貝恩 -2024全球能源和自然資源行業(yè)高管調(diào)研

RealityCheck:EnergyandNaturalResourceExecutivePulse2024

Executivesexpectaslowerenergytransitionasitgetsmoredifficulttogeneratereturnsandprogressdivergesacrossregions.

ByGrantDougans,NeelamPhadke,andJoeScalise

BAiN&CMPNY

Acknowledgment

TheauthorswishtothankNickBakerforhiscontributionstothisanalysis.

Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Companyandarangeof

interviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&CompanyhasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBain

andmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analysesandconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Company’sjudgment,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindoesnotconstituteadviceofanykind,isnotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes,andneitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiariesortheirrespectiveofficers,directors,shareholders,employeesoragentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseof

orrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&Companyandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproducedorreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&Company.

Copyright?2024Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.

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RealityCheck:EnergyandNaturalResourceExecutivePulse2024

AtaGlance

About62%ofexecutivesexpecttheworldtoreachnet-zeroemissionsby2060orlater,upfrom54%inlastyear’sBainsurvey.

Mostremaincommittedtoinvestingintheirtransition-orientedgrowthbusinesses,butROIchallengesareintensifying.

NorthAmericaisviewedasthemostattractiveregionforinvestment,despiteconcernsaboutpolicystability.

ExecutivesintheMiddleEast,Asia-Pacific,andLatinAmericafeelincreasinglyoptimisticabouttheirenergytransition–relatedbusinesses.

IndustryleadersbelievegenerativeAIhasthepotentialtoimprovemaintenance,production,andsupplychains,amongotherareas.

Theenergytransitionlooksslowerasitbecomesevenmoredifficulttoensureadequateinvestmentreturnsandprogressdivergesacrossafragmentingworld.That’sthemainmessagefromBain’s

annualsurveyof600-plusexecutivesinoilandgas,utilities,chemicals,mining,andagribusiness,takenduringCOP28andtheweeksafter.

Aswithpreviousyears,our2024surveyaimstogetabettersenseofindustryleaders’viewsontheenergytransition,newtechnologies,investmentopportunities,andwheretheyseethegreatest

challengesfordecarbonization.Thisyear’ssurveyfoundthatenergyandnaturalresource(ENR)companieshaven’tdampenedambitionsfortheirtransition-orientedgrowthbusinesses.However,customers’willingnesstopayisagrowingissue,asistheabilitytogenerateadequatereturnon

investmentinenergytransition-orientedprojects.Asaresult,companiesarefocusingonprojectswithaviableROIpath.

Clearly,thelongerthatexecutivesonthefrontlinesoftheenergytransitiongrapplewiththechallengesofputtingdecarbonizationplansintoaction,themoresoberthey’regettingaboutthetransition’spracticalrealities.

Energytransitionprogressisdivergingacrossregionsastheworldfractureseconomicallyand

geopolitically.Evenasincreasinggovernmentsubsidiesmakesomeregions,suchasNorthAmerica,moreattractiveforinvestment,executiveshavegrowingconcernsaboutpolicystability.

Macroeconomicheadwinds(notably,highinterestrates)havemadeitthatmuchhardertoassemblesufficientcapitaltoscaleuptransitionprojectsandtoattractenoughcustomerstodeliverareturn.

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RealityCheck:EnergyandNaturalResourceExecutivePulse2024

Therearebrightspots.Forexample,executivesintheMiddleEast,Asia-Pacific,andLatinAmericaarefeelingmoreoptimisticabouttheprospectsoftheirtransition-orientedgrowthbusinesses.

Asindustryleadersprepareforthismonth’sCERAWeekenergyconference,thesesurveyresultsprovideinsightintowhat’stopofmindforENRexecutives.Herearefiveofthemostnotable

themesthathaveemerged.

1.Fewerexecutivesexpecttheworldtoachievenet-zerocarbonemissionsby2050

DespiteENRcompanies’continuedinvestmentsindecarbonization,about62%ofexecutivesnowanticipatetheworldwillreachnetzeroby2060orlater,upfrom54%inlastyear’ssurvey(seeFigure1).Thisviewisconsistentacrossmostregionsandismoststronglyheldamongoilandgasexecutives.

Aslowerrateofdecarbonizationmakescompanies’resilienceandadaptabilityplansallthemoreimportant,inordertowithstandmoresevereimpactsofclimatechange.

