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文檔簡(jiǎn)介
and
Profitable
Pathway
to
APurposeful
ABetterTomorrowTM
OurNewCategoryJourney
1
Classified-Confidential
2
ImportantInformation
TheinformationcontainedinthispresentationinrelationtoBritishAmericanTobaccop.l.c.(“BAT”)anditssubsidiarieshasbeenpreparedsolelyforuseatthispresentation.Thepresentationisnotdirectedto,orintendedfordistributiontooruseby,anypersonorentitythatisacitizenorresidentorlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistribution,publication,availabilityorusewouldbecontrarytolaworregulationorwhichwouldrequireanyregistrationorlicensingwithinsuchjurisdiction.
Referencesinthispresentationto‘BritishAmericanTobacco’,‘BAT’,‘Group’,‘we’,‘us’and‘our’whendenotingopinionrefertoBritishAmericanTobaccop.l.c.andwhendenotingbusinessactivityrefertoBritishAmericanTobaccoGroupoperatingcompanies,collectivelyorindividuallyasthecasemaybe.
Theinformationcontainedinthispresentationdoesnotpurporttobecomprehensiveandhasnotbeenindependentlyverified.Certainindustryandmarketdatacontainedinthispresentationhascomefromthirdpartysources.Thirdpartypublications,studiesandsurveysgenerallystatethatthedatacontainedthereinhavebeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,butthatthereisnoguaranteeofaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchdata.
Forward-lookingStatements
Thispresentationdoesnotconstituteaninvitationtounderwrite,subscribefor,orotherwiseacquireordisposeofanyBATsharesorothersecurities.Thispresentationcontainscertainforward-lookingstatements,including“forward-looking”statementsmadewithinthemeaningoftheU.S.PrivateSecuritiesLitigationReformActof1995.Thesestatementsareoften,butnotalways,madethroughtheuseofwordsorphrasessuchas"believe,""anticipate,""could,""may,""would,""should,""intend,""plan,""potential,""predict,""will,""expect,""estimate,""project,""positioned,""strategy,""outlook","target"andsimilarexpressions.Theseincludestatementsregardingourintentions,beliefsorcurrentexpectationsconcerning,amongstotherthings,ourresultsofoperations,financialcondition,liquidity,prospects,growth,strategiesandtheeconomicandbusinesscircumstancesoccurringfromtimetotimeinthecountriesandmarketsinwhichtheBritishAmericanTobaccoGroup(the“Group”)operates.
Allsuchforward-lookingstatementsinvolveestimatesandassumptionsthataresubjecttorisks,uncertaintiesandotherfactors.Itisbelievedthattheexpectationsreflectedinthispresentationarereasonablebuttheymaybeaffectedbyawiderangeofvariablesthatcouldcauseactualresultstodiffermateriallyfromthosecurrentlyanticipated.
Inparticular,amongotherstatements:certainstatementsonslides5,6,17,27and33.
Amongthekeyfactorsthatcouldcauseactualresultstodiffermateriallyfromthoseprojectedintheforward-lookingstatementsareuncertaintiesrelatedtothefollowing:theimpactofcompetitionfromillicittrade;theimpactofadversedomesticorinternationallegislationandregulation;theinabilitytodevelop,commercialiseanddelivertheGroup'sNewCategoriesstrategy;adverselitigationanddisputeoutcomesandtheeffectofsuchoutcomesontheGroup'sfinancialcondition;theimpactofsignificantincreasesorstructuralchangesintobacco,nicotineandNewCategoriesrelatedtaxes;translationalandtransactionalforeignexchangerateexposure;changesordifferencesindomesticorinternationaleconomicorpoliticalconditions;theabilitytomaintaincreditratingsandtofundthebusinessunderthecurrentcapitalstructure;theimpactofseriousinjury,illnessordeathintheworkplace;adversedecisionsbydomesticorinternationalregulatorybodies;changesinthemarketposition,businesses,financialcondition,resultsofoperationsorprospectsoftheGroup;directorindirectadverseimpactsassociatedwithClimateChangeandthemovetowardsaCircularEconomy;andCyberSecuritycausedbytheheightenedcyber-threatlandscape,theincreaseddigitalinteractionswithconsumersandchangestoregulation
Pastperformanceisnoguidetofutureperformanceandpersonsneedingadviceshouldconsultanindependentfinancialadviser.Theforward-lookingstatementsreflectknowledgeandinformationavailableatthedateofpreparationofthispresentationandBATundertakesnoobligationtoupdateorrevisetheseforward-lookingstatements,whetherasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherwise.Readersarecautionednottoplaceunduerelianceonsuchforward-lookingstatements.
