現(xiàn)代大學(xué)英語（第三版）精讀3 課件 B3U7

ContentsUnit7Watchthevideoclip

andanswerthefollowingquestionsMorequestionsaboutthetextLead-inWhatisGlobalization?

Watchthevideoclip

andanswerthefollowingquestions:1.Whatisthebackgroundtoglobalization?2.

Accordingtothespeaker,whatisavailableformorepeoplebecauseofglobalization?3.Whatisafurtherdisadvantageofglobalizationmentionedinthisvideo?Lead-in1.Whatisthebackgroundtoglobalization?

Advancesintechnologysuchasmobilephones,aeroplanes,telephonesandtheInternethavemadethegrowthoftransportandcommunicationnetworkspossible.Amongstotherthings,thismeansthatpeopleandcountriescanexchangeinformationandgoodsmorequickly,andinalesscomplicatedway.Thisprocessiscalled“Globalization”.2.

Accordingtothespeaker,whatisavailableformorepeoplebecauseofglobalization?

Moreaffordableproductsareavailableformorepeople.However,notonlydoesanexchangeofproductsandeconomicgoodstakeplace,butalsoofservices,knowledge,culturalgoodsandevenlanguages.Lead-in3.Whatisafurtherdisadvantageofglobalizationmentionedinthisvideo?

Afurtherdisadvantageofglobalizationisecologicalproblemssuchasclimatechange.Theuseofaeroplanes,shipsandlorriestotransportgoodsoverinternationalbordersisconstantlyontheincrease.Thiscausesmorecarbondioxidetobereleasedintotheatmospherewhich,inturn,isthemaincauseofglobalwarming.Lead-inLead-inMorequestionsaboutthetext:1.Whydidtheauthorwritethisessayattheedgeofthiscentury?Howhad“globalization”cometobeatrendywordbythattime?Whatinhisopinionmadeitpossiblefortheworldeconomytobeinterdependent?2.Whatistheauthor’soverallpositionontheissueofglobalization?Isheforitoragainstit?Whydoeshesaythatitisa“double-edgedsword”?3.Howcanglobalizationbenefitallnations?Howdoestheauthorprovethis?4.Whohavebeensomeofthemostenthusiasticsupportersofglobalization?HowabouttheUnitedStates?HowabouttheEuropeancountries?5.Wouldyousaythatglobalizationhasbeenmainlythegameoftheeconomicallypowerfulcountries?Whathasbeenthegeneralattitudeofdevelopingcountries?HowaboutChina?Lead-inMorequestionsaboutthetext:6.Whatisthefirstproblemintheauthor’sopinionthatcanneutralizethepotentialbenefitsofglobalizationandmakeithighlyrisky?Whatexampledoestheauthorusetoillustratehispoint?7.Whatistheotherproblemthatmaythreatenthefutureofglobalization,accordingtotheauthor?Whatdoestheauthormeanwhenhearguesthatmanyofpeople’scomplaintsarepolitical,cultural,andsocial?8.Doestheauthorbelievethatsinceglobalizationislargelyspontaneous,itisinevitableorcompletelyirreversible?Whyorwhynot?9.Theauthormaintainsthatglobalizationcanharmnationsunderunfavorableconditions.Whatmighttheunfavorableconditionsbeinyouropinion?10.Hasthehistoryofthepasttwodecadesborneouttheauthor’sviewsinthisessay?Whatistheanswertothedauntingquestiontheauthorraisesaboutglobalizationattheverybeginningoftheessay?Text1.Abouttheauthor2.Background

3.Structure4.GotothetextGlobalization’sDualPower

RobertJ.SamuelsonText1.AbouttheauthorRobertJacobSamuelson(bornDecember23,1945)isaconservativejournalistforTheWashingtonPost,wherehehaswrittenaboutbusinessandeconomicissuessince1977.HewasacolumnistforNewsweekmagazinefrom1984to2011.HebeganhiscareerinjournalismasareporteronthebusinessdeskofTheWashingtonPostin1969andleftthepapertobecomeafreelancerin1973.HisworkhasappearedinTheSundayTimes,TheNewRepublicandtheColumbiaJournalismReview.HejoinedtheNationalJournalin1976,wherehewrotethe“EconomicFocus”column.Hewasacontributingeditortherefrom1981to1984,whenhelefttowriteforNewsweek.Atage75,Samuelsonpostedhislastop-edarticleinTheWashingtonPostonSeptember14,2020.Text2.Background

