黃金展望：避風(fēng)港

1、GlobalCommoditiesPrecious MetalsGold OutlookShelter from the stormGold boosted by COVID-19-inspired “safe haven” demand; massive global fiscal and monetary stimuli highly supportiveETF demand surges but Comex longs pared; EM buyers retreat on high prices; coin and bar demand recovering; central bank

2、 buying diminishing; mine output steady as scrap supplies jumpWe raise our average forecasts to USD1,743/oz for 2020 and USD1,690/oz for 2021, from USD1,613/oz and USD1,575/ozGold outlookGold prices, which were already rallying well before the emergence of COVID-19, are benefiting further from pande

3、mic-related investor demand. The rally was interrupted with prices falling to near USD1,450/oz in March as investors faced equity margin calls and a need to raise USDs. Gold resumed the upside bolstered by widespread retail and institutional buying, as investors seek bullion for its quality asset ch

4、aracteristics. The health, financial and economic uncertainties generated by the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath are likely to continue to support golds rally well into 2021, we believe.Monetary and fiscal stimuli supportive; central banks back awayThe near unprecedented fiscal and momentary pea

5、cetime response to COVID-19 supplies gold with two substantial bullish inputs: liquidity and debt. We believe low interest rates, monetary accommodation and fiscal spending across the world for the foreseeable future will cement and extend golds rally, as investors target bullion for its hard asset

6、characteristics and liquidity. Low oil prices however are reducing some central banks demand for gold. The strong USD has not impeded golds rally so far, but may do if the greenback strengthens further.Investment will likely increase; EM demand weakeningETF demand is at record highs and could increa

7、se further. Net long positions on the Comex have pared from record highs earlier this year but may rebuild. Coin and bar demand is recovering from depressed levels. Mine output will likely increase modestly but recycled scrap is increasing rapidly. High prices, especially in local currency terms in

8、the emerging world, and the impact of COVID-19 have significantly diminished jewelry and other forms of physical demand. This should free up substantial amounts of gold for investment and thus help cap or at least constrain the rally.HSBC average gold price forecastsJames SteelChief Precious Metals

9、Analyst HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:james.steel james.steel+1 212 525 311715 April 2020USD/oz 2020f 2021f 2022f Long Term OldNewOldNewOldNewOldNewGold1,6131,7431,5751,6901,4651,5501,4251,500 2020 Institutional Investor surveyIf you value our service and insights, please voteII Resear

10、ch has acquired the Extel survey Voting extended click here to vote Note: Long term = five years. Year-end 2020 and 2021 forecasts are USD1,875/oz and USD1,755/oz, respectively. Source: HSBCDisclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Di

11、sclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) IncView HSBC Global Research at:https HYPERLINK / :/ContentsTOC o 1-2 h z u HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Executive summary 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Investment demand key to prices 3 HYPERLINK l _TO

12、C_250013 Investment case for gold 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Gold shines bright in hard times 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Trade and geopolitics 10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Investment market trends 12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Exchange traded funds 12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Commitments of traders 13 HYPER

13、LINK l _TOC_250007 Central bank demand 14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Trends in demand 16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 A tough year will stay tough 16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Trends in supply 22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Gold mine supply 22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Recycling 24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Disclosur

14、e appendix 27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Disclaimer 29Executive summaryGold is benefiting from COVID-19-inspired uncertainties and economic dislocation; global monetary and fiscal policy response is highlyprice-supportiveMine increases limited as scrap surges; central bank demand declining; heavy ETF p

15、urchases may continue, Comex longs pared, may rebuildWe see gold upside and raise our 2020/21 forecasts to USD1,743/oz and 1,690/oz, respectively; EM demand likely to set a ceiling on pricesInvestment demand key to pricesGold prices rallied 18% in 2019, well ahead of COVID-19ETF longs have jumped to

