2024年秋季汽車行業(yè)洞察報(bào)告（英文版）-Kroll

AutomotiveIndustry

INDUSTRYINSIGHTS

FALL2024

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IndustryHighlights

Overview

Globally,autosalesinthefirsthalfof2024sloweddowncomparedtotherapidreboundseenin2023.Salesvolumesin2024arenowexpectedtoreach91.4millionunits,justa1.8%increaseoverthe89.8millionunitssoldin2023.Saleshaveslowedgloballyduetoweakercustomerdemand,mixedeconomicconditionsandhigherinterestrates.1

ThroughJune,U.S.autosalesgrew2.1%yearoveryear(YoY)asconsumerdemandslowed.1Forthefullyear2024,salesareforecasttoreach15.9millionunits.2Electrifiedvehicles(EVs)continuetogainmarketshareintheU.S.,withbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)nowaccountingforover8%ofnewcarsalesandallEVsaccountingforover20%ofnewcarsales.3

Chineseautosalesroseto18.9millionunitsintheyear-to-date(YTD)periodthroughAugust2024,up3.5%from2023.Chineseproductionwasupnearly5%YoY,fueledbystrongdomesticdemandandgrowingexports.4TheEVmarketinChinacontinuestoaccelerate.Helpedbytherecentgrowthofplug-inhybridelectricvehicle(PHEV)sales,overhalfofallnewcarssoldinChinaarenowelectrified.5

InEurope,vehiclesaleshavestagnatedduetolowerdemand,highcarprices,highinterestrates,andtheendingofcertainEVsubsidies.6Mostmajormarketsareexpectingnear-flatresultsforthefullyearcomparedto2023.7AlthoughBEVshavelostsomemarketshare,anincreaseinhybridsaleshasdriventheYTDmarketshareofallEVsover50%.8

M&Aactivityintheautomotivesectorcontinueditsdeclinein2024,withfewerthan100transactionsclosedinthethirdquarterof2024.Thetotalnumberofcloseddealsthroughthethirdquarterof2024wasdown55%YoY.8

Publiccompanyequityperformanceinselectedautomotiveindexeswasmixedthroughthefirstthreequartersof2024,withonlytheAutomotiveMobilityindexbeatingtheS&P500.TheAutomotiveOriginalEquipmentManufacturers(OEMs)andAutomotiveSuppliersindicesendedtheperiodinnegativeterritory.8

2

xecurtivesummary

?xecurtivesummary?xcutivesummaryxecutivesummary

ExecutiveSummary

GlobalLightVehicleSalesGrowthSlowedintheFirstHalfof20241

GlobalAutoSalesExpectedtoGrowModestlyin2024and20251

U.S.ElectrifiedVehicleMarketShareHits20%inAugust3

AutonomousVehicleCapabilitiesExpectedtoAccelerateinComingYears9

AutomotiveM&AActivityRemainsWeakin20248

3

3

UnitsinMillions

Growth

95.394.3

100.0

15%

10%

80.0

5%

60.0

0%

40.0

-5%

20.0

-10%

-15%

0.0

GlobalAutoSalesTrends

GlobalVehicleSales

Globalvehiclesalesareslowingin2024afterastrongreboundin2023.Mostmajormarketssawmodestgrowthinthefirsthalfof2024,butsalesareexpectedtoslowthroughthesecondhalfoftheyearduetoweakerconsumerdemand,toughereconomicenvironments,elevatedinterestratesandpoliticaluncertainty.1

TheshifttoEVsin2024hasnothappenedasfastaspreviouslyexpectedintheU.S.,1butEVscontinuetogainrapidmarketshare.3HigherpricesandtheendingofcertainsubsidiesforEVshascontributedtothedecelerationofadoptioninEuropeanmarkets.6Meanwhile,ChineseEVmarketsharecontinuestoincrease,withEVsaccountingforfourofeverytennewcarssoldin2024.5

IntheYTDperiodthroughAugust,Toyotaremainedtheglobaltop-sellingbrand,withan11.0%marketshare,upfrom10.7%forthefullyear2023.Muchoftherestofthetopfivebrandsremainedthesameasin2023.BYD,aChinesemanufacturer,hasrisenfromthe49thrankedbrandfiveyearsagotoeighthbest-sellingbrandinYTD2024.10