Globalizationisatrendywordtoday.Moreandmorepeoplenowbelievethattheworldisbecomingincreasinglyintegrated.Indeed,peoplenowthinkthatitisbecomingasmallglobalvillage.Globalization,theysay,isnotjustanirresistibletrend.Itisalreadyafact.Actually,initsbroadestsense,globalizationstartedalongtimeago.OnecouldtraceittotheearlycaravansacrosstheSaharaDesertandalongtheSilkRoad;thetradearoundtheMediterraneanorinthewakeoftheCrusades,oracrosstheAtlanticafterColumbus“discovered”America.TextTheprocessreacheditsfirstpeakaroundtheendofthe19thcentury,andalthoughitwastemporarilysuspendedbywidespreadprotectionism,thetidereturnedinthelatterhalfofthe20thcenturywithmoretranquilinternationalrelationssupportedbytheUnitedNations,theGATT(todaytheWTO),theWorldBankandtheIMF.Thepaceofinternationaleconomicintegrationacceleratedinthe1980sand1990s,especiallyaftertheColdWarended.Manypoliticalbarriersthathamperedinternationaltradewerereducedorremoved,andgreattechnologicaldevelopmentfacilitatedeasytransportationandcommunication.Themostdramaticexampleofthisnewroundofglobalizationisnodoubttheopening-upofChina.ButChinaisnottheonlycountrycaughtupinthisprocess.Todayeventhemostsecludedandisolatedcountriesaretakingtheirfirstcautiousstepsinthisdirection.TextHowever,thisisonlyonesideofthestory.Therealsoexiststheoppositetendency,thetendencyofprotectionism,regionalism,unilateralism,separatism,andanti-globalization.Thereasonforthisissimple.Astheauthorputsit,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword.Itcutsbothways.Ontheonehand,itcanbringnewproductsandservices,newinvestmentandmarkets,newtechnologiesandmanagementskillsandgenerallyhigherlivingstandards.Ontheother,itcanalsobringmoredebt,moreinstability,agreatergapbetweentherichandthepoor,farworseenvironmentaldegradation,andthelossofnationalaandculturalidentity.Inspiteofallthepromisesofawin-winsituation,inthisgame,nationsarenotequallypositioned.Theydonothavealevelplayground.Therefore,thereareboundtobewinnersandlosers.TextPeopleinmanydevelopingcountriesareafraidthattheywouldlosetheirhardwonindependence.TheysuspectthatglobalizationisjustanothernameforAmericanization.Theyfeelthattheyarebeingmarginalizedratherthanintegrated.Nowondertherehasbeenanincreasinglyintensemassprotestagainstglobalizationaroundtheworldinrecentyears.Thisdoesnotmeanthatglobalizationiscompletelywrong.Itsimplymeansthatitismorecomplicatedthanwethought.Itmeansthatmanynewproblemswillhavetobelookedintoandproperlyresolved.Globalizationprobablywilleventuallyprevail.Butitwillhavetobeamoreequitable,morehumane,moreuniversallybeneficialkindofglobalization.Inthisessaywrittenattheedgeofthe21stcentury,theauthordrawsourattentiontothedualcharacterofthistrendandurgespeopletodealwiththenewproblems.TextChina’s15-year-longunremittingeffortstojointheWTOshowthatwehavemadeourchoice.Wehavedecided,afterweighingtheprosandconscarefully,thatwecannotaffordtobeleftoutofthistrend,thetrendthatwedecidedtoembracein1978.Ourachievementssincethattimehaveprovedthewisdomofpursuingthispolicy.However,wemustnotforgettheothersideofthestory.Ourrealchallengesarestillaheadasglobalizationrequiresbigchangesinideas,attitudes,policiesandinstitutionalstructures.Itisforthisreasonthatweoughttoknowaboutglobalizationinallitssubtletyandcomplexity.Weshouldthinkabouthowwestudents,asindividuals,canadjustourselvestothechallengesofamoreopencountryandavailourselvesofthenewopportunities.TextText3.StructurePartI.Theauthor’spositiononglobalization(paras.1–2)Globalizationhasdualpower:itraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnology,andraiseslivingstandards;butitcanalsohurtnationalsovereignty,threatenlocalculture,andcauseeconomicandsocialinstability.PartII.Thedefinitionandpositiveeffectsofglobalization(paras.3–17)1.Theauthordefinesglobalizationasthenewstageofthenever-endingprocessofmarketexpansionasaresultoffavorablepoliticalconditionsandtechnologicaldevelopmentswhenproduction,marketing,andallothereconomicandfinancialactivitiesgoglobal.2.Bothdevelopedanddevelopingcountries,multinationalcompaniesandgovernmentsgainbenefitsfromglobalization.TextPartIII.Theproblemsmakingglobalizationrisky(paras.18–33)1.Oneproblemiseconomicinstability.Globalizationcanmakeeconomicrecessions/crisesglobalandgiveharsherblowstoanation.TheAsianfinancialcrisisintheearly1990scanserveasanexample,inwhichvastflowsofforeigncapitalcausedoverspendingorwasteasaresultof“cronycapitalism,”ineptgovernmentinvestmentpolicies,andexcessoptimism.2.Theotherproblemisthatpeopleoftenfindforeignpolitical,cultural,andsocialinfluencesalienandmenacing.PartIV.Theconclusion(para.34)Theauthorendstheessaybyrepeatinghiswarningthatifwearenotcareful,globalization’spromisemayexceednotitsperil.Oneofthegreatdramasofthenewcenturyistoseehowitturnsout.Globalization’sDualPowerRobertJ.Samuelson1

