電力市場報(bào)告2023（英）

ElectricityMarket

Report2023

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates

policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,

affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,11associationcountriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationof

internationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

IEAmembercountries:

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanada

CzechRepublic

DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIrelandItaly

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

NetherlandsNewZealand

NorwayPolandPortugal

SlovakRepublic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

ArgentinaBrazil

China

Egypt

India

IndonesiaMorocco

Singapore

SouthAfricaThailand

Ukraine

ElectricityMarketReport2023

Abstract

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Abstract

Electricityiscentraltomanypartsoflifeinmodernsocietiesandwillbecomeevenmoresoasitsroleintransportandheatingexpandsthroughtechnologiessuchaselectricvehiclesandheatpumps.

Powergenerationiscurrentlythelargestsourceofcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsglobally,butitisalsothesectorthatisleadingthetransitiontonetzeroemissionsthroughtherapidrampingupof

renewablessuchassolarandwind.Atthesametime,thecurrentglobalenergycrisishasplacedelectricitysecurityandaffordabilityhighonthepoliticalagendainmanycountries.

TheInternationalEnergyAgency’sElectricityMarketReport2023

offersadeepanalysisofrecentpolicies,trendsandmarket

developments.Italsoprovidesforecaststhrough2025forelectricitydemand,supplyandCO2emissions–withadetailedstudyoftheevolvinggenerationmix.Thisyear’sreportcontainsa

comprehensiveanalysisofdevelopmentsinEurope,whichfacedavarietyofenergycrisesin2022.TheAsiaPacificregionalso

receivesspecialfocus,withitsfast-growingelectricitydemandandacceleratingcleanenergydeployment.

TheIEA’sElectricityMarketReporthasbeenpublishedsince2020.Itsrelevancegoesbeyondenergyandclimateissues,since

electricitysupplyimpactseconomies,regionaldevelopment,the

budgetsofbusinessesandhouseholds,andmanyotherareas.Itisindispensablereadingforanyoneinterestedinthemultifaceted

importanceofenergyinoureconomiesandsocietiestoday.

ElectricityMarketReport2023

Tableofcontents

IEACCBY4.0.

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 5

Globaloverview 11

Demand 12

Supply 20

Emissions 31

Wholesaleprices 34

Carbonpricingtrends 38

Regionalperspectives 41

AsiaPacific 42

Americas 63

Europe 74

Eurasia 93

MiddleEast 99

Africa 108

Generalannex 118

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Executivesummary

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ExecutiveSummary

Globalelectricitydemandgrowthslowedonlyslightlyin2022despiteenergycrisisheadwinds

Worldelectricitydemandremainedresilientin2022amidthe

globalenergycrisistriggeredbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.

Demandrosebyalmost2%comparedwiththe2.4%average

growthrateseenovertheperiod2015-2019.Theelectrificationofthetransportandheatingsectorscontinuedtoaccelerateglobally,withrecordnumbersofelectricvehiclesandheatpumpssoldin

2022contributingtogrowth.Nevertheless,economiesaroundthe

world,inthemidstofrecoveringfromtheimpactsofCovid-19,werebatteredbyrecord-highenergyprices.Soaringpricesforenergy

commodities,includingnaturalgasandcoal,sharplyescalated

powergenerationcostsandcontributedtoarapidriseininflation.Economicslowdownsandhighelectricitypricesstifledelectricitydemandgrowthinmostregionsaroundtheworld.

ElectricityconsumptionintheEuropeanUnionrecordeda

sharp3.5%declineyear-on-year(y-o-y)in2022astheregionwasparticularlyhardhitbyhighenergyprices,whichledtosignificant

demanddestructionamongindustrialconsumers.Exceptionallymildwinteraddedfurtherdownwardpressureonelectricityconsumption.ThiswastheEU’ssecondlargestpercentagedecreaseinelectricitydemandsincetheglobalfinancialcrisisin2009–withthelargest

beingtheexceptionalcontractionduetotheCovid-19shockin2020.

