Morgan Stanley Fixed-metalROCK Whats going on with Aluminium-103316598-此為英文文檔

Idea

August7,202309:25AMGMT

metal&ROCK|Europe

What'sgoingonwith

Aluminium?

AluminiumhaditsstrongestmonthsinceJanuaryinJuly,despitesoftfundamentals.GlobalproductionhitarecordhighinJune,annualising70.3mtpa,andex-Chinademandmessagingremainslacklustre.Isbadnewspricedinbynow?

PricevsFundamentals:Julysawaluminium'sstrongestpriceperformancesinceJanuary,up6.1%MoM,ashopesofChinastimulusandearlysignsofsofteningUSinflationprovidedsupporttothemetalscomplex.However,thefundamentalsaregivingadifferentsignal.GlobalaluminiumoutputreachedarecordhighinJune,asChinaoutputjumped4.5%MoM.Ex-Chinademandheadlineshaven'tbeenpositiveeither,withtheNorskHydroCFOsayinganalystswere"toooptimistic"ondemand(Bloomberg).Ifthiscan'tpushpriceslower,shouldwebeaskingwhatwill?Forthenextmonthortwo,weprefertositonthesidelines,asthemarketdigeststhiselevatedproductionfromChina,butwedoseeupsideintowinterifChinacurtailmentsreturnanddestockingcomestoanend.MSe$2350/tforQ423.

Aluminiumoutputsoaring:AddingChinaandIAIdata,globalaluminiumoutputreachedarecordhighof70.3mtpaannualisedinJune(Exhibit2).Chinacontributed95%oftheMoMincrease,risingtoarecordhighof42mtannualised,drivenbyreboundsinYunnanandShandonginparticular.InYunnan,seasonalimprovementsinhydropowerdroverestarts,whilesmeltermarginshavealsobeenhealthy.However,wedoexpecthydro-relatedcurtailmentstoreturnwiththedryseasonthiswinter,whichcouldtightensupplyagain.Canthisbeabsorbed?TheChinesealuminiummarkethasbeenrelativelytightsofar,withexportsdown~20%YTD.Ontop,likecopper,China'sapparentconsumptionofaluminiumlookshealthy,up8%YTDonournumbers(Exhibit6).End-usedemandtrackingindicatorslookgoodtoo(Exhibit7).Fornow,China'saluminiumexportarbremainscloseto0(Exhibit4),butgiventhejumpinoutput,moreChinesematerialmaybegintofinditswayoutintoaRoWmarketthatfeelsquitechallenging.InitsQ2resultspresentation,NorskHydrohighlightedextrusionsvolumesdown13%YoYinQ2'23,ledbydistribution,buildingandconstructionandindustrial,partlyoffsetbystrongerautomotive.Thiscouldkeeppricessubduedfornow,especiallyasdestockingcontinues.Whereiscostsupport?Apartfromabriefdipintothe$2100sinearlyJuly,$2,200/tseemstohavebeenafloorforaluminiumthisyear.AccordingtoWoodmac,thisisaroundthe90thpercentileofthecostcurve,withaluminiumandaluminatheonlymetalstradingintheircostcurvesatthemoment.WeseelittleriskofsmeltersrestartinginEuropeatcurrentprices,andseeupsiderisksforbothcoalandgaspricesintowinter.IfthisiscombinedwiththereturnofChinasmeltercurtailmentsandtheendofdestocking,wecouldseeupsideahead.

MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+

AmyGower(AmySergeant),CFA

CommoditiesStrategist

+44207677-6937

Amy.Sergeant@

WalidHasanzadeh

ResearchAssociate

+44207425-1191

Walid.Hasanzadeh@

MartijnRats,CFA

+44207425-6618

EquityAnalystandCommoditiesStrategist

Martijn.Rats@

Exhibit1:AluminiumoutputreachedarecordhighgloballyinJune,drivenbyChinawithgrowthinNorthandSouthAmericatoo

195DailyGlobalAluminiumProduction(kt/day)

190

185

180

175

170

Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23

Source:IAI,ChinaNBS,MorganStanleyResearch

Alsosee:

CommodityMatters:IronOre:ChinaSteelCutsComing

CommodityMatters:Nickel'sSupplyShiftsmetal&ROCK:CopperinLimbo

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

Wind

Investment*

EVoutput*

Property

Completions

Airconditioner

Output

GridSpend

WashingMachine

Output

Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23-10%

Idea

Exhibit2:Adjustingfordaycount,China'saluminiumoutputreachedarecordhighinJune

ChinaAluminiumProduction(annualisedkt)

43,000

41,000

39,000

37,000

35,000

33,000

Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23

Source:Antaike

Exhibit4:TheLME-SHFEexportarbhasnotreallybeenincentivisingexports…

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

Mar-22

May-

22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

SHFELMEdiff.(rhs)

250

150

50

-50

-150

-250

-350

-450

-550

-650

moreimports,lessexports

Source:Bloomberg

Exhibit6:Chinaapparentconsumptionlookshealthy,albeitfromeasycomps

ChinaAluminiumApparentConsumption(YoY%)

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-20%

Source:Bloomberg.Apparentconsumptionusesproduction,netimports(incsemis)andstockchange.

