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1、The Analysis of the Issue Related to the Feasibility ofStudy the Real Estate Project on the Basis of theImplicit CostAbstract: It is known that the feasibility study of real estate project plays an important role in real estate development. Nevertheless, there still remains many problems in the feas
2、ibility study. In this paper, the concept of implicit cost will be introduced, which will be used to analyse these problems.Meanwhile, some useful strategies will be raised for these problems,which intends to further improve the feasibility study of the real estate projects.Keywords: real estate pro
3、ject; feasibility study; implicit cost; problems1. IntroductionThe feasibility study is the decision science has been used in project area, and the basic target is on the basis of the comprehensive investigating and researching to identify a construction object whether have the characteristics of pr
4、ogressive, reality and reliable in the whole prosess from previously project construction to line operation. We also need to know those whether can pay off from the finance and the credibility in the economy to give a big help for the investating decisions. It is real role that a framework to invest
5、ing project , and is the key factors that can decide the project can be invested or not to give some supports on the project decisions. The real estate is characteristic of accounting for huge financing, a long period relative to the investing and easily influenced by the instable factors. Therefore
6、, the the feasibility study is very important for the real estate. However, currently we are more and more focusing on the explicit cost in the feasibility study and ignoring the intangible cost. The intangible cost is , as opposed to explicit cost and hided among the total cost of enterprise, cause
7、d by the decision maker characterized by lower diathesis, wrong concept, and the deficiency of informations, coupled with the non-market factors to lead to the total cost increaseing directly or indirectly . The amount of economic benefits of the project largely depend on getting full knowledge of t
8、he intangible cost in the real estate.2. The Existence of the Questions Lied in the Feasibility Study on the Basis of the Intangible CostRecently, the real estate have got a big improvement in the feasibility study. As the main contents and methods, it have been normed and stabilized gradually to us
9、e in the project decisions. But that is fact that the feasibility study cannot play the role above mentioned in the real case. The worst case is that there is no the feasibility study before starting the work. And another events is that the feasibility study had been done, but the result was not fit
10、 to the requestions. The main problems are following:2.1. The Investor with Low Diathesis Did Not Pay More Attentions on itUntil now, a number of the investors did not get a clear clue and realize the importantance related to thefeasibilitystudy. Theyhad made a decision whether buildingthe real esta
11、te reliedon their own wish,andreckonedthe feasibilitystudy wasjust a “ payablepaper ”to submit to lendinginstitution, investorandgovernment. There is no meaning in the feasibility study because of carrying on is not thorough, focusing onthe format. Therefore,the “ feasibility study ”is the aim thath
12、ow to get a permission from the relateddepartment and a loan from the bank, so the data cannot be used to reflect the real conditions. The economicbenefits of the whole real estate project have decreased, even failed that was mainl y ascribed to the invetor sattitude, ignoring the importance of feas
13、ibility study. Those are called the intangible cost. The other factors islinked closely with calibre that aexcellent decision maker should be characterized by determination,confidence, far-sighted.ect. When a favorite investing project lie in front of a investor, he must be confidenceand determinati