2.Mostcompaniesaremaintainingorincreasinginvestmentsintheirtransition-orientedgrowthbusinesses

Thisyear’ssurveyfoundgrowingoptimismamongmostENRexecutivesintheMiddleEast,

Asia-Pacific,andLatinAmericaaboutthecontributionsthattransition-orientedgrowthbusinesses(suchasrenewables,hydrogen,bio-basedproducts,andlithiumandothertransitioncommodities)willmaketotheircompany’svaluationandprofitsby2030(seeFigure2).

3.Butexecutivesaremoreconcernedthaneveraboutgeneratingacceptablereturnstoscaleuptheirtransition-relatedbusinesses

ThefinancialviabilityofenergytransitionprojectsisagrowingissueforENRexecutives.Likelastyear,theysaythegreatestobstacletoscalinguptheirtransition-orientedbusinessesisfinding

enoughcustomerswillingtopayhigherprices(orhavingequivalentpolicysupport)tocreatesufficientreturnoninvestment.However,theshareofexecutivesidentifyingthisasavery

significantroadblockjumped14percentagepointsfrom2023to2024,to70%ofexecutives(seeFigure3).

Inourview,thedirectimpactofhigherinterestratesonthecostoftransitionprojectsisone

ofthemostimportantstoriesof2023andislikelyshapingexecutives’perspectiveonthisissue.A500-basis-pointincreaseinthecostofcapitalcanincreasethetotalannualrevenuerequiredtofinanceaprojectbyasmuchas50%,asdetailedintheBainBrief“TheEnergyTransition’s

OtherBigPuzzle:MakingtheMathWork.”

ENRexecutivesviewtaxesandcarbonpricing,alongwithgovernmentsubsidies,astopleverstoinfluencecustomerbehavior,accordingtoour2024survey.

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4%

RealityCheck:EnergyandNaturalResourceExecutivePulse2024

Figure1:Theexpectednet-zerotimelineisshiftinglater

Shareofenergyandnaturalresourceexecutiveswhoexpecttheworldtoreachnet-zerocarbonemissionsbytargetdate

46%

38%

2023survey

2024survey

31%

26%

31%

28%

2050orearlier20602070orlater

Sources:BainENRTransitionSurvey2023(n=608);BainENRTransitionSurvey2024(n=638)

Figure2:Optimismisgrowinginsomeregions

Howhaveyourexpectationschangedsincelastyearregardingcontributionsofnewenergytransition-orientedgrowthareastoyourprofitandvaluationby2030?

Shareofexecutives

MiddleEast

Asia-Pacific

LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

Lessoptimisic

Moreoptimistic

61%

12%

55%

51%

10%

17%

29%

Europe27%30%

Note:Excludesthosewhoresponded“nosignificantchange”

Source:BainENRTransitionSurvey2024(n=638)

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RealityCheck:EnergyandNaturalResourceExecutivePulse2024

Figure3:Financialviabilityisstillamajorroadblockfortheenergytransition

Shareofexecutiveswhoconsidereachfactortobeaverysignificantroadblocktoscalingtheirenergytransition-orientedgrowthbusinesses

.2023survey

.2024survey

70%

56%

Lackofcustomer

willingnessto

payorROI

50%54%

Governmentpolicy

andregulations

34%30%

Lackoforganizational

capabilityfor

scalingatspeed

23%29%

Lackofcash/capital

Note:Notallcategoriesareshown

Sources:BainENRTransitionSurvey2023(n=608);BainENRTransitionSurvey2024(n=638)

29%30%

Supplychain

constraints

31%28%

Lackofexperience/talent

innewbusinessareas

4.NorthAmericaisnowviewedasthemostattractiveregionforinvestment,butpolicystabilityisagrowingconcern

NorthAmericahasmomentum,with79%ofallexecutivesviewingitasanattractiveregionforenergytransitioninvestments.Thenext-mostattractiveregionisEuropeat65%.Interestingly,executivesfromeveryregionrankedNorthAmericaasmoreattractivethanEurope—includingexecutivesbasedinEurope(seeFigure4).

TheUSInflationReductionAct(IRA)iscertainlyakeyfactorinNorthAmerica’sinvestment

attractiveness,buttherearelikelyadditionaldynamicsatplay,suchastheavailabilityofrelativelylow-costnaturalgasfeedstock.Andyet,there’sriskinNorthAmerica,too.Whilealmosttwo-thirdsofUSexecutiveswesurveyedagreethattheIRA’ssubsidiestargettherightareas,lessthanone-

quarterbelievethatthepolicyregimewillremainstableoverthenextfiveto10years(seeFigure5).Furthermore,42%ofUSexecutivesthinktheIRA’ssubsidiesaren’tclearandthattherulesaren’t

easytofollow.About70%ofexecutivesworldwidesaythatreducingpolicyuncertaintywouldverysignificantlyimprovetheirabilitytoscaleuptransition-orientedbusinesses.

