假日購(gòu)物零售報(bào)告

1、Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Introduction3Short-term consumer sentiment is positive,4but headwinds are formingShoppers want great products, good deals,6and more convenience HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Consumers want their holiday gifts delivered for free8The experience of celebrating the season with

2、 others is10the leading type of holiday spend HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Online shopping is looking even stronger this holiday season12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Theres more to holiday high spenders than income alone14Smartphones are becoming the go-to platform for16holiday shoppingOnline retailers and m

3、ass merchants are the most preferred18formats for holiday shoppingHoliday shopping is expected to peak in early December20this yearOnline retailers are the No. 1 source of inspiration22for most shoppers HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Its time to jingle all the way242Deloitte 2019 holiday retail surveyIntro

4、ductionTop 10 insightsRETAIL IS LOOKING to enjoy another cheerful holiday season. Deloittes annual holiday economic forecast estimates that holidayretail sales will increase 4.55 percent this year. E-commerce holiday sales are projected to grow 1418 percent over 2018.Our 34th annual holiday retail s

5、urvey findings corroborate this forecast: Consumers seem bullish about the economy this year and their household financial situation, as reflected in their spending plans for the coming holiday season.And consumers again plan to shop online as their preferred holiday channel, with online purchases e

6、xpected to account for 59 percent of consumer holiday spending.Consumers want to keep the good times rolling. In this years survey, we explore consumer sentiment and planned shopping behaviors to understand what consumers seek in this holiday shopping season.The 20 percent in the high-spender catego

7、ry (those spending US$2,101 or more) will account for 60 percent of the total holiday spend, and is especially keen on experiences. In order to win the holidays this year, high spenders should be a priority for retailersespecially those offering experiences.From a digital shopping perspective, smart

8、phone use for purchases is rising while other digital devices remain constant. This is the season, then, for retailers to continue to innovate with individual store apps, creating seamless experiences from online to in-store.Data privacy remains a concern, but our study results show that consumers a

9、re more open to sharing data if retailers provide them with data access and control. This willingness to share increases when offered better pricing or discounts.In order to win the holidays this year, high spenders should be a priority for retailersespecially those offering experiences.What follows

10、 is a summary of our findings. We hope these insights will help guide retailers to capitalize on a cheerful holiday season and build deeper relationships with consumers to keep the momentum going well into the new year.331Deloitte 2019 holiday retail surveyShort-term consumer sentiment is positive,

11、but headwinds are forming4CONSUMERS PLAN TO spend US$1,496 per household this year. While this is a slight drop from 2018 (US$1,536), there is apositive growth trajectory since the post-Great Recession recovery began. Since 2012, projected consumer holiday spend has grown at a 5.4 percent compound a

12、nnual growth rate, slightly outpacing overall retail sales of just over 4 percent during this same period.Consumer confidence and their personal financial situation are important determinants heading into the holiday season. While consumers are stillTop 10 insightsexpecting to spend, there are signa

13、ls of uncertainty. For the first time since 2012, fewer than 40 percent of consumers expect the economy to improve in 2020. This is a 13 percent drop from 2018.One in five consumersthe same as the last two yearssay they plan to spend less this year. They cite a number of reasons, leading with the ne

14、ed to save more. Only 7 percent of all respondents cite general concern about the economy as a reason.Despite potential future headwinds, the holiday season should be cheerful.FIGURE 1Shopper sentimentHoliday spend to be the same or more than last yearHousehold nances better than last yearHoliday sp

15、ending is projected to be the same as last year despitea weaker outlook for future household nances. 51%62%58%63%71%70%75%74%78%78%43%78%41%15%24%21%28%29%31%33%36%37% 20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Note: Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers, n=4,140. Source: Deloitte 2019

