風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的影響和對(duì)策

1、Reliable PowerReliable MarketsReliable PeopleReliable PowerReliable MarketsReliable People風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的影響和對(duì)策風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的影響和對(duì)策Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems and Market Operations Impact & Solution胡明 Ming Hu運(yùn)行規(guī)劃 (Operation Planning)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行及可靠性 (O & R)阿爾伯塔省電力運(yùn)行機(jī)構(gòu)(AESO)2阿爾伯塔省電力工業(yè)概況阿爾伯塔省電力工業(yè)概況Alber

2、tas Electric Industry 最大負(fù)荷最大負(fù)荷 (Peak load)：9,775 MW 年負(fù)荷系數(shù)年負(fù)荷系數(shù) (annual load factor)：80% 裝機(jī)容量裝機(jī)容量 (Installed Capacity)：12,368 MW 280臺(tái)發(fā)電機(jī)組臺(tái)發(fā)電機(jī)組 (generating units) 200電力交易商電力交易商 (Wholesale market participants) 21,000 km 輸電線輸電線 (Transmission line) 2對(duì)外聯(lián)絡(luò)線對(duì)外聯(lián)絡(luò)線 (Interties)：與：與BC省省780MW；與與 Sask.省省 150 MWBC

3、Alta.Sask.煤電煤電 Coal 5,893 MW燃?xì)怆姀S燃?xì)怆姀S Gas 4,895MW其它其它 Other214 MW風(fēng)電風(fēng)電 Wind523 MW水電水電 869MW主要風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目主要風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目 開(kāi)開(kāi)發(fā)地區(qū)發(fā)地區(qū) (Primary region) 11,000 MW 風(fēng)電風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目意向項(xiàng)目意向 (Wind power Interest)300 KM3風(fēng)電大規(guī)模并網(wǎng)對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行帶來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn)風(fēng)電大規(guī)模并網(wǎng)對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行帶來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn)The System Operation Challenge of Large-Scale Wind Power Integration 如何應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)電出力變化和不確定性如何應(yīng)

4、對(duì)風(fēng)電出力變化和不確定性How to handle the variability and uncertainty in System Operation理解風(fēng)電出力的變化規(guī)律理解風(fēng)電出力的變化規(guī)律 (風(fēng)電出力變化研究風(fēng)電出力變化研究)Understand the wind power variability (Wind power variability study)理解風(fēng)電出力的不確定性理解風(fēng)電出力的不確定性 (風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目)Understand wind power uncertainty (Wind power forecast pilot project)

5、理解和評(píng)估對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的影響理解和評(píng)估對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的影響 (系統(tǒng)影響分析系統(tǒng)影響分析, 1)Understand and assess the potential impact on system operation (System Impact study, phase-1)評(píng)估潛在的系統(tǒng)應(yīng)對(duì)措施及手段評(píng)估潛在的系統(tǒng)應(yīng)對(duì)措施及手段 (系統(tǒng)影響分析系統(tǒng)影響分析, 2)Assess potential mitigation solutions (System Impact study, phase-2)應(yīng)對(duì)措施的實(shí)施應(yīng)對(duì)措施的實(shí)施 (發(fā)展風(fēng)電的市場(chǎng)及運(yùn)行框架發(fā)展風(fēng)電的市場(chǎng)及運(yùn)行框架)Solution

6、s implementation (Market & Operation Framework)4理解風(fēng)電出力的不穩(wěn)定性理解風(fēng)電出力的不穩(wěn)定性Understand the wind power variability AESO 和風(fēng)電行業(yè)合作，完成了和風(fēng)電行業(yè)合作，完成了 “阿爾伯塔風(fēng)電出力變化研究阿爾伯塔風(fēng)電出力變化研究”AESO work with wind industry, contracted GENIVAR (Phoenix Engineering) to conduct “Alberta wind power variability study” 研究結(jié)果提供了研究結(jié)果提供了200

7、4年風(fēng)電出力全年每分鐘的仿真結(jié)果年風(fēng)電出力全年每分鐘的仿真結(jié)果 / Provided simulated minute-to-minute wind power data for the whole year (2004) 基于基于2004年氣候測(cè)量數(shù)據(jù)，未來(lái)風(fēng)電發(fā)站方案及風(fēng)電場(chǎng)模型年氣候測(cè)量數(shù)據(jù)，未來(lái)風(fēng)電發(fā)站方案及風(fēng)電場(chǎng)模型 / Based on measured meteorology data across southern Alberta of potential future wind farms and wind power production simulation model

