乘用車變速器市場分析與預測外文文獻翻譯/汽車車輛類外文翻譯/中英文翻譯

黑龍江工程學院本科生畢業(yè)設計                                              1 附   錄   Market Analysis and Forecast of Light Vehicle Transmission  1 Global transmission market status  The current global vehicle production increases at an average annual rate of 3.5% per year and is expected to at least 89 million at 2015. With the increase in light vehicle production, manual transmission and planetary gear automatic transmission is also expected to yield increases, but they will be occupied a part of the CVT market share by the AMT. Compared with planetary gear transmission, AMT and the CVT automatic transmission can not only improve the transmission efficiency and decrease production costs, but also can quickly improve the shift quality； so it is expected that AMT will be higher growth rates. CVT applications will be limited to small vehic les, but if the ring IVT technology in practical applications become more mature, reliable and gain market acceptance, it can achieve strong growth momentum.  2 Transmission Market Analysis and Forecast  2.1 manual transmission (MT) Over the years, Western Europe focus on studying driving control, manufacturing costs and fuel economy and other issues, becoming the largest market for manual transmissions, but it is expected that in the next 5 years, the market position of the manual transmission will eventually be replaced by Eastern Europe and Asia. However, in whole Europe, the proportion of manual transmission has been on the decline, especially when the AMT gains more market share and the automatic transmission is applied the small car market and manual transmission in the European new car market share is expected to decrease from 2005 In about 80% to 70% in 2010, about 55% by 2015. At Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), manual transmission market share is expected to decrease from 87% in 2005 dow n to 85% in 2010 and drop to 83% in 2015. However, automatic transmission and CVT are very popular in Japan, and manual transmission will lose market share gradually, expecting to decline from the current 22% to 13% in 2010. In North America, the manual transmission market share is expected to continue to decline, from 13% in 2005 down to 11% in 2010, and by 2015 only 10% of the market. In China, India, Pacific Rim and South America, 5-speed manual transmission is expected to continue to occupy most of the market share. Overall, as a slight increase in global automotive production, the global market share of the manual transmission is expected to decline.  2.2 Automatic Transmission (AT) Over the years, the North American car owners are more like driving a car with automatic transmission, and this preference will still continue, despite the recent tend that buying a vehicle with better fuel economy may affect the automatic transmission market, resulting market share falling. Planetary gear automatic transmission will account for 85% of the market share in 2010, 87% in 2005 but2015 will drop to 83%. In 2010, 5-speed automatic transmission will account for 77% of total transmission, while the market share of 6-speed transmission will increase, especially the large torque 6-speed transmission. 6-speed automatic transmission is expected to account for 15% 20%of the total output of automatic transmission, 50% by 2010. In 2015. 4-speed automatic transmission is expected to disappear from new product by 2010.  Due to CVT quickly capture the market, especially in Japan account for a large proportion of small and micro-car segment, automatic transmission has been Japan's dominant position in the market for 黑龍江工程學院本科生畢業(yè)設計                                              2 many years. Automatic transmission market share is expected to decrease from 60% in 2005 to 50% in 2010, down to 45% in 2015. New car market has grown rapidly in the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), automatic transmission is expected to increase from 15% in 2005 to 18% in 2010, 22% in 2015. In Europe, the automatic transmission market will be eroded by DCT, from 17% in 2005 down to 16% in 2015 to 14% by 2015. In the March 2007 survey found that 15% of the next European automatic transmission owners planed to buy a car assembled DCT select models, and more than 40% report showed that they would consider models with AMT. According to analysis, the global vehicle production assembled automatic transmission will soon exceed manual transmission car, but a part of the total amount of the automatic transmission increase in the proportion due to AMT. With the growth of AMT and the CVT, the traditional planetary automatic transmission is expected to be only slightly higher than the 29 million units in 2005, while in 2010 it will surpass 3000 million and in 2015 achieve 33 million units.  