2025年全球投資展望

2025

Global

Outlook

Buildingthetransformation

BlackRock

Investment

BlackROCK.

Institute

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BIIM1224U/M-4071082-1/18

2025GlobalOutlook

Introduction

Twiceayear,BlackRock’sseniorportfoliomanagersandinvestmentexecutivesgatherfortwodaystodebatetheoutlookforeconomiesandmarkets–anditsimplicationsforportfolios.TheGlobalOutlookistheculminationofthatdebateanddiscussion.

Thatdebateinformsourmacroframing:wehavemoreconvictionweareinaveryunusualenvironment.Thisisnotatypicalbusinesscycle–theworldisundergoinganeconomictransformationdrivenbymegaforces.Throughthislens,weassesstheinvestment

opportunitiesandrisksunfoldingtoday–andcraftthethemesofthisoutlook.

Ourthreethemesarecenteredonthreeinterconnectingideas.First,thatcapitalmarkets,includingprivatemarkets,arepivotalin

buildingthetransformationweseeahead.Second,thatinvestingitselfneedsarethinkinthisunusualenvironmentoftransformation.AndastheAIthemebroadensoutandsupportsU.S.corporatestrength,wekeepapro-riskstance.

Authors

JeanBoivin

Head—BlackRock

InvestmentInstitute

EdFishwick

HeadofRiskand

QuantitativeAnalysis–BlackRock

Executivesponsors

RobKapito

President–BlackRock

WeiLi

GlobalChief

InvestmentStrategist—BlackRockInvestment

Institute

VivekPaul

GlobalHeadofPortfolioResearch—

BlackRockInvestmentInstitute

PhilippHildebrand

ViceChairman–BlackRock

RickRieder

Headof

FundamentalFixedIncome–

BlackRock

RaffaeleSavi

GlobalHeadofSystematic–

BlackRock

RichKushel

Head–BlackRockPortfolio

ManagementGroup

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BIIM1224U/M-4071082-2/18

Summary

Contents

Introduction2

Summary3

Investmentenvironment4-6

Learningaboutthetrend4

Checksand(im)balances5

What2024saysabout20256

Evolvingourscenarios7

Themes8-10

Financingthefuture8

Rethinkinginvesting9

Stayingpro-risk10

Focus11-14

TrackingAI’sevolution11

Infrastructureforthelongterm12

Intensifyingfragmentation13

Newdiversifiersneeded14

Bigcalls15

Granularviews16

Wehavearguedsince2020thatwearenotinabusinesscycle.Historicaltrendsarebeingpermanentlybrokeninrealtimeasmegaforces,liketheriseof

artificialintelligence(AI),transformeconomies.Theongoingoutsizedresponseoflong-termassetstoshort-termnewsshowshowunusualthisenvironmentis.Westayrisk-onaswelookfortransformationbeneficiaries-andgofurther

overweightU.S.stocksastheAIthemebroadensout.Wehavemoreconvictioninflationandinterestrateswillstayabovepre-pandemiclevels.

Megaforces

arereshapingeconomiesandtheir

long-termtrajectories–it’snolongerabout

short-termfluctuationsinactivityleadingto

expansionorrecession.2024hasreinforcedourviewthatwearenotinabusinesscycle:AIhas

beenamajormarketdriver,inflationfellwithoutagrowthslowdownandtypicalrecessionsignals

failed.Volatilitysurgedandnarrativesflipfloppedasmarketskeptviewingnewdatathrougha

businesscyclelens,notoneoftransformation.

Asweheadinto2025,somecountrieshavenew

leaderswithamandateforpoliticalandeconomicchange.Thatcouldseepolicymakerspursuing

measuresthataddtovolatilityratherthan

stability.Financialmarketsmayworktoreinin

anypolicyextremes,suchaswithfiscalpolicy.Yetwethinktherewillbefewercheckswhenstocks

arerunningup,creatingthepotentialforriskappetitetoturnfrothy.

Thisfundamentallydifferentlandscapeupendsthenatureofinvesting,inourview.Wethink

investorscanfindopportunitiesbytappingintothewavesoftransformationweseeaheadintherealeconomy,withAIandthelow-carbon

transitionrequiringinvestmentpotentiallyonparwiththeIndustrialRevolution.That’swhyourfirstthemeisfinancingthefuture.Weseecapital

marketsplayingavitalroleasthesemegaforcesdriveabroadinfrastructurebuildout.

