農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究所InstituteofEnvi

氣候情景在寧夏北移冬小麥順應(yīng)氣候變化

的本錢效益分析中的運(yùn)用

ApplicationofClimateScenariosinCost-benefitAnalysisofWinterWheatNorthwardasAdaptationOptiontoClimateChangeinNingxia

農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)

No.12SouthZhongguancunAvenue

HaidianDistrict,100081,P.R.China

:+86-10-82106020;Website:

:mashm@ami.ac;shiming99ma@yahoo

北京100081海淀區(qū)中關(guān)村南大街12號(hào)中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS)馬世銘研討員博士背景－－Background研討內(nèi)容和方法－－Methods研討結(jié)果〔現(xiàn)狀〕－－Results〔1〕研討結(jié)果〔預(yù)估〕－－Results〔2〕主要結(jié)論與建議－－MainconclusionsandRecommendations提綱(Outline)中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange背景--Background中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange研討區(qū)域(Studyareas)中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange寧夏年平均溫度變化ChangeofannualmeantemperatureinNingxia惠農(nóng)HuinongN39°涇源JingyuanN35°中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange農(nóng)業(yè)順應(yīng)技術(shù)調(diào)查當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)業(yè)消費(fèi)、氣候、數(shù)據(jù)搜集氣候情景〔A2,B2〕本錢效益分析順應(yīng)技術(shù)效果現(xiàn)狀評(píng)價(jià)順應(yīng)技術(shù)效果的未來評(píng)價(jià)順應(yīng)對(duì)策綜合評(píng)價(jià)分析氣候變化對(duì)冬小麥北移的奉獻(xiàn)冬小麥北移消費(fèi)建議冬小麥北移CERES-Wheat模型中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange研討內(nèi)容和方法－－MethodsInvestigationofAdaptationOptionsClimateDataClimateScenariosA2,B2Cost-benefitAssessmentofAdaptationOptionsAssessmentofAdaptationOptionsinFutureAdaptationStrategiesClimateAnalysisAdaptationRecommendationsWinterWheatNorthwardCERES-WheatModelMethods中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange研討結(jié)果〔現(xiàn)狀〕－－Results〔1〕20072008NPVw-syuan/ha凈現(xiàn)值元/hm2NPVw-syuan/ha凈現(xiàn)值元/hm2吳忠Wuzhong1469.103598.20永寧Yongning2868.005264.70賀蘭Helan3732.452516.85平均Means2689.803793.202007與2021年冬小麥和春小麥凈利潤(rùn)NPV〔netpresentvalue〕ofwinterwheat-springwheatin2007and2021BCR(benefit-cost-ratio)ofwinterwheatandspringwheatintercroppingwithmaizein2007and2021中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange20072008效益冬/成本冬Bwm/Cwm效益春/成本春Bsm/Csm效益冬/成本冬Bwm/Cwm效益春/成本春Bsm/Csm吳忠Wuzhong1.010.810.810.72永寧Yongning1.171.051.110.92平均Means1.090.930.960.822007、2021年冬小麥套種玉米與春小麥套種玉米效益本錢比率冬季和春季平均溫度變化

MeanminimumtemperatureinwinterandJanuary中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange

中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange冬季和春季平均最低溫度變化MeanminimumtemperatureinwinterandJanuary預(yù)估的冬季和春季平均溫度變化

Meantemperatureimpactassessment

ofwinterunderA2andB2scenariosinirrigationareasofNingxia中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange研討結(jié)果〔預(yù)估〕－－Results〔2〕中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange預(yù)估的冬季和春季平均最低溫度變化MeanminimumtemperatureinwinterandJanuary在A2和B2情景下預(yù)估的冬小麥和春小麥產(chǎn)量

SimulatedyieldsofspringandwinterwheatunderA2andB2scenarios中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange未來凈現(xiàn)值－－NPVinFuture種植冬小麥?zhǔn)强梢詭硇б娴捻槕?yīng)措施，特別是冬小麥套種玉米和復(fù)種蔬菜Winterwheatcroppingcouldbringthebenefit,especiallybytheintercroppingwithmaizeandvegetables.It’soneofbeneficialadaptationoptions冬小麥種植本錢與春小麥種植本錢相近Thecostsbywinterwheatcroppingarenearlysameasbyspringwheatcropping1990年代最低平均溫度的升高，為寧夏冬小麥種植提供了能夠性Theincreasedmeanminimumtemperaturein1990’sprovidedthepossibilitytogrowwinterinNingxia總體而言，未來升高的溫度將對(duì)冬小麥和春小麥消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生不利影響Generally,thehighertemperatureinfuturewouldhaveadverseimpactsbothonspringwheatandwinterwheatproduction農(nóng)戶冬小麥種植志愿遭到冬小麥籽粒質(zhì)量的影響Thefarmer’swillingtogrowwinterwheatisaffectedbythequalityofwinterwheatseed中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange主要結(jié)論－－Mainconclusions建議－－Recommendations改良冬小麥質(zhì)量－－Improvingthequalityofwinterwheatseeds調(diào)整灌溉制度－－Adjustmentsoftheirrigationsystems開發(fā)新種植制度－－Developmentofnewcroppingsystems提高機(jī)械化程度－－Improvingthemechanization穩(wěn)定擴(kuò)展冬小麥種植面積－－Steadilydevelopmentofwinterwheatplantingareas中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可繼續(xù)開展研討所氣候變化研討室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDiv