unidir -評(píng)估用于應(yīng)對(duì)小武器和輕武器轉(zhuǎn)移的技術(shù) Assessing Technologies to Counter the Diversion of Small Arms and Light Weapons

ANALYSIS

AI-GeneratedImage(DALL·E3)

PROJECTD-TECT

Assessingtechnologiestocounterthe

diversionofsmallarmsandlightweapons

June2024

SarahGrand-Clément(UNIDIR)

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Basedonaseriesofstakeholderengagements,thispaperexaminestherelevanceandappli-cabilityof14technologiestosupportorstrengtheneffortstocounterthediversionofsmallarmsandlightweapons(SALW).Thetechnologiesexaminedare:2Dcodes,chemicalencoding,DNAcoding,documentauthentication,electronicseals,GNSSandmobiletracking,near-fieldcommunication,radio-frequencyidentification,sensors,InternetofThings,distributedledgertechnology,bigdataanalysis,naturallanguageprocessing,andcomputervision.

AlltechnologieswereassessedashavingpotentialrelevanceinhelpingtocounterSALWdiversion.Thetypesoftechnologiesidentifiedasmostrelevanttendedtodifferdependingonthelifecyclestage(i.e.,pre-export,transferorpost-delivery)andcounter-diversionelement(i.e.,prevention,detectionoridentification),withtechnologiesbettersuitedatdetectingoridentifyingdiversionratherthanpreventingitsoccurrence.However,becausethechoiceofaspecifictechnologyshouldbebasedoncontextandneed,thispaperdoesnotrecommendspecifictechnologies,oracombinationthereof,tohelpcounterdiversion.

Infrastructuralandcostrequirementswereassessedasposingthehighestbarrierstothesuccessfulimplementationofthetechnologies.Additionally,theadoptionofatechnologywillalsonecessitateovercomingseveralsystemicbarriers.TheseincludefragmentationamongthemultipleactorsinvolvedinSALW,practicalitiesoftechnologydevelopmentandadoption,lackofinfrastructure(digital,physical,regulatory)surroundingthetechnology,costoftech-nology,nationalsecurityconsiderations,lackofsufficientknowledgeablepersonnel,andneedfordataanddatamanagement.

Thepaperprovidesanon-exhaustiveoverviewofpossibleoptionswhichcouldbeundertakentoovercomeormitigatethesebarriers,includingstrengtheninginternationalandregionalcollaborationandinter-agencycooperation,buildinguptheevidenceandknowledgebase,reinforcingorestablishingtheappropriatephysical,regulatoryanddigitalinfrastructure,andundertakinginstitutionalcapacity-buildingandindividualtraining.

2

ANALYSIS

Acknowledgements

SupportfromUNIDIR’scorefundersprovidesthefoundationforalloftheInstitute’sactivities.ThepreparationofthisjointreporthasbeensupportedbygenerousfundingforUNIDIR’sConventionalArmsandAmmunitionProgrammebyGermanyandforUNIDIR’sSecurityandTechnologyProgrammebyCzechia,Germany,Italy,theNeth-erlands,SwitzerlandandNorway,andbyMicro-soft.TheFlemishPeaceInstituteisfundedbytheFlemishParliament.

Theauthorwishestothanktheexpertswhopartic-ipatedintheinterviews,surveysandworkshopsandprovidedinvaluableinputsduringthecourseoftheresearch.Theauthorisalsogratefultotheexpertswhoreviewedandprovidedfeedback,includingPaulHoltom,NilsDuquet,GiacomoPersiPaoli,DiederikCops,HardyGiezendanner,AxelKrickow,DwayneEdghill,SheenaArneaud,RobHunter-PerkinsandWentingHe.

Glossary

?Componentsofconventionalweapons(CWC):Acomponentcanbedefinedas“oneofseveralormanyunitsofwhichsomethingiscomposed”.Inthecontextofconventionalweapons,thisreferstothedifferentelementsanditemsthatareusedtodevelopandbuildaconventionalweapon.Theseitemscouldbelargeormajorcomponentssuchasengines,aeroplanefuselagesorturrets,butalsosmalleritemssuchaselectronicsystemsorthesubcomponentsusedtoconstructthemajorcomponents.