ElectricitydemandinIndiaandtheUnitedStatesrose,while

CovidrestrictionsaffectedChina’sgrowth.China’szero-Covidpolicyweighedheavilyonitseconomicactivityin2022,anda

degreeofuncertaintyremainsoverthepaceofitselectricity

demandgrowth.Wecurrentlyestimateittobe2.6%in2022,

substantiallybelowitspre-pandemicaverageofover5%inthe

2015-2019period.FurtherdataexpectedinduecoursewillprovidegreaterclarityontrendsinChinain2022,whichcouldalsohave

implicationsfortheglobalpicture.ElectricitydemandinIndiarosebyastrong8.4%in2022,duetoacombinationofitsrobustpost-pandemiceconomicrecoveryandexceptionallyhighsummer

temperatures.TheUnitedStatesrecordedasignificant2.6%y-o-y

demandincreasein2022,drivenbyeconomicactivityandhigherresidentialusetomeetbothheatingandcoolingneedsamidhottersummerweatherandacolder-than-normalwinter.

Low-emissionssourcesaresettocoveralmostallthe

growthinglobalelectricitydemandby2025

Renewablesandnuclearenergywilldominatethegrowthofglobalelectricitysupplyoverthenextthreeyears,together

meetingonaveragemorethan90%oftheadditionaldemand.

Chinaaccountsformorethan45%ofthegrowthinrenewable

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generationintheperiod2023-2025,followedbytheEUwith15%.Thesubstantialgrowthofrenewableswillneedtobeaccompaniedbyacceleratedinvestmentsingridsandflexibilityfortheir

successfulintegrationintothepowersystems.Theincreasein

nuclearoutputresultsfromanexpectedrecoveryinFrenchnucleargenerationasmoreplantscompletetheirscheduledmaintenance,andfromnewplantsstartingoperations,largelyinAsia.

Globalelectricitygenerationfrombothnaturalgasandcoalisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatbetween2022and2025.Whilegas-firedgenerationintheEuropeanUnionisforecasttodecline,significantgrowthintheMiddleEastwillpartlyoffsetthisdecrease.

Similarly,dropsincoal-firedgenerationinEuropeandtheAmericaswillbematchedbyariseinAsiaPacific.However,thetrendsin

fossil-firedgenerationremainsubjecttodevelopmentsintheglobaleconomy,weatherevents,fuelpricesandgovernmentpolicies.

DevelopmentsinChina,wheremorethanhalfoftheworld’scoal-firedgenerationoccurs,willremainakeyfactor.

China’sshareofglobalelectricityconsumptionisforecasttorisetoone-thirdby2025,comparedwithone-quarterin2015.

Overthenextthreeyears,morethan70%ofthegrowthinglobalelectricitydemandissettocomefromChina,IndiaandSoutheastAsiacombined.Emerginganddevelopingeconomies’growthis

accompaniedbyacorrespondingriseindemandforelectricity.Atthesametime,advancedeconomiesarepushingforelectrificationtodecarbonisetheirtransportation,heatingandindustrialsectors.

Asaresult,globalelectricitydemandisexpectedtogrowatamuch

fasterpaceof3%peryearoverthe2023-2025periodcomparedwiththe2022growthrate.Thetotalincreaseinglobalelectricity

demandofabout2500terawatt-hours(TWh)outto2025ismorethandoubleJapan'scurrentannualelectricityconsumption.

Nevertheless,uncertaintiesexistregardingthegrowthofelectricitydemandinChina.Whilethecountryrecentlyeaseditsstringent

CovidrestrictionsinearlyDecember2022,thefullextentoftheeconomicimpactsremainunclear.

Afterreachinganall-timehighin2022,power

generationemissionsaresettoplateauthrough2025

GlobalCO2emissionsfromelectricitygenerationgrewin2022ataratesimilartothe2016-2019average.Theirincreaseof1.3%in2022isasignificantslowdownfromthestaggering6%risein

2021,whichwasdrivenbytherapideconomicrecoveryfromtheCovidshock.Nonetheless,electricitygeneration-relatedCO2

emissionsreachedarecordhighin2022.

Theshareofrenewablesintheglobalpowergenerationmixisforecasttorisefrom29%in2022to35%in2025.Asrenewablesexpand,thesharesofcoal-andgas-firedgenerationaresettofall.Asaresult,emissionsofglobalpowergenerationwillplateauto

2025anditsCO2intensitywillfurtherdeclineinthecomingyears.

