飛輪電池生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃的制定

1、31/31飛輪電池生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃的制定1.市場需求預(yù)測2.實(shí)際產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)工藝路線分析3.生產(chǎn)方式的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析和比較4.制定綜合生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃5.生產(chǎn)能力的粗平衡6.制定主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃7.制定MRP,CRP8.生產(chǎn)能力的精平衡9.零件工序卡編制10.產(chǎn)品裝配工序卡編制1/27Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926Month1234Demandforecast122432291.市場需求預(yù)測（Marketforecast）實(shí)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)根據(jù)給出的數(shù)據(jù)，選擇一種模型來預(yù)測下一年的市場需求量，屬于長期預(yù)。從給出的數(shù)據(jù)分析可以得出，每年的同一

2、月份市場需求量比較接近而同一年份的不同月份之間存在較大的差異，市場需求量與時(shí)間季節(jié)因素有關(guān)。方案一：SeasonalizedTimeSeiriesRegression的模型來進(jìn)行市場預(yù)測。預(yù)測結(jié)果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)YEARSEASONFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND4111.45810.91012.0064223.36422.26824.4604331.75030.28933.2124428.30527.02629.584誤差分析R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)F

3、ORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167預(yù)測的誤差在合理的范圍內(nèi)，預(yù)測結(jié)果如下：方案二：TIMESERIESREGRESSION模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測預(yù)測結(jié)果如下：2/27零件代號(hào)零件名稱零件材料

4、零件工藝過程生產(chǎn)提前期12345MLF-03外殼Q235-A鍛造車削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔1MLF-05外轉(zhuǎn)子電機(jī)套筒Q235-A鍛造焊接車削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔2MLF-11底板Q235-A鍛造車削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔1MLF-12電器定位板鋁合金鑄造車削銑削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔2MLF-07-03電磁鐵外側(cè)夾緊發(fā)蘭鋁合金鑄造車削精車鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔線切割2MLF-07-04電磁鐵鐵芯DW314-50鍛造1MLF-07-05電磁鐵側(cè)夾緊發(fā)蘭鋁合金鑄造車削精銑鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔精車2MLF-07-06電磁鐵夾緊裝置鋁合金鑄造銑削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔1MLF-09-01盤片45鑄造熱處理車削精車鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔2MLF-09-02磁環(huán)電工純鐵模鍛車削銑削1MLF-0

5、9-03壓環(huán)45鑄車削銑削鉆孔、2SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)PERIODFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND1326.09114.97437.2081427.02815.91138.1451527.96516.84839.0821628.90217.78540.019誤差分析：R=0.500R-SQUARE=0.2501MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=2.303MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=31.369MEANERROR(bias)FORA

6、LLPASTPERIODS=0.0STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=6.1354從預(yù)測結(jié)果可以看出這種預(yù)測方法與過去的數(shù)據(jù)相差很大，因此，兩種方法相比較，第一種預(yù)測誤差精度更高誤差更小，所以經(jīng)過比較我采取第一種預(yù)測方法。2.實(shí)際產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)工藝路線分析(ProductProcessAnalysis)3/27造擴(kuò)孔3.生產(chǎn)方式的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析與比較(AlternativePlansComparison)Machinecapacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemblecapacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每

7、月最多生產(chǎn)28臺(tái)。首先,計(jì)算計(jì)劃一年雇用、解雇的工人數(shù)量和在這一年的平均庫存。1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersWorkershiredWorkerslaidrequiredoffLevel1122472018capacitywith224247200inventoryMatchingdemand33224720042924720011212360542242472360332328412042929840089101112InventoryBeginninEndingAverageAverageadding

8、orginventorinventorinventorsubtractioninventoryyyperypermonthyear121022160222222(8)221418(5)14911.5000000000000000016.87504/27AggregateplanTotalannualnumberofworkershiredTotalannualnumberofworkerslaidoffAverageannualinventoryAnnualhiringandlayoffcostAnnualinventorycarryingcostTotalannualsubtractionc

