證券行業(yè)券商板塊分析報(bào)告：利潤(rùn)同環(huán)比承壓供給側(cè)改革漸行漸深 20231105 -方正證券

正在你身邊證券研究報(bào)告|證券Ⅱ|2023年11月05日金融團(tuán)隊(duì).行業(yè)專(zhuān)題報(bào)告正在你身邊3Q23券商板塊合計(jì)證券主營(yíng)收入878億/yoy-11%/qoq-20%，合計(jì)凈利潤(rùn)281億/yoy-10%/qoq-28%；9M23累計(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)證券主營(yíng)收入3125投行下滑及資本金業(yè)務(wù)受限利潤(rùn)承壓。部分中小券商如中泰、西南、發(fā)權(quán)益基金678億份/qoq-1%/yoy-43%；2）按發(fā)行日統(tǒng)計(jì)，3Q23境內(nèi)股權(quán)融資規(guī)模2786億元/yoy-45%，監(jiān)管階段性收緊股權(quán)融資影響顯現(xiàn)；3）受公募降費(fèi)影響，廣發(fā)、東方單季資管業(yè)務(wù)收3Q23券商投資類(lèi)資產(chǎn)合計(jì)6.08萬(wàn)億/qoq+2%；年化投資收益率均值1.4%，投資類(lèi)收入23兩融資產(chǎn)小幅擴(kuò)張，利息收入同比+4%。3Q23末上市券商合計(jì)融出資金余額1.29萬(wàn)億元/qoq+0.6%；合計(jì)買(mǎi)入返售金融資產(chǎn)381/qoq-9.4%;單季利息收入545億/yoy3Q業(yè)績(jī)已初步驗(yàn)證供給側(cè)改革邏輯，而明年是供給側(cè)改革大年，集中度或更上一臺(tái)階。提升三大路徑：降費(fèi)帶來(lái)中小機(jī)構(gòu)加速出推薦中國(guó)銀河、中信證券、華泰證券；建議風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：資本市場(chǎng)改革不及預(yù)期；流動(dòng)性不及預(yù)期；股市大幅調(diào)整；并購(gòu)重23 板塊3Q利潤(rùn)同比-10%，前三季度利潤(rùn)同比+7%。3Q23綜合性券商(不含東財(cái),下同)合計(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)證券主營(yíng)收入878億/yoy-11%/qoq-20%，實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤(rùn)281億/yoy-10%/qoq-28%；9M23累計(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)證券主營(yíng)收入3125億/yoy+6%，實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤(rùn)1103億/yoy+7%。3Q單季投資業(yè)務(wù)同比改善，其余業(yè)務(wù)均有所承壓。單季主營(yíng)收入拆分如下：?輕資本業(yè)務(wù)收入（手續(xù)費(fèi)及傭金）yoy-18%/占比59%。其中，經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)收入占比28%，投行業(yè)務(wù)收入占比13%，資管業(yè)務(wù)收入占比13%，其他手續(xù)費(fèi)收入占比5%。輕資本業(yè)務(wù)收入下滑，主因政策調(diào)整及市場(chǎng)不佳導(dǎo)致新發(fā)基金、股權(quán)融資規(guī)模承壓。?資本金業(yè)務(wù)收入yoy+3%/占比41%。其中，投資收入（含匯兌損益）yoy+37%/占比26%，3Q股債不佳但同比改善；利息凈收入yoy-34%/占比12%；長(zhǎng)股投收入yoy+0%/占比3%。44家綜合性券商小計(jì)1Q232Q233Q23收入結(jié)構(gòu)環(huán)比1H239M23同比收入結(jié)構(gòu)營(yíng)業(yè)收入1,3561,3511,133-10%-16%2,7073,8402%凈利潤(rùn)431391281-10%-28%8221,1037%證券主營(yíng)收入1,1471,100878-11%-20%2,2473,1256%-18%-17%-33%-2%-6%-9%-12%-13%-2%1%-11%-12%-18%1%-9%11%137%-34%0%-39%-17%-9%69%-22%18%7%7% 經(jīng)紀(jì)及兩融業(yè)務(wù)方面，三季度交投活躍度同環(huán)比下行。