16、 record highs while Comex longs have eased this yearGold likes accommodative policesThe flows are going back to goldGold prices rallied 18% in 2019, proof that bullion was already in a well-entrenched bull market ahead of the coronavirus pandemic. Since then gold has rallied further, an indirect ben

17、eficiary of the crisis and investors response to economic uncertainty. The emergence of COVID-19 has dramatically altered the global economy, severely undermining financial markets, disrupting international trade and investment and impacting commodities, including the demand for and price of gold. W

18、e believe the gold bull market is being further energized and boosted by the fallout from the pandemic and is likely to stay strong. Gold prices traded above USD1,700/oz in late March but dropped sharply to USD1,450/oz on heavy margin-related liquidation in the aftermath of falling equities. Investo

19、rs have since returned to gold and pressed prices well above USD1,700/oz.Investor demand strongGold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) holdings jumped 326t in 2019 and look set to move considerably higher this year. After starting the year over 81.46moz, ETF holdings are currently 92.46moz as of writing.

20、Investor appetite for gold seems undiminished by higher prices and we believe there is sufficient safe haven demand to drive ETF holdings higher, perhaps by 18moz or 560t by year-end. The pace of demand is likely to ease in 2021 as we move away from the pandemic, but still be positive, we believe. N

21、et long positions on the Comex hit a record 38moz earlier this year but have since been pared on margin-related liquidation. But here also we look for builds later in the year. We illustrate changes in ETF holdings since 2007 in Chart 2.Fiscal and monetary response bullish: USD a factorGold likes li

22、quidity and usually prospers in periods of monetary accommodation. It did so in the 1970s and more recently during the Global Financial Crisis. The monetary response to the COVID- 19 crisis is at least on the scale of the Global Financial Crisis. In addition to liquidity, gold likes debt. The worlds

23、 governments to varying degrees are expanding government spending, which is piling up debt. The need for massive fiscal support right now is clear. The US has passed a USD2.3trn package and as of writing, Japan is in the process of significantly increasing fiscal stimulus. Other countries are making

24、 similar efforts. While opening up the government pocketbook is needed, it is likely that at some point the gap between the jump in spending and the big fall-off in revenues will have to be addressed. These developments are traditionally good for gold and should help sustain the rally. A feature of

25、the gold market in 2019 and this year was golds ability to rally in the face of a firm USD. A firm USD is ostensibly gold bearish. Even so, it is possible that were the USD to strengthen notably further, gold could be negatively impacted.Gold and exchange-traded funds10080Moz604020-Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan

26、-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20Gold in ETFs (LHS)Gold price USD/oz (RHS)2,0001,8001,6001,400USD/oz1,2001,000800600400200-Source: Bloomberg, HSBCJewelry demand is weak so far this yearCentral bank gold demand was strong in 2018-19 but will likely weake

27、n this yearHeavy recycling rates should support supplyPhysical buying weak; but coin & bar recoveringWhile gold prices are often dominated by short-term investment flows, underlying physical consumption is key to shaping long-term prices. Aggregate gold demand, including central bank purchases, ease

28、d last year to 4,281t 113t below aggregate demand in 2018 of 4,394t. Jewelry traditionally accounts for about half of physical demand. We expect demand to be significantly lower this year based on high prices in local currency terms for key EM consumers and the negative impact of coronavirus-related

29、 lockdowns, and declines in income. Jewelry demand may not improve notably until 2021. Partially offsetting this is an increase in coin and bar demand by retail and institutional investors seeking safety from economic fallout.Central bank gold demand jumped sharply in 2018 rising to 657t, a 75% incr

30、ease from 2017 and stayed strong at 650t last year. But we believe demand will drop sharply this year as major oil exporters including Russia and Kazakhstan big buyers in recent years may not have available forex reserves for gold purchases due to low oil prices. Other central banks may wish to cons

31、erve USDs as trade flows have been disrupted.Supply is upMining is the single biggest supply source for gold. 2019 saw global production drop 45t from 2018s record levels to 3,464t. Sharply higher prices and new projects in the pipeline may squeeze out a little more production this year. However, mi

32、ne shut-ins due to COVID-19 will impede growth. The increase in exploration budgets may not yield fruit immediately, although high prices are an incentive to squeeze out production. Longer term, the lack of mega discoveries will curb production as investment concentrates on immediate and near comple

33、tion projects. Recycling rates are price-sensitive and we believe high prices, and economic distress, are encouraging a substantial increase in recycling, which should impact supply/demand balances and increase gold available for investors. Recycled gold could increase by 260t over 2019 to 1,564t, b

34、ut ease to 1,465t in 2021.We raise our average price forecasts for 2020, 2021, 2022 and long term to USD1,743/oz, USD1,690/oz, USD1,550/oz and long term to USD1,500/oz respectively, from USD1,613/oz, USD1,575/oz, USD1,465/oz and USD1,425/oz respectively We expect a year-end price of USD1,875/oz for

35、2020 and USD1,755/oz for 2021. We look for a wide USD1,550-1,980/oz trading range for the remainder of this year.Gold: Supply/demand balance actuals and forecasts(tonnes)2014201520162017201820192020f2021fSupplyMine production3,2033,2893,3973,4553,5093,4643,4753,550Official sector net sales-584-577-3

36、90-377-657-650-300-400Old gold scrap1,1881,1211,2811,1561,1761,3041,5641,465Producer hedging1051333-24-1385050Total supply3,9123,8464,3214,2104,0154,1264,7894,665DemandJewelry2,5322,4582,1012,2372,2402,1071,9072,057Electronics277262256266268263240250Dentistry2019181715141414Other industrial uses5151

37、505151504648Other fabrication348332324334335327300312Total fabrications2,8802,7902,4252,5712,5752,4342,2072,369Bar hoarding780790797782778580660700Official coins205224207188242224255240Medals8076687573676868Exchange-traded funds-172-12257520669326560156Total investment demand8939681,6471,2511,1621,1

38、971,5431,164Total demand3,7733,7584,0723,8223,7373,6313,7503,533Balance = net investment139882493882784951,0391,132Gold price (average, USD/oz)1,2661,1601,2511,2571,2681,3931,7431,690Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council, GFMS, HSBCInvestment case for goldGold gains as investors seek sanctuary fr

39、om the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic; financial uncertainty supports inflows to goldGold is buoyed by unprecedented monetary and fiscal response to crisis as investors assess long-term implications of these policiesA strong USD may present headwinds to rallies; an ongoing flat yield curv

40、e and trade weakness may further aid goldGold shines bright in hard timesThe COVID-19 pandemic has altered the demand for and price of goldAn equitable metalThe investment case for gold is strong. The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically altered the global economy, undermining financial markets, disru

41、pting international trade and investment and impacting commodities, including the demand for and price of gold. We believe the gold bull market already in progress well before the emergence of COVID-19 is being further energized and boosted by the fallout from the pandemic.The investor impact on gol

42、d of the pandemic is twofold, both of which are bullish:One is the immediate need for investor sanctuary from the economic and financial disruptions caused by the pandemic. The closing down of huge swaths of the global economy due to health hazards, national lockdowns keeping tens of millions of wor

43、kers around the globe from their places of employment, rocketing unemployment and the threat of severe recession have sent investors fleeing into perceived safe-haven and quality assets, with gold at or near the top of the list.The other factor is likely to be longer lasting and possibly more powerf

44、ul. The unprecedented peacetime monetary and fiscal response to the economic and social dislocations of the pandemic is clearly gold-bullish. Low interest rates in real and nominal terms, expanding central bank balance sheets, central bank intervention in the economy and huge fiscal packages are all

45、 individually gold-friendly but taken together are notably bullish. The long-term consequences of these measures are as of yet unknown. But the escalation in debt combined with highly accommodative monetary policies make gold attractive.Gold price (inverted, USD) and S&P500 index level1,1501,2501,35