Wethinkinvestorsshouldfocusmoreonthemesandlessonbroadassetclassesasmegaforces

reshapewholeeconomies.Inotherwords,theunit

ofanalysisforthinkingaboutreturnsischanging–andthatcallsforrethinkinginvesting,our

secondtheme.Onekeyconclusion:withnostablelong-termtrendandanever-evolvingoutlook,

investorsmaywanttoreconsiderwhataneutralassetallocationisandputmoreweighton

tacticalviewssinceinvestorscannotrelyon

eventualconvergencebacktohistoricaltrends.

Beingmoredynamicwithportfoliosandgetting

granularwithviewsarebothessential,inourview.

Wheredoesthatleaveus?Wearestayingpro-risk,ourthirdtheme.WeseetheU.S.stillstandingout

versusotherdevelopedmarketsthanksto

strongergrowthanditsabilitytobettercapitalizeonmegaforces.WeupouroverweighttoU.S.

equitiesandseetheAIthemebroadeningout.Wedon’tthinkpriceyU.S.equityvaluationsalonewilltriggeranear-termreassessment.Butweare

readytoadjustifmarketsbecomeoverexuberant.Weareunderweightlong-termU.S.Treasuriesonbothatacticalandstrategichorizon–andweseeriskstoourupbeatviewfromanyspikeinlong-

termbondyields.Weseeprivatemarketsasanimportantwaytoallocatetomegaforcesandhaveturnedmorepositiveoninfrastructure

equityonastrategichorizon.

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BIIM1224U/M-4071082-3/18

Investmentenvironment

Learningaboutthetrend

Fordecades,economiesfollowedstable,long-termtrends.Investorscouldfocusalmostentirelyon

navigatinganytemporary

deviationsaroundthosetrends.

Growthwouldeventuallyconvergebacktowarditstrend.Thathas

beenafoundationaltenetofportfolioconstruction.

Wethinktheenvironmentisvery

differentnow.Economiesare

undergoingatransformationthatcouldkeepshiftingthelong-termtrend,makingawiderangeofverydifferentoutcomespossible.See

thechart.What’sdrivingeconomicgrowthmaylookverydifferent.

Why?Megaforcescould

fundamentallyreshapeeconomies.

TakeAI:itmaydomorethan

improveefficiencyinspecifictasksandcouldeventuallyacceleratetheprocessofgeneratingnewideas

anddiscoveries–withfar-reachingimplicationsforgrowthandthe

compositionoftheeconomy.Suchatransformationcouldsurpassthe

IndustrialRevolution

initsbreadthandimpact.

Similarly,deepeninggeopoliticalfragmentationisupending

establishedtradeflowsandsupplychains.Newtradingblocsand

protectionistpoliciescould

reconfigurehoweconomiesoperate,potentiallyreducingtradeefficiency.

Theenergytransition–intertwinedwithmegaforceslikeAIand

geopoliticalfragmentation–isalsospurringmajorinnovationand

investment.Andthedigitizationof

financeistransforminghow

householdsandbusinessesmanagecash,borrow,transactandinvest.

Agingpopulations

constrainlaborsupply.BarringanyAI-driven

productivitygains,thatcouldlimithowmucheconomiescanproduceandgrow.Ariseinimmigrationhasbluntedthisimpactinsome

countries,butlikelyonlytemporarily

–notablyintheU.S.

Allthisiswhywethinkincoming

dataaren’taboutabusinesscycle

butshowhowthetrendischanging.Surprisescanshowpermanenttrendchanges–andentirelynew

economictrajectories.Seethechart.

Anever-changingtrend

Activity

HypotheticalevolutionofU.S.

GDP

Withabaseline

Withoutabaseline

Charttakeaway:Megaforcesarereshapingtheglobaleconomy-andleadingtoawidearrayofpotentialoutcomes.Thisisabreakfromthepre-pandemicerawhenwesawonlysmalldeviations

aroundasteadycentraltrend.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,December2024.Note:Thechartsshowanillustrationofhoweconomicoutputcouldevolve-thechartontheleftandtoprightassumethereisonesinglecentraltrendforgrowthandthechartonthebottomrightassumesthatthereisnotonesinglecentraltrendforgrowth,butmanydifferenttrendspossible.

