香港房地產(chǎn)展望：攀登恐懼之墻

1、Hong KongEquitiesREMD2020 Outlook: Scaling the wall of fearHong Kong Real EstateTHIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINAWe think the negative news about weak economic growth is largely reflected in share prices and consensus estimatesValuations look attractive; inflection point likely i

2、n mid-2020eCK Asset, New World Development, Hongkong Land, Swire Prop and Hang Lung Prop (all Buys) are our preferred stocksA stormy start recession, unemployment and subdued sentiment. We expect 1H20 to be a difficult period for the Hong Kong real estate market, driven by a weak economy and a decli

3、ne in the tourism-related business. Our Economics team expects multiple headwinds to continue to weigh on external and domestic demand, and near- term improvement appears unlikely (Hong Kong Economy, 12 Dec 2019). We forecast Hong Kong residential prices to fall 5-10%, and office and retail rent to

4、decline 3-5% and13 January 2020Raymond Liu*, CFA AnalystThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:raymond.w.m.liu.hk raymond.w.m.liu.hk+852 2996 6743Michelle Kwok*Head of Real Estate Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK ma

5、ilto:michellekwok.hk michellekwok.hk+852 2996 6918Albert Tam* AnalystThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:albert.p.h.tam.hk albert.p.h.tam.hk+852 2822 4395Ganesh Siva* Associate Bangalore5-10%, respectively, in the next six months before stabilisation. However, we b

6、elieve the valuations have largely discounted the prevailing macro headwinds. The sector trades at a 53% NAV discount, 1.0SD below its 10-year average. This is similar to the valuations seen in 2015 and 2018. In this report, we highlight eight reasons (Fig 14 on page 8) why we believe investors shou

7、ld capture this investment opportunity.Every cloud has a silver lining. It is a challenging time for the Hong Kong property market, but we argue that things should improve from here. The housing policy direction has changed from a stance of tightening to loosening, as seen by the mortgage relaxation

8、 in October 2019. Over the past five months, the government has introduced four rounds of stimulus measures to stabilise the local economy. These should provide good support to the local real estate market. Many companies are proactively looking to secure growth via acquisitions instead of cutting t

9、heir capex, which suggests investors should not be too pessimistic.Sub-sector preference Office Retail Residential. We think office and retail landlords look attractive from a valuation perspective. Alibabas listing in November 2019, the third-largest IPO in HKs history, showcases the attractiveness

10、 of the financial market despite the recent volatility. It will benefit office landlords, as many of their tenants engage in financial activities. Retail landlords are facing challenges similar to the previous downturn in 2013-17, but some have successfully managed to deliver growth via acquisitions

11、. They have de-rated significantly and their valuations are becoming more attractive, in our view. Developers with more exposure to the mass market segment should continue to perform well given the policy support.Key upgrades and downgrades. We favour companies with diversified sources of earnings w

12、hich can continue to grow despite the challenging market. We upgrade Hongkong Land, Champion REIT and Wharf Holdings to Buy from Hold, and downgrade Sino Land and Wheelock to Hold from Buy. We downgrade Langham, Henderson Land and Hysan Development to Reduce from Hold. Catalysts: 1) an improvement i

13、n monthly retail sales growth, especially in 2H20e, 2) more vibrant IPO activities in Hong Kong, anda strong take-up rate in primary sales.Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report mu

14、st be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https: HYPERLINK / /Focus charts the big pictureFig 1. Housin

15、g prices likely to drop 5-10% in 2020eFig 2. HK property prices since the 1990s20018016014012010080604020Jan/00 Jan/01 Feb/02 Feb/03 Mar/04 Mar/05 Apr/06 May/07 May/08 Jun/09 Jun/10 Jul/11 Aug/12 Aug/13 Sep/14 Sep/15 Oct/16 Oct/17 Nov/18 Dec/190200-4%-13%+25%-7%+48%+78%-5%+31%-23%2020e to godown by

16、5-10%+133%1801601401201008060402034,00030,00026,00022,00018,00014,00010,0006,000Jan-94 Mar-99 May-04 Jul-09 Sep-14 Nov-19Property price (LHS)Hang Seng Index (RHS)Source: Centaline, HSBC estimates; Index = 100 as of July 1997Source: Centaline, Bloomberg, HSBC; Index = 100 as of July 1997Fig 3. Quarte

