Q1美國MLPs與中游服務(wù)商業(yè)績手冊

1、Global Research14 April 2019EquitiesMLPs & MidstreamEnergyAmericas1Q Earnings PlaybookFocus will be on Metrics, Cash Flow, Capex FundingAfter 7 sequential growth quarters, we expect earnings to be flattish with 4Q; however, we expect cash flow harvesting to be the primary focal point during this ear

2、nings season. In catching up with mgmt teams on our Tulsa Tour, C-Suite Catch-ups the clear message has been about operating leverage and harvesting more cash flows from existing assets. We expect a more muted FID season compared with the torrid pace a year ago and expect investors will become incre

3、asingly confident in Midstream turning the corner in the FCF conversion cycle. Those that put up metrics, signal confidence in FCF and maintain capex outlooks should be looked upon more favorably. Mgmt teams that discuss being able to have flex on capital budgets may be rewarded as well. That is not

4、 to say there wont be FIDs, just a slower pace, as we believe OKE is close to FIDing an LPG export terminal. At the same time we wouldnt be surprised to hear some companies have flex around in-service dates and can better manage cash outflows.Could Lower NGL Prices Impact 2019 Guidance?Despite risin

5、g crude prices QTD, some macro indicators we track are signalling for potential headwinds for 2Q19. During 1Q19 earnings season we expect many questions on mgmts outlook for 2Q and look to see if mgmt teams talk down growth for 2Q. Furthermore, 2Q is a seasonally weaker quarter. NGL pricing has rece

6、ived a lot of attention, as the average weekly price fell 14% in 1Q19 to $0.603/gal and another6% in the first week in 2Q to $0.572/gal. The lower NGL barrel was largely driven by a decline in ethane prices to $0.296/gal in 1Q19 from $0.353 and dropping 27% QTD to $0.222/gal. EIA DPR data is also sh

7、owing a negative trend with slower prod. QoQ, albeit still growing: oil +2.1% (vs. 1Q19 +3.7%) and natgas 2.2% (vs. 1Q19+3.0%). Additionally, with rig counts falling in 1Q before recovering recently, we wouldnt be surprised to hear more muted growth commentary.UBS Evidence Lab: Rigsillow As Permian

8、Waits on Capacity, Bakken ImpressesThe average US rig count was down 3% in 1Q19 due to 1) Crude volatility in Dec 18,2) constraints out of the Permian, 3) E&P operators switching to full pad development, and 4) investors giving scrutiny for E&Ps to live within cash flows. Rigsillow identified EPD &

9、WMB as those seeing growth around their assets in 2H19. We see growth in 2Q19, following the macro support, identified in Rigsillow from Jan and EIA estimates, just at a slower rate. During 1Q calls, we will listen for commentary about potentially placing rigs back into service as crude prices conti

10、nued to track higher in 2Q and there is expected to be ample crude takeaway out of the Permian in 6-9 months.UBS Evidence Lab: Crude Export Port Data Who has Seen the Biggest Delta? YTD Corpus, Houston and the Louisiana area have all seen increased port activity vs. 18; with Houston seeing the large

11、st increase. Company level, BPL saw the largest Corpus increase, ET, EPD and MMP saw Houston increases and NS saw a St. James increase and we listen to see if they provide positive commentary. We expect more muted commentary from NS at its Corpus facility and SEMG at HFOTCO.Guidance WinnersPost rece

12、nt transactions, WMB plans to update its 19 guidance and we expect it will revise down its capex and leverage outlook, which should be well-received. After a controversial 4Q, we expect TRGP to signal that capex is heading lower in 20 and FCF will emerge in 20 as most of projects under construction

13、will be placed into service.Winners and ChallengedWinners: ET (favorable tailwinds upper end of guide?), BPL (Port utilization), LNG (sentiment more negative), WMB (leverage/capex reduction), TRP (beats) Challenged: DCP (NGLs), ENBL (NGLs, guidance down?), PBFX (cons seems high), SEMG (div cut?) HYP

