AI科技對PC產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響-Omdia Jeff Lin

演講重點(diǎn)摘要(KeyTakeaways)Page2AI

PC裝置概念就是:讓使用者隨時享用AI雲(yún)端服務(wù)成果。AI技術(shù)對PC產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響:

(1)透過自然語言(輸入階段)和生成式AI技術(shù)(輸出階段)來節(jié)省傳統(tǒng)文件與影片製作時間。

(2)整合後端作業(yè)流程,提供即時雙向互動模式。

(3)

PC週邊設(shè)備的需求將從鍵盤,滑鼠轉(zhuǎn)向觸控,主動筆,與鏡頭。

(4)虛擬助理應(yīng)用軟體(聊天機(jī)器人)將成為雲(yún)端服務(wù)(伺服器)和終端設(shè)備(客戶端)之間的新使用者介面。

(5)當(dāng)AI技術(shù)改變輸入與輸出方式時,將推動折疊,穿戴裝置的需求。AI技術(shù)趨勢將推動下列面板技術(shù)發(fā)展:

(1)當(dāng)圖片與影音可以即時轉(zhuǎn)換時,面板將需要符合雙100%色域規(guī)格(AdobeRGB&DCI-P3)。

(2)當(dāng)虛擬助理應(yīng)用軟體(語音機(jī)器人)成為必需時,將推動全息投影/3D全像投影與穿戴式面板的需求。

(3)當(dāng)AI技術(shù)改變傳統(tǒng)輸入與輸出方式(鍵盤與滑鼠)時,將推動折疊顯示器面板的需求。演講重點(diǎn)摘要(KeyTakeaways)AI科技對PC產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響Page4自然語言將取代傳統(tǒng)的圖形介面成為新的輸入方式Page5AI技術(shù)將改變舊有的輸入與輸出作業(yè)流程[note]Query:Thisword’srelevancetootherwords;Key:Otherwords’relevancetothisword;Value:Thisword’srelevancetothesentencesbeforeandafter.[Omdiaanalysis]1.AIlanguagemodel:Notonlyunderstandsyourmeaning,butalsoyourlogic;2.Prompt:KeycommunicationtoolwithmachinesbeforevirtualagentAppsready.Page6AI技術(shù)發(fā)展將創(chuàng)造雙向的使用者經(jīng)驗Page7AI

PC裝置概念就是:讓使用者隨時享用AI雲(yún)端服務(wù)成果MicrosoftEcosystemAIRoadmapTimelineAvailablenowFY23+FY24H1(Jul'23toDec'23)CY24+StageCloudAI(PoweredbytheCloud)AICapablePC

(AIontheClient)DynamicCloud+Client(Integrated)SolutionAreaBusinessApps,DigitalApp,&InfraBusinessApps&InfraSecurity&WindowsWindowsandDevicesProductAnnounceDynamic365Copilot:VivaSales

Dynamic365Copilot:Marketing

Dynamic365Copilot:CustomerService

Dynamic365Copilot:SupplyChain

Dynamic365Copilot:BusinessCentral

GitHubCopilot

AIOptimizedVirtualMachines(GA:NC,NV,NDv2,NDv4)CopilotinPowerApps

CopilotinPowerAutomate

CopilotinPowerVirtualAgents

AzureOpenAIService

AzureOpenAIServiceinAIBuilder

Microsoft365Copilot(Word,Excel,PowerPoint,Teams,Outlooks,Loop,OneNote,BusinessChat)

AIOptimizedVirtualMachines

(Preview:NDv5H100)

Fabric-Previewnow

WindowsCopilotpreviewMicrosoftSecurityCopilot

LimitedPreview:Closed

PublicPreview:FY24Q2

-June2023:Developerspreview

forWindowsCopilot

-Fall2023:WindowsCopilotStaytunedformoreWindowsanddeviceAIinnovation.PartnerActionSellCopilotBizApps

SellNC,NV,NDv2VMsSellBizApps

SellTeamsPremium(nochangetoplan)

SellME3/ME5as"AIready"pre-requisites

SetupanAIworkshopSellMicrosoftDefenderandMicrosoftSentinelStaytuned.Lotsofexcitingannouncementstocome.Source:Microsoft