17、rly retail sales growth in Hong KongFig 4. Hong Kong retail sales versus the exchange rate of RMB-HKD40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)30%25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)(20%)(25%)(30%)% y-o-y change in retail sales (LHS)% y-o-y change in CNYUSD (RHS)15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)Source: Real Estate Intelligence

18、 Services (REIS) - Jones Lang LaSalle, HSBCSource: Census and Statistics Department, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCFig 5. Office rental growthFig 6. Vacancy rate across the sub- districts of Hong Kong (end-Dec 2019)18015012090603000%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%14%1S.D. band (5-year avg) Latest vacancy12 mont

19、h average12%10%8%6%4%2%0%4Q994Q034Q074Q114Q154Q19Central rent (HKDpsfpm, LHS) Vacancy rate (%, RHS)Source: Real Estate Intelligence Services (REIS) - Jones Lang LaSalle, HSBCSource: JLL, HSBCPreferred stocksCK Asset 1113 HKCurrent price:HKD54.85Target price:BuyHKD73.30Up/downside:+33.6%CK Asset has

20、showcased its execution capability in terms of sourcing opportunities and achieving growth worldwide, which most of its local peers would find hard to achieve. Its recent successful acquisition of Greene King, one of the leading integrated brewers and pub retailers in the UK, is a good example. With

21、 a more diversified and resilient income stream, CKA deserves to trade at a better valuation to its peers, in our view. It is also well positioned to offset the economic weakness in Hong Kong.We estimate its recurrent income to likely double within the five year period of 2016-20e due to its strateg

22、ic moves.Its 2020e contracted sales in Hong Kong should pick up given the launch of its mass market project in Tseung Kwan O.The company is trading at 0.54x FY20e PB, 7.8x FY20e PE, a 54% discount to NAV; it offers a 4.2% FY20e dividend yield.New World Development 17 HKCurrent price:HKD10.60Target p

23、rice:BuyHKD12.70Up/downside:+19.8%NWD has been accelerating its pace of expansion following the successful redevelopment of the Victoria Dockside project. With a stronger recurrent income and bigger balance sheet, NWD should be equipped to grow from acquisitions in the next few years. Its solid pipe

24、line in rental properties and increasing presence in the Greater Bay Area should help drive sustainable earnings growth.We expect NWD to launch the largest mass/mid-end residential project (3,090 units) in Tai Wai, which could present a positive surprise to the market.What to expect? 1) Faster proje

25、ct acquisition in GBA and 2) good property sales performance in Hong Kong and Shenzhen.The company is trading at 0.48x FY21e PB, 12.1x FY21e PE, a 51% discount to NAV; it offers a 5.4% FY21e dividend yield.Hongkong LandHKL SPCurrent price:USD5.74Target price:Upgrade to BuyUSD6.90Up/downside:+20.2%We

26、 believe the market is too pessimistic about the rental outlook of HKLs Central office portfolio. Its share price went down by 20% over the past nine months, and its current valuation looks unjustified, in our view. While rising vacancy rate could exert some pressure on rental income, HKL successful

27、ly managed its Central office portfolio with a long weighted average lease expiry of 4.7 years. A buoyant IPO equity market could provide good support to the demand of the office market, as c70% of its office tenants are engaged in financial activities.Its weighted average lease expiry increased fro

28、m 3.7 years by end-2017 to 4.7% by the end of September 2019.We expect HKLs overall net rental income growth to come in at 6.2% y-o-y in 2019e and 0.8% y-o-y in 2020e.The company is trading at 0.34x FY20e PB, 12.7x FY20e PE, a 47% discount to NAV; it offers a 4.2% FY20e dividend yield.Swire Properti

29、es 1972 HKCurrent price:HKD25.10Target price:BuyHKD34.30Up/downside:+36.7%While there has been a slowdown in office demand given the weakening global economy, SWP should be better placed compared with other office landlords given its high exposure to non-Central areas and its solid project pipelines

