摩根斯坦利2010年一季度全球金屬行業(yè)報告.doc

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C HResearchGlobalMarch 31, 20XXGlobal Metals Playbook 2Q10Navigating liquidity withdrawal, policy tightening and a stronger US dollar Cyclical growth trends are still supportive for modities as unprecedented fiscal and monetary easing in 20XX is generating a two speed growth environment in 20XX led by emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America. We see policy initiatives to scale back liquidity or confront inflation either as wele signs of policy normalisation or prudent actions designed to sustain growth and economic development Base metals outlook: We expect continued differentiation in relative performance in base metals in 20XX, with more robust fundamentals in copper and nickel expected to deliver strong YoY price gains relative to aluminium and zinc. Precious metals outlook: A strengthening US dollar is a significant headwind for gold and silver investment demand, but a recovery in global automotive production is a strong positive for the platinum group metals. Bulk modity outlook: A move to more frequent pricing mechanisms for steel-making raw materials is driving a sharp uplift in prices of iron ore and metallurgical coal, with upside risks to consensus expectations on 20XX average price outes.Global Metals and Mining TeamForecast changes most positive for nickel, palladium, metallurgical coal, iron ore, and steel.Preferred modity exposures by sector: Base metals copper and nickel Precious metals platinum Bulks iron ore and metallurgical coalsHighest conviction Overweight equities: Vedanta plc PanAust Ltd Western Areas NL Evraz plc Xstrata plc Implats Ltd Tata Steel Ltd Vale IncMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with panies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on munications with a subject pany, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst accountExecutive Summary4Key Changes6Top Picks7Economic and modities Outlook Base Metals Precious Metals8Top Equity IdeasAluminum & Alumina18Gold29VedantaEphrem RaviCopper21Nickel24Zinc26Silver32Platinum34Bulk moditiesSteel38Met Coal42Iron Ore45Thermal Coal4852PanAust53Craig CampbellWestern Areas54Cameron JuddEvraz55Dmitriy KolomystynXstrata56Ephrem RaviImplats57Albert MinassianTata Steel58Vipul PrasadVale59Carlos de AlbaGlobal Metals & Mining (Australia) Latin America Steel, Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper (New York/So Paulo)Peter Richardson +61 3 9256 8934Carlos de Alba1 212 761 4927Joel Crane+61 3 9256 8961Bruno Montanari +55 11 3048 6225EMEA Metals & Mining, Steel (London) Non-Japan Asia Metals & Mining (Singapore/Seoul/Hong Kong)Ephrem Ravi +44 20 7425 2127Charles Spencer (team leader) +65 6834 6825Carsten Riek +44 20 7425 3075Sangkyoo Park (Seoul coverage) +82 2 399 4846Markus Almerud +44 20 7425 9870Hyunjae Lee (Seoul coverage) +82 2 399 4850Alain Gabriel +44 20 7425 8959Sandy Niu (China coverage) +852 2239 1520Mean Phil Chong +65 6834 6194EMEA Metals & Mining, Steel (Moscow) John Lam + 852 2848 5412Dmitriy Kolomytsyn + 7 495 287 2309Timur Salikhov + 7 495 287 2118Asia Oil & Gas Coal (Hong Kong)Wee-Kiat Tan +852 2848 7488EMEA Metals & Mining, Steel (Johannesburg/Mumbai)Sara Chan +852 2848 5292Albert Minassian + 27 11 282 1154Josh Du +852 2239 7593Leigh Bregman + 27 11 282 8969Japan Metals & Mining, Steel (Tokyo)Australia Metals & Mining, Steel (Melbourne/Sydney)Harunobu Goroh +81 3 5424 5343Craig Campbell +61 3 9256 8936Akira Morimoto +81 3 6422 8650Cameron Judd +61 3 9256 8904Li Luo +86 21 2326 0032Sarah Lester +61 3 9256 8436Global modities (New York)India Metals & Mining, Steel (Mumbai)Hussein Allidina 1 212 761 4150Vipul Prasad +91 22 2209 7807Ketaki Kulkarni +91 22 2209 7925North America Metals & Mining, Steel (New York)Kalpesh Makwana +91 22 2209 7171Mark Liinamaa1 212 761 3537Evan L. Kurtz1 212 761 7583Paretosh Misra1 212 761 3590Wes Sconce1 212 761 6004Executive SummaryOutlook continues to strengthen despite policy risks Base metals: We expect further gains in base metal prices in 20XX and beyond, driven by a strengthening industrial production cycle, with copper and nickel our preferred exposures in this sector. Precious metals: A strengthening US dollar and reduced de-hedging represent a significant headwind for gold, while we expect a revival in global automotive production and continued supply issues in South Africa to be particularly favourable for platinum group metals. Bulk modities: A strong cyclical recovery in bulk modity prices is taking place in 20XX as global steel production and power consumption are rising against a backdrop of significant changes to the contract pricing mechanism for iron ore and metallurgical coal.Chinas Manufacturing PMI and Industrial Production,20XX-20XXTrade Weighted Index of the US Dollar,20XX-20XX60.055.050.045.0Index yoy % chg20.0016.0012.00105100959085807540.035.08.00 70654.00 60Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10Chinese Manuf acturing PMI (LHS) Chinese IP (RHS)Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10Source: Reuters, Morgan Stanley ResearchSource: Reuters, Morgan Stanley ResearchExecutive SummaryStay long this sector with a bias towards bulk modities1H 09: Strong policy stimulus, better credit conditions, rising liquidity, turn in leading indicatorsAttractive sector re-entry point: base metals rally on Chinese restockingFocus on USD and policy risk: increase weighting towards PGMs and bulk modities2H 09: Expansionary policies maintained; further rise in leading indicators, coincident activity lagging (except in China), USD weakeningShift of emphasis: precious metals rally on US dollar weaknessBroaden sector exposure on strengthening growth but caution on gold20XX-11 Strategy: Maintain exposure to sector: increase weight in bulks, selective base metal exposure with a bias towardscopper and nickel; increase PGMexposureQ1 10: Emerging markets drive growth, sub-par recovery in OECD, gradual but early liquidity withdrawal, USD strengthening5Top PicksGlobal Top Equity OverweightsAttractive risk-reward balance in our favored stock picks VedantaLarge iron and copper exposure, best in class growth and cost restructuring PanAustLow-cost miner with potential for growth in preferred modity copper Western AreasHigh-growth, low-cost producer of high-grade nickel sulfide EvrazExposure to growing Asian markets and recovering Russian construction sector XstrataLeverage to three of our favored modities copper, coal, and platinum ImplatsExposure to our favored modities platinum and palladium Tata SteelSolid raw materials integration in high growth markets, and high steel price sensitivity ValeStrong iron ore leveraged name200%150%100%50%current price-50%57%57%41%35%33%25%25%23%BULLBASEPTBEAR-100%Vedanta PanAust WesternAreasEvraz Xstrata Implats Tata Steel ValeSource: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research6Key ChangesMetal price revisions continue to reflect a strengthening cycle We have increased our 20XX-11 base metal forecasts by a weighted average of 5.0% and 5.9% respectively as a result of the improved global industrial production outlook. The largest positive change to our base metal forecasts is in nickel, reflecting the impact of a much improved demand profile and a decline in the supply overhang. Copper remains our preferred exposure in the plex based on resilient Chinese