上市公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值分析外文翻譯胡兵).doc

寧寧波大紅鷹學(xué)院畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯所在學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院專 業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)管理班 級(jí)11財(cái)管303班學(xué) 號(hào)1131061111姓 名胡兵指導(dǎo)教師任正2014年11月01日譯文：上市公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值分析一、 關(guān)于內(nèi)在價(jià)值 隨著中國資本市場的發(fā)展，中國股市將逐步走向成熟，價(jià)值投資將在未來中國股市中占主導(dǎo)地位，證券市場的價(jià)值投資就是當(dāng)證券的市場價(jià)格低于它的內(nèi)在價(jià)值時(shí)買入，并長期持有或當(dāng)證券的市場價(jià)格高于它的內(nèi)在價(jià)值一定程度時(shí)賣出。因此，對(duì)于中國股市的價(jià)值投資而言首要問題是確定上市公司股票的內(nèi)在價(jià)值。同時(shí)為了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資，企業(yè)并購和資產(chǎn)重組等資本運(yùn)作的需要，迫切需要適合中國公司的可操作性強(qiáng)的價(jià)值評(píng)估體系。本杰明.格雷厄姆在證券分析這本書中是這樣描寫內(nèi)在價(jià)值這個(gè)概念的總結(jié)性地概括： 1、內(nèi)在價(jià)值是無法確定具體數(shù)值的，難以把握的概念。 2、內(nèi)在價(jià)值可根據(jù)公司歷史收益數(shù)據(jù)來推算，但只可做參考。因?yàn)閺臍v史收益數(shù)據(jù)是無法估算出不確定的未來收益的。 3、雖然無法得出內(nèi)在價(jià)值的精確數(shù)字，但內(nèi)在價(jià)值可以用一個(gè)近似值范圍來表達(dá)并用它判斷股價(jià)被高估或低估。 4 、市場價(jià)格經(jīng)常偏離證券的實(shí)際價(jià)值。 5、當(dāng)市場價(jià)格偏離證券的實(shí)際價(jià)值時(shí)，市場中會(huì)出現(xiàn)自我糾正的趨勢。但對(duì)某些證券價(jià)值的高估和低估經(jīng)常會(huì)持續(xù)極長的一段時(shí)間。國內(nèi)外評(píng)估公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值的主要方法有：(一)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值基礎(chǔ)法 它是通過對(duì)公司資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行估價(jià)的方式來評(píng)估公司的價(jià)值。目前國際上通行的資產(chǎn)估價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)主要有 賬面價(jià)值 重置成本法和清算價(jià)值等。 1、賬面價(jià)值法 賬面價(jià)值法是一種基于會(huì)計(jì)理論的方法 根據(jù)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表得出凈資產(chǎn)并進(jìn)行適當(dāng)調(diào)整 但結(jié)果可能不代表盈利能力，特點(diǎn)是簡便但不準(zhǔn)確。2 、重置成本法 重置成本法是指以目前的價(jià)格水平重新建造一個(gè)與被評(píng)估資產(chǎn)完全相同或類似的資產(chǎn)的成本 特點(diǎn)是立足于現(xiàn)在時(shí)點(diǎn)的資產(chǎn)價(jià)值 未考慮未來資產(chǎn)的收益情況。 3 、清算價(jià)值法 清算價(jià)值法是基于公司的總資產(chǎn)在市場變現(xiàn)后減去總負(fù)債的價(jià)值，特點(diǎn)是只考慮資產(chǎn)價(jià)值而沒有考慮機(jī)構(gòu)組織的無形資產(chǎn)和商譽(yù)（goodwill）適合于破產(chǎn)企業(yè)。(二)現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)法 現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)法的基石是現(xiàn)值規(guī)律。任何資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值等于其預(yù)期未來全部現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值總和?，F(xiàn)金流量因所估價(jià)資產(chǎn)的不同而各異。對(duì)股票而言，現(xiàn)金流是紅利。對(duì)債券而言，現(xiàn)金流是利息和本金。對(duì)于一個(gè)實(shí)際項(xiàng)目而言，現(xiàn)金流是稅后凈現(xiàn)金流。貼現(xiàn)率將取決于所預(yù)測的現(xiàn)金流的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度，資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越高，貼現(xiàn)率就越高。反之，資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越低，貼現(xiàn)率就越低。根據(jù)現(xiàn)金流的來源不同，用于評(píng)估公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值的主要有以下三種：1、 股利貼現(xiàn)法 股利貼現(xiàn)法也就是將公司未來預(yù)期股利貼現(xiàn)公司目前的價(jià)值。股利法從理論上能準(zhǔn)確地計(jì)算出資產(chǎn)的真實(shí)價(jià)值，但在實(shí)際中很難操作。因?yàn)榇蟛糠制髽I(yè)派發(fā)股利是不定期和不定量的，部分企業(yè)在其成長期根就不發(fā)股利，所以很難預(yù)測其股利派發(fā)情況并計(jì)算其價(jià)值。 2、 公司自由現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)法 公司自由現(xiàn)金流是指在支付了經(jīng)營費(fèi)用和所得稅后，向包括債權(quán)人在內(nèi)的所有公司權(quán)利要求者支付現(xiàn)金之前的全部現(xiàn)金流。 3 、股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)法 股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流是指公司在履行了償還債務(wù)、彌補(bǔ)資本性支出、增加營運(yùn)資本等各種財(cái)務(wù)上的義務(wù)后所剩的那部分現(xiàn)金流。 