Classified-Confidential
ImportantInformation
Forward-lookingStatements(continued)
AdditionalinformationconcerningtheseandotherfactorscanbefoundinBAT’sfilingswiththeU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission(“SEC”),includingtheAnnualReportonForm20-FandCurrentReportsonForm6-K,whichmaybeobtainedfreeofchargeattheSEC’swebsite,,andBAT’sAnnualReports,whichmaybeobtainedfreeofchargefromtheBritishAmericanTobaccowebsite
.
AdditionalInformation
AllfinancialstatementsandfinancialinformationprovidedbyorwithrespecttotheU.S.orReynoldsAmericanInc.(“Reynolds”)areinitiallypreparedonthebasisofU.S.GAAPandconstitutetheprimaryfinancialstatementsorfinancialrecordsoftheU.S.business/Reynolds.ThisfinancialinformationisthenconvertedtoInternationalFinancialReportingStandardsasissuedbytheIASBforthepurposeofconsolidationwithintheresultsoftheBATGroup.TotheextentanysuchfinancialinformationprovidedinthispresentationrelatestotheU.S.orReynoldsitisprovidedasanexplanationof,orsupplementto,Reynolds’primaryU.S.GAAPbasedfinancialstatementsandinformation.
OurVapourproductVuse(includingAlto,Solo,CiroandVibe),andcertainoralproductsincludingVelo,Grizzly,Kodiak,andCamelSnus,whicharesoldintheUS,aresubjecttotheFoodandDrugAdministration(“FDA”)regulationandnoreduced-riskclaimswillbemadetotheseproductswithoutagencyclearance.
NoProfitorEarningsPerShareForecasts
NostatementinthispresentationisintendedtobeaprofitforecastandnostatementinthispresentationshouldbeinterpretedtomeanthatearningspershareofBATforthecurrentorfuturefinancialyearswouldnecessarilymatchorexceedthehistoricalpublishedearningspershareofBAT.
Audience
ThematerialinthispresentationisprovidedforthepurposeofgivinginformationaboutBATanditssubsidiariestoinvestorsonlyandisnotintendedforgeneralconsumers.BAT,itsdirectors,officers,employees,agentsoradvisersdonotacceptorassumeresponsibilitytoanyotherpersontowhomthismaterialisshownorintowhosehandsitmaycomeandanysuchresponsibilityorliabilityisexpresslydisclaimed.Thematerialinthispresentationisnotprovidedforproductadvertising,promotionalormarketingpurposes.Thismaterialdoesnotconstituteandshouldnotbeconstruedasconstitutinganoffertosell,orasolicitationofanoffertobuy,anyofourproducts.Ourproductsaresoldonlyincompliancewiththelawsoftheparticularjurisdictionsinwhichtheyaresold.
3
Classified-Confidential
01
03
AMulti-
NewCategories
are
valueaccretive
Category
Portfolioisessential
isajourney
TobaccoHarm
Reduction
02
4
Today’sThemes
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
Ourpurposeistobuild…
…throughreducingthehealthimpactofour
businessbyofferingagreaterchoiceofenjoyable
andlessrisky*tproductsforourconsumers
*Basedontheweightofevidenceandassumingacompleteswitchfromcigarettesmoking.Theseproductsarenotriskfreeandareaddictive.
5
?OurvapourproductVuse(includingAlto,Solo,CiroandVibe),andcertainproducts,includingVelo,Grizzly,Kodiak,andCamelSnus,whicharesoldintheU.S.,aresubjecttoFDAregulationandnoreduced-riskclaimswillbemadeastotheseproductswithoutagencyclearance.
6
OurObjective:
Deliveringvalueforallofourstakeholders
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
…andwe’veonlyjustbegun
100mof1.1bn
7
GlobalconsumernumbersforNewCategoriesandSmokersatanIndustryLevelSource:Statista2023,KantarIncidence&TrackStudies
Classified-Confidential
Increasinglyaglobalphenomenon
~60%
OfT-50marketsfullyopentoNewCategories
BRAMEXTUR
Keyglobalmarketsremaininaccessible
~30%
Countriesrestrict
1ormoreNew
Categories
8
Source:BATDataofcurrentmarketregulationsH12023
Classified-Confidential
AccessrestrictedtooneormoreNCsHighlyrestrictedorinaccessibletoNCs
SATISFACTION
IDENTITY
HARMREDUCTION
Marketsandconsumersarenothomogeneous
AccessibleNCmarkets
FLAVOURPREFERENCES
VALUE
CONVENIENCE
Regulation&Access
FundamentalDrivers
Occasions&Consumption
meeting
allpreferences
Nosinglesolutioniscapableof
9
Source:BATdata&ProprietaryConsumerResearch
10
So…weareinvestingnowinaMulti-Categoryfuture
Classified-Confidential
Beliefsto
Challenge
11
1
Thereisa
‘onesizefitsall’
solution
5
Nicotineisasubstantialcauseofdiseasefromsmoking
3
THPencouragesmoreswitchingthanvaping
7
Poly-users
tendtosmokejustasmuch
10
Industryvalueisdecliningwithcigarettesales
4
ModernOralisa
Scandinavian
phenomenon
8
NCsareusedequallyacrosscohorts
6
NewCategories(NCs)areoftenagatewaytosmoking
9
NCsareless
profitable
2
THPattractsthemostconsumers
BeliefstoChallenge
12
Classified-Confidential
6
NewCategories(NCs)areoftenagatewaytosmoking
9
NCsareless
profitable
8
NCsareusedequallyacrosscohorts
5
Nicotineisasubstantialcauseofdiseasefromsmoking
7
Poly-users
tendtosmokejustasmuch
10
Industryvalueisdecliningwithcigarettesales
Theme1:Multi-Category
4
ModernOralisa
Scandinavian
phenomenon
3
THPencouragesmoreswitchingthanvaping
1
Thereisa
‘onesizefitsall’
solution
2
THPattractsthemostconsumers
13
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
THPPenetration(%FMC*)
VapingPenetration(%FMC*)
Belief#1Thereisa‘onesizefitsall’solution
>70%ofVapour
>80%
ofTHP
60%
80%
70%
FACT
50%
60%
40%
50%
30%
20%
10%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
THPandVapour
correlate
inverselyto
Weighted
AverageTar
levels
8.5mg
AverageWeighted
TarperCigarette
8.5mg
AverageWeightedTarperCigarette
*FMC:FactoryMadeCigarettesSource:KantarIncidenceStudy2022,RetailAudit(suppliersdifferentbymarket),BATinternalinformation
Belgium,Bulgaria,Canada,Colombia,Croatia,CzechRepublic,Denmark,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Italy,Japan,Kazakhstan,Malaysia,Mexico,Netherlands,NewZealand,Poland,Portugal,Russia,SaudiArabia,Spain,SouthKorea,Sweden,Switzerland,UK,Ukraine,USA
14
Classified-Confidential
Belief#2THPattractsthemostconsumers
62
#TotalAdultUsers*(Mn)
54
FACT
43
+36
40
34
26
+24
21
17
13
Vapouristhebiggest
contributorto
consumergrowth
andaccelerating
11
10
10
7
2
2
20182019202020212022
VapourTHPMO
Source:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022*Adultusersbasedon20YearsofAge+inUSA.18+inallothermarkets
15
T42Markets:Algeria,Argentina,Australia,Bangladesh,Belgium,Brazil,Bulgaria,Canada,Chile,Colombia,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Egypt,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Indonesia,Italy,Japan,Kazakhstan,Malaysia,Mexico,Morocco,Netherlands,NewZealand,Nigeria,Pakistan,Poland,Romania,SaudiArabia,SouthAfrica,SouthKorea,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Taiwan,Turkey,UK,Ukraine,USA,Vietnam
Classified-Confidential
66%
34%
54%
46%
65%
35%
Belief#3THPencouragesmoreswitchingthanvaping