Globally,vehiclesalesareprojectedtoincrease1.8%in2024at91.4millionunitsandincrease2.5%in2025to93.7millionunits.1Theseestimatesaremoremodestthanpreviouslythought,withpriorprojectionsforecastingupto94.2millionunitssoldin2025.11

2024YTDGlobalBestsellingBrands

AnnualGlobalVehicleSales

90.2

89.891.493.7

81.581.0

77.8

2018

2017

201920202021

Units

202220232024F2025F

Growth

Sources:

“WhyWe’reExpectingGlobalCarMarketGrowthtoHittheBrakes,”ING,August6,2024.

Brand

BestsellingVehicle

Brand%of2024MarketShare

2023Rank

1.

ToyotaCorolla

11.0%

1

5.9%

2.

2

VolkswagenTiguan

3.

HondaCR-V

4.5%

3

4.

FordF-Series

4.5%

5

5.

HyundaiTucson

4.4%

4

Sources:

4

“NewTiguanGeneration:Volkswagen’sBestsellerCelebratesWorldPremiereinFrontof10,000Employees,”VWNewsroom,September19,2023.“WorldBestSellingCarRanking2024,”Focus2Move,September9,2024.

“WorldBestSellingCar.Top25BestSellingBrandsin2024,”Focus2Move,September9,2024.Alltrademarks,tradenames,orlogosreferencedhereinarethepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.

GlobalAutoSalesTrends

SlowdownofAutomotiveGlobalization

New100%tariff

U.S.TariffsandAutoImportBans

TheU.S.announcedanincreaseintariffsonChinese-madegoodsinMay.Thenewtariffswould

quadruplethetaxonChineseEVs,increasingfrom25%to100%.Tariffratesonlithiumbatteries,batteryminerals,andsemiconductorswerealsoincreased.12AWhiteHousestatementarguesthatgovernment

New17%-35%tariff

subsidizationpushesChinesecompaniestoproducemorethanneeded,thenChinafloodstheglobalmarketwithexcessproductsat“unfairlylowprices.”13Additionally,inlateAugust,theBiden

administrationproposedabanonChinesesoftwareandhardwareinvehicles,citingnationalsecurityconcerns.ThenewrulewouldeffectivelybanallautoimportsfromChina.Theproposedbanwouldbegin,inpart,in2027.14

EUTariffsonChineseEVs

Tariffincreaseto100%

InJuly,theEuropeanUnionproposednewtariffsonEVsmanufacturedinChina.OntopoftheexistingEU10%importdutyonforeigncars,thenewtariffswouldrangefrom17%to35%,dependingonthe

manufacturer.SimilartotheU.S.,EUofficialsarguethatChinaisunfairlysubsidizingexcessEV

productiontobesoldabroadformuchcheaperthannon-Chinesecompetitors.Thegoalistoease

pressureonlocalEUcarproducersandshiftinvestmentawayfromChinatotheEU.Thenewtariffswerecalculatedbasedonestimatesofhowmuchstateaideachcompanyreceives.Chinesestate-owned

ShanghaiAutomotiveIndustryCorporationreceivedthehighesttariff,ahugehittothemanufacturerthatreceives15%ofglobalrevenuefromtheirEuropeanEVsales.15OnOctober4,theEUvotedtoimpose

CanadianTariffsonChineseEVs

SimilartotheU.S.andEU,CanadaannouncedinlateAugustthatitwillincreasetariffsonChineseEVs,addinganew100%surtaxtotheexisting6%tariffonChinese

EVs.17ChinaisCanada’ssecondlargesttradepartner,andautoimportstotheportofVancouverincreased460%in2023.18Canadaimportedover$1.6billionofChineseEVslastyear.ThetariffswereputinplaceinOctober2024.19

ChineseConsumersIncreasinglyBuyingDomesticCars

Intheworld’slargestautomarket,domesticChinesemanufacturershavegrowntheirmarketsharedramaticallyinthelastfewyears.DrivenbystrongEVsales,domesticbrandsincreasedtheirmarketshareto67%inJuly2024,up20%fromthesameperiodtwoyearsago.Foreignmanufacturers,strugglingtocompeteintheEVpricingwar,haveseendiminishedmarketsharesaslocalcustomersopttopurchaseChinesebrands.Volkswagenhadbeenthebest-sellingcarbrandforovertwodecades,untillosingthetitlein2023toBYD.20