16、 Holiday Retail Survey.FIGURE 2Economic outlook for the upcoming yearImprove signicantly/modestlyRemain the sameWeaken signicantly/modestly34%22%44%47%26%27%41%33%26%45%33%22%42%33%25%43%32%25%46%29%25%50%24%26%33%30%37%39%37%24% 18%54%28% 20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Fewer than 40 pe

17、rcent of consumers expect the economy to improve in 2020.Note: Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers, n=4,140. Source: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.5Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey2Shoppers want great products, good deals, and more convenience6Top 10 insightsFinding the perfe

18、ct itemand getting a great deal on that itemis always on shoppers minds, and this holiday season is no different.THREE-QUARTERS OF CONSUMERS call pricean important factor in their purchasing decisionssomething that retailers shouldkeep in mind when rolling out holiday deals and promotions.But price

19、isnt everything: Consumers continue to focus on retailers product quality and variety. In fact, having great products and brands scored highest among all consumers (85 percent) when asked about their key preferences. With ever moreconsumer choices of where and how to shop, maintaining quality stock

20、should be high on retailers “shopping list.”Great deals and assortment will likely always be key drivers. As competition increases in those areasparticularly from online merchants consumers may be shifting to convenience aspects in choosing where to shop, meaning that convenience is growing as a pot

21、ential differentiating factor.FIGURE 3Products, deals, and convenience are top of mind for consumersPRODUCT 76%PRICE 75%CONVENIENCE 64%Note: Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers, n=4,140. Source: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.7Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey3Consumers want th

22、eir holiday gifts delivered for free8INCREASINGLY, CONSUMERS WANT theirholiday shipping to be fast and/or free, and options have grown, with many retailers offeringfast or free shippingor the alternative of buying online and picking up at the store.Consumers have made their choice: Fully 85 percent

23、prefer free shipping over fast shipping.This has stayed consistent over the last three to five years. Among those shoppers who prefer free shipping, over 80 percent are willing to wait threeTop 10 insightsdays or more for order delivery. And almost half of consumers plan to use the buy-online-pick-u

24、p-in- store option this holiday season.Retailers understand that convenience enhances the customer experience and can be a key differentiator. This last-mile supply chain, or how the product is delivered to consumers, has become another key battleground. In early communications and advertising for t

25、he 2018 and 2019 holiday seasons, delivery and fulfillment communications are moving to the forefront.Apart from last-minute gift purchases, consumers have clearly shown that free over fast for the holidays is their preferential delivery option.FIGURE 4Free vs. fast shipping: Timeframe shoppers are

26、willing to wait forFree shipping Fast shipping*40%27%41%18%9%1%3%15%21%10%13%2%Same-dayNext-day2 days34 days57 days12 weeks67% of shoppers who opt forfast shipping want delivery inless than 2 days68% of shoppers who optfor free shipping are willing to wait 37 days Share of shoppers opting for “free

27、shipping”: 85% of national sample* Share of shoppers opting for “fast shipping”: 15% of national sampleNote: Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers, n=4,140. Source: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.94Deloitte 2019 holiday retail surveyThe experience of celebrating the season with oth

28、ers is the leading type of holiday spend10WHILE THERE IS a relatively even split in the high-level categories of where people are looking to spend, there is more thanmeets the eye with this one.item people report buying for themselves is food and drinkit is a festive season, after all.Travel and ent

29、ertainment experiences are a key aspect of holiday intent and spend. ConsumersTop 10 insightsOver the last five years, we have seen a modest increase in “experience” spending, growing from 38 percent to 40 percent of total spend.While people are still planning to give, they also intend to travel, di

30、ne out, and spend more time socializing this season. Perhaps that is why the topplanning on “socializing” through travel, staying at hotels, or dining in restaurants account for over a quarter of holiday spending. In fact, two-thirds of holiday shoppers plan on socializing away from home, spending a

31、n average of US$391.As we have seen in past years, the top gifts remain clothing, gift cards or certificates, and toys.However, the average number of gifts given has fallen to 15 from a peak of 21 in 2007. With spouses and children as the top gift recipients, it should still be a cheerful holiday se

