當(dāng)代市場調(diào)研 （原第12版）指導(dǎo)手冊 Instructor Manual ch11 原始數(shù)據(jù)：實驗法和測試市場

McDaniel&Gates–MarketingResearch,12thEdition Instructor’sManual

Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc. 11-

CHAPTER11

PrimaryData:ExperimentationandTestMarkets

LEARNINGOBJECTIVES

1.Understandthenatureofexperiments.

2.Gaininsightintorequirementsforprovingcausation.

3.Learnabouttheexperimentalsetting.

4.Examineexperimentalvalidity.

5.Comparetypesofexperimentaldesigns.

6.Understandextraneousvariables

7.Analyzeexperimentaldesign,treatment,andeffects.

8.Examinethelimitationsofexperimentalresearch.

9.Gaininsightintoexperimentalresearch.

KEYTERMS

After-onlywithcontrolgroupdesign

Beforeandafterwithcontrolgroup

Design

Causalresearch

Contamination

Controlledtestmarket

Designcontrol

Experiment

Experimentaldesign

Experimentaleffect

Externalvalidity

Fieldexperiments

History

Instrumentvariation

Internalvalidity

Interruptedtime-seriesdesign

Laboratoryexperiments

Maturation

Mortality

Multipletime-seriesdesign

One-grouppretest–posttestdesign

One-shotcasestudydesign

Physicalcontrol

Preexperimentaldesigns

Quasi-experiments

Randomization

Regressiontothemean

Selectionbias

SimulatedtestmarketSTM

Statisticalcontrol

Testmarket

Testingeffect

Traditionaltestmarket

Treatmentvariable

Trueexperimentaldesign

VirtualtestmarketVTM

CHAPTERSUMMARY

Thefirstpartofthischaptercoversthebasicsofexperiments,typesofexperiments,howtodemonstratecausation,experimentalvalidityandotheraspectsofexperimentsthatapplytotheworldofscienceingeneralandtomarketingresearchinparticular.Thesecondpartofthechapterpresentssomecommonwaysthatexperimentsareusedinmarketingresearchparticularly,thetestmarketapproach.

Thischapterexaminesexperimentation,amethodofprimarymarketingresearch.Anexperimentoccurswhentheresearcherchangesormanipulatesanindependentvariableinordertoobserveitseffectonadependentvariable.Experimentstypicallyintendtoprovecausation.Experimentscanbeconductedinalaboratoryorinafieldsetting.Whenconductinganexperiment,theresearcherhopestoprovecausationofonevariableonanother.Doingsoinvolvesshowingthatchangesinthecausalvariabletemporallyprecedechangesinthedependentvariablethatchangesinthecausalvariableareaccompaniedbychangesinthedependentvariable,andthatextraneousfactorsthatcouldalsocauseachangeinthedependentvariablehavebeencontrolled.Thereareseveraldifferentexperimentaldesigns,eachwithitsownadvantagesanddisadvantages.Onetypeofexperimentationthatisoftenusedinmarketingresearchisthetestmarket.Testmarketsinvolvedintroductionofaproductintocertainmarketplaces,controllingforexposuretopromotionandadvertising,andobservingthereactionsofconsumers.Testmarketingisveryexpensive,andmustbeconsideredcarefully.Therearesixstepsinatestmarketstudy:1)Definetheobjective;2)Selectabasicapproach;3)Developdetailedproceduresforthetest;4)Selectmarketsforthetest;and5)Executetheplan;6)AnalyzetheTestResults

QUESTIONSFORREVIEWANDCRITICALTHINKING

Dividetheclassintoasmanyassixgroups,asappropriate.Eachgroupwillhavethetaskofrecommendingatestmarketdesignandaddressingtheassociatedquestionsforoneofthefollowingscenarios.

Designatestofanewpricingstrategyfororangejuiceconcentrate.Thebrandisanestablishedbrand,andweareonlyinterestedintestingtheeffectofa5percentpriceincreaseanda5percentpricedecrease.Allotherelementsofthemarketingmixwillremainthesame.

AsoftdrinkcompanyhasdeterminedintasteteststhatconsumerspreferthetasteoftheirdietproductwhensweetenedwithSplendaincomparisontoEqual.Nowtheyareinterestedindetermininghowthenewsweetenerwillplayinthemarketplace.Designatestmarketthatwillachievethisgoal.

Anationalpizzachainwantstotesttheeffectonsalesoffourdifferentdiscountcoupons.Designatestthatwilldothisinawaythatgivesaclearread.Yourfocusshouldbeontheeffectonsalesvolume.Financialanalysisafterthetestresultsareinwilladdresstherevenueandprofitimpact.

Anationalvalue-pricedhotelchainneedstounderstandthebusinessimpactofincludingafreebuffetstylebreakfasttoguests.Designandjustifyatestthatwilldothis.Dosomepreliminaryinvestigationtodeterminewhatitemsthetargetmarketofguestswouldpreferinabreakfastbuffet.Doafollow-upsurveytogetapreliminaryideaoftheimpactonpurchasebehaviorthebuffetmighthave.Willtherebeanychangeinprice?Onceithasbeenestablishedthatguestsinthetargetmarketwouldwantthebreakfastbuffet,atestmarketcouldbeconductedtosee“real”results.

Acreditcardcompanyneedstotestitsstrategyforattractingcollegestudentstoitscard.Itisgoingtocontinueusingboothsinstudentunionsandotherhigh-trafficcampuslocations.IthasbeenofferingfreeCDsfromalisttothosewhosignupforitscard,butsinceothercardcompaniesareusingthisapproach,thecompanywantstotrysomealternatives.ItisconsideringfreeMP3downloadsfromiTunesandt-shirtsfeaturingpopularmusicgroups.

Studentresponseswillvary.

TicoTaco,anationalchainofMexicanfast-foodrestaurants,hasdevelopedthe“SuperSonicTaco,”whichisthelargesttacointhemarketandsellsfor$1.19.TicoTacohasidentifieditstargetcustomersforthisnewproductasmenunder30whoarenotconcernedabouthealthissues,suchasfatcontentorcalories.Itwantstotesttheproductinatleastfourregionalmarketsbeforemakingadecisiontointroduceitnationally.Whichcitieswouldyourecommendusing?Whywouldyourecommendthesecities?

Testcitiesshouldbechosentorepresentthetargetedmarket.Thiswouldmeanfindingcitiesthathavealargepopulationofthenon-health-consciousmenunderage30.Also,thesecitiesshouldbedispersedgeographicallytotrytocontrolforregionalculturaldifferences.Oneimportantquestioniswhethertherearecultural,thereforeregional,tastesfortacos.ThechosencitiesmightincludeAustin,Texas,ChapelHill,NorthCarolina,andBerkeley,CA,andLincoln,Nebraska.Thesecitieswouldbechosenbecausetheyareofmediumsizeandpresumablehaveasignificantnumberofmeninthetargetmarket.Thiscouldbeverifiedbycensusreportsofpopulationdistributions.Attitudestowardhealthissueswouldbemoredifficulttopinpoint.

Oftheprimarydatacollectiontechniquesavailabletotheresearcher(survey,observation,experimentation),whyistheexperimenttheonlyonethatcanprovideconclusiveevidenceofcausalrelationships?Ofthevarioustypesofexperiments,whichtypeortypeprovidesthebestevidenceofcausationornon-causation?

Experimentationistheonlymethodofmarketingresearchthatcanconsistentlymeetthethreeprerequisitesforcausation,concomitantassociation,appropriatetimeorderofsequence,andeliminationofotherpossiblecausalfactors.

WhataresomeoftheimportantindependentvariablesthatmustbedealtwithinanexperimenttotestconsumerreactiontoapilotforanewTVseries?Explainwhythesevariablesareimportant.

Whatcitieswillbeusedforthetest?Howwillthematerialbepresented;inastudio,inpeoples’homes,atagalagrandopening?Whoarewegoingtoselectasthetargetmarket?Whatsortofmeasuresofaudiencereactionwillweemploy?Dowewanttomeasureaudiencereactionrightafterthescreening,ordowewanttowaittomeasuredelayedreaction?Whattimeofdaywillthesescreeningtestsbeconducted?Whatdayoftheweek?