5

GlobalAutoSalesTrends

U.S.ElectrifiedVehicleUpdate

BEV=BatteryElectricVehicle

HEV=HybridElectricVehicle

PHEV=Plug-InHybridElectricVehicle

EV=ElectrifiedVehicles

EVsalescontinuetoincreaseintheU.S.,albeitataslowerratethanwhatwasoncepredicted.1AsmanufacturerscutorslowtheproductionofcertainEVsandconsumerdemandslows,EVsalesarestillup23%fortheYTDperiodthroughAugust2024.MuchofthatincreaseisdrivenbygrowthinHEVs,withYoYgrowthof35.7%.BEVsalesintheYTDperiodgrew10.3%toover782,000units.3AsmoremanufacturershaveintroducedBEVmodelstothemarketatvaryingpricepoints,Teslafellbelow50%ofBEV

marketshareforthefirsttime,inthesecondquarterof2024.21

BEVandtotalEVmarketsharedippedtostarttheyear,butbothhavesincereboundedandproducedall-timehighs,withBEV

marketshareat8.6%andEVmarketshareat20.6%forthemonthofAugust.3J.D.PowerexpectsBEVmarketsharetocontinuetoriseto9%bytheendoftheyear,lowerthantheirpreviousforecastof12%.SlowerEVadoptionisviewedasashort-termissue,asBEVmarketshareisstillexpectedtohit36%by2030andnearly60%by2035.22

SelectEVMarketHeadlines

“NorthvoltSubsidiaryFilesforBankruptcyAfterExpansionPlanisShelved”23

“EUCarSalesat3-YearLowinAugust,EVSalesPlunge44%”24

“AfterLayoffs,Tesla’sSuperchargerExpansionSlows”25

“VolvoTrucksDelaysStartofConstructionforBatteryPlantinSweden”26

“GMDelaysIndianaEVBatteryPlantto2027”27

“AutoIndustry’sEVRetreatHastens”28

“FordShufflesEVPlans;Canceling,DelayingBigOnes”29

“GMDelaysEVProjectsinLatestIndustryPullback”30

“DealershipsHopefulEVsWillBringBackThatNewCarSmell”31

“ElectricSUVMakerFiskerFilesforBankruptcy”32

GasPricesvs.EVMarketPenetrationintheU.S.

$5.00$4.00$3.00$2.00$1.00$0.00

Aug-18i

Nov-18i

Feb-19i

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19i

Feb-20i

May-20

Aug-20

Nov-20i

Feb-21i

May-21

Aug-21

Nov-21i

Feb-22i

May-22

Aug-22

Nov-22i

Feb-23i

May-23

Aug-23

Nov-23

Feb-24i

May-24

Aug-24i-

24.00%20.00%16.00%12.00%8.00%4.00%0.00%

RetailGasolinePricesBEVMonthlyMarketShareEVMonthlyMarketShare

Sources:

6

ArgonneNationalLaboratoryU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration

GlobalAutoSalesTrends

U.S.ElectrifiedVehicleUpdate:ChargingStations

DespitetheslowdowningrowthofEVadoptionintheU.S.,EVscontinuetogainmarketshare.33AsthenumberofEVsontheroadcontinuestogrow,sodoestheneedforcharginginfrastructure.ThenumberofpubliclyavailableEVchargingstationsintheU.S.hasgrownrapidlyoverthelastseveralyears,withanincreaseof14%ormore

eachyearsince2010,andhasgrownatacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of26%overthelast10years.Thenumberofchargingportshassurgedsimilarly,ata25%CAGR,reaching168,000nationalportsin2023.34AsofAugust2024,therewereanestimated192,000chargingportsintheU.S.,with1,000beingbuilteveryweek.35

CaliforniacontinuestoleadthenationinnumberofEVchargingstations.TheGoldenStatehasover16,000chargingstationsandnearly50,000chargingports,

accountingfor25%and29%ofthenation’stotals,respectively.ThetopfiveEVchargingstates(California,NewYork,Florida,TexasandMassachusetts)accountfornearlyhalfofallchargingstationsintheU.S.36

