案例分析發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家的貿(mào)易條ppt課件

1、lIntroductionlA Standard Model of a Trading EconomylInternational Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD CurvelTariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RDlSummarylAppendix: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer CurveslPrevious trade theories have emphasized specific sour

2、ces of comparative advantage which give rise to international trade:lDifferences in labor productivity (Ricardian model)lDifferences in resources (specific factors model and Heckscher-Ohlin model)lThe standard trade model is a general model of trade that admits these models as special cases.lThe sta

3、ndard trade model is built on four key relationships:lProduction possibility frontier and the relative supply curvelRelative prices and relative demandlWorld relative supply and world relative demandlTerms of trade and national welfarelProduction Possibilities and Relative SupplylAssumptions of the

4、model:lEach country produces two goods, food (F) and cloth (C)lEach countrys production possibility frontier is a smooth curve (TT)lThe point on its production possibility frontier at which an economy actually produces depends on the price of cloth relative to food, PC/PF.lIsovalue lines(P94)lLines

5、along which the market value of output is constantFigure 5-1: Relative Prices Determine the Economys Output(P95)QIsovalue linesTT Cloth production, QCFood production, QFFigure 5-2: How an Increase in the Relative Price of Cloth Affects Relative Supply(P96)Q1VV1(PC/PF)1Q2VV2(PC/PF)2TT Cloth productio

6、n, QCFood production, QFlRelative Prices and DemandlThe value of an economys consumption equals the value of its production:lPCQC + PFQF = PCDC + PFDF = VlThe economys choice of a point on the isovalue line depends on the tastes of its consumers, which can be represented graphically by a series of i

7、ndifference curves.Indifference curves(P96)Each traces a set of combinations of two goods consumption that leave the individual equally well offThey have three properties:Downward slopingThe farther up and to the right each lies, the higher the level of welfare to which it correspondsEach gets flatt

8、er as we move to the rightTTFigure 5-3: Production, Consumption, and Trade in the Standard Model(P97) Cloth production, QCFood production, QFQDIndifference curvesFood importsCloth exportsIf the relative price of cloth, PC/PF , increases, the economys consumption choice shifts from D1 to D2.The move

9、from D1 to D2 reflects two effects:Income effectSubstitution effectIt is possible that the income effect will be so strong that when PC/PF rises, consumption of both goods actually rises, while the ratio of cloth consumption to food consumption falls.TTFigure 5-4: Effects of a Rise in the Relative P

10、rice of Cloth(P98)Q1VV1(PC/PF)1Q2VV2(PC/PF)2D2D1 Cloth production, QCFood production, QFlThe Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of TradelTerms of trade lThe price of the good a country s exports divided by the price of its imports.(P94)lA rise in the terms of trade increases a countrys welfare,

11、while a decline in the terms of trade reduces its welfare.(P98)興隆國家和開展中國家19721993年的貿(mào)易條件單位出口價(jià)值/單位進(jìn)口價(jià)值，1972年為100年度7273747576777879808182開展中國家石油出口國100 113 258 246 259 272 248 302 412 451 450其他國家100 104 999094102 9694918584興隆國家100 98878988868986807980年度8384858687888990919293開展中國家石油出口國4104123912062321922

12、14243214201198其他國家8487858788929192929291興隆國家8281829077919191929494lDetermining Relative PriceslSuppose that the world economy consists of two countries:lHome (which exports cloth)lIts terms of trade are measured by PC/PFlIts quantities of cloth and food produced are QC and QFlForeign (which exports

13、food) lIts terms of trade are measured by PF/PClIts quantities of cloth and food produced are Q*C and Q*FTo determine PC/PF , one must find the intersection of world relative supply of cloth and world relative demand.The world relative supply curve (RS) is upward sloping because an increase in PC/PF

14、 leads both countries to produce more cloth and less food.The world relative demand curve (RD) is downward sloping because an increase in PC/PF leads both countries to shift their consumption mix away from cloth toward food.Figure 5-5: World Relative Supply and Demand(P99)RSRDRelative priceof cloth,

15、 PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*F(PC/PF)11lEconomic Growth: A Shift of the RS CurvelIs economic growth in other countries good or bad for our nation?lIt may be good for our nation because it means larger markets for our exports. lIt may mean increased competition for our exporters.l

16、Is growth in a country more or less valuable when that nation is part of a closely integrated world economy?lIt should be more valuable when a country can sell some of its increased production to the world market. lIt is less valuable when the benefits of growth are passed on to foreigners rather th

17、an retained at home.lGrowth and the Production Possibility FrontierlEconomic growth implies an outward shift of a countrys production possibility frontier (TT).lBiased growthlTakes place when TT shifts out more in one direction than in the other(P100)lCan occur for two reasons:lTechnological progres