14、on to make a decision as soon as possible, or the problems relative to the economic benefitslost wouldbe happened to create the intangible cost. Moreover, the investorshould have the characters offar-sighted to consider the investingprocess, and not care the “ gainand loss”in a small events to make
15、awrong decision. It is obviously thatthe high-calibre is an veryimportant factor to the investor to avoid theintangible cost.2.2. The Feasibility Study Related to theConstruction Project is Mainly Completed by the Consultant Agency and Design Dthe Deviser Has Low-CalibreDepartment of construction en
16、trusted by investor. It is possible that the accuracy largely depend on thoseinstitutions level controlled by the deviser s calibre. Unfortunately, a huge number of devisers are lackinthe attitude on seek truth from facts. They have partially used the data to optimistically evaluate the marketprice
17、movement. They also did not exploit the market survey in details to predict the market prospect; at thesame time, they did not care about some faults, however, more lights shed in exaggerateing the advantages oftechnologyand product that reducing the success rate ofinvesting. On the basis of the dev
18、isers havinglow-calibre, the feasibility study cannot be completed by course of correct way and canonical process that thedecision maker got a wrong judgement to result in lostingthe economic benefits, even the whole project sdepleting.2.3. The Analysis and Forecasting of the Market is not EnoughThe
19、 earning power of investing project is not only depending on the all kinds of available resources, butalso relying on the current and potential requests needed by society. Currently, there are no more attenionsconcentrated on the market survey and forecasting in the feasibility study. A large number
20、s of data came fromthe related researchers experience and social relations. Even though they did a survey and forecasted themarket trend, the results are more qualitative analysis than quantitative. The data measured by above processcannot really reflect the market condition and prospect. It is seem
21、ly like having good benefits, because of thefault existed in the analysis and forecasting of market to lead to the investing project has to face the condition“ having a price but no sales” . Those can be avoided according to the reseacher s endeavor.2.4. There is No Comparative among Every ProjectA
22、larger numbers of reseachers pay more attentions on the single project than the comprehensive in the feasibility study. In some cases, they also analyse some projects at the same time but a particular one will be analysed more deeper than another analysed superficially. The decision maker have to ac
23、cept the project choosed by reseachers on their wishes, and then the comprehensive researching changed into single will lose the meaning in the feasibility study. Because lack of the comparative project, leading to the economic benefits related to the finance will be fixed to lose the chance of gett
24、ing more benefits from the market to create more intangible cost.2.5. Ignoring the Value of the Environmental AssessmentThere are many faults lies in the currently environmental assessment showed by the report of feasibility study. In some cases, there is few contents and the analysing superficially
25、 about the environmental assessment, because of there is no surveying the surroundings nearby the project or the assessment is not correct. It is obviously that those are contradiction with the strategy of sustainable development developed by our country. Moreover, there is no consideration between
26、the project and sustaining ability of environment carried out bythe investor. As a result, the developing intensity will exceed the loading capacity of environment near by the project to produce seriously environment contamination. This will increase the project later environmental protection costs,
