2024年洞察：推動人工智能對話的進(jìn)步+Deloitte+Insights+Magazine+2024

Issue331

ContentsDeloitteINSIGHTS

Magazine33

04Ontheweb/07Editor’sletter/08Contributors/90Theendnote

Bite-sizeinsightsfromDeloitteresearch

1.Datapoints

18GenAIinvestmentsincreasinglyextendbeyondtheAIitself

19WhilebusinessleaderslookinwardforAI’simpact,techleaderslookoutward

20FewAIregulationsacrosstheglobeaddresstheoutcomesratherthanthetech

21Europeanorganizations’genAIpreparednesshasincreased,butfewfeelreadyfortheassociatedrisks

22Aburgeoning‘AI-generated’market:InsurancesafeguardsagainstAIrisk

23Morehands-ongenAIexperienceincreasesoptimism—andcaution—formillennialsandGenZ

24Manytechleaders’influenceintheC-suiteisgrowing,newDeloitteresearchsuggests

25ArenewgenerativeAIfeaturesinsoftwareamonetizableenhancementortablestakes?

26AsnapshotofAIadoption:Italy’sdesignsector

27MoreUSconsumersthinkAI-generatedhealthinformationshouldbelefttotheexperts

2.Perspectives

30BetterquestionsaboutgenerativeAI

Fourscholarssharecriticalquestionsleadersshouldask

aboutgenerativeAI,fromconcernsaboutbiastoexistentialconsiderationsabouthumanvalues

34GenerativeAIandthelabormarket:Acasefortechno-optimism

GenerativeAIcanboostproductivityandenhancethe

labormarket,yetitremainstobeseenifeveryonecanreapitsmanybenefits

38ThemoreAI-enabledworkbecomes,

themoreimportanthumanimaginationis

Oneofthemostvaluableskillsyouneedtosucceedinan

AI-enabledworkingworldyoulikelylearnedinkindergarten

42Thedemocratizationofdeepfaketechnologybringsnewperilsforbusiness

AchiefexecutiveofadeepfakedetectionplatformcompanyandDeloitteUS’schieffuturistexplorethegrowingdeepfakerisks,aswellasmitigationstrategiesthatcanhelporganizationsfightAI-enabledfraudwithAI

46OrganizationstalkaboutequityinAI,butaretheyfollowingthrough?

Diversity,equity,andinclusionleadersareinauniquepositiontoadvocateforAIthatworksforeveryone.Here’swheretheyhaveopportunitiestoleadattheintersectionofAIandDEI.

3.Features

52Predictingtheunpredictable:Exploringhowtechnologycouldchangethefutureofwork

WhatdoesthefutureholdforworkerandAIcollaboration?Itdependslessonthetechandmoreonthedecisionswemakealongtheway.

60GenerativeAIinAsiaPacific:Youngemployeesleadasemployersplaycatch-up

Asurveyofmorethan11,900employeesandstudentsacrosstheregionfindsthatgenAIisalreadyaffecting11billionworkhoursperweek,butmanyemployerslikelyaren’toptimizingthatimpact

70DesigningforgrowthintheC-suite

Ananalysisofover46,000jobpostingsrevealsthemost

in-demandskillsforC-suiteroleslikeCFOs,COOs,andotherexecutiveleaders

78GenerativeAIandgovernmentwork:Ananalysisof19,000tasks

DeloitteUS’sanalysisrevealsthreecriteriathatcanhelp

determinewhichtaskscouldbeassignedtogenerativeAItools

andwhendifferentoccupationscouldfeelpressuretoadoptthem

Masthead

DeloitteInsightsMagazine

EDITORIAL

AditiRao(teamlead,USandIndia)

AnnalynKurtz(teamlead,USandglobal)RichardHorton(teamlead,Europe)

JenniferWright(teamlead,AsiaPacific)