Managersofthestudentcenteratyouruniversityorcollegeareconsideringthreealternativebrandsoffrozenpizzatobeofferedonthemenu.Theyonlywanttoofferoneofthethreeandwanttofindoutwhichonestudentsprefer.Designanexperimenttodeterminewhichbrandofpizzathestudentsprefer.

Thestudentcentercoulduseseveraltypesofexperimentaldesign.Oneappropriatemethodwouldbeapretest-posttestwithcontrolgroup.Studentscouldberandomlyassignedtotheexperimentalgroupandcontrolgroup.First,studentsinbothgroupswouldbeaskedfortheirpreferenceforpizzabrand.Thentheexperimentalgroupwouldtasteallthreebrands,andthenbothgroupswouldbeaskedagaintheirpreferenceforbrand.Amorecomplexdesignwouldbetohavethreeexperimentalgroupstasteandratejustonebrandofpizza.Comparethethreeaggregatescores.

Nightstudentsattheuniversityorcollegearemucholderthandaystudents.Introduceanexplicitcontrolfordayversusnightstudentsintheprecedingexperiment.

Therandomizedblockdesigncouldbeincorporatedintothisdesignsothatstudentsareblockedbywhethertheyarenightordaystudents.

Whyarequasi-experimentsmuchmorepopularinmarketingresearchthantrueexperiments?

Quasi-experimentaldesignsgenerallyaremorefeasibleinfieldsettingsthanaretrueexperiments.Theresearcherisnotexpectedtohavecontrolovertheschedulingoftreatmentsandtherandomizationofrespondents.Thistypeofresearchismorepracticalinfieldapplications.Itisalsolessexpensive.Often,theresultsofquasi-experimentsare“goodenough”tomakeamarketingmanagementdecision.

Howdoeshistorydifferfrommaturation?Whatspecificactionsmightyoutaketodealwitheachinanexperiment?

Historyconsidersspecialeventsorvariablesoutsidetheexperimentthatmaytakeplacebetweenthebeginningandtheendoftheexperimentandaffectthevalueofthedependentvariable.Maturationreferstochangesinsubjectswithintheexperimentthatareafunctionoftimewhichmayalsoaffectthereportedvaluesofthedependentvariables.

Themanufacturerofmicrowaveovenshasdesignedanimprovedmodelthatwillreduceenergycostsandcookfoodevenlythroughout.However,thisnewmodelwillincreasetheproduct’spriceby30percentbecauseofextracomponentsandengineeringdesignchanges.Thecompanywantstodeterminewhateffectthenewmodelwillhaveonsalesofitsmicrowaveovens.Proposeanappropriateexperimentaldesignthatcanprovidetheinformationformanagement.Whydidyouselectthisdesign?

Atwofactorfactorialdesign,oranumberofotherdesigns,mightbeused.Thetwofactorfactorialdesignmightbeusedwithtwopricelevels–currentand30percentincrease–andtwopackagesoffeatures–currentfeaturesandnewfeatures.Intheexperiment,randomlyselectedsubjectswouldberandomlyassignedtothefourdifferenttreatments.Subjectsexposedtoeachtreatmentwouldbeaskedtoindicatetheirlikelihoodofpurchasingthefeature-pricecombinationtowhichtheyareexposed.Likelihoodofpurchaseisthedependentvariable.Resultscouldbeanalyzedtodeterminetheeffectsofthedifferenttreatments.Thisisanappropriatedesignbecauseitallowsseparateconsiderationofthetwoindependentvariables,inthiscasepriceandproductfeatures.

Discussvariousmethodsbywhichextraneouscausalfactorscanbecontrolled.

Extraneouscausalfactorscanbecontrolledbyrandomizationoftestingunits,multiplemeasuresofthedependentvariable,ensuringthatthereisatleastonecontrolgroupandoneexperimentalgroupandthattheyarematchedonsimilardemographicdimensions,randomselectionofsamplefromthepopulationofinterest,subjectsbeingfreshatthestartoftheexperiment,andthetreatmentvariableandthebeforeandaftermeasuresadministeredproperlyandconsistently.

Discussthealternativestotraditionaltestmarketing.Explaintheiradvantagesanddisadvantages.

