APERC+能源轉(zhuǎn)型期間的油氣安全（演講PPT）

OilandgassecurityduringtheenergytransitionAPERCWorkshoChris

Doleman,

Senior

Researcher,

APERCEmerging

trends2Energysecurity

isnowatthe

centerof

energy

policy

discussionsMonthlyfossilfuel

prices

onanenergy

equivalent

basis,1997

to2022

(USDperMMBtu)50403020100Jan-1997

Sep-1999

May-2002

Jan-2005

Sep-2007

May-2010

Jan-2013

Sep-2015

May-2018

Jan-2021AsianLNGpriceNewcastleCoalBrentoilSource:

IMF,

JOGMEC,EIA,APERCanalysis?

Pandemic

recovery

isprompting

arebound

in

energy

demand?

Energy

supplygrowth

isconstrained

byseveral

combining

factors?

Russia-Ukrainian

warisreorganizing

energy

supplychains3Severeweatheris

exacerbating

APEC’s

energysecuritychallengesSource:

MISO?

Extremetemperatureselevatedemandprofileswhilechallengingfuelsupplyavailability

andreliability?

Storm

surgesdisruptingjust-in-timedeliveries,damaginginfrastructure?

Droughts

reducingfuelandcoolantavailability4Governmentsareputtingenergysecurity

intotheirown

hands?

Prioritisation

of

domesticenergy

endowmentsfor

domesticuse?

Energyexport

bans:Indonesia’s

month-long

coalexport

ban

(January

2022)?

Australia

considering

gasreservation?

China

increasing

coal

productive

capacity

to

rely

lesson

imports?

Securing

theupstreamthrough

directinvestments?

Japan

investing

inLNGprojects,

andnaturalgassupply

intheUS?

Governmentsare

rethinking

their

long-term

energyplans

to

reducereliance

onoil

andgasimports?

VietNamshiftinglong-termpower

mixawayfromoil,gasandcoaland

towardsrenewables5GovernmentsareinterveninginenergymarketstoimproveaffordabilityMonthlyIndonesiangasprice

–withcontrols

versus

spotLNGprices,USDper

MMBtu,January2020

toMay2022Singapore

LNGstoragecapacity

(million

m3)4035302520151050Jan-20SpotLNGJul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22GaspolicyfixedpriceOriginalPriceContractSource:

GIIGNL,

Platts,

EMA,

APERCAnalysisSource:

MEMR,

IMF,

APERCAnalysis?

Governments

participate

inorguide

LNGsupply

procurement;

Singaporeischartering

stand-by

FSU,

FSRU

capacity?

More

regulation

to

wholesale

and

retailelectricity

markets?

Pricecaps

forwholesale

natural

gas

and

coal(to

inturn

reducepowerprices)inAustralia?

Regulatorsmandating

the

weatherproofing

of

energy

supply

chains

inthe

US(withquestionable

effectiveness)?

SPRreleases

to

put

aceiling

on

crudeprices?

Subsidies6Long-term

LNGcontractsare

insulatingsomefromhigh

spotpricesMonthlycommodity

prices

facing

LNGimporters

(USDperMMBtu),2020

to202250403020100Jan-2020

May-2020

Sep-2020

Jan-2021

May-2021

Sep-2021

Jan-2022

May-2022

Sep-2022LNGoilindex10to15%AsianLNGspotLNGHHindexSource:

JOGMEC,IMF,

EIA,APERCanalysis?

Long-term

contractsare

insulating

incumbent

importers

from

elevated,

volatile

spotprices?

China’s

short-term

contract

flexibility,

lower

demandenabled

itto

balance

globalLNGmarkets

in20227Short-termfuelswitching

away

fromgas

is

difficult

in

practiceElectricity

fuel

inselect

APEC

LNGimporting

economies.

2021

and2022100%Wind80%60%40%20%0%SolarOtherRenewablesOtherFossilNuclearNetImportsHydroGas2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022BioenergyCoalChinaJapanMexicoChineseTaipeiThailand

SingaporeKoreaSource:

EMBER?

Technological

capacitylimitscurrentfuelswitching?

Sophistication,redundancyandreplacementincreasesfuelswitchingability,butdonotemergeovernight?

Governmentpolicycanalsoplayaroleinlimiting

fuelswitching(forexample,coal-to-gasswitchingtargets)8Bindingsupplyconstraintssuggestareturn

to

theboom-bust

oilcycleMonthlyproducerpriceindexofoil

andgas

serviceinputs,

2019to

2022,100=

Jan2019200180160140120100806040200Jan-2019

Jun-2019

Nov-2019

Apr-2020

Sep-2020

Feb-2021

Jul-2021

Dec-2021

May-2022

Oct-2022CementSteelpipeandtubeIndustrialsandSource:

BLS?

Capitaldiscipline,

laborshortages,

inputconstraintslimiting

supplygrowth,

shiftingthemarginalsupplier

outof

APEC?