14、ERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchShneur Z. Gershuni, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:shneur.gershuni shneur.gershuni+1-212-713 3974Aga Zmigrodzka, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:agnieszka.zmigrodzka agnieszka.zmigrodzka+1-212-713 3014Michelle Kenel, CFA Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:miche

15、lle.kenel michelle.kenel+1-212-713 4896Brian Reynolds Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:brian.reynolds brian.reynolds+1-212-713 2563This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 50. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies

16、covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250040 1

17、Q19 Earnings Tear Sheet3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250039 Earnings Read Through Map4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250038 C-Corps/General Partners5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250037 Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG)6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250036 Enbridge Inc (ENB)7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250035 Kinder Morgan (KMI)8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250034 EnLink Mid

18、stream LLC (ENLC)10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250033 ONEOK Inc. (OKE)11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250032 Plains GP Holdings (PAGP)12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250031 SemGroup (SEMG)13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250030 TransCanada (TRP)14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250029 Targa Resources Corp (TRGP)15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250028 Williams Companies (W

19、MB)17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250027 Diversified18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250026 Enterprise Product Partners (EPD)19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250025 Energy Transfer (ET)21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250024 NGL Energy Partners (NGL)23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250023 Plains All American Pipeline (PAA)24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 Gathering &

20、Processing26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 Crestwood Equity Partners (CEQP)27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 DCP Midstream LP (DCP)28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL)29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 MPLX (MPLX)30 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Western Midstream Partners LP (WES)31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250

21、016 Liquid Transportation & Storage32 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Andeavor Logistics LP (ANDX)33 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 BP Midstream Partners (BPMP)34 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Buckeye Partners L.P. (BPL)35 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL)36 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Holly Energy Partners

22、 (HEP)37 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP)38 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 NuStar (NS)39 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 PBF Logistics (PBFX)40 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Shell Midstream Partners (SHLX)41 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Other MLPs42 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Cheniere Energy Partners (C

23、QP)43 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Suburban Propane Partners (SPH)44 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Sunoco (SUN)45 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 TC Pipeline Partners (TCP)46 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 USA Compression (USAC)47 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Westlake Chemical Partners (WLKP)48Shneur Z. Gershuni, CFAAnalyst HYPER

24、LINK mailto:shneur.gershuni shneur.gershuni+1-212-713 3974Aga Zmigrodzka, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:agnieszka.zmigrodzka agnieszka.zmigrodzka+1-212-713 3014Michelle Kenel, CFA Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:michelle.kenel michelle.kenel+1-212-713 4896Brian Reynolds Associate Analyst HYPERLINK

25、mailto:brian.reynolds brian.reynolds+1-212-713 2563MLPs & Midstream 14 April 2019 31Q19 Earnings Tear SheetFigure 1: 1Q19 Earnings Tear SheetWinnersReason/CatalystWhere we could be wrongBPLUBS Evidence Lab Data showed an increase in its utilization at its Corpus FacilityContract rolls in its storage

26、 segment offsetETManagement could hint coming in towards the higher end of its guidanceFurther delays on projects/lower NGL pricing offset benefits of wider spreads YTD1Q19 EBITDA estimates have come down 15% since Jan 1, 2019 due to steady decline in the CMI uncontracted margins. We believe this ma

27、y be overdone as 25tbtu, or 10% of 1Qs estimated loadings, were in transit as of 12/31and should be recognized in 1Q19. With two new trains coming online (noting SPL 1 & 2 went down for maintenanceLNG runs its liquefaction terminals at 85% capacity during quarter. Further, with 2Q maintenanceLNGend

28、of March) and with 1Q19 historically having lower O&M, we see upside.pulled forward into 1Q, costs could be unexpectedly higher than usual.NSRecognize full PDVSA payment during the quarter; consensus looks lowBase business declines offsetTRPNEB approved incentives for Mainline (2018-2020 Tolls) in m

