宏觀及大類資產(chǎn)半年報(bào)：經(jīng)濟(jì)外升內(nèi)乏金與債皆可貴

>商品（10.1%美元（4.4%債券（-3.2%）。 4 4 7 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 21 21 21 22 22確定性和供應(yīng)鏈的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍在，或擾動(dòng)全球制造業(yè)的持國家國家2024-062024-052024-042024-032024-022024-012023-122023-112023-102023-092023-082023-0751.645.843.545.450.954.045.750.052.053.751.754.751.750.749.958.352.551.154.943.2美國歐元區(qū)德國法國英國希臘意大利日本韓國中國臺(tái)灣東盟越南泰國印尼馬來西亞墨西哥俄羅斯南非51.946.141.946.250.356.950.448.249.847.951.549.949.154.248.459.153.652.255.750.351.347.345.446.451.254.945.650.451.655.451.750.350.352.150.257.552.151.254.444.847.944.443.342.146.251.345.347.949.946.849.748.945.152.247.954.948.452.054.648.550.045.742.545.349.155.247.349.649.449.451.050.348.652.949.058.855.951.054.349.152.246.542.547.147.555.748.747.250.748.150.450.445.352.749.556.954.152.354.751.950.746.645.543.147.354.748.548.051.248.050.350.346.752.949.056.552.850.252.441.849.444.242.642.947.250.944.448.350.046.850.047.347.651.747.956.049.452.553.854.950.043.140.842.844.850.844.948.749.847.149.649.647.551.546.855.548.652.153.848.749.843.439.644.244.350.346.848.549.948.249.649.747.852.346.857.549.049.854.546.647.943.539.146.043.052.945.449.648.945.551.050.548.953.947.858.650.151.252.750.749.042.738.845.145.353.544.549.649.446.150.848.750.753.347.857.747.853.252.144.8年上半年美國新增非農(nóng)就業(yè)月均22.3萬人回落的趨勢(shì)上，美國就業(yè)市場(chǎng)已從過熱狀態(tài)逐漸降溫，但依然保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)健。與此同時(shí)，6政府消費(fèi)支出和投資總額%10.05.00.0-5.0商品和服務(wù)凈出口國內(nèi)私人投資總額%10.05.00.0-5.0-0-美國:GDP環(huán)比2021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-2021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-03%10.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0CPI環(huán)比CPI同比核心CPI環(huán)比CPI環(huán)比CPI同比2021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024-052.01.61.20.80.40.0-0.4美國:新增非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù):初值千人美國:失業(yè)率:季調(diào)80060040020002021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-045.04.54.03.53.0落。此外，歐元區(qū)較美國更早開啟降息，這也反映出其經(jīng)濟(jì)相%%0.80.0-0.82021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-0412.08.04.00.0——?dú)W元區(qū):制造業(yè)PMI歐元區(qū):服務(wù)業(yè)PMI%13.012.011.010.09.08.07.06.0——?dú)W元區(qū)20國:失業(yè)率:季調(diào)歐元區(qū):基準(zhǔn)利率(主要再融資利率)2007-062007-06人數(shù)80.060.040.020.00.0——企業(yè)面臨的地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)2011/062012/062013/062014/062015/062016/062017/062018/062019/062020/062021/062022/062023/062011/062012/062013/062014/062015/062016/062017/062018/062019/062020/062021/062022/062023/062024/06%75.065.055.045.035.025.0特朗普勝選概率2023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/032024/042024/052024/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/032024/042024/052024/06下讀數(shù)或有所降溫；供需缺口將在市場(chǎng)自身調(diào)節(jié)、政策引導(dǎo)下逐步彌合。15.010.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0工業(yè)生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)投資地產(chǎn)銷售出口PPICPI工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)2024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-054-2-4中國:GDP:季調(diào):環(huán)比%中國:GDP:不變價(jià):當(dāng)季同比2022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-06貿(mào)易差額（右軸）出口同比%進(jìn)口同比%60.045.030.015.0 0.0-15.0-30.02022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-2022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04億美元1,000.0800.0600.0400.0200.00.0201920222020202120232019202220202021202320240.6億元10,000.0非金融企業(yè)：活期存款占比億元10,000.00.55,000.00.40.02022-01-5,000.0地產(chǎn)優(yōu)化政策，需求端下調(diào)首付比例、取消貸款利率下限、松綁限購等，供給端央行設(shè)立3000億元保障性住房再貸款，用于支持地方國企收儲(chǔ)以消化存量庫存。