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02
03
11
23
01
INTRODUCTION
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
GLOBALBUSINESSANDMACROECONOMICTRENDSFOR2024
Inflation:AGradualRollback
GDP:SluggishGrowthPersists
InterestRates:ACauseforConcern
Labor:MarketsStillTightbutEasing
Energy:ContinuingOnaHigh
SEVENLEADERSHIPTHEMESFOR2024
SupplyChainReinvented:CraftingaResilientFutureStrategy
TheIntriguingPotentialofArtificialIntelligence
InvestinginaDigital,AI-FirstFuture
TheFutureofSupplierRelationshipManagementintheDigitalEra
ProcurementandFinance:PartnersinCostManagement
SustainableSuccess:ESGBackintheSpotlight
TalentCrunch:OvercomingthePeopleCrisis
CONCLUSION
24
NOTES
GEPOutlook2024
1
INTRODUCTION
AmidStress,StabilityEmerges
Thepastfouryearshavebeenanythingbutuneventful.Businesses—evenentiresocieties—havebeen
pushedtothebrink.WhilerecentdisasterssuchastheCOVID-19pandemicaremostlyintherearviewmirror,oldproblems,includingwar,loomominously.
Someconcernsarestartingtodissipate.Inflation
levelsappeartobeheadedbacktorecenthistorical
averages.Interestrateswilllikelybeginareductioncurvethroughout2024.ThejobmarketsofG7economiesareanticipatedtobecomemorebalanced.
Somenewdazzlingtoolshavepresentedthemselves
toleadingfirms.Digitalandartificialintelligence(AI)
technologiestookabigleapin2023andareexpectedtotakeanevenbiggeronein2024.
Abitofbreathingspacehasemerged.Procurementandsupplychainleaderscan,finally,lookalittlefurtheroutintothefutureandbegintomakelonger-termplansthanwerepossibleintherecentchallengingyears.
Featuringheavilywillbeinvestmentsinbigdataandincreatingrealimpactfromthelargedatasetsthat
companiesaccumulatebutdon’talwaysmanage.While
laggardswillwaitformarketsolutionstodevelop,leaders
willgainasymmetricimpactbyapplyingnewtechnologiestooldbusinessproblemsastheytakethefirststeps.
Supplychains,whichhaveexperiencedtumultuoustimes,havelargelystabilizedandleadersarereinvestingintheir
futurestrategy.Beyondupgradingresiliencyandevaluatingreshoring,theseleadingbusinessesarealsothinkingaboutenablingtheirenvironmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)goalsandcreatingaprovocativenewapproachtosupplierrelationshipmanagement.
With24yearsofexperiencemanagingover$300billioninspendannuallyforFortune500andGlobal2000
businesses,ourfirmofaccomplishedconsultantsand
technologyadvisorsoffersvaluableperspectivestohelpbusinessleaderschartasuccessful2024.
TheGEPOutlook2024:Procurement&SupplyChainreportcoverstheleadingtopicsandprioritiesthatwilldominatethecorporateagendain2024.
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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2
GEPOutlook2024
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
Problemsandprioritiesin2024havechangedfromthoseofrecentyears.Procurementandsupplychainleaders,whohavebeentaskedwithmuchmoreresponsibility
andaccountabilitysincethepandemic,willseeashiftintheirfocusasglobalgrowthslows,particularlyinChina,theworld’ssecond-largesteconomy.AlthoughinterestratesstubbornlyremainhighinG7economies,there
ishopeforreductionsonthehorizonascentralbanksconfrontslowinggrowth.
SupplyChainVolatility(Finally)Declines
Supplychainsbecameahouseholddiscussiontopicasglobalcompanieswadedthroughsupplyandserviceschallenges.Entering2024,thesituationhasimprovedandthereismeaningfulsupplychaincapacity,with
issuescausedbytransportcosts,staffshortagesanditemshortagesimprovingoverrecentyears.
DigitalandArtificialIntelligenceArrive
Despitetheriskofbeingcrushedbyitsownhype,AI
andotherdigitaltechnologiesbecomeactionableand
compellingformostprocurementandsupplychain
leadersin2024.Theusecasesarestartingtotakeholdandsignificantbenefitslookachievableinthenextyearandnearlycertaininthelongterm.
