外文翻譯-利用層次分析法選擇各類(lèi)發(fā)電廠及外文翻譯-一個(gè)魯棒的基于機(jī)器視覺(jué)運(yùn)動(dòng)目標(biāo)檢測(cè)與跟蹤系統(tǒng)

英文原文Multi-criteriaselectionofelectricpowerplantsusinganalyticalhierarchyprocessAbstractThispaperusesanalyticalhierarchyprocess(AHP)methodologytoperformacomparisonbetweenthedifferentelectricitypowerproductionoptionsinJordan.Thesystemswhichwereconsidered,inadditiontofossilfuelpowerplants,arenuclear,solar,wind,andhydro-power.Resultsoncosttobenefitratiosshowthatsolar,wind,endhydro-powermaybethebestalternativesforelectricpowerproduction.Nuclearelectricityturnsouttobetheworstchoice,followedbyfossilfuelelectricpower.1.IntroductionJordanisanon-oilproducingMiddle-Easterncountry.Itreliesheavilyonimportingoilfromneighboringcountries.Mostoftheelectricpowerthatisgeneratedtoservedifferentsectorsofthecountryisproducedfrompowerplantsthatusefossilfuel.Thisfueliseithertotallyimportedsuchaspetroleumhydrocarbonfuel,orpartiallylocal(onlywithsmallpercentage)suchasnaturalgas.The1996electricalenergyconsumptioninJordanreachedavalueof6000GWh.About93%ofhisamountwasproducedbytheNationalElectricPowerCompany(NEPCO)whichisthemainelectricitysupplierinthecountry[1].Otheroptionsoralternativesofenergysourcesforelectricpowergenerationmustteeconsidered.Theseoptionsmayincludenuclear,solar,wind,orhydro-electricenergies.TheJordanianexperiencewithelectricitygenerationusingsolarandwindenergytechnologyhasbeenonthesmallandexperimentalscale.TheserenewableenergysystemswereutilizedinmostlyremoteareasofJordan.Theyareusedtogenerateelectricpowerforindividualapplicationsuchasclinics,lighting,andeducationaltelevisionsets.TheremotevillageofJurfEldaraweeshlocatedintheJordandesertofapopulationof600,isthebestexample[2].Thenecessaryelectricalenergyistotallysuppliedbysolarandwindenergyconversionsystems.Inthispaper,oil-firedpowerplantsinadditiontootheralternativesarebeingevaluated.Theotheralternativesincludenuclear,solar,windandhydro-power.Abriefdescriptionofvariouspowerplanttechnologieswillbepresented.Usingadecision-supportsystemthroughamultiplecriteriaanalysis,suchasAHP,anattemptwillbemadetoassistdecisionmakerstoevaluatetheuseoftheabovetechnologieswhichcanbemostsuitableforelectricalpowerproductioninJordan.2.Fossil-fuelelectricalpowerplantsIngeneral,fossilfuelsarenon-renewable.Theyoriginatefromtheearthasaresultofdecompositionandchemicalconversionoforganicmaterials.Theycomeinthreeorganicforms:(1)solid,e.g.coalandoilshale;(2)liquid,e.g.mostpetroleumproducts,and(3)gas,e.g.naturalgas.Coalrepresentsthelargestfossil-fuelenergyresourceinelectricpowergeneration[3,4].OilshaleisafossilfuelthatexistsinJordaninabundance,butwithunattractivephysicalproperties.First,likealloilshales,ithasalowheatingvalueduetothehighashcontent[5].Secondly,theJordanianoilshalehassulfurcontents,ranging4–6%[6].Becauseoflowpricesofpetroleumworldwidetheutilizationofsolidfossilfuels,suchasoilshale,cannotbefeasibleatthetimebeing.Therefore,oilshalepowerplantscannotbeconsideredtobecompetitive[3].PetroleumandnaturalgasarethemainfuelsusedfortheelectricpowergenerationinJordaninadditiontosmallhydro-poweredelectricitygenerationplants.Table1representstheexistingelectricalpowerplantsinJordan[1].3.ElectricitypowerproductionusingsolarenergySincethe1970ssolarenergyhasreceivedthegreatestattentionofallrenewableenergysourcesallovertheworld.Manyregarditasthesolutionforcleanerenvironmentandmaybethealternativetofossilandnuclearfuels.Thus,solarenergyhasbeentheobjectforproductionofelectricalpower.Manystudiesandexperienceshaveshownthatsolarthermalpowerplantsareoneofthemosteconomicformsofsolarelectricitygeneration.Solarenergycanbeconvertedintoelectricitybyphotovoltaiccells,butthisprocessismostlyconvenientandsuitableforsmallapplicationsonly.Standalonephotovoltaicpowersystemswereproposedforelectrificationofremoteareasofwhichtheyarelocatedoutsidetheelectricitygrid-connectionsupplysystem[7].Ontheotherhand,solarenergycanbeconvertedintothermalenergybymeansofsolarcollectorsorconcentrators.Aworkingfluidisusedtoconvertthethermalenergyintomechanicalenergywhichisthenconvertedintoelectricity.Unlikephotovoltaics,largeamountsofelectricalpowercanbegeneratedfromsuchplants.Thetypesofreceiversthatcanbeseriouslyconsideredare:(1)centralreceivers,(2)dispersedordistributedreceiversand(3)solarponds.LikemostcountriesoftheMiddleEast,Jordanenjoyslongperiodsofsunshine.Thelocalweatherhasover300cloudlessdaysperyear.FuturetechnologysuggeststhattheDeadSeaitselfcanbeusedas450km2solarlake,operatinga2500MWpowerplant[8].Inarecentstudy,thepotentialofusingtheDeadSeaasalargenaturalsolarpondforgenerationofelectricityinJordanwasexplored[9].Kribusetal.[10]haveshownnewsolarpowerplantconceptbyincorporatingnewdevelopmentsofsolarpoweroptics,highperformanceairreceivers,andsolar-to-gasturbineinterface.Intermsofeconomicalpointofview,Kolb[11]foundhybridpowertowerstobesuperiortosolar-onlyplantswiththesamefieldsize.Thereisanumberofsolarthermalpowerplantsinoperationaroundtheworld.Theyarefoundtobeoneofthemosteconomicalsystemsforgeneratingelectricity[12,13].Recently,theco-generationofelectricityandpotablewaterbyutilizationofsolarenergywascarriedout[14,15].Thiskindofsystemlooksattractiveinremoteareaswherebothwaterisscaresandelectricitygridisnotavailable.Thesystemiscapableofproducing30MWeormore.4.ElectricalpowerproductionusingwindenergyItisverywellestablishedthatwindenergyresourceislargeandgloballywidespread.Fordifferentapplications,itisclearthatwindenergycanbecompetitiveinmanylocations[16–18].Windenergycanbeusedinmanyapplicationssuchaswaterpumping[19],andwaterdesalination[20].Itcanalsobeusedfortheelectricalpowergenerationusingwindenergyconversionsystem[21].Windpowerisexpectedtobeoneoftheleastexpensiveformsofnewelectricalgenerationinthetwenty-firstcentury[22].WithglobaleffortstobecometoughonfossilfuelrelatedenergysystemsandtoreducetheemissionsofCO2significantly,thiswillmostlikelyintroducelowercostwindsystems.Forexample,largewindpowerplantsatgoodwindsitesusingemergingtechnologiescandeliverelectricityintoutilitygridatlowpricesthatarebecomingcompetitivewiththoseofconventionalpowergeneration.Windpowerplantscanusehundredsofwindturbinesthatrangeinsizefrom50to500kWeachlocatedinsomeremoteareas.Theplant’scomputerizedandcontrolcenteroperatessimilartofossilfuelplants,exceptitdoesnothavetobeinsightofturbines.Inarecentstudyamodelofwindpowerplantforisolatedlocationwaspresented[23].Increasesinthepricesoffuelandcostoffossilfuelplantsandinrelyinglessonnon-renewableenergyresources,decreasethevalueandcostofwindpowergenerationsystemssignificantly[24,25].TherearenumberofsitesinJordanwithpotentiallyhighwindspeeds,thatcanbeutilizedforthispurpose[26,27].Habalietal.