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Chapter2AChangedGlobalRealityNotestotheTextFinancialinstitutionthatseemedassolidasgranitedisappearedasiftheywerenomoresubstantial

thanabunchofflowersinthehandsofanoldstylemagician.原來堅如磐石的金融機構(gòu)消失了,似乎還不如老套的魔術(shù)師手中變出的花束看起來真實。NotestotheTextthestuffofhistory:historicalAndithasbeen:anellipsismakeone’swayto:前往某處cometotermswithsomething:妥協(xié)、接受NotestotheTextWEF(WorldEconomicForum)Anindependentorganizationcommittedtoimprovingthestateoftheworldbybringingtogetherbusiness,political,academicandsocialleaderstoshapeglobal,regionalandindustryagendas.Question1Whatarethefeaturesofthetwomajoreconomiesthattheworldhasseenformorethan200years?Onehasdominatedtechnologicalinnovationandtradeandamassedgreatwealth.Thesecond—muchofitpoliticallyunderthethumbofthefirst—hasremainedpoorandtechnologicallydependent.NotestotheTextFourAsianDragonsHongKongSAR,Singapore,RepublicofKoreaandTaiwanAreaNotestotheTextThedevelopedworldofthehavesisstrugglingtorestartgrowthandpreservewelfarestates,whiletheworldoftheoncehave-notshassurgedoutofthedownturn.生活富有的發(fā)達國家正在努力重新刺激經(jīng)濟增長并維持社會福利,而那些曾經(jīng)貧困的發(fā)展中國家卻已經(jīng)擺脫了經(jīng)濟困境。Question2Howmuchdidlow-and-middle-incomecountriescontributetoworldgrowthin2010?Almosthalf(46%)Question3Takingalongtermview,whyisitgoodnewsthatdevelopingcountriesaregrowingfast?Asbillionsofpoorpeoplebecomemoreprosperous,theywillbeabletoaffordthecomfortstheircounterpartsintherichworldhavelongconsideredthenormalappurtenancesoflife.由于數(shù)以億計的窮人變得更加富有,這些人將能夠支付得起富裕國家的人們長期視為正常生活一部分的舒適的物質(zhì)條件。NotestotheTextOtherwise,theworldcouldyettipbackintobeggar-thy-neighborpopulismthatwillendupbeggaringeveryone.Wearenotoutofthewoodsyet.beggar-thy-neighborpopulism以鄰為壑的民粹主義outofthewoods擺脫困境否則,這個世界可能退回到以鄰為壑的民粹主義中去,而其結(jié)果將會使各國經(jīng)濟更加糟糕(淪為乞丐)。我們?nèi)晕疵撾x困境。Question4Whataretheworst-casescenariosthatEuropehassofaravoided?Acollapseoftheeuro,adebtcrisisthatspillsfromsmalleconomiessuchasGreeceandIrelandtomuchbiggeroneslikeItalyandSpain,andbittersocialunrestinthosenationsthatarehavingtomassagewagesdownwhilecuttingpublicbudgets.NotestotheTextdouble-diprecession雙底衰退Itdescribesasituationinwhichtheeconomygrowthslidesbacktonegativeafterashort-livedgrowthandtheeconomymaymoveintoadeeperandlongerdownturn.索羅斯是在匈牙利首都布達佩斯發(fā)表演講時做上述表態(tài)的。他表示,還不能確定全球經(jīng)濟的下一次走低是否會在2010年或2011年發(fā)生?!半p底型衰退”(doublediprecession)又稱“W型衰退指在全球經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)觸底逐漸回升時,經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇可能失去動能,在不久的將來會再一次觸底。2009年下半年,全球經(jīng)濟開始從金融危機中觸底反彈,但是,不少媒體和經(jīng)濟學(xué)界的人士包括索羅斯認為,全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇可能失去動能,“雙底”衰退具有實質(zhì)性威脅。NotestotheTextThoughEuropeiswheezingundercascadingsovereign-debtcrises,ithassofaravoidedtheworst-casescenarios---acollapseoftheeuro……………盡管歐洲在洶涌而至的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機下茍延殘喘,但到目前為止,它已避免了最糟糕的狀況---歐元的崩潰。。。。。。。NotestotheTexttidingsn.(古)消息Cassandran.卡珊德拉InGreekmythology,Cassandra,alsoknownasAlexandra,wasagoddesswiththegiftofprophecy.flattenout:stopgrowing/goingup

e.g.GoldpriceontheLondonmarketareexpectedtoflattenoutafteraperiodoffluctuation.Question5WhydoesJimWalkerthinkthat2011willbea“yearofreckoning”?BecauseJimWalkerthinksthatthereboundintheUSisamiragecreatedbyexcessivestimulus.HeexpectstheUStoslipintothedoubledipitdodgedin2010.Question6Whyhastheprivate-sectordebtcrisisof2008-2009morphedintoapublic-sectordebtcrisisin2010-11?Ithasbeentheresultofthedebtanddeficitsamassedintheprocessofstimulatingeconomiesandbailingoutbanksduringthedownturn.

bailout:tohelpsomeoneoutofdifficultsituation,oftenbygivingthemmoney.NotestotheTextscalebacksth/scalesthback