AndyBayiates

RupeshBhat

CintiaCheong

CorrieCommisso

PubaliDey

KarenEdelmanAbrarKhan

RebeccaKnutsen

KavitaMajumdar

DebashreeMandalSanjuktaMukherjeeElizabethPayes

ArpanKumarSahaSaraSikora

RithuThomas

PUBLISHINGOPERATIONS

StacyWagner-Kinnear

PRODUCTION

BlytheHurley(teamlead)

HannahBachmanProdyutBorah

PreethaDevan

AparnaPrusty

ShambhaviShah

EXECUTIVEADVISOR

RodSides

PUBLISHER

JeffPundyk

EDITORINCHIEF

ElisabethSullivan

ARTDIRECTOR

MattLennert

CREATIVE

SylviaYoonChang(teamlead)JaimeAustin

ManyaKuzemchenkoNataliePfaff

MollyPiersol

SofiaSergi

JimSlatton

SonyaVasilieffHarryWedel

AlexisWerbeck

USEREXPERIENCERESEARCHANDDESIGN

DeniseWeiss(teamlead)DanielleJohnson

JoaniePearsonSanaaSaifi

WEBPRODUCTION

MelissaO’Brien(teamlead)

MULTIMEDIA

SarahJersild

AUDIENCEINSIGHTSAND

PRODUCTMANAGEMENT

AmyBergstrom(teamlead)HannahRappCollins

NishantRaghuwanshi

AUDIENCEDEVELOPMENT

TurnerRoach(teamlead)

AtiraAndersonPoojaBoopathyKellyCherry

MariaMartinCirujanoNikitaGaria

WEBDEVELOPMENT

SourabhYaduvanshi(teamlead)MeghaPriya

NitinGauravSinghNaveenBhusare

SupreethaR

DIGITALOPERATIONS

EktaDubey

KNOWLEDGESERVICES

JoyKishta(teamlead)PruthviC.

PallaviVNair

AbhijitSahu

RoshniThawani

CONTACT

Email:insights@

/company/deloitte-insights

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financial,investment,legal,tax,orotherprofessionaladviceorservices.Thispublicationisnotasubstituteforsuchprofessionaladviceorservices,norshoulditbeusedasabasisforanydecisionoractionthatmayaffectyourbusiness.Beforemakinganydecisionortakinganyactionthatmayaffectyourbusiness,youshouldconsultaqualifiedprofessionaladvisor.Deloitteshallnotberesponsibleforanylosssustainedbyanypersonwhoreliesonthispublication.

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Ontheweb

WhatDeloitteInsightsreadersarereading

TheimportantroleofleadersinadvancinghumansustainabilityHowcanorganizationsworkbetterforworkingwomen?

Navigatingthetechtalentshortage

GenZsandmillennialsfindreasonsforoptimismdespite

difficultrealities

Householdstransformingthegrid:Distributedenergyresources

arekeytoaffordablecleanpower

Lessonsformiddle-markettechexecutivestoconsiderfrom

theirfast-growingpeers

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Issue337

EDITOR’SLETTER

AdvancingtheAIconversation

Overthepasttwodecades,andthenseeminglyovernight,artificialintelligencehasgone

fromafringetechnologytowhatmanyconsidertobemust-have,market-makingand-shapingtech.Andwitheachpassingday,theAIconversationisevolvinginrealtime,spurredon,ofcourse,byallthingsgenerative-AI–relatedandthemorereadilyapparentimpactAIcouldhaveonorganizations,industries,andeconomies.

Inthisissue,we’refeaturingsomeofDeloitte’slatestproprietaryresearchandinsightstohelpmovetheAIconversationforward,offeringfreshperspectivesandforesightonwhatthoseorganizationalandeconomicimpactsmightbe.

Forinstance,Deloitteresearchershaveslicedanddicedadatasetfromaproprietarysurveyofnearly2,800boardmembers,C-suiteexecutives,andotherseniorleadersin14countriesforinsightsintohowgenerativeAIbudgetsarebeingspent(page18),whatittakestoscalefromgenAIpilotstofullimplementation(page90),andwhetherorganizationsfeelpreparedforanyriskandgovernanceissuesassociatedwiththetechnology(page21).