32、ason.FIGURE 5Categories of spendExperiences* 40%Top experiences75% Entertaining at home 59% Dining at restaurants 25% Staying overnightat hotels or resorts$59626%$389Gifts34% Top gifts55% Clothes53% Gift cards47% Games, toys, dolls, etc.$511 Gifts include gift cards/gift certicatesNongifts* Experien

33、ces include socializing away from home/entertaining at homeNote: Figure indicates percentage of US holiday budget, 100 percent = US$1,496. All dollar amounts are in US dollars.Source: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.11Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey5Online shopping is looking even stronger t

34、his holiday season12TIS THE SEASON to be online shopping. Deloitte has forecast retailers digital sales to be robust this holiday season, amounting toUS$144$149 billion. E-commerce sales are expected to grow between 14 and 18 percent, higher than the 11.2 percent in 2018. Potentially aiding this gro

35、wth is the smartphones prevalence, power, and popularity: Smartphone use for holiday shopping is expected to rise 6 percent, while other device use is flat.Our research suggests that two-thirds of consumers intend to begin their holiday shopping journeys at online retailers with few or no physical l

36、ocations, including auction sites. Nearly the same number (58 percent) plan to use online search engines as their main source for research. Using online retail sites for research is a no-brainer, with retailers offering a breadth of products, customer reviews, and 24/7 ordering.Top 10 insightsIn-sto

37、re experience, however, still plays a major role in the shoppers journey. Many consumers still prefer to interact with products in person.Over two-thirds of holiday shoppers suggest they will research online and buy at least some gifts in-store.Conversely, more than half of shoppers also plan on doi

38、ng in-store research and buying online. This consumer journey of mixing online and in-store for research, pricing, and comparisons is now commonplace.FIGURE 6Percentage share of spend: Online vs. in-storeIn-storeOnline*In-store$541 average spend55%Online$879 average spend36%36%57%59%38%46%51%45%50%2

39、0152016201720182019 While the projected in-store spending has remained the same, more consumers say theyll be spending online, compared to 2018. Other retail channels (e.g., catalog or direct mail promotion) not included (share of spend = 3 percent in 2015, 5 percent in 2016, 7 percent in 2017, 7 pe

40、rcent in 2018, and 5 percent in 2019)Note: Figure indicates percentage of US holiday shoppers, n=4,280. All dollar amounts are in US dollars. Source: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.136Deloitte 2019 holiday retail surveyTheres more to holiday high spenders than income alone14RETAILERS RACE TO ca

41、pture the high spenders hearts and wallets during the holiday seasonis hardly new. To understand the profile of high spenders, we analyzed the 20 percent of all shoppers who intend to spend over US$2,100,higher-income households (over US$100,000), 25 percent are from middle-income households (US$50,

42、000$99,000), and 10 percent from lower-income households.Top 10 insightsaccounting for 60 percent of total holiday spending.For retailers to win this holiday season, they should pay attention to where and how this group shops and on what.While its no surprise that a majority (65 percent) of high spe

43、nders are individuals fromThis group also tends to be older, with 65 percent over age 40. They are more likely to be buying clothing, gift cards, and books for family members, especially spouses and children. Their largest spend (31 percent of their holiday budget) goes toward travel and socializing

44、 away from home.High spenders are more likely to use technology to shop during the holiday season. Nearly two-thirds plan on using smartphones for shopping, compared to only half for the rest of the population.FIGURE 7High spenders spend a large part of their holiday budget on socializingLow spender

45、sBottom 20%High spendersTop 20%Holiday spend$305 or less$2,101 or moreGeneration42% Gen X and boomers65% Gen X and boomersTop gift recipients40% Children37% Spouse/partner78% Spouse/partner74% ChildrenSmartphone use for shopping45%62%Types of giftsClothingGift cardsGames/toysClothingGift cardsBooks“

