2024年全球醫(yī)療趨勢(shì)調(diào)查（英）

2024GlobalMedical

TrendsExecutive

summaryNear

double-digitglobal

medicalcostsprojected

in2024despitedecline

from

2023highscostsduetoanincreasedneedforcareandreducedThecostofmedicalcaregloballyreachedahistorichighin2023,withthemedicaltrendrateclimbingintothedoubledigitsfor

thefirsttime.However,

theWTW

2024

GlobalMedicalTrendsSurveyrevealsanear-termimprovementintrendwhilelonger-termchallengespersist.availabilityof

providers.Thegrowthinmedicalcostsisprojectedtodeclineorremainunchangedinmostregionsin20

24

(Figure1).HealthcareinsurersparticipatinginoursurveyexpectthesharpestdecreasetooccurinEurope,wheremedicaltrendisprojectedtodropfrom10.9%in20

23

to9.3%

in20

24,

thelowestrateof

increaseprojectedinanyregion.Whilethisdeclineisencouraging,Europehastraditionallyseenmuchlowerlevelsof

trend.ThestubbornlyhighmedicaltrendinEuropecanbeattributedprimarilytohigherhealthcarecostincreasesincountriesinEasternEuropeandinTurkey

(Figure2).Aftersurgingfrom7.4%

in20

22toahighof

10.7%

in20

23,themedicalcosttrendfor20

24

isprojectedtodecreasetoaglobalaverageof

9.9%.Severalfactorsarecontributingtothisdecline.Thespikeinelectiveprocedures,consultationsandothermedicalcareresultingfromdelayedorpostponedcareduetothepandemicisstartingtoease.Inaddition,globalinflation,whichwasasignificantfactorindrivinguphealthcarecosts,isexpectedtocontinuetofallin20

24.Survey

findingsreveals

anear-termimprovementintrendwhilelonger-termchallengespersistButwhilemedicaltrendisprojectedtodecline,itremainselevated.Thehighcostof

newmedicaltechnologiesisakey

reasonforpersistentlyhightrend.Furthermore,insomeregions,ongoinggeopoliticalconflictsandresultingdisplacedpopulationshavenegativelyaffectedmedicalFigure1.

Global

medical

trend

2022

–

2024,

globally

and

byregionGrossNet**2022202320242022–0.320232024(projected)(projected)Global?LatinAmerica?7.41

0.71

2.49.95.26.36.57.91

0.51

1

.62.7NorthAmericaAsiaPacific8.07.29.89.99.49.90.52.25.65.67.17.0EuropeMiddleEastandAfrica6.79.81

0.91

1

.39.31

2.1–2.42.65.04.25.96.8?GlobalandLatinAmericanumbersexcludeArgentinaandVenezuela**Netof

generalinflation2/GlobalMedicalTrendsSurveyReport20

24The

growth

inmedical

trend

in

Latin

America

is

expectedtodecreasefrom12.4%

to

11.6%,

while

in

Asia

Pacific

the

trendrate

isprojectedto

remainunchangedat

9.9%.

InNorthAmerica,it

isanticipatedthat

medicaltrend

willdropfrom9.8%

to9.4%,duein

largepart

toabating

inflation.

At

thesame

time,

intheMiddle

East

andAfrica,insurers

expecttrend

to

increase

slightlyfrom11.3%

to

12.1%.Medical

costs

are

expected

to

rise

over

thelonger

termWhilethegrowthinmedicaltrendisprojectedtoslowgloballyin20

24,

insurersexpectcoststoresumetheirascentover

thelongerterm.Overhalf

of

insurers(58%)anticipatehigherorsignificantlyhighermedicaltrendover

thenextthreeyears.Eighty-fourpercentof

insurersintheMiddleEastandAfricaexpecthigherorsignificantlyhigherhealthcarecostincreasesduringthistimeperiodasdoover

half

of

insurersinEurope(57%)

andAsiaPacific(59%);however,

intheAmericas,lessthanhalf

of

insurers(45%)

anticipatethislevelof

costincrease.58%of

insurersanticipatehigherorsignificantlyhighermedicaltrendover

thenextthreeyearsGlobalMedicalTrendsSurveyReport20

24/3Key

findingsOursurveyuncoversthekey

factorsinfluencingmedicaltrendratesandopportunitiestocontrolcosts?

More

insurers

cite

musculoskeletal

disorders

as

a

topcondition

by

incidence.

Mental

health

ranks

amongthe

fastest-growing

conditions

by

incidence

and

costs.Musculoskeletaldisordersremainthetopconditionbyincidenceof

claims,followedbycardiovasculardiseaseandcancer.