Exhibit3:AllregionssawaMoMstepupinproductioninJune,withShandongandYunnanthelargestcontributorstothegrowth

ChinaAluminiumProductionbyRegion(ktpm)

120

OtherInnerMongoliaShandongYunnan

100

80

60

40

Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23

Source:Antaike

Exhibit5:...whichhaskeptChina'sexportssubduedsofar

500ChinaNetAluminiumExports(ktpm)

400

300

200

100

0

-100NetImports

-200Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23

Source:Bloomberg.Exportsincludessemis.

Exhibit7:China'sdemandindicatorsalsolookverypositive

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

ChinaDemandIndicatorsYTD(%YOY)

YoYYTDVs1H19

Source:Bloomberg

MorganStanleyResearch3

Idea

WeekinReview

BaseMetals:Basemetalpricesmovedlowerasglobaleconomicdataweighedoninvestorsentiment.LastMonday,China'smanufacturingPMIremainedincontractionterritory,reflectingsubdueddemandinChina.Meanwhile,USjobsdatacontinuedtobestrongforJuly,withunemploymentdecliningto3.5%inJuly,indicativeofatightlabourmarket,weighingonmetalspricesastheUSDstrengthened.Theworstperformerlastweekwasnickel,down3%ontheweek,asprospectsofChineseproducerslookingtolistontheLMEadverselyaffectedsentiment.Thebestperformerwaszinc,up1%WoW.

PreciousMetals:PreciousmetalswereunderpressurelastweekasUSjobsdatashowedsolidwagegainsandadeclineinunemployment,reflectingastronglabourmarket.Asaresult,theUSDand10yrtreasuryyieldsstrengthened,despitetheUSdebtratingdowngrade.Theworstperformerlastweekwasplatinum,down4%ontheweek,whilegoldhelduprelativelybetter,onlydown2%WoW.

Bulks:Ironorefellto$104/tlastweek,afterweakChinaPMIsandslowingsteelproductionweighedondemand.AccordingtoMySteel,CISAmembermillcrudesteeloutputfell5%inlateJulyvsmid-July,withChinesefinishedsteelinventoriesattheirlowestlevelsinceDecember.Furthermore,inthelastweeksteelmillsinmajorregionsincludingYunnanreceivedflatYoYoutputcontroltargets.Elsewhere,Australia'shardcokingcoalpricerebounded,endingtheweekat$246/t,whiletheNewcastlethermalcoalpricetickedhigherto$137/t.TheNorthwestEuropean(ARA)thermalcoalmovedhigher,endingtheweekat$112/t.

Exhibit8:Basemetalspriceindices(12-monthrolling)

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

Aug-22

Sep-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

zinclead

aluminiumnickel

copper

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit9:Preciousmetalsindices

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

Mar-22

May-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

palladium

platinum

silver

gold

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit10:Bulkcommoditypriceindices(12-monthrolling)

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Aug-22

Sep-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

ironoremet-coalthermalcoal

alltradedcoals(wtgavg)

Source:Platts,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

4

BaseMetals

Idea

MorganStanleyPriceForecasts

Exhibit11:SummaryofMorganStanley'scommoditypriceforecasts(seton21June2023)

commoditygroupunit1Q23a2Q23e3Q23e4Q23e1Q24e2Q24e3Q24e4Q24e2022a2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028eLTrealLTnom.