EconomiesarebeingtransformedbymegaforcessuchastheriseofAI,

geopoliticalfragmentationandagingsocieties.Weseelong-termeconomictrendsbeingreshapedbythemnow.

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BIIM1224U/M-4071082-4/18

Investmentenvironment

Checksand(im)balances

2024wasamajorelectionyearandapunishingoneforincumbents.

Votersexpressedfrustration,mostnotablyaboutthehighercostof

livingafterthepandemicbutalsoissueslikeimmigrationandbordersecurity.Severalcountrieshave

nowseeneitherachangein

governmentortheerosionofruling

partysupport.Thedesirefor

politicalandeconomicchangecouldremainadrivingforcein2025.

Manyleadersacrossdeveloped

economiesareconstrained–by

inflation,lowpoliticalsupportand,outsidetheU.S.,lackofgrowth.Weexpectasharpfocusonnational

economicandsecuritypriorities,

potentiallyattheexpenseofothers.Wecouldalsoseegreatershort-

termismasmorefrequenttransfersofpowercompelgovernmentsto

movequicklytoimplement

agendas.Inotherwords,

policymakingcoulditselfbecomeasourceofdisruption–inanalready

morefragileworldandamid

heightenedstrategiccompetitionbetweentheU.S.andChina.

TheU.S.isacaseinpoint.President-

electDonaldTrumppromisedvotersbigpolicychange.Republican

controlofbothCongressandthe

presidencymeanshehasgreater

abilitytoimplementmuchofhis

agenda.Marketsviewsomeofhis

proposedpolicyasapositivenear

term–liketaxcuts,deregulation

andsupportfortraditionalenergy.Otherslessso,includingcurbsin

immigrationandawiderangeof

tariffsthat–ifimplemented–couldreinforcegeopoliticalfragmentationandaddtoinflation.Seethechart.

Lessgovernmentemphasison

macrostabilizingpolicies–like

fiscalframeworksandinflation

targets–wouldleadtomore

instancesoffinancialmarketsto

enforcingdiscipline.Forexample,risingbondyieldscouldtemper

loosefiscalpolicy.Andriskasset

selloffscouldforceabout-turnsonpoliciesseenasdamaginggrowth.

Yetwethinkthiscouldtipriskassetstowardrun-ups.Forexample,hopesoffinancialderegulationarestirringanimalspirits.Thisisgoodnewsfornow–butrisksmarketfrothlater.

Broadeningprotectionism

Traderestrictions,2014-2023

GoodsInvestmentServices

Traderestrictions

3000

2000

1000

0

20142016201820202022

Charttakeaway:Traderestrictionsaroundtheglobehaveshotupinrecentyearsaspost-WorldWarTwoglobalizationgiveswaytorisingprotectionism.

Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,IMF,(orwiththedatafrom),December2024.Notes:Thechartshowsthenumberofunilateralnon-liberalizingtradeinterventions(as

classifiedby)takenbycountriesaroundtheworld.

Weseemacropolicybecominga

potentialsourceofdisruption.Thatcouldleadtomoreinstanceof

marketsenforcingdiscipline.

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BIIM1224U/M-4071082-5/18

Investmentenvironment

What2024saysabout2025

Itonlytakesalookbackat2024toseewhytryingtooverlayatypicalbusinesscycleonincomingU.S.

datacanbemisleadingwhenstructuralforcesareatplay.

Ifthiswereatypicalcycle,U.S.growthshouldhaveslowedastighterfinancialconditions

broughtdowninflation.Wehaven’tseenthat.Inflationhaseased,butgrowthhasnot.Infact,financial

conditionshaveloosenedsincelate2022–wellbeforetheFedstartedcuttingpolicyrates–asU.S.equitiessurged.