Gettingitright,however,willtakemoreworkthanis
commonlyrealized.Withdataasthefoundation,leaderswillneedtocultivateastrategythatenhancestheir
teams,createstrustandoffersasuperiortechnology
strategythanbefore.Thechangemanagementeffortrequiredmayrivalthescaleandcomplexityofcrisis-responseCOVID-19initiatives.
ESGIsBackintheSpotlight
ManyfirmssloweddowntheirESGtimelinesor
commitmentsin2023amidotherpriorities,including
inflationmitigation.LeadersarenowputtingESGback
ontheagendaandturningtoprocurementandsupply
chaintotakethenextbigleap.Thisinturnwilldrivea
needtopartnerwithfinanceandotherfunctionsinamoremeaningfulwaythanbefore.
EvolutionofTalentStrategy
Meetingtheseemergingrequirementswillprompta
majorre-evaluationoftalentacquisitionanddevelopment
strategiesin2024.Despiteanticipatedslowergrowth
ratesin2024,labormarketsinmostmajoreconomies
remaintightwithsome,liketheUnitedStatesofAmerica,
continuingtoseelowunemploymentrates.Procurement
andsupplychainleadersfacesignificantchallengesintheireffortstoattract,trainandretainemployees.
NewemployeeswillneedskillsinemergingprioritiessuchasESG,AIanddigitalwhilealsodemonstratingproficiencyinthetraditionalareasofcostefficiencyandresilience.Thisisatallask.In2024,wewillseeprocurementandsupply
chainleadersmakemajorcommitmentstogettheirtalentstrategyright.
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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3
GEPOutlook2024
GLOBALBUSINESSANDMACROECONOMICTRENDSFOR2024
Globalrecoveryisexpectedtobesluggishandunevenin2024afterageneralslowdownin2023.Economic
activityremainsbelowpre-pandemiclevelsinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomi
es.1
China’sgrowth,
impactedbyarealestatecrisisanddiminishingdomesticandexternaldemand,isforecasttodeceleratein2024.GiventhatChinacontributestooverathirdofglobalgrow
th,2a
slowdownmayhaverepercussionsbeyonditsborders,especiallyonitsmajortradingpartners.
Economicgrowthalsofacesheadwindsfromhighinterestrates,theRussia-Ukraineconflict,risinggeopoliticaltensionsintheMiddleEast,crudeoilproductioncutsandtheaftereffectsofthepandemic.
Inflation:AGradualRollback
Inflation,whichreachedmultidecadehighsin2022dueinparttotheRussia-Ukraineconflict,isdecliningentering2024.Globalinflationisforecasttofallfrom6.88%in2023to5.79%in20
24.3I
ntheU.S.andEuroArea,inflationratesareexpectedtocontinuetheirdownwardtrajectorythrough2024butmaynotachievetheircentralbanks’
targetof2%until2025.
InflationTrends2023:MonthlyPercentageChange
10.1%
6.7%
8.6%
6.5%
6.4%
4.3%
3.7%
5.0%
4.3%
3.2%
0%
Aug-23Sep-23
JAPAN
2.1%
Jan-23Feb-23
US
Mar-23Apr-23May-23
UKEUROAREA
Jun-23
CHINA
Jul-23
INDIA
Source:FinancialTimes'GlobalInflationTracker,GEPAnalysis
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GEPOutlook2024
IntheU.S.,inflationisprojectedtoaverage4.08%in2023anddecreaseto2.76%in2024.IntheEuroArea,it
isanticipatedtoaverage5.55%in2023andreduceto3.25%in2024,higherthanpre-pandemiclevels.Inflation,whichstarteddecliningin2023,isestimatedtodipfurthermainlyduetohighinterestrates.
Chinaisfacingchallengescontrollingdeflationarypressures.Itreportedapersistentdecreaseinboththe
ConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)andtheProducerPriceIndex(PPI)inthelatterpartof2023.Inresponse,theChinese
governmentistakingcounter-cyclicalmeasurestoboostdomesticdemand,increasespendingandstabilizeeconomicgrowth.