WelookatwhichsuccessmetricsbusinessandtechleadersturntowhendeterminingtheimpactoftheirAIinvestments(page19),andwhichkindsofAIregulationscouldbemosteffectivefortheever-evolvingtechnology,safeguardingthepublicwhilenothinderinginnovation(page20).

AndweexamineAI’spotentialimpactonworkandtheworkforcefromseveralangles—consideringgenAI’spotentialimpactonproductivityandlabordemandand,therefore,economicoutcomes(page34);trackingthetrendinC-suiterolesrequiringmoredataandanalyticsskills(page70);makingthecaseforthekeycapabilitypeoplecouldneedasworkbecomesmoreAI-enabled(page38);anddiscussingwhynewpredictionmodelsmightbeneededtodeterminehowAIandothertechcouldchangethefutureofwork(page52).

Andwe’rejustscratchingthesurface.DeloitteisbuildingarichanddiverseportfolioofAI-relatedbusinessresearchandinsights—thekindoftrustworthy,deeplyresearchedinformationthatyourAI-enabledsearchesrelyon.Checkoutforlotsmorewherethiscamefrom.

Best,

ZA以—

ElisabethSullivan

Editorinchief,DeloitteInsightsinsights@

Contributors

TashaAustin

laustin@

TashaAustinisaprincipalinDeloitteUS’sgovernmentandpublicservicespracticewhoseexperienceincludescommercialandfederalfinancialstatementaudits,fraud,disputeanalysisandinvestigations,artificialintelligence,andadvanceddataanalytics.Austinhelpsleadthepractice’sAIanddataanalyticsoffering,helpingclientswiththeirfinancialmanagementtransformation.

SoniaBreeze

sbreeze@deloitte.co.nz

SoniaBreezeleadsDeloitteNewZealand’shumancapitalconsultingprac-ticeandisalsotheinternaltalentpartner.She’scommittedtoenablingorganizationstomaximizethepotentialoftheirpeople.Sheleverages25yearsofexperienceinhumancapitalconsultingandhealthcare,andasaCPO,toadviseonandimplementthepeople-orientedaspectsofchangeincludingtechnologyenablement.

CorrieCommisso

ccommisso@

CorrieCommissoisasenioreditoratDeloitteInsightsleadingglobalcontentstrategyforhumancapitalandthefutureofwork.Shehasmorethan20yearsofexperienceinwriting,editing,andcreativedirection,andholdsdegreesinjournalismandlibraryandinformationscience—acombinationshecreditsforherabilitytotelldeepandengagingstories.

RobertHillard

rhillard@.au

RobertHillardleadsconsultingacrossAsiaPacific,includinginChina,Japan,Australia,India,Singapore,Malaysia,Indonesia,Thailand,Vietnam,NewZealand,andSouthKorea.HehaspreviouslyservedasamemberofDeloitte’sglobalboard(DeloitteToucheTohmatsuLimited),CTOforDeloitteAsiaPacific,andthechiefstrategyandinnovationofficerforDeloitteAustralia.

AndrewBlau

ablau@

AndrewBlauleadsDeloitteUS’sstrategicfuturespractice,helpingclientsthinkcreativelyandstrategicallyabouthowtheycansuccessfullycompetedespitemacroandmarketuncertaintiesintheworldaroundthem.HealsoleadseminenceandinsightsforDeloitteConsulting,developingDeloitteUS’sperspectivesoncross-cuttingissuesshapingorganizationsandmarkets.

SusanCantrell

scantrell@

SusanCantrellisvicepresidentofproductsandworkforcestrategiesatDeloitteConsultingLLP,andafrequentspeakeronhumancapitalandthefutureofwork.SheiscoauthoroftheHarvardBusinessPressbookWorkforceofOneandhasalsobeenpublishedwidelyinpublicationsincludingHarvardBusinessReview,TheWallStreetJournal,andMITSloanManagementReview.