Thepercentageof

insurersrankingmusculoskeletaldisordersasatopconditioninthiscategoryincreasedfrom46%

in20

22to57%

in20

23.Thesedisordersareassociatedwithissuesrangingfromcarpaltunnelsyndrometochronicneck,shoulderandbackpain.Poorergonomicsinemployees’homeworkenvironmentsandasedentarylifestylearekey

factorscontributingtomusculoskeletaldisorders.isparticularlythecaseinAsiaPacificwhererapiddevelopmentof

medicaltechnologieshasoccurredinanefforttocatchupwithotherregions.Additionally,

insurers

continuetobeconcernedaboutoveruse

of

care

duetoproviders

recommending

toomanyservices,

whichistheleading

factor

drivingupmedicalcostsperperson.

Thiscommonlyoccurs

where

systemsare

overburdened

andproviders

have

limitedtimetospendwithpatients.Asa

result,

members

are

directed

toinappropriate

treatment,

bypassing

preventive

care

steps,resulting

ininefficient

useof

thehealthcare

plan.Butthereisprogresstoreportonthisfront.TheEmployeesalsocontinuetostrugglewithmentalhealthissues,includinganxietyanddepression,whichcanaffectoverallemployeewellbeingandproductivity.Mentalandbehavioralhealthdisordersareexpectedtoremainamongthetopfivefastest-growingconditionsbybothcostandclaimsoverthenext18months.IntheAmericas,mentalhealthisthetopconditionbyincidenceof

claims.Additionally,mentalandbehavioralhealthdisordersrankamongthetopfiveconditionsbycostinallregionsexceptinAsiaPacificandintheMiddleEastandAfrica,wheresocioculturalstigmasaroundmentalhealthmaystillexistandcoverageexclusionsmaybeinplace.percentageof

insurersthatregardoveruseof

careasasignificantcostdriverdeclinedfromthree-quarters(74%)

in20

22to59%in20

23.

Thisdeclinemaybeduetotheeasingof

thesurgeincarefollowingtheCOVID-19shutdown,whichlikelycontributedtooveruseof

care.?

Exclusions

and

other

variations

in

healthcareprograms

thwart

the

impact

of

wellbeing

and

DEIinitiatives.

InregionssuchasAsiaPacificandtheMiddleEastandAfrica,manyorganizations’medicalinsuranceprogramscontinuetoexcludecoveragefortreatmentof

certainconditionsforwhichtreatmentsexistanddespitearecognizedneedforcareamongtheinsuredpopulation.Theseexclusions—whichincludedrugandalcoholabusetreatments,HIV/AIDSmedications,fertilitytreatmentsandgender-affirmingcare—cansignificantlyaffectemployeewellbeinganddiversity,

equityandinclusion(DEI)efforts.Insurersareincreasinglyinterestedinexpandingeligibilityintheseprogramstobemoreinclusive,butlegalormajorsocioculturalconsiderationsinsomecountriesposebarrierstochange.Cancer

remainsthetop

conditionaffectingcostsgloballyand

acrossall

regions.

Moreover,canceris

projected

tobe

the

fastest-growing

condition

globally

bycostandthe

second-fastest-growing

conditionbyincidence

inthe

next

18months.

Thisis

likely

duein

part

to

delayedaccessto

or

avoidance

of

care

duringthe

pandemic.Missedscreenings

canlead

tocancer

beingdiagnosedat

laterstages,resulting

inhigher

costs.

Furthermore,in

many

regions,

including

Europe,cancerclaimsarebecoming

more

prevalent

and

more

expensive

dueto

thehigh

cost

ofmedicationsand

new

technology.Publichealthcaresystemsinotherregionshaveembeddedinclusionandwidespreadprogrameligibilityintheirscopeof

coverage;however,

incountrieswithpublicsystemswherequalityof

andaccesstocarehavedeteriorated,coveragegapsexist,andprivateinsurershave

notyetcaughtuptotheseneeds.?

New

medical

technologies

and

overuse

of

care

drivehealthcare

spend.

Theuseof

newmedicaltechnologiesrangingfromartificialintelligence-powereddiagnostictoolstogenetherapyremainstheleadingexternalfactorcontributingtoincreasedmedicalcosts.This4/GlobalMedicalTrendsSurveyReport20

24Furthermore,manyinsurersincludewellbeingservicesasfree“value-adds”tohealthcareprograms.Thiscanresultinemployershavingmultipleandduplicativebenefits,whichcreatesconfusionastowhatwellbeingsupportisavailable.Often,employersforgetthatthesebenefitsareinplaceortheydonotcommunicatethemtoemployees,resultinginlittletonoprogramutilization.?

Telehealth

offerings

continue

to

be

a

priority

forinsurers.