?2024OmdiaPage8虛擬助理(聊天機(jī)器人)將成為新的人機(jī)互動介面MicrosoftPowerPlatformMicrosoftPowerPlatform:anAI-poweredlow-codetoolsetforenhancingMicrosoftcloudservices,includingAzure,Dynamic365,andMicrosoft365.MicrosoftPowerAutomate:Microsoftcloud-basedservicethatallowsuserstocreateindividualworkflowbetweendifferentservicesbothwithinandoutsidetheMicrosoftCloud–increasetheefficiencyoftheprocessesatthecompany.MicrosoftPowerVirtualAgents:Microsoftsoftware-as-a-service(SaaS)offeringwhichenableuserstocreatechatbots,bothinadedicatedonlinewebappandasaMicrosoftTeamapp.UserscangetupandrunningwithMicrosoftCopilotStudiochatbotsinMicrosoftTeams.[note]MicrosoftCopilotStudio:anend-to-endconversationalAIplatformthatempowersuserstocreateandcustomizeCopilotsusingnaturallanguageoragraphicalinterface.VirtualAgents(Chatbots):

Newuserinterfacebetweencloudservices(Server)andend-devices(Client)(Launchingdate:Apr’23)Imagesource:MicrosoftPage9虛擬助理(聊天機(jī)器人)將加速推動數(shù)位孿生/元宇宙的發(fā)展

Imagesource:NvidiaVirtualAgentpowersDigitalTwinsintheMetaverse-DigitalTwinsintheMetaverse:thedigitalduplicatesofreal-worldelementsorprocessesinasetofdigitalspaces.Forexample,VirtualAgentsactasup-to-date,real-timecopiesintheEnterpriseMetaverseandassisteachenterprisetooptimizeinternaloperationprocesses,especiallyhybridworkstylehasbecomeanewworktrend.[Omdiaanalysis]NewtopicsbyDigitalTwins(ex:VirtualAgents)intheMetaverseNewtopic1:HowtobuildaDigitalTwinintheMetaverse(ex:Comp-utility/Apps)Newtopic2:HowtocreateandtradeassetsintheMetaverse(ex:Crypto)Newtopic3:HowtomanageactivitieswithintheMetaverse(ex:LawforMetaverse)Page10Imagesource

:

myKITT.deImagesource

:

myKITT.deMicroLED+OpticalcommunicationVirtualAgentOpticalCommunication

(V2Xcommunication–V2V,V2I,V2N)VirtualAgent

(Domaincontrollermanagementby

VirtualAgent)MSFT’sOpenAI&TomTom(Dec’2023)

MicrosoftandTomTomlaunchanewin-carAI

-chatwithorhavehelpyounavigatetheworldGoogle’sGemini(Feb’2024)

GooglebringsAI(GoogleGemini)toGoogleMessages,AndroidAuto,WearOSandmore.SonySpaceCommunicationsCorporation(Jun’2022)

SonySpaceCommunicationsCorporation(SSC)foropticalcommunicationstechnology.SonyMicroLEDforcar(Jan’2024)

SonyHondaMotorAfeelacarwithMicroLEDdisplay[Omdiaanalysis]1.Hybridcardesign-CarwithVirtualAgentsupport

Throughtraditionaldesign(mechanicaldesign)and

newdesign(ex:car’sdomaincontrollermanagement

byVirtualAgent)toachievelowoperationalriskbut

highuserexperience.3.NewbizmodelforAutoTier1:

AssistthecarbrandstomodifythecarstohaveVirtual

Agentfunctionsandcompletethesafetycertificationof

carbrands.2.Howtoredesign“KnightIndustryTwoThousand”:

(1)Lowriskbyminimumrequiredmechanicaldesign

Retaintheminimumrequiredmechanicaldesigndevices

whenelectronicequipmentcompletelyfails

(2)HighuserexperiencebyVirtualAgent

Improvingautomotiveequipmentusageefficiency

(ex:accelerator,sensor,powerandconnectivity)

throughVirtualAgenttomanagecar’sdomaincontroller.