9、ostTotalannualincrementaloperatingcostLevelcapacity01816.87510805332.506412.5Matchingdemand4854037200(4+1)*180012720然后,計(jì)算兩種方案的成本：1234567備注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matchingdemand生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃中第三月和第四月的需求量超過了本廠的最大生產(chǎn)能力，如若要滿足要求需要采用外協(xié)或者加班的方式解決。如果采用外協(xié)第三月份有32-28=4臺(tái)需要外協(xié)，第四月份有29-28=1臺(tái)需要外協(xié)。總的Cost

10、=（4+1）*1800=9000再考慮到工人工資，總的費(fèi)用如下：Costoflevelcapacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Costofmatchingdemand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的費(fèi)用Costofmatchingdemand-Costoflevelcapacity=123120-121612.5=1507.5。Levelcapacity比Matchingdemand的花費(fèi)更少。如果采用加班加班：每臺(tái)成本是600*2.5=1500外協(xié)：每臺(tái)是1800因?yàn)閷τ趍atchingdemand中第三月和第四月共缺5臺(tái)

11、，所以兩者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通過外協(xié)和加班兩者的比較可以看出，兩者的費(fèi)用差不多，但考慮到Levelcapacity的生產(chǎn)方式比Matchingdemand生產(chǎn)方式更加穩(wěn)定；Levelcapacity生產(chǎn)方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matchingdemand的變動(dòng)更小，有利于和工會(huì)之間關(guān)系的維持；在Levelcapacity生產(chǎn)方式中有8臺(tái)的安全庫存可以保證在市場變動(dòng)時(shí)滿足市場需求。綜合以上因素，我選擇Levelcapacity生產(chǎn)方式。5/271234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersrequ

12、iredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory1122472018224247200332247200429247200Month1Month2Month3Month41234123412341234Totaldemand12243229Beginninginventory10222214Required6666666666666666Monthfinalassemblyhours1234Production24242424Finalassemblyhours4200420042004200Load(hours)42004200

13、42004200Capacity(hours)49004900490049004.制定綜合生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃(AggregatePlanning)5.生產(chǎn)能力粗平衡(Rough-CutCapacityPlanning)生產(chǎn)能力粗平衡生產(chǎn)能力滿足要求，不需要加班或者外協(xié)。6制定主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃(MasterProductionSchedule)LevelCapacity：主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃6/27012數(shù)量MLF-001MLF-031MLF-051MLF-071MLF-07-033MLF-07-043MLF-07-053MLF-07-066MLF-091MLF-09-011MLF-09-021MLF-09-031MLF

14、-111MLF-12productionEndinginventory22221497制定MRP,CRP(MaterialRequirementPlanning,CapacityRequirementPlanning)7.1MRP制定各個(gè)零件選擇用LotForLot的生產(chǎn)方式，用軟件POM計(jì)算可得：*MATERIALSREQUIREMENTSPLANNING(MRP)*=PROBLEMNAME:Untitled=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize00001080LFL7/27WeekNumber:1

15、2345678GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available20000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666Pla

16、nnedOrderReleases66666666=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize0311000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts000000008/27Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases106666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:9101112

17、13141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666660*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize0512000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceip

18、ts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts466666669/27PlannedOrderReleases166666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600*RUSHO

19、RDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070010000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases4666666610/27WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements6666

20、6666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070322000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000Net

21、Requirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts0000000011/27Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderRele

22、ases18181818181800*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070421000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases301818181818

23、1818*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts181818181818181812/27PlannedOrderReleases181818181818180*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize

24、070522000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts0000

25、0000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases18181818181800*RUSHORDER*13/27=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070621000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements2436363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Availab

26、le00000000NetRequirements2436363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts2436363636363636PlannedOrderReleases6036363636363636*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements3636363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements3636363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts3636363636363636PlannedO

27、rderReleases363636363636360*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize14/27090010000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666WeekNumber:910

28、111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090122000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements4666666615/27ScheduledReceip

29、ts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600*RUSHORDER

30、*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090221000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements4666666616/27PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases106666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirem

31、ents66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666660*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090322000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available

32、00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666*RUSHORDER*17/27WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLea

33、dOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize1111000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases106666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:91011121314151618/27GrossRequirements66666666Sche

34、duledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666660*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize1212000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequire

35、ments46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts0000000019/27Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600*RUSHORDER*=PLANNEDORDERRELEASESCHEDULE:We

36、ekNumber:12345678ItemCode:*RUSH*0046666666034666666660510666666660700466666660703301818181818181818070412181818181818181807053018181818181818180706243636363636363636090046666666090110666666660902466666666090310666666661146666666612106666666620/27零件名稱外殼外轉(zhuǎn)子電機(jī)套筒電磁鐵外側(cè)夾緊法蘭電磁鐵鐵芯電磁鐵側(cè)夾緊法蘭電磁鐵夾緊裝置盤片磁環(huán)壓環(huán)電器定位板底

37、板工序工時(shí)數(shù)15.921.226.55.326.515.921.215.921.215.915.9WeekNumber:910111213141516ItemCode:*RUSH*00666666660346666666005106666660007006666666607033018181818181800070412181818181818180070530181818181818000706243636363636363600900666666660901106666660009024666666600903106666660011466666660121066666600=7.2CRP

38、制定因?yàn)樯a(chǎn)一個(gè)成品需要80個(gè)工序，故平均一個(gè)工序需要425/80=5.3125小時(shí)。由此可得出各個(gè)零件所需工時(shí)如下表所示：21/27零件代號(hào)生產(chǎn)量第一個(gè)月第二個(gè)月1周2周3周4周5周6周7周8周MLF-0366666666MLF-0566666666MLF-07-031818181818181818MLF-07-041818181818181818MLF-07-051818181818181818MLF-07-063636363636363636MLF-09-0166666666MLF-09-0266666666MLF-09-0366666666MLF-1166666666MLF-12666

39、66666零件代號(hào)生產(chǎn)量第三個(gè)月第四個(gè)月9周10周11周12周13周14周15周16周MLF-0366666600MLF-0566666600MLF-07-0318181818181800MLF-07-04181818181818180MLF-07-0518181818181800MLF-07-0636363636363600MLF-09-0166666600MLF-09-0266666660MLF-09-0366666600MLF-1166666660MLF-126666660022/27由MRP可知各零件每周的需求量，如下表所示：零件代號(hào)工時(shí)第一個(gè)月第二個(gè)月MLF-0391.891.891

40、.891.891.891.891.891.8MLF-05127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2MLF-07-03318477477477477477477477MLF-07-0495.495.495.495.495.495.495.495.4MLF-07-05477477477477477477477477MLF-07-06572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4MLF-09-01127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2MLF-09-0295.495.495.495.495

41、.495.495.495.4MLF-09-03127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2MLF-1195.495.495.495.495.495.495.495.4MLF-1295.495.495.495.495.495.495.495.4生產(chǎn)所需時(shí)間2222.42381.42381.42381.42381.42381.42381.42381.4生產(chǎn)可提供時(shí)間3081.253081.253081.253081.253081.253081.253081.253081.25剩余工時(shí)858.85699.85699.85699.85699.85699.85699.

42、85699.85零件代號(hào)工時(shí)第三個(gè)月第四個(gè)月MLF-0391.891.891.891.891.891.891.80MLF-05127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.200MLF-07-0347747747747747747700MLF-07-0495.495.495.495.495.495.495.40MLF-07-0547747747747747747700MLF-07-06572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.40MLF-09-01127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.200MLF-09-0295.495.495.495.495.495.495.40MLF-09-03127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.200MLF-1195.495.495.495.495.495.495.40MLF-1295.495.495.495.495.495.400根據(jù)以上表格，計(jì)算每個(gè)月每周所需要的工時(shí)23/27零件代號(hào)第一個(gè)月第二個(gè)月MLF-0046666666MLF-07-0046666666MLF-09-0046666666所需裝配能力540810810810810810810810總裝配能力122512251225122