量化歷史班版pekin univ1wages in the middle east

1、 Wages and GDP Per Capita in the Middle East before the Industrial Revolution, 700-1800 evket Pamuk Bogazii University, Istanbul presented at The 3rd Summer School on Quantitative History Pekin University, July 2015 Why study Wages and GDP per capita in pre-modern Middle East ? - 1 Learn more about

2、the performance of the Islamic economy in the medieval and early modern periods Contribute to the recent debate about pre-modern Islamic economies How did average incomes in the medieval (700-1500) and early modern (1500-1800) Middle East compare with other societies in pre-modern world ? When did t

3、he gap between Europe and the Middle East begin to emerge ? Why study Wages and GDP per capita in pre-modern Middle East ? - 2Contribute to the recent literature on pre-modern economies : Morris (2004), Milanovich (2006), Allen (2009), Lo Cascio-Malanima (2009), Scheidel (2010)Little information on

4、early Medieval Europe but plenty of evidence on the Islamic societies of the Near East; Near East may shed light on other medieval societies.Will study Egypt and Mesopotamia Will also compare the medieval and early modern Middle East with the Roman Empire (150 CE), the Byzantine Empire (1000-1450) a

5、nd southern and northwestern Europe (1300-1800). Measuring real wages Collect data on wages and the prices of consumer goods The question is: how much could a worker consume with the income her or she received? Various approaches What if he spent all the money on bread, meat, etc? Grain equivalents

6、in particular Our approach: did a fully employed worker earn enough to maintain a family at subsistence?Calculation of Real Wages Purchasing Power of Daily Wages of Unskilled Urban Workers in kilograms of Wheat or kilograms of Breadii) Daily Wages of Unskilled Urban Workers expressed in terms of a S

7、ubsistence Basket or Bare Bones Basket (BBB) as opposed to the “Respectability Basket”The Respectable Lifestyle (Northern): Basket of Goods Strasbourg quantity price nutrients/day per person g. silver spending grams of per year per unit share calories proteinbread 182 kg .693 36.0% 1223 50beans/peas

8、 52 l .477 5.5 370 28meat 26 kg 2.213 12.8 178 14butter 5.2 kg 3.470 4.0 104 0cheese 5.2 kg 2.843 3.3 54 3eggs 52 each .010 1.1 11 1beer 182 l .470 20.0 212 2soap 2.6 kg 2.880 1.7linen 5 m 4.369 4.8candles 2.6 kg 4.980 2.9lamp oil 2.6 l 7.545 4.3fuel 5.0 M BTU 4.164 4.6 total 412.1566 100.0% 1941 80

9、 Calculating the Cost of the Mediterranean Bare Bones Basket (BBB) (based on Allen) Contents of the Basket per person for one year - 172 kilograms of Wheat - 20 kilograms of Beans or Peas - 5 Kilograms of Meat - 5 liters of Olive Oil - 3 meters of Linen - Soap, Candle, Lamp Oil and Fuel plus 5 perce

10、nt for Rent also adds up to 1940 calories per day per person and but costs ONLY 40 to 50 percent of the Respectability Basket The Data and their Sources -1Papyri Documents written in Greek, Coptic and Arabic discovered in Egypt and contain data relevant only to Egypt. Ten thousands of papyri documen

11、ts, most of them accounts, are available for study in various degrees of conservation, in libraries. Data from papyri used in the study covers the 7th-13th century, with the bulk of the documents dating from the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th centuries. The data used is derived mostly from Ashtor, Prix et s

12、alaires , augmented by Arabic papyri documents published by A. Grohmann in a series of publications between 1920-1956, in particular, Adolf Grohmann, Arabic papyri in the Egyptian library. (Cairo, Egyptian Library Press, 1934) vol. VI, as well as from the Arabic Papyrological Database in the univers

13、ity of Zurich, . The Data and Their Sources - 2GenizaArabic documents written in Hebrew characters by members of the Jewish community and preserved in the synagogue of Cairo in Egypt. The documents used here, mostly accounts, relate to a variety of economic transactions by individuals such as mercha

14、nts accounts, and public institutions such as expenses on Jewish institutions. They cover mostly the 11th-13th centuries and relate to activities undertaken by Jews in dealings with Jews and on-/Jews but judged as having a general data of value for the general population and economic conditions in E

15、gypt.As in the case of the papyri, publication of the Geniza documents by different authors were used, but especially data from S. D. Goitein, A Mediterranean Society,. The Jewish communities of the Arab world as portrayed in the documents of the Cairo Geniza. vol. 1, Economic foundations (Universit