?Diversion:“Thereroutingand/ortheappro-priationof...conventionalarmsorrelateditemscontrarytorelevantnationaland/orinternationallawleadingtoapotentialchangeintheeffectivecontrolorownershipofthearmsanditems.Instancesofsuchdiversioncantakevariousforms:(a)Anincidentofdiversioncanoccurwhentheitemsenteran

illicitmarket,orwhenredirectedtoanunau-thorisedorunlawfulenduserorforanunau-thorisedorunlawfulenduse.(b)Thereroutingandmisappropriationoftheitemscantakeplaceatanypointinthetransferchain,includingtheexport,import,transit,trans-shipment,storage,assembly,reactiva-tionorretransferoftheitems.(c)Thetransac-tionchainfacilitatingachangeofeffectiveownershipand/orcontrolcaninvolvevariousformsofexchange,whetherdirectlynegotiatedorbrokered–grant,credit,lease,barter,andcash–atanytimeduringthelifecycleoftheitems.”1

?Smallarmsandlightweapons(SALW):“‘Smallarmsandlightweapons’[are]anyman-port-ablelethalweaponthatexpelsorlaunches,isdesignedtoexpelorlaunch,ormaybereadilyconvertedtoexpelorlaunchashot,bulletorprojectilebytheactionofanexplosive,excludingantiquesmallarmsandlightweaponsortheirreplicas.Antiquesmallarmsandlightweaponsandtheirreplicaswillbedefinedinaccordancewithdomesticlaw.Innocasewillantiquesmallarmsandlightweaponsincludethosemanufacturedafter1899:(a)‘Smallarms’are,broadlyspeaking,weaponsdesignedforindividualuse.Theyinclude,interalia,revolversandself-loadingpistols,riflesandcarbines,sub-machineguns,assaultriflesandlightmachineguns;(b)‘Lightweapons’are,broadlyspeaking,weaponsdesignedforusebytwoorthreepersonsservingasacrew,althoughsomemaybecarriedandusedbyasingleperson.Theyinclude,interalia,heavymachineguns,handheldunder-barrelandmountedgrenadelaunchers,portableanti-air-craftguns,portableanti-tankguns,recoillessrifles,portablelaunchersofantitankmissileandrocketsystems,portablelaunchersofanti-aircraftmissilesystems,andmortarsofacalibreoflessthan100millimetres.”2Notethatthisdefinitiondoesnotincludeorpertaintoammunition.

?Technology:Thereisnosingledefinitionoftechnology.Forexample,theMerriam-Web-sterdictionarydefinesitinthreeways:(1)“thepracticalapplicationofknowledgeespeciallyinaparticulararea”or“acapabilitygivenbythepracticalapplicationofknowledge”;(2)“amannerofaccomplishingataskespeciallyusingtechnicalprocesses,methods,orknowl-edge”,and(3)“thespecializedaspectsofaparticularfieldofendeavor”.3Inthecontextofthisreport,thedefinitionoftechnologymostcloselyresemblestheseconddefinition:“amannerofaccomplishingataskespeciallyusingtechnicalprocesses,methods,orknowl-edge”.Specifically,thetechnologieswithinthescopeofthispaperarethosethathavebeenrecentlydevelopedandareemerginginthecontextofdiversionprevention,althoughthispaperdoesnotexaminetechnologiesatthelowestlevelsofreadiness.

3

Listofabbreviations

2D

AI

ATTCWC

DLT

D-TECT

GNSSIATG

Two-dimensional

ArtificialintelligenceArmsTradeTreaty

Componentsofconventionalweapons

Distributedledgertechnology

CounteringtheDiversionofarmsusingTEChnologyTools

GlobalnavigationsatellitesystemInternationalAmmunition

TechnicalGuidelinesIoTInternetofThings

ITIInternationalTracingInstrument

NFCNear-fieldcommunication

NLPNaturallanguageprocessing

PoAUnitedNationsProgrammeofActiontoPrevent,CombatandEradicatetheIllicitTradein

SmallArmsandLightWeaponsinAllItsAspects

RFIDRadio-frequencyidentification

SALWSmallarmsandlightweapons

UNUnitedNations

4

ANALYSIS

Section1-Introduction

Applyingtechnologyasoneofthetoolsto

preventdiversion

Thediversionofconventionalarmsandrelatedammunition,partsandcomponentstounauthor-isedendusersandendusesposesasignificantthreattosocietiesaroundtheglobe.Sincethelate1990s,internationalattentionhasfocusedspecif-icallyonthediversionofsmallarmsandlightweapons(SALW),ratherthanothertypesofconventionalarms(asoutlinedintheboxonthispage),duetotheiruseinconflictandforcriminalandterroristpurposes.Asaconsequence,initia-tiveshavebeendevelopedatthenational,regionalandinternationallevelstocounterthediversionofSALWtounauthorisedendusersorforunauthor-isedenduses.Preventingdiversionisanimpor-tantobjectiveofmanynationalexportcontrolsystemsandoftransfercontrols.Itisalsoakeyobjectiveofseveralinternationalandregionalinstrumentsthathavebeenadoptedtostrengthentheregulationofthetradeinspecifictypesofconventionalweapon,suchastheArmsTradeTreaty(ATT),theFirearmsProtocolandtheUnitedNationsProgrammeofActiontoPrevent,CombatandEradicatetheIllicitTradeinSmallArmsandLightWeaponsinAllItsAspects(PoA).