In20

23,

40%

of

insuranceorganizationsgloballyaddedtelehealthservices,makingthisoneof

thetopcoveragechangesinsurersaremakingtotheirmedicalportfolios.Telehealthhasredefinedandimprovedhealthcaredeliverybyprovidingspeedyandefficientaccesstoarangeof

medicalservices,includingprimarycareandspecialistcare,prescriptiondrugs,mentalandbehavioralhealthprograms,andcarenavigationsupportforacuteillnesses.Additionally,insurersrecognizethattelehealthprovidesopportunitiestomanagehealthcarecostsmoreeffectively.Telehealthandvirtualcarehelpreducetheneedforcostly?

Weakened

public

healthcare

systems

put

morepressure

on

private

insurers

and

providers.

Thedeclineinthequalityandfundingof

publichealthcaresystemshasincreasedasatopdriverof

privatemedicalcosts,from27%

in20

22to34%in20

23.

Publichealthcaresystemsarefacingmajorchallengesduetogeopoliticalconflicts,inflationandrisksof

aglobalrecession.Moreover,

manyof

thesesystemsfaceabacklogofscheduledproceduresthatresultedfromtheCOVID-19pandemic.At

thesametime,thenumberof

medicalpractitionersandstaffinsocialhealthcaresystemshasreportedlydeclinedinmanylocalmarkets,contributingtolengthywaittimes.emergencyroomvisitsandprovidecost-efficientaccesstospecialists,especiallyintheareaof

mentalhealth.Whiletheuseof

telehealthgloballycontinuestorise,thereisconsiderablevariationacrossregionsinthemedicalservicesdeliveredthroughtelehealth.Memberpreferencesalsovary.

Insomecountries,membersareutilizinghealthcaremorethaneverduetotheaccessibilitythatvirtualcareaffords.Inothers,thereisanotedmemberpreferenceforin-personcare.ButourGlobalBenefitsAttitudeSurveyshowsthatemployeesgloballyviewvirtualconsultationsfavorablyincomparisontoin-personconsultations.Consequently,thedemandforprivatehealthcaretobridgethegapswithinpublicsystemsishigherthanever.

To

fulfillthisdemand,privateinsurersarecontinuingtocontractwithlocalnetworksof

providersandfacilities.Theprevalenceof

contractingwithnetworkshasincreasedfrom20

22,

reflectingthegrowingneedtoprovidehealthcareatcompetitiverates.GlobalMedicalTrendsSurveyReport20

24/5Gainacompetitiveadvantage

throughyour

healthcarebenefitsGlobalmedicaltrendisexpectedtodecreasein20

24

butremainselevatedinthedoubledigits.Moreover,

themajorityofinsurersanticipatehigherorsignificantlyhigherhealthcarecostincreasesoverthenext

three

years.Thissituationpromptsa

calltoactionfor

employerstomitigatecostswherepossible.Whilerecognizingthatsomefactorsinfluencingcostsmaybeoutof

theircontrol,employerscanfocusonactionstodriveeffectivenessof

healthcareprogramsandcontinuetoputtheemployeeexperiencefirst.?

Conduct

a

program

review

toanalyzeif

coverageistherightfit,identifyingpotentialgapsinprogramsandopportunitiestomitigaterisks.?

Review

policy

utilization

usingdataandpredictiveanalyticstounderstandhealthrisksandkey

driversofpolicyusagetomakedata-drivendecisions.?

Optimize

communications

sothatemployeesunderstandwhat’savailable,whenandhowtousewhatcoverage,andwhyit’s

valuabletothem.?

Boost

preventive

healthcare

byofferingscreeningsandotherproactivepreventionservices,includingdigital-andtechnology-basedsolutions.?

Prioritize

wellbeing

byformulatingacorporateglobalwellbeingstrategyandensuringwellbeingbenefitsareaccessibletoallemployeesandtheirfamilies.Byunderstandingthefactorsaffectinghealthcare,employerscandevelopstrategiestobuildresilienceandcombattheever-presentthreatof

risingcosts.Figure2.

Global

medical

trends,

bymarketGrossNet**20

23Inflationrates(FromIMFWorldEconomicOutlook)20

2220

2320

2420

2220

2420

2220

2320

24WeightedGlobal?LatinAmerica?NorthAmerica7.441

0.518.001

0.721

2.409.839.861

1

.649.41–0.282.680.495.206.285.566.467.907.077.917.977.515.536.1

24.273.453.762.34AsiaPacificEurope7.1

86.689.911

0.919.909.312.1

5–2.405.565.006.975.935.008.834.345.572.923.27MiddleEast/Africa9.841

1

.301

2.082.604.206.859.408.836.63By

marketLatin

AmericaArgentinaBrazil92.001

8.521

.001

35.001

6.317.509.561

2.009.5025.0035.001

5.001

0.046.501

1

.631

0.8027.7590.001

6.624.001

9.579.2436.411

1

.29–0.38–1

.306.8129.851

1

.82–0.044.666.441

1

.967.9121

.969.728.411

.501

0.767.9872.439.2898.595.0360.1

54.794.045.443.561

.542.1

05.545.283.895.002.242.431

99.98Chile–1

0.65–1

.575.737.532.801

3.1

20.910.761

1

.651

0.1

88.283.477.206.899.097.901

0.452.867.881

0.855.1

92.474.1

27.406.946.278.53ColombiaCostaRicaEcuadorElSalvadorGuatemalaHondurasMexicoNicaraguaPanamaPeruVenezuelaNorth