Attheedgeofanewcentury,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword:apowerfulvehiclethatraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnologyandraiseslivingstandardsinrichandpoorcountriesalike;butalsoanimmenselycontroversialprocessthatassaultsnationalsovereignty,erodeslocalcultureandtraditionandthreatenseconomicandsocialinstability.2

Adauntingquestionofthe21stcenturyiswhethernationswillcontrolthisgreatupheavalorwhetheritwillcometocontrolthem.Text3

Insomerespectsglobalizationismerelyatrendywordforanoldprocess.Whatwecallthemarketissimplythejoiningofbuyersandsellers,producersandconsumers,andsaversandinvestors.Economichistoryconsistslargelyofthestoryofthemarket’sexpansion:fromfarmtotown,fromregiontonationandfromnationtonation.Inthe20thcentury,theDepressionandtwoworldwarsretardedthemarket’sgrowth.ButafterWorldWarIIended,itreaccelerated,drivenbypoliticalpressuresandbettertechnology.4

Fromthelate1940sthroughthe1980s,theUnitedStateschampionedtradeliberalizationandeconomicgrowth.Asuccessionofmajortradenegotiationsreducedaveragetariffsinindustrializedcountriestoabout5percentin1990fromabout40percentin1946.Text5

Aftertwoworldwars,Europeanssaweconomicunificationasanantidotetodeadlynationalism.Technologycomplementedpolitics.Ever,beforetheInternet,decliningcostsforcommunicationandtransportation—fromjetplanes,betterunderseatelephonecablesandsatellites—favoredmoreglobalcommerce.Bytheearly1990s,worldexports(afteradjustingforinflation)werenearly10timeshigherthantheyhadbeenfourdecadesearlier.6

Globalizationcontinuesthisprocessbutalsodepartsfromitinatleastonecriticalrespect.Untilrecently,countrieswereviewedasdistincteconomicentities,connectedmainlybytrade.Now,thisisbecominglesstrue.Companiesandfinancialmarketsincreasinglydisregardnationalborderswhenmakingproduction,marketingandinvestmentdecisions.Text7

Asrecentlyas1990,governments—eitherindividuallyorthroughsuchmultilateralinstitutionsastheWorldBank—providedhalftheloansandcreditsto29majordevelopingcountries(includingBrazil,China,India,SouthKoreaandMexico),accordingtotheInstituteofInternationalFinance,abankingindustryresearchgroupinWashington.8

Adecadelater,evenafterAsia’s1997–1998financialcrisis,privatecapitalflowsdwarfedgovernmentalflows.In1999,privateflows(bankloans,bondfinancing,equityinvestmentinlocalstockmarketsanddirectinvestmentbymultinationalcompanies)totaledanestimated$136billiontothese29countries,comparedwithgovernmentcapitalflowof$22billion,accordingtotheinstitute.Text9

Meanwhile,multinationalcompanieshavegoneonaninternationalacquisition

binge.Inthefirsthalfof1999alone,thevalueofnewcross-bordermergersandacquisitionspassed$500billioninbothadvancedanddevelopingcountries.