3Q23滬深日均股票成交7998億元/qoq-21%/yoy-13%，日均兩融余額15861億元/qoq-2%/yoy-2%。投行業(yè)務(wù)方面，債銷(xiāo)規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)，階段性收緊致股權(quán)承壓。按發(fā)行日統(tǒng)計(jì)，3Q23A股IPO規(guī)模1092億元/qoq-11%/yoy-38%，再融資規(guī)模1137億元/qoq-5%/yoy-58%；券商債權(quán)承銷(xiāo)規(guī)模qoq+7%/yoy+41%。監(jiān)管階段性收緊股權(quán)融資，影響已有所體現(xiàn)。資管業(yè)務(wù)方面，權(quán)益基金規(guī)模受凈值拖累下滑，新發(fā)基金仍較弱。3Q23全市場(chǎng)非貨基16.5萬(wàn)億/qoq+2%/yoy+4%，股混基金規(guī)模7.2萬(wàn)億/qoq-2%/yoy+1%。3Q23新發(fā)權(quán)益基金678億份/qoq-1%/yoy-43%。投資業(yè)務(wù)方面，股債不佳但同比有改善。3Q23中證全債指數(shù)跌0.06%（去年同期漲0.85%滬深300下跌4.0%、創(chuàng)業(yè)板指下跌9.5%。證券行業(yè)核心指標(biāo)證券行業(yè)核心指標(biāo)單位：億元環(huán)比同比4Q222Q232Q223Q223Q231Q221Q23經(jīng)紀(jì)與兩融業(yè)務(wù)經(jīng)紀(jì)與兩融業(yè)務(wù)日均兩融余額10,0869,4779,1778,40817,37315,64216,15315,6048,81015,71310,08216,1597,9987,99815,861-12.8%-1.8%-20.-20.-1.8%新發(fā)基金份額2,6564,0144,3003,7302,6982,4562,439-43.3%-0.7% 資管與公募業(yè)務(wù)新發(fā)權(quán)益基金份額1,6995801,643772989840678-58.8% 資管與公募業(yè)務(wù)股混基金規(guī)模:期末75,20378,87271,55174,75575,63873,28172,0300.7%-1.7%非貨基規(guī)模:期末150,707161,877158,982155,754157,249162,071165,4364.1%2.1%A股IPO規(guī)模:按發(fā)行日1,3271,2741,7618609611,2261,092-38.0%-10.9% 投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)A股再融資規(guī)模1,4511,3972,7172,8821,9231,1961,137-58.2%-5.0%證券公司債承規(guī)模25,37931,19226,31624,21227,24634,56937,07640.7.3%中證全債(凈):漲跌幅-0.07%0.26%0.85%-0.97%0.15%1.17%-0.06%-0.9pct-1.2pct 投資交易業(yè)務(wù)滬深300:漲跌幅-14.53%6.21%-15.16%1.75%4.63%-5.15%-3.98%1.2pct 投資交易業(yè)務(wù)科創(chuàng)50:漲跌幅-21.97%1.34%-15.04%2.19%12.67%-7.06%-11.67%4pctct創(chuàng)業(yè)板指:漲跌幅-19.96%5.68%-18.56%2.53%2.25%-7.69%-9.53%9.0pct-1.ct在你身邊杠桿普遍收縮，部分券商投資杠桿逆勢(shì)提升。44家綜合性券商3Q23平均經(jīng)營(yíng)杠桿3.39倍，環(huán)比-0.07倍；平均投資類(lèi)杠桿2.10倍，環(huán)比-0.03倍。部分券商投資杠桿逆勢(shì)提升，如中信、東方、興業(yè)、東吳、國(guó)聯(lián)。