2016年科技、傳媒和電信行業(yè)預(yù)測

2016年科技、傳媒和電信行業(yè)預(yù)測TECHNOLOGY,MEDIATELECOMMUNICATIONSPREDICTIONS2016CONTENTSFOREWORD1TECHNOLOGY3WOMENINITJOBSITISABOUTEDUCATION,BUTITISALSOABOUTMORETHANJUSTEDUCATION4TRAILINGMILLENNIALSARETHEPROPC,NOTTHEPOSTPC,GENERATION8TOUCHCOMMERCETHEMOBILEONLINECHECKOUTGETSANEXPRESSLANE12GRAPHENERESEARCHNOW,REAPNEXTDECADE14COGNITIVETECHNOLOGIESENHANCEENTERPRISESOFTWARE17MEDIA21VIRTUALREALITYABILLIONDOLLARNICHE22MOBILEGAMESLEADING,BUTLESSLUCRATIVE26MOBILEADBLOCKERSSAVEDBYTHEAPP28THEAWARDFORSTABLEBOXOFFICEREVENUESINTHEFACEOFDIGITALMEDIAGOESTO30USTVEROSION,NOTIMPLOSION35EUROPEANFOOTBALLSCORES30BILLION39ESPORTSBIGGERANDSMALLERTHANYOUTHINK42TELECOMMUNICATIONS45THEDAWNOFTHEGIGABITINTERNETAGEEVERYBITCOUNTS46USEDSMARTPHONESTHE17BILLIONMARKETYOUMAYNEVERHAVEHEARDOF50THERISEOFTHEDATAEXCLUSIVE53VOLTE/VOWIFICAPACITY,REACHANDCAPABILITY57PHOTOSHARINGTRILLIONSANDRISING59ENDNOTES62RECENTDELOITTETHOUGHTLEADERSHIP78CONTACTSATDELOITTETOUCHETOHMATSULIMITEDDTTLANDITSMEMBERFIRMS79WELCOMETOTHEFIFTEENTHEDITIONOFPREDICTIONSFORTHETECHNOLOGY,MEDIAANDTELECOMMUNICATIONSTMTSECTORSTHELAST15YEARSHAVEBEENAGOLDENERAFORINNOVATIONMULTIPLETMTPRODUCTSANDSERVICESTHATWENOWTAKEFORGRANTEDWERENICHEORNONEXISTENTBACKTHENIN2002,HOMESTYPICALLYHADDIALUPINTERNETACCESS,BOXYTELEVISIONSETS,WIREDSPEAKERS,STANDALONEDIGITALCAMERAS,SHOPPINGCATALOGUESANDFIXEDLINETELEPHONESPHOTOSWERESTOREDINALBUMSANDSHELVESBULGEDWITHCDSANDDVDSLPSHADBEENBANISHEDTOTHEATTICORSOLDOFFCANDYBARSHAPEDMOBILEPHONESHADMONOCHROMESCREENSANDWEREPREDOMINANTLYUSEDTOMAKECALLSANDEXCHANGETEXTMESSAGESINSTANTMESSAGING,EMAIL,ECOMMERCE,MAPS,SEARCHENGINES,PHOTOS,VIDEOSANDOTHERONLINESERVICESTHATARENOWROUTINELYACCESSEDVIASMARTPHONESWEREPREDOMINANTLYPCBASEDATTHESTARTOF20023GNETWORKSHADONLYJUSTLAUNCHEDCOMMERCIALLY,OFFERINGSPEEDSOFAFEWHUNDREDKILOBITSPERSECONDASMOSTHOMESSTILLHADDIALUPINTERNET,ITWASFASTERFORMOSTPEOPLETOVISITAVIDEORENTALSTORE,RETURNHOME,WATCHTHEFILM,ANDTHENRETURNITRATHERTHANTOWAITFORAFILETODOWNLOADOVERTHELAST15YEARS,CONNECTIVITYHASBECOMESTEADILYFASTER,ENABLINGMANYNEWCATEGORIESOFSERVICETOBECOMEMAINSTREAM,INCLUDINGANUMBEROFCURRENTSTAPLEAPPLICATIONSSEARCHENGINES,SOCIALNETWORKS,VIDEOONDEMAND,EANDMCOMMERCE,APPSTORESANDONLINEVIDEOGAMESTHESENEWSERVICESHAVEDRIVENTHEGROWINGAPPEALOFDIGITALDEVICESSMARTPHONESANDTABLETSBEINGTHETWOSTANDOUTDEVICESTOHAVEEMERGEDOVERTHEPERIODTHESENEWDEVICETYPESHAVETENDEDTOCOMPLEMENTRATHERTHANUSURPEXISTINGPRODUCTSWHILETHEPAST15YEARSHASWITNESSEDSTARTLINGCHANGE,ITHASALSOSEENREMARKABLECONTINUITYBROADCASTTELEVISION,RADIO,CINEMA,LIVEENTERTAINMENT,PRINTEDBOOKSANDINPERSONMEETINGSREMAINPOPULARDESPITEMULTIPLEDIGITALLYENABLEDALTERNATIVES2016PROMISESTOBEYETANOTHEREXCITINGYEARFORTHETMTSECTORINTHISYEARSEDITIONWELOOKATAFASCINATINGARRAYOFTRENDS,EACHDEVELOPINGATITSOWNMOMENTUMWELOOKFORWARDTOTHEPROGRESSOFCOGNITIVETECHNOLOGIESINENTERPRISESOFTWARE,TONEWAPPROACHESINACCELERATINGMOBILECOMMERCECHECKOUT,ANDTOTHEPROGRESSIONOFGRAPHENEWEHIGHLIGHTTHECONTINUINGSTRENGTHOFDEMANDFORTHEPCESPECIALLYAMONGMILLENNIALSWEWELCOMETHECOMMERCIALLAUNCHOFVIRTUALREALITY,ANDNOTETHECONTINUEDGROWTHOFBOTHPREMIUMSPORTSWITHAFOCUSONFOOTBALLINEUROPE,ASWELLASTHEEMERGINGESPORTSSECTORWEEXPECTMOBILESHOULDBECOMETHEBIGGESTGAMESPLATFORMIN2016,OVERTAKINGCONSOLEANDPCWEOBSERVETHATTHEKEYTRADITIONALMEDIAOFTELEVISIONANDCINEMASHOULDCONTINUETOHOLDTHEIROWN,EVENIFNOTGROWINGWEEXPLORETHECURRENTANDNEARTERMIMPACTOFADBLOCKERSONMOBILEADVERTISINGREVENUESWEDISCUSSKEYDRIVERSOFBANDWIDTHDEMANDINCLUDINGTHEEMERGENCEOFGIGABITTOTHEHOME,TRENDSINPHOTOSHARINGANDACONTINUEDRISEINDATAEXCLUSIVECOMMUNICATORS,ASWELLASTHEPOTENTIALIMPACTOFTHETAKEUPOFNETWORKMANAGEDVOICEOVERDATASERVICESFOREWORD1TECHNOLOGY,MEDIATELECOMMUNICATIONSPREDICTIONS2016FINALLY,WEEXPECTTHEUSEDSMARTPHONEMARKETTOSURPASS17BILLIONINTRADEINVALUE,MAKINGITASIGNIFICANTCONSUMERDEVICEMARKETINITSOWNRIGHTWEHOPETHATYOUFINDTHISYEARSSETOFPREDICTIONSANINTERESTINGREADANDTHATTHEYBRINGAUSEFULDYNAMICTOYOURDISCUSSIONSPAULSALLOMIPAULLEEGLOBALTECHNOLOGY,MEDIATELECOMMUNICATIONSPARTNER,HEADOFGLOBALTMTRESEARCHTMTINDUSTRYLEADERDELOITTETOUCHETOHMATSULIMITEDDELOITTETOUCHETOHMATSULIMITED2WOMENINITJOBSITISABOUTEDUCATION,BUTITISALSOABOUTMORETHANJUSTEDUCATION4TRAILINGMILLENNIALSARETHEPROPC,NOTTHEPOSTPC,GENERATION8TOUCHCOMMERCETHEMOBILEONLINECHECKOUTGETSANEXPRESSLANE12GRAPHENERESEARCHNOW,REAPNEXTDECADE14COGNITIVETECHNOLOGIESENHANCEENTERPRISESOFTWARE17TECHNOLOGY3TECHNOLOGY,MEDIATELECOMMUNICATIONSPREDICTIONS2016051015202530UKCANADASWEDENUSFIGURE1WOMENASPERCENTAGEOFTOTALITWORKFORCEBYCOUNTRYFORUS,SWEDEN,CANADAANDUK24222218SOURCETHESTATISTICSFORTHECHARTABOVEWEREOBTAINEDFROMGOVERNMENTWEBSITESORDOCUMENTSTHEUSDATAISFOR2014,SWEDENDATAISFOR2013,CANADADATAIS2011ANDUKDATAISFORAPRILJUNE2015SEEENDNOTESFORINFORMATIONONSOURCESDELOITTEGLOBALPREDICTSTHATBYEND2016FEWERTHAN25PERCENTOFINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGYITJOBS1INDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESWILLBEHELDBYWOMEN,IEWOMENWORKINGINITROLESSEEFIGURE12THATFIGUREISABOUTTHESAMEAS2015,ANDMAYEVENBEDOWNLACKOFGENDERDIVERSITYINITISBOTHASOCIALANDECONOMICISSUEGLOBALCOSTSMAYBEINTHETENSOFBILLIONSOFDOLLARSACCORDINGTOONESTUDY,THEGENDERGAPINITCOSTSTHEUKALONEABOUT4BILLIONANNUALLY3GIVENTHATCOST,GENDERPARITYROUGHLY50PERCENTWOMENINITJOBSSEEMSAREASONABLEGOALOVERTHELONGTERMWHYARETHE2016NUMBERSLESSTHANHALFTHATGOAL,ANDWHYARENTTHEYIMPROVINGFASTERGENDERIMBALANCEINITHASBEENRECOGNIZEDASANISSUESINCEATLEAST20054ONEMIGHTHAVEEXPECTEDSOMEIMPROVEMENTSINCETHEN,ANDPERHAPSEVENFASTERCHANGESINCE2010,WHENTHEREWASASURGEINARTICLESABOUTWOMENINTECHNOLOGYJOBS5THATHASNOTBEENTHECASEFOREXAMPLE,INTHEEIGHTYEARSBETWEEN2005AND2013THEPERCENTAGEOFWOMENINITJOBSINSWEDENFELLFROM23PERCENTTO22PERCENTALTHOUGHTHEPERCENTAGEOFWOMENINSENIORITROLESDIDRISEFROM16TO21PERCENTINTHEUS,WHICHHASFIVEMILLIONITJOBS,THERATIOOFFEMALEITWORKERSALSOFELLFROM25TO24PERCENTFROM2010TO20146,WITHTHEPROPORTIONOFWOMENINMORESENIORROLESDECLININGTHREEPERCENTAGEPOINTSTO27PERCENTIN2014INTHEUK,WITH12MILLIONITPOSTS,THEPERCENTAGEOFWOMENINITJOBSINCREASEDFROM17PERCENTTO18PERCENT201020157INEACHMARKET,THETOTALNUMBEROFITJOBSINCREASEDBYOVER20PERCENTINTHELASTFIVEYEARSTHEEDUCATIONPIPELINENOTEVERYCURRENTITWORKERHASANEDUCATIONALBACKGROUNDINCOMPUTERSCIENCEOROTHERSIMILARFIELDBUTINTHOSEFIELDSOFSTUDY,ANDESPECIALLYINCOMPUTERSCIENCE,THEREARECLEARPROBLEMSWITHGENDERDIVERSITYINTHEEDUCATIONALPIPELINEONLY18PERCENTOFUSUNIVERSITYCOMPUTERSCIENCECSGRADUATESIN2013WEREWOMEN8ANDTHATWASDOWNFROM1985,WHEN37PERCENTOFGRADUATESWEREWOMENUKFIGURESAREVERYSIMILARINTHE2013/14EDUCATIONALYEAR,ONLY171PERCENTOFCOMPUTERSCIENCESTUDENTSWEREWOMEN9THATISMUCHLOWERTHANOVERALLFEMALEPARTICIPATIONINHIGHEREDUCATIONINTHEUKOF56PERCENT,ANDACTUALLYDOWNVERYSLIGHTLYFROM174PERCENTINTHE2012/13EDUCATIONALYEAR10THEPERCENTAGEOFWOMENENROLLEDINMATHEMATICS,COMPUTERANDINFORMATIONSCIENCESATUNIVERSITIESANDCOLLEGESINCANADAISHIGHER,AT25PERCENTIN201411,BUTTHATISDOWNTWOPERCENTSINCE2009,WHENITWASOVER27PERCENT12BUTATTHEBESTKNOWNCOMPUTERSCIENCESCHOOLINTHECOUNTRY,THEUNIVERSITYOFWATERLOO,WOMENMADEUPONLY13PERCENTOF2010ENROLLMENTINCOMPUTERSCIENCE,DOWNFROM33PERCENTINTHELATE1980SALTHOUGHTHEYNOWHAVEANUMBEROFPROGRAMSTOGETMOREWOMENTOENROLL,ANDTORETAINTHEMONCETHEYAREINTHEPROGRAM13INSWEDENASOF2010,WOMENWERE24PERCENTOFCOMPUTERSCIENCEGRADUATES14,DOWNFROM30PERCENTIN200015WOMENINITJOBSITISABOUTEDUCATION,BUTITISALSOABOUTMORETHANJUSTEDUCATION4BUTTHEGENDERGAPINTHEEDUCATIONALPIPELINEPRECEDESUNIVERSITYTERTIARYEDUCATIONONLY18PERCENTOFUSSTUDENTSTAKINGTHEADVANCEDPLACEMENTEXAMFORCOMPUTERSCIENCEIN2013WEREWOMEN16ONCEAGAIN,UKDATAISROUGHLYSIMILARA2012SURVEYSHOWEDTHATONLY17PERCENTOFGIRLSHADLEARNEDANYCOMPUTERCODINGINSCHOOL,ABOUTHALFTHELEVELOFTHE33PERCENTOFBOYSWHOHADCODED17ANDSOMEARGUETHATGIRLSAREOFTENSTEEREDAWAYFROMSCIENCEANDMATHCOURSESINPRIMARYSCHOOL18OTHEREXPERTSGOEARLIERSTILL,STRESSINGTHEROLEPARENTSNEEDTOTAKEINENCOURAGINGGIRLSYOUNGERTHANSCHOOLAGETOBEINTERESTEDINSCIENCEANDTECHNOLOGY19CHALLENGESBEYONDTHEEDUCATIONPIPELINERECRUITINGACCORDINGTOA2014STUDYAMONGUKFIRMS,HALFOFALLCOMPANIESHIRINGITWORKERSSTATEDTHATONLYONEINTWENTYJOBAPPLICANTSWEREWOMEN20GENDERNEUTRALJOBDESCRIPTIONSAREANIMPORTANTFIRSTSTEP,BUTMAYNOTBESUFFICIENT,SINCETHEVARIOUSALGORITHMSDRIVINGONLINERECRUITINGADVERTISEMENTSMAYMEANWOMENDONOTSEETHEJOBPLACEMENTADS21INSEVERALSTUDIES,RESEARCHERSFOUNDTHATTHESOFTWARESHOWINGADSFORCERTAINSENIORJOBSTARGETEDUSERSTAGGEDASMENNEARLYSIXTIMESASOFTENASUSERSLABELEDASWOMENHIRINGHIRINGMOREFEMALERECRUITERSMAYHELP,BUTWILLLIKELYBEANINSUFFICIENTSTEPVARIOUSSTUDIESFROMMULTIPLECOUNTRIESSHOWTHATBOTHMENANDWOMENARETWICEASLIKELYTOHIREAMANFORANITJOBASANEQUALLYQUALIFIEDWOMAN22THATMAYNOTNECESSARILYBECONSCIOUSSEXISTBEHAVIORTHEREAPPEARSTOBEANUMBEROFUNCONSCIOUSBIASESATWORKTHATPROMPTEVENFEMALERECRUITERSTOCHOOSEMALECANDIDATESOVEREQUALLYQUALIFIEDWOMENTHEREAREINITIATIVESTOHELPMAKEPEOPLEAWAREOFTHEIRBIASES23THEPROCESSISCALLEDUNBIASINGBUTTRAININGANDEDUCATIONMAYONLYPARTIALLYOFFSETTHEMFURTHER,MENANDWOMENINITWRITETHEIRCVSINSTYLESTHATVARYBYGENDER,ANDTHOSESTYLISTICDIFFERENCESMAYBEMAKINGRECRUITERSLESSLIKELYTOHIREWOMEN24RETAININGWOMENINITROLESARE45PERCENTMORELIKELYTHANMENTOLEAVEINTHEIRFIRSTYEAR,ACCORDINGTOA2014USSTUDY25THESTUDYFOUNDTHATRETENTIONWASAPROBLEMAFTERTHEFIRSTYEARASWELLONEINFIVEWOMENWITHASTEMDEGREEISOUTOFTHELABORFORCE,COMPAREDTOONLYONEIN10MENWITHASTEMEDUCATION26ISSUESTHATMAYBECONTRIBUTINGTOTHISLACKOFRETENTIONINCLUDEPAYANDPROMOTIONSEEBELOWAHOSTILEORSEXISTBROGRAMMERCULTURECANALSOBEANISSUEINONESTUDY,27PERCENTOFWOMENCITEDDISCOMFORTWITHTHEIRWORKENVIRONMENT,EITHEROVERTORIMPLICITDISCRIMINATION,ASAFACTORINWHYTHEYLEFTTHEIRITJOB27FURTHER,WORKPLACEPOLICIESNOTSUITEDTOWOMEN,WHETHERMARATHONCODINGSESSIONS,EXPECTATIONSAROUNDNOTHAVINGCHILDREN62PERCENTOFFEMALEITWORKERSDONTHAVECHILDREN,COMPAREDTO57PERCENTOFMEN28ORLACKOFCHILDCAREMAYALLPLAYAROLEPAYINGANDPROMOTINGAUSFEMALEWEBDEVELOPERMAKES79CENTSTOTHEDOLLARMENMAKEFORTHESAMEJOB29ANDWHILEFEMALECOMPUTERANDINFORMATIONSYSTEMSMANAGERSHAVEANARROWERGAPOF87CENTSTOTHEDOLLAR,APAYDIFFERENCEISSTILLPREVALENT30THESINGLELARGESTCATEGORYOFITWORKERSINTHEUSISSOFTWAREDEVELOPERS,APPLICATIONSANDSYSTEMSSOFTWAREATOVERONEINFOUROFALLITWORKERSTHEPAYGAPFORTHATGROUPIS84CENTSTOTHEDOLLAR31INTHEUSAQUARTEROFWOMENWITHITROLESFEELSTALLEDINTHEIRCAREERSININDIATHEPROPORTIONISMUCHHIGHER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