伊朗總統(tǒng)選舉情況分析報告-外文版培訓課件2024.7temu

POLITICS

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SOCIETYIran:presidentialelectionCHAPTER

01OverviewIranIran:Totalpopulationfrom2019to2029(inmillioninhabitants)TotalpopulationofIran202910091.8790.9690.0689.1788.2987.4186.55908070605040302010085.6984.8484.0483.082019202020212022*2023*2024*2025*2026*2027*2028*2029*3Description:ThisstatisticshowsIran'stotalpopulationfrom2019to2021,withprojectionsupuntil2029.In2021,thetotalpopulationofIranamountedtoapproximately84.84millioninhabitants.ReadmoreNote(s):*Estimates.ReadmoreSource(s):IMFIran:totalfertilityratefrom2003to2022TotalfertilityrateofIran2003-20222.12.12.02.01.91.91.81.81.71.71.62003

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20224Description:In2022,thetotalfertilityrateinIranremainednearlyunchangedataround1.68childrenperwoman.Butstill,thefertilityratereacheditslowestvalueoftheobservationperiodin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Iran;2003to2022Source(s):WorldBankIran:Agestructurefrom2012to2022AgestructureinIran2012-2022Ages0-14Ages15-64Ages65andabove1.2%1%5.29%5.44%5.6%5.79%6%6.25%6.52%6.81%7.11%68.9%7.38%7.62%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0%72.38%72.01%71.43%70.74%70.21%69.77%69.38%69.09%68.81%68.81%22.55%201322.97%201423.47%201523.79%201623.97%201724.11%201824.11%201923.99%202023.81%202123.57%202222.33%20125Description:ThisstatisticshowstheagestructureofIraninhabitantsfrom2012to2022.In2022,about23.57percentofinhabitantswereaged0to14years,whileapproximately68.81percentwereaged15to64,and7.62percentofIraninhabitantswereaged65orolder.ReadmoreNote(s):IranSource(s):WorldBankIran:Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)from2019to2029(inbillionU.S.dollars)GrossdomesticproductofIran20297006005004003002001000201920202021202220232024*2025*2026*2027*2028*2029*6Description:Thegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)incurrentpricesinIranwasforecasttocontinuouslyincreasebetween2024and2029byintotal112.1billionU.S.dollars(+24.15percent).Aftertheninthconsecutiveincreasingyear,theGDPisestimatedtoreach576.24billionU.S.dollarsandthereforeanewpeakin2029.ReadmoreNote(s):Iran;2019to2029;*Estimate.Figureshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):IMFIran:Unemploymentratefrom1999to2023UnemploymentrateofIran202314.5%13.68%13.5%12.8%12.62%12.23%12.2%12.49%12.27%12.5%12.12%11.68%12.1%12.11%11.54%11.5%

11.2%11.2%11.17%10.68%10.74%10.6%10.48%10.6%10.3%10.5%9.69%9.28%9.5%9.09%

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20237Description:ThisstatisticshowstheunemploymentrateofIranfrom1999to2023.In2023,Iran'sunemploymentratewasestimatedtoamountto9.1percentofthetotallaborforce.?EmploymentandeconomyinIranIran’sunemploymentratehasbeenabove10percentforthelast10years,andthisrateisestimatedtohavepeakedin2014,whenestimatesreached14percent.Also,manyofthosewhoareconsideredemployedinIranarealsoconsideredunderemployed.UnemploymentinIranis[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Iran;*Estimate.Figureshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):WorldBankIran:Inflationratefrom1987to2029(comparedtopreviousyear)InflationrateofIran202960%50%40%30%20%10%0%8Description:Iran’sinflationraterosesharplyto34.69percentin2019andwasprojectedtoriseanother14percentagepointsbeforeslowlystartingtodecline.GiventherecentsanctionsbytheUnitedStatesregardingthenucleardeal,thisnumberhasbothpoliticalandeconomicimplications.ReadmoreNote(s):Iran;*Estimate.Figureshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):IMFIran:Ratioofmilitaryspendingtogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)from2012to2022Ratioofmilitaryexpendituretogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inIran20220.03%2.84%2.8%2.69%2.59%2.56%0.025%2.24%2.18%2.19%2.12%2.01%1.97%0.02%0.015%0.01%0.005%0%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120229Description:In2022,theratioofmilitaryexpendituretogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inIranincreasedby0.4percentagepoints(+18.26percent)since2021.Intotal,theratioamountedto2.59percentin2022.