10

Thetotalroughlymatchedtheamountforall1998($544billion)andwasalmostseventimeslargerthanthe1991level($85billion),accordingtotheWorldInvestmentReportbytheUnitedNations.TherecenttakeoverstrugglebetweenBritishandGermanwirelessgiants—VodafoneAirTouchPLCandMannesmannAG—isexceptionalonlyforitssizeandbitterness.Text11

Behindthemergerboomliesthegrowingcorporateconvictionthatmanymarketshavebecometrulyglobal.Bytryingtomaximizetheirpresenceinasmanynationsaspossible,companiesseektoachieveeconomiesofscale—thatis,tolowercoststhroughhighersalesandproductionvolumes—andtostayabreastoftechnologicalchangesthatcannowoccuralmostanywhere.12

Inaddition,companiesincreasinglyorganizeproductionglobally,dividingproductdesign,componentmanufacturingandfinalassemblyamongmanycountries.Text13

Butitisnotjustmultinationalcompanies,seekingbiggersalesandprofits,thatdriveglobalization.Governmentsdo,too.InEurope,therelentlesspursuitofthe“singlemarket”isoneindicator.ThisreflectsawidespreadrecognitionthatEuropeancompanieswillbehard-pressedtocompeteinglobalmarketsiftheirlocaloperationsarehamstrungbyfragmented

nationalmarkets.14

Amongpoorercountries,thebestsignofsupportistheclamortogetintotheWorldTradeOrganization.Since1995,sevencountries—Bulgaria,Ecuador,Estonia,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,MongoliaandPanama—havejoined.And32areseekingmembership.Thereisabeliefthatglobaltradeandinvestmentcanaideconomicdevelopmentbyprovidingnewproducts,technologiesandmanagementskills.Text15

It’snomyth.Countriessucceedorfailmainlybasedontheirownworkers,investmentandgovernmentpolicies.Butengagingthewiderworldeconomycanhelp.16

ConsiderAsia.Despiteitsfinancialcrisis,rapidtradeexpansionandeconomicgrowthsharplycutthenumberofthedesperatelypoor.From1987to1998,thoseintheregion,includingChina,withincomesof$1orlessadaydroppedto15percentfrom27percentofthepopulation,theWorldBankestimates.17

Meanwhile,LatinAmericaandsub-SaharanAfrica—whoseembraceoftheworldeconomyhasbeenlateorlimited—faredmuchlesswell.InAfrica,forexample,theWorldBankreckonsthat46percentofthepopulationlivedonlessthan$1adayin1998,exactlywhatthepercentagewasin1987.Text18Well,ifglobalizationissogood,whyisitalsosorisky?Theansweristhattwoproblemscouldneutralizeitspotentialbenefits.19

Thefirstiseconomicinstability.Theglobaleconomymaybepronetoharsherboom-bustcyclesthannationaleconomiesindividually.Thetheorythatinternationaltradeandinvestmentraiselivingstandardsworksonlyifinvestmentfundsarewellusedandiftradeflowsdonotbecometoolopsided.20

TheAsianfinancialcrisisraisedquestionsonbothcounts.Intheearly1990s,mostofAsiathrivedbecauseitreceivedvastflowsofforeigncapitalasbankloans,directinvestmentinfactoriesorstock-marketinvestmentinlocalcompanies.Text21

TheensuingspendingboominturnaidedEurope,JapanandtheUnitedStatesbyincreasingimportsfromthem.Thentheboomabruptlyhaltedinmid-1997when,itbecameapparentthatasaresultof“cronycapitalism,”ineptgovernmentinvestmentpoliciesandexcessoptimism,muchoftheinvestmenthadbeenwastedonunneededfactories,officebuildingsandapartments.22

WhatpreventedtheAsiancrisisfrombecomingafull-scaleglobaleconomicdownturnhasbeentheU.S.economy,tosomeextent.Text23

Itsgrowthhelpedtherestoftheworldbypurchasingmoreandmoreoftheirexports.Since1996,theU.S.current-account

deficitinitsbalanceofpayments—thebroadestmeasureofthecountry’sinternationaltrade—hasmorethandoubled,from$129billiontoanestimatedtotalof$330billionin1999.24

