石化行業(yè)2024年市場(chǎng)前景及投資研究報(bào)告：與不確定性共存

234:

JKemp

Energy,CFTC2018GAMMA5:bloombergOPEC:bloomberg11

10910119WTI711

16WTI

BRENTcontangoOPEC340/(KRG)OPECOPEC11

267:

wind

OPEC

Kpler11

1711

18OPEC11

26OPECAverageProjections2023OPEC2000–20192020202120222024FISCAL

BREAKEVENOIL

PRICE1OilexportersAlgeria102.151.983.285.675.8...89.666.3111.457.9134.8259.453.3183.562.452.076.746.583.632.353.185.763.6133.6278.366.395.563.285.162.144.785.837.355.1112.477.0126.2351.775.899.870.764.472.244.880.938.155.6111.978.2129.1375.476.483.966.362.266.441.575.140.054.8100/+AzerbaijanBahrain11

26113.7546.556.6Iran100/IraqKazakhstanKuwait2192.176.246.871.769.145.180.4...Libya141.786.4OmanQatar49.3Saudi

ArabiaTurkmenistanUnited

Arab

Emirates76.340.511

26

OPEC2024

H149.951.7Oil

exportersAlgeria85.257.452.540.465.386.737.854.371.350.655.4...80.264.884.636.753.780.537.158.075.643.550.825.918.579.469.534.644.556.1123.933.057.275.743.457.121.716.875.285.939.448.875.765.843.486.085.146.352.731.436.874.260.440.547.267.4102.445.161.564.140.254.730.739.483.563.145.744.176.596.246.255.562.242.757.031.835.3AzerbaijanBahrainIranOPECIraq2024KazakhstanKuwaitLibyaOmanQatarSaudiArabiaTurkmenistanUnited

Arab

EmiratesOPEC45.78:IMF9wind

bloomberg2022

EIA202310:bloomberg

GasBuddyIEA1012IEA121-11811IEA

EIA2001Q3-2001Q49112002Q1-2008Q240%20082009Q2-2009Q42010Q1-2011Q21402008/700%2008Q3-2009Q1

20072011Q3-2014Q22014Q2-2016Q120142016Q2-2018Q3

OPEC2018Q4-2019Q42020Q1-2021Q4Q3

Q42022Q1Q1

Q2OPEC+2021美國(guó)CPI下降時(shí)間段1983-04～1983-071986-01～1986-121990-11～1992-011996-12～1998-022001-05～2002-012003-03～2004-022006-06～2006-102008-07～2009-072010-01～2010-062011-09～2014-022014-06～2015-012020-01～2020-052022-06～2022-10美國(guó)CPI下降時(shí)長(zhǎng)3個(gè)月WTI油價(jià)走勢(shì)小幅上升先下降后上升下降WTI實(shí)際價(jià)格29.85～3219.66～10.4～1830.9～18.9WTI累計(jì)漲跌幅2.2%11個(gè)月14個(gè)月14個(gè)月8個(gè)月11個(gè)月4個(gè)月12個(gè)月5個(gè)月29個(gè)月7個(gè)月-1.7%-12.0%-10.4%-8.9%下降下降小幅上升下降25.92～15.528.37～19.4831.04～36.1671.03～59.50134.02～64.5974.48～84.84～75.675.1%-11.5%-69.4%1.2%下降先上升后回落先漲后跌，高位震蕩

85.54～106.3～100.7915.3%下降下降下降105.15～47.3457.55～29.66111.79～86.25-57.8%-27.9%-25.5%4個(gè)月4個(gè)月13:宏觀如果是穩(wěn)定變量需求穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)往10年平均增速)(過(guò)尋找催化劑使需求增長(zhǎng)加速A品種當(dāng)年供需改善，利潤(rùn)上升供應(yīng)(明確)-跟蹤投尋找供應(yīng)