InflationTrends:AnnualPercentageChange(HistoricandProjected)
Projections
Country/RegionalClassification
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Global
4.70
8.71
6.88
5.79
4.62
AdvancedEconomies
3.10
7.27
4.63
2.96
2.24
UnitedStates
4.68
7.98
4.08
2.76
2.43
UnitedKingdom
5.38
10.52
5.20
2.37
2.00
EuroArea
2.59
8.38
5.55
3.25
2.16
Japan
-0.23
2.49
3.21
2.88
1.94
EmergingandDevelopingAsia
2.21
3.81
2.61
2.74
2.86
ASEAN-5
2.00
4.81
3.58
2.54
2.44
China
0.85
1.88
0.66
1.69
2.16
India
5.51
6.66
5.46
4.55
4.09
MiddleEastandCentralAsia
12.77
13.99
18.01
15.17
10.55
LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
9.76
13.99
13.83
10.73
7.35
Sub-SaharanAfrica
11.03
14.49
15.75
13.12
9.40
Source:WorldEconomicOutlook,Oct2023,IMF
InfluencingFactorsfor2024
Continued
Russia-Ukraine
conflict
OPEC+
cutsinoilproduction
Rising
geopoliticaltensionsinMiddleEast
Weaklabormarkets
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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5
GEPOutlook2024
GDP:SluggishGrowthPersists
Globalgrowthisexpectedtofallfrom3.48%in2022to2.96%in2023and2.94%in2024asaneffectofhighinterestratesandgeopoliticaltensions.However,in2024,economicgrowthintheEuroAreaisexpectedto
reboundto1.23%,upfrom0.66%in2023,asinflationcontinuestodrop.
GDPGrowth:AnnualPercentageChange(HistoricandProjected)
Projections
Country/RegionalClassification
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Global
6.34
3.48
2.96
2.94
3.19
AdvancedEconomies
5.58
2.63
1.53
1.45
1.83
UnitedStates
5.95
2.06
2.08
1.47
1.81
UnitedKingdom
7.60
4.10
0.48
0.64
1.98
EuroArea
5.62
3.33
0.66
1.23
1.80
Japan
2.23
1.04
1.95
1.03
0.65
EmergingandDevelopingAsia
7.48
4.48
5.16
4.82
4.85
ASEAN-5
3.96
5.46
4.17
4.47
4.54
China
8.45
2.99
5.40
4.60
4.11
India
9.05
7.24
6.33
6.29
6.33
MiddleEastandCentralAsia
4.25
5.56
2.04
3.37
3.89
LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
7.35
4.14
2.32
2.29
2.38
Sub-SaharanAfrica
4.73
3.99
3.34
3.98
4.14
Source:WorldEconomicOutlook,Oct2023,IMF
ThegrowthrateintheU.S.ispoisedtodipfrom2.08%in2023to1.47%in2024duetosluggishwagegrowth,spikinghouseholddebtandapotentialshallowrecession.
InAsia,Indiaisexpectedtomaintaingrowthin2024,drivenbyresilientdomesticdemandandstronginvestmentinflows.China’spost-pandemicrecoveryhasbeenstrong,butit’snowhereclosetothecountry’spastaverage
growthof~10%.In2024,Chinaisanticipatedtoslowto4.60%,downfrom5.40%in2023.
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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6
GEPOutlook2024
Japan’seconomycontractedinQ32023comparedtotheprevioustwoquarters,withdataindicatingthatsofteningprivateconsumptionandslowingglobaldemandwerehurtingtheeconomy.Afterareboundin2023,Japan’sGDPisexpectedtoslipto1.03%in2024.
InfluencingFactorsfor2024
Sluggishgrowthinwagerate
Risinginterest
ratestotame
inflation
Prolongedcrisisin
China’srealestate
market
GeopoliticaltensionsinMiddleEast
Continued
Russia-Ukraine
war
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7
GEPOutlook2024
InterestRates:ACauseforConcern
Manymajorcentralbanksraisedinterestratestorecordlevelsoverthepasttwoyearstocombatinflation,buttheyareexpectedtolowerthemin2024duetoslowereconomicgrowthandtheirimpactonborrowingcosts.
