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11三月2024【管理類】證券投資學(xué)3QUESTIONSRAISEDHOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET,WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?HOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?
TheFinancialMarketsareDynamicBusinessis“Proactive”ButRegulatorsare“Reactive”not“ProactiveTheSystemofRegulationandEnforcementcanneverbecompletelyFlexibleandDynamicImportanceofFiduciaryResponsibilityFinancialInfrastructureMAINFACTORSFORFUNDSGovernmentFinancialPolicemenInstitutionalManagersCentredaroundPublicInvestorsPRIVATESECTORLawyersAccountantsInvestmentBankersStockBrokersCommercialBanksConflictofInterest?ConflictofInterestWhoistheclient?WhoaretheFinancialPolicemanResponsibleto?CanRegulationbeProtectwithFinancialPolicemenbeingProactive?INVESTORSInstitutionalPrivatePensionsInsuranceMutualFundsInvestors’Confidence
=
Investors’EducationConfidenceEducationInvestorsInvestorProtection/Confidence
Easierandmoreeffectiveenforcement.Increasedefficiencyreducescosts.Improvedflexibilityoftheinfrastructuretorespondeffectivelyandcompetitively.EfficientInfrastructure
Transparency
AccountabilityLeadsto:AChineseTailorMadeSolutionfortheChineseFundIndustryInvestors’behaviourStockInvestorsFundInvestorsSecuritiesDealersBrokersSecuritiesInvestmentAdvisorsFundManagersSecuritiesExchangeOTCFuturesExchangeSEC/CSRCCBC/PBC
WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?
ChineseQuotedStocksCorporateProfits???NASDAQCorporateProfits???Confidence$$$1995-2000C$IFCONFIDENCEISLOWTHENMONEYFLOWISMINUTECONFIDENCE$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$IFCONFIDENCEISHIGHTHENMONEYFLOWISLARGEWhatistheCriteriaForInvesting?1.Whatdoyouthinkisthemostimportantinfluenceonthestockmarketin
Chinatoday?Thehistoricbalancesheetsandprofitandlossaccountsofthequotedcompanies-6Thefutureprospectsforcorporateearnings-10Governmentpolicy-62Govt.investigationintomalpractices15TheoveralleconomicgrowthoftheChineseeconomy-27China'sentryintotheWTO-82.Howdoyouasaninvestoranalysethefairvalueofthecompaniesyoubuy&sell?Bypriceearningsratio-35Byrelationshiptonetassetvale-5Bythelatestrumour-58Bythebusinesssectorthecompanyisinvolvedin-21Bymultipleofsalesrevenue-93.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratiofornon-technologystocks?under15times-015to25times-18
above25-1104.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratio?under15times-015to25times-125to50-16over50-1115.Howdoyoumeasureinvestmentrisk?Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestock-31Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestockmarket-42Byestimatingtheaccuracyofdisclosedinformation-16Byestimatingtheriskoffraud-17Byanalysinghistoricreturns-13Bycomparingwithandadjustingfora"riskfree"measuresuchasadepositrate-8AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiAsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001?mostthinkitwillbeabove2500Todayitis2140AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiBsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001?mostthinkitwillbeabove200Todayitis183IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET,WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?FactorsEffectingInvestmentTimeHorizonsConfidenceinLongTermTrendsConfidenceinInformationDisclosureVolatilityofMarketsLiquidityofMarketsProfitForecastPublicScrutinyofPerformanceEACM100:EqualWeighted(RebalancedAnnually)IndexofHedgeFundIndicesdescribedonPreviousSlideChinaversusWesternMarketsLimitedsenseofAccountabilityLittleUnderstandingofRiskChineseBusin
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