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

U.S.PublicEVChargingInfrastructure

168,388

64,641

2017201820192020202120222023ChargingPorts

2010201120122013201420152016ChargingStationLocations

Source:

AlternativeFuelsDataCenter

Currently,over60%ofAmericanslivewithintwomilesofapublicEVcharging

port,althoughthatamountisnotevenlysplitacrossgeographiclines.Over85%ofurbanresidentslivewithinatwo-mileradiusofanEVcharger,comparedtoonly30%ofruralAmericans.37Whileover90%ofEVchargingisdoneathome,38

addressingchargingneedsinruralareasandalongmajorhighwayrouteshas

beenarecentfocus.The2022InflationReductionAct(IRA)providestaxcreditsfortheconstructionofEVchargingstationsoutsideofurbanareas.Sincethetax

creditsbecameactive,ruralareashaveseenafastergrowthrateofchargingstationscomparedtourbanareas.37

Inadditiontothe2022IRAandotherfederalgrants,the2021Bipartisan

InfrastructureLawallocatedupto$7.5billionfortheconstructionofEVchargingstationsacrossthenation.However,thedeploymentofchargingstationshasbeenhamperedbycomplexpermittingandregulatoryrequirements.39AsofJune2024,lessthanadozenchargingstationsfundedbythebillhavebeencompleted.

Despiteaslowrollout,27stateshavenowsubmittedrequeststobuildchargingstations,andconstructionisexpectedtoaccelerate.40

7

GlobalAutoSalesTrends

AutonomousTechnologyandCybersecurityUpdate

AutonomousdrivingcapabilitiescontinuetoimproveintheU.S.andaroundtheworld,especiallyintheride-sharingmarket.Whileautonomousvehicle(AV)adoptionisexpectedtocomeslowerthanpreviouslyexpected,by2030thereareexpectedtobeafewmillionAVsinuseforridesharingglobally.9

GlobalAVAdoption:

Globally,upto10%ofnewcarsalesin2030couldbeL3orhighervehicles,allowingdriverstotaketheirhandsoffthewheelincertainsituations.By2040,L3vehiclescouldbeoverone-thirdofnewcarsales,whileL4+(fullyautonomous)couldmakeup14%ofnewcarsales,downfrom17%inpriorestimates.9

Chinaisthegloballeaderforautonomousvehicletesting,with16citiesallowingdriverlesscarsonpublicroadsand19companiesworkingonAVs.41

By2040,withnearlyhalfofnewcarsalesexpectedtobeL3orhigher,Chinaisexpectedtoleadtheworldwith90%ofsalesatL3+.Europeisexpectedtoachieve79%penetration,whiletheU.S.followsat65%.9

WaymoandGMCruiseAutomationRemainMarketLeadersintheU.S.:

Waymooperates800vehiclesacrossPhoenix,SanFranciscoandLosAngelesandiscurrentlytheonlyautonomoustaxioperatorintheU.S.collectingfares.42

Google,Waymo’sparentcompany,committed$5billiontofundWaymoearlierthissummer,asWaymolookstocontinuetestingvehiclesandexpanditsfleettoAustinandAtlanta.42

GM’sCruiseAutomationoperationswerepausedinOctober2023whenoneoftheircarswasinvolvedasasecondaryvehicleinapedestrianaccidentinCalifornia.CruiseAutomationhassinceresumed

operationinPhoenixandTexasbuthasnotyetregainedpermissiontotestAVsinCalifornia.42

CybersecurityIsaTopPriority:

Cybersecuritywasrecentlyrankedasthetopexternalconcernforglobalautomotivecompanies.43

AJunecyberattackofautomotiveindustrytechnologyproviderCDKimpactedthousandsofU.S.autodealerships,highlightingthedamagethatcyberattackscancauseintheindustry.44

Cyberattackshavecausedanestimated$11.8billionindamagesfortheautomotiveindustryinthefirsthalfof2024.43

ResearchersattheUniversityofCalifornia,IrvineandtheUniversityatBuffaloinNewYorkhavebeen

testingsecurityvulnerabilitiesofLiDARandothertechnologyusedinautonomousvehicles.45,46