29、id-Dec; wide WTI- Brent spread (+ for MarketLink); higherUS pipeline vols from new projects due to seasonalityUncertainly around NEB decision on Coastal Gaslinks jurisdiction and Mexico contract renegotiation;Questions about Keystone XL FID delayWMBLower 2019 Capex and leverage outlook should be wel

30、l received by investors; in particular if new leverage target is4.5x or lower.Higher O&M costs; lower West G&P volsChallengedReason/CatalystWhere we could be wrongDCPLower NGL pricing negatively impacts quarterly resultsImprovement in costs after elevated 4Q18 due to maintenance in Permian and Eagle

31、 FordENBLCould revise down 2019 guidance due to lower NGL prices vs. November when initial guidance was announced.ENBL is historically conservative and maintains guidance.SEMGAnnounces dividend cut/eliminationBetter than expected base business earningsPBFXConsensus looks high, expect increased expen

32、sesEast Coast Storage assets could provide more benefit than expectedSource: UBS estimatesEarnings Read-Through MapDate ofDate ofNameTicker Release NameTicker ReleaseRelationshipNotesEnterpriseProduct PartnersEPD5/1/2019DCPMidstreamDCP5/6/2019Project PartnerPanolaNGLpipelineexpansion (EPD- 55%intere

33、st)Figure 2: Earnings Read-Through MapEnterprise Product PartnersEPD5/1/2019MPLXMPLX5/8/2019Project PartnerPanola NGL pipeline expansion (EPD - 55% interest)Exxon MobilXOM4/26/2019Genesis EnergyGEL5/3/2019CustomersAnchor shippers in Lucius discoveryAnadarko Petroleum Corp.APC4/30/2019*DCP MidstreamD

34、CP5/6/2019Project PartnerPanola NGL pipeline expansion (APC - 15% interest)Anadarko Petroleum Corp.APC4/30/2019*Enterprise ProductsEPD5/1/2019Project PartnerPanola NGL pipeline expansion (APC - 15% interest)Anadarko Petroleum Corp.APC4/30/2019*Genesis EnergyGEL5/3/2019*CustomersAnchor shippers in Lu

35、cius discoveryAnadarko Petroleum Corp.APC4/30/2019*MPLXMPLX5/8/2019Project PartnerPanola NGL pipeline expansion (APC - 15% interest)Anadarko Petroleum Corp.APC4/30/2019*Western Midstream PartnersWES4/30/2019*Subsidiary/ParentParent + significant customerMPLXMPLX5/8/2019DCP MidstreamDCP5/6/2019Projec

36、t PartnerPanola NGL pipeline expansion (MPLX - 15% interest)Dominion EnergyD5/3/2019Andeavor LogisticsANDX5/8/2019CustomerCustomer for the QEP Field Services gas business acquired in 4Q14Royal Dutch ShellRDSB5/2/2019Energy TransferET5/8/2019*Project Partnerlake charles LNG offtakerRoyal Dutch ShellR

37、DSB5/2/2019Genesis EnergyGEL5/3/2019*CustomersShipper in the Gulf of MexicoRoyal Dutch ShellRDSB5/2/2019Shell MidstreamSHLX5/2/2019GP OwnerPlans for drops and if MLP will be source of financing for BG acquisitionMagellan Midstream PartnersMMP4/30/2019SemGroup Corp.SEMG5/7/2019*CompetitorBuilding com

38、petitive pipeline to White Cliffs called SaddlehornPhillips 66PSX4/30/2019DCP MidstreamDCP5/6/2019Subsidiary/Parent50% owner of GPPioneer Natural ResourcesPXD5/6/2019Permian Weighted ExposureTRGP, ENLK, AMID, WES, MPLX, CEQPPlains All American PipelinePAA5/7/2019Genesis EnergyGEL5/3/2019*CustomersAn

39、chor shippers in Lucius discoveryPlains All American PipelinePAA5/7/2019SemGroup Corp.SEMG5/7/2019*Project PartnerPartner on White Cliffs and Partner on Competing MMP projectNoble Energy IncNBL5/3/2019Magellan MidstreamMMP4/30/2019CustomerSigned commitments to ship on SaddlehornNoble Energy IncNBL5/