需求的<產(chǎn)進(jìn)度細(xì)分品種尋找行業(yè)龍頭，產(chǎn)能彈性大的品種考慮估值是否低估考慮行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局逆全球化全球宏觀-動(dòng)化工品需求預(yù)期的波動(dòng)態(tài)變量海外央行利率緊縮14:從歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)判斷PPI及CPI見(jiàn)底后順周期反彈總量思路制造業(yè)景氣周期的波動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)外庫(kù)存周期共振帶來(lái)的補(bǔ)庫(kù)提振需求行業(yè)思路庫(kù)存周期行業(yè)周期行業(yè)利潤(rùn)偏高或偏低均值回歸催化劑供給放緩或出清行業(yè)環(huán)境的變化導(dǎo)致利潤(rùn)中樞上移或下移需求出現(xiàn)實(shí)質(zhì)改善15:16Kpler

wind17bloomberg2023

H1-->Q418EIA/HFI/EIAHFI1,2402022/1,300100/40EIAEIA8100/2022EIAEIA2022EIAEIA

wind2022OPECOPEC2024

7IEA2023

72024100/0EIA

IEA2021LNG2025-202621IEA22IEALNGIEA24OPECOPEC長(zhǎng)期看美國(guó)產(chǎn)量增速下降，新井成本抬升()OPEC原油價(jià)格長(zhǎng)期中樞將高于80美元/桶長(zhǎng)期看中東市場(chǎng)份額增加，話語(yǔ)權(quán)增強(qiáng)沙特等OPEC國(guó)家長(zhǎng)期需要高油價(jià)支撐財(cái)政平衡長(zhǎng)期看歐美高利率政策不可持續(xù)，但利率中樞可能抬升長(zhǎng)期看實(shí)物商品的戰(zhàn)略意義提升25EIA數(shù)據(jù)偏差的加大利益交換，換取產(chǎn)油國(guó)增產(chǎn)歐美消費(fèi)國(guó)抑制通脹放松對(duì)委內(nèi)瑞拉及伊朗制裁希望將巴以控制在局部沖突，避免擴(kuò)大化尚未看到明確制裁伊朗意愿避免制裁俄羅斯減少供應(yīng)油價(jià)維持高位控制供應(yīng)提高需求預(yù)測(cè)OPEC國(guó)家保持市場(chǎng)份額受制裁國(guó)家增產(chǎn)階段性可能引起內(nèi)部分歧26EIA+/-200/1/PhilipVerleger192-3%事件開(kāi)始日期1973-101979-101979-011979-05持續(xù)時(shí)間(周)價(jià)格波幅(%)

斷供幅度%阿拉伯石油禁運(yùn)伊朗石油中斷4231.615.164.530.717.828.458.443.5117.511.218.831.145.227.715.87.8-3.30.22沙特拒絕增產(chǎn)2-2.5-0.2-0.3-1.5-0.50.1沙特削減對(duì)油公司供給1美國(guó)駐伊朗大使館人質(zhì)事件

1979-1114兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)爆發(fā)1980-091990-081999-012002-112008-082007-012007-122伊拉克入侵科威特OPEC減產(chǎn)612委內(nèi)瑞拉石油工人卡特琳娜颶風(fēng)2-5.1-1.2-1.10.74尼日利亞意外減產(chǎn)中國(guó)柴油需求爆發(fā)46歐盟強(qiáng)制推行10ppm低硫柴油

2008-036-1.3-0.71.3利比亞斷供2011-012014-072017-012017-092017-112018-053第二次利比亞斷供OPEC2017減產(chǎn)3持續(xù)中3-1.7-0.60.5哈維颶風(fēng)12.712.7第一次委內(nèi)瑞拉斷供事件康菲委內(nèi)瑞拉索賠事件持續(xù)中持續(xù)中27-0.9PKVerleger

windWorld

oil

demand

and

supplybalance(a)

