高盛-比亞迪：全球汽車市場(chǎng)上的新興領(lǐng)先企業(yè)-2024-10-企業(yè)研究

聚焦中國高韌性企業(yè)(China聚焦中國高韌性企業(yè)(ChinaResilience)系列報(bào)告重點(diǎn)介紹了具備強(qiáng)大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)護(hù)城河的中國企業(yè)，它們的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)使其能更好地應(yīng)對(duì)復(fù)雜多變的宏觀環(huán)境。我們?cè)趫?bào)告中具體研究了這批企業(yè)的商業(yè)護(hù)城河、歷史資本配置和回報(bào)情況，并分別提供了謹(jǐn)慎情景和展望2035年前行道路的藍(lán)天情景分析。我們希望此系列報(bào)告可以給大家提供一個(gè)明晰的框架，去更深層次理解這批優(yōu)質(zhì)企業(yè)未來在國內(nèi)以及國際舞臺(tái)上發(fā)展的韌勁。在本報(bào)告中，我們?cè)敿?xì)分析了比亞迪作為全球新能源汽車市場(chǎng)的龍頭企業(yè)將如何憑借其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)護(hù)城河繼續(xù)在周期中保持韌性。業(yè)，我們?cè)谇榫胺治鲋性u(píng)估了國內(nèi)外新能源汽車行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)），既能節(jié)省成本，又能提高產(chǎn)品開發(fā)和生產(chǎn)的效率；先進(jìn)的技術(shù)和產(chǎn)品，而且單車研發(fā)成本最低；3）高盛與其研究報(bào)告所分析的企業(yè)存在業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系,并且繼續(xù)尋求發(fā)展這些關(guān)系。因此,投資者應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮到本公司可能存在可能影響本報(bào)告客觀性的利益沖突,不應(yīng)視本報(bào)告為作出投資決策的唯-因素。有關(guān)分析師的申明和其他重要信息,見信息披露附錄,或參閱/research/hedge.htmI。由非美國附屬公司聘用的分析師Frombeartoblue-sky:Risksaroundgrowthoutlook3Mostdurablemoatsthroughcycles6Buildingitsmoat-historyandtrackrecord9BYDin2030-2035E-blue-skyscenarioFinancialsandvaluationsAppendix-Capitalallocation:Operatingcash?owthemainsourceofcapital,withmainspendingoncapex22DisclosureAppendix26remainsstagnantbeyond2024.WithbothpassengervehicleandnewenergyvehiclevolumegrowthslowingdowninmanymarketsgloballyunderanelevatedinterestrateenvironmnentaswellasrelativelyhigherNEVpricevs.ICEs,andlackofcharginginfrastructure,thereisriskofmeaningfullyslowerNEVadoptionprogressinaglobalcontext.Inourbearcase,weassumeglobalNEVpenetrationsstaysunchangedat18%startingfrom2024,andBYD’smarketshareintheglobalpassengervehiclemarketalsoremainsstagnantat4%from2023to2030E,implyinglargely?atsalesvolumefrom3.0mnin2023to4.3mnin2030E.Underthisscenario,weapplyatroughP/Emultipleof12xduring2020-2024toarriveatanimpliedvalueofRmb191pershare,or38%downsidetothecurrentshareprice.2)Basecase-assumingChina/ex-ChinaNEVpenetrationtogrow2023to82%/32%in2030E.Underourbasecase,weexpectcontinuouslyrisingNEVpenetrationinChinadrivenbyproductcompetitivenessintermsofbothqualityandprice;foroverseasmarkets,albeitslower,westillseeincreasingpenetrationfacilitatedbybothforeignOEMslaunchingnewmodelsinthecomingyears,aswellasChinaOEMseitherexportingorsettinguplocalproductiontooffermoremodelsinthosemarkets.WeexpectBYD’svolumetoexpandfrom3.0mnin2023to8.6mnin2030E(with6.9mnsoldinthedomesticmarketand1.8mninoverseasmarkets).OurbasecasetargetpriceforBYDisRmb368pershare,implying20%upside.Toyota’smarketshare.WeseeoverseasexpansionasanewgrowthdriverforBYDoverthenext5-10years.Whilecurrentlythecompanyhasmadestrongin-roadsintocertainASEANandSouthAmericamarkets,therearestillstrongentrybarriersincertainkeyglobalmarketssuchasEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Inourblue-skycase,weassumethatifBYDweretosuccessfullybuilditspresenceintothesedif?cultmarketsandtrulybecomeaglobalplayerlikeToyota,itsoverseassalesvolumecouldgrowfrom243kin2023to3.1mnin2030E(vs.1.8mninourbasecase).Underthisscenario,ourdiscountedcash?owwouldimplyatheoreticalvalueofRmb503pershare,or64%upsidetothecurrentshareprice.MostdurablemoatsthroughcyclesWeviewthemajorcompetitivemoatofBYDthatwillcontinuetocarryitsresiliencethroughcyclesliesinitsstrongin-houseR&Dandexecutionef?ciencythatenablethecompanytobe?rst-to-marketwithitsleadingtechnology.Thisisrealizedthroughitsverticalintegrationmodel,whichofferstwolayersofcompetitiveadvantage:(1)Surfacelayer:costsaving.BYD’sverticalintegrationextendsfrompowertraintoupstreamcomponentssuchasIGBTand?lmcapacitor.(2)Underlyinglayer:StrongR&Dandexecutionef?ciency.VerticalintegrationenablesBYDtolaunchindustryleadingtechnologies2-3yearsaheadofpeers,atthesametimeachievingthehighestvehiclecontributionmarginandlowestR&Dexpenseonaperunitbasis.BYDisknownforadoptinganin-houseapproachtomanufacturingthemajorityofitsvehiclecomponents,exceptforglass,tiresandcarseats,whichenablesbothcost-savingaswellasproductdevelopment&productionef?ciency.WebelievethisapproachallowsBYDtoeffectivelysavethegrossmarginthatwouldotherwisebeearnedbythethird-partysuppliers.Byin-sourcingthemajorityofcomponents,weestimateBYDisabletoachievepervehicleBOMcostsavingsofRmb11kforPHEV(plug-inhybridelectricvehicle)andRmb17kforBEV(BatteryElectricVehicle),accountingfor31%and48%ofvehiclegrosspro?t.ThecostadvantagefromverticalintegrationcanalsobeseeninBYD’sindustry-leadingvehiclecontributionmargin,whichmeasurestheshareofrevenueremainingaftersubtractingthevariablecoststhatgointoproducingavehicle.WebelieveverticalintegrationiskeytoenableBYD’sR&Def?ciencywhichismanifestedinthecompany’s?rst-to-marketadvancedtechnologyandproductofferings.BYDspentRmb40bnonR&Din2023,thehighestwithintheChinaindustryandaccountingfor6.6%ofitsrevenue(vs.industryaverageat7.1%ofrevenue).IntermsofperunitR&Dexpense,BYDisthelowestamongpeers.Thisinvestmenthasprovedbene?cialasBYD’sNEVsaleshaveincreasedwitheachgenerationoftechnologyupgrade.AstheNEVindustrycontinuestoadvanceinbothhardwareandsoftwaretechnology,webelieveBYD’sverticalintegrationstrategywillcontinuesupportingitsmarketcompetitivenessandresponsiveness,andexpectthenextgenerationDM5.0andfutureiterationstocontinuedrivingthecompany’svehiclesalesgrowth.BYDmanagesaportfolioofaround30NEVmodelscurrently,oneofthehighestamongChinaOEMs.Withtheincreaseinnumberofmodels,thedif?cultytoachieveeconomicsofscaleaswellassales,marketing,anddistributionincreasesaccordingly.Throughsupplychainintegration,BYDwasabletonotonlylaunchatleast11newmodelsin2024(6alreadylaunchedandkickedoffdeliveryin8M24,atleast5moretocome),butalsoexecutesales&marketingactivitiesinanimbleand?exiblemanner,withaccompanyingproductionrampuptoful?llsurgingdemandfromthemarket.Thecompanyachieved1.0xassetturnoverratioin2023,vs.globalpeersTesla/Toyota/Volkswagenat1.0x/0.5x/0.6x.be?rst-to-marketwithitsleadingtechnologywhichhelpsgrowmarketshareandpro?tability.ThisisrealizedthroughBYD’sverticalintegrationbusinessmodelwhereweseetwolayersofcompetitiveadvantage:nSurfacelayer:CostsavingnUnderlyinglayer:StrongR&Dandexecutionef?ciencyBYDisknownforadoptinganin-houseapproachtomanufacturingthemajorityofitsvehiclecomponents,exceptforglass,tiresandcarseats.WebelievethisapproachallowsBYDtoeffectivelysavethegrossmarginthatwouldotherwisebeearnedbythethird-partysuppliers.BatteryisthesinglelargestcomponentinanEV,accountingforc.16%ofvehicleBOM.Withtotalbatteryinstallation(includingpowerbatteryandenergystoragesystem)of151GWhin2023,BYDisthesecond-largestbatterymakergloballywitha15%marketshare(behindglobalNo.1CATLwith390GWhbatteryinstallationaccountingfor40%marketshare).CATLachieveda23%grossmarginin2023.ThecompanyalsoproducesitsownIGBT(insulated-gatebipolartransistor)-atypeofpowersemiconductorusedasaswitchingdeviceintheinvertercircuitfordrivingsmalltolargemotors,includingautomotivemainmotorcontrollers.TheleadingIGBTprovidergloballyisIn?neon,whichachieveda45%grossmarginin2023.AnotherexampleofBYD’sin-housecomponentsisthe?lmcapacitor-apassiveelectronicdevicethatstoreselectricalenergyduringtheprocessofAC-to-DCandDC-to-ACconversionto?lterthe?uctuationofvoltageandprotectvarioustypesofelectronicdevices-withapplicationinNEVsincludingthemotorinverterDC-link,onboardchargerDC-link,andDC/DCconverterDC-link.Thegloballeaderin?lmcapacitorsisFaratronic,whichachieveda39%grossmarginin2023.Byin-sourcingthemajorityofcomponents,weestimateBYDisabletoachievepervehicleBOMcostsavingsofRmb11kforPHEV(plug-inhybridelectricvehicle)andRmb17kforBEV(BatteryElectricVehicle),accountingfor31%and48%ofvehiclegrosspro?t(Exhibit8).ThecostadvantagefromverticalintegrationcanalsobeseeninBYD’sindustry-leadingvehiclecontributionmargin(Exhibit9),whichmeasurestheshareofrevenueremainingaftersubtractingthevariablecoststhatgointoproducingavehicle.35.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%18.2%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%18.2%16.2%3.7%BYDLiAutoZEEKRNioXPeng31.5%24.0%BYD’sfundamentalcompetitiveadvantageliesinitsstrongin-houseR&Dandexecutionef?ciency,whichhasbeenenabledbyverticalintegration.In2008,BYDlaunchedtheworld’s?rstPHEV-theF3DMmodelwhichusedits?rstgenerationDM1.0technology,withoverallfuelconsumptionof2.7L/kmandapricetagofRmb149.8k.Now15yearsand?vegenerationslater,thecompany’slatestDM5.0technology-equippedQinLmodellaunchedinMay2024hasimprovedoverallfuelconsumptiontoaslowas1.11L/kmevenwithalowerentrypriceofRmb99.8k(Exhibit10).WhenwecompareBYD’sWLTC(WorldwideLightVehicleTestCycle)fuelef?ciencywithotherPHEVandICEpeersintheChinamarket,weseethatBYDcandelivermoreef?cientvehiclesatfastertime-to-marketthankstoitsin-houseR&D(Exhibit11).Amongthebest-sellingA-segmentsedansinthemarket,PHEVsonaveragehavebetterfuelef?ciencyat4.7L/kmthanICEvehiclesat5.9L/km.WhencomparingBYDwithotherPHEVpeers,itsDM4.0technologywith4.6L/kmfuelconsumptionisamongthebestinthemarket,eventhoughtheDM4.0platformwaslaunchedin2021,whilepeersonlycaughtupwithBYDonfuelef?ciencyin2023.WiththerecentDM5.0debutinMay2024,BYDhasagainfurtherimprovedfuelconsumptionto3.8L/km.WebelieveverticalintegrationiskeytoenableBYD’sR&Def?ciencywhichismanifestedinthecompany’s?rst-to-marketadvancedtechnologyandproductofferings.BYDspentRmb40bnonR&Din2023,thehighestwithintheChinaindustryandaccountingfor6.6%ofitsrevenue(vs.industryaverageat7.1%ofrevenue).IntermsofperunitR&Dexpense,BYDisthelowestamongpeers(Exhibit13).Thisinvestmenthasprovedbene?cialasBYD’sNEVsaleshaveincreasedwitheachgenerationoftechnologyupgrade.AstheNEVindustrycontinuestoadvanceinbothhardwareandsoftwaretechnology,webelieveBYD’sverticalintegrationstrategywillcontinuesupportingitsmarketcompetitivenessandresponsiveness,andexpectthenextgenerationDM5.0andfutureiterationstocontinuedrivingthecompany’svehiclesalesgrowth.4,500,0003,865,7764,000,0003,500,0003,000,0002,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000247,811500,000247,811-2,899-0DM1.0DM2.0DM3.0DM4.0DM5.0WeexpectthedomesticChinaretailpassengervehiclemarkettoreach23.8mnintermsofvolumeby2035E,implyingaCAGRof1%from2023,mainlygrowingtogetherwithChina’seconomyasacyclicalindustry.Duringthisperiod,weexpectNEVpenetrationtoreach100%inthedomesticretailmarketfrom36%in2023,implyinganaverageincreaseof5pptperyear,drivenbycontinuedNEVtechnologyadvancementinbothhardwareandsoftware,aswellascharginginfrastructurebuild-upinChina.Wealsoexpectoverseassalesvolumeofpassengervehicles(includingbothexportvolumeandlocalproduction)toreach9mnunitsin2035Efrom4mnin2023,accountingfor10%oftheglobalex-Chinapassengervehiclemarketsize.For2024E,werecentlyraisedourretailsalesforecastby1%from21.7mnunitsto22.1mnunitstore?ecttheincrementaldemandfromthegovernment’sautotrade-insubsidy,leadingto2%yoygrowth(YTDat3%yoy).OurNEVpenetrationrateincreasedfrom43%to45%(8M24at44.6%).Forexports,weforecast5.4mnunitsin2024E,+22%yoy,(8M24at30%yoy).Intermsofcapacity,weestimatetheindustrywillhave47mnpassengervehicleproductioncapacitybytheendof2024E,outofwhich20mnwillbeNEVsand28mnICEvehicles.WebelievethepeakofChina’sNEVcapacityexpansionwasin2023,whereatotalof5.4mnproductioncapacitywasadded,whichdrovetheNEVcapacityutilizationratedownto54%in2023from60%in2022.For2024E,weestimateincrementalcapacityadditionsof3.2mn,mainlyfromBYD,LiAuto,Xiaomi,andSeres,whichshouldhelptheutilizationraterecoverbackto61%.Atthesametime,anumberofOEMshavecommentedonproductioncapacitycutsfortheirICEfactories,suchasNissan(Link)andHonda(Link).Goingforward,weexpectslowerNEVcapacityadditions,asweseeanincrementalnumberofcompaniesbecomingmorerationalintermsofexpansionunderthecurrentintensifyingcompetitionenvironment.Forexample,BYDexpectscapextopeakoutmorelikelyin2023-2024andfuturecapacityexpansiontoslowdowncomparedtothepast2years,especiallyinthedomesticmarket;GACexpectsnofurthercapacityexpansioninthedomesticmarket;whileXPengexpectscapacitytobeunchangedin2024.Assuch,weexpecttheoverallNEVcapacityutilizationratetograduallyrecovertoamorehealthyandsustainablelevelgoingforwardandreach84%by2035E.WeexpectBYDtomorethantriplevehiclesalesto11mnunitswithtotalrevenueofRmb1.8trillion(orUS$253billion)by2035E,comparedwithsalesof3mnandrevenueofRmb602billion(orUS$83billion)in2023thankstorisingNEVpenetrationandoverseasexpansion.Asaresult,weexpectBYD’sGP/OPmargintoincreasefrom20%/6%in2023to22%/9%by2035E.Ontheotherhand,ROEshouldnormalizeto16%by2035Efrom