40、3/2019SemGroup Corp.SEMG5/7/2019*Project PartnerPartner on White Cliffs and Partner on Competing MMP projectNoble Energy IncNBL5/3/2019Marcellus Weighted ExposureMPLX, CEQP, WMBNoble Energy IncNBL5/3/2019Niobrara Weighted ExposureCEQP, DCP, OKE, WES, WMBDevonDVN5/1/2019*EnLink MidstreamENLC4/30/2019

41、Subsidiary/ParentParent + significant customerWilliams CosWMB5/1/2019*Crestwood EquityCEQP4/30/2019*Project PartnerBucking Horse Processing Plant 50/50 JVWilliams CosWMB5/1/2019*DCP MidstreamDCP5/6/2019Project PartnerDiscovery natural gas gathering system (WMB - 60% interest)Enbridge Inc.ENB5/10/201

42、9*DCP MidstreamDCP5/6/2019Subsidiary/Parent50% owner of GPEncana CorpECA5/1/2019*Anadarko Weighted ExposureENBL, ENLK, TRGP, OKEConcho ResourcesCXO4/30/2019Permian Weighted ExposureTRGP, ENLK, AMID, WES, MPLXCrestwood EquityCEQP4/30/2019*Williams Cos LPWMB5/1/2019*Project PartnerBucking Horse Proces

43、sing Plant 50/50 JVRange ResourcesRRC4/22/2019Marcellus Weighted ExposureMPLX, CEQP, WMBWestern Midstream PartnersWES4/30/2019*SemGroup Corp.SEMG5/7/2019*Project PartnerPartner on White CliffsSemGroup Corp.SEMG5/7/2019*NGL Energy PartnersNGL5/29/2019*Project PartnerGlass Mountain also a competitor w

44、ith new NGL Grand Mesa pipelineDelek Logistics PartnersDKL5/6/2019Plains All AmericanPAA5/7/2019Project PartnerCaddo Pipeline 50/50 JVENI CorporationENI4/26/2019Genesis EnergyGEL5/3/2019*CustomersAnchor shippers in Lucius discoveryTransCanada Corp.TRP4/26/2019*TC PipeLinesTCP5/1/2019*GP OwnerHas a p

45、ipeline of assets plans to drop to TCP.EP EnergyEPE5/7/2019*Eagle Ford Weighted ExposureDCP, WMB, AMID, WESDenbury ResourcesDNR5/7/2019*Genesis EnergyGEL5/3/2019*CustomersCustomerDenbury ResourcesDNR5/7/2019*Gulf Coast Weighted ExposureWMBSM EnergySM5/2/2019*Eagle Ford Weighted ExposureDCP, WMB, AMI

46、D, WESWhiting PetroleumWLL4/30/2019*Bakken Weighted ExposureOKE, ENBL, CEQP, TRGP, AMIDOasis PetroleumOAS5/6/2019*Bakken Weighted ExposureOKE, ENBL, CEQP, TRGP, AMIDContinental ResourcesCLR4/29/2019STACK/SCOOP Weighted ExposureENBL, ENLK, OKE, TRGPContinental ResourcesCLR4/29/2019Bakken Weighted Exp

47、osureOKE, ENBL, CEQP, TRGP, AMIDEnergy TransferET5/8/2019*Genesis EnergyGEL5/3/2019*Project PartnerCHOPS (Cameron Highway Oil Pipeline System)Energy TransferET5/8/2019*Genesis EnergyGEL5/3/2019*Project PartnerSEKO Southeast Keathley Canyon Pipeline CompanyChesapeake Energy Corp.CHK5/1/2019*SemGroupS

48、EMG5/7/2019*Volume DriverMajor producer in the Mississippi Lime - indicator for SemGas businessChesapeake Energy Corp.CHK5/1/2019*Williams CosWMB5/1/2019*Volume DriverMajor Customer on former ACMP assetsCabot Oil & GasCOG4/26/2019Williams Cos LPWMB5/1/2019*Project PartnerConstitution Pipeline tenant