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TheEuropeanUnionsawgas-firedgenerationincreaseduringaturbulent2022

Duetohistoricdroughtconditions,hydropowergenerationin

Europewasparticularlylowin2022.Italysawadropin

hydropowergenerationofmorethan30%comparedwithits2017-2021average,followedcloselybySpain.Similarly,Francerecorded

a20%declineinitshydrooutputcomparedwiththepreviousfive-yearaverage.

NucleargenerationintheEuropeanUnionwas17%lowerin

2022thanin2021duetoclosuresandunavailabilities.Plant

closuresinGermanyandBelgiumreducedtheavailablenuclear

capacityin2022.Atthesametime,Francefacedrecord-lownuclearavailabilityduetoongoingmaintenanceworkandotherchallengesinitsnuclearfleet.Theconstrainednuclearoutputandlow

hydropowersupplyinEurope–combinedwithreduced

dispatchablecapacityduetopreviousretirementsofthermalgenerationplants–putadditionalpressureonremaining

dispatchablecapacitiestomeetdemand.Asaresult,although

variablerenewablegenerationgrewandrecord-highgasprices

supportedfuel-switchingfromgastocoal,gas-firedgenerationgrewin2022by2%intheEuropeanUnion.Thesefactorshavealso

contributedtosignificantchangesinthetraditionalimport-export

structureofelectricityinEurope:FrancebecameanetimporterandtheUnitedKingdomanetexporterforthefirsttimeindecades.

Inordertoincreasethesecurityofelectricitysupply,reservecapacitiesofconventionalpowergenerationhavebeen

broughtbackinEuropeforthe2022-2023and2023-2024

winters.Similarly,someplantsthatwerepreviouslysettobe

decommissionedwerealsoextended.Germanyhadthehighest

shareofsuchplantsinEurope,havingdelayedtheplanned

shutdownofitsthreeremainingnuclearreactors,aswellas

delayingtheclosureorreactivatingfossil-firedplantsthatmakeup15%ofitscurrentfossil-firedgenerationcapacity.AnincreasedriskofpoweroutageswasreportedinsomeEuropeancountriesduringseveralweeksofcoldweathercombinedwithlower-than-averagehydroandnuclearoutput.Securityofsupplywasachievedthroughsuccessfulshort-termplanningandmanagement.

WhiletheCO2intensityofglobalpowergeneration

decreasedin2022,itincreasedintheEuropeanUnion

After2021,2022marksthehighestpercentagegrowthinCO2emissionsofEUpowergenerationsincetheoilcrisesofthe

1970s,recordinga4.5%year-on-yeargrowth.Excludingthe2021post-pandemicrebound,theEuropeanUnionalsosawin2022thehighestabsolutegrowthinpowergenerationemissionssince2003.Thiswasmainlyduetoariseincoal-firedgenerationofmorethan6%instarkcontrasttothealmost8%averageannualrateof

declineincoal-firedgenerationoverthepre-pandemicperiodof2015-2019.

ThesetbackintheEuropeanUnionwillbetemporary,however,aspowergenerationemissionsareexpectedtodecreaseon

averagebyabout10%annuallythrough2025.Bothcoal-andgas-

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firedgenerationareexpectedtoseesharpfalls,withcoaldecliningby10%andgasbyalmost12%annuallyonaverageoverthe

outlookperiodasrenewablesrampupandnucleargenerationrecovers.

Electricitypricesremainhighinmanyregions,withrisksoftightsupplyinEuropenextwinter

Theincreaseinwholesaleelectricitypriceswasmost

pronouncedinEuropein2022,wheretheywere,onaverage,

morethantwiceashighasin2021.Theexceptionallymildwintersofarin2022/23inEuropehashelpedtemperwholesaleelectricity

prices,buttheyremainhighcomparedwithrecentyears.Elevatedfuturespricesforwinter2023/24reflecttheuncertaintiesregardinggassupplyinEuropeoverthecomingyear.