Acombinationofsystemicandpracticalmeasuresisrequiredtoeffectivelyreducetheriskofdiver-sionofweaponsystems.5Arangeofnon-techno-logicalapproaches,suchasinformationsharing,isalreadyinplacetocounterdiversion.Whiletechnologycouldalsoaddresstheissueofdiver-sion,inpracticethegeneraluptakeandimple-mentationoftechnologiestocounterthediversionofconventionalarms,ammunitionand,partsandcomponentsremainsrelativelylimited.Overall,thereappearstobeagapbetween,ontheonehand,theincreasingdiscussionsofusingtechnol-ogiesincounter-diversioneffortsandinitiativesand,ontheother,theireffectivewide-scaleimplementation.

Mainmethodsfordiversionof

SALW4

SALWareatanincreasedriskofdiversioncomparedtoother,largermilitaryequipmentforseveralreasons:

?“Theireaseofuse,asSALWdonotre-quireparticulartechnicalskillsorequip-menttooperate,makingthemaccessibleandattractivetoawiderangeofusers,includingbutnotlimitedtostateand

non-statearmedforces,securityforces,policeforces,andcivilians.

?Theeaseofdiversionofsuchitems,giv-entheirsmallsize,makingthem‘easytoconceal’.

?Theirlonglifecycle,increasingthe

opportunitiesfordiversionacrosstheirlifetime.

?ThehighscaleofproductionofSALW,

whichcanmakeindividualproductsmoredifficulttokeeptrackof.

“Inthiscontext,itisalsoimportanttoconsiderthatSALWisabroadcategorycomprisingmanydifferenttypesofweapons.Someofthesewillbeatgreaterriskofdiver-sion,simplybecausetheyaremoreappealingtousers.Otherswillposegreaterrisktointernationalsecurity,suchasman-portableair-defencesystems(MANPADS)andman-portableanti-tanksystems(MANPATS),duetotheirabilitytothreatenandaffectlargermilitary(andcivilian)equipmenttoagreaterextentthanotherSALW.”

5

Purposeandscopeofthispaper

Therelevanceoftechnologytostrengtheningcounter-diversioneffortswasexploredaspartoftheinitialphaseoftheCounteringtheDiversionofarmsusingTEChnologyTools(D-TECT)project.ProjectD-TECTaimstodevelopandtestanapproachtoidentifyingandassessingtheutilityandfeasibilityofusingspecifictechnologiesforpreventing,detecting,negatingormitigatingthediversionofconventionalweaponsandtheircomponents.ProjectD-TECTconsistsoftwoconsecutivephases:

?Toidentifyexistingtechnologiesthatcouldbesuitedtocounteringthediversionofconventionalweaponsystems,includingSALW,ammunition,partsandcomponents(hereafterreferredtoas“conventionalweaponsandrelatedcomponents”),andtodevelopaframeworkthatmakesitpossibletoidentifyandassesstechnologiesusedtocounterdiversion.

?Toassess,refineandvalidatethelistoftechnologiesidentifiedinphase1inrela-tiontospecifictypesofconventionalweaponsystems.

ThefindingsandconclusionsofProjectD-TECTresearchcouldberelevantinthecontextofthedifferentinternationalandregionalinstrumentsthatseektoenhanceeffortstoprevent,detect,eradicateandaddressdiversionofSALW.Inparticular,thesefindingscouldhaverelevanceinthecontextofongoingprocesses,notablythePoAandtheATT,aswellastheFirearmsProtocol,theGlobalFrameworkforThrough-lifeConventionalAmmunitionManagement,andrelevantprocessesoftheUNSecurityCouncilandsubsidiaryorgans

(suchasitscommittees).Assuch,theprimaryintendedaudienceisstateauthorities.Additionalrelevantstakeholdersforwhomthisresearchisrelevantincludetheprivatesector,civilsociety,internationalorganisations,andallotherstake-holdersinvolvedacrossthelifecycleofSALWandcomponentsofconventionalweapons(CWC).Asummaryofthemainfindingsisprovidedbelow.