8、4個(gè)未來(lái)風(fēng)電發(fā)站方案?jìng)€(gè)未來(lái)風(fēng)電發(fā)站方案 / For 4 scenarios (250MW, 900MW, 1500MW and 2000MW)250MW為為2004年已有規(guī)模，用于模型驗(yàn)證年已有規(guī)模，用于模型驗(yàn)證 / The 250MW was the existing wind power scenario, for the purpose of wind power production simulation model validation 為下一步的為下一步的 “風(fēng)電的系統(tǒng)影響風(fēng)電的系統(tǒng)影響”提供必要的基礎(chǔ)和數(shù)據(jù)提供必要的基礎(chǔ)和數(shù)據(jù) / The data was required an

9、d used later for AESO “Wind power system Impact studies” 研究的主要結(jié)論研究的主要結(jié)論: 風(fēng)電出力的不穩(wěn)定隨著發(fā)展規(guī)模的增加而增大風(fēng)電出力的不穩(wěn)定隨著發(fā)展規(guī)模的增加而增大, 但由于分布但由于分布的分散互補(bǔ)性，并非按比例增大。的分散互補(bǔ)性，并非按比例增大。 / A key conclusion of this study: The wind power variability does increase with the wind power development level, but not proportionally due to

10、diversification5理解風(fēng)電出力的不穩(wěn)定性理解風(fēng)電出力的不穩(wěn)定性(2) 分散互補(bǔ)性分散互補(bǔ)性 Understand the Variability of Wind Power (2) Diversification 不同分布的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)出力不穩(wěn)定性的疊加不同分布的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)出力不穩(wěn)定性的疊加 分散互補(bǔ)的影響分散互補(bǔ)的影響The combined variability of different wind farms Diversification impact 不同分布的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)出力不穩(wěn)定性的疊加不是簡(jiǎn)單的算術(shù)疊加，而是向量疊加，不同分布的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)出力不穩(wěn)定性的疊加不是簡(jiǎn)單的算術(shù)疊加，而是向量

11、疊加，向量的方向取決于不同風(fēng)電場(chǎng)的相關(guān)情況。向量的方向取決于不同風(fēng)電場(chǎng)的相關(guān)情況。The combined variability (random nature) is the vector-sum of each individual variability other than simple-sum 完全正相關(guān)完全正相關(guān) 相互獨(dú)立相互獨(dú)立 完全反相關(guān)完全反相關(guān) positive correlate independent negative correlate 空間分散空間分散 / 時(shí)間互補(bǔ)時(shí)間互補(bǔ) (Diversification: Space / Time) 對(duì)短時(shí)出力變化互補(bǔ)明顯對(duì)短時(shí)

12、出力變化互補(bǔ)明顯 morefor short-term variability 對(duì)長(zhǎng)期出力變化互補(bǔ)性減低對(duì)長(zhǎng)期出力變化互補(bǔ)性減低 (持續(xù)增減持續(xù)增減)lessand morefor long-term variability (Ramping issue) 取決于風(fēng)場(chǎng)的位置分布和風(fēng)向取決于風(fēng)場(chǎng)的位置分布和風(fēng)向 / Also related with location distribution of wind farms and wind directions 6理解風(fēng)電出力的不確定性理解風(fēng)電出力的不確定性 風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目Understand the Uncertain

13、ty of Wind Power (1) - Forecasting Pilot Project 試點(diǎn)三種不同的預(yù)測(cè)方法試點(diǎn)三種不同的預(yù)測(cè)方法 ，為期，為期1年年 / Trial three very different forecasting methods over a one year period:AWS Truewind (US)WEPROG (Denmark)Energy and Meteo (Germany) 分別針對(duì)分別針對(duì)4個(gè)不同地理氣候條件的地區(qū)個(gè)不同地理氣候條件的地區(qū) 4 different geographic terrains / wind regimes in Al