49、Cabot Oil & GasCOG4/26/2019Marcellus Weighted ExposureMPLX, CEQP, WMBApache CorporationAPA5/1/2019*Genesis EnergyGEL5/3/2019*CustomersAnchor shippers in Lucius discoveryOGE Energy Corp.OGE5/2/2019*Enable MidstreamENBL5/1/2019Subsidiary/Parent60% owner of GP + significant customer of transportation &

50、 storage segmentNGL Energy PartnersNGL5/29/2019*SemGroup Corp.SEMG5/7/2019*Project PartnerPart owner of Glass Mountain, Building competitor pipeline in NiobraraSummit Midstream PartnersSMLP5/2/2019*MPLXMPLX5/8/2019Project PartnerUtica condensate expansion project (stabilization facility)Source: UBS

51、estimates, Bloomberg, company release Note: * are estimated earnings release dates.C-Corps/General PartnersWhat you need to know about C-Corps & GPs before earningsENB: We look to see if management will lower 2020 guidance due to the Line 3 delay, as well as if its open to additional partners in COL

52、T, following the purchase of KMIs interest. KMI: Focus is going to be around the outcome of KMLs strategic review. There is a debate around the potential sales multiple and if it will include the Cochin pipeline as well as an emerging consensus that KMI will fold in KML and sell off the rest of the

53、pieces from KMI (excluding Cochin). LNG: Very active quarter with multiple moving parts as CMI margins declined 50% QoQ, early maintenance on SPL 1 & 2, and early in-service of SPL 5 and CCL 1. Questions for management will focus around 1) capital allocation strategy 2) CMI margins for 2019 with pot

54、ential guidance update 3) CQP simplification 3) FID of Train 6 & CCL Stage 3, 4) potential S&P inclusion. OKE will likely report flattish quarter as the Conway to Mt. Belvieu E&P spread declined again in 1Q and NGL prices were down 14% QOQ, while higher frac vols will likely offset. During the call,

55、 we will listen for color on the potential investment in a LPG export terminal which seems to be a missing element in OKEs value chain, as well as on update on Elk Creek and potential expansion. Frac capacity will likely remain topical (Will OKE announce MB6?). We expect TRGP will miss Cons in 1Q as

56、 NGL prices were down, there will be no splitter payment and on lower LPG exports (per BBG). During the call, the focus will likely be on a funding program for 2019, low Waha and NGL prices and completion timing of new projects. TRP should benefit from the NEBs decision on Mainline tolls, strong sea

57、sonal volumes from U.S. natural gas pipelines (incl. recently completed projects) and wide Brent-WTI spread. During TRPs call, we will listen for more color on NEBs evaluation whether Coastal GasLink should remain under BCs jurisdiction. We expect also to hear an update on the progress on Keystone X

58、L and any change in expected FID post recent new Presidential Permit. Update on asset sales and funding for 2019 will likely be topical. Reuters article noted a potential same of midstream assets in the Northeast. SEMG focus is going to around its dividend as more question if management will cut it

59、to help de-lever. Post recent transactions, WMB plans to update its 2019 guidance with 1Q earnings and we expect it will revise down its capex and leverage outlook, which should be well-received by investors.Figure 3: Earnings Release Dates and UBS EstimatesTickerDateTimeUBSeEBITDAConsensusEBITDA% D

60、iffUBSeDistribution/DividendActualDistribution/DividendUBSe 2019Growth CapexUBSe2019 DCFENB-CA$3,505.41$3,460.711.3%$0.7381$6,600$8,789ENLC5/1/2019BMO$260.85$259.880.4%$0.2825$645$719LNG5/9/2019BMO$614.68$621.39-1.1%$0.0000$2,350$582KMI4/17/2019AMC$1,900.02$1,926.40-1.4%$0.2500$3,091$4,627OKE4/30/20