ThispaperpresentsfindingsfromthesecondphaseofProjectD-TECT,whichfocusesspecifi-callyontheapplicationoftechnologytocounterthediversionofSALW.AsecondpaperexaminingCWCwillbereleasedinAugust2024.7Futurephasesofresearchwillexpandbeyondthesetwospecifictypesofitemsandalsoexploretheappli-cabilityoftheframeworktoothertypesofconven-tionalweapons,componentsandammunition.

Thispaperpresentsinitialinsightsintotherele-vanceandapplicabilityofselectedtechnologiestosupportorstrengtheneffortstocounterthediver-sionofSALW.Ithighlightsbarrierstotheuseoftechnologyandpossibleavenuestoovercometheseobstacles.DrawingontheinitiallonglistoftechnologiesidentifiedinthefirstphaseofD-TECT,14technologies(presentedinTable1alongwithbriefoutlinesoftheirvariouspotentialpurposes)areatthecentreofthetechnologicalassessmentandthefindingspresentedinthispaper.8

Inadditiontotheassessmentoftheaforemen-tionedtechnologies,thispaperandthesubse-quentoneonCWCareintendedasaproof-of-conceptforthetechnology-assessmentapproach(asexplainedinthenextsection)anditsutilityinaidingreflectiononrelevanttechnologieswithinthecontextofcounter-diversionofconventionalweaponsandtheircomponents.

Table1:Longlistoftechnologiesandtheirpurposes

Potentialpurpose(s)

Technology

Accountabi-lity

Trackingandtracing

Item-level

identifica-

tion

Inventoryandstorage

Anti-

tampering

Identifica-

tionand

certification

(End-use)monitoring

Data

capture/recording

Data

analysis

2Dcodes

√

√

√

√

Chemicalencoding

√

√

√

√

DNAcoding

√

√

√

√

Document

authentication

√

Electronicseals(e-seals)

√

GNSSandmobiletracking

√

Near-field

communication(NFC)

√

√

√

√

Radio-frequencyidentification

(RFID)

√

√

√

√

√

Sensors?

√

√

√

InternetofThings(IoT)

√

√

DistributedLedger

Technology(DLT)

√

√

√

Bigdataanalysis?

√

NaturalLanguageProcessing(NLP)?

√

Computervision?

√

?Thewideexistingrangeofsensorsincludes,e.g.,cameras,radars,thermalimaging,x-rayscanners,gasindicators,acousticsensors,time-temperatureindicators,RFID,etc.?Thesearesubsetsofartificialintelligence(AI).

6

ANALYSIS

7

Summaryofkeyfindingsfromphase1ofProjectD-TECT

FindingsfromD-TECT’sfirstphasedemonstratethattakinganeeds-drivenandcontext-sensitiveapproachtotheapplicationoftechnologyforcounter-diversioniscrucial.6Inotherwords,theselectionoftechnologyshouldnotbedrivenbyitsmereavailability.

Athree-stepframeworkemergedfromthefirstphaseoftheresearch(seeFigure1).Thefirststepfocusesonunderstandingtherisksofdiversion,whicharetailoredtoeachspecifictypeofconven-tionalweaponandthecontextinwhichitoper-ates.Thesecondstepexaminestheexistingtechnologiesthatcouldhelppreventorovercometheidentifiedriskorrisks.Thethirdandfinalstepassessestheidentifiedtechnologiesaccording

tothecontextsinwhichtheyaretobeappliedandalsoagainstselectedattributesthatthetechnolo-giesshouldpossess.

Phase1ofProjectD-TECTalsoidentifiedaninitiallonglistoftechnologies(seeFigure2)thatcouldpossiblyberelevantinstrengtheningcounter-di-versioneffortsininternationalarmstransfersofconventionalweaponsandrelatedcomponents.Theidentificationofthesetechnologieswasguidedbytheirpotentialrelevanceandtheirabilitytocounterdiversion.Specifically,thesetechnologieswereselectedbecausetheyareeither(a)usedtocounterthediversionofweaponsbutremainlimitedintheiruseandarenotwide-spread;or(b)usedintheciviliancommercialrealmtoincreasetheintegrityandsecurityofsupplychainsbuthavenotbeenusedforsensitivemilitaryorsecurityitems.