從理論上講對(duì)，有收益的資產(chǎn)，現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)法最能準(zhǔn)確地計(jì)算出資產(chǎn)的真實(shí)價(jià)值，現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)法被絕大多數(shù)專業(yè)文獻(xiàn)認(rèn)為是最科學(xué)，最成熟的公司評(píng)估方法。企業(yè)的價(jià)值等于該企業(yè)以適當(dāng)?shù)馁N現(xiàn)率所貼現(xiàn)的預(yù)期現(xiàn)金流量現(xiàn)值，所以這種方法要對(duì)公司資產(chǎn)未來的現(xiàn)金流量進(jìn)行估計(jì)，并要選擇合理的貼現(xiàn)率，特點(diǎn)是難度較大，操作比較復(fù)雜。（三 ）市盈率法 如果能估計(jì)出目標(biāo)公司未來可持續(xù)收益，而且股票市場存在一個(gè)平均的行業(yè)市盈率，用公司的當(dāng)年稅后利潤乘以行業(yè)平均市盈率就可比較簡單地計(jì)算出公司大致的價(jià)值，市盈率法操作性強(qiáng)，但其隱含的前提是當(dāng)?shù)氐墓善笔袌鍪且粋€(gè)強(qiáng)式效率市場，即公司的市場價(jià)值等于內(nèi)在價(jià)值，否則其計(jì)算結(jié)果與公司的實(shí)際內(nèi)在價(jià)值將可能產(chǎn)生極大的誤差。（四 ）其他方法 有可比交易法、可比公司法、分散加總估價(jià)法、目標(biāo)公司股價(jià)歷史分析法、M&A乘數(shù)法、杠桿收購法、杠桿資本調(diào)整法和總收入乘數(shù)法等。通常是投資銀行在企業(yè)兼并，收購和重組中使用的方法。 （五 ）經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值（EVA）貼現(xiàn)法 經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值最基本的形式就是公司的剩余收入。也就是說，如果投資人得到的投資回報(bào)等于投資人投資的期望收益，公司的剩余收入等于零，該項(xiàng)投資的價(jià)值就等于該項(xiàng)投資的投資額。如果公司產(chǎn)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值，將公司未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值折現(xiàn)后再加上公司的投資總額就應(yīng)該等于公司的內(nèi)在價(jià)值。二、內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理評(píng)價(jià)內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理，融入各種財(cái)務(wù)和管理等理論，已形成較完備的原理體系，并已經(jīng)在實(shí)務(wù)操作中深入人心，取得了較好的效果。而巴菲特則將內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理運(yùn)用和深化到了極致，在現(xiàn)實(shí)投資世界里取得了巨大成功。但內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理還存在一些缺陷，需要進(jìn)一步改進(jìn)。從方法層面來看，內(nèi)在價(jià)值傳統(tǒng)分析原理的主要缺陷就是沒有形成一個(gè)統(tǒng)一分析框架：(1)定性分析較系統(tǒng)，但缺乏一個(gè)統(tǒng)一、簡單而嚴(yán)密的因果分析框架。(2)定量分析只分析財(cái)務(wù)后果，沒有追溯至導(dǎo)致該結(jié)果的原因。(3)定性與定量分析之間沒有建立應(yīng)有的因果聯(lián)系，沒有統(tǒng)一的框架將定性分析和定量分析融于一體。(4)定性分析、定量分析和價(jià)值估算之間缺乏緊密的因果邏輯聯(lián)系。這篇文章對(duì)于上市公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值的分析還只是初步的，在未來我們可以考慮對(duì)更多不同行業(yè)的公司進(jìn)行案例研究，以完善內(nèi)在價(jià)值因果分析原理和程序。因?yàn)椴煌袠I(yè)的公司存在不同的行業(yè)特點(diǎn)和公司特點(diǎn)，應(yīng)用研究可以起到較好的反饋效果?，F(xiàn)有的程序只是個(gè)初步的方案，它需要大量的案例研究來加以修正。例如：我們?cè)趧?dòng)因的選取上，只選擇了宏觀、行業(yè)及企業(yè)動(dòng)因的分類法。在后續(xù)的研究中，我們可以針對(duì)分析的需要，選取不同的動(dòng)因分類，構(gòu)建不同的內(nèi)在價(jià)值因果分析表。本文在分析案例時(shí)，主要根據(jù)企業(yè)實(shí)際采用了利潤指標(biāo)，在后續(xù)的研究中，可以針對(duì)不同行業(yè)選擇不同的特殊現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)，這有賴于分析者對(duì)于該行業(yè)的深入理解。原文：The intrinsic value of the listed companies is analyzedFirst, about the intrinsic value. Along with the development of Chinas capital market, Chinas stock market will be gradually maturing, the value investment will account for the dominant position in Chinas stock market in the future, the value of the securities market is when the market price of the securities investment below its intrinsic value when buying, and hold for a long time or when the stock market price is higher than its intrinsic value to a certain extent when selling. Therefore, for the value of Chinas stock market investment primary problem is to determine the intrinsic value of the shares of listed companies. To risk investment at the same time, the needs of the enterprise merger and reorganization of assets in the capital operation, the urgent need for Chinas strong operability of value evaluation system of the company. Benjamin graham in securities analysis in the book are intrinsic value is summarized in the summary of the concept:1, the intrinsic value is unable to determine the specific numerical, difficult to grasp the concept. 