Omdia-2024年及以后的全球科技預測（英）-2023

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Trends

toWatch

2024Click

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versionIntroductionOmdia’sTrends

toWatchseries

spansthetechnologyecosystem,

helpingyouconnectthedotsbetween

yourbusiness

andtrendsourexpertsbelieve

shouldbeprioritized

in2024.Despitethetempestuous

economiclandscapeof

2023,transformational

digitaltechnologies

havecontinuedontheirintendedcourseforprogress.In

preparationfor2024,

Omdiaanalystshaveproducedanoverviewoftheupcomingtrendssettoin?uencethetechnologyecosystem

thatareamust-knowforanyoneoperatingin

thedigital

world.Theexpandingfootprintandcommercializationof

AI

hasbroughtincredibleopportunityaswellasa

hostof

governanceandethicaldilemmas.NewsolutionsandservicespoweredbygenerativeAIwillput

asharperfocusoncostsandbene?ts.Welookforwardtoworkingwithyouandhelpingyoutoleverageopportunitiesin

yourmarket.Thebreadthofsolutionsavailableasa

servicecontinuestopushtheboundariesoftheimagination.

From

abstracto?eringslikesavingsasaservice,toextremelyhigh-valueproductssuchashigh-performancecomputingclusters,microgrids,

andentiredatacenters,

theincreasingcostofcapitalhasturnedXaaSintoatopenterprisegrowthstrategy.Overthepastseveral

yearstherehavebeenseveralglobalevents(thepandemic,variousgeopolitical

tensions)thatpromptedmanymanufacturerstoconcludethattheyhadpursuedcostwithoutadequatelyconsideringrisk.

Wearenowseeingapushin

severalindustriestoactivelylookatinitiativesthat

de-risk/balancetheirsupplychains,assessinglocationsfrom

Vietnam

toIndiatotheUS.BillMorelliChiefResearchO?cer

andResearchVicePresident,

EnterpriseITbill.morelli@Beyondjustsupplychainconsiderations,geopolitical

factorshavebecomeextremelyimportantin

shapingmarkets,from

demandshiftsduetothewarin

Ukraineandelevatedenergyandfoodcoststoembargoes

ontechnologytransfer.Click

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the

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versionAcceleration

of

AIuser

experienceTrend1:

Therise

of

declarativedata,

analytics,

andAIForgetthedemocratizationofdata.Theinnateabilityoflargelanguagemodels(LLMs)tounderstandlanguageincontexttogetherwiththeirabilitytofollow

instructions,

perform

high-levelreasoning,

andgeneratecode,willoverturntheenterprisedata,analytics,

and

AImarketplace.ProjectsthatendedwithbasicNLPtaskssuchasqueries,explanations,andthelikewillgivewaytobots,agents,

andin-appuserexperienceswhereuserssimplydeclaretheirintents,sitback,

andletAIconnectwiththeappropriatedata,

perform

anynecessarycalculations,andbuildtheappropriaterepresentationofthatdata.Thesetoolswillhelpelevatedataliteracyacrossthecompany

whilealsocuttingdown

onshadowITprojectsand?llingin

skillsgaps.NataliaModjeskaResearchDirector,AppliedIntelligencenatalia.modjeska@Trend2:

An

explosion

inmass

market

GenAI

chatbots

andturbo-chargedvoice

assistantsOpenAI’sfullycustomizableGenAI

GPTs(chatbots)

areopentoalland,unlikeMicrosoftCo-Pilot,

willnotimposesteepusage

fees,whichwillmake

GPTsverypopular,

particularlyamongconsumers.

Many

GPTswillbeuseful,funtools,butotherswillbepoorlyexecutedandcouldeluderesponsibleAIguardrails,

whichwillattracttheattentionofregulators.GenAIwillalsogivegeneralpurposevoiceassistants

a

much-neededshotin

thearm,withnewcapabilitiesincludingmultimodeoutputs.AlongsideGoogle’sintegrationof

Bard(itsGenAIchatbot)

withGoogleAssistant,

weexpectAmazontouseitsinvestmentin

Anthropic(developerofClaude)tosuperchargeAlexaandforAppletounveilitsownversionof

ChatGPT,whichwillbene?tSiri.Click

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versionMaximizinginvestment

remainsat

the

top

of

theenterprise

agendaTrend1:

Thecommercialization

of

AI

isreshapingdatacenter

computingand

designsThefearofmissingawave

of

marketopportunityfueledbytherapidadoptionof

ChatGPTis

drivinginvestmentinAItraininginfrastructure,from

serverscon?guredwithhighlyperformant,power-hungry

co-processorstohigh-speednetworksandstorage.