14、berta 每小時(shí)提供未來(lái)每小時(shí)提供未來(lái)1-48小時(shí)的平均風(fēng)速，矗立及小時(shí)的平均風(fēng)速，矗立及變化變化 / T-1 to T-48 hours forecasted refreshed hourly (w/s, MWs, ramp rate) 7個(gè)現(xiàn)有風(fēng)場(chǎng)，個(gè)現(xiàn)有風(fēng)場(chǎng)，5個(gè)未來(lái)風(fēng)場(chǎng)個(gè)未來(lái)風(fēng)場(chǎng) / 7 existing and 5 future facilities to represent geographic diversity and future expansion 統(tǒng)一的風(fēng)場(chǎng)氣象數(shù)據(jù)收集統(tǒng)一的風(fēng)場(chǎng)氣象數(shù)據(jù)收集 / On-site Met Data Collection by GENIVA

15、R 獨(dú)立的結(jié)果分析獨(dú)立的結(jié)果分析 / Independent analytical analysis from ORTECH Power Funded by Alberta Electric System OperatorAlberta Energy Research InstituteAlberta Department Of Energy7理解風(fēng)電出力的不確定性理解風(fēng)電出力的不確定性 (2) 預(yù)測(cè)誤差實(shí)例預(yù)測(cè)誤差實(shí)例Understand the Uncertainty of Wind Power (2) - forecast error example 時(shí)間誤差時(shí)間誤差Phase Erro

16、r誤報(bào)誤報(bào)False Alarm變化率誤差變化率誤差Ramp Rate漏報(bào)漏報(bào)Miss8理解風(fēng)電的不確定性理解風(fēng)電的不確定性 (3) Understand the Uncertainty of Wind Power - (3) 不確定性不等同于變化不確定性不等同于變化 / Uncertainty is different than Variability 不確定性只是無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)的變化預(yù)測(cè)誤差不確定性只是無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)的變化預(yù)測(cè)誤差 Uncertainty is only the unpredictable variability forecast error 風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)的相對(duì)誤差高于負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)電出力

17、預(yù)測(cè)的相對(duì)誤差高于負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè) / The relative degree of uncertainty of wind power is bigger than load based on todays forecast capability1日前預(yù)測(cè)日前預(yù)測(cè): 負(fù)荷一般負(fù)荷一般1-3%，風(fēng)電，風(fēng)電 10% (100%?) Day-ahead forecast: 1-3% error for load vs. 10% for wind power 準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)電出力變化有難度準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)電出力變化有難度 / The prediction of wind power ramping is challe

18、nging 常用的預(yù)測(cè)誤差指標(biāo)，例如常用的預(yù)測(cè)誤差指標(biāo)，例如: 平均平均|誤差誤差|、方差等不適用、方差等不適用 / The standard accuracy metrics used to describe forecast performance may not be applicable or meaningful to system operations, such as MAPE, RMSE because they can suppress ramping signals需要制定新的預(yù)測(cè)誤差指標(biāo)，能夠全面反映幅值、相位、誤報(bào)、漏報(bào)及變化趨勢(shì)誤差需要制定新的預(yù)測(cè)誤差指標(biāo)，能夠全面反

19、映幅值、相位、誤報(bào)、漏報(bào)及變化趨勢(shì)誤差 / Need some accuracy metrics that can describe not only magnitude error, but also phase error, false-alarm rate, capture-rate, ramping rate errorAESO制定了基于出力變化事件的幅值制定了基于出力變化事件的幅值/相位誤差圖相位誤差圖AESO developed an changing-event-based magnitude/phase accuracy chart to assess and understa

20、nd wind power forecast capability9理解風(fēng)電出力變化及不確定對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的影響理解風(fēng)電出力變化及不確定對(duì)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的影響Understand and Assess the System Impact of Wind Power Variability and Uncertainty (1) 系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵是要維持實(shí)時(shí)的系統(tǒng)供需平衡系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵是要維持實(shí)時(shí)的系統(tǒng)供需平衡 / System operation involves maintaining a constant balance between supply and demand 包括包括4個(gè)重要環(huán)節(jié)個(gè)重要環(huán)節(jié) /

