貨幣金融學第11版-米什金-思考題目答案第25章

1、Chapter 25ANSWERS TO QUESTIONSDespite very low interest rates as a result of monetary easing, expenditures on consumer durables were weak at this period of time, indicating that the interest rate channel, as it affected consumer durables, was not very healthy. As a result, the government instituted

2、such programs in order to more directly stimulate spending in these areas.盡管由于貨幣寬松政策利率非常低，但在這段時間內(nèi)，消費者耐用品支出疲軟，這表明利率渠道，因為它影響了耐用消費品， 并不是很健康。因此，政府制定了這樣的計劃，以便更直接地刺激這些領域的支出。Uncertain. Although consumption is the largest part of overall U.S. GDP, and there is no doubt that these channels can be important t

3、o monetary policy effectiveness, some may disagree with this statement. For instance, even though investment is closer to 15% of U.S. GDP, investment fluctuations are much more pronounced over the business cycle than changes in consumption, leading to the possibility that interest rate effects on in

4、vestment could be potentially more important. In addition, proponents of the credit view believe that credit market effects are much more important than interest rate effects, and since the credit view primarily impacts investment, credit effects on investment could be potentially more powerful than

5、 consumption effects from monetary policy changes.不確定的。盡管消費是整個美國GDP的最大組成部分，但毫無疑問，這些渠道對貨幣政策的有效性很重要，有些人可能不同意這種說法。例如，即使投資接近美國GDP的15% ,投資波動在商業(yè)周期中比消費變化更明顯，這就導致了利率對投資的影響可能更重要。止匕外，信用觀點的支持者認為，信貸市場效應比利率效應更重要，而且由于信貸觀點主要影響投資，信貸對投 資的影響可能比貨幣政策變化帶來的消費效應更強大。If the central bank commits to a higher inflation policy

6、while maintaining low nominal interest rates, this will raise inflation expectations and therefore lower real interest rates, even if the nominal interest rate is zero. In addition, the central bank can commit to keeping short-term interest rates low for a long time, which can have the effect of low

7、ering longer-term nominal interest rates, which also reduces real longer-term interest rates.如果央行在維持低名義利率的同時承諾提高通脹政策，這將提高通脹預期，從而降低實際利率，即使名義利率為零。止匕外，央 行還可以承諾長期保持低短期利率，從而降低長期名義利率，這也會降低實際較長期利率。Part of the problem with deflation is that lower (negative) inflation raises the real interest rate, which rai

8、ses the cost of capital and lowers investment and consumption through the interest-rate channel, creating further deflationary pressure. In addition, short-term nominal interest rates reach the zero lower bound, meaning traditional monetary policy is rendered ineffective. Thus, by beinga responsibly

9、irresponsible, “ central banks can commit to creating strong but temporary inflationary policies that are designed to raise inflation expectations (and hence lower real interest rates) enough to create stimulus through the interest-rate channel and expand aggregate demand safely and surely to get ou

10、t of a deflationary spiral.通縮問題的部分原因在于，較低的(負面)通脹率提高了實際利率，從而提高了資本成本，通過利率渠道降低了投資和消費，從而產(chǎn)生了進一步的通縮壓力。止匕外，短期名義利率達到零下限，意味著傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策失效。因此，通過 負責任的不負責任”央行可以致力于創(chuàng)造強大但暫時性的通貨膨脹政策，旨在提高通貨膨脹的預期 (因此低實際利率)足以創(chuàng)造刺激通過利率渠道和擴大總需求肯定安全的通縮螺旋。An advantage to monetary policy having so many channels through which it can impact the e

11、conomy is that if policy is rendered ineffective through any one particular channel, it doesn mean the policy is tentirely ineffective, as there are other channels and other sectors of the economy in which the same policy can still impact the economy. On the other hand, having so many different chan

12、nels through which monetary policy operates can increase uncertainty over the effects of any given policy.Chapter 251 / 5貨幣政策擁有很多渠道影響經(jīng)濟，如果政策呈現(xiàn)無效的通過任何一個特定的渠道，這并不意味著政策完全是無效的，因為有其他渠道和其他經(jīng)濟部門的相同的政策仍然可以影響經(jīng)濟。另一方面，有這么多不同的渠道，貨幣政策的運作可以增加任何既定政策的不確定性。True. When countries fix their exchange rate, they must use m