AmericaCanadaUnitedStatesAsia

PacificAustraliaChina8.621

0.1

01

0.001

3.501

0.0027.501

5.001

2.306.501

4.001

1

.001

0.0020.001

0.008.666.501

1

.878.757.0420.8827.608.063.77–2.039.39–3.959.010.881

3.001

0.401

7.252.245.69399.985.1

1–372.237.87200.9126.75–1

74.1

6–1

82.739.856.791

2.358.1

71

0.1

38.943.05–1

.208.453.657.746.636.807.993.904.522.392.324.1

77.389.377.508.279.389.538.35–2.455.505.653.844.025.525.974.446.346.1

65.966.076.621

.881

.886.675.351

.992.304.953.202.1

92.404.43HongKongIndia7.531

0.518.361

0.50IndonesiaMalaysia1

0.001

0.993.001

5.508.449.005.758.305.401

1

.501

2.071

2.501

3.671

0.331

0.675.751

2.741

3.368.501

3.941

0.671

1

.676.255.797.61–4.1

79.682.323.912.802.222.217.1

29.1

87.057.334.547.1

23.837.825.299.711

0.305.861

0.717.1

99.374.607.297.0

84.213.387.1

75.826.1

25.092.956.083.194.382.895.456.345.803.541

.922.844.963.033.062.653.243.482.301

.651

.974.25NewZealandPhilippinesSingaporeSouthKoreaTaiwanThailandVietnam1

0.6710.259.2711.33?GlobalandLatinAmericanumbersexcludeArgentinaandVenezuela.**Netof

generalinflation.GlobalMedicalTrendsSurveyReport20

24/7Figure2.

Global

medical

trends,

bymarketGrossNet**20

23Inflationrates(FromIMFWorldEconomicOutlook)20

2220

2320

2420

2220

2420

2220

2320

24EuropeBelgiumCyprusDenmarkFinland4.210.001

.503.005.988.001

0.507.004.502.007.505.50–6.1

2–8.08–7.03–4.1

71

.304.1

05.701

.712.37–0.474.701

0.338.088.537.1

74.683.904.805.302.1

42.472.802.463.04FranceGermany3.384.305.485.657.465.95–2.52–4.370.44–0.545.002.875.908.675.056.1

92.463.08GreeceHungaryIreland5.751

8.507.006.002.508.7722.338.508.004.289.401

5.006.006.752.00–3.553.974.784.683.503.551

.644.796.1

00.508.787.242.313.301

2.1

85.7651

.676.1

66.529.622.804.1

8–1

.1

33.236.709.949.551

4.499.1

74.471

3.666.6454.338.229.301

4.538.078.748.1

53.991

7.655.004.452.642.885.383.202.573.1

34.1

72.806.063.055.805.333.1

52.341

.6035.1

72.98–1

.07–2.74–5.65–7.531

.24–1

.330.776.06–0.32–2.400.440.771

3.690.27ItalyLuxembourgNetherlandsNorway4.1

07.008.657.409.501

1

.635.761

4.368.1

01

3.801

1

.988.328.062.8472.319.073.864.901

1

.001

2.401

4.501

7.711

4.507.601

9.008.201

02.251

3.00Poland1

3.038.881

9.861

1

.675.938.503.6086.009.331

6.001

2.6020.291

4.507.631

6.008.2389.501

1

.201

1

.905.721

0.481

2.204.306.822.4550.586.84PortugalRomaniaSerbiaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnitedKingdomMiddle

East/AfricaCameroonCongo(Republicof)23.501

.751

5.008.251

5.001

2.501

8.20–1

.759.1

04.951

0.309.305.303.505.903.304.703.20Coted'IvoireEgyptGhanaJordanKenyaKuwait7.801

8.509.007.907.506.251

6.0024.001

7.006.5020.2023.5022.005.002.591

0.00–22.893.681

2.272.37–28.442.701

8.405.47–0.222.1

15.218.5031

.894.227.653.923.7321

.6345.443.801

.801

8.0322.222.899.006.501

1

.256.75–0.1

52.331

.213.255.674.1

17.793.255.58