Total

world

demandTotalOECDTotalNon-OECDTotalNon-OPECproductionProcessinggains202091.1929.3131.6460.952.16202197.1329.7731.8561.612.2920221Q232Q233Q234Q2320231Q242Q243Q244Q24202499.62

101.74

101.26

102.06

103.18

102.06

103.76

103.43

104.74

105.28

104.3130.9732.4463.422.4032.0433.2165.252.4732.0932.8764.962.4732.6732.2664.932.4732.8731.7064.572.4732.4232.5064.922.4733.1032.6365.732.5232.9932.8065.792.5233.4133.0066.412.5233.8533.2467.092.5233.3432.9266.262.52Total

Non-OPEC

liquids

productionOPECNGL+63.1163.9065.8167.7267.4367.3967.0467.3968.2568.3168.9369.6168.78non-conventionaloils(b)

Total

non-OPEC

liquidsproduction

andOPECNGLsOPECcrude

oil

production(secondary

sources)Total

liquids

productionBalance

(stock

change

andmiscellaneous)5.175.2869.1826.355.3971.2128.865.4473.1628.855.4772.9128.285.4372.8227.445.4372.4627.445.4472.8328.005.4973.7427.445.5473.8527.445.5074.4327.445.5075.1127.445.5174.2827.4468.2725.7394.0095.53

100.07

102.01

101.18

100.2699.90

100.84

101.18

101.29

101.87

102.55

101.722.81-1.600.450.27-0.08-1.79-3.27-1.22-2.59-2.14-2.87-2.73-2.581Q232Q233Q234Q23102.52915.850.342.951.1101.4-1.120231Q24101.12916.250.343.952.2102.51.42Q243Q241044Q24103.529.516.251.443.952.1103.502024Total

Demand100.428.315.74944.652.9101.91.5101.728.415.749.743.852.1101.80.1102.628.615.850.342.750.9101.2-1.4101.828.615.749.843.551.8101.6-0.2102.629.116.251.143.952.2103.30.7102.829.216.251.143.952.1103.20.4Total

OECD

SupplyTotal

Non-OECD

SupplyTotal

Non-OPEC+

SupplyOPEC+

Crude29.216.351.643.852.1103.7-0.3Total

OPEC+

LiquidTotal

SupplyStock

Change28EIA

IEA29Rystad/2022/48/7%3640130030RystadEnergybloomberg2023202332IEAIEA20237%20235%20232019IEA2020-2023OPECIOC25%HESSIEA20222022IEA201920156IEA37??2020202320232232023GDP?2022202341072018

1117738??2022

11

212023ROEROE39wind

Bloomberg——2022201744.3-66.5PB0.85-1.1;201850.3-87.31.02-1.550.812X400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%EOG能源先鋒能源康菲石油大陸能源中國(guó)海油布倫特原油40wind80/(/)20231200~1300105040302010045.0242.0339.8234.6732.5430.3930.3929.782…26.344.052013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20222023Q3作業(yè)費(fèi)用（美元/桶油當(dāng)量）

折舊、折耗及攤銷(xiāo)（美元/桶油當(dāng)量）2023650-66041wind?2022ROEEOG2022ROE類(lèi)型代碼名稱(chēng)凈資產(chǎn)收益率銷(xiāo)售凈利率資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率權(quán)益乘數(shù)COP

US

EquityOXY

US

EquityDVN

US

EquityPXD

US

EquityEOG

US

Equity883

HK

Equity600938.SH康菲石油西方石油戴文能源先鋒能源EOG資源0.2970.2320.3570.2450.2480.2630.2630.2720.2100.2730.3150.3140.3660.3360.3360.3070.8180.4870.8460.6170.6460.4900.4900.6281.9142.4222.1091.6531.6701.5901.5901.850純油氣標(biāo)的中國(guó)海油中國(guó)海油純油氣標(biāo)的平均XOM