Sowhydidinflationcool?Inourview,otherbiggerforcesdidthework:thepost-pandemic

normalizationofthegoodsand

labormarkets,andanunexpected

riseinimmigration.The

immigrationboosttothelabor

forcealsoexplainedthebriefriseintheU.S.unemploymentrate.Itwasnotthetypicalindicatorof

faltering

growth

asmarketsoriginallyinterpretedit.

Wethinkthisisahelpfullessontotakeinto2025asmarketsremainpronetomakingthesamemistake.

Marketshavealsobeenmore

sensitivetodatasurprisesthanin

thepast,withevenlong-termassetshavingoutsizedreactions.Seethe

chart.Thatreinforcesvolatility.

So,whatdoesthisimplyfor2025?

WeseepersistentU.S.inflation

pressures,fromrisinggeopolitical

fragmentationplusbigspendingontheAIbuildoutandthelow-carbontransition.Wealsothinkanaging

workforcecouldstarttobiteas

immigrationslows,likelykeeping

wagegrowthtoohighforinflationtofallbacktotheFed’s2%target.

Wedon’tthinktheFedisembarkingonatypicalcuttingcycle.Wethinkitwillcutfurtherin2025,andgrowthwillcoolalittle,butwithinflation

stillabovetargettheFedwon’thaveroomtocutmuchpast4%,leavingrateswellabovepre-pandemic

levels.Evenwithpersistentbudgetdeficits,stickyinflationandgreaterbondmarketvolatility,investorsarenotdemandingmuchcompensationyetfortheriskofholdinglong-termgovernmentbonds.Wethinkthat

willchangeandseelong-termU.S.Treasuryyieldsrising.

Sensitivetosurprises

SensitivityofU.S.10-yearyieldtoeconomicsurprises,2003-2024

Sensitivity

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

-0.1

-0.220032008201320182023

Charttakeaway:Wehaveseenheightenedmarketsensitivitytoeconomicdatasurprises.Wethinkthisreflectsinvestorsviewingnewinformationthroughatypicalbusinesscyclelens,ratherthaninthecontextofatransformationreshapingtheeconomy.

Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,withdatafrom

LSEGDatastream,December2024.Notes:ThelineshowshowsensitivetheU.S.10-yearTreasuryyieldistoeconomicsurprises,usingregressionanalysistoestimatetherelationshipbetweenU.S.10-yearTreasury

yieldsandtheCitiEconomicsSurpriseIndexoverarollingsix-monthwindow.Thisisonlyanestimateoftherelationshipbetweenthe10-yearTreasuryyieldandeconomicsurprises.

Thisisnotabusinesscycle,butaseriesofstructuralshifts,inourview.

Interpretingincomingdatainthislightwillagainbekeyin2025.

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BIIM1224U/M-4071082-6/18

Scenarios

Evolvingournear-termscenarios

Inthesecondhalfof2024,wehaveseen

sharpvolatilityasmarketsshiftedquicklytopriceindifferentscenarios.Stockshitall-

timehighsledbymegacaptechas

investorsembracedaviewsimilartoour

concentratedAIscenariolaidoutinour

MidyearOutlook

.Thatthengavewaytoa

rescuedhardlandingscenariowheredeepFedratecutswerepricedin.Thisconfirmedthatatypicalbusinesscyclelensisnotthewaytoviewincominginformation.We

leanedagainstthepricingofsharpFedratecutsasifitwererespondingtodownturnsasinthepast,andthemarketnowsees

Willgrowth

be

structurallyweakerthanbeforethe

pandemic?

policyratesstayinghigherforlongerinthisenvironment.Wethinkthisreflectshow

investorsaregrapplingwithlearningaboutthetrend.

WeworkedwithportfoliomanagersacrossBlackRocktoevolveourscenariosfor2025givenwhatwehavelearned.Thenew

scenariosareU.S.corporatestrengthand

easingsupplyconstraints.Seeourscenariomap.ThisrecognizesthatU.S.corporate

strengthgoesbeyondtheAItheme.

WethinkthatU.S.corporatestrengthisthemostlikelyscenariotoplayoutoverthenext

six-to-12monthsas

earningsgrowth

broadens

,eveniftheeconomyslows

slightly.Thishighlightstheresilienceofcorporateearningsevenifinterestratesstayhigher.