27、 such as controling environmental pollution and strengthen the green, ect.There is a serious environmental evaluation work to be needed on environmental protection, and using real data reflect the revenue and expenditure to provide true evidences for the final decision. However, many of the feasibil
28、ity study overlooked this respect that the project had been put more money in late to produce increasely the intangible cost.2.6. Dont Pay Attention to the Analysis of the Sensitivity and Risk FactorsThe estate project itself has a high risk and investing, because of there are some uncertain factors
29、 inproject implementationprocess. Withthese uncertainties, the investment project there is a risk, thus theuncertainty of the whole project is of vital importance. If the feasibilitystudy of these risk factors wereaccurately analysed that will cause additional costs of the project.In practical work
30、of the feasibility study , theanalysis of risk is not enough or only stay in qualitative analysis, give a quantitative analysis. Though some ofthem to quantify, but either quantitative method unsuitable or quantitative results do not take seriously, nothave a good understanding to project risk facto
31、rs , thus make some project in concrete implementation appearof risk or risk factors change , led to increase costs and economic benefit greatly decreased, causing therecessive cost of production.3. Countermeasures of Feasibility Study3.1. Strengthening Ideological Education and Quality Education of
32、 the Decision MakerIn order to make feasibility study go smoothly, decision makers should be educated to fully realize the importance and function of the feasibility study. The ideologycal recognition and definite feasibility study effect, so that it can from the fundamental guarantee of feasibility
33、 study work smoothly. In addition, there must be necessary education to investors to improve the quality and professional skills of their own, so that when making decisions they can decisively and correctly make decision to reduce implicit costs and increase profits.3.2. Improving ability of the dev
34、iserInstitutions of training feasibility study professional must be established and perfected ,related departments should organize professional training regularly. Professional ethics education should is necessary to make professionals realize the importance of feasibility study; in the mean time ,
35、in order to decrease fault because of professsional skills deficiency and increase correctness of feasibility study professional skills must be enhanced. Establishing and perfecting of the feasibility study for the vocational education training employees of the system, by related departments groups
36、regularly for feasibility research personnels service training.3.3. Pay Attention to Market Investigation and Market ResearchIn the feasibility study phase, in order to avoid negotiable without city awkward situation and more implicit costs, feasibility study professionals should be ready for market
37、 research and market forecast work.This requires the relevant personnel take related work seriously, guarantee the correctness of market information to reflect a true market prospect. And earnestly analyze the market consumption levels, an accurate grasp of market demand. In order to keep commodity
38、to consumption group and to avoid implicitcosts, feasibility study professionals must earnestly analyze the market consumption levels, grasp market needs and main consumption groups accurately, prepare for marketing positioning.3.4. Compare and Chose Comprehensive Investment ProjectFor a specific pr
39、oject there may be several different investment plan, after accurately study and compare of every investment project, the optimal project can be achieved. Through compare of different comprehensive investment project risks can be reduced, more profits can be achieved. That proves feasibility study p