21、Four key aspects to achieving system balance 預(yù)測(cè)維持系統(tǒng)供需平衡的平衡能力預(yù)測(cè)維持系統(tǒng)供需平衡的平衡能力 / Ability to forecast the balancing requirement 保證充足的系統(tǒng)資源保證充足的系統(tǒng)資源 / Adequate system resources for this requirement 容量，備用及調(diào)節(jié)控制能力容量，備用及調(diào)節(jié)控制能力 / Supply sources (generation) and control sources (ancillary services) 相應(yīng)的運(yùn)行規(guī)程相應(yīng)的運(yùn)行

22、規(guī)程 / Operating policies and procedures 實(shí)時(shí)的運(yùn)行決策實(shí)時(shí)的運(yùn)行決策 / Real-time operating decisions 風(fēng)電出力變化及不確定對(duì)以上風(fēng)電出力變化及不確定對(duì)以上4個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)均有影響個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)均有影響 / The variability and uncertainty of wind power may impact all of the above aspects 2種分析方法：理論分析，仿真分析種分析方法：理論分析，仿真分析Two ways to analyze impact: statistical and simulation10運(yùn)

23、行預(yù)測(cè)運(yùn)行預(yù)測(cè) Operation Forecasting系統(tǒng)影響分析方法系統(tǒng)影響分析方法 / / System Impact Analysis Framework其它變化及不確定其它變化及不確定Othervariability & uncertainties系統(tǒng)整體系統(tǒng)整體變化變化及不確定及不確定System Overallvariability & uncertainties負(fù)荷變化及不確定負(fù)荷變化及不確定Loadvariability &uncertainties風(fēng)電變化及不確定風(fēng)電變化及不確定Wind Power variability & uncertainties區(qū)域控制誤差區(qū)域控

24、制誤差A(yù)CE性能指標(biāo)性能指標(biāo)1CPS1性能指標(biāo)性能指標(biāo)2CPS2輸電能力越限輸電能力越限OTCViolation基于理論的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析基于理論的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析Statistical analysis實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)度模擬實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)度模擬/ Real-timeDispatch simulation衡量各種變化的指標(biāo)衡量各種變化的指標(biāo)Variability indices發(fā)電備用調(diào)度發(fā)電備用調(diào)度模擬結(jié)果模擬結(jié)果Simulation of Energy market, Regulating reserve & Tie flow模擬的模擬的性能指標(biāo)性能指標(biāo)Simulated results of:ACE, CPS2OTC v

25、iolations非計(jì)劃潮流非計(jì)劃潮流UnscheduledInterchange運(yùn)行性能運(yùn)行性能評(píng)估評(píng)估 Performance Assessment潮流交換潮流交換發(fā)電調(diào)度發(fā)電調(diào)度備用調(diào)度備用調(diào)度Interchange schedulingEnergy market dispatch Ancillary services各種運(yùn)行規(guī)程各種運(yùn)行規(guī)程O(píng)perating policies & procedures11統(tǒng)計(jì)分析實(shí)例：統(tǒng)計(jì)分析實(shí)例：1小時(shí)的變化分析小時(shí)的變化分析Statistic analysis example: 1 hour variability負(fù)荷與風(fēng)電出力相互獨(dú)負(fù)荷與風(fēng)電出力

26、相互獨(dú)立立The variability of load and wind power are independent隨著風(fēng)電的增加，風(fēng)電隨著風(fēng)電的增加，風(fēng)電出力對(duì)系統(tǒng)整體的變化出力對(duì)系統(tǒng)整體的變化及不確定的影響從可忽及不確定的影響從可忽略到共同主導(dǎo)略到共同主導(dǎo)As wind power increase, the wind power variability can increase the overall system variability to a level that can not be ignored and more dominate12統(tǒng)計(jì)分析實(shí)例：統(tǒng)計(jì)分析實(shí)例：4小時(shí)的系統(tǒng)

27、不確定性影響小時(shí)的系統(tǒng)不確定性影響Statistic analysis example: 4 hour uncertainty風(fēng)電不確定性對(duì)系風(fēng)電不確定性對(duì)系統(tǒng)整體不確定性的統(tǒng)整體不確定性的影響隨電規(guī)模增大影響隨電規(guī)模增大而增大而增大 / The wind power uncertainty can have ignorable or significant impact on overall system uncertainty depend on the penetration level and timeframes風(fēng)電增加對(duì)系統(tǒng)不風(fēng)電增加對(duì)系統(tǒng)不確定性的影響更加確定性的影響更加顯著顯著