AreAIvaluations

Highrates,hardlanding

Stickyinflationrulesoutratecuts,andstrongdemandcouldtriggerfurtherhikes.Growth

slowssharply.AIvaluationshithard.

aheadoffundamentals?

Yes

Willoverallyieldsbehigherthancurrentmarketpricing?

Yes

U.S.corporatestrength

U.S.growthmoderates,butcorporateprofitsremainstrong.TheAI-ledrallybroadensoutandU.S.stocksoutperform

No

Yes

Subduedgrowth,stubborninflation

Growthslowstoalowertrendpace,inflationisstickyabovetargetandpolicyratesstay

higher.

No

Easingsupplyconstraintsboostgrowth

Upsidegrowthsurprisefromlaborand/or

productivitygainsfromAIadoption.Inflationeases,policyratesarecutsharply.

No

No

Willtherebearecessioninthenext12months?

Rescuedhardlanding

Ratehikesoverwhelmabroad-basedAI-

drivengrowthboost.Inflationfallsbelow

target.Centralbanksdeliverdeepratecuts.

Yes

U.S.returns

Stocks

Bonds

Theopinionsexpressedaresubjecttochangeatanytimeduetochangesinmarketoreconomicconditions.Thismaterialrepresentsanassessmentofthemarketenvironmentataspecifictimeandisnotintendedtobeaforecastoffutureeventsoraguaranteeoffutureresults.Sources:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,December2024.Notes:Ourfivescenariosherecanberepresentedasnodesondifferentpathways.ThearrowsindicateourexpectationforU.S.equityandTreasuryreturnsineachscenario,astwo

examples.Twoarrowsrepresentsthatalargerrelativemoveisexpectedinthisscenariothanasinglearrow.WeonlyshowU.S.equitiesandTreasuriesbuthaverunthisanalysisacrossseveralassetclasses.Forillustrativepurposesonly.

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BIIM1224U/M-4071082-7/18

Theme1

Financingthefuture

We’velaidouthowtoday’s

investmentenvironmentisoneof

majortransformation–andonethatputsgreateronusonmarketsto

enforcediscipline.Thismakes

capitalmarketscoretothebuildingofthistransformation.

Sizablecapitalwillbeneededasthetransformationunfolds,andthat

investmentishappeningnow.Majortechcompaniesare

startingtorival

theU.S.governmentonresearch

anddevelopmentspending.Butit’snotjustabouttheriseofAIanditsbuildoutviadatacenters.Meeting

growingenergydemand(thinksolarfarms,powergrids,oilandgas)willgenerateinvestmentofUS$3.5

trillionperyearthisdecade,

accordingtotheBlackRock

InvestmentInstituteTransitionScenario.Andgovernmentsarelimitedinhowmuchtheycansupportsuchinvestmentandinfrastructureupgrades.

Weseecapitalmarketsdeepening–includinginemergingmarkets–tohelpchannelmoneyseekingnew

opportunitiesandsourcesofreturn.

Publicmarketshavebenefittedso

far,hostingcompaniesthathavealreadybenefittedfromthe

transformationbycapturingnewrevenuepools,notablyinAI.

Wealsoseeprivatemarketsplayingapivotalrole,allowingportfoliostogainuniqueexposuretothe

transformationaspublicmarkets

canonlyfundsomeofit.For

example,privatemarketscanofferexposuretoearly-stagegrowth

companiesdrivingAIadoptionandtovitalinfrastructureprojects.We

thinkthe

futureoffinance

–amegaforceonitsown–willbeshapedbynon-banklendersincreasingly

fundingsuchlarge-scaleprojects.Thishighlightswhyprivatemarketassetsundermanagementare

expectedtoroughlydoubleby2029from2023levels,Preqindatashow.Seethechart.

Wethinkthisshowshowfinanceitselfischangingandinnovatingrapidlyasactivitiesthatwere

previouslybundledtogetherin

singleinstitutions,likebanks,areunbundled.

Ontherise

Privatemarketassetsundermanagement,2015-2029

Trillion(USD)

$25

$20

$15

$10

$5

$0

Preqinforecast

20152017201920212023202520272029

VenturecapitalInfrastructure

Privatedebt

PrivateequityRealestate

Charttakeaway:Privateassetshavebecomeagrowingshareoffinancialmarkets.Weseeprivatemarketsplayingacriticalroleinthetransformationahead–stickingtopublicmarketsdoesn’t

fullycapturethisbroadeningopportunityset,inourview.