PeterEvans-Greenwood

peter@

PeterEvans-Greenwoodisanindependentadvisorandconsultant,aseniorfellowattheAustralianDavosConnection,andaformerfellowattheDeloitteCentrefortheEdgeinAustralia.Withover20yearsofexperienceattheintersectionofbusinessandtechnology,hecombinessystematicandintegrativethinkingtohelporganizationsmakeinformeddecisionsinanuncertainbusinessenvironment.

SusanC.Hogan

shogan@

SusanC.HoganisthegloballeaderofDeloitte’sfinanceandperformancepractice,andtheleaderofDeloitteUS’sfinancetransformationpractice.Hoganhasnearly30yearsoftransformationconsultingexperience,primarilyinfinanceandglobalbusinessservices.

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8DeloitteMagazine

Issue339

StuartJohnston

stujohnston@.au

StuartJohnstonistheDeloitteGlobalclientsleaderandamemberoftheglobalclientsandindustriesexecutive.BasedinAustralia,healsoservesasaleadclientpartnerandadvisorypartner,focusingonenhancingrelationshipswithboardmembersandexecutives,andconnectingDeloittememberfirmsglobally.

ThirumalaiKannan

tkannand@

ThirumalaiKannanisaresearcherwiththeDeloitteCenterforGovernmentInsights.Hisresearchfocusesonthequantitativeanalysisofcross-cuttingissuesingovernment,includingemergingtechnologieslikeAIandadvancingcitizentrust.

AnnalynKurtz

ankurtz@

AnnalynKurtzistheexecutiveeditorofDeloitteInsights.PriortoherroleatDeloitte,sheworkedasabusinessjournalist,newsroomleader,andeducator.ShehaswrittenaboutbusinessandeconomicstopicsforCNNBusiness,Fortune,andTheNewYorkTimes,amongothers.

DavidMallon

dmallon@

DavidMallonischiefanalystandmarketleaderforDeloitteUS’sInsights2Actionteam,helpingclientssense,analyze,andactattheever-shiftingintersectionofwork,workforce,workplace,andindustry.Hebringsmorethan20yearsofexperienceinhumancapital,withexpertiseinorganizationdesign,organizationalculture,HR,talent,learning,andperformance.

IraKalish

ikalish@

IraKalishisthechiefglobaleconomistatDeloitteToucheTohmatsuLtd.Heisaspecialistinglobaleconomicissuesaswellastheeffectsofeconomic,demographic,andsocialtrendsontheglobalbusinessenvironment.HisinsightshaveappearedinpublicationsincludingTheWallStreetJournal,TheEconomist,andTheFinancialTimes.

PankajKishnani

pkamleshkumarkish@

PankajKishnaniisaresearchmanagerwiththeDeloitteCenterforGovernmentInsights.Hisresearchfocusesonidentifyingtrendsinemergingtechnolo-giesinthepublicsector.Hecloselytracksdigitalgovernmenttransformation,theregulationofemergingtechnologies,theroleofgovernmentincatalyzinginnovations,andcitizen-centricservicedeliverymodels.

ChrisLewin

chrislewin@

ChrisLewinisapartnerintheconsultingpracticeatDeloitteAustraliawithaspecializationinautomation.HehasextensivedataandanalyticsexperiencedrivingITtransformationprograms.

JoeMariani

jmariani@

JoeMarianiisaseniorresearchmanagerwithDeloitte’sCenterforGovernmentInsights.Hisresearchfocusesoninnovationandtechnologyadoptionforbothnationalsecurityorganizationsandcommercialbusinesses.Hispreviousworkincludesexperienceasaconsultanttothedefenseandintelligenceindustries,ahighschoolscienceteacher,andaUSMarineCorpsintelligenceofficer.