BuildingandpoweringadatacenteroptimizedforAItrainingmeanshigherrackdensities,enabledbynewcoolingstrategiesanddesignprinciples.Commercializinglarge-scalegenerativeAI

applicationsthenrequiresa

highlyoptimizedanddistributedarmy

ofserverswithco-processorsoptimizedforlow-costcomputing.BillMorelliChiefResearchO?cer

andResearchVicePresident,

EnterpriseITbill.morelli@Trend2:

Risingcapital

costs

fuel

anewwave

of

everythingas

aservice(XaaS)

anddrive?nancial

operations

(FinOps)cultureFormoreenterpriseITtrends,visit:Thebreadthofsolutionsavailableasa

servicecontinuestopushtheboundariesoftheimagination.

From

abstracto?eringslikesavingsasaservice,toextremelyhigh-valueproductssuchashigh-performancecomputingclusters,microgrids,

andentiredata,theincreasingcostofcapitalhasturnedXaaSintoa

topenterprisegrowthstrategy.Sometelecom

giantshavemade

signi?cantstridestomovetheirentirevirtualnetworktothecloud,

optingtorunitasa

service,and

we

nowexpectmany

moretofollow

suit.

ThegrowthofXaaSwillcontinuetofueltheFinOpsmovementasmanaging

costsandmaximizingthevalueofinvestedcapitalremainsatthetopoftheenterpriseagenda.ITOperationsTrendstoWatchSystemsIntegration&Application

ServicesTrendstoWatchClick

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versionOrganizations

becomeadept

at

identifying“good

enough”securityTrend1:

Therise

of

“goodenough”

securityAsthecybersecuritydisciplineslowlymaturestobecome

more

ofacoordinationandcontextualizationdiscipline,organizationsarebecomingmore

adept

andprecisein

identifyingwhattheyconsidertobe“goodenough”security.Thisis

themostcost-e?ectiveapproachtopeople,processes,andtechnologythatensuresadequate,

orindeedbetter,security.Decisionsoncybersecurityinvestmentsarescenariodriven,witha

costandriskequation,

formultipledecisionmakerstodeterminewhichscenariotoaccept.MaxineHoltSeniorResearchDirector,Cybersecuritymaxine.holt@Trend2:

Balancingthe

scales

of

riskCybersecurityincreasinglya?ectsandis

closelytiedintoanorganization’sriskpro?leandriskposture.Identifying,quantifying,andmanagingthatrisk,onanindividual

andorganizationallevel,

is

a

top-tierpriority.Thishasimplicationsforsecurityexecutivesbecausetheyneedtobecome

moreattunedtoorganizational

designandcoordinationchallengesbeyond“just”understandingthecybersecuritytechnicaldomain.

Withprominentrolesin

theworldofcybersecurity

facingcharges,thestakes

arebeingraisedtoa

wholenewlevel.Formorecybersecuritytrends,visit:EnterpriseSecurityManagement

TrendstoWatchEnterpriseCybersecurity

Operations(SecOps)

TrendstoWatchInfrastructureSecurityTrends

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accessibility

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versionSemiconductormarket

returns

togrowth

as

AI

set

topower

demandThesemiconductorindustryis

?nallyexperiencinggradual

growthaftersixconsecutivequartersof

decline.While2023

hasbeenstagnantfortheindustry,thegrowthof

AI

hasincreaseddemand

andindependentlyhelpedreversemarketdecline.