30、, in our view. On top of its growing HK office portfolio (half of the revenue), its mainland China rental portfolio is growing rapidly and is becoming another key source of growth driver. We expect the company to complete two commercial projects in mainland China in 2020.We expect the company to dec

31、lare a full-year 2019 DPS of HKD0.89, up 6.0% y-o-y, or a CAGR growth of 7.8% between 2016 and 2019.SWPs IP portfolio could expand by 10% to 24.1m sqft in the next two years on the completion of Shanghais Taikoo Li Qiantan and Beijings Taikoo Li Sanlitun West in 2020 (GFA of 0.9m sqft), and Two Taik

32、oo Place (GFA of 1.2m sqft) in 2021-22.The company is trading at 0.47x FY20e PB, 17.3x FY20e PE, a 54% discount to NAV; it offers a 3.6% FY20e dividend yield.Hang Lung Properties 101 HKCurrent price:HKD18.00Target price:BuyHKD22.40Up/downside:+24.4%HLP is one of the best performers in 2019 with a sh

33、are price growth of 15% (versus flattish performance of the sector). We continue to like HLP in 2020 and believe the re-rating process of the company is only mid-way through. Its growth momentum in its mainland China portfolio should persist in 2020, thanks to 1) incremental rental contribution afte

34、r asset enhancement in Shanghai; 2) new rental income from Kunming and Wuhan projects; and 3) positive wealth effect that is encouraging spending in malls.We expect the company to increase its DPS in 1H20e, reversing its previous DPS cut in 2H15.Net rental income growth should continue after acceler

35、ating 3.2% y-o-y in 1H19 (+6.1% in 2H18).The company is trading at 0.59x FY20e PB, 16.5x FY20e PE, a 46% discount to NAV; it offers a 4.3% FY20e dividend yield.Source: HSBC estimates. Priced at 6 January 2020Key changes and valuation summaryFig 7. Changes to our ratings and target prices Changes to

36、our ratings Upside/ Changes to our target prices (HKD)TickerOldNewDownside (%)OldNew% diffHong Kong developersCK Asset1113 HKBuyBuy34%73.9073.30-0.8%Henderson Land12 HKHoldD/G to Reduce-10%37.6033.90-9.8%New World Development17 HKBuyBuy20%12.7012.700.0%Sino Land83 HKBuyD/G to Hold11%14.7012.60-14.3%

37、Sun Hung Kai Properties16 HKBuyBuy16%145.20136.00-6.3%Wharf Holdings4 HKHoldU/G to Buy17%19.1023.3022.0%Wheelock20 HKBuyD/G to Hold7%58.8055.40-5.8%Average-2.2%Hong Kong landlordsHang Lung Properties101 HKBuyBuy24%23.8022.40-5.9%HKLand (USD)HKL SPHoldU/G to Buy20%6.506.906.2%Hysan14 HKHoldD/G to Red

38、uce-14%36.2026.70-26.2%Kerry Properties683 HKBuyBuy23%31.5030.20-4.1%MTR Corp66 HKBuyBuy16%57.7053.00-8.1%Swire Properties Ltd1972 HKBuyBuy37%35.0034.30-2.0%Wharf REIC1997 HKBuyBuy18%56.7053.10-6.3%Average-6.6%REITs & TrustsChampion REIT2778 HKHoldU/G to Buy17%6.105.90-3.3%Fortune REIT778 HKBuyBuy23

39、%12.3011.10-9.8%Langham Hospitality1270 HKHoldD/G to Reduce-20%3.111.87-39.9%Link REIT823 HKBuyBuy18%96.3095.80-0.5%MNACT (SGD)MAGIC SPBuyBuy14%1.331.32-0.8%Average-10.8%Average (overall)-6.1%Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimatesFig 8. Changes to core profit (2019-21e) Old estimates New estimates % diff

40、 (HKDm)2019e2020e2021e2019e2020e2021e2019e2020e2021eHong Kong developersCK Asset30,39726,28126,55330,40025,88424,9630.0%-1.5%-6.0%Henderson Land16,29818,23317,49916,25817,54417,113-0.2%-3.8%-2.2%New World Development8,9299,63112,0098,8328,97711,199-1.1%-6.8%-6.7%Sino Land6,09510,4486,7895,74910,4685