Figure1:Frameworktoidentifyandassesstechnologiestocounterthediversionofconventionalweaponsandrelatedcomponents

Step1

Specifyingtheaimofusingtechnologyandmappingitem-specificrisksofdiversion.

Step2

Identifyingpotentialtechnologieswhichcouldhelpaddresstheaim(s)andrisk(s)identi-fiedinStep1.

Step3

Analysingthecontextinwhichtechnologiesaretobeimplemented.

Figure2:Overviewoftechnologies

Morecomplextechnologies

Lesscomplextechnologies

?2Dcodes

?Chemicalcoding

?DNAcoding

?Document

authentication

?Electronicseals(eSeals)

?Globalnavigation

satellitesystem(GNSS)andmobiletracking

?Nearfieldcommunication(NFC)

?Radio-frequency

identification(RFID)

?Sensors

?InternetofThings(IoT)

?DistributedledgerTechnology(DLT)

?Bigdataanalysis(AI)

?NaturalLanguage

Processing(NLP)(AI)

?Computervision(AI)

8

ANALYSIS

Methodology

ProjectD-TECTadaptedanexistingmethodologytoframetheassessmentofthelonglistoftechnol-ogies:theSystematicTechnologyReconnaissance,EvaluationandAdoptionMethod(STREAM).9Asthenameindicates,thisapproachassessestherelevanceoftechnologiesandthepossibilitiesoftheiradoptiontofulfilaspecificpurpose.Thismethodologycomprisesfivesteps:

1.framingoftheissue;

2.identificationoftechnologies;

3.characterisationoftheissue;

4.comparisonofoptions;and

5.decision.

Steps1and2werethefocusofthefirstphaseoftheproject,whilethisphasefocusesonsteps3and4.10Specifically,step3involvesthefollowingelements:

1.assessmentofthepotentialimpactoftheidentifiedtechnologiesoncounteringdiversion;

2.assessmentofthepotentialbarrierstotheimplementationofthesetechnologies;and

3.assessmentofthecostsrelatedtotheimplementationofthesetechnologies.

Step4consistsofacomparisonofthetechnologiesbasedontheassessmentemergingfromstep3.

Asequentialexploratorydesignwasusedtocollectthedata.Theprojectteamusedsurveystocollectprimarilyquantitativedata,whichwasthenusedinonlineexpertworkshops.TherewasasurveyandanassociatedworkshopsforeachofthreedifferentstagesinthetypicallifecycleofSALWorCWC:pre-export,transferandpost-delivery.TheselectionanddefinitionofthesestagesisfurtherdiscussedinSection2.

Aheadofeachworkshop,allworkshoppartici-pantswereinvitedtocompleteanonlinesurvey.Thesurveysconsistedoftwoparts.Inthefirst

part,respondentswereaskedtoassessthetech-nologies’perceivedpositiveimpactoncoun-ter-diversioneffortsforSALWandforCWC.Thesecondpartfocusedonthepotentialbarrierstothesuccessfulimplementationofthesetechnolo-gies,againwithseparateassessmentsforSALWandCWC.Duringtheworkshops,whichtookplaceonline,thesurveyfindingswerepresentedanddiscussed,allowingtheparticipantstoelaborateontheirreasoningbehindtheirresponsesandtoaddfurtherinsightsontheapplicationoftech-nologytocounter-diversionefforts.

Participantscamefromabroadvarietyofback-groundsincludingnationaltransfercontrol(licensing)authorities,customsandbordercontrolagencies,UnitedNationsentities(e.g.,theOfficeonDrugsandCrime,theOfficeforDisarmamentAffairs),otherinternationalorganisations(e.g.,theWorldCustomsOrganization),regionalorgan-isations(e.g.,theOrganizationofAmericanStates),theprivatesector,andresearchorganisa-tions.Participantswerenotselectedfortheirexpertiseorknowledgeonthetechnologiesperse,butratherfortheirexperienceininternationaltradeflows,armstransfercontrols,andcoun-teringthediversionofconventionalweaponsandtheircomponents.11Therewasadifferentgroupofparticipantsineachworkshop,althoughsomeexpertsdidtakepartinseveralworkshopsduetoexpertiseindifferentstages.Table2providesanoverviewofthedata-collectionapproachandparticipationrates.

Inaddition,severalsemi-structuredinterviewswereconductedthroughouttheproject.Relevantinsightsfromtheseinterviews,aswellasconclu-sionsdrawnfromaliteratureanalysis,areusedinthispapertofurthersubstantiateinsightsfromthesurveysandtheworkshopdiscussions.