46、Socializing away from home” as percentage of holiday spend12%31%Note: All dollar amounts are in US dollars. Source: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.15Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey7Smartphones are becoming the go-to platform for holiday shopping16THE SMARTPHONE IS becoming as ubiquitous to

47、holiday shopping as going to the mall usedconsoles, and in-store technologies arriving regularly. What will be the next killer app inTop 10 insightsto bemaybe even more so. Consumers are taking advantage of quick access to products, reviews, social media, and seamless checkouts, likening smartphone

48、shopping to a point-of-sale anywhere.Over the last two years, the smartphone has grown in consumer usage, while laptops, desktops, and tablets have remained constant. Consumer shopping preferences for other devices seem to have plateaued.Technology has increasingly driven the holiday shopping experi

49、ence, with new gadgets, gameshopping? From our findings, we are not there yet. No single emerging consumer technology, such as social commerce, voice assistance, and AR/VR, has really caught on.Smartphones as a platform increased 6 percent while desktop & tablet flat-lined.It will be interesting to

50、see the impact of 5G in the coming years and how it influences the always-on mobile point-of-sale trend.FIGURE 8Share of smartphone users who plan to use it to make a purchase67%70%The use of smartphones to make holiday purchases has increased by 11 percent since 2017 (while use of desktop and table

51、t at-lined).59%201720182019Source: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.178Deloitte 2019 holiday retail surveyOnline retailers and mass merchants are the most preferred formats for holiday shopping1818AS WE HAVE seen for several years, online retailers and mass merchants are where consumers prefer to

52、 shop during theholidays. Nearly two-thirds of consumers plan to shop at online retailers this year; over half plan on visiting a mass merchant. These two formats have remained at the top for the last five years.With the demise of major toy store chains, the toy store format has dropped from a top-f

53、ive format in 2015 to the bottom.Top 10 insightsOver the years, we have seen individuals changing how they shop for certain categories. The gifting of food and liquor for the holiday season has been rising, and as this trend continues, we are also seeing a 10 percent increase in the supermarket/ gro

54、cery store format.However, toys remain a top gift category year after year; online merchants, mass retailers, and other store formats are filling the void by strengthening their toy offerings.FIGURE 9Retail format preference from 2015 to 2019Internet (including auction sites)Mass merchantSupermarket

55、s or grocery storesToy stores64%47% Despite the decline in use of toy store format, toys remain a top gift category, with other formats lling the void.45%53%23%15%2015201925%18%Source: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.19Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey9Holiday shopping is expected to peak in e

56、arly December this year2020Top 10 insightsHoliday shopping typically peaks around Thanksgiving, but this year it seems to have shifted to slightly later.ONE REASON MAY be that this year, Thanksgiving is unusually late, placing Black Friday on November 29 and CyberMonday on December 2. Perhaps that i

57、s why nearly 70 percent of consumers say they plan to holiday shop in early December.Cyber Monday has eclipsed Black Friday in terms of importance across all generational cohorts, though Gen Z and millennials rely most on Cyber Monday deals. As online natives, Gen Z(65 percent) and millennials (61 p

58、ercent) are particularly interested in finding a deal on Cyber Monday to stretch their disposable income.Shoppers that tend to start early spend significantly more. Pre-Thanksgiving shoppers plan to spend25 percent more (US$1,660) than those that start after (US$1,239). While the early start certain

59、ly opens the wallet, shoppers still count on holiday deals and promotions.FIGURE 10Holiday shopping periods by trac6469354451 3 Before endOctober11516301151631NovemberDecemberNext yearJanuarySource: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.FIGURE 11Consumers planning their holiday shopping around Cyber M

60、onday vs. Black FridayBlack FridayCyber Monday7%53%53%57%44%44%4201720182019Source: Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey.21Deloitte 2019 holiday retail survey10Online retailers are the No. 1 source of inspiration for most shoppers2222FINDING THE RIGHT gift for that special someone is always a challen