NCConsumers:StillSmokingDailyStoppedSmokingDaily
37%
39%
FACT
63%
61%
Vapour
THP
65%
71%
29%
35%
Vapour*andTHP
areequallyeffective
atencouraging
smokerstoswitch
Vapour
THP
THP
Vapour
61%
63%
64%
39%
37%
36%
Vapour
THP
THP
Vapour
16Source:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022
*VapourincludesDisposablesandrechargeableclosedsystemonly
Classified-Confidential
FACT
MOwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplayasmarketexpansionandtheUSaccelerategrowth
Belief#4ModernOralisaScandinavianphenomenon
MORevenueContribution
1.5
22%
1.1
21%
0.8
19%
52%
50%
25%
31%
27%
53%
2021
2022
2023Est
NordicsUSARoW
17
MOIndustryRevenue,£bnSource:KantarIncidenceStudy2022,BATOutlook
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributortoconsumergrowthandaccelerating
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveatencouragingsmokerstoswitch
4
ModernOralwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplay
18
Implication1
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeightedAverageTarlevels
AMulti-CategoryPortfolioisEssentialtoDeliverourPurpose&Industry
Transition
Classified-Confidential
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributorto
consumergrowthandaccelerating
6
NewCategories(NCs)areoftenagatewaytosmoking
9
NCsareless
profitable
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveat
encouragingsmokerstoswitch
7
Poly-users
tendtosmoke
justasmuch
10
Industryvalueisdecliningwithcigarettesales
4
ModernOralwill
haveacritical
positiveroletoplay
8
NCsareusedequallyacrosscohorts
Theme2:THR
19
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeighted
AverageTarlevels
5
Nicotineisasubstantialcauseofdiseasefromsmoking
Classified-Confidential
FACT
Mostoftheharmfromsmokingiscausedbyproductsofcombustion,notnicotine
UKROYALCOLLEGEOFPHYSICIANS
It’stheotherchemicalcompoundsintobacco,andinthesmokecreatedbysettingtobaccoonfire,thatdirectlyandprimarilycausetheillnessanddeath,
notthenicotineDR.SCOTTGOTTLIEB
USFDACOMMISSIONER(JULY2017)
Nicotineisnot…ahighlyhazardousdrug.
Themainculpritissmokeand,ifnicotinecouldbedeliveredeffectivelyandacceptably…withoutsmoke,most,ifnotall,oftheharmofsmokingcouldprobablybe
avoided
Nicotinewithoutsmoke:Tobaccoharmreduction(2016)
20
Belief#5Nicotineisasubstantialcauseofdisease
fromsmoking
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
FACT
Ingeneral,newadultnicotineconsumersdon’tontosmoke
2.2%
1.8%
1.7%
3.1%
%SolusVapour
Entrants
switchingto
FMC2022
go
%ofadultpopulation
0.1%0.1%0.04%0.05%
Belief#6NewCategoriesareoftenagatewayto
smoking
%SolusVapourEntrantsswitchingtoFMC*
Globally**
2.2%
2.1%
2021
2022
*FactoryMadeCigarettes
21
Source:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022**TopNCMarkets:Canada,Denmark,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,Poland,S.Korea,Sweden,Switzerland,UK–excludingUSA
Classified-Confidential
FACT
Theconsumerjourneyofteninvolvespoly-usagewherecigaretteconsumptionisreduced
Index
92
83
FMC+THPFMC+MO
FMC+Vapour
Belief#7Poly-userstendtosmokejustasmuch
FMC*AverageDailyConsumptionreductionamongPoly-Usersvs.FMCSolus
100
Index
81
Consumptioninleading9NCmarketsinstickEquivalent.
22
*FactoryMadeCigarettesSource:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022
Canada,Denmark,Germany,Italy,Japan,S.Korea,Sweden,UK,USA
“Poly-usage"referencesatransitionalperiodforadultFMCconsumerstowardsacompleteswitchingtoNCsduring
whichadultconsumersreducecigaretteconsumptionandchoosetoaddtoitaconsumptionofoneormoreNCs.