TimothyMurphy

timurphy@

TimMurphyisaseniormanagerinDeloitte’sCenterforIntegratedResearch.Asaresearcherandanalyticalscientist,hefocusesonunderstandinghoworganizationsundergolarge-scaletransformationsthatgrowthebusiness,bolsteroperations,andmaketheenterprisemoreresilientagainstexternalshocksanddisruptions.

JohnO’Mahony

joomahony@.au

JohnO’MahonyisaleadpartneratDeloitteAustraliawithover20yearsofprofessionaleconomicsexperience.Hisskillsandexpertiseincludeeconomicimpactanalyses,economicmodelling,andeconomicpolicy.Hisspecificindustriesofinterestincludetelecommunications,media,technology,infrastructure,retail,housing,andmanufacturing.

NicScoble-Williams

nscoble-williams@tohmatsu.co.jp

NicScoble-WilliamsisapartneratDeloitteTohmatsuConsultingLLCandtheAsiaPacificleaderforthefutureofwork.BasedinJapan,andwithmorethan20yearsofcross-industryexperienceinITservices,talentstrategyandadvisory,andmergersandacquisitions,Scoble-Williamsworkswithbusinessesandgovernmentstoembeda“futureofwork”visionintoenterprisetransformationstrategies.

PeterWilliams

pewilliams@.au

PeterWilliamsisaretiredpartnerforDeloitteAustralia.HeservedasthechiefedgeofficeratDeloitte’sCenterfortheEdgeAustraliaandthechairmanofDeloitteAustralia’sInnovationCouncil,andwasafounderofDeloitteDigital.

KellieNuttall

knuttall@.au

KellieNuttallisleadpartnerforstrategyandbusinessdesignandtheAIInstituteatDeloitteAustralia.NuttallspecializesinAIstrategyandtransformationinitiatives,workingwithseniorexecutivestobuildtheirAIfluencyandtheirunderstandingofAItechnologies.PriortojoiningDeloitte,Nuttallbuiltanalyticscapabilitieswithinbothgovernmentandprivate-sectororganizations.

JulianSanders

jusanders@

JulianSandersisaresearchleadinDeloitte’sDEIInstitutewithmulti-industryexperienceineducation,publicpolicy,programmanagement,andresearch.Inhiscurrentrole,hemanagesandactivatesdiversity,equity,andinclusionresearch,contributingtotheinstitute’sthoughtleadership.

BrennaSniderman

bsniderman@

BrennaSnidermanleadstheCenterforIntegratedResearch,wheresheoverseescross-industrythoughtleadershipforDeloitte.Inthiscapacity,Snidermanleadsateamofresearchersfocusedonglobalshiftsindigitaltransformation,innovationandgrowth,climate,andthefutureofwork—howorganizationscanoperateandstrategizeinanageofdigital,cultural,environmental,andworkplacetransformation.

MichaelWolf

miwolf@

MichaelWolfisaglobaleconomistatDeloitteToucheTohmatsuLtd.HebeganhiscareerasaneconomistattheUSLaborDepartmentandhassinceheldeconomistpositionsatMoody’sAnalytics,WellsFargoSecurities,andPwC.HisinsightshavebeenfeaturedinmediaoutletsincludingTheWallStreetJournalandNationalPublicRadio.

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Issue3311

Artists

JaimeAustin

JaimeAustinisanartdirectoratDeloitteInsights,aprofessionalcircledesigner,adesignprocessexpert,andanExcelenthusiast.Herdesignapproachisanchoredinstrategicproblem-solving,wheresheleveragescreativityandlogictocraftbeautifulartworkwithmeaningfulnarratives.

SylviaChang

SylviaChangisDeloitteInsights’creativedirector.Sheisahunterandcollectoroftrends,andservesasarepositoryofinspirationforthecreativeteam.Inaworldfullofnoiseanddetritus,she’sabletoseepatterns.ShetreasuresherSundaysjumpingonthetrampolinewithherdaughtersatherhomeinConnecticut.