2, intrinsic value according to the company history data to calculate returns, but can only be used for your reference. Because earnings figures from history is unable to estimate the uncertainty of future earnings. 3, although cant get an accurate number of the intrinsic value, but the intrinsic value can express and use it in a range of approximation to determine share price is overvalued or undervalued. 4, often deviate from the stock market price of real value. 5, when the real value of the market price deviating from the securities market will be the trend of self correcting. But for some overvalued or undervalued securities value often lasts for very long period of time.Second, to assess the intrinsic value of the companys main methods at home and abroad are: (a) asset value based method It is the way through the study of the valuation of the companys assets to evaluate the value of the company. Current international book value of assets valuation standards are on the replacement cost method and the liquidation value, etc. 1, book value method Based on the theory of the accounting book value method is a kind of method According to the balance sheet net assets and make appropriate adjustments But the result may not represent the profitability, the characteristic is easy but not accurate. 2, the replacement cost methodReplacement cost method refers to the current price level to build a evaluation, and to be identical or similar assets cost characteristic is now based on the point value of the assets Did not think of the future asset returns. 3, the liquidation value Liquidation value method is based on the companys total assets minus the value of total liabilities, after market to liquidate characteristic is only considered assets value without considering the organizations intangible assets and goodwill (goodwill) is suitable for the bankrupt enterprise.(2) cash flow (DCF) method The cornerstone of discounted cash flow method is present value rule. The value of any asset is equal to the total present value of all cash flows in the future. Cash flow for the assets valuation varies. For stock, cash flow is dividends. For bonds, cash flow is the interest and principal. For a practical project, cash flow is the after-tax net cash flows. The discount rate will depend on the degree of risk of the cash flow forecast, the higher risk assets, the higher the discount rate. On the contrary, the lower the risk assets, the lower the discount rate. Depending on the source of the cash flow, can be used to assess the intrinsic value of the company mainly has the following three: 1, the dividend discount method Dividend discount method and the companys future is expected dividend discount the value of the company now. Dividend method theoretically can accurately calculate the real value of the assets, but in practice it is difficult to operate. Because most corporate dividend distribution is irregular and not quantitative, some enterprises in its root is not hair dividends for a long time, so it is difficult to predict its dividend payments and calculate its value. 