地產(chǎn)政策的重點(diǎn)逐40.020.00.0-20.0——房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資制造業(yè)投資2015-102015-102016-042016-102017-042017-102018-042018-102019-042019-102020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-102024-04萬平方米100.075.050.025.00.020192022202020212019202220232024010203040506070809101112國內(nèi)貨幣政策掣肘減少、寬松的概率加大，而財(cái)政政策同樣有望加碼但預(yù)期不宜過202120222024202120222024億元50,000.040,000.030,000.020,000.010,000.00.0202340.020.00.0-20.0——廣義財(cái)政收入:累計(jì)值:同比廣義財(cái)政支出:累計(jì)值:同比2016-022016-112017-082018-052019-022019-112020-082021-052022-022022-2016-022016-112017-082018-052019-022019-112020-082021-052022-022022-112023-082024-05>能化（+4.75%工業(yè)品（+2.85%農(nóng)產(chǎn)品（+0.35%黑色（-10.93%中國債券1-6月收益率錄得2.69%，表明人民幣15.0%12.18%10.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%4.74%5.0%0.0%3.93%2.69%10.10%4.40%-3.16%-5.0%-3.16%-10.0%-8.01%-10.0%南華商品指數(shù)中國債券指數(shù)人民幣指數(shù)萬得全AMSCI全球CRB商品指數(shù)美元指數(shù)全球債券指數(shù)港股方面，1-6月恒生指數(shù)收漲3.94%，恒生科技收跌-5.57%；海外方面，美股受到AI1-6月走勢(shì)1-6月漲跌幅（%）現(xiàn)價(jià)1-6月走勢(shì)1-6月漲跌幅（%）現(xiàn)價(jià)2023年漲跌幅（%）-3.70-7.42-6.28-3.70-7.42-6.28 恒生指數(shù)恒生指數(shù)恒生科技恒生中國企業(yè)指數(shù)納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)德國DAX -8.83 -8.836331.865460.488164.127479.402797.82 5.578.865.379.40 收縮，指數(shù)下跌，市場(chǎng)投資者陷入悲觀。人民幣匯率同步承壓，自6月起單邊下跌，突破億元15,000.013,000.011,000.09,000.07,000.05,000.0成交額：21日移動(dòng)平均2023-031.51.31.10.90.70.50.3換手率:21日移動(dòng)平均2023-092023-128.07.06.05.04.03.0ma指數(shù)點(diǎn)位（右軸）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià) 均值+1STD均值+2STD 均值-1STD均值-2STD2022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052024-075,000.04,500.04,000.03,500.03,000.0指數(shù)點(diǎn)位（右軸）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)%均值+1STD--均值+2STD均值-2STD均值-1STD均值-2STD2.00.02022-052022-072022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052024-07點(diǎn)8,200.07,200.06,200.05,200.04,200.0倍60.050.040.030.020.010.00.0萬得全A萬得全A(除金融、石油石化)上證50滬深300中證500中證10002019-112021-022019-112021-022021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-06兩融余額億元20,000.018,000.02021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-06兩融余額億元20,00019,00018,00017,0002023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06北向資金:當(dāng)日凈買入額（右軸）北向資金:累計(jì)凈買入額2023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-063002000-100-20080.060.040.020.00.0-20.0-40.0萬得全A上證50滬深300 中證500中證1000中證20002024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-0620.010.00.0-10.0-20.0-30.0工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn):累計(jì)同比 ——工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn):兩年復(fù)合累計(jì)同比2022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-2022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024年上半年債市延續(xù)了去年末的牛市行情，經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面復(fù)蘇彈性不足是底色，市場(chǎng)地產(chǎn)迎來供需兩側(cè)齊發(fā)力的新政策，債市選擇交易平庸的現(xiàn)實(shí)，風(fēng)偏較低+資產(chǎn)荒的邏輯未荒”背景下機(jī)構(gòu)配置需求仍在，利率中長(zhǎng)期向下趨勢(shì)不改，創(chuàng)新低或只是時(shí)間問題。億元150,000100,00050,0000-50,000-100,000投放量?jī)|元150,000100,00050,0000-50,000-100,0002023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052.52.0一DR001DR007R001R0072024-042024-052024-062024-072024-042024-052024-062024-072.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.0億元2.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.0億元30,00020,00010,0000-10,000-20,0002023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)利率（國股轉(zhuǎn)貼：半年）2023-082023-122024-07%2.92.72.52.32.11.91.71.5變化（右軸）1月初國債收益曲線66月末國債收益曲線0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0-50.0-60.01Y3Y5Y7Y10Y30Y0.70.60.50.40.30.20.1國債期限利差:30Y-10Y國債期限利差:10Y-2Y2023-112024-012024-05鮑威爾釋放鴿派信號(hào)，市場(chǎng)降息預(yù)期大起；2024年初美國就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)仍然充滿韌勁，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)第二階段：搶跑降息預(yù)期+擔(dān)憂二次通脹+地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，三者億元2,500.02,300.02,100.01,900.01,700.0倫敦金現(xiàn)——美元指數(shù)（右軸）2023-082023-11108.0106.0104.0102.0100.098.0萬盎司8,000.07,500.07,000.06,500.06,000.05,500.05,000.0中國:官方儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn):黃金環(huán)比增加（右軸）2018-042018-2018-042018-102019-042019-102020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-102024-04120.0100.080.060.040.020.00.02024年上半年，銅作為基本金屬中漲幅較高的資產(chǎn)備受關(guān)注，其無視利空不斷上漲并第一階段：供需偏松，降息預(yù)期搖擺，銅價(jià)震蕩（1.慢，市場(chǎng)對(duì)2024年降息起