Adecade

of

demandgrowth

andinelasticsupplycouldspell

thereturn

of

theboom-bust

oil

cycle9Infrastructureconstraints

could

limitsupply

growthLNGexportcapacitypotential

intheUS,2016

to2030,Mtpa25020015010050ProposedUnderconstruction02016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030Source:

EIA?

Growing

interest

in

USLNGexports

asEurope

shifts

awayfrom

Russian

pipeline

exports?

However,

infrastructure

andcapitalconstraints

could

limitthe

supplyto

these

new

LNGfacilities10Refineryproductconstraintscreatingavailability,

affordability

concernsChina’s

annual

oilproductexportsandquotas,2019

to2022

(kt)800007000060000500004000030000200001000002019202020212022Oilproductexports(lessfueloil)ExportquotasSource:

Platts,

Reuters,

EGEDA,APERCAnalysis?

China’sexportquotascurbing

supply?

Phasedown

of

Russian

oilproduct

exports?

Capacityreductionsdueto

retirements,

unexpecteddamages

andbioconversions11Biofuelmandates

arealoneinsufficient

forimprovingenergysecuritySupplyof

biofuel

forblending

inPeru

(thousandbarrels)2500DomesticImported20001500100050002010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019Biodiesel2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019BioethanolSource:

EGEDA,Reuters,Platts?

Mandates

maybesubstituting

oil

security

concerns

with

biofuel

security

concerns12Emergency

responseprogramsareeffective

atensuringenergysecurityTEPCO

forecasted

andpeak

demand,March

22to23

2022,

(MW)5000040000300002000022/03/2022

22/03/2022

22/03/2022

23/03/2022

23/03/2022

23/03/20220:008:0016:000:008:0016:00HourlypeakdemandForecastedpeakSource:

TEPCO,GridMonitor,APERCanalysis?

Emergencyresponsemeasuresare

very

effectiveatensuringenergysecurity,

including

grid

reliability?

Japan’seffectiveemergencyresponsecould

beablueprintforothersto

imitate

atthegasand

electricretaillevel13Short-termactionsareimprovingenergysecurity,butthesehavelimits?

Plenty

of

examples

of

short-termactions

throughput

APEC

thatare

helping

theregion

navigateacuteoil

andgassupply

disruptions?

Households,

businesses,suppliers,and

governmentsare

collectively

mitigatingtheeconomic

impacts?

However,

constraints

could

limit

theseshort-termresponsesgoing

forward14Oiland

gas

demandwill

likely

remainrobustthisdecadeAPEC

total

primary

energy

supplybyfuel

inCNof

the

APEC

Outlook

8thEd.2020

and2030

(PJ)`400000350000300000250000200000150000100000500000OtherfuelsHydrogenElectricityRenewablesNuclearGasOilCoal-

5000020202030Source:

APERC?

InCN,gassupply

requirementswill

growatenth,

oilsupply

fallslightly?

Despitehigherproduction,oilandgasimportdependencewillremainelevatedandevengrowinSEA?

Supplydisruptions

will

continue

to

posearisktosomeAPECeconomies15Recommendationsto

improveenergy

securityduringthisenergy

transition16Actions

to

improveenergysecurityforoiland

gas

usersDemand

reduction

viaair-source

heatpumpadoptioninselect

APEC

economies

(bcm)3025201510502021202220232024Canada202520262027202820292030USSource:

OEE(2022a,2022b,2022c),Nature,Carbon

Brief,APERCanalysis?

Investinelectrification,efficiencyto

reduceimport

dependence?

Considerinvestmentsinredundancy,sophistication

andreplacement?

Developshort-termdemandresponse

programs

attheretaillevel?

Diversifylong-termenergyandpowerplans17Actions

to

increase

oiland

gas

supplyUSweekly

fracfleet

count60050040030020010002014201520162017201820192020202120222023Source:

Primary

Vision?

Alleviate

shaleservice

bottlenecks:

investinproductivecapacity,eliminatetariffsandresearch

laborbottlenecks?

Simplifythepermittingprocess

andfrontload

investmentsinmethane,flaringandemissionreductions?

Committo

replenishing

SPRstoragevolumesto

reducedemand-sideuncertaintyduringthetransition?

Winterisetheentiregassupply

chainof

producer-exporters18Actions

to

increase

LNGsupply,

mitigatedisruptionsActive

globalLNGcarrier

fleet,

segmented

byage,propulsiontypeandcontainment

type300250200150100500Under1010to1920to2930andoverDFDEUnder1010to19MembraneME-GI

SSDR20to2930andoverMossSteamSteamreheatTFDEX-DFSource:

IGU,

GIIGNL,

APERCanalysis?

Signlong-termcontracts,investinupstreamLNGsupply

chain,andpool

collectivelybids?

EnableLNGreloadingatallimportterminals?

ExpandLNGstoragetanks?

Investinth