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RealityCheck:EnergyandNaturalResourceExecutivePulse2024

Figure4:NorthAmericaisthemostattractivemarketforgreeninvestments

Shareofexecutivesfromeachregionwhoconsideraregion“attractive”forenergytransitioninvestments

Ranking

1st

2nd

3rd

NorthAmerica

83%

NorthAmerica

61%

Europe

48%

Australiaand

NewZealand

Europe

80%

NorthAmerica

75%

Europe

41%

Australiaand

NewZealand

MiddleEast

74%

MiddleEast

65%

NorthAmerica

52%

Europe

Asia-Pacific

76%

NorthAmerica

60%

Europe

50%

India

LatinAmerica

73%

NorthAmerica

71%

LatinAmerica

53%

AustraliaandNewZealand

Source:BainENRTransitionSurvey2024(n=638)

Figure5:USexecutiveswantclearer,morestableenergytransitionpolicies

ShareofUSexecutiveswhoagreewiththefollowingstatementsregardingInflationReductionActsubsidies

DisagreeAgree

14%

63%

Subsidiesaretargetedatareas

thatwillbenefitmylow-carbon

growthbusinesses

42%

20%

Subsidiesareclearandthe

rulesareeasytofollowto

accessthebenefits

31%

23%

Thesubsidyregimewillremain

sufficientlystableoverthenext

5-10yearstosupportour

investmentdecisions

Note:Excludesthosewhoresponded“neitheragreenordisagree”

Source:BainENRTransitionSurvey2024(n=638)

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RealityCheck:EnergyandNaturalResourceExecutivePulse2024

Aslowerrateof

decarbonizationmakescompanies’resilienceand

adaptabilityplansallthemore

important.

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Improvingmaintenance

(incl.predictivemaintenance)

Productionoptimization

Supplychainoptimization

Closingthetalentgap

Reducingcarbonintensity

ofyouroperations

Reducingemissionsfromtheenduse

ofyourproducts(i.e.,scope3emissions)

RealityCheck:EnergyandNaturalResourceExecutivePulse2024

5.Artificialintelligenceisincreasinglyseenasadifferencemaker

TheshareofENRexecutiveswhobelieveAI(includinggenerativeAI)anddigitaltechnologieswillhaveasignificanteffectontheirbusinessesby2030increasedfrom56%lastyearto65%thisyear.

Improvingmaintenance,production,andthesupplychainarecurrentlyamongthemostpromisinggenerativeAIapplicationsacrossENRsectors.Meanwhile,executivesareskepticalthatgenerativeAIwillplayasignificantroleinreducingemissions(seeFigure6).Thisisunsurprising,givenAI’s

significantenergyrequirementsandthefactthattheenergytransitionisfirstandforemostaboutconstructingmassiveamountsofphysicalinfrastructure.

InourexperienceworkingwithENRcompanies,mostarefocusingfirstonapplicationswith

aclearer,shorterpathtoareturnoninvestment.Forexample,somechemicalcompaniesareusinggenerativeAItoolstoincreasethespeedandaccuracyofqualityassuranceprocessesincapital

programs,reducingreworkandtotalcostofownership.Utilities,ontheotherhand,areaugmentingcustomerservicefunctions.

Figure6:WherewillgenerativeAImakeabigdifference?

ShareofexecutiveswhothinkthatgenerativeAIwouldhaveasignificantimpactonthesefunctions

70%

58%

54%

29%

25%

21%

Notes:OnlyincludesresponsesfromthosewhoexpectsignificantimpactfromAIanddigitaltechnologiesontheirbusinessesby2030;notallcategoriesofpotentialgenerativeAIusecasesareshown

Source:BainENRTransitionSurvey2024(n=638)

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RealityCheck:EnergyandNaturalResourceExecutivePulse2024

ENRcompaniesarealsousinggenerativeAIincombinationwithotherAItechnologiestounlock

greatervalue.Forsometime,onerenewableenergydeveloperhasbeenusingAI-enabledanalyticssoftwaretotryandspotmaintenanceissuesbeforetheyoccur.Now,thecompany’sfieldtechniciansarealsousingnewergenera