“熱錢”可控在人民幣改革過程中.doc

Hot Money controllable as yuan reform proceed“熱錢”可控，在人民幣改革過程中China will be able to keep inflows of speculative capital under control even if the latest clarifications on its yuan policy trigger any influx of hot money, a former central bank adviser has said.即使因近日中國關(guān)于人民幣政策的聲明引起大量 “熱錢”的涌入，中國仍舊能夠保證投機(jī)資本的流入在可控范圍內(nèi)，央行前顧問說。The Peoples Bank of China, the central bank, said in a statement on Saturday that it will proceed further with the reform of the yuan exchange rate regime to enhance its rate flexibility. The move has been interpreted as the start of allowing the yuan to rise against the US dollar after it remained stable for 23 months.中國央行-中國人民銀行，在上周六一則聲明中表示，中國將繼續(xù)推進(jìn)人民幣匯率機(jī)制改革以進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)匯率的靈活性。此舉已被解釋為在人民幣保持23個月穩(wěn)定后，中國開始允許人民幣升值。On Sunday, the central bank said in a statement that it will maintain a stable exchange rate and there will be no drastic fluctuation in the value of the yuan. There will be no one-off adjustment in the value of the yuan and the fluctuation of its value must be controllable to prevent market forces from causing excessive swings, it said. 央行在上周日的聲明中說，將會保持匯率的穩(wěn)定，不會出現(xiàn)大幅波動。不會對人民幣升值實行一次性調(diào)整，其波動將在可控范圍內(nèi)，以免因波動幅度過大造成市場動蕩，它說。The basis for large-scale appreciation of the yuan exchange rate does not exist, it said. “大幅調(diào)整人民幣匯率升值人民幣的基礎(chǔ)條件不存在”它說。The statement emphasized the yuan be pegged to a basket of currencies, adding that the US dollar should not be the only gauge for judging the renminbi exchange rate level. 聲明還強(qiáng)調(diào)，人民幣將掛鉤多種貨幣，并補充說，美元不應(yīng)該成為衡量人民幣匯率水平的唯一尺度。Keeping the rate at a reasonable, balanced level will contribute to economic stability and help restructure the Chinese economy with greater emphasis on services and consumption, it said. 保持匯率在一個“合理、均衡的水平”將促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定，并有助于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型，使之更側(cè)重于服務(wù)業(yè)和消費，它說。The stance is clear: The yuan will enter a track of gradual appreciation, said Zhang Xiaojing, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.“我們立場是明確的：人民幣將進(jìn)入一個逐步升值的軌道，” 社會科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家張曉靜說。Although depreciation cannot be ruled out given the falling euro, the yuan could rise in the short term. “不過由于歐元下跌導(dǎo)致其貶值不可避免，人民幣值在短期內(nèi)可能升值。”Still, the approach has triggered concern that more speculative capital, or hot money, will flow into the country to gain from any continual appreciation of the yuan.而且，隨著該情況的臨近已引起更多投機(jī)資本或“熱錢”的關(guān)注，并將流入國內(nèi)以期在人民幣不斷升值中獲利。The possibility is there, said Yu Yongding, a former member of the central banks monetary policy committee. “這種可能性是存在的，” 中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會前成員余永定說。But we should not panic and stop allowing the yuan to get more flexible simply because of that; we can keep it under control by enhancing cross-border capital control, Yu, who is also head of the China Society of World Economics, told China Daily.“但我們不用驚慌，不用因此而停止使人民幣變得更加靈活的步伐。我們可以通過加強(qiáng)跨境資本流動調(diào)控對其進(jìn)行控制”余這樣告訴中國日報，他也是中國世界經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)會會長。More flexibility does not mean one-way appreciation, he said. It would be a two-way movement, which would help thwart currency speculation.“更多的靈活性并不意味著只是一味地升值貨幣，”他說。“這是一個雙向的運動，有助于抵御貨幣投機(jī)。”The countrys decision to shift to a basket of currencies as a reference for the yuans value will also give policymakers more room to maneuver in their effort to control cross-border capital flows, he said.國家作出的由參照單一貨幣轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閰⒄斩鄧泿艁泶_定人民幣幣值的決定，使得政府在努力控制跨境資本流動的過程中有更多的回旋余地，他說。The gradualist way of currency appreciation, while causing more inflows of speculative capital, will help control such adverse capital movement, analysts said.這種漸進(jìn)式的貨幣升值方式，盡管同時會造成更多的投機(jī)資本流入，但對控制這種不利的資本流動是有利的，分析師說。If the annual appreciation of the currency can be kept below 3 percent, it will make it hard for speculators to profit, since they will have to pay dual-way transaction costs that will be close to what they can gain from a rising yuan, said Zhou Shijian, senior economist at the China-US relations research center of Tsinghua University. If the yuan rises, it must be narrow-floating.如果貨幣升值每年可保持在3%以下，投機(jī)者將難以獲利，因為他們要付出的雙向交易成本就已接近他們將從人民幣升值中獲得的利益，中國清華大學(xué)中美關(guān)系研究中心高級經(jīng)濟(jì)師周世儉說?！叭绻嗣駧乓?，就必須小幅浮動?！盇 hasty, swift appreciation of the yuan will make it difficult to control an influx of hot money and endanger the Chinese economy, Zhou said, citing widespread trade sector bankruptcies and job losses in the country from October 2007 to July 2008, when the yuan appreciated by 11 percent against the dollar, compared with about 8 percent in the previous two and a half years.倉促而迅速的進(jìn)行人民幣升值將使“熱錢”變得難以控制，而且還會危害中國經(jīng)濟(jì)，周說，并援引了從2007年10月到2008年7月人民幣迅速升值11%導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域的出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模破產(chǎn)倒閉并引起大量失業(yè)的例子。而較之前近兩年半人民幣才升值了8%。By claiming that there would be no one-off revaluation this time, the authorities have obviously learnt from that experience, Zhou said.“顯然政府已經(jīng)吸取了之前的教訓(xùn)，所以這次聲明不會對人民幣升值進(jìn)行一次性調(diào)整，”周說。The yuan has risen by 21 percent against the greenback since 2005. Economists said that if the currency rises gradually, it will benefit the Chinese economy, although it could also bring about uncertainties as the lingering European debt crisis will dampen Chinese exports to Europe, Chinas largest trade partner.自2005年以來，人民幣相對于美鈔已升值了21%。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說，如果采取使貨幣逐步升值的方式，將有利于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，盡管這可能會帶來一些不確定因素，尤其是在中國最大貿(mào)易伙伴-歐洲發(fā)生債務(wù)危機(jī)且遲遲不去削弱中國對歐出口的情況下。A rising yuan will also make Chinese imports cheaper, they said. China is now a major importer of such commodities as oil and iron ore. 人民幣升值也使中國的進(jìn)口更加便宜，他們說。尤其是中國現(xiàn)在成為了石油、鐵礦石等商此類品的主要進(jìn)口國。Similarly, the countrys economic restructuring could accelerate toward a services- and consumption-driven economy.同樣，也將有助于國家經(jīng)濟(jì)加速向服務(wù)業(yè)和消費驅(qū)動型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變。In the short term, efforts to control inflation will be beneficial as well, said Nouriel Roubini, an economist and chairman of economics consultancy Roubini Global Economics. 在短期內(nèi)，對努力控制通貨膨脹也是有利的，魯比尼全球經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司主席、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家努里爾魯比尼說。Given the context that (Chinas) inflation is rising