(3)Switchmodeswithoneclick

Clarifythelegalresponsibilitiesbetweenusersandcar

brandsbyswitchingmodeswithoneclick.虛擬助理(語音機(jī)器人)將成為智慧座艙發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵Page11當(dāng)虛擬助理(語音機(jī)器人)成為必需時,何種顯示器需求將崛起?Imagesource:IronManImagesource:https://youtu.be/8VU8fpaYYfc?si=kKV7-_e31hcyLAogHolographicProjectionWearabledevicedisplay以Walmart

併購VIZIO為例

“Weredefinetheintersectionofretailandentertainment.”SethDallaire

ExecutiveVicePresidentandChiefRevenueOfficer,WalmartU.S.Walmart自有電視品牌(Onn+Vizio)將成為北美第一大品牌

Analysis:IncreasethecoverageofcollectingcustomerinformationandsendingadvertisementsCastOS將成為北美市佔率最高的電視作業(yè)系統(tǒng)Analysis:GettheVizio’sCastOSandSmartCastplatformforlessthanafifthofthecostofRokuPage16"Walmartcustomersarefindinginspiration

everywhereandanywhere,includingtheirfavorite

TVshows.It’swhywe’realwayslookingfor

innovativewaystoshortenthedistancebetween

thatinspirationandtheabilitytopurchase"

-WilliamWhite,chiefmarketingofficer,WalmartU.S.TheshoppableepisodesenabledbyNBCUniversal'sMustShopTVAdInnovationandWalmart'sseamlesswebcheckout[NewinteractiveprocessbyAItechnology]

Step1

:

Identify

Identifyobjectswithinthesceneofashow,

enablingviewerstoshopproductsfeaturedinorinspired

bythecontentthey’rewatching.

Step2:Pair

ItemsarepairedwithWalmart’sinternalsystem(inventorychecking),soviewerswillonlyseeoptionsthatarereadilyavailabletopurchase.

Step3:Shop

PressarrowsontheremotetobrowsetheinteractiveonscreenproductcarouselandscanaQRcodetoeasilycheckoutonW.VideoPhotoImagesource:WalmartWalmart透過電視影集了解消費(fèi)者並即時生成廣告Page17當(dāng)圖片與影音可以即時轉(zhuǎn)換時,何種顯示器需求將崛起?Imagesource:HPTheimpactofgenerativeAItechnology:GenerativeAItechnologywillbreakthescenesinwhichusersusepicturesandvideosandwillalsoindirectlybreaktheexistingrequirementsfordisplaycolorgamutspecifications(AdobevsDCI-P3).Newdisplaycolorgamutspecificationrequirement:TheDisplayneedstosupport100%Adobecolorgamutspecificationand100%DCI-P3colorgamutspecificationatsametimewhenAItechnologycanletpicturesandvideostobeconvertedinstantly.Startingin2025,HPwillbegintorequirenotebookdisplaytomeetthisnewcolorgamutspecificationrequirementforhigh-endcontentcreatornotebookPCmodel.DisplaycolorspecificationColorGamutsRGB

(Rec.709)45%50%60%69%72%92%DCI-P3AdobeRGBNTSC

(CIE1931)BT2020

(Rec2020)Wx0.3130.3130.3130.3130.3130.3130.3130.3130.3130.3130.3127Wy0.3290.3290.3290.3290.3290.3290.3290.3290.3290.3290.329Rx0.640.590.60.620.630.640.6530.680.640.670.708Ry0.330.350.3450.3320.330.330.330.320.330.330.292Gx0.30.330.330.3450.310.30.2650.2650.210.210.17Gy0.60.5550.5550.6070.60.60.6770.690.710.710.797Bx0.150.1530.1520.1480.150.150.1440.150.150.140.131By0.060.1190.1190.1150.060.060.0280.060.060.080.046Gammanon-linear2.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.2

ColorGamutsRGB

(Rec.709)45%50%60%69%72%92%DCI-P3AdobeRGBNTSC

(CIE1931)BT2020

(Rec2020)sRGB100.00%66.80%69.20%

100.00%

135.70%134.90%141.20%189.10%DCI-P373.70%49.20%51.00%

73.70%

100.00%99.40%104.10%139.40%AdobeRGB74.10%49.50%51.30%

74.10%

100.60%100.00%104.70%140.20%NTSC70.80%47.30%49.00%

70.80%

96.10%95.50%100.00%133.90%BT202035.90%35.30%36.60%

35.90%

53.60%52.10%75.80%100.00%Source:HP?2024OmdiaAI

PC產(chǎn)品開發(fā)趨勢分析Page19微軟對AIPC產(chǎn)品的定義[note]NPU:NeuralnetworkProcessingUnit;RAM:Random-AccessMemory;SSD:Solid-StateDrive;DDR:DoubleDataRateSDRAM;LPDDR:LowPowerDDR;UFS:UniversalFlashStorage;TOPS:TeraOperationsPerSecond;SoC:SystemonaChip