13、onetary policy to affect the interest rate in order to maintain the exchange rate. In other words, the central bank must change the real interest rate to maintain the exchange rate, which means net exports and aggregate demand will be unaffected as long as the exchange rate peg is maintained.正確。當國家調(diào)

14、整匯率時，他們必須使用貨幣政策來影響利率，以維持匯率。換句話說，央行必須改變實際利率來維持匯率， 這意味著只要保持匯率掛鉤，凈出口和總需求就不會受到影響。There are four main mechanisms through which the decline in stock prices could have reduced aggregate demand and contributed to the severity of the recession. First, the decline in stock prices lowered Tobin q and might hav

15、e reduced investment spending. Second, the decline in financial wealth, as a result of the stock price decline, could have caused a drop in consumption because consumers lifetime resources were reduced. Third, the decline in stock prices lowered the value of financial assets, which increased the pub

16、lic s probability of financial distress, and so they cut back on their purchases of consumer durables and housing. Fourth, the decline in stock prices lowers the net worth of business firms, which increases adverse selection and moral hazard problems in lending and might have resulted in a reduction

17、 in lending and less investment spending.有四種主要機制，即股票價格下跌可以減少總需求，并導致經(jīng)濟衰退的嚴重程度。首先，股票價格的下跌降低了托賓的q值，并可能減少了投資支出。其次，由于股價下跌，金融財富的下降可能導致消費下降，因為消費者的終身資源減少了。第三，股 票價格的下跌降低了金融資產(chǎn)的價值，這增加了公眾財務困境的可能性，因此他們減少了購買耐用消費品和住房的費用。第四，股票價格的下跌降低了商業(yè)公司的資產(chǎn)凈值，這增加了貸款的逆向選擇和道德風險問題，并可能導致貸款減少和投資支出減少。False. Monetary policy can affect st

18、ock prices, which affect Tobin q and adverse selection and moral hazard problems in lending, thereby affecting investment spending. In addition, monetary policy can affect loan availability, which may influence investment spending.錯誤。貨幣政策會影響到股票價格，影響到托賓的q和逆向選擇和貸款的道德風險問題，從而影響投資支出。此外，貨幣政策會影響貸款的可用性，這可能會

19、影響投資支出。Stock prices will rise. The monetary easing lowers interest rates, so the yields on alternative assets to stocks, such as bonds, fall. This makes stocks more attractive, increases their demand, and hence raises their price.股票價格會上升。貨幣寬松政策降低了利率，因此替代資產(chǎn)的收益率，如債券，下跌。這使得股票更具吸引力，增加了他們的 需求，從而提高了他們的價格。

20、The lower real interest rates would stimulate investment spending because the cost of financing investments would fall. However, the stock market decline would cause the market value of firms to fall and so Tobin q tosfall. The decline in Tobinq would thes lead to a decline in investment spending.Be

21、cause the stock market and the Tobin q decline was so large, investment spending actually fell dramatically during this period.較低的實際利率會刺激投資支出，因為投資的成本會下降。然而，股市下跌會導致公司市值下降，因此托賓的q下跌。Tobin sq的下降將導致投資支出的下降。由于股票市場和Tobin s q的下降幅度如此之大，在這段時間里，投資支出實際上大幅下降。There are three mechanisms involving consumer expendit

22、ure. First, an expansionary monetary policy lowers interest rates and reduces the cost of financing purchases of consumer durables, and consumer durable expenditure rises. Second, an expansionary monetary policy causes stock prices and wealth to rise, leading to greater lifetime resources for consum

23、ers and causing them to increase their consumption. Third, an expansionary monetary policy that causes stock prices and the value of financial assets to rise also lowers people s probability of financial distress, so they spend more on consumer durables. 消費者支出有三種機制。首先，擴張性貨幣政策降低了利率，降低了購買耐用消費品的融資成本，而消