[27]havepresentedanevaluationofwindenergyinJordananditsapplicationforelectricalpowergeneration.Atotalof11windsiteswereconsideredcoveringtheentirecountry.ThethreemostpotentialsitesinJordanarefoundtobeRasMuneef,Mafraq,andAqaba.Theyhavewindspeedsthatrangefrom4to23msthroughout80%ofthewholeyear.5.Hydro-electricpowerplantsHydro-electricpowerplantscanprovideabasisforevaluatingthepotentialofrenewablesourcesofenergy.Whencomparedtootherthermalpowerplants,theyarefoundtobeconventionalandreliable.Somecountriesutilizethisformoffreenaturalenergyintousefultypeofelectricalpower.Forexample,11%oftheelectricpowerproducedintheUSAwasprovidedbyhydro-electricpower[4].EgyptandTurkey,countriesofthisregion,alsoutilizethistypeofpowerforgeneratingelectricityatlowcosts.Anumberofstudieswereinvolvedinutilizinghydro-powerinJordanforthepurposeofelectricityproduction[28],waterdesalination[29,30],andbothelectricityproductionandwaterdesalination[8,31].Thesestudies,mainly,consideredthelinkageofRedandDeadSeaswithacanaltogeneratehydro-power.TheDeadSeaisabout400mbelowsealevel(BSL),itisroughly200kmtothenorthoftheGulfofAqaba.ItisanextensionoftheRedSea.TheDeadSeahasnooutlet;itswaterlevelisafunctionofinflowandevaporationofwater.ForthousandsofyearstheDeadSeamaintainedanequilibriumwiththeannualinflowandevaporationofwater.Thisresultedinaconstantsealevel.Forexample,in1930thesurfaceoftheDeadSeawasmeasuredatitshistoricalelevationofabout390mBSL.TheJordanRiverisconsideredtobethemaintributaryoftheDeadSea.Overtheyearsduetoincreaseinpopulationandagriculturaldevelopment,waterwasdivertedforirrigationintheJordanValleyandneighboringcountries.Therefore,itselevationwasforcedtodrop,drastically;in1993itwas408mBSL.Tohaltthistrend,itwillbenecessarytointroduceasubstantialamountofnewwatertothesea.SeawaterfromtheRedSeacanbeusedasasourceofwaferneededfordiversionintotheDeadSea.Thisdiversioncanbeusedtoeithermaintaintheseaatitscurrentlevelandthusstopitsdropping,oreventobringitbacktoitshistoricallevel.ThepowerobtainedfromsuchprocesscanbeusedtogenerateelectricityandallowevenmorefreshwatertobedivertedfromtheJordanRiver.6.NuclearpowerplantsItisverywellknownfactthatforthosecountriesthatrelyonbutdonothaveoil,nuclearpowerbecomesastrategicaswellaseconomicnecessity[3].Nuclearpowerplantscanpayfortheircapitalcostinafewshortyears.Thus,alessexpensiveelectricpowercanbeproducedwithoutrelyingonimportingforeignoil,oratleastthereductioninoilimport.Somebelievethatonedayoilwillbedepleted,andnuclearpowerbecomesamust.Therefore,itisimportanttostartthistechnologynowinordertoassurethecountrywouldnotbeleftbehindwhenthetimecomestohavetousenucleartechnology.Nuclearelectricityoffersanadvantagefromanenvironmentalpointofviewandairpollution.Ithaslessenvironmentalproblemsthatareassociatedwithoil-firedpowerplants.Thus,nuclearpowerisboundtobecomethechoiceofpowerforthefuture.Therearesomedifficultiesthatareassociatedwithnuclearpower,namely,wastedisposalandsafety.Ifthiskindofenergybecomespopularinmostcountriesaroundtheworld,solutionstotheseproblembecomeamustandthusbefound.7.TheanalytichierarchyprocessTheanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP),whichwasdevelopedbySaaty[32],hasbeenaneffectivetoolinstructuringandmodelingmulti-objectiveproblems.Forexample,ithasbeenappliedtobusinessdecisions[33],selectionofareasofresearchanddevelopmentprograms[34],realestateinvestments[32],waterpolicies[35],andwaterdesalinationtechnologies[29].AHPcanassistdecisionmakerstoevaluateaproblemintheformofahierarchyofreferencesthroughaseriesofpairwisecomparisonsofrelativecriteria.Briefly,relativeweightsaredeterminedthroughpairwisecomparison.Themethodcanbeappliedbybreakingdowntheunstructuredcomplexscorecardproblemsintocomponentparts.Hierarchicalordersarethenarrangedbyformingvaluetreestructures.Subjectivejudgmentsontherelativeimportanceofeachpartarerepresentedbyassigningnumericalvalues;thenumericalvaluesareselectedinaccordancetoFig.1.Thesejudgmentsarethensynthesizedintheuseofeigenvectorstodeterminewhichvariableshavethehighestpriority.ThedecisionregardingtheselectionofanoptimumsystemforelectricitypowergenerationinJordanwasevaluatedaccordingtobenefitsandcosts.Cost-tobenefitanalysisisobtainedbyseparatingcostsfrombenefitsandstructuringseparatehierarchiesforbenefitsandcosts.TheywereconstructedasshowninFigs.2and3.Theoverallobjective(goal)forbothhierarchieswastoselectanoptimumsystem(i.e.level1).Fig.2showsthecosthierarchy.Thecostcriteriaatlevel2arecostoffuel,hardwarecost,maintenanceandservice,auxiliarysystem,andenvironmentalconstraints.Fig.3presentsthebenefithierarchy,itincludesallpossiblebenefitsthatmaybederivedfromthevariouselectricalpowergenerationpowerplants,asappliedtoJordan.Level1ofFig.3istheselectionoftheoptimumsystemintermsofbenefits.Thebenefitcriteriaatlevel2aretheefficiencyofthesystem,itsreliability,itssafety,availabilityofthefuelusedinthesystem,itseffectonnationaleconomy,andsocialbenefits.ThethirdlevelofthecostandbenefithierarchiesrepresentsthevarioustechnologiesoralternativeswhicharegoingtobeconsideredforelectricalpowerproductioninJordan.Inadditiontofossilfuelfiredpowerplantsthesesystemsincludenuclear,solar,wind,andhydro-power.8.ResultsanddiscussionFig.2showsthatnuclearandfossilfuelpowerplantshavethehighestcost,withrelativeweightsof0.429and0.337,respectively.Ontheotherhandsolar,wind,andhydrohavemuchlowervaluesofrelativeweightsintherangeof0.077–0.079.Itisbasedonthecosthierarchywhichindicatesthatcostoffuelhasthehighestrelativeweightof0.375amongallothercostsconsidered.Itisfollowedbyhardwareandmaintenancecosts;theirrelativeweightis0.215each.Environmentalconstraintsandtheneedofauxiliarysystemhavethelowestrelativeweightswithvaluesof0.122and0.074,respectively.Benefitshierarchy(Fig.3)showsthatfossilfuelpowerplanthasthemostbenefitshavingarelativeweightof0.255.Itisfollowedbysolarandwindpowerplants;theircorrespondingrelativeweightsare0.162and0.130,respectively.System’sreliabilityhasthehighestrelativeweightof0.365.Itisfollowedbyavailabilityoffuel,system’sefficiency,itseffectonnationaleconomy,safetyandthensocialbenefits.Inordertogivethecompletepicturetheoverallcostpriorities(relativeweights)weredividedbythebenefitpriorities.Anoverallnormalizedcost-tobenefitratiowasobtainedforeachsystem.TheyarepresentedinFig.4.Itisshownthatnuclearelectricalpowerplantshavethehighestoverallcost-to-benefitratio,witharelativeweighsvalueof0.57.Fossilfuelpowerplantshavethesecondrelativeweightofabout0.23.Thebestsystemswithlowestcost-to-benefitratiosaresolar,followedbywindandthenhydrohavingrelativeweightsof0.058,0.061,and0.083,respectively.9.ConclusionsBasedonAHP,solarelectricalpowerplantshavethepotentialtobethebesttypeofsystemforelectricityproductioninJordan.Theyarefollowedbywindandthenhydro-powerplants.Onecanarguethatallthreetechnologiesoranyofthetwocombinedcanbeusedsincetheyhavecloserelativeweights.Ontheotherhandnuclearpowerplantshavetheworstratingandfossilfuelpowerplantsaresomewhatlittlebetterthannuclear.中文譯文利用層次分析法選擇各類(lèi)發(fā)電廠摘要本文運(yùn)用層次分析法(AHP)詳細(xì)地介紹了利用不同能源進(jìn)行發(fā)電。