IntheEuropeanUnion,awiderangeofresponsestothe

energycrisishavebeenobserved.Inordertoreducerelianceonfossilfuelsandtoincreaseresiliencetopriceshocks,theEuropean

CommissionpublisheditsREPowerEUplaninMay2022to

acceleratecleanenergydeployment.Atthesametime,discussionsaboutelectricitymarketdesigngainedmomentumduetosoaring

wholesaleprices,andtheCommissionlaunchedaconsultationonmarketdesignreform.Todampentheeffectsofhighelectricity

pricesonconsumers,manycountriesintroducedmeasuressuchastheregulationofwholesaleandretailprices;revenuecapsoninfra-marginaltechnologiessuchasrenewables,nuclearandcoal-

plants;reductionsofenergytaxesandVAT;anddirectsubsidies.

Whilesuchmarketinterventionscanhelpmitigatetheimpactsoftheenergycrisis,thepotentialcreationofuncertaintyintheinvestmentlandscapeneedstobeminimisedtoensurethatresponsestothe

crisisdonotcomeattheexpenseofmuch-neededinvestment.

Affordabilitywillcontinuetobeachallengeforemerginganddevelopingeconomies

Globally,higherelectricitygenerationcostsin2022were

drivenbysurgingenergycommodityprices.Whilethecost

increasesweremoremoderateincountrieswithregulatedtariffs

andlong-termfuelsupplyagreements(oil-indexedLNG,long-termcontractsorfuelsupplycontracts),regionsdependentonshort-termmarketsforfuelprocurementwereseverelyaffected.Inparticular,record-highLNGpricesledtodifficultiesforSouthAsiancountriestryingtoprocuregasforthepowersector,whichcontributedto

blackoutsandrationingofelectricityintheregion.Ifpricesofenergycommoditiesremainelevated,fuelprocurementwillcontinuetobeaseriousissueforemerginganddevelopingeconomies.

NuclearpowerisgatheringpaceinAsia,curbingtheCO2intensityofpowergeneration

TheenergycrisishasrenewedinterestintheroleofnuclearpowerincontributingtoenergysecurityandreducingtheCO2

intensityofpowergeneration.InEuropeandtheUnitedStates,discussionsonthefutureroleofnuclearintheenergymixhaveresurfaced.Atthesametime,otherpartsoftheworldarealready

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seeinganaccelerateddeploymentofnuclearplants.Asaresult,globalnuclearpowergenerationissettogrowonaverageby

almost4%over2023-2025,asignificantlyhighergrowthratethanthe2%over2015-2019.Thismeansthatineveryyearto2025,about100TWhofadditionalelectricityissettobeproducedbynuclearpower,theequivalentofaboutone-eighthofUSnuclearpowergenerationtoday.

Morethanhalfofthegrowthinglobalnucleargenerationto

2025comesfromjustfourcountries:China,India,JapanandKorea.Amongthesecountries,whileChinaleadsintermsof

absolutegrowthfrom2022to2025(+58TWh),Indiaissettohavethehighestpercentagegrowth(+81%),followedbyJapan.This

resultsfromtheJapanesegovernment’spushtorampupnucleargenerationinordertoreducerelianceongasimportsand

strengthenenergysecurity.OutsideAsia,theFrenchnuclearfleetprovidesmorethanone-thirdoftheabsolutegrowthinglobal

nucleargenerationto2025asitgraduallyrecovers.

Extremeweathereventshighlighttheneedforincreasedsecurityofsupplyandresilience

Inaworldwhereboththedemandandsupplyofelectricityarebecomingincreasinglyweather-dependent,electricitysecurityrequiresincreasedattention.Alongwiththehighcostofelectricitygeneration,theworld’spowersystemsalsofacedchallengesfromextremeweathereventsin2022.Inadditiontothedroughtin

Europe,therewereheatwavesinIndia,wherethehottestMarchin

overacenturywasrecorded,resultinginthecountry’shighesteverpeakinpowerdemand.Similarly,centralandeasternChinawere

hitbyheatwavesanddrought,whichcauseddemandforair

conditioningtosurgeamidreducedhydropowergenerationin

Sichuan.TheUnitedStatessawseverewinterstormsinDecember,triggeringmassivepoweroutages.Mitigatingtheimpactsofclimatechangerequiresfasterdecarbonisationandaccelerateddeploymentofcleanenergytechnologies.Atthesametime,asthecleanenergytransitiongatherspace,theimpactofweathereventsonelectricitydemandwillintensifyduetotheincreasedelectrificationofheating,whiletheshareofweather-dependentrenewableswillcontinuetogrowinthegenerationmix.Insuchaworld,increasingtheflexibility

ofthepowersystemswhileensuringsecurityofsupplyandresiliencewillbecrucial.