Classified-Confidential
35%22%43%
28%23%49%
22%16%62%
Belief#8NewCategoriesareusedequallyacross
cohorts
Categoryuse-AgeCohorts
2018
2022
FACT
AU3024%23%53%
AU30
30-4421%17%62%
30-44
NCpenetration
correlatesinversely
totheagecohortsof
adultconsumers
AO45
AO4513%13%73%
SolusNC**
DualFMC-NC**SolusFMC*
23
*FactoryMadeCigarettes**NCIncludesSnus“Dual-usage"referencesatransitionalperiodforadultFMCconsumerstowardsacompleteswitchingtoNCsduringwhichadultconsumersreducecigaretteSource:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022
consumptionandchoosetoaddtoitconsumptionofanNC.AU30:Adultconsumerfromminimumlegalageto30yrs.AO45:Adultconsumerover45yrs.Canada,Italy,Japan,UK,Sweden
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributortoconsumergrowthandaccelerating
6
Ingeneral,newadultnicotineconsumersdon’tgoontosmoke
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveatencouragingsmokerstoswitch
7
4
ModernOralwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplay
8
Cigaretteconsumptionisdecliningwith
poly-usage
NCpenetrationcorrelatesinverselytotheagecohortsofadultconsumers
TobaccoHarmReductionisabonafidecorporateandsocietalgoal
24
Implication2
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeightedAverageTarlevels
5
Mostoftheharmfromsmokingiscausedbyproductsofcombustion,notnicotine
Classified-Confidential
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeightedAverageTarlevels
5
Mostoftheharmfromsmokingiscausedby
productsofcombustion,
notnicotine
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveatencouragingsmokerstoswitch
7
4
ModernOralwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplay
8
Cigaretteconsumptionisdecliningwithpoly-
usage
10
Industryvalueis
decliningwith
cigarettesales
NCpenetrationcorrelatesinverselyto
theagecohortsofadultconsumers
25
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributortoconsumergrowthandaccelerating
6
Ingeneral,newadultnicotineconsumers
don’tgoontosmoke
9
NCsareless
profitable
Theme3:IndustryValue
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
FACT
NCsarealreadypositiveatGrossMarginlevelinalmostallCategories
**EuropeAvg.
*WorldAvg.*Worldexcl.USAvg.
Belief#9NewCategoriesarelessprofitable
AnnualConsumerProfitabilityIndex
VAPOURRechargeable
VAPOURDisposable
>120SolusFMC?
<80SolusFMC
80-120SolusFMC
Source:BATdata:IndexedNCGrossMarginperconsumerperannumvsFMC
*WorldAveragebasedonTop17NCmarketsaccountingfor~85%ofWorld’sNCsrevenue,basedonBATinternalest..
26
**EuropeTop12EuropeanNCMarketsaccountingfor~85%oftotalEurope’sNCrevenue,basedonBATinternalest.?FactoryMadeCigarettes-GMsperunitbasedonBATinternalestimates:FMCValueformoney(2023@‘22FXrates);Users&AvgdailyconsumptiondatabasedonNCTrack,NCusers.-AnnualGrossMargin(excl.MarketingInvestmentinrevenue&Royalties)peruserGroup
Classified-Confidential
£12bn
£43bn
Belief#10Industryvalueisdecliningwithcigarette
sales
T10IndustryValuevsFMCVolume
654bn
FMC**
VOLUME
FACT
Totalnicotinerevenueisgrowingyear-on-yearwithNewCategoriesdrivingvalueaccretion
613bn
570bn
-6.3
%CAGR
£8bn
£10bn
INDUSTRY
VALUE
£43bn
£43bn
+3.4
%CAGR
2021
FMC**Volume
2022
NCValue(Rev*)
2023Est
FMCValue(Rev*)
27
*Revenue**FactoryMadeCigarettesSource:BATOutlook
USA,UK,Germany,Canada,Japan,Switzerland,Italy,Denmark,Poland,SouthKorea,France,Sweden
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributortoconsumergrowthandaccelerating
6
Ingeneral,newadultnicotineconsumersdon’tgoontosmoke
9
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveatencouragingsmokerstoswitch
7
4
ModernOralwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplay
8
Cigaretteconsumptionisdecliningwith
poly-usage
NCpenetrationcorrelatesinverselytotheagecohortsofadultconsumers
10
Totalnicotinerevenueisgrowingyear-on-yearwithNCsdrivingvalueaccretion
28
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeightedAverageTarlevels
5
Mostoftheharmfromsmokingiscausedbyproductsofcombustion,notnicotine
10Facts
NCsarealreadypositiveatgrossmarginlevelinalmostallCategories
Classified-Confidential
29
Today’sThemes
3
NewCategory
Productsare
ValueAccretive
1
AMulti-CategoryPortfoliois
Essential
2
TobaccoHarm
Reductionisajourney
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
Belief#11Japanisthe‘bellwether’transformation
story
SwedenFMC*Incidence2008-2022
14.3%
13.4%
11.8%
11.3%
10.0%
9.0%
6.9%
5.9%
Swedenhas
successfullydelivereda
multi-decadeTobacco
HarmReductionpolicy
200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
30
*
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