上市券商經(jīng)營(yíng)杠桿、投資杠桿情況（按1H單位：億元序號(hào)上市券商投資杠桿2022投資類(lèi)資產(chǎn)(億元)單位：億元序號(hào)上市券商投資杠桿2022投資類(lèi)資產(chǎn)(億元)202020211H233Q23202020211H233Q232020202120221H233Q232022 -44家均值3.273.413.353.463.391.791.931.982.132.1040,71149,77754,44659,79860,762 1中信證券4.684.064.344.292.793.092.522.702.865,0626,456 2華泰證券4.504.444.204.344.242.682.782.582.812.713,4634,1324,2664,7024,670 3國(guó)泰君安4.364.692.342.432.582.712.663,2113,5794,0634,4294,4214中國(guó)銀河4.284.364.834.834.692.282.623.173.343.211,8532,5883,2503,9243,872 5申萬(wàn)宏源4.455.215.405.425.262.703.363.663.81 6廣發(fā)證券3.613.843.994.023.972.042.22 7中金公司5.614.154.253.573.54 9中信建投4.384.514.5582.782.662.802.992.921,8842,1242,6092,8532,818 12東方證券3.733.693.173.333.382.542.452.182.332.431,5271,5721,6851,8201,91013光大證券3.222.932.963.022.8114興業(yè)證券3.623.813.333.573.851.95 16長(zhǎng)江證券3.483.813.843.713.531.812.162.412.372.1917國(guó)元證券2.272.8118東吳證券2.882.472.692.663.181.591.3019財(cái)通證券3.373.613.193.273.021.651. 20中泰證券3.914.153.573.423.512.232.241.721西部證券1.932.593.012.922.991.111.912.132.192.0728751857760257422東興證券3.332.963.283.143.082.111.852.242.192.1144624國(guó)聯(lián)證券483.343.794.284.511.772.262.672.753.00187370447488537 72個(gè)股表現(xiàn)：自營(yíng)帶來(lái)中小券商高彈性，頭部亦有分化 自營(yíng)扭虧帶來(lái)中小券商高彈性、頭部亦有分化。華泰、國(guó)君亮眼，中信穩(wěn)健，中金不及預(yù)排名第一，國(guó)君單季同比+40%/排名第一；中信體現(xiàn)韌性，單季同比-5%/環(huán)比-13%，均優(yōu)于同業(yè)；中金單季利潤(rùn)-52%/累計(jì)-23%，不及預(yù)期，主因1）政策收緊下投行承壓比下降13.5億2）風(fēng)控指標(biāo)較緊致資本金業(yè)務(wù)受限。自營(yíng)修復(fù)推動(dòng)部分中小券商業(yè)績(jī)高增。中泰、西南、長(zhǎng)城Q3單季利潤(rùn)分別同比+1431%、+240%、+143%，主因投資改善，三家單季投資收入分別從-2.3、-1.1、-0.2億扭虧至0.8、0.7、3.3億。光大證券MPS事件預(yù)計(jì)負(fù)債轉(zhuǎn)回21.5億，相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)影響基本消解，重整行裝再出發(fā)。上市券商9M23及3Q23主營(yíng)收入及凈億元前三季度：9M23單三季度：3Q23序號(hào)代碼券商營(yíng)收yoy證券主營(yíng)yoy凈利潤(rùn)↓yoy營(yíng)收yoy凈利潤(rùn)yoy-44家可比合計(jì)3,8652.0%3,1495.7%1,1106.6%1,140-9.7%282-10.3%1600030.SH中信證券458.1-8%426.40%164.1-1%143.1-4%51.1-5%2601688.SH華泰證券272.315%239.717%95.923%88.619%30.324%3601211.SH國(guó)泰君安270.31%209.210%86.32%87.021%28.940%4601881.SH中國(guó)銀河254.8-7%140.6-5%66.03%80.7-11%16.6-21%5600999.SH招商證券148.7-3%133.3-3% 