TheBankofEnglandpausedratehikesinlate2023withinterestatarecordhighof5.25%,thoughinflation
remainsabovethe2%target.Marketpredictionsarethatthecentralbankwilllikelystartcuttinginterestratesbythesecondhalfof2024tocurtailnegativeeconomicgrow
th.4
RevvingUpInterestRates
SEPTEMBER2023
SEPTEMBER2022
6.50%
5.25%
5.00%
5.25%
2.25%
4.75%
5.90%
India
3.25%
3.00%
US
Canada
UK1.50%
EuroArea
US:Canada:
UK:EuroArea:
India:
+225bps+175bps
+300bps+325bps
+60bps
Source:FederalReserveEconomicData,TradingEconomics,GEPAnalysis
In2023,theU.S.FederalReservemaintainedratesat5.25%to5.50%,acumulativeincreaseof225basispointsoveraone-yearperiod.Ratesare,however,expectedtostartgoingdowngraduallyin202
4.5
IntheEuroArea,highenergypricesandfoodinflationpromptedanaggregaterateincreaseof320basispointsin
2023.However,thisongoingcycleofratehikesisexpectedtostop.
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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8
GEPOutlook2024
Long-TermInterestAnnualRates:TrendsandForecast
Long-TermInterestRatesForecastonQuarterlyBasis
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
>
2021202220232024
JapanEuroAreaUK
USIndia
4.90
4.90
4.60
4.45
4.00
3.90
3.90
3.80
4.15
3.70
3.66
3.66
3.66
3.66
3.66
0.650.650.650.770.89
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2023
2024
2024
2024
2024
JapanEuroAreaUKUS
Source:OECD
Labor:MarketsStillTightbutEasing
Theglobaleconomyisslowingbutconcernsofaseveredownturnandriseinunemploymenthaveeased.
IntheU.S.,employmentshowedrobustgrowthin2023andtheunemploymentrateisexpectedtobe3.57%,downfrom3.62%in2022.Similarly,intheEuroArea,theunemploymentratefellsharplyinAugust2023toitslowest
levelat6.40%sincemid-20
21,6d
espitetheRussia-Ukrainewarandinflation.
InAugusttoOctober2023,theestimatednumberofvacanciesintheU.K.fellby5.7%onthequarter,markingthe16thconsecutiveperiodofdecli
ne.7
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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9
GEPOutlook2024
UnemploymentRateTrends:AnnualPercentageChange(HistoricandProjected)
Projected
Country/RegionalClassification
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
AdvancedEconomies
5.61
4.49
4.44
4.60
4.54
UnitedStates
5.37
3.62
3.57
3.85
3.89
UnitedKingdom
4.47
3.70
4.20
4.64
4.32
EuroArea
7.72
6.73
5.60
6.53
6.38
OtherAdvancedEconomies(excludingG7)
4.34
3.48
3.44
3.76
3.81
Source:WorldEconomicOutlook,Oct2023,IMF
TheimpactofAIonthelabormarketisacomplexmatter:itcouldbothcreatenewjobsanddisplaceworkers,
thoughin2024,it’snotyetexpectedtohaveasignificantimpact.AsorganizationsincreasinglyadoptAI,itseffectwillbecomemoreapparent.TheWorldEconomicForum’sTheFutureofJobsReport2023anticipateschangeand
disruptioninthelabormarket:Employers(803respondentcompanies)expect23%ofjobstochangeinthenextfiveyearsduetoAIadoption—agrowthof69millionjobsandadeclineof83millionjo
bs.8
InfluencingFactorsfor2024
Economic
slowdown
duetohigh
interestrates
Technological
advancementsin
businesses
Irregular
supply-demand
patternsthatreduce
industrialoutput
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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10
GEPOutlook2024
Energy:ContinuingOnaHigh
Crudeoilpricesaveraged$82-$85perbarrelin2023,down~20%from2022wheneconomicgrowth,supplychainconstraintsandtheRussia-Ukrainewarshotupprices.However,oilpricescontinuetoremainhigherthanthe2019averageof~$64perbarrel.In2024,oilpricesareexpectedtobeelevatedat$90-$95perbarrelduetoOPEC+
productioncutsandgeopoliticaltensionsintheMiddleEast
.9
CrudeOilPrices(USDPerBarrel)
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
BrentoilandWTIpricesroseover4%to ~$91perbarreland$86perbarrel, respectively,aftertheIsrael-Hamaswarbeganandhaveremainedvolatileeversince.