相應(yīng)縮減,按比例

減少e.g.Regulatorsareclampingdownontheseinstitutions,forcingthemtoraisecapitalandscalebacklending.監(jiān)管部門也在向這些機構(gòu)施壓,要求它們籌資并縮減貸款。NotestotheTextBallooningdebtsandfeeblegrowthprospectsfortheadvancedeconomiesarereorderingtheinvestor’sperceptionofrisk.balloonvi.Whensomethingballoons,itincreasesrapidlyinamount.激增;猛漲發(fā)達國家債務(wù)激增,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展疲軟,這種現(xiàn)象正在改變投資者對風(fēng)險的判斷。NotestotheTextNotingthattheU.S.“hasnoplaninplacetostabilizeandultimatelyreversetheupwarddebttrajectory,”Moody’sinmid-Januarywarnedthatthecountry’sAAAcreditratingcouldcomeunderpressureifdebtcontinuestomount;afewdayslater,Moody’supgradedIndonesia’srating.注意到美國“沒有合適的計劃來穩(wěn)定并最終逆轉(zhuǎn)上揚的債務(wù)曲線,”穆迪公司在一月中旬警告說如果美國的債務(wù)繼續(xù)增加,這個國家的3A信用等級可能面臨壓力;幾天之后,穆迪公司提升了印尼的信用等級。NotestotheText快速增長的通貨膨脹強勁的國內(nèi)需求增長刺激性政策商品價格(市場)需求回歸供應(yīng)限制因素寬松的貨幣政策食品價格指數(shù)達到歷史新高飛漲的價格asharpriseininflationstrongdomesticgrowthstimuluspoliciescommoditypricesreturningdemandsupplyconstraintsloose-moneypoliciesfoodpriceindexreachanall-timehighspikingpricesQuestion7Whataretherisksthatemergingeconomiesface?a.sharpriseininflationb.risingoilpricesc.soaringfoodpriceNotestotheTextInmid-January,Chinaraisedthereserve-requirementratio---whichforcesbankstoparkmoremoneyathomeforeveryloantheymake---toarecordhighinanattempttocurtailcreditandquellinflation,whichroseatthefastestpaceintwoyearsinNovember.一月中旬,中國提高銀行準備金率至歷史新高,強制銀行每發(fā)放一筆貸款就必須在央行存入更多的儲備金。中國試圖以此減少信貸并且抑制通過膨脹。今年十一月,中國的通貨膨脹達到兩年來的最快增速。Question8WhatdidChinaandIndiadotocopewithinflationandrisingfoodprices?Chinaraisedthereserve-requirementratio;IndiaresortedtodiplomaticmeanswhenPakistantemporarilycutoffsomeexportsofonionstothecountry.NotestotheTextragingfoodprices

飆升的食品價格cutoffexports

削減出口bustinflation

消除通貨膨脹dampengrowth

抑制增長Question9Howtounderstandpopulistresentmentinthisparagraph?Sincecommonpeopleindevelopedcountrieswerestillsufferingfromunemploymentduringtherecovery,therefore,theymaytransferdissatisfactionwithdomesticeconomytopeoplelivinginemergingeconomieslikeChina,IndiaandpartsofAfrica,thusbreedingafeelingofpopulistresentment.NotestotheText…tookplaceinahighlychargedatmosphere.Ifasituationischarged,itisfilledwithemotionandthereforeverytenseorexciting.Chinaistiredofbeinglecturedtobythosewhoseemunabletomanagetheirowneconomiesparticularlywell.中國厭倦了被那些連自己的經(jīng)濟都管理不好的國家教訓(xùn)。NotestotheTextU.Sbusinesses,whichhaveinthepastbesupportiveoffreetradeandengagementwithChina,arebeginningtosingwithdifferentvoices.Comment:TheU.SgovernmentisnowtryingtoexertinfluenceuponinternationaltradeandturnedagainstChinatimeandagain.NotestotheTextIntheU.S.andEurope,acertainhelplessnessinthefaceofhugeeconomicforcesisfuelingadisaffection---whichmakesitselffeltindifferentwaysindifferentsocieties---withtheglobalfinancialelitesandthepolicymakerswhoarethoughttohaveconnivedwiththem.在美國和歐洲,面對巨大經(jīng)濟壓力卻無能力的現(xiàn)象正激起人們對全球的金融精英和和決策者的不滿,認為他們串通一氣,這種不滿在不同的社會表現(xiàn)形式不同。NotestotheTextTherewasaparticularlypoignantmomentwhenIreland,whichcherishesitsindependencelikeapreciousjewel,wasforcedtogocapinhandtotheEUforabailoutinNovember.視獨立如珍寶的愛爾蘭,11月為了得到緊急財政援助,不得不向歐盟求助,這令人感到非常心酸。NotestotheText…whichexcoriatedabourgeoiscapitalismwhose“fumbleinagreasytill/Andaddthehalfpencetothepence/Andprayertoshiveringprayer,until/Youhavedriedthemarrowfromthebone.”這行詩痛斥了資本主義商人“在滿是油污的錢柜里摸索,一點一點積攢,不停地禱告,直到榨干工人的骨髓(最后一滴血)。Question10Howcanadisaffectionwithglobalcapitalisminthedevelopedworldbepreventedfromturningintoabacklashagainstit?如何阻止人們對發(fā)達國家所倡導(dǎo)的全球資本主義的不滿演變?yōu)閺娏业种疲縄twouldhelpifthereweremechanismsinplacetomanagethestressesintheinternationaleconomy.NotestotheTextTheDoharoundoftradetalks,…..everyoneknowsthereisnothingthere,butnobodywillsayso.Comment:Nopracticalachievementhadbeenreachedduringthetalkssincetheattendingcountriesconsideredtoomuchabouttheirowninterests.NotestotheTextYettheunmediatedriftbetweencountries(2),eachdesperatetopreserveitsedgeintheglobaleconomicgame(1),isnoteventhemostseriousdivisionthatpolicymakershavetocontendwith(3).在全球經(jīng)濟博弈中,各國都竭盡全力保持自身的優(yōu)勢

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