64.02%40.8-13% 16.7-16%6000776.SZ廣發(fā)證券180.13%169.77% 58.111%47.8-1%23%7601066.SH中信建投183.8-19%161.3-4%56.9-12%49.2-41%-33%8002736.SZ國(guó)信證券124.4-6%113.30%48.72%42.3-15%-17%9601995.SH中金公司174.7-10%172.2-10%-23%50.4-31%10.5-52%600837.SH海通證券225.719%145.80%-28%56.1-18%5.3-60%601788.SH光大證券77.6-13%70.8-9%28%15.8-56%19.751%000166.SZ申萬(wàn)宏源162.8-10%128.24%2%40.4-23%6.0-35%600958.SH東方證券137.014%95.88%28.643%50.06%9.6-29%601901.SH方正證券56.7-4%55.4-5%0%16.1-12%5.0-4%600918.SH中泰證券92.825%81.641%104%26.510%2.51431%601555.SH東吳證券80.4-8%51.823%41%27.0-39%3.6-15%601377.SH興業(yè)證券88.623%70.513%-11%19.2-16%-2.1-153%601108.SH財(cái)通證券49.540%48.539%39%14.812%4.64%000728.SZ國(guó)元證券49.328%33.115%23%18.229%5.125%20601878.SH浙商證券126.29%43.810%15%41.71%4.2-2%21600109.SH國(guó)金證券50.323%49.522%50%17.08%3.629%22002939.SZ長(zhǎng)城證券31.516%31.370%114%9.550%3.2143%23000783.SZ長(zhǎng)江證券51.525%44.219%25%13.24%0.9-41%24601059.SH信達(dá)證券27.42%27.12%50%8.4-7%3.662%25600909.SH華安證券27.213%23.07%9.60%8.18%3.029%28601456.SH國(guó)聯(lián)證券25.122%24.118%7.313%7.0-10%-39%9 3Q23市場(chǎng)日均股基成交額7998億元/yoy-13%、新發(fā)權(quán)益基金678億/yoy-43%；板塊經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)收入yoy-17%。預(yù)計(jì)金融產(chǎn)品代銷(xiāo)收入減少疊加傭金費(fèi)率下行致板塊降幅大于ADT降幅。部分券商逆勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)，如中信建投、財(cái)通證券。 單位：億元9M23↓YOY占主營(yíng)收入比重3Q23YOY -44家小計(jì)780.1-12%25%246.2-17%1中信證券78.3-11%18%25.4-12%2國(guó)泰君安51.0-13%24%16.0-18%3華泰證券46.3-13%19%14.7-17%4廣發(fā)證券44.7-10%26%14.4-16% 5中信建投43.2-5%27%15.41%6招商證券42.8-14%32%13.5-20%7中國(guó)銀河42.0-15%13.2-20%8中金公司35.1-6%20%10.2-11%9申萬(wàn)宏源33.9-17%26%10.3-19% 10國(guó)信證券33.0-17%29%10.6-20%11海通證券28.7-21%20%9.0-22%12方正證券24.9-9%45%7.8-17%13中泰證券22.7-23%%7.4-33%14光大證券22.0-16%7.1-22% 15長(zhǎng)江證券21.9-11%6.6-22%16東方證券21.6-7%23%6.9-9%17興業(yè)證券17.7-18%5%5.4-27%18浙商證券13.2-9%0.7-85%19東吳證券12.7-8%5%4.4-2% 20國(guó)金證券12.2-2%25%4.1-3%21華西證券11.5-17%45%3.3-26%22財(cái)通證券9.0-1%19%3.24%23華創(chuàng)云信7.4-10%2.4-5%24華安證券7.3-6%32%2.3-9% 38國(guó)聯(lián)證券3.9-6%16%1.3-14% 00投行業(yè)務(wù)：階段性股權(quán)融資收緊影響顯現(xiàn)，3Q在你身邊Q3單季綜合性券商實(shí)現(xiàn)投行業(yè)務(wù)收入115億/yoy-33%。