41、,912-5.7%0.2%-12.9%Sun Hung Kai Properties34,77734,57334,45132,84432,15635,794-5.6%-7.0%3.9%Wharf Holdings6,5696,6896,6906,5366,6826,793-0.5%-0.1%1.5%Wheelock14,62715,45518,08214,58415,01616,040-0.3%-2.8%-11.3%Average-1.9%-3.1%-4.8%Hong Kong landlordsHang Lung Properties4,2815,1015,5114,2064,9085,20

42、7-1.8%-3.8%-5.5%HKLand (USDm)1,0571,0631,2011,0571,0561,1640.0%-0.7%-3.1%Hysan2,6672,7382,8042,6282,6572,690-1.5%-3.0%-4.1%Kerry Properties5,5205,8116,4225,5205,5976,2670.0%-3.7%-2.4%MTR Corp11,86114,04814,25610,65012,48612,579-10.2%-11.1%-11.8%Swire Properties Ltd22,6288,7079,00222,5788,5068,682-0.

43、2%-2.3%-3.6%Wharf REIC10,46211,01711,50210,25610,57010,777-2.0%-4.1%-6.3%Average-2.2%-4.1%-5.2%REITs & TrustsChampion REIT1,6031,6641,7301,6031,6461,7020.0%-1.1%-1.6%Fortune REIT1,0241,1081,1851,0241,0831,1200.0%-2.3%-5.5%Langham Hospitality408420427276155199-32.4%-63.1%-53.4%Link REIT6,1616,6307,13

44、56,1536,6787,112-0.1%0.7%-0.3%MNACT (SGDm)195240245192237243-1.5%-1.3%-0.8%Average-6.8%-13.4%-12.3%Average (overall)-3.3%-6.2%-7.0%Source: HSBC estimates; MNACT & Link REIT are March year end and 2019e refers to FY 3/2020HSBC vs. ConsensusOur overall earnings forecasts are 3.0% below consensus for 2

45、020 and 4.0% below for 2021. If we exclude Langham Hospitality, our forecast would be 1.3% and 2.0% below consensus for 2020-21, respectively.We note that earnings consensus for some property companies were revised up over the past three months (Fig. 10). We believe the market has largely projected

46、an overly pessimistic scenario and underestimates the resiliency of the Hong Kong real estate market. Over the past few cycles (2003, 2008, 2015 and 2018), we note that the pace of recovery was fast given the sound fundamentals of the Hong Kong economy.Fig 9. Core profit HSBC vs. Consensus (2019-21e

47、)(HKDm)2019e2020e2021e2019e2020e2021e2019e2020e2021eHong Kong developersCK Asset30,40025,88424,96328,83924,54824,7295.4%5.4%0.9%Henderson Land16,25817,54417,11315,93716,92217,0432.0%3.7%0.4%New World Development8,8328,97711,1998,9139,48010,536-0.9%-5.3%6.3%Sino Land5,74910,4685,9125,03010,0097,85514

48、.3%4.6%-23.2%Sun Hung Kai Properties32,84432,15635,79434,25336,68735,515-4.1%-12.4%0.8%Wharf Holdings6,5366,6826,7936,6687,3287,629-2.0%-8.8%-11.0%Wheelock14,58415,01616,04015,25015,81317,235-4.4%-5.0%-6.9%Average1.5%-2.5%-6.1%Hong Kong landlordsHang Lung Properties4,2064,9085,2074,4784,8325,036-6.1

49、%1.6%3.4%HKLand (USDm)1,0571,0561,1641,0511,1071,1630.6%-4.6%0.1%Hysan2,6282,6572,6902,6642,6642,873-1.4%-0.3%-6.4%Kerry Properties5,5205,5976,2675,4725,5275,8810.9%1.3%6.6%MTR Corp10,65012,48612,57911,59413,02113,881-8.1%-4.1%-9.4%Swire Properties Ltd22,5788,5068,68214,4358,3258,75356.4%2.2%-0.8%Wh