NataliePfaff

NataliePfaffisaseniorgraphicanddatavisualizationdesigneratDeloitteInsights,passionateaboutcraftingcompellingvisualstories.Shebelievesthatgreatdesignbeginswithastrongbrandfoundationandleveragesittopushcreativeboundaries.AthomeinWisconsin,shecherisheseverydaymomentswithherhusbandanddaughter.

SofiaSergi

SofiaSergiisaDeloitteInsightsseniorgraphicdesignerfromNewYork.Herpassionforpaintinganddrawingatayoungageevolvedintoalovefordesignandstorytelling.Shedrawsinspirationfrommergingtraditionalartformswithcontemporaryaestheticstotellengagingandmeaningfulstories.

BoseCollins

BoseCollinsisaLondon-baseddesignagencyestablishedin1994,knownforitsuseofstate-of-the-arttools.Itscapabilitiesextendfromfilmdirection,animation,andsounddesign,tocomputergraphics,3Dmodeling,andAIwhispering.

MattLennert

MattLennertledcreativeforDeloitteInsightsandwastheartdirectorforDeloitteInsightsMagazine.Hisworkwithartistsanddatavisualizationdesignersoverthelasttwodecadesvisuallybroughtthestoriestolife.Thisissuemarksthe33rd,andlast,issuethatheproduced.Lennertandhiswifehaveretiredandareofftravelingtheworld.

MollyPiersol

MollyPiersolleadsdatavisualizationdesignatDeloitteInsightsandisthedesignerforDeloitteInsightsMagazine.Shebelievesrawdatacreatesbeautifulartandworkstofurtherexpandthestoriesthatlivebetweenthelinesoffigures.PiersolisaVirginiatransplanttotheSeattleareaandherrootshavegrowndeepenoughthatshe’llnevergoback.

JimSlatton

JimSlattonisaDeloitteInsightsdesignerandillustratorfromAsheville,N.C.Hisgraphicstyleisrootedindecadesofbrandingworkandaloveofmid-centuryminimalism.Heworkswithcustomiconographyandtypography,photocollage,anddatatodistillcomplexinformationintosimplevisualstories.

SonyaVasilieff

SonyaVasilieffisanartdirectoratDeloitteInsights.Sheworksinseveralmediumsincludinggraphicdesignandillustration.VasilieffisanativeofSeattle,whichisasrareastherazorclamsshedigsforeveryyearonherbelovedgrayandrainyWashingtoncoast.

AlexisWerbeck

AlexisWerbeckisanartdirectorandvisualstorytelleratDeloitteInsights.Knownforherbold,color-drivenstyle,shelovestopushcreativeboundariesbutwillgetirkedifasinglepixelisoutofplace.Althoughherdreamofbecomingapopstarnevertranspired,youcanfindhersingingkaraokeandrockingatleastonearticleofclothingwithrhinestones.

HarryWedel

HarryWedelisaseniordatavisualizationdesigneratDeloitteInsights.Withabackgroundinscientificresearch,helovestofindinnovativewaystodisplaycomplexdatathroughengaginginformationdesign.BasedinNewYork,hecreditshisinterestsinmusicandphotographyforhispassionforusingemotioninarttobringpeopletogether.

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1

InfographicbyMollyPiersol

DATAPOINTS

GenAIinvestmentsincreasinglyextend

beyondtheAIitself

Deloitte’sStateofGenerativeAIquarterlysurveyexploreswhereindustryleadersaredirectingtheirgen-AI–relatedfunding

GenerativeAI’snear-andlong-termsuccess

hingesoncontinuedco-investmentinthewidertechnologyecosystem,andrecentDeloitteresearchsignalsthatmanyearlyadoptersareplan-ningtheirAI-relatedinvestmentsaccordingly.

AccordingtothethirdinstallmentofDeloitte’squarterlyStateofGenerativeAIintheEnterprisesurvey,whichwasfieldedinMayandJune2024,andgatheredresponsesfromnearly2,800lead-erswhoseorganizationsarefurtheralongintheiradoptionandimplementationofgenAIsolutions,leadersacrossindustries