28、Wind power uncertainty could increase faster than load as level increase13統(tǒng)計(jì)分析實(shí)例：風(fēng)電出力持續(xù)變化分析統(tǒng)計(jì)分析實(shí)例：風(fēng)電出力持續(xù)變化分析Statistic analysis example: Changing event-based analysis250MW900MW1500MW2000MW隨著風(fēng)電規(guī)模的增大隨著風(fēng)電規(guī)模的增大There will be more, longer and faster persistent system changing as wind penetration increase對(duì)調(diào)

29、節(jié)跟蹤能力有限對(duì)調(diào)節(jié)跟蹤能力有限的系統(tǒng)帶來(lái)壓力的系統(tǒng)帶來(lái)壓力 It put pressure on system with limited ramping capability 幅度幅度1400-1600MW 歷歷時(shí)時(shí)5-6小時(shí)小時(shí)系統(tǒng)持續(xù)變化系統(tǒng)持續(xù)變化發(fā)生發(fā)生4次次 / there is 4 changing events with duration of 5-6 hours and ramp-down magnitude of 1400-1600MW 14Step 2: 每分鐘仿真每分鐘仿真1-minute simulation 仿真分析，方法及假設(shè)條件仿真分析，方法及假設(shè)條件Simul

30、ation-based analysis, Methodology and AssumptionStep 3: 計(jì)算對(duì)運(yùn)行性能的影響計(jì)算對(duì)運(yùn)行性能的影響 / Calculate impact to system performance criteriaCPS2OTC violationStep 1: 發(fā)電調(diào)度決策仿真發(fā)電調(diào)度決策仿真Determine Energy Market Dispatch(Every 20 minutes) 未來(lái)未來(lái)20分鐘調(diào)度決策分鐘調(diào)度決策Energy Market Dispatch for next 20 minutes當(dāng)前調(diào)度誤差當(dāng)前調(diào)度誤差Current Su

31、pply-Demand Imbalance (ACE)預(yù)期負(fù)荷變化預(yù)期負(fù)荷變化Expected Load change 潮流交換計(jì)劃潮流交換計(jì)劃Interchange Schedule change風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)Expected wind generation (persistent forecast )調(diào)度有效性準(zhǔn)則調(diào)度有效性準(zhǔn)則出力調(diào)度幅度應(yīng)出力調(diào)度幅度應(yīng) 20MWDispatch validationMW threshold, if imbalance within +/- 20MW, no instruction is made and any imbalance is ha

32、ndled by RR or ACE計(jì)算調(diào)度出力變化，考慮系統(tǒng)計(jì)算調(diào)度出力變化，考慮系統(tǒng)應(yīng)變速度和相應(yīng)時(shí)間應(yīng)變速度和相應(yīng)時(shí)間Calculate the Energy market movement with ramping capability limitation and response delay 計(jì)算調(diào)度出力與實(shí)際需求間的誤差計(jì)算調(diào)度出力與實(shí)際需求間的誤差 / Calculate the mismatch between supply and demand計(jì)算平衡計(jì)算平衡出力出力誤差所需的調(diào)節(jié)備用誤差所需的調(diào)節(jié)備用 / Calculate required regulating res

33、erve movement to balance the mismatch 10% of MW range/min無(wú)法平衡的誤差即為無(wú)法平衡的誤差即為“區(qū)域控制誤區(qū)域控制誤差差” Remaining mismatch is simulated ACE遞歸迭代算法遞歸迭代算法Recursive Iteration Algorithm15基于仿真的分析，仿真模型分析界面基于仿真的分析，仿真模型分析界面Simulation-based analysis, Simulation model GUI Load風(fēng)電出力風(fēng)電出力Wind power仿真調(diào)度出力仿真調(diào)度出力Simulated EMD歷史調(diào)度出