demand, improved OECD off-take and constrained supply. Q1 20XX mark-to-market changes have driven falls in our 20XX gold and silver forecasts, with further adjustments in silver designed to reflect this basing effect as well as lower industrial demand in the photography sector. We have further upgraded our PGM forecasts with a strong deficit market profile expected in platinum from OECD automotive recovery and strong growth in Chinese autocatalyst and jewellery demand and a backdrop of continuing supply constraints in South Africa.Base Metals:PeriodAluminiumCopperZincNickelAlumina (contract)NewOldChgUS$/lb US$/lb%NewOldChgUS$/lb US$/lb%NewOldChgUS$/lb US$/lb%NewOldChgUS$/lb US$/lb%NewOldChgUS$/t US$/t%20XX20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXeLT0.750.990.981%1.031.012%1.101.055%1.201.154%1.181.107%1.151.0510%1.151.150%2.303.313.184%3.413.255%3.453.401%3.603.503%2.902.707%2.502.0025%1.951.950%0.741.030.976%1.071.033%1.101.055%1.121.102%1.050.996%0.980.8615%0.900.900%6.549.187.8517%9.867.9125%10.308.2026%10.508.2527%9.257.5023%8.137.1314%7.507.500%2283143053%3313261%3563405%3883724%3783547%370335 10%3803557%Precious Metals:PeriodGoldSilverPlatinumPalladiumNewOldChgUS$/oz US$/oz%NewOldChgUS$/t US$/t%NewOldChgUS$/oz US$/oz%NewOldChgUS$/oz US$/oz%20XX20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXeLT9741,1591,200 -3%1,1251,1250%1,0751,0750%1,0251,0250%9759750%9009000%7507500%14.7017.48 19.35 -10%17.29 18.14 -5%16.75 17.34 -3%16.25 16.52 -2%15.50 15.73 -1%14.52 14.520%12.10 12.100%1,1981,571 1,5253%1,638 1,5665%1,700 1,6135%1,750 1,50316%1,600 1,4639%1,450 1,4401%1,300 1,3000%261443372 19%471385 22%485403 20%500376 33%450366 23%400360 11%3503500%Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates7Key ChangesPricing revolution in iron ore and coal drives uplift in steel pricesPeriodIron Ore (Australian fines - Asia)Iron Ore (Brazilian Fines - Asia)Spot Iron Ore (Aus Fines)NewOldChgYoYUS$/t US$/t% chgNewOldChgYoYUS$/t US$/t% chgNewOldChgUS$/t US$/t%20XX20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXeLT62.1-33%118.0 118.00%90%129.7 129.70%10%136.2 136.20%5%143.0 143.00%5%135.9 135.90%-5%122.3 122.30%-10%53.5 53.50%59.0-28%112.2 112.20%90%123.4 123.40%10%129.6 129.60%5%136.0 136.00%5%129.2 129.20%-5%116.3 116.30%-10%50.0 50.00%127.1 127.10%149.0 149.00%150.2 150.20%151.1 151.10%139.8 139.80%123.6 123.60%Bulks: We expect rising global production of steel and stronger growth in power demand to lift benchmark prices for iron ore, metallurgical coal, and thermal coal in 20XX and beyond. The magnitude of price changes being driven by the adoption of new pricing mechanisms in metallurgical coal and iron ore is unprecedented and far exceeds anticipated increases in thermal coal prices in JFY 20XX. A 72% rise in hard coking coal prices pares with a forecast increase of36% in thermal coal in JFY 20XX. The shift to quarterly contract pricing based on index-linked spot prices is having a more material impact on iron ore than metallurgical coal initially.PeriodHard Coking CoalQrtrly HCCPCI CoalSemi Soft CoalThermal CoalNewOldChgUS$/t US$/t%NewUS$/tNewOldChgUS$/tUS$/t%NewOldChgUS$/tUS$/t%NewOldChgUS$/t US$/t%20XX20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXeLT1292222220%2352350%2472470%2592590%2332330%2102100%1101100%2022020%2142140%2242240%2362360%2122120%1911910%1101100%901771770%1881880%1981980%2072070%1871870%1681680%95950%80167141 18%1501500%1571570%1651650%1481480%1341340%90900%709585 12%105987%110100 10%115105 10%10595 11%90856%70700%PeriodGlobal HRCUS HRCChina HRCJapan HRCEuro HRCNewOldChgUS$/t US$/t%NewOldChgUS$/t US$/t%NewOldChgUS$/tUS$/t%NewOldChgUS$/tUS$/t%NewOldChgUS$/t