ReadmoreNote(s):Iran;2012to2022Source(s):WorldBankCHAPTER

02ReviewofpoliticalsystemofIranFreedomscoreforpoliticalrightsinIranfrom2013to2024FreedomscoreforpoliticalrightsinIran2013-202487777654321066666666620132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202411Description:Accordingtothe2024FreedomHousesurvey,Iranscoredsevenonpoliticalrights,classifyingitasnotfreeontheinternationalFreedomHouseranking.Theaverageglobalscoreforpoliticalfreedomofcountrieswasbetweenthreeandfourwhichclassifiesthemaspartiallyfree.ReadmoreNote(s):Iran,MENA;2013to2024Source(s):FreedomHouseFreedomscoreofIranin2024,bypoliticalrightsofelectoralprocessFreedomscorebypoliticalrightsofelectoralprocessinIran20241.2111.00.80.60.40.20.00WasthecurrentheadofgovernmentorotherchiefWerethecurrentnationallegislativerepresentatives

Aretheelectorallawsandframeworkfair,andarenationalauthorityelectedthroughfreeandfairelections?electedthroughfreeandfairelections?theyimplementedimpartiallybytherelevantelectionmanagementbodies?12Description:Accordingtothesource,asof2024IranhadaFreedomHousescoreofonepointforthesubcategory"Wasthecurrentheadofgovernmentorotherchiefnationalauthorityelectedthroughfreeandfairelections?"?oftheelectoralprocess.Iranscoredsevenpointsonoverallpoliticalrightsinthefreedomsurvey,classifyingitasnotfreeontheinternationalFreedomHouseranking.Theaverageglobalscoreforpoliticalfreedomofcountrieswasbetweenthreeandfourwhichclassifies[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Iran,MENA;2024Source(s):FreedomHouseFreedomscoreofIranin2024,bypoliticalrightsofpoliticalpluralismandparticipationFreedomscorebypoliticalrightsofpoliticalpluralisminIran2024FreedomHousescore(0to4)0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2Dothepeoplehavetherighttoorganizeindifferentpoliticalpartiesorothercompetitivepoliticalgroupingsoftheirchoice,andisthesystemfreeofundueobstaclestotheriseandfallofthesecompetingpartiesorgroupings?0Istherearealisticopportunityfortheoppositiontoincreaseitssupportorgainpowerthroughelections?1Arethepeople’spoliticalchoicesfreefromdominationbyforcesthatareexternal0tothepoliticalsphere,orbypoliticalforcesthatemployextrapoliticalmeans?Dovarioussegmentsofthepopulation(includingethnic,racial,religious,gender,LGBT+,andotherrelevantgroups)havefullpoliticalrightsandelectoralopportunities?113Description:Asof2024,Iranscoredonepointforthesubcategory"realisticopportunityfortheoppositiontoincreaseitssupportorgainpowerthroughelections".Iranscoredscoredsevenpointsonoverallpoliticalrightsofthefreedomsurvey,classifyingitasnotfreeontheinternationalFreedomHouseranking.Theaverageglobalscoreforpoliticalfreedomofcountrieswasbetweenthreeandfourwhichclassifiesthemaspartiallyfree.

ReadmoreNote(s):Iran,MENA;2024Source(s):FreedomHouseFreedomscoreofIranin2024,bypoliticalrightsofgovernmentfunctioningFreedomscorebypoliticalrightsofgovernmentfunctioninginIran2024FreedomHousescoring(0to4)14Description:Asof2024,IranscoredzeropointintheFreedomHousestudyforthesubcategory"dothefreelyelectedheadofgovernmentandnationallegislativerepresentativesdeterminethepoliciesofthegovernment?".Iranscoredsevenpointsonoverallpoliticalrightsofthefreedomsurvey,classifyingitasnotfreeontheinternationalFreedomHouseranking.Theaverageglobalscoreforpoliticalfreedomofcountrieswasbetweenthreeandfourwhichclassifiesthemaspartiallyfree.

ReadmoreNote(s):Iran,MENA;2024Source(s):FreedomHouseLongestrulingnationalleadersinauthoritariancountriesasofJuly2024,byyearsinofficeCurrentrulingnationalleadersinauthoritarianstates2024,bytimeinofficeYearsinoffice10

15052025303540455055PaulBiya,Cameroon***TeodoroObiangNguemaMbasogo,EquatorialGuinea**AliKhamenei,Iran494442DenisSassouNguesso,CongoRepublic********HajiHassanalBolkiahMu'izzaddinWaddaulah,Brunei*HunSen,Cambodia403939YoweriMuseweni,Uganda3838MswatiIII,EswatiniEmomaliRahmon,Tajikistan3131IsaiasAfwerki,ErirtreaAleksandrLukashenko,Belarus30DanielOrtega,Nicaragua*********AbdullahIIibnAlHussein,Jordan262515Description:ThelongestservingstateleaderinanauthoritariancountryasofJuly2024wasPaulBiya,thecurrentPresidentofCameroon.However,someseeTeodoroObiangNguemaMbasogo,thePresidentofEquatorialGuinea,asthelongestrulingleaderbecauseBiyawasPrimeMinisterfrom1975to1982beforeassumingtheroleofPresident.ObianghasruledEquatorialGuineasince1979,meaningthathehasheldofficefor43years.ObiangMbasogoseizedpowerinacoupd'etatfromhisuncle[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;July2024Source(s):FreedomHouse;UnitedNationsCountrieswiththelowestinternetfreedomindexscoreworldwideasof2023FreedomHouseIndexcountrieswiththelowestinternetfreedom2023Score05101520253035ChinaMyanmarIran91011Cuba20Russia21VietnamBelarusSaudiArabiaUzbekistanEthiopiaPakistanBahrainEgypt222525252626282816Description:In2023,?Chinahadthelowestinternetfreedomintheworld.?ThecountryrankedlastwithnineindexpointsintheFreedomHouseIndex,whereeachcountryreceivedanumericalscorefrom100(thefreest)to0(theleastfree).IranandMyanmarfollowed,scoringanindexpointof11and10ontheFreedomHouseIndex.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;June2022toMay2023;70countriesSource(s):FreedomHouseCHAPTER