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Globaloverview

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Demand

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Globalelectricitydemandgrowtheasedin2022,butissettoacceleratefrom2023,ledbyAsia

TheenergycrisissparkedbytheRussianFederation’s(hereafter

“Russia”)invasionofUkrainehasbeencharacterisedbyrecord-highcommodityprices,weakereconomicgrowthandhighinflation.

Higherfuelpricesincreasedthecostofelectricitygenerationaroundtheworld,puttingdownwardpressureonconsumptioninmany

regions.Despitetheworseningcrisis,globalelectricitydemandremainedrelativelyresilient,growingbyalmost2%in2022.

By2025,forthefirsttimeinhistory,Asiawillaccountforhalfoftheworld’selectricityconsumptionandone-thirdofglobalelectricitywillbeconsumedinChina.Overtheoutlookperiod,globalelectricity

demandissettogrowatanacceleratedpace,byanannualised

3%,aselectricityconsumptionincreasesinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs),ledbythePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter“China”),IndiaandSoutheastAsia.

Astheenergycrisisabates,globalelectricitydemandgrowthissettorisefrom2.6%in2023toanaverage3.2%in2024-2025.This

strongergrowthiswellabovethepre-pandemicrateof2.4%

observedinthe2015-2019period.Indeed,by2025demandwill

increaseby2500TWhfrom2022levels,whichmeansthatoverthenextthreeyearstheelectricityconsumptionaddedeachyearis

roughlyequivalenttothatoftheUnitedKingdomandGermany

combined.MorethanhalfoftheincreasewillcomefromChina.TheremaininggrowthwilllargelytakeplaceinIndiaandSoutheastAsia.

InChina,electricitydemandgrowthwassubduedonweakereconomicactivityin2022,risingatanestimated2.6%,and

significantlybelowitstrendof5.4%in2015-2019.Chinaisbyfar

theworld’slargestelectricityconsumerat31%ofglobaldemandin2022.For2023-2025weexpectanaverageannualgrowthof5.2%.

InIndia,therobustpost-pandemicrecoverycontinuedtosupportstrongelectricitydemandofover8.4%in2022,whichwas

substantiallyhigherthantheaverageannualgrowthrateof5.3%seeninthe2015-2019period.Thepeaksummerseasonalso

arrivedearlyin2022,resultinginthehottestMarchinovera

century.ElectricitydemandfromMarchtoJulywas12%higherthanthesameperiodin2021.Forthe2023-2025period,weexpect

slightlyslowergrowth,averaging5.6%peryear.

ElectricitydemandintheEuropeanUnion(EU)fell3.5%in2022,withspikingelectricityprices,demanddestructioninelectricity-

intensiveindustries,energysavingmeasuresandamildwinterallcontributingtothedecline.WeexpectEUdemandtogrowby

around1.4%onaveragein2023-2025.

IntheUnitedStates,electricitydemandroseby2.6%in2022,

surpassingpre-Covidlevels.Butanexpectedeconomicslowdownin2023isexpectedtoleadtoadeclineofabout0.6%,before

returningtogrowthof1.2%in2024and1.3%in2025.

InAfrica,electricitydemandroseby1.5%in2022,withgrowth

temperedbybothloftyenergypricesandhighinflationrates.Our

2023-2025outlookfortheregionshowsmuchstrongergrowthofanaverage4.1%,ledbyapost-crisiseconomicrecovery.

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Outto2025,morethan70%ofthegrowthinglobalelectricitydemandissettocomefrom

China,IndiaandSoutheastAsiacombined

Year-on-yearrelativeglobalchangeinelectricitydemand,Year-on-yearchangeinelectricitydemandbyregion,2019-2025

2015-2025

Electricitydemandgrowth

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

TWh

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

HistoricaldemandUpdatedforecast

Previousforecast(July2022)

IEA.CCBY4.0.