34、力歷史調(diào)度出力Historical EMD潮流輸出限制潮流輸出限制Export Limit潮流輸入限制潮流輸入限制Import Limit潮流計(jì)劃潮流計(jì)劃InterchangeSchedule仿真潮流交換仿真潮流交換Simulated Interchange歷史區(qū)控誤差歷史區(qū)控誤差HIST. ACE仿真區(qū)控誤差仿真區(qū)控誤差SIM. ACE調(diào)節(jié)備用容量調(diào)節(jié)備用容量RR range仿真?zhèn)溆谜{(diào)度仿真?zhèn)溆谜{(diào)度SIM. RR dispatch仿真區(qū)控誤差SIM. ACE仿真性能指標(biāo)越限仿真性能指標(biāo)越限SIM. CPS2 Violation余度余度Ld-Ld20-min moving minimum of

35、f-schedule輸電可靠性備用輸電可靠性備用TRMSystem data quality TagWind power data quality Tag16系統(tǒng)影響分析系統(tǒng)影響分析 1 結(jié)論結(jié)論System Impact Study phase-1 conclusions 4個(gè)風(fēng)電開(kāi)發(fā)方案?jìng)€(gè)風(fēng)電開(kāi)發(fā)方案(包括包括1個(gè)當(dāng)前方案，驗(yàn)正模型個(gè)當(dāng)前方案，驗(yàn)正模型)，用以確定風(fēng)電增加對(duì)系統(tǒng)，用以確定風(fēng)電增加對(duì)系統(tǒng)的增量影響。所有個(gè)風(fēng)電發(fā)展方案都有性能指標(biāo)越陷的問(wèn)題的增量影響。所有個(gè)風(fēng)電發(fā)展方案都有性能指標(biāo)越陷的問(wèn)題4 wind development scenarios (existing + 3 f

36、uture), to identify the incremental impact effect. All 3 growth scenarios studied resulted in one or more performance violations. 分析結(jié)果顯示風(fēng)電增加和系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行控制性能指標(biāo)下降和傳輸能力越限的因果分析結(jié)果顯示風(fēng)電增加和系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行控制性能指標(biāo)下降和傳輸能力越限的因果關(guān)系關(guān)系 / There is an observable relationship between increased wind power development, Decreased CPS2 perf

37、ormance and Increased OTC violations. 大規(guī)模風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)運(yùn)行將需要制定、實(shí)施應(yīng)對(duì)措施以保證系統(tǒng)的安全可靠運(yùn)行大規(guī)模風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)運(yùn)行將需要制定、實(shí)施應(yīng)對(duì)措施以保證系統(tǒng)的安全可靠運(yùn)行It is highly likely that mitigating measures will need to be developed and implemented in order to integrate large scale wind power and maintain the reliable and safe system operation17調(diào)查評(píng)估各種針對(duì)出力變

38、化和不確定性的應(yīng)對(duì)措施調(diào)查評(píng)估各種針對(duì)出力變化和不確定性的應(yīng)對(duì)措施 系統(tǒng)影響分析系統(tǒng)影響分析Investigate and Assess Different Mitigation solutions of Power Variability and Uncertainty (10) System Impact Study phase-2 有效的應(yīng)對(duì)措施包括： / Effective mitigating measures for wind power integration are: 風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè) / wind power forecasting 增加發(fā)電調(diào)度的可控變化能力 / More en

39、ergy market ramping capability 增加的調(diào)節(jié)備用或追蹤備用容量 / additional regulating or following service 風(fēng)電出力管理 / wind power management 無(wú)效的應(yīng)對(duì)措施 / The ineffective mitigating measures are: 負(fù)荷的自然增長(zhǎng) / Increases in AIES load 增加調(diào)節(jié)備用的調(diào)節(jié)速度 / Increasing the regulating reserves ramp rate18風(fēng)電出力變化及不確定應(yīng)對(duì)措施的實(shí)施風(fēng)電出力變化及不確定應(yīng)對(duì)措施的實(shí)施

40、 AESO發(fā)展風(fēng)電市場(chǎng)發(fā)展風(fēng)電市場(chǎng)&運(yùn)行框架運(yùn)行框架Solutions of Wind Power Variability and Uncertainty- AESO Market and Operation Framework (MOF) for Wind Power Integration (1) 原則：在保證系統(tǒng)安全可靠運(yùn)行和市場(chǎng)公平和效率的同時(shí)盡量增加風(fēng)電的并網(wǎng)原則：在保證系統(tǒng)安全可靠運(yùn)行和市場(chǎng)公平和效率的同時(shí)盡量增加風(fēng)電的并網(wǎng)Tointegrate as much wind power into the Alberta system as is feasible without co