這個(gè)理論認(rèn)為,除了化石燃料發(fā)電廠,還有核能、太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能、水電。結(jié)果表明,成本效益比較好的太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能、水電可能是電力生產(chǎn)的最佳選擇。核能發(fā)電是最壞的選擇,緊隨其后的是化石燃料發(fā)電。1.介紹約旦是非石油生產(chǎn)的中東國(guó)家。它進(jìn)口的石油來(lái)自鄰近國(guó)家。大部分的電力來(lái)自國(guó)家不同的電力行業(yè),這些電廠使用化石燃料。這些燃料不是完全進(jìn)口的石油碳?xì)淙剂?或部分地方(只有很小的百分比,例如天然氣)是碳?xì)淙剂稀?996年的電能消耗的價(jià)值達(dá)到了約6000美元/年。他數(shù)量的93%是由國(guó)家電力公司(NEPCO)供應(yīng)的,國(guó)家電力公司是在這個(gè)國(guó)家主要的電力供應(yīng)商。其他選擇的能源發(fā)電必須加以考慮。這些選項(xiàng)可以包括核能、太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能、水電能源。約旦太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能發(fā)電技術(shù)已在小規(guī)模實(shí)驗(yàn)。這些可再生能源的利用系統(tǒng)主要的偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)。他們生產(chǎn)的電力被用來(lái)個(gè)人申請(qǐng)，如診所、照明、教育的電視機(jī)。這個(gè)偏遠(yuǎn)的村子位于約旦沙漠,是世界上最好的例子。所需的電能是完全由太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能轉(zhuǎn)化系統(tǒng)提供。在這篇文章中,除原油電廠，其他方案都被評(píng)估。提出了一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)短的描述各種電站技術(shù)的方案，該方案包括核能、太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)力和水力。通過(guò)使用決策支持系統(tǒng)分析多重標(biāo)準(zhǔn),如層次分析法(AHP),試圖協(xié)助決策者評(píng)估使用上述技術(shù),它在約旦可以是最適合電力生產(chǎn)的方案。2.化石燃料發(fā)電一般來(lái)說(shuō),化石燃料是不可再生的。他們來(lái)自地球的分解和化學(xué)轉(zhuǎn)化的有機(jī)材料。他們有三類(lèi):(1)固體,如煤和石油頁(yè)巖;(2)液體,如大多數(shù)石油化工產(chǎn)品。(3)氣體,例如天然氣。電力是最大的縮減燃料能源的代表。石油是一種化石燃料，在約但河中存在豐富。首先,就像所有的石油頁(yè)巖,它有一個(gè)較低的加熱價(jià)值。其次,約旦石油頁(yè)巖有硫磺含量,4-6%。由于石油的價(jià)格低，世界范圍內(nèi)的利用率高的化石燃料,如石油頁(yè)巖。因此,石油頁(yè)巖發(fā)電廠可以不被認(rèn)為是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的。在約旦除了小水電動(dòng)力發(fā)電，石油和天然氣是主要的發(fā)電燃料。3.太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電自20世紀(jì)70年代，太陽(yáng)能已經(jīng)在世界各地開(kāi)始使用。許多國(guó)家把它作為解決環(huán)境污染和可能替代化石和核能的能源。因此,太陽(yáng)能已經(jīng)作為生產(chǎn)電力的對(duì)象。許多研究和經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明，太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電是電力行業(yè)中最經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)電形式。太陽(yáng)能也能被轉(zhuǎn)換成電池,但是這個(gè)過(guò)程光伏電池是最方便的，但適用于小型應(yīng)用。獨(dú)立光伏電源系統(tǒng)提出了電氣化偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)的電力電網(wǎng)連接外供電系統(tǒng)[7]。另一方面,太陽(yáng)能量可以轉(zhuǎn)化熱能，利用太陽(yáng)能集熱器或集中器等。如把太陽(yáng)能轉(zhuǎn)換成熱能，然后變成機(jī)械能，再轉(zhuǎn)化為電能。大量的電力也可以產(chǎn)生電池。這個(gè)類(lèi)型的接收器,能認(rèn)真考慮是:(1)中心的接收器,(2)分布式接收器和(3)太陽(yáng)池。喬丹最喜歡享受中東國(guó)家漫長(zhǎng)的陽(yáng)光，當(dāng)?shù)氐奶鞖庖殉^(guò)300萬(wàn)里無(wú)云的日子。未來(lái)技術(shù)表明,死海本身可以作為450平方公里,2500兆瓦電廠，運(yùn)行一個(gè)太陽(yáng)能湖。最近的一份報(bào)告研究,死海可作為潛在利用的大型天然太陽(yáng)池。從經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度講,發(fā)現(xiàn)的混合動(dòng)力塔只有太陽(yáng)與同一領(lǐng)域的尺寸。有大量的太陽(yáng)能熱發(fā)電廠在操作環(huán)游世界。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)是其中最經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)是用于太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電。這類(lèi)系統(tǒng)很有吸引力的地方都是水邊遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)電網(wǎng)嚇人,不是可利用的。該系統(tǒng)能夠生產(chǎn)30MW電能或更多。4.風(fēng)能發(fā)電風(fēng)能非常好的一面在全球范圍內(nèi)廣泛存。對(duì)于不同的應(yīng)用程序,很明顯的是,風(fēng)能可以在許多位置有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。風(fēng)能可以應(yīng)用在許多場(chǎng)合,如抽水、海水淡化。它還可以用于發(fā)電用風(fēng)能量轉(zhuǎn)換系統(tǒng)。風(fēng)力發(fā)電有望成為二十一世紀(jì)新電子產(chǎn)生的最便宜的形式。全球的化石燃料與相關(guān)的能量系統(tǒng)變得強(qiáng)硬,為減少排放的二氧化碳,風(fēng)系統(tǒng)的介紹可能顯著降低成本。