18、s in one sector of the economy lIncrease in a countrys supply of a factor of productionFigure 5-6: Biased Growth(P100)TT1TT1TT2TT2Cloth production, QCFood production, QF(a) Growth biased toward clothCloth production, QCFood production, QF(b) Growth biased toward foodlRelative Supply and the Terms of

19、 TradelExport-biased growthlDisproportionately expands a countrys production possibilities in the direction of the good it exports(P101)lWorsens a growing countrys terms of trade, to the benefit of the rest of the worldlImport-biased growthlDisproportionately expands a countrys production possibilit

20、ies in the direction of the good it importslImproves a growing countrys terms of trade at the rest of the words expenseFigure 5-7: Growth and Relative Supply(P102)Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS1RD1(PC/PF)1RS2(PC/PF)22Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative

21、quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS2RD2(PC/PF)2RS1(PC/PF)11(a) Cloth-biased growth(b) Food-biased growthlInternational Effects of GrowthlExport-biased growth in the rest of the world improves our terms of trade, while import-biased growth abroad worsens our terms of trade.lExport-biased growth in

22、our country worsens our terms of trade, reducing the direct benefits of growth, while import-biased growth leads to an improvement of our terms of trade.Immiserizing growthA situation where export-biased growth by poor nations can worsen their terms of trade so much that they would be worse off than

23、 if they had not grown at all(P102)It can occur under extreme conditions: Strongly export-biased growth must be combined with very steep RS and RD curves.It is regarded by most economists as more a theoretical point than a real-world issue.Table 5-1: Average Annual Percent Changes in Terms of Tradel

24、International transfers of income, such as war reparations and foreign aid, may affect a countrys terms of trade by shifting the world relative demand curve.lRelative world demand for goods may shift because of:lChanges in tasteslChanges in technologylInternational transfers of incomelThe Transfer P

25、roblemlHow international transfers affect the terms of tradelEffects of a Transfer on the Terms of TradelWhen both countries allocate their change in spending in the same proportions (Ohlins point):lThe RD curve will not shift, and there will be no terms of trade effect.lWhen the two countries do no

26、t allocate their change in spending in the same proportions (Keyness point):lThe RD curve will shift and there will be a terms of trade effect.lThe direction of the effect on terms of trade will depend on the difference in Home and Foreign spending patterns.Figure 5-8: Effects of a Transfer on the T

27、erms of Trade(P106)Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRSRD2RD1(PC/PF)221(PC/PF)1lMarginal Propensity to Spend: the change of a countrys expenditure divided by the change of its income.lA transfer worsens the donors terms of trade if the donor has a higher margin

28、al propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient.(P106)lIf the donor has a lower marginal propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient,its terms of trade will actually improve.lPresumptions about the Terms of Trade Effects of TransferslA transfer will worsen the donors terms

29、 of trade if the donor has a higher marginal propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient.lIn practice, most countries spend a much higher share of their income on domestically produced goods than foreigners do.lThis is not necessarily due to differences in taste but rather to barriers

30、to trade, natural and artificial.非石油國的開展中國家的貿(mào)易條件19801001980100198195.0198294.4198393.5198495.1198592.8lImport tariffs(P109) and export subsidies (P109)affect both relative supply and relative demand.lRelative Demand and Supply Effects of a TarifflTariffs drive a wedge between the prices at which goo

31、ds are traded internationally (external prices) and the prices at which they are traded within a country (internal prices).lThe terms of trade correspond to external, not internal, prices.5-3 Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RDFigure 5-9: Effects of a Tariff on the Terms o

32、f Trade(P110)Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS1RD1RD2RS2 (PC/PF)11(PC/PF)22lEffects of an Export SubsidylTariffs and export subsidies are often treated as similar policies but they have opposite effects on the terms of trade.lExample: Suppose that Home offer

33、s 20% subsidy on the value of cloth exported:lThis will raise Homes internal price of cloth relative to food by 20%.lThis will lead Home producers to produce more cloth and less food.lA Home export subsidy worsens Homes terms of trade and improves Foreigns.(P111)Figure 5-10: Effects of a Subsidy on

34、the Terms of Trade(P111)Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS1RD1RD2RS2(PC/PF)11(PC/PF)22lImplications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses?lThe International Distribution of Income(p111)lIf Home (a large country) imposes a tariff, its welfare incr

35、eases as long as the tariff is not too large, while Foreigns welfare decreases.lIf Home offers an export subsidy, its welfare deteriorates, while Foreigns welfare increases.lThe Distribution of Income Within Countries(p112)lA tariff (subsidy) has the direct effect of raising the internal relative pr

36、ice of the imported (exported) good.lTariffs and export subsidies might have perverse effects on internal prices (Metzler paradox).(p112)lThe standard trade model provides a framework that can be used to address a wide range of international issues and admits previous trade models as special cases.lA countrys terms of trade are determined by the intersection of the world relative supply and demand curves.lEconomic growth is usually biased. Growth that is export-biased (import-biased) wo