ExpectedAutonomousDrivingPenetrationbyLevel

100.0%

80.0%

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%

2025203020352040

L0L1L2.L3L4/L5

Source:GoldmanSachs

L0=noautomation,fullmanual;L1=onedriverassistancefeature;L2=multipledriverassistancefeatures;L3=autonomousdrivingincertaincircumstances,L4=highautomationwhenengaged,humanmayoverrideanddrive

anytime;L5=fullautomationinallsituations,nodriverneeded

8

AutomotiveLandscapebyGeography

NorthAmericanAutoSalesTrends

Forthefirsthalfof2024,U.S.lightvehiclesalesincreasedjust2.1%YoY,1alargeslowdowncomparedtothe13.1%salesgrowthexperiencedin2023.47Salesgrowthdeclinedduetofallingconsumerdemandafterapost-COVIDcatchup,uncertaineconomicandpoliticalenvironments,andhigherinterestrates.1Additionally,used

vehicleinventoryishigherandpricesarelowercomparedto2023,withusedvehiclesbecominganincreasinglyattractiveinvestmentforsomebuyers.48

Theforecastedsalesfor2024intheU.S.areunchangedfrompreviousestimatesof15.9million.Salesareexpectedtopickupslightlythroughtheendoftheyearashighervehicleinventory,aninterestratecut,andaggressiveautomakerdiscountsareallexpectedtocontributetomoreaffordablenew-vehicleprices.2Productionlevelsfor2024areforecastedat15.5millionunits,adecreasetopreviousestimatesonhigherinventorylevelsandlowerEVproduction.49Through2025and2026,U.S.autosalesareexpectedtogrowmodestlybetween0%and2%,buttotalsalesvolumesareexpectedtoremainbelowpre-pandemiclevels.50

Pickuptrucksonceagainmadeupthetoptwosellingvehiclessofarin2024.TheRampickupfelloutofthirdplaceafteranearly20%declineinsalescomparedtolastyear.51EVscontinuetogainmarketshareintheU.S.,despiteslower-than-expectedsalesgrowth.InJulyandAugust2024,BEVmonthlymarketsharewasabove8%,andtotalEVmarketsharecrossedthe20%thresholdforthefirsttime.3BEVsalesareexpectedtoreach9%marketsharebytheendofthisyear.22

YearlyU.S.VehicleSales

2024YTDU.S.BestsellingVehicles

Model

Make

UnitsSold

Changefrom

2023YTD

20.018.016.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.0

UnitsinMillions

17.417.517.217.317.0

15.9

1.FordF-Series

619,827

8.1%

ChevroletSilverado

0.2%

2.

412,397

3.

ToyotaRAV4

350,331

15.7%

4.

HondaCRV

298,164

13.7%

5.

Rampickup

268,664

-19.2%

16.4

15.0

13.7

15.5

15.5

14.7

Sources:

“2024U.S.AutoSalesFigures–ByModel,”GoodCarBadCar,September2024.Alltrademarks,tradenames,orlogosreferencedhereinarethepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.

Sources:

9

“U.S.AutoIndustrySalesAnalysis,”GoodCarBadCar,March2024.

HenkBekker,“2023(FullYear)International:WorldwideCarSales,”Best-Selling-Cars,January19,2024.

“SeptemberU.S.AutoSales:SmallerVolume,LittleChangetoUnderlyingDynamics,”S&PGlobalMobility,September27,2024.

AutomotiveLandscapebyGeography

ChineseAutomotiveLandscape

ChineseautomotivesalesfortheYTD2024periodthroughAugustincreasedto18.9millionvehicles,up3.5%fromthesameperiodin2023.Afteranexpectedslowstartto2024duetotheChineseNewYearholiday,salesreboundedonhigherdealerinventories,strongEVgrowth,andbeneficialvehicletrade-inpolicies.Throughthefirsthalfoftheyear,vehicleproductionwasup4.9%duetostrongdomesticdemandandexpandingexports.4

Autosalesareexpectedtoremainstrongthroughtherestoftheyear,especiallyinSeptemberandOctober,thetraditionallystrongsellingseasonfilledwithauto

showsandlaunchesofnewcarmodels.Chinaisprojectingtoexperiencesalesgrowthofbetween2%and3%for2025and2026,outpacingtheothermajormarketsofEuropeandtheU.S.50