Supplychaininventoryhasslowlyimprovedafterexcessinventoryissues,andalthoughtheindustryis

stillwaitingformeaningfuldemandnormalization,itremainsresilientanddrivingforwardwithstronger

growthonthehorizonfor2024.Trend1:

Semiconductor

fabutilization

tonormalizeTheindustryhas

gonethrougha

fullcycleof

volatility,andfor2024

welookforwardtofabutilizationsettlingbackdowntoa

moremanageablerate.We

docautionthatwithincreasedsustainedcapexfrom

self-reliance/su?ciencye?orts,

theindustrywilleventuallyfacea

challengedenvironmentin

whichutilizationwilldipbelowpro?tability.Michael

YangSeniorResearchDirector,Semiconductorsmichael.yang@Trend2:

AI

will

continuetopower

semiconductor

demandwhether

it

will

be

thecloudor

theedgeLeadingmicroprocessorsuppliersInteland

AMDarereadyingtolaunchAI-optimizedMPUsforeverydaylaptopsanddesktops.Wewillseethecompetitivelandscapeshiftbeyondthecloudandseenewapplicationsandusagestakingadvantageofnewcapabilities.Click

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versionConsumer

electronicscompanies

diversifystrategies

foradvertising

and

datarevenueTrend1:

Advertising

anddata

revenues

more

importantthanhardwarepro?ts

in

North

AmericaTheyear2023

hasproveda

successfuloneforRokuandViziofollowingtheirstrategicdecisiontosellTVhardwareat

cost.Theyhavenowenteredthegame

ofacquiringamonetizableaudienceusingtheirhardwaretoearnrevenuesin

advertisinganddata.Otherbrandsandplatformsareshiftingtheirstrategiesandfollowingsuit,whichhasreversedthegentleconsolidationofthismarket.However,thisbusinessmodelisnotuniversal.

AccordingtoOmdia’sAdvertisingIntelligenceService,

itis

clearthatonlya

few

othercountries(UK,Germany,Brazil,

Mexico,SouthKorea,Japan,

Australia)haveimmediateprospects.Thewidevarietyofnational

tastesandmedianorms

meanthatthisbusinessmodelwillneedsigni?cantlocalizationeachtime.However,

hugemarketssuchasChinado

notfeatureatallbecauseTVadvertisingrevenuesareverylow.Paul

GrayResearchDirector,Consumer

Electronicspaul.gray@Trend2:

Postpandemic

demand

isvery

di?erent

by

regionNorthAmericahasalreadyreturnedtoaboveprepandemiclevelsformost

consumerelectronicscategories.Althoughemergingregionsarerecoveringslowly,LatinAmerica&

theCaribbeanandMiddleEast&

AfricaareaboveprepandemiclevelsonkeyproductssuchasTVsets.Chinaisfarbelowprepandemiclevels,

partofa

widerlossof

consumercon?dence.Click

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versionDisplay

area

demandsurges

ahead

withOLED

leading

thecharge

in

revenuesTrend1:

Displayarea

demand

continues

growthtrajectoryDisplayareademandisexpectedtogrowby

7%

YoYin

2024,thehighestgrowthratesincetheCOVID-19era,drivenbythelargersize-TVandadvanceddisplaytechnologies.Trend2:

OLED

to

dominatetotal

display

revenues

in2024OLEDis

expectedtotakemorethan40%

ofthetotaldisplayrevenuesin2024,thankstothestronggrowthin?exibledisplay,smart

handhelddevices,and

PCdisplays.

Signsindicatethishasbeenstimulatedthankstotheboomin

AI

andnewapplicationssuchasautomotiveandnear-eyeheadmountdevices.DavidHsiehSeniorDirector,Displaysdavid.hsieh@Click

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versionAdvertising

and

AI

willdrive

major

shifts

inmedia

andentertainmentTrend1:

Advertising

will

accelerateapay-to-free

trendinTVandvideoFollowinga

decadeof

cord-cuttingwithpay-TVsubscriberschurningtopaid-foronlinevideoservices,

2024willseea

newstageof

marketevolutionasusersof

paidonlinevideoincreasinglyembracefreeonlinevideo.Critically,theriseofad-supportedserviceswillaccelerateasmajorUSmediagroups?nallyrelegatetraditionalTVchannelstolegacybusinessstatus.RobGallagherResearchVicePresident,

Media&

Entertainmentrob.gallagher@Trend2:

Clarityon

arti?cial

intelligencewill

bring

mediasector

rewardsFortrendstowatchacrossthemediaandentertainmentlandscape,

visit:AVOD,

FASTandtheNew

TVTrendstoWatchAlthoughAI

haslonghadanin?uenceonvariousmediaandentertainmentsectors,

itsimpactin

2024willbecome

moresigni?cant.

