1H19than2H19drivenbythenewproductlaunches.Italsoexpectsforeign exchangetobeclosetoa150bpheadwindforthefullyearwithagreaterimpactin1H19. Theresalsoabillingdayheadwindinthe1H19versus2H19. Regardingtaxes,itbelieves thatitshouldseeataxratedecreasein2019duetoitstaxplannin

36、gstrategies.Withrespectto2020andbeyond,managementsgoalistogettotheturnaroundin2020. Thatis,tobeinthepositiontogrowatitsweightedaveragemarketgrowthrate,whichit estimatesis2%-3%. Afterachievingthat,managementintendstothenfocusona5-year planthatchangesthetrajectoryofitsrevenuegrowth,changestheabilityto

37、drivemargin expansion,focusonincreasingcashflow. Inourview,M&Aisgoingtobeanimportant potentialdriverforshareholdervalueandtousitsoundsthatthatismorelikelytostartto unfold in 2020. The company signalled it is intent on trying to improve (instead of potentiallydivesting)thedentalbusiness,withthesegmen

38、treceivingadditionalinvestment dollarsin2019andnowreportingdirectlytoHanson.Whats next? Zimmer Biomet reports earnings February 1.TFXStock RatingEQUAL WEIGHTIndustry ViewPOSITIVEPrice TargetUSD 266.00Price (11-Jan-2019)USD 255.99Potential Upside/Downside+3.9%TeleflexTeleflex(TFX): Quarterly and Annu

39、al EPS (USD)201720182019Change y/yFYDecActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20182019Q11.80A2.15AQ22.04A2.47AQ32.12A2.52AQ42.44A2.74EYear8.40A9.88EP/E30.52.15A2.47A2.52A2.74E9.88E25.92.15A2.43E2.47A2.74E2.52A2.83E2.76E3.08E9.89E11.10E2.39E2.62E2.73E2.99E10.74E23.82.46E19%11%2.74E21%6%2.84E19%8%3.11E12%9%11.14E1

40、8%9%Source: Barclays Research.Consensus numbers are from Thomson Reuters received on 11-Jan-2019; 14:35 GMTTeleflexmanagementhighlightedthecompanystransitionintobecomingapure-play medicaldevicecompanyanditstrackrecordofexecution.Teleflexcompletedover40 transactionssince2011,mostofwhichaddedscale,rev

41、enuegrowth,andmarginexpansion opportunities.Thecompanysaverageannualorganicconstantcurrencyrevenuegrowth overthepastthreeyearshasaveraged4%althoughmanagementfeelsconfidentinits abilitytoachieve6%-7%revenuegrowthoverthenextthreeyearsasitbenefitsfrom recentacquisitions.Itcontinuestoseethebaseascapable

42、ofdelivering4%growthwithVSI adding1%andNeoTractadding1%-2%.Managementreiterateditsfivecorestrategicbuildingblocksthatitdiscussedatitsanalyst dayinMay2018.Theseincluded:(1)drivingorganicrevenuegrowth;(2)delivernon- revenuedependentmarginexpansion;(3)continuetobeaserialacquirer;(4)alignportfolio withf

43、avorabledemographics;and(5)continuetoattractkeytalent. Itsgoalbytheendof 2021istofurthertransformTeleflexfromamedium-growthtoahigh-growthcompany withcontinuedgrossandoperatingmarginexpansion.Regardingkeyproducts,managementhighlightedUroLiftforbenignprostatehyperplasia (BPH),itsEZ-IOdeviceforquickvas

44、cularaccess,PICCsandcatheternavigationsystems, interventionalproductssuchasTurnpikeandTrapLiner,RePlasfreeze-driedplasma,and theMANTAvascularclosuredevice. ManagementreiteratedthatitviewsRePlasasabouta$100millionmarketopportunityanditintendstosubmittheBLAtotheFDAin1H19.It estimatesthatMANTAisamarket

45、opportunityof$200-$300millionandthatitanticipates beinginthemarketeither2Q19(assumingnopanelreview)or4Q19(assumingapanel review).ManagementalsohighlightedPercuvance(insurgical)andtheUroLift2system (expected in2H19).RegardingM&A,managementcommenteditwilllookto“scaleacquisitions”withtargets beinginthe

46、$30-$200millionrangeforannualrevenues.Managementdidnotethatitwillseeataxheadwindin2019ascomparedto2018dueto stock-basedcompensationaswellasthegeographicmixofbusinesses.FXisalsoexpected tobeaheadwindtobothrevenueandEPS.Wealsoexpectmanagementtocontinueto investbehindgrowthinitiatives,particularlyUroLi

47、ft. WearereducingourEPSestimateto$10.74from$11.10.Wemaintainourpricetargetof$266butincreaseourtargetmultiple (25xvs.24x)onourrevised2019EPSestimate.Whats next? We expect management to report its 4Q18 results in mid-to-late February.AVNSStock RatingUNDERWEIGHTIndustry ViewPOSITIVEPriceTargetUSD36.00P