MIPI:MobileIndustryProcessorInterface;FP64/FP32/FP16

(forAItrainingmainly):Floating-Point64bits/Floating-Point32bits/Floating-Point16bits;INT16/INT8/INT4(forAIinferencemainly)

:Integer16bits/Integer8bits/Integer4bits

[Omdiaanalysis]-ThekeytoAIPCdevelopment:HowtoreduceLatencyissuewhenusingAIfunctions-Threesolutionsforlatencyissues:Comp-utility,Storagecapacity,andBandwidth.Page20微軟AIPC產(chǎn)品設(shè)計規(guī)範(fàn):MainstreamMicrosoftAInotebookPCrequirements(Mainstreamproductline)RequirementitemsMainstream(Entry)Mainstream(Core)Mainstream(Hero)StartingPrice$699$849$999FormFactorUltraslimUltraslim/ConvertibleUltraslim/ConvertibleDisplaySize/Type13"-16"/IPS13"-16"/IPS14"/16"IPSDisplayAspectRation/Resolution16:10/FHD+orhigher16:10/FHD+orhigher16:10/QHD+DisplayPPI/Brightness155PPIabove/300nits155PPIabove/300nits214-225PPI/400nitsCPUPlatformList(example)QC:PurwaQC:PurwaQC:Hamoa;AMD:KrakanRyzen5;Intel:LunarLakeCore5UltraMemory16GB16GB16GBStorage256GB512GB512GBCamera720p1080p1080pThickness(mm)<18.9mm<18.9mm<18.9mmWeight<4lbs./1.81kg<4lbs./1.81kg<3lbs./1.36kgBatteryLife16+hrs.videoplayback

12+hrs.webbrowsing16+hrs.videoplayback

12+hrs.webbrowsing14+hrs.videoplayback

10+hrs.webbrowsingTouchNoYesYesBiometricLoginFingerprintFingerprintFingerprintorFacialRecognitionI/O≧1xUSB-Cports

;≧1xUSB-Aport;HDMISecuritySecureCorePC/Plutonenabled/AutopilotReadySource:Microsoft

?2024OmdiaPage21微軟AIPC產(chǎn)品設(shè)計規(guī)範(fàn):PremiumT&LMicrosoftAInotebookPCrequirements(PremiumThin&Lightproductline)RequirementitemsEntryPremiumCorePremiumHeroPremiumStartingPrice$999$1199$1299FormFactorUltraslimUltraslimUltraslim/ConvertibleDisplaySize/Type13"-16"/IPS13"-16"/IPS14"or16"/IPSDisplayAspectRatio/Resolution16:10/FHD+16:10/FHD+16:10/QHD-2.8KDisplayPPI/Brightness155PPIabove/300nits155PPIabove/300nits214-225PPI/400nitsCPUPlatformList(example)QC:Purwa

AMD:KrakanRyzen5QC:Hamoa

Intel:LunarLakeCore5Ultra

AMD:Krakan/StrixRyzen5QC:Hamoa

Intel:LunarLakeCore7Ultra

AMD:Krakan/StrixRyzen7Memory16GB16GB16GBStorage256GB512GB512GBCamera1080p1080p1080pThickness(mm)<16.9mm<16.9mm<16.9mmWeight<3lbs./1.36kg<3lbs./1.36kg<3lbs./1.36kgBatteryLife16+hrs.videoplayback

12+hrs.webbrowsing16+hrs.videoplayback

12+hrs.webbrowsing14+hrs.videoplayback

10+hrs.webbrowsingTouchNoYesYesBiometricLoginFingerprintFingerprintFingerprintorFacialRecognitionI/O≧2xUSB-Cports;≧1xUSB-Aport(Recommended);HDMISecuritySecureCorePC/Plutonenabled/AutopilotReadySource:Microsoft

?2024Omdia[note]T&L

:

ThinandLightPage22微軟AIPC產(chǎn)品設(shè)計規(guī)範(fàn):PremiumT&LFlagshipMicrosoftAInotebookPCrequirements(PremiumThin&LightFlagshipproductline)RequirementitemsEntryStep-upHeroPremiumStartingPrice$1499$1649$1799FormFactorUltraslim/ConvertibleUltraslim/ConvertibleUltraslim/ConvertibleDisplaySize/Type13"-16"/IPS13"-16"/IPS14"or16"/IPSDisplayAspectRatio/Resolution16:10/QHD-2.8K16:10/QHD-2.8K16:10/QHD-2.8KDisplayPPI/Brightness155PPIabove/300nits155PPIabove/300nits214-225PPI/400nitsCPUPlatformList(example)AMD:Krakan/StrixRyzen5

Intel:LunarLakeCoreUltra5AMD:Krakan/StrixRyzen7

Intel:LunarLakeCoreUltra5/7AMD:Krakan/StrixRyzen7

Intel:LunarLakeCoreUltra7Memory16GB16GB32GBStorage256GB512GB512GBCamera1080p1080p1080pThickness(mm)<15.2mm<15.2mm<15.2mmWeight<3lbs./1.36kg<3lbs./1.36kg<3lbs./1.36kgBatteryLife16+hrs.videoplayback

12+hrs.webbrowsing16+hrs.videoplayback

12+hrs.webbrowsing14+hrs.videoplayback

10+hrs.webbrowsingTouchNoYesYesBiometricLoginFingerprintFingerprintFingerprintorFacialRecognitionI/O≧2xUSB-Cports;≧1xUSB-Aport(Recommended);HDMISecuritySecureCorePC/Plutonenabled/AutopilotReadySource:Microsoft

?2024Omdia[note]T&L

:

ThinandLightPage23微軟AIPC產(chǎn)品設(shè)計規(guī)範(fàn):MobileWorkstationMicrosoftAInotebookPCrequirements(MobileWorkstationproductline)RequirementitemsEntryWorkstationCoreWorkstationHeroWorkstationStartingPrice$1399$1899$2199FormFactorClamshellClamshellClamshellDisplaySize/Type13"-16"/IPS13"-16"/IPS14"or16"/IPSDisplayAspectRatio/Resolution16:10/FHD+16:10/FHD+16:10/QHD-2.8KDisplayPPI/Brightness155PPIabove/300nits155PPIabove/300nits214-225PPI/400nitsCPUPlatformList(example)a.StrixHaloRyzen7

b.Krakan/StrixRyzen5a.StrixHaloRyzen9

b.KrakanRyzen7a.StrixHaloRyzen9

b.KrakanRyzen9D-GPUa.No

b.Noa.No

b.Yesa.No

b.YesMemory16GB32GB64GBStorage256GB512GB1TBcamera1080p1080p1080pThickness(mm)<28mm<28mm<28mmWeight<3lbs./1.36kg<3lbs./1.36kg<3lbs./1.36kgBatteryLife16+hrs.videoplayback

12+hrs.webbrowsing16+hrs.videoplayback

12+hrs.webbrowsing14+hrs.videoplayback

10+hrs.webbrowsingTouchNoYesYesBiometricLoginFingerprintFingerprintFingerprintorFacialRecognitionSecuritySecureCorePC/Plutonenabled/AutopilotReadySource:Microsoft

?2024Omdia微軟AIPC規(guī)範(fàn)下的晶片發(fā)展趨勢分析[note1]TOPS:TeraOperationsPerSecond;Perf:Performance;AI:ArtificialIntelligence;NPU:Neural-networkProcessingUnit

;

TDP

:

ThermalDesignPowerPage24[note2]QualcommHamoaNPUchip:45TOPS(INT8condition);AppleM3NPUchip:18TOPS(FP16condition)=>UnderFP16condition,NPUTOPSpeakperformancewillbeabout50%lessthanint8.Page25微軟OS權(quán)利金政策造成AI

PC高成本問題?![OmdiaAnalysis]FollowingisOmdiaanalysisifMicrosoftwantstoactivelypromoteMicrosoftAIPCproducts.1.RevisememoryandstoragespecificationrequirementsinMicrosoftWindowsOSro