Aswithmosttechnologicalinnovations,AIwillprovokea

mixofanxietyalongsideopportunitiesforprogress,but

morewidelyanddeeplyacrosstheentirevaluechain,

from

contentproducerstoserviceproviderstotechnologyvendors.DigitalContent&Channels

TrendstoWatchAddressableConsumer

Devices

TrendstoWatchClick

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versionWorldwide

push

forsustainability

gainsmomentumTrend1:

Connecting

productivityandsustainabilitythrough

manufacturingtechnologybeing.Weestimatethatthebuildingmanagement

platformsmarket

waswortharound$5billionin

2023,withthe“EnergyManagement”categoryhavingthehighestgrowthpotential.Asautomationvendorsandmanufacturingcompaniesexitthepost-COVID-19boomthathasoverin?atedorderbooks,

theyfacea

challengingoutlook,particularlyforthestartof

2024.

Theindustryis

facinga

toughsixmonths.

Morethanever,thereis

a

needtoutilizetechnologytoimprovemanufacturinginsights(connectingsystemsandprovidingbetterdataaccess),e?ciency,

productivity,andsustainabilitywhileatthesametimeevolvingworkforcesfrom

repetitivemanualtaskstowardmoreautonomousprocesses.

AsITand

OTworldscontinuetointegrate,andwithsubduedcustomerdemand,

continuinghighin?ation,

risingenergycostsanda

changingmanufacturingworkforce,

theadoptionofITtechnologyin

OTenvironmentstogetherwithnewasa

serviceo?eringsiskeytocompetitiveadvantage.Mark

WatsonSeniorDirector,Government&

Manufacturingmark.watson@Trend2:

Asset-and-people

centric

applications

toachievesustainabilitygoalsEnergyandsustainabilityareconsideredthemost

importantfactorsin

theoperationof

smartbuildings.

Increasinglythereisa

mandatedrequirement(byregion,

equipment,andbuildingtype)

togatherdatarelatedtobuildingenergyconsumptionandcarbonemissions.

Asa

result,a

betterunderstandingofoverallbuildingperformancewillsupportclimatechangeaction,allow

bettermanagement

andmaintenance,andoptimizeresourceconsumption.

Turningsensordataintoreal-timeactionableinformationviaanalyticsandscalableplatformsis

thekeytodrivingbuildinge?ciency,reducingcosts,andimprovingoccupantwell-Click

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versionAI

and

IoTconvergence

begins

inearnestTrend1:

AI

andIoT

convergencebegins

inearnestAnexponentialleapforwardin

AIdevelopments,combinedwiththerealizationofhyperscaleIoT,meanthatweareonthecuspofthetrueconvergenceof

AI

andIoT.Thetechnologiescanworktogethertoproviderealadvantagesacrossmultipleindustrysectors,

withAIoTo?eringthepotentialtocreateenormous

valueforbothAI

andIoTindustries.AI

canprovidetheintelligenceanddecision-makingcapabilitiesthatareessentialformakingsenseof

thevastamounts

of

datathatIoTdevicesgenerate,allowingfortrueautomationofpreviouslymanualprocesses,

whileIoTpricesthereal-worldcontext

andfeedbackthatAI

needstomakeaccurateandtimelydecisions.wouldbesuitableforresource-constrained

IoTdevices,particularlythoseusingLPWAN.Automotiveandthegrowthofthesoftware-de?nedvehicle(SDV),emergedasthe?rstIoTverticaltoembraceeSIM