SimulatedTestMarkets(STMs)areanalternativetotraditionaltestmarketing.Theadvantagesincludealowprobabilityofyourcompetitorsknowingaboutyourtesting,thespeedatwhichtestscanbeperformed,relativelylowexpense,andaccuracyofthemodels.Anotheralternativeisa“rollingrollout”whereaproductislaunchedinacertainregionratherthaninoneortwocities.Progressoftheproduct,itsadvertisementandpromotioncanbetrackedwithscannerdata.Theadvantagesanddisadvantagesofthismethodaresimilartothoseoftraditionaltestmarketing.Afirmcouldchoosetotryaproductinaforeignmarketbeforerollingitoutglobally.Onedisadvantageinthismethodisunderstandingculturaldifferencesthatmustbetakenintoconsiderationbeforeaproductislaunchedinagivencountry.

WORKINGTHENET

Visit/marketing/design-of-experimentsandreadthediscussion.Whatdoyouthinkofhiscommentsonboots?Howwouldyouapplythatsamethinkingtoanotherproductorservicecategory?

Thisisalongandinvolvedpost.Asaresult,studentanswerswillvary.

Takeamoredetailedviewofcities/marketsusedfortestingproductsandothermarketingelements/product-development/best-u-s-cities-to-test-market-a-national-product/.Considerthegeographicdistribution.Anythingyouseethere?Ifyouweretestinganewaccessoryforjetskiswhatmarketswouldyouchoose?Whythosemarkets?

Thiswebsitelists25Americancitiesaremostliketheentirecountry.Fortestingjetskisaccessories,studentswilllikelyselectacitywithawarmclimatenearwater.

REAL-LIFERESEARCH

Case9.1LosLobosBeer

KeyPoints

CoyoteBeeristheoldestbrewingcompanyinNewMexicoor,atleast,theoldestbeerbrandinNewMexico.Duringthe1980s,thecompanywentthroughbankruptcylargelyduetoitsinabilitytocompetewiththebignationalbeerbrands.Inthe1990s,agroupofinvestorspurchasedthebrandnamefromthebankruptcycourtandreincarnateditasamicrobrewerywithretaillocationsofferingbrewpubatmosphereandcasualdining.Inaddition,CoyoteBeerdistributeditsproductsthroughspecialtyliquorstoresthatofferanextensiveassortmentofspecialtybeers,includingimportedandmicrobrewerybeers.Thecompanycurrentlyhas18brewpublocationsanddistributionin243liquorstoresacross

Thecompanyhasexperiencedsolidgrowthandfinancialperformanceoverits12-yearhistory.However,thecompetitiveenvironmentremainstoughwiththebignationalbrandsatoneendofthespectrumandothermicrobreweriesandbrewpubsattheotherend.ItiscriticalthatCoyoteBeerspenditslimitedmarketingbudgetinthemostefficientmannertodrivebusinesstoitsbrewpubsandthesaleofitsproductsthroughliquorstores.

Inrecentmonths,themanagementteamatCoyoteBeerhasbeendividedinregardtothebestmarketingstrategyforthecompany.Onecontingentwantstopursueastrategybasedonalowprice,relativetoimportandothermicrobrews.TheothergroupwantstofocusonenhancingtheimageofCoyoteBeerwithafocusonitslonghistoryinthestateofNewMexicoandtheartisanalnatureofitsbrewingprocess.Thedifferenceofopinionbetweenthetwofactionshasbecomeheatedandsomewhatdivisive.Furthermore,timeisrunningouttogetthemarketingstrategyinplaceforthecomingyear.

Questions

Commentontheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofeachdesign.

Toby’sresearchplancallsfortestingtheprice-orientedcampaigninonemarketandtheimage-orientedcampaigninanother.HeplansonusingAlbuquerqueandLasCrucesasthetwotestmarkets.

Asthecasestates,thesemarketswillnotlikelyspilloverintootherareas.Thatwouldresultinonemessagebeingsentnowandperhapsanotherbeingsentlater.Usingjustonemarketeachshouldhelpcontrolthecostofcreatingtwoseparatecampaigns.

Thedrawbacksare1)thetwomarketsmaybedifferentsizesorhavedifferentdemographicsandsonotbecomparablet