Theworldeconomy,asTreasurySecretaryLawrenceSummershasrepeatedlysaid,hasbeenflyingononeengine.Thetroubleis,asMr.Summershasalsowarned,thiscannotgoonforever.25

ThegreatdangeristhatsomecountriesaretoodependentonAmericanprosperityandthataslowdownorrecession—reflectingadeclineinthestockmarket,alossofconsumerconfidenceorhigherinterestrates—mightsnowballintoaninternationalslump.Text26

Byeconomicforecasts,EuropeandJapanaregoingtodobetter.In2000,theEuropeanUnion’sgrossdomesticproductwillgrow2.8percent,upfrom2.1percentin1999,accordingtoprojectionsbytheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentinParis.27

Japanisprojectedtogrow1.4percent,thesameastheOECDispredictingfor1999butabigimprovementfromthe2.8percentdropin1998.Iftheforecastsmaterialize—andtheOECD’sgrowthestimatesforJapanexceedmostprivateforecasts—theywillrestoresomebalancetotheworldeconomyandrelievefearsofaglobalrecession.Text28

AsiaandLatinAmericacancontinuetorecoverwithoutrelyingsolelyonexportstotheUnitedStates.Butuntilthathappens,noonecanbecertainthatAsia’sfinancialcrisishastrulyended.Itremainspossiblethatabruptsurgesofglobalcapital,firstmovingintoAsiaandthenout,willhavecaused,withsomedelay,alargerinstability.29Globalization’sotherproblemispolitical,culturalandsocial.Peoplefeelthreatenedbyanykindofeconomicchange—andchangefromabroadnaturallyseemsespeciallyalienandmenacing.Text30

ThestreetprotestersattheSeattlemeetingoftheWorldTradeOrganizationinearlyDecembermayhavelackedacommonagendaorevenacoherentcaseagainsttrade.Buttheyaccuratelyreflectedtheanxietyandangerthatglobalizationofteninspires.SodoEuropeanfearsofgeneticallymodifiedfoodornationalisticoppositiontocross-bordermergers.31

Whatislocalandfamiliarissuddenlybeingreplacedor,assaultedbysomethingthatisforeignandunfamiliar.Andeveniftradehelpsmostpeople,itwillusuallycreatesomelosers.IntheUnitedStates,workersinsomehigh-costindustries—steelandautos,mostconspicuously—sufferedfromintensifiedimportcompetition.Text32

Justbecauseglobalizationislargelyspontaneous—propelledbybettercommunicationsandtransportation—doesnotmeanthatitisinevitableorcompletelyirreversible.Governmentscan,insubtleandnot-so-subtleways,shieldlocalindustriesandworkersagainstimportsordiscriminateagainstforeigninvestors.Ifonlyafewcountriesdo,theiractionswillnotmattermuch.Globalcapitalandtradewillgowheretheyaremostwelcomeandproductive.Indeed,itispreciselythislogicthathaspersuadedsomanycountriestoacceptglobalization.Iftheydon’t,someoneelsewill.Judgedbytheirbehavior,mostgovernmentsbelievetheyhavemoretogainthantolose.Text33

Butthisdoesnotmeanthatapowerfulpopularbacklash,withunpredictableconsequences,isnotpossible.Inaglobalrecession,toomanysellerswillbechasingtoofewbuyers.Aplausiblepresumptionisthatpracticalpoliticianswouldtrytoprotecttheirconstituentsfromglobalgluts.Iftoomanycountriesdid,globalizationcouldimplode.34

It’sascaryprospect.Economicinterdependencecutsbothways.Underfavorableconditions,ithelpseveryone;underunfavorableconditions,ithurtseveryone:Globalization’spromisemayexceeditsperil—buttheperilisstillreal.Bothawaitthenewcentury.Oneofthegreatdramaswillbetoseewhichprevails.(1,634words)Text全球化力量的兩重性羅伯特·J.塞繆爾森1

在新世紀即將到來之際，全球化已成為一柄雙刃劍：一方面它對富國和窮國都是發(fā)展經(jīng)濟、傳播新技術(shù)、提高生活水平的有力手段；但另一方面，它又是一個極具爭議的進程，因為在這一過程中，它會侵犯國家主權(quán)，損害本土的文化傳統(tǒng)，并威脅經(jīng)濟和社會穩(wěn)定。2