16、y of California Press, 1967) The Data and Their Sources - 3Eliyahu Ashtor, Histoire des prix et des salaires dans lOrient Mdival (Paris, S.E.V.P.E.N., 1969) sources for Iraq and Egypt.Data for Egypt was collected from papyri and Geniza documents as well as from literary Arabic sources. In the case o

17、f Egypt the big break in terms of data comes in the 14th and 15th centuries with the Italian, French and Catalan archives documenting trade and exchange with Egypt. The documents are particularly rich in commodity prices. For his study of prices and wages in Iraq Ashtor collected data from two kinds

18、 of Arabic literary sources, chronicles, including financial administrative treatises Kitab al-Haraj, and geographical descriptions of the Abbasid Empire. The chroniclers include prominent names such as al-Tabari, Hilal al-Sabi, Jahshiyari, who covered in great detail the economic life during the fi

19、rst three centuries of Islamic rule, as well as chronicles written by local Christians. Unlike the case of Egypt, there are no archival documents available for Iraq, but the chronicles of medieval Iraq are far richer and more numerous then those of Egypt, so Ashtor could achieve a balanced coverage

20、of the two regions for the early medieval period. Observations on the Data Wage observations of unskilled urban workers are not very large in numbers; few dozens for the medieval period; mostly in the form of monthly wages, but also daily wages. Nominal wages appear to be stable, they do not fluctua

21、te or change very often. Volume of evidence on prices is much larger. However, there are large fluctuations especially in wheat prices which is common to all medieval economies; available price data are biased towards the extraordinary years, as extraordinary prices were recorded more often in the s

22、ources. We tried to identify and use “normal” wheat prices. 02468101214700800900100011001200130014001500Figure 2: Daily Wages of Unskilled Urban Workers in Egypt and Iraq 700-1500; in kg of wheatCairoBaghdadSubsistence for a family of 4 Calculating the Purchasing Power of the daily unskilled urban w

23、age in terms of the Mediterranean Bare Bones Basket (BBB) 250 days of the unskilled wage divided by Annual Cost of the BBB multiplied by 3 (two adults plus two children) A value of 1,0 for this ratio (roughly) indicates subsistence minimum0.51.01.52.02.53.0700800900100011001200130014001500Figure 3:

24、Purchasing Power of Unskilled Urban Wages in Egypt and Iraq in Bare Bones Baskets, 700-1500 CairoBaghdad Sources of Data for the Ottoman period (1500-1914) Prices Account Books of the palace kitchen Accounts Books of the Soup kitchens Lists of fixed prices decided by city governments Wages: Account

25、Books of Repairs and Construction projects0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.01450150015501600165017001750180018501900Graph 1Real Daily Wages of Construction Workers in Istanbul (unskilled (1489-90) = 1,0) SkilledUnskilled30-Year Moving Averages, Skilled30-Year Moving Averages, Unskilled2468101214-400-200020

26、040060080010001200140016001800Figure 4: Daily Wages of Unskilled Urban Workers in the Middle East, before 1800 ; in kg of wheatCairoBaghdadIstanbulSubsistence for Family of 40.51.01.52.02.53.0700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800Figure 5: Purchasing Power of Unskilled Urban Wages in the Midd

27、le East; in Bare Bones Baskets, 700-1800 cairobaghdadistanbul Basic Results - 1 There were medium and long term trends in real wages due to changes in both wages and prices. However, there were limits to movements both on the downside and the upside. Real wages fluctuated between 1,3 and 2,2 times t

28、he subsistence. Short term fluctuations in real wages were primarily due to the fluctuations in wheat prices; real wages occasionally declined below subsistence due to sharp rises in wheat (and other food) prices For medium and long term movements in real wages, security, institutions, trade, agricu

29、lture, manufacturing all matter. One period of higher wages and incomes was the “Golden Age of Islam” from the 8th to the 11th century. Basic Results 2 Plagues and Real Wages in the Medieval Era Another important determinant of large movements in real wages were plagues, and more generally, demograp

30、hic shocks. Large numbers of people died but incomes of those who survived were often higher. In the literature on wages and GDP per capita, Justinian plague (6th-8th centuries) has been mostly ignored. Egypt and Mesopotamia had very different experiences during the Justinian Plague Insights into sl

31、avery during the Middle Ages ? In contrast, the impact of the Black Death (14th-15th centuries) in Egypt and elsewhere in the region is better known (Dols) Plagues and Wages in Egypt, 541-1600 Two long lasting episodes: Justinian Plague (541- ) and Black Death (1347- ) Sharp Decline in Population Ri