41、mpromisingsystem reliability or the fair, efficient and openly competitive operation of the market. 目的是建立一個(gè)穩(wěn)固的基礎(chǔ)作為通過(guò)實(shí)踐不斷改進(jìn)完善的起點(diǎn)目的是建立一個(gè)穩(wěn)固的基礎(chǔ)作為通過(guò)實(shí)踐不斷改進(jìn)完善的起點(diǎn)The intent is to develop a solid starting point from which to continuously improve 建立適當(dāng)?shù)臋C(jī)制使得市場(chǎng)力量能夠優(yōu)化解決方案建立適當(dāng)?shù)臋C(jī)制使得市場(chǎng)力量能夠優(yōu)化解決方案 / To set up proper m

42、echanism to allow the market force lead to solutions optimization 在獲得合理風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)的前提下，運(yùn)行人員可以制定計(jì)劃采用以下措施吸收預(yù)在獲得合理風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)的前提下，運(yùn)行人員可以制定計(jì)劃采用以下措施吸收預(yù)測(cè)的分風(fēng)電發(fā)電測(cè)的分風(fēng)電發(fā)電 / The premise If the System Operator receives a reasonable forecast of wind power generation, then they can establish an operating plan to accommodat

43、e the forecast wind energy by using the following resources / tools:預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè) / Forecasting發(fā)電調(diào)度排序發(fā)電調(diào)度排序 / The Energy Market Merit Order調(diào)節(jié)備用調(diào)節(jié)備用 / Regulating Reserves跟蹤備用跟蹤備用 / Wind Following Services風(fēng)電出力管理風(fēng)電出力管理 / Wind Power Management 19市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行框架市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行框架 具體工作具體工作AESO MOF for Wind Power Integration Work strea

44、ms 市場(chǎng)&運(yùn)行規(guī)則 / Market & Operating Rules 風(fēng)電出力管理 / Wind Power Management 風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè) / Wind Power Forecasting 額外的輔助服務(wù)的預(yù)測(cè)和獲取 / Additional Accessory Services Forecast / Procurement 系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行輔助軟件工具系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行輔助軟件工具 / System Operator Tools 接入系統(tǒng) / Interconnection 接入排序管理 / Queue Management Practices 接入系統(tǒng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn) (出力管理、預(yù)測(cè)等) / Standa

45、rds for Interconnection (Power Management & Forecasting Requirement) 電源發(fā)展方案預(yù)測(cè)方法 / Generator Scenario Development Methodology 輸電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃 / Transmission Planning 鼓勵(lì)分散多樣性 / Diversity20具體工作之一運(yùn)行輔助軟件工具具體工作之一運(yùn)行輔助軟件工具M(jìn)OF Work Stream (1) Operator tools 分析工具 / Engineering tool 用以在設(shè)計(jì)、測(cè)試各種可能實(shí)施的運(yùn)行規(guī)程 / To design and t

46、est protocols, procedures before implementation into OPPs 實(shí)時(shí)運(yùn)行的輔助工具 / Real-time system operation tool 用以幫助有效管理 / To effectively manage: 各種規(guī)程的實(shí)時(shí)操作 / The procedures in the real-time 保證復(fù)雜運(yùn)行決策的有效、一致和透明度 / complicated real-time system operation with Efficiency, Consistency and Transparency 提供知識(shí)、信息、經(jīng)驗(yàn)共享和不

47、斷完善的共享平臺(tái)Common basis for knowledge sharing, experience and continuous improvement21運(yùn)行輔助軟件工具的功能框架運(yùn)行輔助軟件工具的功能框架Work stream Tools: Architecture各種分析評(píng)估各種分析評(píng)估Operation assessmentTo balance between Supply and DemandTo assess the situation & risk of: System Ramping Capability Supply Shortfall issue Supply Surplus (Zero-offer) issue Minimum technical output issue OTC violation issueActual Generator output (PI) Energy & RRDispatch logs (EMS)系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)系統(tǒng)狀態(tài) / System StatusL