在21世紀，究竟是各國能夠控制這個巨大的動蕩，還是這動蕩將會控制各國，這是一個令人畏懼的問題。Text3

在某些方面，全球化不過是描述過去一個老進程的時髦字眼。我們平時所說的市場其實就是把賣方和買方、生產(chǎn)者和消費者、儲蓄者和投資者聯(lián)系在一起。經(jīng)濟史很大程度上就是市場擴大的歷史，先由農(nóng)場擴大到城鎮(zhèn)，然后從地區(qū)擴大到全國，再從一個國家擴大到另一個國家。20世紀的經(jīng)濟大蕭條和兩次世界大戰(zhàn)減緩了市場發(fā)展的速度。但是二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以后，政治壓力和先進的技術(shù)使市場又加速發(fā)展起來。4

從20世紀40年代晚期到80年代，美國帶頭提倡貿(mào)易自由化和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。一連串重大的貿(mào)易協(xié)議使工業(yè)國家的平均關(guān)稅由1946年的大約40%，降低到1990年的大約5%。Text5

在經(jīng)歷了兩次世界大戰(zhàn)以后，歐洲人把經(jīng)濟一體化看成是對付激進民族主義的手段。技術(shù)給政治提供了有力的幫助。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)問世之前，噴氣式飛機、更高級的海底電纜和人造衛(wèi)星等技術(shù)不斷降低通訊和交通成本，這促進了全球貿(mào)易。到20世紀90年代早期，世界出口總額（扣除通貨膨脹因素后）幾乎比40年前高了10倍。6

全球化使這一過程得以繼續(xù)，但同時也至少在一個關(guān)鍵的方面背離了它。直到不久前，國家還被認為是獨立的經(jīng)濟實體，主要由貿(mào)易聯(lián)系在一起?，F(xiàn)在情況已經(jīng)不完全是這樣了。很多公司和金融市場做生產(chǎn)、銷售和投資決定時，正逐漸忽視國界。Text7

就在1990年，根據(jù)世界金融研究所（一個總部設(shè)在華盛頓的銀行業(yè)研究小組）的統(tǒng)計，由政府——不管是各自單獨行動，還是通過像世界銀行這樣的多邊機構(gòu)——向29個主要的發(fā)展中國家提供了一半的信貸和貸款（包括巴西、中國、印度、韓國和墨西哥）。8

但是10年以后，盡管亞洲經(jīng)歷了1997-1998年的金融危機，私人的資金流已使政府的資金流相形見絀。根據(jù)這家研究所的統(tǒng)計，1999年私人資金（包括銀行貸款、債券融資、在當(dāng)?shù)毓墒欣锏墓杀就顿Y以及跨國公司的直接投資）流向這29個國家的總額估計已達1,360億美元，而政府的資金流只有220億美元。Text9

與此同時，跨國公司在全球范圍內(nèi)掀起收購熱潮。僅以1999年上半年計，在發(fā)達國家和發(fā)展中國家的跨國兼并和收購，其價值已超過5,000億美元。10

根據(jù)聯(lián)合國的世界投資報告，這一總額大致與1998年全年的數(shù)額（5,440億美元）相當(dāng)，幾乎比1991年的水平（850億美元）高7倍。最近英國沃達豐AirTouch上市公司和德國曼尼斯公司兩大無線電巨頭之間圍繞收購接管的爭斗在規(guī)模和激烈程度上是前所未有的。Text11

兼并熱潮表明，公司經(jīng)營者越來越相信很多市場已經(jīng)真正實現(xiàn)了全球化。很多公司都想通過在盡可能多的國家里盡量擴大它們的影響來實現(xiàn)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟——也就是通過提高生產(chǎn)量和銷售額來降低成本——同時緊緊跟上如今幾乎無處不在的技術(shù)變革。12

與此同時，各公司也越來越多地在全球組織生產(chǎn)，把產(chǎn)品設(shè)計、零配件制造和最后組裝分散到很多國家進行。Text13

但是，推動全球化的并不只是追求更多銷量和更大利潤的跨國公司。各國政府也同樣如此。歐洲對“單一市場”堅持不懈的追求就是一個標(biāo)志。它反映了一個共識：如果歐洲公司在當(dāng)?shù)氐倪\營被各國的獨立市場嚴重阻礙的話，那它們在全球市場的競爭就會遇到巨大的壓力。14