US$/t%20XX20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXeLT59069561513%75065515%79070013%81572013%79571012%76567513%6006000%53171063013%77065018%85071519%89575519%89575519%85071519%66066058014%67561510%6956655%7106608%6656404%6406154%72985071818%88075017%89577016%90077017%88077014%85077010%57371663712%80970016%82872115%84074812%81974210%79869714%Steel:Key ChangesMorgan Stanley forecasts pared with consensusYear End DecemberUnitMS20XXe Mkt 20XXe % DiffMSMkt20XXe20XXe% DiffMSMkt20XXe20XXe% DiffBase MetalsAluminium Copper ZincLeadNickelPrecious MetalsGold Silver Platinum Palladium Bulks Alumina Iron OreCoking CoalSteam CoalUS$/lb US$/lb US$/lb US$/lb US$/lbUS$/oz US$/oz US$/oz US$/ozUS$/t US$/t US$/t US$/t0.990.990%3.313.271%1.031.011%1.021.002%9.188.1612%1,15911293%17.4817.64-1%1,5711588-1%4434137%3143005%1189130%22219414%95897%1.031.021%3.413.45-1%1.071.07-1%1.061.024%9.868.1521%1,1251141-1%17.2917.99-4%1,6381702-4%4714720%3313078%1309438%23519421%1059313%1.101.028%3.453.285%1.101.073%1.081.062%10.307.9729%1,07510780%16.7516.551%1,70017020%485488-1%35630815%1369347%24717938%1109023%Morgan Stanley versus Consensus, 20XXeMorgan Stanley versus Consensus, 20XXe40%40%38%30%20%10%0%-10%30%14% 12%7% 7%5% 3% 2%1% 1% 0%-1% -1%30%20%10%0%-10%21% 21%13%8%4%1% 0%-1% -1% -1%-4% -4%Economic OutlookChina still in the drivers seat The economic outlook continued to improve in the first quarter of 20XX. Growth in emerging markets and a handful of modity-dependent economies outperformed most OECD economies that remain constrained by the after-effects of the credit crisis. However leading indicators of industrial production in the US point to a strengthening recovery over the course of this year, confirming our view that the US will be the strongest of the OECD economies this year, despite an apparent relapse of weakness in the US housing market. Much of the cyclical growth story remains dependent on China and we remain very positive on the countrys outlook for industrial output growth this year and beyond. We have raised our forecast for Chinese industrial production growth this year to 17.4% from our previous forecast of 13.5% following the increase in Morgan Stanleys forecast for Chinas 20XX GDP growth to 11%. We also expect strong growth in output from India, Brazil, and Korea to lift 20XX global industrial production by 6.7% YoY to the highest level since20XX.Global Industrial Production 20XX-15e20XX20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXe20XXeChina12.710.417.412.712.112.411.011.0India4.46.18.17.510.310.48.06.1Japan-3.2-21.912.08.54.87.04.03.0South Korea3.0-1.38.07.09.47.26.04.0Russia2.3-11.35.96.55.25.24.53.9Canada-5.6-12.54.03.83.72.52.53.0United States-2.2-9.84.83.52.92.51.02.5Germany0.0-16.78.34.54.74.53.01.5United Kingdom-2.9-10.82.73.52.42.21.20.9Global1.3-4.26.75.15.15.44.34.3e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Source: CHR Metals, CRU, Morgan Stanley ResearchEconomic OutlookRebound in leading indicators highlights growth in 20XXUS ISM Manufacturing PMI vs G3 Industrial Production, 1996-20XX Leading indicators of IP and manufacturing output remain at elevated levels in the US and these gains should be reflected in its return to the role of growth leader in the G3 in 20XX. In Europe, recovery is mixed with France and Germany sustaining an export-driven improvement in industrial output, especially as sovereign risk is expected to maintain pressure on the euro. In industrial east Asia, leading indicators of production in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan remain strong30.020.010.00.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0yoy % chg Index65.060.055.050.045.040.035.030.0as exports recover, a development that should besustained by