48、rice (11-Jan-2019)USD 43.17Potential Upside/Downside-16.6%HRCStock RatingEQUAL WEIGHTIndustry ViewPOSITIVEPriceTargetUSD95.00Price (11-Jan-2019)USD 92.89Potential Upside/Downside+2.3%AvanosAvanos Medical Inc(AVNS): Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)201720182019Changey/yFYDecActualOldNewConsOldNewCons201

49、82019Q10.48A-0.10AQ20.51A0.20AQ30.60A0.37AQ40.73A0.23EYear2.35A0.72EP/E18.3-0.10A 0.20A0.37A0.23E0.72E60.3-0.10A0.32E0.20A0.23E0.37A0.32E0.23E0.33E0.72E1.34E0.32E0.23EEE1.34E32.20.31EN/A420%0.33E-61%15%0.36E-38%-14%0.40E-68%43%1.38E-69%86%Source: Barclays Research.Consensus numbers are from Thomson

50、Reuters received on 11-Jan-2019; 14:35 GMTManagementhighlightedthecompanystransitionintobecomingapure-playmedical devicecompanywithroughly$650millioninrevenuesinthepainmanagementandchronic carebusinessunits.Itsstrategyforcreatingshareholdervalueisthrough:(1)organic growthacceleratingtothehighsingle-

51、digits(withaspirationsofdouble-digitgrowth);(2) costtransformation;and(3)M&Aexecution. IthighlightedCOOLIEFasakeydriverbehind organicgrowthaccelerationaswellasacutepainadoptionandinternationalacceleration.It sees Chronic Care as a franchise that should deliver consistent mid-single-digit revenue gro

52、wth. Regarding M&A, management highlighted that it has $750 million of acquisition capacitywitharobustpipelinewithawiderangeofpotentialdeals.Itnotedthatitwas exploringnewandadjacentmarketsthatexpandcallpoints,channelaccess,technologies, andtherapies.Whatsnext?Thenextupdatewilllikelybethecompanys4Q18

53、resultsand2019guidance.Hill-RomHill-Rom Holdings Inc(HRC): Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)201820192020Changey/yFYSepActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20192020Q10.92A0.98EQ21.05A1.18EQ31.15A1.27EQ41.63A1.69EYear4.75A5.12EP/E19.50.98E1.18E1.27E1.69E5.12E18.10.99E1.11E1.20E1.32E1.29E1.42E1.67E1.85E5.14E5.69E1.1

54、1E1.32E1.42E1.85E5.69E16.31.11E7%13%1.32E12%12%1.43E10%12%1.84E4%9%5.70E8%11%Source: Barclays Research.Consensus numbers are from Thomson Reuters received on 11-Jan-2019; 14:35 GMTHill-Romspreparedremarkssummarizedthecompanysstrategicprioritiesanditsfocuson acceleratingitscoregrowthratetoaboveitsWAM

55、GR.Thecompanytouchedonitsnew productlaunchescomingin2019,includingtheLINQMobileApp,EarlySensetechnology, WatchCare,andthenext-generationRetinaVue.Thecompanyalsodiscusseditslong-term plantogrowitsemergingmarketspresence.Managementnotedthatitcontinuestoseea stablehospitalcapexenvironment(30%ofthereven

56、ueiscapital,with20%beinghospital bedsspecifically).Whatsnext?ThenextupdatewilllikelybethecompanysF1Q19resultsandupdated2019 guidance(fortheadoptionofASC606).BAXStock RatingUNDERWEIGHTIndustry ViewPOSITIVEPriceTargetUSD67.00Price (11-Jan-2019)USD 66.81Potential Upside/Downside+0.3%ABTStock RatingOVER

57、WEIGHTIndustry ViewPOSITIVEPriceTargetUSD80.00Price (11-Jan-2019)USD 69.33Potential Upside/Downside+15.4%BaxterBaxter International(BAX): Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)201720182019Changey/yFYDecActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20182019Q10.58A0.70AQ20.63A0.77AQ30.64A0.80AQ40.64A0.73EYear2.48A3.00EP/E27.00.7

58、0A0.77A0.80A0.73E3.00E22.30.70A0.77E0.77A0.78E0.80A0.85E0.73E0.81E3.00E3.20EEE0.85E0.81E3.20E20.90.74E21%10%0.82E22%1%0.85E25%6%0.86E14%11%3.27E21%7%Source: Barclays Research.Consensus numbers are from Thomson Reuters received on 11-Jan-2019; 14:35 GMTBaxters management discussed their plans to cont

59、inue innovation and growth by maintainingthecadenceofproductlaunchesandgeographicexpansion,andexecutingon theirlongrangeplanandbusinesstransformationinitiatives.Thecompanyplanson200+ productlaunchesand$1.7billioninsalesfromnewproductsoverthenextfiveyears.The companyalsoannouncedthefirstpatientsenrol

60、ledinaclinicaltrialfortheAmiaon- demandperitonealdialysissystem.Nothingchangedourview.WebelieveBaxtercanachieveitslong-rangeplansbutthepath maynotbeaslinearasthemarketmaybeexpecting.Wesee2019asabitmoreofa challengingyear.Whatsnext:Baxterwillreportsits4Q18resultsandprovideits2019guidanceonJan31.Abbot