46、01,4501,5501,6501,7503,6003,4003,2003,0002,8002,6002,4002,2002,000Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20 Gold (LHS, inverted)S&P 500 Index (RHS)Source: Bloomberg, HSBCGold has acted as a highly liquid asset when investors need USDsGold was already in a bull market before COVID-

47、19Golds path upwards has by no means been a one-way ride. Massive and sustained equity market losses, the likes of which have not been seen since the Global Financial Crisis 12 years ago, triggered heavy margin-related liquidation of gold in March, knocking the market from above USD1,700/oz to USD1,

48、450/oz (see chart 4 on previous page). This led some to doubt golds value as a relative safe haven or portfolio diversifier. We do not subscribe to this view. Gold acted as a highly liquid asset to be utilized in time of need. Investors liquidated gold to meet margin calls or raise cash, notably USD

49、s. In this sense bullion fulfilled its role as a “safe haven” and quality asset. Gold has since recovered and is above late February levels and continues to rally. A feature of the gold market for much of 2019 was its ability to trade higher in the face of robust equities. We do not believe therefor

50、e that further equity gains will necessarily undermine bullion.Already in a bull marketWhile it is easy to ascribe golds rally to the impact of the coronavirus, that would not tell the whole story. In our previous Gold Outlook 2020: Global risks to keep gold brisk (10 January 2020), and more recentl

51、y in Gold Special bull market continues (9 March 2020), we presented a positive outlook for gold going forward. Low rates, geopolitical and trade tensions and financial market uncertainty over high equity valuations, all contributed to gold gains. Gold had already rallied 18% in 2019, much of it des

52、pite a strong USD and equity market. We believe many of these same features will continue to support gold going forward in addition to COVID-19-related demand.Strong USD broke the traditional gold/yield curve relationship from May 2018 onward1,7001,6001,5001,4001,3001,2001,100Jan-161,000-0.20.00.20.

53、1.21.4Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-201.6Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Gold (USD/oz)US 10s-2s yield spread (RHS,inverted)Source: Bloomberg, HSBCGold likes liquidity and prospers in times of monetary accommodationGold is not yieldingGold likes liquidity and

54、 usually prospers in periods of monetary accommodation; it did so in the 1970s and more recently during the Global Financial Crisis. The monetary response to the COVID-19 crisis is at least on the scale of the Global Financial Crisis. According to HSBCs Chief Global Economist Janet Henry in Global E

55、conomics: Shockdown (2 April) nearly 40 central banks cut rates (along with a raft of asset purchase programs, liquidity measures and FX intervention) in the space of a week in late March. Additionally the speed with which the Fed established swap lines with a larger number of central banks around t

56、he world clearly demonstrated its role as the worlds central banker, providing USDs. Moreover, on 31 March the Fed extended its global reach further. It will now take US Treasuries as collateral from foreign central banks and lend them dollars for a short period, which should help to ease dollar fun

57、ding pressures and mean a reduced need to sell Treasuries.Growth in negative-yielding sovereign debt has been especially gold bullishMs. Henry points out that the aim of central banks is clear and she states monetary authorities may well extend their measures further in the coming months on both the

58、 fiscal and the monetary sides. Yield curve control may become more prevalent, as might policies that effectively amount to debt monetization, cautions Ms. Henry. Low yields and the shape of the yield curve are already gold-supportive. Growth in negative-yielding sovereign debt has been especially b

59、ullish (see chart 6 below). But most policymakers are also well aware that not only does the unprecedented nature of the crisis mean there are doubts about the effectiveness of such policies in the near term, but also that the actions they take now will have long-lasting consequences. This combinati

60、on of extreme monetary accommodation, the possibility of more to come, and some level of doubt over policies effectiveness and their longer-term and possibly inflationary consequences, are tailor made for a gold rally.The Fed has taken significant action. In Fed coordinated easing: Expansive action