Forwardlookingestimatesmaynotcometopass.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,Preqin,December2024.Notes:Thechartshowsthetotalassetsundermanagementinprivatemarketfundswithforecasts

from2024onwardsinPreqin’s“FutureofAlternatives2029”report.

Investmentimplications

?Sizablecapitalwillbeneededasthe

transformationunfolds,andthatinvestmentishappeningnow.

?Wethinkprivatemarketswillplayavitalroleinfinancingthewavesoftransformation.

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BIIM1224U/M-4071082-8/18

Theme2

Rethinkinginvesting

Transformationraisesquestions

abouthowtobuildportfolios.An

ever-changingoutlookcallsforanever-evolvingportfolio.Itcallsintoquestionmanylong-heldinvestingprinciples,includingtheideaofaneutral“benchmark”portfoliolikethetraditional60/40portfoliomixofstocksandbonds.

Wethinkinvestorsshouldbroadenoutwheretheyinvest.Thatmay

includeprivatemarkets,notably

privatecreditandinfrastructure,asoutlinedonthepreviouspage.Andwethinkinvestorsshouldrelylessonbroadassetclassesandseek

outthematicopportunitiesshapedbythestructuralshifts

transformingeconomiesand

sectors,liketheriseofAI.Seepage11.

Thismakesgettinggranularwith

viewskey,suchasinvestingat

companyratherthanregionallevelinplaceslikeEurope.That’s

especiallytrueasthe

transformationcouldchangetheeconomy’smakeup,reconfiguringentireindustries.

Financialmarketsthemselvesare

alsobeingreshapedassomesectors

growrapidlyandothersfade,

changingthecompositionof

benchmarkindexes.TheS&P500looksverydifferentfromjustfiveyearsago,withfarmore

concentration.Seethechart.

Anotherchangetotraditional

portfolioconstruction?Wethink

moreweightshouldbeputon

tacticalviewsnow.Inthepast,whenreturnsfluctuatedaroundastable

long-termtrend,itmadesensetoputahighshareofaportfolio’srisk

budgetintolong-termallocationstosmoothoutthosefluctuations.Now,nosingleportfoliowilllikelywork

acrossallscenariosovertime.Theupshot:Investorswillneedtotakeadynamicapproach.Wethinkactivestrategiesandinvestmentexpertisecanprovideanadvantageinthis

environment.

Morebroadly,today’sfinancial

plumbingmayneedaredesignto

enableallthis.Someisalready

happening,withnewinnovativetoolsbecomingmorewidelyavailable.

Ever-biggershare

“Magnificent7”marketcapasashareoftheS&P500,1995-2024

30%

25%

20%

Share

10%

5%

0%

15%

199520002005201020152020

Charttakeaway:The“magnificent7”ofmostlymegacaptech

sharesnowdominatetheS&P500,makingupalmostathirdoftheindex’smarketcapitalization.Thisshowshowquicklyeconomies

andmarketscanbetransformedinthisenvironment.

Pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatoroffutureresults.Itisnotpossibletoinvestinanindex.Indexesare

unmanagedandperformancedoesnotaccountforfees.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,withdatafromLSEGDatastream,December2024.Notes:Thechartshowsthecombinedmarketcapitalization(cap)ofthe

‘magnificent7’stocks(Amazon,Apple,Google,Meta,Microsoft,NvidiaandTesla)asashareoftheS&P500’stotalmarketcap.Thechartsumsupthemarketcapofeachstockastheywentpublic,capturingAmazonfrom1997onwards,Nvidiafrom1999,Googlefrom2004,Teslafrom2010andMetafrom2012.

Investmentimplications

?Wethinkinvestorsshouldfocusmoreonthemesandlessonbroadassetclasses.

?Greatervolatilitypointstoaneedtobemoredynamicwithportfolioallocations.

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BIIM1224U/M-4071082-9/18

Theme3

Stayingpro-risk

Wheredoesallthisle