證監(jiān)會(huì)提出階段性收緊IPO節(jié)奏，統(tǒng)籌一二級(jí)市場(chǎng)平衡，3Q23境內(nèi)股權(quán)融資2786億/yoy-45%，其中IPO規(guī)模1092億/yoy-38%，再融資規(guī)模1694億/yoy-49%。 單位：億元9M23↓YOY占主營(yíng)收入比重3Q23YOY -44家小計(jì)354-18%11%115-33%2中信建投38.9-15%12.72-27% 5中金公司26.2-44%6.31-68%6華泰證券22.9-21%10%6.81-44% 12東吳證券9.18%18%2.32-45% 15招商證券7.5-32%6%2.994%16浙商證券6.817天風(fēng)證券5.6-25%1.22-3 20國(guó)聯(lián)證券4.30%18%1.44-19%21廣發(fā)證券4.0-10%2%1.03-39%24中國(guó)銀河3.3-36%2%1.43-49% 25西部證券2.646%9%0.47-36%00 3Q23綜合性券商實(shí)現(xiàn)資管業(yè)務(wù)收入117億/yoy-2%。其中，國(guó)泰君安、中泰證券、國(guó)聯(lián)證券資管收入實(shí)現(xiàn)高增（+197%、+331%、+262%主因報(bào)告期內(nèi)控股基金公司華安基金、萬(wàn)家基金、國(guó)聯(lián)基金并表。公募管理費(fèi)降費(fèi)影響已現(xiàn)，部分公募并表營(yíng)收占比較高的券商明顯承壓，如廣發(fā)-19%、東方-28%。 單位：億元9M23↓YOY占主營(yíng)收入比重3Q23YOY -44家小計(jì)347.91%11%117.2-2%2廣發(fā)證券60.3-10%18.4-19% 9中金公司9.5-10%6%3.0-14% 10中信建投9.530%6%3.44%13光大證券6.9-14招商證券5.5-13%4% 21國(guó)聯(lián)證券2.9121%12%2.1262%22浙商證券2.6-23%6%0.8-28% 單位：億元投資類(lèi)收入(含匯兌)序號(hào)上市券商9M23↓yoy占主營(yíng)收入比重3Q23投資收益率投資類(lèi)資產(chǎn)投資類(lèi)資產(chǎn)/凈資產(chǎn)9M23年化3Q23年化9M23規(guī)模qoq1H23單位：億元投資類(lèi)收入(含匯兌)序號(hào)上市券商9M23↓yoy占主營(yíng)收入比重3Q23投資收益率投資類(lèi)資產(chǎn)投資類(lèi)資產(chǎn)/凈資產(chǎn)9M23年化3Q23年化9M23規(guī)模qoq1H239M231H23yoy44家小計(jì)59,79860,7621,103230.7240%241%2.9%1.4%35%69%37%2%-1中信證券178.122%42%53.534%2華泰證券99.154%41%24.837%3.0%2.1%4,670-1%4,702267%276%3中金公司90.38%52%28.1-10%3.3%3.1%3,7112% 6中國(guó)銀河58.320%41%11.6-20%2.2% 12東方證券23.4110%24% 23國(guó)聯(lián)證券11.422%47%1.7-5 投資業(yè)務(wù)低基數(shù)下同比改善。3Q23綜合性券商投資類(lèi)資產(chǎn)合計(jì)6.08萬(wàn)億/qoq+2%/占凈資產(chǎn)比重241%；實(shí)現(xiàn)投資類(lèi)收入（含匯兌）231億元/yoy+37%。部分中小券商低基數(shù)下彈性凸顯，如中泰證券、長(zhǎng)城證券、財(cái)通證券等。 兩融資產(chǎn)小幅擴(kuò)張帶動(dòng)利息收入提升。3Q23綜合性券商實(shí)現(xiàn)利息收入545億/yoy+4%；期末合計(jì)融出資金余額1.29萬(wàn)億元/qoq+0.6%，合計(jì)買(mǎi)入返售金融資產(chǎn)3816億/qoq-9.4%。