32、se in Wages Slow recovery of population . due to - Recurrence of the plague - Decline in fertility Islamic Golden AgeMonetary stability, new crops in agriculture, specialised manufacturing, well developed division of labor and urban networks, long distance trade, advanced commercial and financial in

33、stitutions ; accumulation of wealth ; also achievements in sciencesMesopotamia under the Abbasids (8th-9th centuries) ; Fatimid Egypt (10th and 11th centuries); also Muslim Spain- Large numbers of technical handbooks point to highly developed division of labor, the presence of skilled labor. And lar

34、ge numbers of occupations. What do wages and GDP per capita estimates show ?- urban wages and GDP per capita at their peak were probably higher than the averages for the Roman Empire and Byzantine Empire at their peak - wages and GDP per capita at their peak were roughly twice as high as the subsist

35、ence minimum ; - but not as high as southern and northwestern Europe in the late medieval era ; limits on upwards movements - one key constraint or difference was in the levels of agricultural productivity including animal husbandry02468101214161450- 1500- 1550- 1600- 1650- 1700- 1750- 1800- 1850- 1

36、900-Graph 2 Real wages of unskilled construction workers in European cities, 1450-1913; (wages in grams of silver / CPI)IstanbulAntwerp+AmsterdamLondonParisValenciaLeipzigViennaWarsaw02468101300135014001450150015501600165017001750Graph 2: Real Wages of Unskilled Workers in Europe and the Middle East

37、 , 1300-1800AntwerpAmsterdamLondonParisStrasbourgFlorenceValenciaViennaKrakowIstanbulCairo0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0315450600720930 1020 1060 1180 1220 1330 1430 1480 1580 1620 1720 1780Purchasing Power of Unskilled Wages in the Middle East and Europe in Bare Bones Baskets EgyptS. IraqByzantineIstanbulN.

38、 ItalyHollandEnglandFor More Comparisons across Time and SpaceConverting Real Wages to Estimates of GDP per capita -1Alternative Methods :Estimating GDP from the product side . is not possible.- From the incomes side: i) Wheat wage into GDP per capita (Scheidel and Friesen, 2009) :Subsistence minimu

39、m in Wheat is 390 Kg per personBetter yet: ii) Converting Real Wage expressed in BBB (W/BBB) into estimates of GDP per capita expressed in 1990 US Dollars (Maddison) Converting the Purchasing Power of the Daily Wage to Estimates of GDP per capita- 4 iii) A more recent approach : GDP per cap (in Madd

40、isons 1990 US Dollars) = 250 dollars * W/BBB * k where k is a coefficient of conversion. k was lower than 2 in medieval Europe but exceeded 2 in NW Europe before the Industrial Revolution (van Zanden, 2010) . in medieval and early modern Middle East, k was between 1,5 to 2,0. k depended on : - Unski

41、lled urban wage vs. average income Urban-Rural differences in incomes Complexity of the economy; numbers of skilled people etc. - Plagues - Labor shortage conditions (when k may go below 1,5) Why k is likely to vary ? k appears to fluctuate close to 2 for Netherlands and England (1400-1800) but stil

42、l within a wide range Evidence on Income Inequality in pre-industrial economies points to variation (Lindert et al, 2008) Differences in Structure (k varies with the rate of urbanization) Demographic Cycles Leading City Effect200400600800100012007209301020106011801220133014301480Figure 3: GDP per ca

43、pita in the Near East in 1990 US Dollars EgyptIraqByzantineSubsistence Conclusions : Insights into pre-modern Wages and Incomes: levels as well as fluctuations Plagues and more generally demographic shocks were the most important single determinant wage levels and GDP per capita in the medieval era

44、Placing medieval Middle East into a long term context from the Roman Empire to late medieval and early modern Europe as well as the Byzantine and Ottoman Empires Recent literature on late medieval and early modern wages and per capita incomes in Europe: increases were earlier, in the medieval era ;

45、in contrast wages and incomes were more stable in the early modern era: similar patterns in the Middle East and Europe040080012001600200024002800315450 600720930 1020 1060 1180 1220 1330 1430 1480 1580 1620 1720 1780Figure 4: GDP per capita in the Middle East, Europe (and Asia), 300 to 1800; in 1990