在比較貧困的國家，支持全球化的最佳標(biāo)志就是強烈要求加入世貿(mào)組織。自1995年至今，已有7個國家加入：保加利亞、厄瓜多爾、愛沙尼亞、吉爾吉斯斯坦、拉脫維亞、蒙古和巴拿馬。目前還有32個國家正在申請成為成員國。人們相信，全球貿(mào)易與投資能通過提供新的產(chǎn)品、技術(shù)和經(jīng)營管理技能幫助本國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。Text15

這并非神話。一個國家成功與否，主要取決于本國的工人、投資和政府的政策。但是更大范圍地與國際經(jīng)濟接軌肯定會有好處。16

就以亞洲為例。盡管有過那次金融危機，但是飛速的貿(mào)易擴張和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展大大減少了極度貧困人口的數(shù)量。據(jù)世界銀行估計，從1987年到1998年，包括中國在內(nèi)的地區(qū)或國家中，每天平均收入少于1美元的人口比例已從27%降低到15%。17

與此同時，拉美和撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲——由于它們與國際經(jīng)濟接軌較晚，或程度有限——情況就遠不如亞洲。比如，據(jù)世界銀行統(tǒng)計，1998年，非洲46%的人口靠每天不到1美元的生活費生活，這情況與1987年完全相同。Text18

那么，既然全球化如此美妙，為什么它又充滿風(fēng)險呢？答案在于，有兩個問題可能會把潛在的好處都抵消掉。19

首先是經(jīng)濟的不穩(wěn)定。全球性經(jīng)濟與各國單一的經(jīng)濟相比，容易受到更加嚴重的繁榮—蕭條這個經(jīng)濟周期的影響。只有當(dāng)投資使用得當(dāng)，進出口貿(mào)易也沒有嚴重失衡時，國際貿(mào)易和投資會提高生活水平的理論才是對的。20

亞洲的金融危機正是在這兩方面都出了問題。20世紀90年代初，多數(shù)亞洲國家都經(jīng)濟繁榮，因為它們得到了大量外國資金，比如銀行貸款、對工廠或是本地公司的股票市場的直接投資。Text21

隨之而來的消費熱潮又通過增加進口，幫助歐洲、日本和美國發(fā)展經(jīng)濟。但到1997年年中，消費熱突然停止，因為情況越來越明顯，由于“裙帶資本主義”、不當(dāng)?shù)恼顿Y政策以及過度樂觀的情緒，大量的投資被浪費在無用的工廠、寫字樓和公寓上了。22

從某種程度上說，后來是美國驚人的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)才使這場亞洲危機沒有成為大規(guī)模的全球經(jīng)濟衰退。Text23

當(dāng)時美國經(jīng)濟的不停增長使它能夠通過購買更多的進口商品幫助世界上其他國家。從1996年起，美國外貿(mào)的往來賬目赤字——這是衡量一個國家國際貿(mào)易最全面的標(biāo)準——已經(jīng)翻了一番多，從1,290億美元增加到了1999年的3,300億美元。24

正如財政部部長勞倫斯·薩默斯多次所說，世界經(jīng)濟一直靠著單一引擎在飛速發(fā)展。但他也曾警告這種情況不可能永遠持續(xù)下去。25

現(xiàn)在巨大的危險是一些國家過分依賴美國的繁榮，以至于一旦美國經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)減速或衰退——反映在股市的下跌、消費者信心的喪失或利率的提高——就可能發(fā)展成為一次全球性的經(jīng)濟蕭條。Text26

從經(jīng)濟前景來看，歐洲和日本將會有所好轉(zhuǎn)。根據(jù)總部設(shè)在巴黎的經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織的預(yù)測，歐盟2000年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將增長2.8%，1999年增長了2.1%。27

日本預(yù)計將提高1.4%，與經(jīng)合組織對1999年的預(yù)測相同，但與1998年下降2.8%相比，是很大的進步。如果這些預(yù)計都成為現(xiàn)實——經(jīng)合組織對日本增長的估計超過了大多數(shù)私人的預(yù)測——它們就能使全球經(jīng)濟恢復(fù)某種平衡，同時解除人們對世界經(jīng)濟蕭條的擔(dān)心。Text28

亞洲和拉美的經(jīng)濟不用單純依靠對美國的出口也能繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇。但在這實現(xiàn)之前，沒有人能保證亞洲的金融危機已經(jīng)真正結(jié)束了。仍然存在這樣的可能性：全球資金突然猛增，涌入亞洲又撤出，最終將會造成更大的經(jīng)濟不穩(wěn)定，盡管效應(yīng)會有一段時期的延后。29