24、費者的持久支出也隨之Chapter 25增加。第二，擴張性的貨幣政策導致股票價格和財富的上升，從而為消費者帶來更大的終身資源，并導致他們增加消費。第三，一種擴張性的貨幣政策，導致股票價格和金融資產(chǎn)的增值也降低了人們的金融危機的可能性，因此他們在耐用消費品上花費更多。This situation is consistent with Tobin q and the wealth effects of expansionary monetary policy. With lower interest rates, stock prices rise. Tobin q predicts that i

25、nvestment will increase, stimulating aggregate demand. In addition, with the higher stock prices, this will raise wealth, and lead to higher consumption and increased aggregate demand.這種情況與托賓的q和擴張性貨幣政策的財富效應相一致。隨著利率的降低，股票價格也會上漲。托賓的q預測，投資將增加，刺激總需求。此外，隨著股價上漲，這將增加財富，并導致更高的消費和增加總需求。The wealth channel sug

26、gests that this type of monetary policy would raise stock prices and increase house prices, which would raise homeowners equity, and hence wealth throughshodsing anmarkets. However, even though real interest rates were low, stock values and housing wealth declined sharply, which ultimately decreased

27、 consumption and aggregate demand, suggesting monetary policy effects through the wealth channel were ineffective during the global financial crisis.財富渠道暗示，這種貨幣政策將提高股票價格，提高房屋價格，從而提高房主的權(quán)益，從而通過住房和股票市場獲得財富。然 而，盡管實際利率很低，但股票價值和住房財富急劇下降，最終降低了消費和總需求，表明通過財富渠道的貨幣政策效應在全 球金融危機期間是無效的。With an increase in bank re

28、serves, the bank lending channel predicts that deposits and loans will increase, leading to higher investment. However, the increased amount of reserves did not translate to higher lending due to perceived credit risks by lending banks. As a result, banks chose to simply hold the increased amount of

29、 reserves as excess reserves rather than loan them out, indicating that the bank lending channel of monetary policy was not operating effectively during the global financial crisis.隨著銀行準備金的增加，銀行貸款渠道預計存款和貸款將會增加，從而導致投資增加。 然而，由于貸款銀行感知到的信貸風險，銀行準備金的增加并沒有轉(zhuǎn)化為更高的貸款。因此，銀行選擇將增加的準備金作為超額準備金，而不是貸出，這表明在全球金 融危機期間，

30、貨幣政策的銀行貸款渠道沒有有效運作。Since small businesses are more dependent on bank loans than large firms, monetary policy changes that impact the availability of credit will disproportionately affect small businesses more than large firms.由于小企業(yè)比大公司更依賴銀行貸款，因此貨幣政策的變化會對小企業(yè)的影響大于大公司。There are a couple reasons why this

31、 might be true. First, bank regulations in the United States have eased, making it easier for banks to raise funds through various sources which were cumbersome under Regulation Q. The implication is that the Fed has less control over the behavior of banks in response to policy changes because of th

32、e change in regulations. In addition, there has been a worldwide decline in the traditional bank lending business, meaning the sheer size of bank lending is lower, making this channel less potent.This would lower the net worth of firms, and lead to increased adverse selection and moral hazard, ultim

33、ately resulting in lower investment. This is precisely what happened as a result of the global financial crisis.這將降低公司的凈值，并導致逆向選擇和道德風險增加，最終導致投資減少。這正是全球金融危機的結(jié)果。It would make it more difficult for the central bank to stimulate the economy. The credit view indicates that adverse selection and moral haz

34、ard play an important part in affecting investment behavior and ultimately the economy. However, during downturns, asymmetric information problems increase, meaning that monetary policy must be more powerful to offset the contractionary effects of increases in adverse selection and moral hazard.這將使中

35、央銀行刺激經(jīng)濟變得更加困難。信用觀點認為逆向選擇和道德風險在影響投資行為和最終經(jīng)濟方面起著重要的作用。然而，在經(jīng)濟低迷時期，信息不對稱問題增多，這意味著貨幣政策必須更有力地抵消逆向選擇和道德風險增加所帶來的收縮效 應。Chapter 25During the Great Depression, the fall in the price level led to a significant decrease in consumer wealth and a sharp decline in consumption. The decline in prices led to an increas