Threekeylimitationsshouldbenoted.First,thefindingsarebasedononlyarelativelysmallnumberofsurveyrespondentsandworkshopparticipants,whoformonlyasmallsubsectionofthewidercommunityinvolvedincounter-diver-

9

Table2:Overviewofthedata-collectionapproachforSALW-specificinputs

Workshop

Lifecyclestage

Itemtypes12

Numberof

surveyrespon-

dents

Numberof

workshop

participants13

Date

1

Pre-export

SALWandCWC

17

17

26February2024

2

Transfer

SALWandCWC

12

18

14March2024

3

Post-delivery

SALW

17

21

26March2024

sionofSALW.Second,whiletheprojectteamsoughttoensureawide-rangingrepresentationofperspectivesfromtheparticipantsintermsofbackground,expertiseandgeographicalrepresentation,mostoftheinputsnonethelessemergedfromentitiesandindividualsfromtheWesternEuropeanandOtherStatesregionalgroup.Third,participantsdifferedintermsoftheirlevelsofknowledgeandunderstandingofeachofthetechnologies,aswellasthedifferenttypesofneeds,resourcesandexpectationstheyconsideredwhenparticipatingintheresearch.Thefindingspresentedbelowhavebeenaggregated,andsodonotallowforsuchdifferencestoemerge;thus,theymaynotalwaysbereflectiveofeachindi-vidualresponse.Overall,thefindingsshouldbeseenasillustrativeratherthanauthoritativeandshouldnotbegeneralisedorextrapolatedbeyondtheconstraintsofthisstudy.Despitetheselimita-tions,however,itishopedthatthefindingsandconclusionscannonethelessofferusefulinsightsintotheapplicationoftechnologytocounter-di-versioneffortsandcanpavethewayforfurtherresearchandactioninthisarea.

Reportstructure

Section2presentstheoverallassessmentofthetechnologieswhichcouldbeusedtocounterthediversionofSALW,basedonthesurveyinputsandworkshopdiscussions.Section3thenprovidesanoverviewofkeysystemicbarrierswhichemergedwhendiscussingtheapplicationoftechnologiestocounter-diversionefforts.Italsoproposespossibleavenuestomitigateorovercomethesebarriers.

Section4concludesthereportwithreflectionsonthekeyfindingsontheimplementationoftech-nologytoaidinthecounter-diversionofSALW.

Section2-Assessingthetechnologies

Thissectionpresentsthemainfindingsdrawnfromthesurveysandworkshopdiscussions.Itprovidesanoverviewoftheparticipants’inputsregardingthepossibleimpactoftechnologiesoncounter-diversionofSALW,andthepossiblebarriersthatthoseseekingtoimplementthesetechnologiesmightface.Beforethefindingsarepresented,theapproachusedtoelicitthemisbrieflyexplained.

Risksandmethodsofdiversiondifferaccordingtothetypeofitem,thecontextandlocation,andthestageofthesupplychainorlifecycle.14Consciousofthesedifferences,eachworkshopanditsasso-ciatedsurveyfocusedononeofthreedifferentstagesofthelifecycle,inadditiontothetwosepa-ratetypesofitems(SALWandCWC).Withinthecontextofthisresearch,thestagesaredefinedasfollows:

1.Pre-export:Thisisthestagewhennationallicensingauthoritiesconsideranapplica-tionforalicenceforaninternationaltransferofSALW–i.e.,post-manufacturebutpre-shipmentofSALW.Methodsofdiversionatthepre-exportstageincludeunauthorisedproduction,illicitremovalor

10

ANALYSIS

theft,useofforgeddocuments,anduseofshellorfrontcompanieswithaviewtohidetheeffectiveenduserorenduse.Oneofthekeyelementsofthisstageisariskassessmentoftheproposedtransfer,whichwillincludeanassessmentofthepotentialfordiversionoftheSALW.Theresultoftheassessmentwillinformthegovernment’sdecisionwhethertoauthoriseordenytheinternationaltransfer.

2.Transfer:ThisstageisthetransportationofSALW(e.g.,byland,airorsea)fromthecountryoforigintotheircountryofdesti-nation(possiblyviadifferenttransitcoun-tries),includingtheirimportintotherecipientcountry.Methodsofdiversionduringthisstageincludeuseoffakedocu-mentation,deliberatemisdescriptionofthegoods,reroutingofthegoodsattransithubs,andsmugglingortheft.

3.Post-delivery:Thisreferstothepost-ship-mentverification