改革以來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(英文)

1、The CES Conference July 30-31, 2004 Atlanta,Georgia,U.S.A.Changsheng XuProfessor of EconomicsSchool of EconomicsHuazhong University of Science & TechnologyWuhan, ChinaEmail:1.The Situation and Characteristics of Chinas Business Cycles of 25 Years since the Reform General characteristic of Chinas mac

2、roeconomy: high growth+unstability The Performance of unstability:4 Cycles and 2 Stages Table 1 Growth Rate and Inflation Rate of China since the Reform (1978-2004)Source:SSBC,Statistical Yearbook of China and Statistical Bulletin, related years, China Statistical Publishing House (CSPH).Year1978199

3、198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991Real Growth Rate of GDP(%)11.77.67.94.58.510.214.512.98.511.111.34.33.97.0Inflation Rate(%)7.02.06.02.41.91.52.88.86.07.318.517.82.12.9Year1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004上半年Real Growth Rate of GDP （%）12.813.411.810.29.78.87.87.18.0

4、7.38.09.19.7Inflation Rate(%)5.413.321.714.86.10.8-2.6-3.00.41.0-0.81.23.6 CycleLength of TimeContractionExpansionPeriodYearsPeriodGap of Annual Growth Ratefrom Peak to Trough (%)PeriodGap of Annual Growth Ratefrom Peak to Trough (%)1978-198361978-1980(3 years)7.21981-1983(3 years)+10.01984-19874198

5、4-1985(2 years)6.01986-1987 (2 years)+2.81988-199251988-1989(2 years)7.41990-1992 (3 years)+9.51993-presentunknown1993-2001(8 years)6.32002- unknown unknownSources: Table 1.Table 2 The Fluctuation Situation of 4 Business Cycles of China since the ReformSource: Table 1. Figure 1 4 Business Cycles of

6、China (1978-2004)Two Stages：（1）19781996, Fighting Inflation Stage （2）19972002, Fighting Deflation Stage:Table 1.-505101520251978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998:Source :YearInflation RateGrowth Rate-505101520251978 1979 1980 1981 19

7、82 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 20042.The Causes of High Inflation during 1978-1996 In this stage, the first problem of Chinas economy is curbing the high inflation with fast economic growth. 4 peaks of high inflation： (1)197

8、8:7.0% (2)1985:8.8% (3)1988:18.5% (4)1994:21.7%Causes of High Inflation： (1)The Demand-pulled Inflation The AD expanding mechanism with Chinese characteristic： The political decision by the highest leaders Investment projects approved be the National Plan committee Increasing the fiscal expenditure

9、of investment by the Ministry of Finance, and expanding the loan by the state-owned banks Expansion of AD Economic growth Inflation rate(2) The Cost-pushed Inflation with the Rise of the Price of Agricultural Products The Structural problem of the dual economy between the rural areas and the cities:

10、 Expansion of industries in the citiesThe price of the industrial Products The relative price of the agricultural products The advantageous profit of agricultureThe peasants are not willing to go in for farming, and the industrial land are increasing Area under cultivation Wage and the price of indu

11、strial products Inflation rate (3) The Inflation in the Transition Process from the Planned Economy to the Market Economy The reform of the price system from the planned price to market pricing makes the hidden inflation in the shortage economy come out into the open. (4) The Structural Inflation Be

12、cause the basic industries are more controlled by the government, while the processing industries are more adjusted be market, when the economy goes into expanding, the supply of the basic industries is not sufficient to meet the demand of the processing industries. So the price of former products r

13、ise firstly and pushes the latter price level going up. (5) Conclusion The Chinas inflation has the Chinese characteristics in the process of the transition of economic system and the industrialization.3.The Causes of the Deflation during 19972002 In this stage, the first problem had turned to be ov

14、erproduction, unemployment and deflation. So the macroeconomic policy had changed into expanding the domestic demand from the curbing the high inflation in the above stage.The Causes of Deflation:Shocks of 4 Waves(1) The First Wave Shock：The Bursting of the Inflation Bubble during 1992-1993 The Lagg

15、ed effect of the tightening fiscal and monetary policies called “soft-landing” during 1993-1996.(2)The Second Wave Shock:The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 Direct shock:export and foreign investment Indirect shock:tightening of credit For guarding against the financial risk, Chinas bank system stren

16、gthened the loan responsibility and withdrew the loan rightLoan Investment (3)The Third Wave Shock:Intensification of the Deep Contradictions in the Economic System and Structure (After 1998) 1) Deepening the reform of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and related reforms of the traditional social

17、security system of employment, endowment, public health services, housing, and the free high education systemRisk and uncertainty Expected expenditure Propensity to save，Propensity to consume C/GDP 2) Further widening of the income differencePropensity to consume 3) Breaking of the consumption struc

18、turepropensity to consume In the cities, upgrading of the consumption level became difficult because of the lack of the modern consumption credit system. In the countryside, the peasants income went down relatively or absolutely because the prices of agricultural products dropped, many township and

19、village enterprises (TVEs) went bankrupt, and the employment of rural surplus labor force in the cities decreased. (4)The Fourth Wave Shock: The U.S., E.U. and Japan fell into economic recession meanwhile (2001-2002) Growth rate of export (5) Conclusion: Chinas deflation reflect the cyclical, instit

20、utional and structural characteristics of Chinas economy in this stage, meanwhile it was affected greatly by the outside economic shocks.4. The New Round Expansion and Rise of Inflation since the Second Half of 2003 (1) Basic Performance The whole economy is picking up, the part industries such as e

21、nergy and raw materials are too hot. (2) Two Engines of Investment and Export While the growth rate of consumption is stable. The annual growth rate of the fixed investment in 2003 is 28%, the first quarter of 2004 is 43%, the first half of 2004 is 28.6% The annual growth rate of export in 2003 is 3

22、7%, the first half of 2004 is 35.7% (3)Causes of Investment Expansion Directed or pushed by the new term local governments because of the growth competition. Credit expansion because of the pressure of the bank system to reduce the bad asset rate.5. Conclusion:The Characteristics of Chinas Business

23、Cycles (1) The 4 Cycles since the reform shows the high economic growth in China is unstable, and costs of fighting inflation or deflation is huge. But generally, the macroeconomic policies are comparatively successful. They make inflation or deflation under the control. This is because that the central government of China has stro