US

EquityCVX

US

EquityTTE

FPEquityBP/

LN

EquitySHEL

LN

EquityENI

IM

EquityEQNR

NO

Equity386

HK

Equity600028.SH-?？松梨谘┓瘕?.2650.1610.2550.2820.1870.1960.2660.0850.0850.1130.1900.1560.1540.0820.1050.1140.0990.2040.0230.0200.0460.1001.0900.9200.8340.8650.8990.8470.9131.7301.7301.2501.1081.7891.5952.4743.1962.1952.5542.6672.4602.4601.9702.336道達(dá)爾集團(tuán)BP公司殼牌綜合性油公司埃尼挪威石油中國(guó)石油化工中國(guó)石化中國(guó)石油-601857.SH綜合性油公司平均42wind

BloombergPV-10?PV-10PVSECProved

PV-10PV-10SECPV-10DCF10%??PV-10PV-10PV-10PV-10PV-102022

PV-10300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000050.0%

140,000120.0%100.0%80.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%40.0%30.0%120,00020.0%

100,00010.0%80,00060,00040,00020,00000.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%-50.0%-20.0%-40.0%-60.0%-80.0%2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022PV-10估值(百萬(wàn)美元)

PV-10

YoY(右軸）2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022PV-10

PV-10

YoY(估值

百萬(wàn)美元()右軸）43wind

Bloomberg2023?2023202275%70%2323%202315%2023

11

-202410%

225%20234-2023

1080%2240%-80%

233280%

120%2270%

80%

20231.68/0.168/??232023202280%2022LNG/3.1-3.6/?202336%20235191.6815%18%202310%氣（即受20%漲幅限制）非氣調(diào)峰量國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣銷(xiāo)售實(shí)現(xiàn)價(jià)格同比增速居民用氣均衡1均衡2（固定價(jià)格）80%（22年40%-80%）27%（22年25%）80%（22年70%-80%）42%均衡2（浮動(dòng)價(jià)格）掛靠JKM現(xiàn)貨3%2021年6.5%2022年27.6%2023年預(yù)計(jì)10.0%2023年4月-2023年10月較門(mén)站價(jià)上浮比例資源配置占比2023年11月-2024年3月較門(mén)站價(jià)上浮比例資源配置占比15%（22年5%）15%70%（22年75%）數(shù)據(jù)：公司年報(bào)、證券

研究15%（22年5%）55%20%掛靠JKM現(xiàn)貨3%120%44wind2023LNGLNG202445IEA

westwood

global

energy2023202346IEA

westwood

global

energy-Refinery(%)Europe2022Q1

2022Q2

2022Q3

2022Q4E

2023Q1E

2023Q2E

2023Q3E

2023Q4E

2022E

2023E74%85%80%74%55%87%77%76%77%75%54%89%59%77%83%77%76%53%89%60%76%84%79%78%54%87%61%76%78%79%79%51%87%59%76%81%78%81%49%88%57%79%80%79%83%52%87%59%78%81%80%82%61%86%57%76%82%78%76%54%88%58%77%80%79%81%53%87%58%FsuEastAsiaMiddleEastAfricaNorthAmericaCentral&SouthAmerica

53%World

78%4777%78%78%78%78%79%79%78%78%Eni-

2500020000150001000050000歷史高位歷史低位當(dāng)前價(jià)格平均值乙烯-石腦油丙烯-石腦油丁二烯-石腦油-5000100%歷史分位600090%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%歷史高位歷史低位當(dāng)前價(jià)格平均值500040003000200010000汽油-原油柴油-原油煤油-原油-1000-2000-3000-4000PXPTA汽油柴油

航空煤油

乙烯丙烯丁二烯48wind

Kpler——??2023CPI700600500400300200100014012010080凈利（億元，右軸）迪拜原油（美元/桶，左軸）凈利潤(rùn)(億元,左軸)迪拜原油(美元/桶，右軸)14012010080250200150100506060040-50-100-150402020-100-2000049wind——??+“4000EVA