例如,大型的風(fēng)力發(fā)電在風(fēng)網(wǎng)站利用新興技術(shù)能提供公用電網(wǎng)電在低價(jià)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)關(guān)系,成為傳統(tǒng)發(fā)電。風(fēng)力發(fā)電廠可以用數(shù)以百計(jì)的風(fēng)力渦輪，范圍大小從50到500千瓦各座落在一些遙遠(yuǎn)的地區(qū)。工廠的計(jì)算機(jī)控制中心設(shè)有類(lèi)似的化石燃料植物,除了它不需要的渦輪機(jī)。最近的研究模式是定位算法風(fēng)力發(fā)電裝置。價(jià)格上漲的燃料和成本的化石燃料的依賴(lài),在植物上的不可再生的能源資源,降低成本和價(jià)值的風(fēng)力發(fā)電系統(tǒng)明顯。在約旦有潛在的高速度有數(shù)字的網(wǎng)站,可用于該目的。所提交的評(píng)估,風(fēng)能在約旦和其申請(qǐng)電力。風(fēng)地點(diǎn)被覆蓋了整個(gè)國(guó)家。這三個(gè)最具發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ牡攸c(diǎn)被發(fā)現(xiàn)是在約旦,易燃、臨亞喀巴灣。他們風(fēng)速范圍從4至23日已經(jīng)達(dá)到80%。5.水力發(fā)電水力發(fā)電廠可以對(duì)潛在的可再生能源提供了評(píng)估依據(jù)。相較于其他的火電廠,他們是傳統(tǒng)的和可靠的。一些國(guó)家利用這種形式的免費(fèi)天然能量轉(zhuǎn)化為有用類(lèi)型的電力。例如,在美國(guó)11%的電力生產(chǎn)是水電。埃及和土耳其國(guó)家的這一地區(qū),還將這種類(lèi)型的動(dòng)力用于在低成本發(fā)電。在約旦大量的研究是參加利用水力發(fā)電為目的的海水淡化,在這些研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,主要考慮的紅河和死海的聯(lián)系與運(yùn)河海產(chǎn)生水電。死海低于海平面(BSL)400米,大約200公里,北臨亞喀巴灣灣，它是一種擴(kuò)展紅海。死海沒(méi)有出路；其水位是一個(gè)函數(shù)及水的蒸發(fā)。幾千年來(lái),死海維護(hù)一個(gè)年度流入和蒸發(fā)水的平衡。這導(dǎo)致了一個(gè)常數(shù)。例如,在1930年死海的表面測(cè)量其歷史的高度大約390米BSL。約但河,被認(rèn)為是死海的主要支流。在約旦河谷和灌溉的鄰國(guó),多年來(lái)由于人口和農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展增加,水被轉(zhuǎn)移。因此,它的海拔被迫大幅下降,1993年,BSL408米。來(lái)阻止這種趨勢(shì),必須引進(jìn)大量的新水流入大海。從紅海海水可以用來(lái)作為一種來(lái)源需要移師死海。這種轉(zhuǎn)移可以用來(lái)保持在海洋目前的水平,從而阻止其下降,甚至帶它回到歷史的水平。從這樣的過(guò)程中獲得的力量可以用來(lái)發(fā)電,更多的新鮮水要從約但河引入。6.核能發(fā)電在這些國(guó)家,依靠油卻沒(méi)有，這是非常有名的事實(shí)。發(fā)展核電已成為戰(zhàn)略以及發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)必要。核能電廠有能力在短短數(shù)年支付他們的資本成本。因此,一個(gè)更便宜的電力可以不用依賴(lài)進(jìn)口國(guó)外石油,或至少減少石油進(jìn)口。有些人相信有一天油會(huì)枯竭了,核能成為必然趨勢(shì)。因此,重要的是開(kāi)始這個(gè)技術(shù),以保證國(guó)家將不會(huì)被甩在后面的時(shí)候要用核技術(shù)。核能發(fā)電提供一個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì),從環(huán)境角度和空氣污染。它擁有更少的環(huán)境問(wèn)題與原油電廠。因此,核能是注定要成為選擇的力量以備將來(lái)之用。核能有一些困難，即廢物處置和安全。如果這種能量在世界上多數(shù)國(guó)家變得流行,解決這些問(wèn)題的方案,從而成為必須的研究。7.層次分析法層次分析法(AHP)在構(gòu)建和建模多目標(biāo)的問(wèn)題上已經(jīng)是一個(gè)有效的工具。例如,它已經(jīng)應(yīng)用于商業(yè)決策，選擇領(lǐng)域的研究和發(fā)展項(xiàng)目、水政策和海水淡化技術(shù)。層次分析法(AHP)可以幫助決策者評(píng)估一系列問(wèn)題的參考比較,通過(guò)一系列的相對(duì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。簡(jiǎn)要分析,通過(guò)兩兩比較確定權(quán)重。該方法可以被分解成計(jì)分卡問(wèn)題的組成部分。然后安排的層次訂單價(jià)值形成樹(shù)形結(jié)構(gòu)。各部分的相對(duì)重要性由指定的數(shù)值主觀判斷。這些判斷是利用向量來(lái)確定哪些因素已經(jīng)具有最高優(yōu)先級(jí)。這個(gè)決定對(duì)于選擇最佳電力系統(tǒng)電力被評(píng)為根據(jù)收益和成本，費(fèi)用由分離層次構(gòu)建獨(dú)立的收益和成本。整體目標(biāo)都是選擇一個(gè)最佳等級(jí)系統(tǒng)。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)費(fèi)用成本的二級(jí)燃料是硬件成本、維護(hù)、維修、輔助系統(tǒng)、環(huán)境的約束。據(jù)分析,它包括所有益處的等級(jí)可能來(lái)自不同的發(fā)電核電站。受益于二級(jí)燃料是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的系統(tǒng)的效率,其使用燃料系統(tǒng)的可靠性、安全性、有效性，是影響國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)效益的主要因素。選擇或代表第三級(jí)的成本與效益的各種層次技術(shù),要考慮在約旦的電力生產(chǎn)。此外,化石燃料發(fā)電廠這些系統(tǒng)包括核、太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能、水電。8.結(jié)果與討論研究顯示，核和化石燃料是成本最高的電廠,相對(duì)權(quán)重0.3370.429。另一方面太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能、水電有較低的價(jià)值，相對(duì)權(quán)重在0.077-0.079的范圍內(nèi)。它是基于層次成本在所有其它費(fèi)用表明燃料成本最高的，相對(duì)權(quán)重0.375。緊隨其后的是硬件和維護(hù)成本；他們的相對(duì)權(quán)重是0.215。環(huán)境的約束和需要的輔助系統(tǒng)的權(quán)重和價(jià)值觀的最低0.074和0.122。福利層次表明,化石燃料發(fā)電廠最大的利益有一個(gè)相對(duì)重量0.255。是緊隨其后的太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能,其相應(yīng)的相對(duì)權(quán)重0.130、0.162。