1500

1300

1100

900

700

500

300

100

-100

-300

-500

2019202020212022202320242025

China

UnitedStatesONetchange

India

EuropeanUnion

SoutheastAsiaOthers

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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TWh

18%

18%

16%

25%

33%

13%

10%

5%

By2025,Asiawillaccountforhalfoftheworld’selectricityconsumptionandone-thirdofglobal

electricitywillbeconsumedinChina

Evolutionofglobalelectricitydemandbyregion(left)andregionalshares(right),1990-2025

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

19901995200020052010201520202025

oChinaaOtherAsiaaAfricaaRestoftheworld

1990200020152025UnitedStates&OECDEurope

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Globaleconomicgrowthshowssignsofresiliencebutcontinuestofacechallenges

Theglobaleconomycontinuestofacemyriadchallengesinthe

wakeofRussia’swarinUkraineandtheriseincentralbankratesaimedatcombatingpersistentinflation.TheInternationalMonetaryFund’s(IMF)

January2023WorldEconomicOutlook

provides

forecastsupto2024andshowsglobalGDPgrowthof6.2%in2021contractingto3.4%in2022andeasingto2.9%in2023.By2024,growthincheshigheragain,to3.1%.Thelatestforecastrepresentsdownwardrevisionsof0.2%,0.7%and0.3%,respectively,

comparedwiththe

April2022forecast,

whichunderpinnedourJulyupdate.TheJanuary2023outlook,however,wasslightlymore

optimisticthanthepreviousOctober2022

forecast

fortheshort

term,withglobalGDPgrowthforboth2022and2023raisedby

0.2percentpoints.TheOctoberoutlook,whichprovidedprojectionsupto2027,forecastaglobalGDPgrowthrateof3.4%in2025.

FortheUnitedStates,theIMFreviseditslatestGDPestimateto

2%for2022from3.7%inAprilanditsoutlookto1.4%from2.3%

for2023.Growthisforecastataslower1%in2024.Thecontractingtrendreflectspersistentandbroadeninginflationpressuresand

higherinterestratesthatwillcontinuetotemperpurchasingpower.

2025growthfromtheOctoberoutlookis1.8%.

FortheEuroarea,GDPgrowthisestimatedintheJanuaryoutlookat3.5%for2022beforeplummetingtojust0.7%in2023andthenrecoveringto1.6%in2024.Thelatestforecastshowsasharp

downwardrevisionfromtheAprilestimateof2.3%for2023.Theweakeroutlooklargelyreflectsthespillovereffectsfromthewarin

UkraineandratehikesfromtheEuropeanCentralBank,whicharepartiallyoffsetbylowerwholesaleenergypricesandsupportfromenergypricecontrols.For2025,agrowthof1.9%wasforecastintheOctoberoutlook.

Underpressurefromitszero-Covidpolicy,China’seconomyslowedfromthepre-pandemicaveragegrowthof6.7%between2015-2019to3%in2022.However,thecountry’ssuddeneasingofitsstringentpandemicrestrictionspromptedanupwardrevisionto5.2%for

2023,upthreepercentagepointsfromtheOctoberprojectionsbutsimilartoits5.1%estimateinApril.Growthisforecasttoslowto4.5%in2024.TheOctoberforecastestimatedgrowthof4.6%for2025.

TheGDPgrowthforIndiaisestimatedat6.8%for2022.The

outlookwasreviseddownwardinJanuaryto6.1%from6.9%for

2023,largelyduetosloweconomicgrowthinitstradingpartner

countries.GDPgrowthfor2024wasunchangedat6.8%.The2025forecastfromthepreviousOctoberoutlookis6.8%.

Sub-SaharanAfrica’sGDPgrowthisestimatedtoeasefrom4.7%in2021to3.8%in2022,duetohigherinflationandslower-than-

expectedprogressonpovertyreduction.However,economicgrowthwillspeedupfrom3.8%in2023toabove4%in2024and2025.

TheIMFexpectsLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean’sGDPtogrowby3.9%in2022,1.8%in2023and2.1%in2024.Octoberforecastfor2025was2.5%.

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ThewarinUkraine,energycrisisandpersistentinflationsuppresstheeconomicoutlook

RealGDP,annualchange

9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%

Grossdomesticproductgrowthassumptionsbycountryandregion,2022-2025

2022

2023

2024

2025

World

2022

2023

2024

2025

UnitedStates

2022

2023

2024

2025

Euroarea

2022

2023

2024

2025

UnitedKingd