單位：億元利息收入融出資金余額買(mǎi)入返售金融資產(chǎn)序號(hào)上市券商9M23↓yoy3Q23yoy9M23qoq1H239M23qoq1H23-44家小計(jì)/均值1,647.04%544.74%12,9240.6%12,8483,816-9.4%4,2141中信證券163.74%56.46%2.4%41023.0%3332海通證券151.519%50.559%671664336-18.3%4113112.8-4%34.3-11%884-0.5%889600-21.2%7614華泰證券110.08%37.48%-0.2%-30.6%5中國(guó)銀河110.03%37.02%8640.5%86023521.3%6廣發(fā)證券101.66%33.54%855-0.6%861-1.7%7招商證券81.52%27.3-2%823-0.4%826332-10.9%3738中信建投77.811%25.72%546-2.0%557-39.7%322971.8-4%23.8-4%61961269-22.4%89中金公司71.720%22.69%345340-21.4%24656.15%18.94%52351455-22.9%東方證券45.17%14.2-3%2000.3%48-24.0%64興業(yè)證券38.96%13.2-4%295-1.3%29977.9%光大證券38.1-8%12.6370-1.1%3745-88.5%4536.5-13%11.9-14%3222.5%31450.8%長(zhǎng)江證券36.10%11.8-7%2860.7%284-6.4%方正證券32.65%10.72%3042.5%2974-8.4%428.75%10.05%0.4%30.9%24東吳證券23.64%7.0-5%2.6%28.9%20東興證券19.0-10%6.2-11%4.9%837.6%62118.91%6.30%2262.0%2226.2%22浙商證券18.31%6.32%635723財(cái)通證券18.01%5.924華西證券16.5-11%5.2-15%-1.2%970.6%9725長(zhǎng)城證券13.11%4.43%228-0.1%228-45.7%29國(guó)聯(lián)證券10.819%3.931%-0.1%45-17.6%54 3Q23綜合性券商合計(jì)利息支出443億元/yoy+15%、期末主動(dòng)負(fù)債規(guī)模5.4萬(wàn)億元/qoq-0.7%；3Q23年化平均綜合負(fù)債成本率平均3.18%（9M23為3.46%）。單位：億元利息支出綜合負(fù)債成本有息負(fù)債規(guī)模序號(hào)上市券商9M23↓yoy3Q23yoy9M233Q2320223Q23yoy1H23-44家小計(jì)/均值1,306.612%439.815%3.47%3.18%3.36%53,916-0.7%54,3121中信證券130.913%44.816%3.82%3.67%3.67%3.35%50657.9%46932海通證券118.822%39.620%4.05%4.05%4.05%3.52%3858-2.9%39723華泰證券101.424%35.227%3.66%3.71%3.71%3.11%3764-1.9%3836496.720%33.624%3.59%3.53%3.53%3.01%3648-7.8%39585中金公司80.026%26.728%3.74%3.86%3.86%3.33%27992.4%27336中國(guó)銀河76.815%25.813%3.04%2.93%2.93%2.96%3466-3.3%35857廣發(fā)證券76.819%26.020%3.11%2.99%3.05%3456-1.1%3493871.8-2%22.8-2%2.92%2.80%2.80%2.92%3238-1.8%32989招商證券68.4-3%23.55%2.88%2.97%2.97%2.88%3150-1.2%3190中信建投62.719%21.425%2.98%2.95%2.95%2.72%2839-4.4%296941.14%13.811%2.37%2.38%2.38%2.52%23675.1%2252東方證券31.84%10.98%2.80%2.75%2.75%2.76%2.5%興業(yè)證券24.67%8.914%3.18%3.29%3.29%3.33%光大證券24.50%8.0-1%3.04%2.92%2.92%3.08%-7.0%23