40、lays a important role in reducing costs and making accurate decisions.3.5. Paying More Attention to Environmental EvaluationPay importance to environmental evaluation, abstractly analyze environmental impact. qualitative analysis must be made thoroughly if quantitative analysis is not suitable. Duri
41、ng site selecting phase, in orderto decrease later costs and implicit costs load capacity of environment around must be taken into account. When considering investment project, we should realize environment impact and economic profit to chose relatively environmental project and reduce implicit cost
42、s.3.6. Deepen Investment Projects Sensitivity and Risk AnalysisIn order to effectively prevent and control the risk, in feasibility study, we should strengthen the sensitivity analysis, pay great attention to digging the potential risk factors, such as investment environment risk, project constructi
43、on risk, etc. And we should pay special attention to unfavorable factors and bad results, for example, implicit cost because of residents unmovement; Implicit cost caused by construction damage and extension of construction limits time limit because of local seasonal natural disaster. Therefore we s
44、hould unify the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis and give priority to quantitative analysis so as to prevent risk purposely and make scientific decisions. If sensibility analysis and risk analysis should be based on scientific data, strategic fault of project can be reduced greatly so
45、as to reduce implicit accuracy.可行性研究對房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目隱形成本的相關(guān)問題分析摘要:據(jù)了解,房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的可行性研究在房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)中起著重要的作用。然而,可行性研究仍然存在很多問題。在本文中,隱性成本這個(gè)概念將推出,這將被用來分析這些問題 . 與此同時(shí),一些有用的戰(zhàn)略將針對這些問題,進(jìn)一步完善房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目可行性研究報(bào)告的真實(shí)性。關(guān)鍵詞:房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的可行性研究報(bào)告; 隱形成本的問題1 介紹可行性研究是決策科學(xué)已用于項(xiàng)目區(qū)的全面調(diào)查和研究,以在建設(shè)目標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上確定基本目標(biāo)是有進(jìn)步的,現(xiàn)實(shí)的,可靠的特點(diǎn),在整個(gè)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)進(jìn)展前。我們我們還需要知道這些是否能償還從金融和經(jīng)濟(jì)的信譽(yù)給
46、一個(gè)很大的幫助。它是真實(shí)的角色,一個(gè)框架來決定投資項(xiàng)目,是關(guān)鍵因素,可以決定這個(gè)項(xiàng)目是否可以投資或不給一些支持性的項(xiàng)目決策。房地產(chǎn)是典型的,巨大的長期融資、相對于其他投資和容易受到不穩(wěn)定的因素。因此,可行性研究對于房地產(chǎn)是非常重要的。然而,目前我們正在越來越關(guān)注顯性成本的可行性研究而忽視隱形成本。隱形成本,相對于顯性成本,他藏在總成本里面,造成企業(yè)決策者錯(cuò)誤的概念。信息的不足, 再加上非市場因素導(dǎo)致總成本直接或間接地保值增值。這個(gè)數(shù)量的該項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益在房地產(chǎn)上,很大程度上取決于隱形成本。2 對隱形成本存在的問題為基礎(chǔ)的可行性研究。近年來,房地產(chǎn)的可行性研究有一個(gè)很大的改進(jìn)。它已成為主要內(nèi)容和
47、方法,逐步使用在項(xiàng)目決策。但是,可行性研究事實(shí)上并不能發(fā)揮在實(shí)際案例中提到的作用。最糟糕的是還開始工作前的沒有進(jìn)行可行性研究。另一個(gè)事件是,可行性研究已經(jīng)完成,但效果不符合要求。存在的主要問題如下:2.1 低素質(zhì)的投資者并沒有對它進(jìn)行更多的關(guān)注直到現(xiàn)在 ,很多投資者并沒有得到一個(gè)明確的方法來實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)品相關(guān)的可行性研究。他們依賴他們自己的希望 ,對于是否建立房地產(chǎn)已經(jīng)做了一個(gè)決定,認(rèn)為可行性研究只是一個(gè)“支付紙”提交貸款機(jī)構(gòu)、投資者和政府。因?yàn)檫M(jìn)行不徹底,只關(guān)注該格式,可行性研究是沒有意義的。因此,“可行性研究”的目標(biāo)是如何從相關(guān)部門和銀行貸款獲得許可,所以數(shù)據(jù)不能用來反映實(shí)際狀況。整個(gè)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目
48、的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益減少了 ,即使失敗了 ,主要是歸因于勞動(dòng)者的態(tài)度,而忽略了可行性研究的重要性。那些被稱為隱形成本與其他因素密切相關(guān),一個(gè)優(yōu)秀的決策者應(yīng)該體現(xiàn)出的品質(zhì)是有決心、有信心、目光長遠(yuǎn)正常等。 當(dāng)一個(gè)最喜歡的投資項(xiàng)目躺在投資者面前時(shí),他一定是有信心和決心盡快做決定,相對于經(jīng)濟(jì)利益是否會(huì)發(fā)生創(chuàng)建隱形成本。此外 ,投資者在投資過程應(yīng)該有遠(yuǎn)見,不在乎在一個(gè)小事件做出錯(cuò)誤的決定的得失。很明顯 ,這個(gè)品質(zhì)是投資者避免隱形成本的一個(gè)非常重要的因素。2.2 建設(shè)項(xiàng)目可行性研究主要完成顧問機(jī)構(gòu)和設(shè)計(jì)者水準(zhǔn)過低。委托投資建設(shè)部,這是可能的。 其精度在很大程度上取決于這些機(jī)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)者質(zhì)量控制的水平。不幸的是,大多數(shù)
