2023年宏觀投資策略展望分析報(bào)告：安之若素否極泰來

??????????海外經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)展望國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)展望市場(chǎng)投資策略展望?????10.008.006.004.002.000.00-2.00-4.00-6.002021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-09:2022-122023-03:GDP:GDP:GDP:::%:GDP:GDP::%::%:%::????????????80.0060.0040.0020.000.001,000,000.00800,000.00600,000.00400,000.00200,000.000.00-20.00-40.00-60.00-200,000.00-400,000.00?:::::::%%???14.0012.0010.008.00PCE%14.0012.0010.008.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.00-10.00-20.00-30.006.006.004.004.002.002.000.000.00-2.00-4.00-2.00-4.00:CPI::PPI:%:CPI:%PCEPCE:%???海外經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)展望國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)展望?

需求不足仍是主要矛盾，期待政策加碼后的否極泰來，全年GDP同比預(yù)計(jì)為5.3%左右市場(chǎng)投資策略展望????????+9??1月-5月39.04%39.54%35.39%39.14%39.19%39.16%38.92%38.90%38.98%39.27%39.23%39.41%39.33%39.04%6月-12月2022202160.96%60.46%64.61%60.86%60.81%60.84%61.08%61.10%61.02%60.73%60.77%60.59%60.67%60.96%預(yù)期值2020疫情前10年均值20192018201720162015201420132012201120104

5??Q1Q2????????????????????2月央行萬億逆回購滾續(xù)補(bǔ)充流動(dòng)性??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

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???2.80002.60002.40002.20002.00001.80001.60001.40001.20002022年4月-8月流動(dòng)性寬松DR007(%???90,000.0070,000.0050,000.0030,000.0010,000.00-10,000.00-30,000.00-50,000.00::6??????????部約束200.0000150.0000100.000050.00007.40007.20007.00006.80006.60006.40006.20000.0000-50.0000-100.0000-150.0000-200.0000-250.0000-300.00002017-03-012018-03-012019-03-012020-03-012021-03-012022-03-012023-03-01美中利差（BP

即期匯率:美?兌人民幣（右軸??3.50003.30003.10002.90002.70002.50002.30002.10001.90001.700090.0070.0050.0030.0010.00-10.00-30.00-50.003.002.502.001.501.000.500.00-0.5013.0012.0011.0010.009.002020-06-032021-06-032022-06-032023-06-038.00MLF利率-AAA級(jí)一年期同業(yè)存單到期收益率（BP（右中債商業(yè)銀行同業(yè)存單到期收益率(AAA):1年（%（左中期借貸便利(MLF):利率:1年（%（左7.00中國:CPI:當(dāng)月同比(%)(左中國:M2:同比(%)(右??70.0065.0060.0055.0050.0045.0040.0035.0030.0025.0020.00280.00260.00240.00220.00200.00180.00160.00中國:居民部門杠桿率(%)(左中國:政府部門杠桿率(%)(左中國:實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)部門杠桿率(%)(右???12,000.0010,000.008,000.006,000.004,000.002,000.000.00:(MLF):(GDGD5.3??25.0020.0015.0010.005.00GDP季調(diào)環(huán)比（%

5.004.00預(yù)測(cè)值3.007.42.004.94.41.001.0

1.10.50.000.00Q1Q2Q3Q4-1.00-2.00-3.00-5.00-10.00-15.002011201820122019201320202014202120152022201620232017GDP::(%)GDP:(%)海外經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)展望國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)展望市場(chǎng)投資策略展望??2023年大類資產(chǎn)漲跌幅（截至6月21日30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%??40,00030,00020,00010,00009132.131830.77921.84497.75-1270.59-1875.99-3762.24-4261.41-11270.61-13348.67-10,000-20,000-30,000-19667.69股票?南向北向公募基金再融資兩融增?測(cè)算?額股東增減持IPO募集資金????2023申萬一級(jí)行業(yè)指數(shù)月度漲跌幅范圍及平均數(shù)25%20%15%10%5%6.14%1.20%0.71%0%-1.26%-1.32%-4.31%-5%-10%-15%1月2月3月4月5月6月(截止6.21)平均數(shù)注：取各指數(shù)每月平均交易額占全部A股成交額比例測(cè)算其在過去五年交易額占比中的歷史分位值注：6月數(shù)據(jù)取值截止于6.21日??????