全球化還會帶來政治、文化和社會方面的問題。人們對任何經(jīng)濟變化都會感受到威脅——來自國外的變化自然會顯得格外陌生和嚇人。Text30

今年12月月初在西雅圖世貿(mào)會期間聚集街頭的抗議者們，也許并沒有共同綱領(lǐng)，也許連反對貿(mào)易的統(tǒng)一的理由都沒有。但是他們真真切切地反映了全球化經(jīng)常引起的焦慮和憤怒。歐洲人對轉(zhuǎn)基因食品的擔(dān)心和出于民族主義對跨國兼并的反對也是這種情緒的反映。31

大家熟悉的本地東西突然遭到外國那些不熟悉的東西的攻擊，或為它們所代替。此外，即便貿(mào)易對多數(shù)人有幫助，通常也會使一些人蒙受損失。在美國，一些高成本工業(yè)的工人們，尤其是鋼鐵工業(yè)和汽車工業(yè)，就深受激烈的進口競爭之苦。Text32

全球化在很大程度上是一個自發(fā)的過程，由更先進的通訊手段和交通工具推動著。但這并不意味著它是不可避免或不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的。各國政府可以用一些微妙或不那么微妙的辦法，保護本國工業(yè)和工人不受進口的傷害，或是排斥外國的投資者。如果只有少數(shù)幾個國家這么干，問題倒不大。全球資本和貿(mào)易會轉(zhuǎn)向它們最受歡迎，投資最有效果的地方。實際上，正是因為這個邏輯，那么多國家才會同意接受全球化。如果它們不接受，會有別的國家來接受。從它們的行動來看，大多數(shù)國家相信它們這么做得大于失。Text33

然而，這并不意味著民眾就不會對全球化表示強烈的反對，并導(dǎo)致難以預(yù)料的后果。在全球出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退時，眾多的賣家追逐太少的買主。這時，比較合理的假設(shè)是，那些講實際的政治家們會努力保護他們的選民免受國際上供過于求的傷害。假如這么做的國家太多了，那全球化就會崩潰。34

這是一個可怕的前景。經(jīng)濟的互相依賴既有好處，也有壞處。在條件有利的時候，它對每個人都有好處；條件不好的時候，它卻會傷害所有人。全球化可能帶來的好處也許超過它帶來的危險——但這危險的確存在。兩種可能都在等著這新的世紀。我們面臨的大戲中，有一場就是看這兩種可能性中哪一種能夠勝出。TextTextAnalysisAttheedgeofanewcentury,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword:apowerfulvehiclethatraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnologyandraiseslivingstandardsinrichandpoorcountriesalike;butalsoanimmenselycontroversialprocessthatassaultsnationalsovereignty,erodeslocalcultureandtraditionandthreatenseconomicandsocialinstability.Asthenewcenturyapproaches,globalizationmeanstwodifferentthings.Itcanhavebothnegativeandpositiveeffects.Ontheonehand,itcangreatlyincreaseeconomicproduction,spreadnewtechnologyandimprovethelivingstandardsinbothrichandpoorcountries;ontheotherhand,itishighlycontroversialbecauseitthreatensnationalsovereignty,destroyslocalcultureandtradition,andislikelytocauseeconomicandsocialinstability.TextAnalysisAttheedgeofanewcentury,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword:apowerfulvehiclethatraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnologyandraiseslivingstandardsinrichandpoorcountriesalike;butalsoanimmenselycontroversialprocessthatassaultsnationalsovereignty,erodeslocalcultureandtraditionandthreatenseconomicandsocialinstability.theedge:thepointjustbeforesth.verydifferentandnoticeablehappense.g.1)Itwasreportedintoday’spaperthatthecompanyisontheedgeofcollapse.2)Theoppositionleaderclaimedthatthegovernmenthadbroughtthecountrytotheedgeofacatastrophe.TextAnalysisAttheedgeofanewcentury,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword:apowerfulvehiclethatraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnologyandraiseslivingstandardsinrichandpoorcountriesalike;butalsoanimmenselycontroversialprocessthatassaultsnationalsovereignty,erodeslocalcultureandtraditionandthreatenseconomicandsocialinstability.