EVsaleshavebeenextremelystrongin2024,withEVsalesup38%YoYinAugustalone.EVmarketsharedroppedtostarttheyear,butforthelastthreemonths,overhalfofnewcarsalesinChinawereEVs.BEVsmakeupmorethanhalfofEVsales,butPHEVshaveaccountedformostoftherecentEVgrowth,withover70%growthcomparedto2023.Ifstrongfirsthalfbuyingtrendscontinue,thefullyear2024EVmarketsharecouldreach50%.5Additionally,batterypriceshaverecentlystartedtofallasrawmaterialshortageshaveabated.LowerbatterypricesareexpectedtosupportincreasedEVadoptionthrough2025.1

ChineseMonthlyAutoSales

3.5060.0%

EVMonthlyMarketShare

50.0%

3.00

vehiclesinMillions

2.50

40.0%

2.00

30.0%

1.50

20.0%

1.00

10.0%

0.50

0.0%

0.00

Sources:

MonthlyVehicleSales4-MonthMovingAverageEVMonthlyMarketShare

10

ChinaAssociationofAutomobileManufacturers.“China–AutomotiveSalesVolume,2024,”Marklines.CleanTechnica.

AutomotiveLandscapebyGeography

EuropeanAutomotiveLandscape

FortheJanuarythroughAugustperiod,carregistrationswereup1.7%intheEU,EFTAandUKcombined,comparedtothesameperiodin2023.IntheEuropean

Union,SpainandItalyhadmodestYoYgrowthof4.5%and3.8%,respectively.FrenchandGermanregistrationsdeclinedmodestlyat0.5%and0.3%,respectively.RegistrationgrowthfromJanuarythroughJulywashamperedbyadismalAugust,wheretotalEU+EFTA+UKregistrationsdeclined16.5%comparedtoAugust

2023.7RegistrationsfellinAugustduetoweakerconsumerdemand,highcarpricesandinterestrates,andtheendingofsomesubsidiesforEVsinGermany.6

TheEVmarketintheEUhasfacedsomedifficultiessofarin2024.FortheEU+EFTA+UK,marketshareofBEVsfellto14.0%fortheJanuarythroughAugustperiod,downfrom15.1%forthesameperiodin2023.PHEVsalsosawdecliningmarketshareintheYTDperiod,butHEVssawsignificantimprovement,reaching30.4%marketsharefrom25.7%in2023.IncludingHEVsandPHEVs,morethanhalfofnewregistrationsarenowanEV,with51.5%marketsharethroughAugust.7

Fortherestof2024,vehiclesalesareprojectedtocontinuetoslow,withthelargestmarketsexpectingflatsalescomparedto2023.WhileotherEuropeanmarketsareexpectedtoexperiencegrowth,highinterestrates,elevatedvehicleprices,andfadingEVdemandaredrivingthemuted2024outlookforthelargestmarkets.In2025,EUmanufacturerswillhavetohitnewCO2emissiontargetsfortheircars,forcingproducerstotrytosellmorelower-marginEVs,evenasdemandis

20.0%

YTD2024NewCarFuelTypes

EuropeanMonthlyAutoRegistrations

1,500

NewRegistrationsinThousands

1,200

900

600

300

0

YoYGrowth

2.6%

12.0%

11.5%

7.1%

34.7%

30.4%

11.1%

14.0%

10.2%

10.0%

GasolineDiesel

HybidElectricBatteryElectric.Plug-InHybridnOther

3.6%

0.4%

-2.6%

-2.8%

0.0%

-10.0%

-16.5%

-20.0%

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2022Registrations2023Registrations2024Registrations2024YoYGrowth

11

Source:TheEuropeanAutomobileManufacturers’AssociationNote:MonthlyregistrationsrepresentnewpassengercarregistrationsintheEU,EuropeanFreeTradeAssociation(EFTA),andUK

PublicCompanyTradingStatistics

PublicCompanyEquityPerformance

Overthepasttwoyears,theautomotiveindexesvariedsignificantlyinperformance.AutomotiveMobilitywastheonlyindextooutperformtheS&P500,rising129.9%duetoincreasesinride-sharingcompaniessincethethirdquarteroflastyear.TheAutomotiveDealers,AutomotiveAftermarketPartsandRepair,