2.3 Continuously variable transmission (CVT) CVT in Japan has been in a dominant market position, its market share is expected to continue to grow from about 20% in 2005 to 38% in 2010. In other markets, CVT will only get a certain degree of market acceptance. CVT may be expected to achieve 5% market share in Europe by 2010, but the possibility of achieving that is even smaller than the market in North America. While CVT can transmit high torque, but manufacturing CVT need special alloy steel and require special high-precision machining, making the manufacturing cost relatively expensive, much higher than the manual transmission with considerable power. CVT size is also an assembly problem, in Europe because its lower torque transmission capability has limited consumer acceptance. In North America, full of large displacement vehicles, the CVT significantly reduced market penetration, and only to such as the Honda Civic Hybrid and other automotive facilities. Although acceptance is limited in the two larger markets, the global production of CVT is expected to increase about 60%, from 250 million units in 2005 to 400 million units in 2010 and in 2015 almost 600 million units. It will be driven by fast-growing small car market in developing countries, markets in developed countries shifting to better fuel economy small cars and hybrid technology.  2.4 The automatic mechanical transmission (AMT) AMT market share is expected to be significant growth in the coming years, especially with the improvement of the quality shift in the traditional automatic transmission, leading to the luxury car market more attractive. One advantage of AMT is the hydraulic to electric drive to get better transmission efficiency and transmission efficiency of AMT in a way beyond the manual gearbox, because the driver is unlikely to be more than a computer to optimize shift to Improve fuel economy.  Because European prefers the manual transmission traditionally, and focus on driver control and the study of fuel economy, the growth rate of AMT in Europe will be the highest, where the market share is expected to increase from only 1% in 2005 to 15% in 2010 and to 29% by 2015. Survey found that 15% of the purchaser and carrying automatic transmission European car owners plan to buy a c ar with DCT next time, more than 40% of car owners would consider buying a car with AMT. The market share of DCT will reach 29% by 2015 in Europe, but analysts predict the share is only 10%. In the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan, market share of AMT is expected to reach 7% in 2010, rising to 13% by 2015. It is predicted that market share of AMT in Japan is very low, no more than 2% in 2010. Automatic transmissions in North America are expected to continue to maintain the leading position, the market share of AMT rise from 0 in 2005 to 4% in 2010 and 7% by 2015. Global production of AMT is expected to surpass 5.5 million units in 2010 and reach about 1,200 million units in 2015. 黑龍江工程學院本科生畢業(yè)設計                                              3 黑龍江工程學院本科生畢業(yè)設計                                              4 乘用車變速器市場分析與預測   1 全球變速器市場現(xiàn)狀  目前全球汽車產(chǎn)量平均以每年 3.5的速度遞增，預計至 2015 年全球輕型汽車產(chǎn)量將至少達到 8900 萬輛。隨著輕型汽車的產(chǎn)量增加，手動變速器和行星齒輪自動變速器的產(chǎn)量預計也將隨之增加，但都將會被 AMT 和 CVT 侵占一部分市場份額。 AMT 和 CVT 與行星齒輪自動變速器相比，不僅提高了傳動效率而且制造成本不高，而且能快速提高換擋質(zhì)量；所以預計 AMT 將獲得較高的增長率。 CVT 的應用將局限于小型車輛上，但如果環(huán)形 IVT 技術(shù)在實際應用中越來越成熟可靠并取得市場認可，則可以取得強勁的增長勢頭。  2 變速器市場分析與預測  2.1 手動變速器（ MT）  多年來，西歐關(guān)注于研究駕駛控制、制造成本和燃油經(jīng)濟性等問題，現(xiàn)在已成為手 動變速器的最大市場，但預計在未來 5年內(nèi)手動變速器的最大市場位置最終將被東歐和亞洲替代。然而在整個歐洲，手動變速器所占的比例卻一直在下降，特別是受 AMT獲得更多的市場份額和自動變速器打入小型車市場的影響，預計手動變速器在歐洲新車的市場份額將從 2005年約 80降到 2010年的70左右，到 2015年約為 55。在亞太地區(qū)（不包括日本），手動變速器的市場份額預計將從 2005年的 87下降到 2010年的 85，到 2015年下降到 83。而在日本，自動變速器和 CVT 很受歡迎，手動變速器將失去市場份額，預計從目前的 22下降到 2010年的 13。在北美，手動變速器的市場份額預計將繼續(xù)下降，從 2005年的 13降到 2010年的 11，到 2015年時僅占市場的 10。而在我國、印度、太平洋沿岸地區(qū)和南美洲，預計 5 速手動變速器將繼續(xù)占有絕大部分市場份額。總體而言，隨著全球汽車總產(chǎn)量略有增加，手動變速器的全球市場份額預計將持續(xù)下降。  2.2 自動變速器（ AT）  多年來，北美車主都更喜歡駕駛裝有自動變速器的汽車，這種偏好將仍然繼續(xù)，盡管近期趨于購買燃油經(jīng)濟性更好車輛的可能會影響到自動變速器市場，導致市場份額下降 1。行星齒 輪自動變速器在 2010年仍將占據(jù) 85的市場份額，而 2005年為 87，到 2015年將下降到 83。 2010年，預計 5速自動變速器將占變速器總產(chǎn)量的 77，而 6速變速器市場份額將增加，尤其是大轉(zhuǎn)矩 6速變速器。預計 6速自動變速器到 2010年將占自動變速器總產(chǎn)量的 15 20， 2015年為 50。預計 4速自動變速器到 2010年將從新車產(chǎn)品中消失。  多年來日本的自動變速器也一直處于市場的主導地位，由于 CVT迅速占領(lǐng)市場特別是在日本占有很大比例的小型和微型汽車細分市場 2。預計自動變速器市場份額將從 2005年的 60下降到2010年的 50，到 2015年為 45。在新車市場增長很快的亞太地區(qū)（除日本），預計自動變速器將從 2005年的 15上升到 2010年的 18， 2015年達到 22。在歐洲，  自動變速器市場將被 DCT蠶食，從 2005年的 17下降到 2015年的 16，到 2015年為 14。在 2007年 3月調(diào)查中發(fā)現(xiàn)， 15的歐洲自動變速器車主計劃下次購買汽車選擇裝配 DCT的車型，有超過 40的報告說他們將考慮裝有 AMT的車型。分析認為，全球汽車產(chǎn)量中裝載自動變速器的汽車將很快超過裝載手動變速器的汽車，但在自動變 速器的總量中有部分是由 AMT所占比例上升引起的。隨著 AMT和 CVT的增長，預計傳統(tǒng)行星齒輪自動變速器的產(chǎn)量將僅略高于 2005年的 2900萬臺， 2010年將超過 3 000萬臺并在 2015年達到 3300萬臺。  2.3 連續(xù)可變變速器（ CVT）  CVT在日本一直處于市場主導地位，預計 CVT市場份額將繼續(xù)增長，從 2005年的 20左右增加到 2010年的 38。在其他市場， CVT將僅獲得一定的市場認可度。預計到 2010年 CVT