系統(tǒng)的可靠性具有最高的相對(duì)權(quán)重0.365。緊隨其后的是觸手可及的燃料,系統(tǒng)的效率,其影響國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)效益、,安全。為了給這個(gè)總成本(相對(duì)權(quán)重)除以完整的優(yōu)先效益考慮的問(wèn)題，每個(gè)系統(tǒng)的全面規(guī)范成本效益得到了。理論分析和實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,核電有最高的整體成本效益比例,與一個(gè)相對(duì)重量?jī)r(jià)值0.57?；剂习l(fā)電廠有第二個(gè)相對(duì)權(quán)重0.23。最好的系統(tǒng)以及最低的成本效益為太陽(yáng)能,緊隨其后的是風(fēng)能和海能，相對(duì)權(quán)重分別是0.061，0.058，0.083，。9.結(jié)論基于層次分析法(AHP),在約旦發(fā)電，太陽(yáng)能電力有潛力成為最好的系統(tǒng)，其次是風(fēng),然后水力發(fā)電廠。有人說(shuō)，所有的三種技術(shù)或任何兩個(gè)組合可以用,因?yàn)樗麄冇忻芮邢嚓P(guān)的重量。附錄=1\*ROMANI外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯(1)原文：ARobustVision-basedMovingTargetDetectionandTrackingSystemAbstractInthispaperwepresentanewalgorithmforreal~timedetectionandtrackingofmovingtargetsinterrestrialscenesusingamobilecamera.Ouralgorithmconsistsoftwomodes:detectionandtracking.Inthedetectionmode,backgroundmotionisestimatedandcompensatedusinganaffinetransformation.Theresultantmotionrectifiedimageisusedfordetectionofthetargetlocationusingsplitandmergealgorithm.Wealsocheckedotherfeaturesforprecisedetectionofthetargetlocation.Whenthetargetisidentified,algorithmswitchestothetrackingmode.ModifiedMoravecoperatorisappliedtothetargettoidentifyfeaturepoints.Thefeaturepointsarematchedwithpointsintheregionofinterestinthecurrentframe.Thecorrespondingpointsarefurtherrefinedusingdisparityvectors.Thetrackingsystemiscapableoftargetshaperecoveryandthereforeitcansuccessfullytracktargetswithvaryingdistancefromcameraorwhilethecameraiszooming.Localandregionalcomputationshavemadethealgorithmsuitableforreal-timeapplications.Therefinedpointsdefinethenewpositionofthetargetinthecurrentframe.Experimentalresultshaveshownthatthealgorithmisreliableandcansuccessfullydetectandtracktargetsinmostcases.Keywords:realtimemovingtargettrackinganddetection,featurematching,affinetransformation,vehicletracking,mobilecameraimage.1IntroductionVisualdetectionandtrackingisoneofthemostchallengingissuesincomputervision.Applicationofthevisualdetectionandtrackingarenumerousandtheyspanawiderangeofapplicationsincludingsurveillancesystem,vehicletrackingandaerospaceapplication,tonameafew.Detectionandtrackingofabstracttargets(e.g.vehiclesingeneral)isaverycomplexproblemanddemandssophisticatedsolutionsusingconventionalpatternrecognitionandmotionestimationmethods.Motion-basedsegmentationisoneofthepowerfultoolsfordetectionandtrackingofmovingtargets.Itissimpletodetectmovingobjectsinimagesequencesobtainedbystationarycamera[1],[2],theconventionaldifference-basedmethodsfailtodetectmovingtargetswhenthecameraisalsomoving.Inthecaseofmobilecameraalloftheobjectsintheimagesequencehaveanapparentmotion,whichisrelatedtothecameramotion.Anumberofmethodshavebeenproposedfordetectionofthemovingtargetsinmobilecameraincludingdirectcameramotionparametersestimation[3],opticalflow[4],[5],andgeometrictransformation[6],[7].Directmeasurementofcameramotionparametersisthebestmethodforcancellationoftheapparentbackgroundmotionbutinsomeapplicationitisnotpossibletomeasuretheseparametersdirectly.Geometrictransformationmethodshavelowcomputationcostandaresuitableforrealtimepurpose.Inthesemethods,auniformbackgroundmotionisassumed.Anaffinemotionmodelcouldbeusedtomodelthismotion.Whentheapparentmotionofthebackgroundisestimated,itcanbeexploitedtolocatemovingobjects.Inthispaperweproposeanewmethodfordetectionandtrackingofmovingtargetsusingamobilemonocularcamera.Ouralgorithmhastwomodes:detectionandtracking.Thispaperisorganizedasfollows.InSection2,thedetectionprocedureisdiscussed.Section3describesthetrackingmethod.ExperimentalresultsareshowninSection4andconclusionappearsinSection5.2TargetdetectionInthedetectionmodeweusedaffinetransformationandLMedS(Leastmediansquared)methodforrobustestimationoftheapparentbackgroundmotion.Afterthecompensationofthebackgroundmotion,weapplysplitandmergealgorithmtothedifferenceofcurrentframeandthetransformedpreviousframetoobtainanestimationofthetargetpositions.Ifnotargetisfound,thenitmeanseitherthereisnomovingtargetinthesceneor,therelativemotionofthetargetistoosmalltobedetected.Inthelattercase,itispossibletodetectthetargetbyadjustingtheframerateofthecamera.Thealgorithmaccomplishesthisautomaticallybyanalyzingtheproceedingframesuntilamajordifferenceisdetected.Wedesignedavotingmethodtoverifythetargetsbasedonaprioriknowledgeofthetargets.Forthecaseofvehicledetectionweusedverticalandhorizontalgradientstolocateinterestingfeaturesaswellasconstraintonareaofthetargetasdiscussedinthissection.2.1BackgroundmotionestimationAffinetransformation[8]hasbeenusedtomodelmotionofthecamera.Thismodelincludesrotation,scalingandtranslation.2~Daffinetransformationisdescribedasfollow:(1)where(xi,yi)arelocationsofpointsinthepreviousframeand(Xi,Yi)arelocationsofpointsinthecurrentframeanda1~a6aremotionparameters.Thistransformationhassixparameters;therefore,threematchingpairsarerequiredtofullyrecoverthemotion.Itisnecessarytoselectthethreepointsfromthestationaryback~groundtoassureanaccuratemodelforcameramotion.WeusedMoravecoperator[9]tofinddistinguishedfeaturepointstoensureprecisematch.Moravecoperatorselectspixelswiththemaximumdirectionalgradientinthemin~maxsense.Ifthemovingtargetsconstituteasmallarea(i.e.lessthan50%)oftheimage,thenLMedSalgorithmcanbeappliedtodeterminetheaffinetransformationparametersoftheapparentbackgroundmotionbetweentwoconsecutiveframesaccordingtothefollowingprocedure.SelectNrandomfeaturepointfrompreviousframe,andusethestandardnormalizedcrosscorrelationmethodtolocatethecorrespondingpointsinthecurrentframe.Normalizedcorrelationequationisgivenby:(2)hereandaretheaverageintensitiesofthepixelsinthetworegionsbeingcompared,andthesummationsarecarriedoutoverallpixelswithinsmallwindowscenteredonthefeaturepoints.Thevaluerintheaboveequationmeasuresthesimilaritybetweentworegionsandisbetween1and-1.Sinceitisassumedthatmovingobjectsarelessthan50%ofthewholeimage,thereforemostoftheNpointswillbelongtothestationarybackground.2.SelectMrandomsetsofthreefeaturepoints:(xi,yi,Xi,Yi)fori=1,2,3,fromtheNfeaturepointsobtainedinstep1.(xi,yi)arecoordinatesofthefeaturepointsinthepreviousframe,and(Xi,Yi)aretheircorrespondsincurrentframe.3.Foreachsetcalculatetheaffinetransformationparameters.4.TransformNfeaturepointsinstep1usingMaffinetransformations,obtainedinstep3andcalculatetheMmediansofsquareddifferencesbetweencorrespondingpointsandtransformedpoints.Thenselecttheaffineparametersforwhichthemedianofsquareddifferenceistheminimum.Accordingtotheaboveprocedure,theprobabilitypthatatleastonedatasetinthebackgroundandtheircorrectcorrespondingpointsareobtainedisderivedfromthefollowingequation[7]:(3)where(<0.5)istheratioofthemovingobjectregionstowholeimageandqistheprobabilitythatcorrespondingpointsarecorrectlyfind.In[7]ithasbeenshownthattheabove