AutomotiveOEMs,andAutomotiveSupplierindicesendedthetwo-yearperiodlowerthantheS&P500butinpositiveterritory.Thoseindicesincreased54.4%,

41.8%,27.2%,and11.2%,respectively.TheElectricVehiclesindexdeclined5.5%,drivenlargelybyflatstockpriceperformancefromTeslaoverthelasttwoyears.8

IntheYTDperiodthatendedSeptember30,2024,theAutomotiveMobilityindexwasthelargestgainer,up22.8%.AutomotiveAftermarketPartsandRepairwasup19.9%,justunderperformingtheS&P500’sgainof21.5%.TheAutomotiveDealersandElectricVehiclesindicesbothhadsingledigitincreases,whileAutomotive

OEMsandAutomotiveSuppliersbothgaveupfirstquartergainstoendtheYTDperioddown5.4%and17.9%,respectively.8

YTD2024EquityMarketPerformance

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%

-40.0%

-50.0%

150.0%

125.0%

100.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

0.0%

-25.0%

-50.0%

-75.0%

129.9%

22.8%

21.5%

19.9%

5.7%

3.8%

(5.4%)

(17.9%)

60.7%

54.4%

41.8%

27.2%

11.2%

(5.5%)

LastTwoYearsEquityMarketPerformance

1-Mar-24

30-Apr-24

1-Jan-24

Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24Jun-24Sep-24

29-Jun-2428-Aug-24

S&P500AutomotiveAftermarketPartsandRepairAutomotiveSuppliersAutomotiveMobilityAutomotiveOEMsAutomotiveDealersElectricVehicles

12

Note:RepresentsthemostactivelytradedpublicautomotivesectorcompaniesSource:S&PCapitalIQasofSeptember30,2024

PublicCompanyTradingStatistics

HistoricalTradingMultiples

TheAutomotiveOEMsaretradingat5.1xLTMearningspershare,downover4.5xfromtheirfive-yearmedianprice-to-earnings(P/E)multipleof9.7.TheAutomotiveAftermarketIndexiscurrentlytradingabout1.5xlowerthantheirfive-yearmedianEV/EBITDAmultiple.Historically,theAftermarketIndexhasconsistentlytraded

around12.0xto13.0xEV/EBITDA.AutomotiveDealermultipleshaveincreasedinthelastyear,currentlytradingat7.9x,upfrom5.0xin2022and6.6xin2023.AutomotiveSuppliersaretradingbelowtheirfive-yearmedianmultipleof6.1x.8

HistoricalP/EMultiplesSince2019

HistoricalEBITDAMultiplesSince2019

20.0x

16.0x

12.0x

8.0x

4.0x

0.0x

16.8x

5-YearMedian:9.7x

9.8x

9.7x

8.1x

6.8x

5.1x

AutomotiveOEMs

20.0x

16.0x

12.0x

8.0x

4.0x

0.0x

5-YearMedian:12.8x

112x

12.4x12.4x12.8x13.0x12.8x

5-YearMedian:6.6x

.

8.6x

7.9x

5-YearMedian:6.1x

8.4x

6.7x

6.6x

5.3x5.0x5.

6.7x

6.1x5.9x

4x

7x

4.

AutomotiveAftermarketAutomotiveDealersAutomotiveSuppliers

FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023LTMasof9/30/24

Note:MultipleshavebeenadjustedhistoricallytoreflectcorrespondingadjustmentsmadeintheAutomotiveValuationDeckonpages3–7Note:LTM=latesttwelvemonths

Source:S&PCapitalIQasofSeptember30,2024,andcompanyfilings

13

M&AActivity

HistoricalM&AActivitybyQuarter

YearlyM&Aactivityintheautomotivesectorhasdeclinedoverthelasttwoyears.Asinterestratesincreasedthroughout2022and2023,volumefelltoonly585dealsclosedin2023,rivalingaCOVID-19impacted2020forlowestdealvolumeoverthelastsixyears.8

Onaquarterlybasis,activityslowedthroughout2023and2024.Throughthefirstthreequartersof2024therewereonly354transactionscompleted,8asdealactivitywassu