46、 US Dollars EgyptIraqByzantineOttomanHollandEnglandItalySpainIndia Conclusions based on the Experience of the Middle East 1-The view that pre-industrial societies were always or often near the edge of subsistence is mistaken. - Purchasing power of unskilled wages in the region remained mostly betwee

47、n 1,2 and 2,0 times subsistence minimum and - Average incomes remained mostly within an interval that ranged from 2 to 3 times the subsistence minimum . during the period 700 to 1800. Conclusions based on the Experience of the Middle East 2- Two developments played important roles in pulling up the

48、real wages in the medieval Middle East. One of these was the powerful demographic shocks whose effects took literally centuries to unfold caused large and long term changes in the purchasing power of wages and per capita incomes in the medieval Middle East. Conclusions based on the Experience of the

49、 Middle East 3- Long term increases in average incomes and standards of living were not only due to demographic changes and cycles of extensive growth. When favorable institutions combined with other factors, it could lead to a period of intensive growth. “The Golden Age of Islam” More on the TWO ma

50、jor / long-term plagues Black Death (1347- ) Justinian Plague (541- ) Labor shortages and high per capita incomes for centuries; implications for both Europe and the Middle East Implications for the 16th Century Findlay and Lundahl (2006)05101520253035800900100011001200130014001500160017001800Urbani

51、sation Rates in percent in centers 10 thousand plusSource: Bosker, Buringh and van ZandenEgyptIraqTurkeySyria0.00.51.01.52.02.53.07209301020106011801220133014301480Figure 2: Purchasing Power of Unskilled Wages in the Middle East; in Bare Bones Baskets, 700-1500 EgyptIraq02468101214700800900100011001

52、200130014001500Figure 2: Daily Wages of Unskilled Urban Workers in Egypt and Iraq 700-1500; in kg of wheatCairoBaghdadSubsistence for a family of 40.51.01.52.02.53.0700800900100011001200130014001500Figure 3: Purchasing Power of Unskilled Urban Wages in Egypt and Iraq in Bare Bones Baskets, 700-1500

53、CairoBaghdad2468101214-400-200020040060080010001200140016001800Figure 4: Daily Wages of Unskilled Urban Workers in the Middle East, before 1800 ; in kg of wheatCairoBaghdadIstanbulSubsistence for Family of 40.51.01.52.02.53.0700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800Figure 5: Purchasing Power of

54、Unskilled Urban Wages in the Middle East; in Bare Bones Baskets, 700-1800 cairobaghdadistanbul0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.01450150015501600165017001750180018501900Graph 1Real Daily Wages of Construction Workers in Istanbul (unskilled (1489-90) = 1,0) SkilledUnskilled30-Year Moving Averages, Skilled30-

55、Year Moving Averages, Unskilled02468101214161450- 1500- 1550- 1600- 1650- 1700- 1750- 1800- 1850- 1900-Graph 2 Real wages of unskilled construction workers in European cities, 1450-1913; (wages in grams of silver / CPI)IstanbulAntwerp+AmsterdamLondonParisValenciaLeipzigViennaWarsawOn the Quality and

56、 Detail of the Evidence and the EstimatesThe amount and quality of evidence on prices and wages in the medieval Near East is much greater than the evidence for the Roman Empire and southern and northwestern Europe until the thirteenth century. For this reason, our estimates of real daily wages and G

57、DP per capita are more reliable ; they have lower margins of error than those for the Roman Empire and southern and northwestern Europe before the thirteenth century. For other parts of Europe similar data does not become available until later. procedure Annual income = 250 * daily wage Modify as ap

58、propriate Calculate cost of subsistence basket for an adult male. Include house rent 5% To get cost of familys subsistence, multiply the cost the mans basket by 3 or 4. Welfare ratio = annual income/annual family subsistence cost02468101214167209301020106011801220133014301480Daily Wages of Unskilled

59、 Workers in Egypt, 700-1500 in kg of BREADin kg of WHEAT02468101214150230315450600720930 1020 1060 1180 1220 1330 1430 1480 1580 1620 1720 1780Daily Wages of Unskilled Urban Workers in Egypt, 100-1800 in kg of BREADin kg of WHEAT0246810127208509301020106011801220133014301480Figure 1: Wages of Unskil

60、led Workers in Egypt and Iraq, 700-1500; in kilograms of wheatEgyptIraqSubsistence0.00.51.01.52.02.53.07209301020106011801220133014301480Figure 3 : Purchasing Power of Unskilled Wages in the Middle East; in Bare Bones Baskets EgyptIraqByzantineThe impact of the Justinian Plague Russell estimated tha