POE

ABS

DMC2023//++4000900204045951%51%PX160160100%1060600265950884.60%51%600306PTA55016530%21010550%19501084110110100%70%20130200701412410050%59.22159.2217.584.60%2702570%50——Q312.34+1367%+262%12.58+580%

2023Q3//PX/PTA

///LLDPE/HDPE/PP/

MT

B

E+4.15%/+5.41%/+3.93%/+1.99%/+7.06%/

+0.08%/+1.83%/+3.49%/+1.76%/+2.95%

2023Q386.58ABS/+10.32%202281770/EVA

100/LDPE

18/PMMA

160/35α-40/POE10001191479.61000140()///800.00140α-3527700.00600.00500.00400.00300.00200.00100.000.003038271204025POE408662010060-1SAR10060303030EVALDPEA2425HDPE3525/ABSHRG401061032850605020LDPEEVADMCPMMAABS70402018120661,4--100.00PBS營(yíng)

業(yè)成本

（億元

）歸

母凈利

潤(rùn)（億

元）2080123PTMGNMP51wind——??2000202352——??62066.33%33.67%BOPET100%PBT24PBTPBAT110.4638.

6PBS/PBAT61.46

20223.320222.19??2023202345471015PBT8PBAT20235314.42022126202434.4PP1816(PP)(PE)PE200053——-700.00600.00500.00400.00300.00200.00100.000.002000520PBT24PXPBAT3.3160180120DMC208572ABS3023A404014PC26PBS/PBAT/PBT454710-100.00150PTA1660PBTPBAT158營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元）151530BDO

1,4PTMEG416POYPOY10306054——C2/C3?PDH2023Q4/C2/2023Q1/2023Q2/2023Q324.95/20.58/23.37/502023Q3LLDPEPDH8352+1.3%

HDPE9110/+1.83%-2023120.00250.00200.00150.00100.0050.00100.0080.0060.0040.0020.000.000.00-50.00營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）同比(%)2023PDH150010005000價(jià)差:丙烯-1.2丙烷(美元/噸，右軸)現(xiàn)貨價(jià)(中間價(jià)):丙烯:CFR中國(guó)現(xiàn)貨價(jià):丙烷(冷凍貨):CFR華東1,000500025.0020.0015.0010.005.002,000.001,500.001,000.00500.000.000.00-500.0055歸

母凈利

（億元

）同

比((500)17-08wind18-0819-0820-0821-0822-0823-08——C2α-??ETPα-EAA20228PDH202320236α-α-POEα-/125EO/EGHDPE146/182

202158ETP4050125/11525Energy

TransferPartenersMarcus

HookPennsylvaniaHouston140HDPE40607380207520222022BorealisReliancnterpriseProductPartenersMorgan

s

Point410Sabic3Braskem40α-POE10313Energy

TransferPartenersNederlandTerminal250506010080Texas36552-α-POEA

ECMartin

TerminalBeaumont1000-α-202656PVC5α-1.5wind——79%

圖：天然氣銷(xiāo)售業(yè)務(wù)帶動(dòng)營(yíng)業(yè)規(guī)模高增長(zhǎng)

圖：23H1天然氣銷(xiāo)售業(yè)務(wù)貢獻(xiàn)70%的稅前利潤(rùn)

圖：天然氣銷(xiāo)售業(yè)務(wù)稅前利潤(rùn)率持續(xù)提升

圖：23H1稅前利潤(rùn)率持續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)57資料：公司年報(bào)，證券研究——

圖：工業(yè)用戶(hù)氣量占比從46%提升至65%圖：工業(yè)用戶(hù)數(shù)量同比保持高增速

圖：公司毛差長(zhǎng)期保持穩(wěn)定（元/方）圖：公司具備氣源成本優(yōu)勢(shì)（元/方）表：2023年中國(guó)石油氣源供給價(jià)格整體抬升58——-

-

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