90.9
88.2
ForecastPeriod
85.8
84.1
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q12020
Q22020
Q32020
Q42020
Q12021
Q22021
Q32021
Q42021
Q12022
Q22022
Q32022
Q42022
Q12023
Q22023
Q32023
Q42023
Q12024
Q22024
Q32024
Q42024
Q42019
WestTexasIntermediateSpotAverageBrentSpotAverage
Source:EIA,GEPAnalysis
Alessseverewinter,higher-than-expectedinventoryinEuropeandrecordproductionintheU.S.subduednatural
gaspricesin2023.Goingforward,naturalgaspricesareexpectedtostabilizeasgasusageforpowergeneration
decreases,renewablesgainmarketshare,nuclearoutputincreasesandeconomicpressuresaffectconsumpti
on.10
InfluencingFactorsfor2024
Further
productioncuts
byOPEC+
Finland-Estonia
gaspipeline
leak
Escalationof
geopolitical
tensionsin
MiddleEast
Demand-supply
variationsdueto
changing
weatherpatterns
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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11
GEPOutlook2024
SEVENLEADERSHIPTHEMESFOR2024
1|SupplyChainReinvented:CraftingaResilientFutureStrategy
Theupheavalinglobalsupplychainsinrecentyearsiswelldocumented.Manysupplychainsfacedbreakdownsanddisruptions.Somemanagedtowithstandthestrainbutlackedthecapacitytocraftaforward-lookingstrategy.Just-in-timesupplychainsfelloutoffavorandslow-movingreshoringtrendsrapidlyaccelerated.Offeringsome
relief,in2023,muchofthesupplychainvolatilitybegantoease.Logisticscostsmoderated.Thecrisisbroughtonbyshortageofpartsandinputmaterialsabated.
Supplychainleadersfinallyhavesomebreathingroomin2024—torethinkandreinventtheirstrategies,afteraprolongedspateofdisruptions.Recognizingthatthisisn’tatimeforcomplacency,leadersaremovingswiftlytoaction.
SupplyChainVolatilityDeclines
GEP’sGlobalSupplyChainVolatilityInd
ex,11
inpartnershipwithS&PGlobal,isaleadingindicatorthattracks
demandconditions,shortages,transportationcosts,inventoriesandbacklogs.Throughout2023,demandsoftenedandmajorsupplychainissuescausedbytransportcosts,staffshortagesanditemshortageslargelydissipated.
Entering2024,theglobalsupplychainhassomecapacity,especiallyinEurope.Andpolicymakersaremaintainingacautiousoutlookoneconomicgrowth.Itpresentsanexcellentopportunityforsupplychainleaderstolaythe
groundworkfortheirsupplychainofthefuture.
DeglobalizationofSupplyChains
SinceChina’saccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)inDecember2001,globaltradehasgrownatanastonishingpace.TheWTOcalculatestheglobaltradevaluetohavequadrupledoverthepast20year
s,12c
reatingintegratedsupplychainnetworksacrosstheworld.
Muchhaschanged.Consumersnowholdcompaniesaccountablefortheirentiresupplychainsandareasking
toughquestionsabouttheiradherencetoESGgoals.Authoritarianregimesperpetratingviolenceandhumanrightsabusescauseamisalignmentbetweenpoliticalandcorporatevalues.Extremeweathereventspersistgloballyandpoliticalinstabilitycontinuestoaffectvariousregions.Leadersalsovividlyrememberthechallengesoflonglead-
timesupplychainsandthelackofredundanciesduringsupplyshortages.