24%in2023,astheimprovementinnetmargingetsoffsetbyalowerequitymultiplierduetolowerleverage,whileassetturnoverremainslargelystableovertheperiod.WebelieveBYD’sgrowthwillmainlycomefromthebelowdrivers:1.TAMexpansion:GSglobalautoteamforecasttheglobalpassengervehiclemarkettoexpandfrom86mnunitssoldin2023to111mnunitsin2035E,withthetotalmarketvaluegrowingfromUS$2.7trilliontoUS$3.5trillion.2.Marketsharegains:WiththegrowingpenetrationofNEVsglobally,weforecastBYD’sdomesticpassengervehiclemarketsharetoincreasefrom13%in2023to36%in2035E,whenweexpect100%NEVpenetration;intheoverseasmarket,whereBYDhasjuststartedtappinginto,weseeitsmarketshareimprovingfromlessthan1%in2023to2.5%in2035E.Overall,weexpectBYDtotake10%oftheglobalpassengervehiclemarketshareby2035E,upfrom4%in2023.3.Revenueexpansion:Weexpectthedomesticmarkettoremaincompetitive,giventhefragmentedmarketstructurewithcloseto30NEVOEMsandanaveragecapacityutilizationrateof54%in2023;Whiletheoverseasmarketcurrentlyoffersapricingpremium,asthecompanyexpandsitsscaleandpenetratesintothemass-marketsegments,wealsoexpecttheblendedvehiclepricetograduallycomedown.Overall,weexpecttheblendedASPtodeclineata1%CAGRfromRmb151k(US$21k)in2023toRmb128k(US$18k),andvehiclerevenuetogrowata10%CAGRfromRmb457bn(US$63bn)in2023toRmb1,371bn(US$188bn)in2035E.4.Pro?tgrowth:Withgrowingpricingpowerwithinthesupplychainandeconomiesofscaleon?xedcostssuchasD&A,SG&A,andR&D,weexpectBYD’snetmargintoimprovefrom5%in2023to8%in2035E,drivingnetpro?tfromRmb30bn(US$4bn)in2023toRmb141bn(US$19bn)in2035E.120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000USJapanChinaEuropeIndiaOthers100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%USJapanChinaEuropeIndiaOthersTotalInourbasecaseforBYD,werecognizethecurrentgeopoliticalrisksincertainmarketsandmakerelativelyconservativeassumptionsregardingBYD’sglobalmarketaccessopportunities.Thatbeingsaid,theglobalmarketdynamicscouldhavecyclesandapotentialre-couplingcannotberuledout.LookingatToyota-anautoindustryleaderwithglobalsuccess-asabenchmark,wenotethatBYD’scurrentvehiclesalesvolumeofbetween3-4mnunitsissimilartoToyota’ssalesvolume30yearsago,whilerevenuescaleandmarginpro?lesarealsosimilar.Inourbasecase,weexpectBYDtoachieve9%/10%globalpassengervehiclemarketshareby2030E/2035EconsideringthehighentrybarrierinmarketssuchasNorthAmerica,comparedtoToyota’sglobalmarketshareof10%/12%in2000/2005.InablueskyscenariowheretheNorthAmericamarketsareaccessibleandBYDcanachieveglobalexpansiontoreachthe10%/12%marketsharelevelthatToyotadidin2000/2005,thiswouldimplytotalvehiclesalesof10.0mnin2030E(6.9mnindomesticmarketunchanged,and3.1mninoverseasmarkets)/13.8mnin2035E(8.5mnindomesticmarketunchanged,and5.3mninoverseasmarkets).Basedontheseassumptions,withourassumptionsonpricingunchanged,ourscenarioanalysisunderaglobalexpansionblueskyscenarioimplies16%/29%highervehiclesalesvolume,14%/25%higherrevenue,21%/38%highergrosspro?t,59%/80%higherEBIT,8%/19%highercapex,and40%/49%higherfreecash?owin2030E/2035Evs.ourbasecase.nRevenue:WeforecastBYDtoreachtotalvehiclesalesof11mnunitsgloballywithrevenueofRmb1.8trillion(orUS$253billion