03OpiniononthesnappresidentialectioninIran2024DistributionofpoliticalorientationinIranfromSeptember2021toJune2024ShareofpoliticalorientationinIran2021-2024ProponentsofregimechangeasapreconditionforchangeProponentsofstructuraltransformationandtransitionfromtheIslamicRepublicProponentsoftheprinciplesoftheIslamicRevolutionandtheSupremeLeaderProponentsofgradualreformwithintheframeworkoftheIslamicRepublicNoneofthem70%60%60.1%50%41.5%39.9%40%40%35.5%30%20%10%0%24.9%17.4%25.2%14.4%24.2%16.6%11%21.2%18.3%10.6%16.2%11.4%5.8%12.7%11.2%9.2%8.6%9.2%8.3%6.5%September2021February2022December2022February2024June202418Description:AsofJune2024,around35.5percentofsurveyedIranianswithintheIslamicRepublicofIranwereproponentsofregimechangeasapreconditionforchange.Atthesametime,only12.7percentofrespondentsbelievedingradualreformwithintheframeworkoftheIslamicRepublic.ReadmoreNote(s):Iran;June17to19,2024;77,216respondents;19yearsandolder;IraniancitizenslivinginIranSource(s):GAMAANDistributionofrespondent'swillingnesstovoteinthepresidentialelectiontochooseEbrahimRaisi'ssuccessorinIranJune2024ShareofrespondentswillingtovoteduringthepresidentialelectionIranJune2024ldon'tknowandwilldecidebasedthecircumstances12.1%Yes,Iwillvote22.4%No,Iwon'tvote65.5%19/statistics/1479227/iran-share-of-respondents-willing-to-vote-during-the-presidential-electionAsofJune2024,around65.5percentofsurveyedIranianswithintheIslamicRepublicofIranwillnotvoteinthepresidentialelectiontochooseEbrahimRaisi'ssuccessor.Only22.4percentofrespondentsplannedtovoteduringtheupcomingelection.ReadmoreNote(s):Iran;June17to19,2024;77,216respondents;19yearsandolder;IraniancitizenslivinginIranSource(s):GAMAANDistributionofrespondent'sspeculationoverthecauseofpresidentRaisi'shelicoptercrashJune2024ShareofrespondentsspeculationoverpresidentRaisi'shelicoptercrash2024Sabotagebyforeigncountriesplayedaroleinthiscrash5.8%Otherfactors3.1%Naturalfactors(suchastechnicalfaultsandweather)playedaroleinthiscrash13.0%Powerstruggleswithintheregimeplayedaroleinthiscrash51%Noopinion26.6%20Description:AsofJune2024,around51percentofsurveyedIranianswithintheIslamicRepublicofIranassumed,powerstruggleswithintheregimeplayedaroleinthishelicoptercrashofpresidentRaisi.EndofJune2024snapelectionsinIranwillbeheldtoselectpresidentRaisi'ssuccessor.ReadmoreNote(s):Iran;June17to19,2024;77,216respondents;19yearsandolder;IraniancitizenslivinginIranSource(s):GAMAANCHAPTER

04Presidentialelection2024resultsinIranRateofvoterturnoutforpresidentialelectionsintheIslamicRepublicofIranfrom1980to2024VoterturnoutratesinIran1980-2024Voterturnoutrate40%0%10%20%30%50%60%70%80%90%1980July1981October1981198567%64%74%55%55%1989199351%199780%200163%2005*60%200985%201373%73%2017*202149%2024**40%22Description:Duringthepresidentialelectionof2024inIran,Itisestimatedthatthevoterturnoutratewasabout40percent.The2024presidentialelectionwasasnapelection,toselectthesuccessorofpresidentSeyyedEbrahimRaisi,afterhepassedawayduringahelicoptercrashinMay2024,togetherwiththeforeignministerandseveralotherIranianofficials.ReadmoreNote(s):Iran;1980toJune28,2024Source(s):TheIranPrimerShareofvotesreceivedbypresidentialelectionwinnersintheIslamicRepublicofIr