.6-6%7.8-8%3.43%3.48%3.48%3.48%9204.6%879方正證券21.320%7.529%3.44%3.38%3.38%3.12%8993.2%871天風(fēng)證券20.918%7.012%4.70%4.47%4.47%4.37%595-8.9%653長(zhǎng)江證券19.50%6.3-2%3.31%3.06%3.28%795-7.5%859東吳證券15.815%5.244%3.07%3.05%3.26%78633.3%5902015.122%5.222%2.97%2.91%2.91%2.91%7202.7%70121財(cái)通證券14.116%4.418%3.03%2.85%2.85%2.61%582-12.2%66322長(zhǎng)城證券13.017%4.432%3.34%2.98%2.98%3.20%586-2.1%59823浙商證券12.62%4.2-6%3.18%3.14%3.14%3.16%5518.4%50824東北證券10.717%3.526%4.76%4.05%4.05%4.72%339-3.3%35025東興證券10.72%3.324%2.79%2.76%2.76%2.77%480-1.7%48829國(guó)聯(lián)證券9.414%3.421%3.04%3.01%3.20%4627.5%430 歷史上券業(yè)集中度實(shí)際呈周期波動(dòng)：各維度的集中度大體上隨周期波動(dòng)，熊市提升、牛市下降、中樞穩(wěn)定；19年以來(lái)注冊(cè)制、衍生品發(fā)展等系列資本市場(chǎng)改革推動(dòng)集中度中樞略有所提升。原因幾何？成本端的相對(duì)剛性；需求側(cè)的同質(zhì)化，牛熊切換帶來(lái)中小券商營(yíng)收端的更大彈性…3Q業(yè)績(jī)已初步驗(yàn)證供給側(cè)改革邏輯，而明年是供給側(cè)改革大年，集中度或更上一臺(tái)階：需求側(cè)的變化也在漸漸發(fā)揮作用，比如我們近年來(lái)觀察到的投行業(yè)務(wù)的集中趨勢(shì)、衍生品業(yè)務(wù)的高集中度…；但供給側(cè)推動(dòng)下的集中度提升或更顯著：今年有很多政策預(yù)期，也陸續(xù)落地了很多，但明年是受影響的完整一年，降費(fèi)效果集中反映到經(jīng)營(yíng)上，更重要的政策導(dǎo)向和并購(gòu)趨勢(shì)將在明年再度強(qiáng)化。幾個(gè)重要的點(diǎn)：一是降費(fèi)后更多中小機(jī)構(gòu)的出清，二是并購(gòu)重組的加速度，三是優(yōu)質(zhì)券商的杠桿約束放年份年份集中度CR1CR3CR5CR10CR2025%36%58%77%34%45%66%85%20%35%45%67%85%33%48%75%94%29%41%65%86%30%51%70%23%34%58%78%9%22%34%58%77%8%24%37%56%75%29%50%68%29%38%56%75%20%30%50%68%29%50%68%8%21%31%53%71%8%21%34%58%79%8%22%33%55%73%26%37%60%79%25%38%61%78%20162015201920182022202120142017202020082006200720092012201320102011市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)Wind全A行業(yè)券商家數(shù)112%166%-63%105%-7%-22%5%5%52%38%-13%5%-28%33%26%9%-19%--在你身邊假設(shè)24E機(jī)構(gòu)傭金率降低至4bp、公募管理費(fèi)率完成下調(diào)，靜態(tài)測(cè)算上市券商24E營(yíng)收增速將平均放緩約4.5pct.其中，中信（-2.9pct）、銀河（-1.2pct）、中金（-2.1pct）、華泰（-3.2pct）、國(guó)聯(lián)（-2.3pct）等受影響小。