49、的設(shè)計(jì)者缺乏實(shí)事求是的態(tài)度。他們用部分已使用的數(shù)據(jù),樂觀的評估市場價(jià)格運(yùn)動(dòng)。他們還沒有開發(fā)詳細(xì)的市場調(diào)查來預(yù)測市場前景;同時(shí), 他們不關(guān)心一些故障,更多的目光放在技術(shù)和產(chǎn)品的優(yōu)勢, 減少投資的成功率。在設(shè)計(jì)者具有低水平的基礎(chǔ)上,在可行性研究的過程中不能用正確的方法和規(guī)范,決策者的一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤的判斷甚至導(dǎo)致整個(gè)項(xiàng)目的消耗過度,失去經(jīng)濟(jì)利益。2.3 分析和預(yù)測的市場不夠完整投資項(xiàng)目的盈利能力不僅取決于可用的各種資源,而且還依賴于現(xiàn)有的和潛在的社會(huì)所需。目前,有沒有更多的目光集中在市場調(diào)查和可行性研究預(yù)測。一個(gè)大的數(shù)據(jù)的數(shù)據(jù)是相關(guān)研究人員的經(jīng)驗(yàn)與社會(huì)關(guān)系。 盡管他們做了一個(gè)調(diào)查和預(yù)測市場趨勢,但是結(jié)果是
50、定性分析多于定量。通過以上方法測量的數(shù)據(jù)無法真正反映市場現(xiàn)狀和前景。它似乎是喜歡有好處,因?yàn)殄e(cuò)誤預(yù)測市場導(dǎo)致投資項(xiàng)目分析所面臨的條件存在故障。那些可以根據(jù)研究者的努力避免。2.4 沒有在每一個(gè)項(xiàng)目中進(jìn)行比較大量的科研人員更關(guān)注單一項(xiàng)目的可行性,忽略綜合項(xiàng)目的可行性研究。在某些情況下,他們也分析一些項(xiàng)目。 但在同一時(shí)間, 一個(gè)特定的項(xiàng)目將比另一個(gè)在表面上被分析的更深入。決策者必須采用他們的愿望值接受該項(xiàng)目,然后,綜合研究變成單一項(xiàng)目研究,這將失去可行性研究的意義。因?yàn)槿狈Ρ容^項(xiàng)目 ,導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)效益過低,相關(guān)的財(cái)務(wù)將固定失去獲得更多利益的機(jī)會(huì),從而在市場上創(chuàng)造更多的隱形成本。2.5 忽視環(huán)境評估的價(jià)
51、值評估顯示的可行性研究報(bào)告,對于當(dāng)前環(huán)境有許多缺點(diǎn)。在某些情況下,有幾個(gè)內(nèi)容和分析在表面上對環(huán)境進(jìn)行了評估,但是因?yàn)闆]有測量周圍附近的項(xiàng)目,這些評估是不正確的。很明顯,這些與我國研制的可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略有矛盾。此外,投資者沒有考慮項(xiàng)目之間的環(huán)境和持續(xù)能力就開始。因此,開發(fā)強(qiáng)度將超過環(huán)境的承載能力,項(xiàng)目將產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染。這將增加項(xiàng)目完成后環(huán)境保護(hù)成本,如控制環(huán)境污染 ,加強(qiáng)綠色等費(fèi)用。在環(huán)境保護(hù)上,需要有一個(gè)嚴(yán)格的環(huán)境評估工作,使用真實(shí)的數(shù)據(jù)反映收入和支出。然而,許多可行性研究忽視了這方面,該項(xiàng)目將把更多的錢放在后期生產(chǎn)和日益增長的無形成本上。2.6 沒有注意靈敏度分析和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目本身具
52、有很高的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn),因?yàn)樵陧?xiàng)目實(shí)施的過程有一些不確定的因素。這些不確定性在投資項(xiàng)目中存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),因此整個(gè)項(xiàng)目的不確定性分析是至關(guān)重要的。如果可行性研究不能對這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確分析,將導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目的額外成本。在實(shí)際工作的可行性研究,分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投入是不足夠的或只停留在定性分析。盡管他們進(jìn)行了一些量化,但是要么是量化方法不合適,要么就是對定量結(jié)果不重視,沒有很好地了解到項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,從而使一些項(xiàng)目在具體實(shí)施之前出現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素變化導(dǎo)致成本增加 ,經(jīng)濟(jì)效益大幅下降,導(dǎo)致隱性成本的產(chǎn)生。3 可行性研究的對策3.1 加強(qiáng)決策者的思想教育和素質(zhì)教育為了使可行性研究進(jìn)展順利,決策者應(yīng)該充分認(rèn)識到教育的重要性和
53、功能的可行性研究。識別和明確的意識形態(tài)卡爾可行性研究的效果,所以 ,它可以從根本保證可行性研究順利工作。此外,投資者必須具有必要的教育和改善他們自己的專業(yè)技能,所以 ,當(dāng)他們能果斷正確的決策,就能減少隱性成本從而增加利潤。3.2 提高設(shè)計(jì)者的能力培訓(xùn)機(jī)構(gòu)必須建立和完善可行性研究專業(yè),相關(guān)部門應(yīng)定期組織專業(yè)培訓(xùn)。職業(yè)道德教育應(yīng)是必要的,要讓專業(yè)人士認(rèn)識可行性研究的重要性;同時(shí),由于技能不足,為了減少故障,提高可行性研究的正確性,必須加強(qiáng)專業(yè)技能的學(xué)習(xí)。建立和完善的可行性研究,為員工提供系統(tǒng)的職業(yè)教育培訓(xùn),通過相關(guān)部門組織定期為可行性研究人員進(jìn)行業(yè)務(wù)培訓(xùn)。3.3 重視市場調(diào)查和市場研究在可行性研究
54、階段 ,為了避免“沒有可轉(zhuǎn)讓城市”的尷尬局面 ,更隱含成本,可行性研究專業(yè)人員應(yīng)該做好迎接市場調(diào)研和市場預(yù)測工作。 這需要相關(guān)人員認(rèn)真采取相關(guān)工作, 保證市場信息的正確性,以反映一個(gè)真正的市場前景。并認(rèn)真分析市場消費(fèi)水平,準(zhǔn)確把握市場需求。為了保持商品消費(fèi)群體,避免隱性成本,可行性研究專業(yè)人員必須認(rèn)真分析市場消費(fèi)水平,把握市場需求,把握主要消費(fèi)群體,為市場準(zhǔn)確定位。3.4 比較和選擇全面的投資項(xiàng)目對于一個(gè)特定的項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)有幾種不同的投資計(jì)劃,可以達(dá)到最優(yōu)。通過比較不同的投資項(xiàng)目,綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)降低準(zhǔn)確地研究和比較每一個(gè)投資項(xiàng)目之后,,可以獲得更多的利潤。這證明了可行性研項(xiàng)目究在降低成本,進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確的決策中起著重要的作用。3.5 更多的關(guān)注環(huán)境評價(jià)重視環(huán)境評價(jià), 抽象地分析環(huán)境影響。 如果定量分析是不合適的, 定性分析必須徹底。 在選擇階段為了降低成本和隱性成本,所以對于周圍環(huán)境負(fù)荷能力必須加以
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