50、arf REIC10,25610,57010,77710,07710,24910,4331.8%3.1%3.3%Average6.3%-0.1%-0.5%REITs & TrustsChampion REIT1,6031,6461,7021,6901,7301,760-5.1%-4.8%-3.3%Fortune REIT1,0241,0831,1209621,0201,0976.4%6.2%2.1%Langham Hospitality27615519923223633619.0%-34.3%-40.8%Link REIT6,1536,6787,1125,9996,3946,862-2.5%-

51、4.3%-3.5%MNACT (SGDm) 192237243190232255-1.0%-2.1%-4.9% HSBC estimates Bloomberg consensus % diff Average3.4%-7.9%-8.1%Average (overall)3.7%-3.0%-4.0%Source: HSBC estimates; MNACT & Link REIT are March year end and 2019e refers to FY 3/2020Fig 10. Change in consensus 2020e earnings forecastsLast 12m

52、DevelopersLandlordsLast 6mREITsLast 3mLast 1m20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%CK AssetHenderson LandNew World DevSino LandSun Hung KaiWharfWheelockHang Lung PropHK LandHysanKerry PropMTRCSwire PropWharf REICChampion REITFortune REITLink REITMapletree. N. Asia-20%Source: Bloomberg, HSBC.6 Jan Target ImpliedMa

53、rket3MEst.CurrentYieldPBNeStockprice price Upside/capADTVNAV(disc)/prem Share price Core PE (x) (%)(x) Gear. (%)CompanycodeRating(HKD) (HKD) Downside(%)(USDbn)(USDm)(HKD/sh)(%)52w low52w high2019e2020e2019e2019e 2019eFig 11. Hong Kong developers, REITs, and landlordsHong Kong developersCK Asset1113

54、HKBuy54.8573.3034%26.138.9118.2(54)49.03.80.5714Henderson Land12 HKReduce37.7533.90-10%23.521.372.1(48)36.646.40.5929New World Development17 HKBuy10.6012.7020%14.025.121.7(51)8.913.912.3841Sino Land83 HKHold11.3212.6011%10.18.024.7(54)10.615.50.52 netcashSun

55、 Hung Kai Properties16 HKBuy117.40136.0016%43.869.6219.3(46)106.0142.010.5013Wharf Holdings4 HKBuy19.8423.3017%7.813.651.8(62)16.33.30.4419Wheelock20 HKHold52.0055.407%13.76.7108.6(52)43.43.20.4124Average(53)0.5220Hong Kong landlordsHang Lung Properties101 HKB

56、uy18.0022.4024%10.410.533.4(46)14.420.519.3922HKLand (USD)HKL SPBuy5.746.9020%13.513.510.9(47)5.27.512.712.74.00.3410Hysan14 HKReduce30.9026.70-14%4.212.463.5(51)28.445.012.312.25.00.438Kerry Properties683 HKBuy24.6530.2023%4.65.867.1(63)637MTR Corp66 HKBuy45.5053.0016%

57、36.127.049.5(8)39.555.81.5318Swire Properties Ltd1972 HKBuy25.1034.3037%18.910.554.5(54)22.534.76.547Wharf REIC1997 HKBuy45.1553.1018%17.621.684.3(46)40.661.313.413.04.90.6119Average(45)13.8117REITs & TrustsChampion REIT*2778 HK Buy5.035.9017%(15)4.86.918.618.

58、05.40.4317Fortune REIT*778 HKBuy9.0311.1023%9248.711.30.5421Langham Hospitality Inv.*1270 HKReduce2.341.87-20%232.03.312.212.08.20.3834Link REIT*823 HKBuy81.1595.8018%21.867.295.8(15)75.599.829.9011Mapletree NAC Trust*MAGICBuy1.161.3214%2.710.41.3(13)1.11.520.5

59、037(SGD)SPAverage(8)19.7124Note: *Core PE refers to price/distribution (x) and Yield refers to DPU yield, while net debt/equity refers to gross debt/total assets. Latest prices at close of 6 January 2020. Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimatesFig 12. NAV discount for HK property secto

60、r (versus 10-year average)10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%-80%1011121314151617181920% to NAV +1 SD Mean -1 SDSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesFig 13. 12-month forward PE ratio (versus 10-year average)23211917151311972010201120122013201420152016201720182019202012M fwd PE (x) +1 SD Mean -1