36、e in real debt of more than 20%, and overall, the effect on consumers was to reduce expenditure more than 50%, and housing expenditures fell 80%.在大蕭條時期，價格水平的下降導致了消費者財富的顯著下降，消費的急劇下降。價格下降導致實際債務增加超過20%，總體來說，對消費者的影響是減少超過50%的支出，住房支出下降了 80% oThe two channels are similar in that increases in real interest

37、rates lead to lower asset prices, which lead to lower spending on consumption and housing. The difference is in how changes in asset prices lead to lower spending. Under the wealth effect, people are simply less willing to spend when wealth is lower (due to lower overall lifetime resources), leading

38、 to a reduction in spending. The household liquidity effect instead indicates a substitution effect between more liquid assets (such as cash or stocks) and less liquid assets (such as consumer durables or housing). Thus, with lower asset values, households use their resources to purchase safer, more

39、 liquid assets rather than consumption or housing, leading to lower aggregate demand.這兩種渠道的相似之處在于，實際利率的上升會導致資產(chǎn)價格下跌，從而導致消費和住房支出減少。不同之處在于，資產(chǎn)價格 的變化會導致更低的支出。在財富效應的影響下， 人們在財富較低的時候更不愿意花錢(因為總體生命周期可利用的資源較低)，導致支出減少。而家庭流動性效應則表明，流動性更強的資產(chǎn)(如現(xiàn)金或股票)與流動性較差的資產(chǎn)(如耐用消費品或住房)之間存在替代效應。因此，隨著資產(chǎn)價值的降低，家庭使用他們的資源購買更安全、更流動的資產(chǎn)，而不

40、是消費或住房，從而導致 總需求下降。(a) Lower mortgage rates should lead to higher housing prices, and raise the value of housing wealth. This should lead to a lower probability of financial distress, and raise consumer durable and housing expenditure. (b) Even though interest rates were extremely low, if nobody coul

41、d qualify for the low mortgage rates it would not have an appreciable effect on raising the value of household s financialassets (i.e housing wealth). Thus, the likelihood of financial distress would remain elevated, and not improve consumer durable and housing expenditure.(a)較低的抵押貸款利率將導致房價上漲，并提高住房財

42、富的價值。這將導致財務困境的可能性降低，并提高消費者的耐用品 和住房支出。(b)即使利率極低，如果沒有人能夠獲得較低的抵押貸款利率，它也不會對提高家庭金融資產(chǎn)的價值產(chǎn)生明顯的 影響(例如，房產(chǎn)財富)。因此，財務困境的可能性仍然會上升，而不是改善消費者的耐用性和住房支出。There are three main reasons why the credit view may prevail. First, there is evidence to indicate that financial frictions do significantly affect employment and sp

43、ending decisions. Second, there is evidence that small firms are hurt more by tight monetary policy than large firms, which are unlikely to be credit-constrained. Finally, asymmetric information, which is at the heart of the credit view, has wide applicability in explaining many other behavioral and

44、 economic-related concepts, so it is likely to play an important role in financial markets and monetary policy.有三個主要原因可以解釋為什么信貸觀點會占上風。首先，有證據(jù)表明，金融脆弱性對就業(yè)和支出決策產(chǎn)生了重大影響。第二，有證據(jù)表明，小公司比大公司更容易受到緊縮的貨幣政策的傷害，而大公司不太可能受到信貸限制。最后，信用觀點的核心是 信息不對稱，它在解釋許多其他行為和經(jīng)濟相關概念方面具有廣泛的適用性，因此它很可能在金融市場和貨幣政策中發(fā)揮重要作用。False. A monetary e

45、asing is associated with falling real interest rates. Even if nominal interest rates are falling, it could be the case that expected inflation decreases more, leading to an increase in real interest rates and a tighter monetary policy stance.錯誤，貨幣寬松與實際利率下降有關。即使名義利率下降，也有可能是通脹預期下降更多，導致實際利率上升，貨幣政策立場 收緊

46、。The experience of Japan directly supports the four lessons of monetary policy discussed in the chapter. First, short-term interest rates in Japan were near zero; however, due to deflation, real interest rates remained elevated, suggesting a contractionary monetary policy stance. Secondly, if JapaneseChapter 254 / 5pol