機(jī)構(gòu)傭金率、公募管理費(fèi)率下調(diào)對(duì)各家上市券商24E營(yíng)收序號(hào)上市券商上市券商平均1西南證券2第一創(chuàng)業(yè)3天風(fēng)證券4長(zhǎng)城證券5長(zhǎng)江證券整體影響-4.5%-14.65%-14.65%-14.38%-14.11%-11.26%-797%傭金率下降-1.9%-2.67%-0.63%-8.48%-1.73%-663%公募費(fèi)率下降-2.7%-11.98%-13.75%-5.63%-9.53%-134%序號(hào)上市券商整體影響傭金率下降公募費(fèi)率下降上市券商平均-4.5%-1.9%-2.7%23首創(chuàng)證券-3.70%-1.33%-2.37%24西部證券-3.60%-2.90%-0.70%25國(guó)信證券-3.44%-1.24%-2.20%26海通證券-3.28%-1.31%-1.97%27華泰證券-324%-079%-245%6789東北證券興業(yè)證券東方證券廣發(fā)證券招商證券-7.53%-6.94%-6.90%-6.15%-597%-3.34%-2.51%-2.09%-1.53%-169%-4.19%-4.43%-4.81%-4.62%-428%2829303132方正證券-3.23%-2.47%-0.76% 中信證券-2.94%-1.13%-1.81%浙商證券-2.94%-2.46%-0.48%中信建投-2.46%-1.86%-0.60%國(guó)金證券-246%-190%-056%信達(dá)證券太平洋財(cái)通證券東方財(cái)富中銀證券-5.59%-5.39%-5.35%-5.33%-519%-2.79%-4.09%-0.32%-1.38%-133%-2.80%-1.30%-5.03%-3.95%-386%3334353637東興證券-2.45%-1.42%-1.03% 國(guó)聯(lián)證券-2.38%-1.10%-1.28%國(guó)泰君安-2.30%-1.05%-1.25% 中金公司-2.05%-1.10%-0.95%國(guó)元證券-150%-061%-089%20中泰證券華安證券光大證券申萬(wàn)宏源華西證券-5.10%-5.10%-4.30%-4.18%-4.12%-3.96%-3.38%-1.28%-2.12%-1.80%-3.39%-1.72%-3.02%-2.06%-2.32%-0.57%3839404142山西證券南京證券山西證券南京證券紅塔證券華林證券-0.35%-0.44%-0.07%-0.21%-0.72%-0.56%-0.85%-0.37%中國(guó)銀河-1.16%-0.93%-0.23%-1.07%-1.07%-1.00%-0.92%-0.58%21東吳證券-3.86%-3.30%-0.56%22國(guó)海證券-378%-150%-228%4344財(cái)達(dá)證券中原證券-0.50%-0.50%-034%-0.12%-005%-0.38%-029%在你身邊時(shí)隔四年證監(jiān)會(huì)再度明確表態(tài)支持并購(gòu)重組。19年11月末，證監(jiān)會(huì)亦明確表態(tài)支持并購(gòu)重組；據(jù)中證報(bào)11月3日?qǐng)?bào)道，證監(jiān)會(huì)將支持頭部證券公司通過(guò)業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)新、集團(tuán)化經(jīng)營(yíng)、并購(gòu)重組等方式做優(yōu)做強(qiáng)，以落實(shí)中央金融工作會(huì)議“培育一流投資銀行和投資機(jī)構(gòu)”要求。過(guò)往券業(yè)并購(gòu)預(yù)期多而落地少，當(dāng)前供需兩端催化下有望提速。近年來(lái)券業(yè)并購(gòu)事件主要包括中信證券吸收合并廣州證券（18/12公告，20/03完成）、國(guó)聯(lián)證券擬化下、券業(yè)并購(gòu)案例有望在未來(lái)1-2年內(nèi)集中兌現(xiàn)并持續(xù)增加，基于：1）供給端，降費(fèi)讓利背景下，通道牌照價(jià)值弱化，提升股東股權(quán)出讓意愿（昆明產(chǎn)投減持紅塔證券、錦龍股份轉(zhuǎn)讓東莞證券2）需求端，券商股權(quán)融資收緊背景下，行業(yè)資本補(bǔ)充難度加大，外延并購(gòu)或成為當(dāng)前各家券商做大做強(qiáng)的少數(shù)可選路徑之一。除民生證券+國(guó)聯(lián)證券、華創(chuàng)證券+太平洋證券等同業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)案例外，未來(lái)并購(gòu)案例有望持續(xù)增加。22/12方正證券控股股東正式變更為新方正集團(tuán)，平安集團(tuán)入股后證券