+

eUICC.Asin

theconsumermarket,carownerscanchoosefromseveralCSPpro?les,allowingtheusertotakeadvantageof

optionssuchassharingdataacrossdevices.Healthcaredevices,suchasCPAPmachines,

willalsobeearlyadopters

ofeUICCtoreducefrictionfrom

roamingifa

patient

is

traveling.Thecommercializationandadoptionof

AI

andIoTwillhappenin

threephases,witheachphasebringingsigni?cantlyimprovedcapabilitiesanduserexperience.Trend2:

eSIMs

provide

?exibilityandchoiceEmbeddedSIMs,oreSIMs,

havebeenimportantinIoTasa

more

compactform

factorwihtgreatersecurity.eUICC,thesoftwarecomponentthatallowstheremoteeSIMprovisioningofmultiplenetworkpro?les,hasseenmuchsloweradoptionforseveralreasons:Andy

BrownCSPshavebeenreluctanttoembraceeUICCtechnologybecauseitallowsformultipleCSPpro?lestobestoredontheSIM

andthuspreventsvendorlock-in.PracticeLead,IoTandy.brown@TheGSMAis

stillworkingonstandardsforaneSIM

forM2M/IoT,

whichClick

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versionSoftware-de?nedvehicle

to

transformthe

auto

industryTrend1:

Electri?cationvehiclesincorporatingpowerful

next-generationprocessorsandloadsofsoftwareforthem

torun.Thisnearlytotal

reinventionoftheautomobilerequiresout-of-the-boxthinkingabout

notonlyhowcarsareengineeredandbuiltbutalsothenewbusinessmodelsthat

couldresult.Italsoiscompellingbigshiftsintheentireautomotiveecosystemasautomakersandsuppliersscrambletoacquiretheskillsneededtosupportthisnewsoftware-poweredmobilitybusiness.Despiterecentmarketslowdowns,

thetrendtowardelectri?cationin

theautoindustryis

undeniable.

Morethan480newbattery-electricvehiclesareexpectedtocometoglobalmarketsoverthenext?veyearsalone.Andeventhoughinternal-combustion-engine

carsandtruckswillcontinuetomake

upthemajorityofnewvehiclesproducedthroughtheendofthedecade,many

ofthosewillbehybridorplug-inhybridmodelsthatalsoleanheavilyonelectri?cation.Theshifttoelectrifythe?eetpromptedin

largepartbypolicymakersaroundtheworldis

causingmajordisruptionsin

thesupplychain,asautomakersscrambletosecurequantitiesofkeycomponents

suchasbatteries,inverters,electricmotors,andthesiliconchipsthat

willbeneededtopower

them.Themarketupheavalis

requiringindustryplayerstorevisetheirproductportfolios,revampcapacity,retrainandretooltheirworkforces,

anddevelop?exiblestrategiesthatconsidertheinevitableups

and

downs

ofthisdramatictransformation.Trend2:

Thesoftware-de?ned

vehicleDaveZoiaThere’snobigger,tougher,

andpotentiallypro?tabletaskaheadoftheautoindustrythanthedevelopmentofthesoftware-de?ned

vehicle.Thevisioncallsfornewcarsandtruckstobecompletelyupdatable,allowingforthelatestsoftware-drivenfeaturesandcapabilitiestobedownloadedovertheairthroughoutthelifeofthevehicle.Itis

seenopeningupnewrevenuepathsforindustryplayersthatcouldreachintothetensofbillionsofdollarsannuallyforsome.Torealizethat

vision,automakersmust

makethejumptocompletelynewelectronicarchitectures

fortheirSeniorDirector,Automotivedave.zoia@Click

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version6G

race

o?ciallybegins

in

2024Trend1:

2024

will

mark

thestart

of

the

6G

raceandcounter-raceTheyear2024

marks

theo?cialstartof

the6GraceasITU’sWRC-23(WorldRadioConference)

willidentifythespectrumfrequencybandstodedicatetothe6Gnetworkdeployments.Academia,

telecom

vendors,andtelecom

serviceprovidershavealreadystartedexamining6Gtechnologies.However,

2024

willbeanimportantyear

of

worktowardstandardizationandsubsequent

commercialintroduction,whichOmdiaexpectsin

2028to2030.Dari