Newmodelsareemerging.“ChinaPlusOne”isgainingtractionbecauseitrecognizesthelimitationsofthe
China-onlyproductionmodelastheChineseeconomyevolves.“Friendshoring”isanotheremergingstrategythatattemptstoalignthesupplychainnetworkunderacommonvaluesystem.Neitheristhedefinitiveanswer,buttheyshowthewillingnessofsupplychainexecutivestoseekanewfundamentalmodel.
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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12
GEPOutlook2024
EssentialFocusAreasforSupplyChains
Logisticsdisruptionssustainability
optimizeworkingcapital
combatinflation
Buildresiliencetomitigatedisruptions
Reducecosts
cyberattackssupplychaindisruptionrisks
29%19%27%19%5%
25%26%30%12%6%
25%27%27%15%6%
25%30%32%9%3%
21%25%31%16%7%
21%29%31%16%3%
17%34%29%16%4%
16%30%32%18%4%
%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
1-MostImportant2345-LeastImportant
Source:TheStateofSupplyChainSustainability2023,basedonasurveyof250supplychainexecutivesfromdifferentorganizationsandindustries,conductedin2023
GettingItRight
1.RevolutionorEvolution?
Theconceptofa“newnormal”hasbeenbandiedaboutinrecentyears,buttherealityisthat2020,2021,2022
and2023havebeenfourverydifferentyears.Whichamongtheseisrepresentativeofthefuture?OrdotheyearsprecedingtheCOVID-19pandemicpresentamoreaccuratepicture?Leadersmustfightthetemptationtobelievethattheworldisrevertingtoa“globalmeannorm”andthecorporategroupthinkthataccompaniesit.Theymust
recognizetheneedforanewmodel.
2.Cost,Resiliencyand…?
Supplychainsfundamentallyaimforcostefficientflowofgoodsandservices.Resiliencyisnowwidelyacceptedasnearlyasimportantascost.ESGgoalsnowholdequalweightfortheC-suite,andsupplychainleadersmustleadtheway.Thetoppriorityin2024istoredefinesupplychaincostinordertobalanceresiliencyandESGpriorities
withcost.
3.InvestmentPlansWithaDifferentCostStructure
In2024,thecostofcapitalformostcompaniesinG7economiessitswellaboverecentnorms.Supplychain
executivessimplycan’texpecttheopencheckbooktheywouldhavehadafewyearsago.AndtheROIoncapitalwillbescrutinizedmorecarefully.Leaderswillfindwaystoinvestinsupplychainassets,includingoptingfornewdigitalpartnersinsteadoffundingmassiveERPinvestments.
PROCUREMENT&SUPPLYCHAIN
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GEPOutlook2024
2|TheIntriguingPotentialofArtificialIntelligence
CanAIpossiblyliveuptothehype?In2023,momentumonAI-powereddigitaltoolsreachedafeverpitch.The
advancementsinlargelanguagemodels(LLMs)andtoolslikeChatGPTsenttheindustryintoafrenzy.In2024
andbeyond,thetechnologylandscapewillcontinuetoevolveatarapidpaceanditwillbeincreasinglychallengingtoseparatehypefromhope.
Ithasbecomeveryclearthatthefutureofnext-generationprocurementandsupplychaintoolswillbedrivenbybigdatacapabilitiesandenabledthroughmachinelearningandAIanalysis.Chat-basedgenerativeAIinterfaces,whichcanutilizevastamountsofunstructureddata,havemadeAIusedemocraticandscalableforthefirsttime.Thetheoreticalbecameactionable.
IntegratingAIChatbotsIntoSupplyChainOperations
35%
VP+titles47%
Directors/ManagingDirectors28%
30%
22%
9%
65%
Expecttheirorganizations
willintegrateanAI
chatbotintosupplychain
operationsoverthe
next12months
4%
Within6monthsWithin12monthsWithin2yearsNoplansto
integrateanAIchatbot
Havealready
integratedanAI
chatbot
Source:DigitalSupplyChainModernizationsur
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