)by2035E.Weexpectthedomesticmarketwillcontinuetobecompetitive.Whiletheoverseasmarketcurrentlyoffersapricingpremium,asthecompanyexpandsitsscaleandpenetratesintothemass-marketsegments,wealsoexpecttheblendedvehiclepricetograduallycomedown.Overall,weexpectblendedASPtodeclineata1%CAGRfromRmb151k(US$21k)in2023toRmb128k(US$18k)by2035E.nGrosspro?t:WeexpectBYD’sGPmargintoincreasefrom20%in2023to22%by2035E.Giventheintensi?edpricecompetitioninthedomesticmarket,weexpectBYD’sdomesticvehiclegrossmargintograduallydeclinefrom24.2%in2024toandtroughat22.7%in2030E.StartingFrom2031E,weexpectdomesticvehiclegrossmargintoincreaseto26.2%in2035Ethankstonormalizationofdomesticcompetition.Weexpectoverseasvehiclegrossmargintobe26%by2035Evs.29%/27%in2023/2024Eoncontinuedglobalexpansion.nNetincome:Withincreasingpricingpoweronthesupplychainandeconomiesofscaleon?xedcostsuchasD&A,SG&A,andR&D,weexpectnetmargintoimprovefrom5%in2023to8%by2035E,drivingnetpro?tfromRmb30bn(US$4bn)in2023toRmb141bn(US$19bn)in2035E.nBalancesheet:BYDisabletomanageahealthyworkingcapitalandoperatewithnegative90daysofcashconversioncyclewitha51%netcashtoequityratioin2023.Goingforward,wemodelthecashconversioncycletoreturntonegative10daysby2035Ewiththenetcashtoequityratioimprovingto121%in2035E.nCash?ow:BYDgeneratedRmb28/43/48bnfreecash?owin2021-2023,onthebackofgrowingnetpro?tandhealthyworkingcapitalmanagement.Asproductioncapacityscalesup,wemodelBYD’scapexintensitytoeasefrom20.3%ofrevenuein2023to4.9%in2035E.Wemodela30%dividendpayoutratioforBYD,unchangedvs.2023.WeexpandourDCFvaluationto2035EforBYD,withWACCandterminalgrowthrateunchangedat10.8%and2.0%,arrivingatatheoreticalvaluationdiscountedbackto2025EatRmb1,586bn(US$217bn),andpersharevalueofRmb545/HK$520fortheA/Hshare,whichimplies77%/63%upsidepotentialfromthecurrentsharepricelevel.Wekeepourbasecasetargetpricevaluationmethodologyof2030Ediscountedcash?ow(WACC10.8%,TGR2.0%)unchanged,andraiseour2024E-2026Enetpro?tby1%-4%onhighersalesvolumeinrecentmonths.Werollforwardthevaluationbaseyearfrom2024Eto2025E,andour12-monthDCF-basedtargetpricesincreaseby13%fortheA/HsharetoRmb368/HK$351,implying20%/10%upside.WemaintainourBuyIntensifyingelectricvehiclecompetition:Giventhatpeersareaggressivelydevelopingcompetingproductsandexpandingcapacity,thiscouldposepotentialrisktoBYD’slong-termmarketshare.ConsideringBYD’ssalesmainlypositionsinthemassmarket,thepressurecouldbeonboththevolumeandpricingside.WebelievewhetherBYDcangain/maintainitsdomesticmarketsharewithreasonablemarginiskeytowatch.buildingupitspresenceintheoverseasmarketatafastpace,itsglobalexpansionfacesmultipleuncertainfactors,includingcomplexityoflocaloperation,policychangesandgeopoliticalrisks.Ifthecompanyisunabletoachieveglobalsalesinlinewithourforecasts,revenueandearningscouldbelower-than-expected.Lower-than-expectedexternalbatterysales:Weestimateexternalbatterysalestoincreasefrom39.0GWhin2023to161GWhin2026E,whichismainlydrivenbyESSdemandandbatterysalestoTesla(GigaBerlin).IftheESSmarketsizegrowthislowerthanourCleanEnergyteam’sforecastsoranypotentialincreaseincompetitionforsalestoGigaBerlin,BYD’sexternalb