2, corporate free cash flow discount method Free cash flow is refers to the company after pay for business expenses and income tax, to all companies, including creditors rights requirement to pay cash before all of the cash flow. 3, equity free cash flow discount method Free cash flow of equity is to point to in the performance of the company to repay the debt, compensate for capital expenditure, increase working capital and other financial obligations after left that part of the cash flow. Theoretically to have earnings assets, cash flow (DCF) method can accurately calculate the most the real value of the assets, cash flow (DCF) method is considered to be the most scientific, most professional literature method to estimate the most mature company.Equal to the value of the enterprise to present value of expected future cash flows discounted by the appropriate discount rate, so this kind of method to estimate the future cash flow of the asset to the company, and to choose the reasonable discount rate, features is difficult, and complicated operation.(3) p/e ratio method If we can estimate the target companys future sustainable yield, and there is a stock market average p/e ratio of industry, with the companys after-tax profit multiplied by the industry average p/e ratio can be relatively simple to calculate the value of company is roughly, p/e ratio method and feasible, but the underlying premise is that the local stock market is a strong form efficiency market, the companys market value is equal to the intrinsic value, otherwise the calculation results with the companys actual intrinsic value will probably have a great error. (4) other methods Disperse aggregation have comparable transactions, comparable companies, valuation method, the target companys stock price history analysis, M&A multiplier, leveraged buyouts, leveraged capital adjustment method and income multiplier method, etc. Usually investment Banks in enterprise merger, acquisition and reorganization method. (5) economic value added (EVA) discount Economic value added of the most basic form is surplus income of the company. In other words, if investors get the expected return on investment is equal to the investors investment benefit, the companys residual income is equal to zero, the investment is equal to the value of the investment. If the company to produce economic value added, will be the future of the company after discounting Eva plus the companys total investment should be equal to the intrinsic value of the company.Three, the intrinsic value of traditional analysis principle of evaluation Intrinsic value traditional analysis principle, blend in a variety of financial and management theory, has formed a relatively complete theory system, and has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people in the practice, good results have been achieved. Mr Buffett has applied intrinsic value traditional analysis principle and deepen to perfection, investment in the real world has been a huge success. But the inherent value of traditional analysis principle also has some defects, need to be further improved. From the method level, intrinsic value is the main defect of traditional analysis principle did not form a unified analysis framework: (1) the qualitative analysis of the system, but the lack of a unified, simple and strict causal analysis framework. (2) quantitative analysis only financial consequences, not back to the cause of the results. (3) there is no established between qualitative and quantitative analysis of causal relationship, no unified framework will combine qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. (4) the qualitative analysis, quantitative