Aluminium

US$/lbUS$/t

1.092,400

1.042,290

1.012,225

1.072,350

1.07

2,350

1.072,350

1.042,300

1.092,400

1.252,756

1.05

2,316

1.072,350

1.132,488

1.222,700

1.272,800

1.322,900

1.152,525

1.292,849

Copper

US$/lbUS$/t

4.058,932

3.848,470

3.928,650

3.768,300

3.67

8,100

3.798,350

3.868,500

4.089,000

4.028,871

3.90

8,588

3.858,488

4.089,000

4.089,000

4.089,000

4.089,000

3.427,540

3.868,507

Nickel

US$/lbUS$/t

11.8126,033

10.1222,300

9.3020,500

9.0720,000

8.85

19,500

8.8519,500

8.6219,000

8.6219,000

12.5227,598

10.07

22,208

8.7319,250

8.4518,625

8.6219,000

9.0720,000

9.3920,700

8.1618,000

9.2120,309

Zinc

US$/lbUS$/t

1.423,130

1.132,500

1.132,500

1.132,500

1.13

2,500

1.132,500

1.132,500

1.132,500

1.603,518

1.21

2,657

1.132,500

1.222,700

1.272,800

1.322,900

1.342,950

1.152,535

1.302,861

Lead

US$/lbUS$/t

0.972,140

0.952,100

0.932,050

0.912,000

0.91

2,000

0.912,000

0.912,000

0.912,000

0.982,158

0.94

2,072

0.912,000

0.912,000

0.952,094

1.002,205

1.052,315

0.972,138

1.092,413

PreciousMetals

Gold

US$/oz

1,889

1,990

2,000

2,075

2,100

2,100

2,050

1,950

1,816

1,988

2,050

1,688

1,600

1,600

1,600

1,355

1,529

Silver

US$/oz

22.6

24.6

23.3

24.4

25.3

26.3

26.3

25.3

22.0

23.7

25.8

23.7

22.9

22.9

22.9

20.8

23.5

Platinum

US$/oz

1,003

1,050

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

974

1,051

1,225

1,400

1,443

1,472

1,501

1,300

1,467

Palladium

US$/oz

1,580

1,460

1,400

1,400

1,300

1,300

1,200

1,200

2,175

1,460

1,250

1,100

1,000

1,125

1,325

1,300

1,467

Bulks

IronOre(fines62%Fe,cfrN.China)

US$/t

126

110

90

90

100

80

75

75

120

104

83

78

75

80

85

75

85

HardCokingCoal(spot,fobAus)

US$/t

343

240

200

230

250

225

200

200

367

253

219

183

180

190

200

170

192

Thermalcoal(spot,fobNewc)

US$/t

253

160

120

150

140

120

110

130

357

171

125

103

100

105

110

100

113

Other

Manganeseore(44%)

US$/mtu

5.7

4.8

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

6.1

5.1

4.7

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.5

4.8

5.4

Alumina(spot,fobAus)

US$/t

360

344

330

325

325

320

320

320

376

340

321

320

340

370

400

345

389

Lithiumcarbonate(spotChina,ex-VAT)

US$/t

53,115

31,000

40,000

35,000

25,000

20,000

17,500

17,500

63,846

39,779

20,000

15,000

15,000

15,000

14,000

12,000

13,539

Cobalt

US$/lb

17.6

15.0

14.5

15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

21.0

31.0

15.5

19.5

21.0

22.0

23.0

23.0

20.0

22.6

Uranium-spot

US$/lb

50.3

53.5

60.0

60.0

62.0

60.0

60.0

60.0

49.5

55.9

60.5

48.8

45.0

47.5

50.0

43.0

48.5

ExchangeRates

1AUD=USD

0.68

0.67

0.69

0.70

0.71

0.72

0.74

0.74

0.70

0.69

0.73

0.75

0.75

0.75

0.72

0.74

0.72

1USD=BRL

5.19

5.07

5.13

5.20

5.26

5.30

5.32

5.34

5.11

5.15

5.31

5.40

5.48

5.57

5.66

5.18

5.72

1USD=CAD

1.35

1.35

1.35

1.34

1.34

1.34

1.33

1.33

1.30

1.35

1.33

1.32

1.31

1.29

1.28

1.26

1.28

1USD=ZAR

17.74

18.78

18.75

18.90

18.95

19.00

19.05

19.09

16.30

18.54

19.02

19.22

19.41

19.60

20.19

16.20

21.07

1EUR=USD

1.07

1.08

1.09

1.10

1.10

1.11

1.12

1.12

1.05

1.09

1.11

1.14

1.16

1.19

1.22

1.23

1.23

1USD=CNY

6.84

6.82

6.79

6.76

6.73

6.71

6.68

6.65

6.73

6.80

6.69

6.58

6.47

6.36

6.25

6.48

6.45

Source:LME,Bloomberg,Platts,MorganStanleyResearchestimates(e).Note:ExchangerateforecastsaretheassumptionsthatarecompiledandusedbyGlobalResourcesEquityTeam;allpricesarenominal,unlessotherwiseindicated.

MorganStanleyResearch5

Idea

CommodityThermometer

Exhibit12:Metals&MiningCommodityThermometer

Thesis

RatingCommodityBearishNeutralBullish

5

Thermalcoal

n

n

n

n

n

Weseefurthernear-termdownsidetocoalfrompotentiallyslowingimportdemandfromChina.However,goingintowinter,whenEurope'spassespeakgasstoragebyOctober,wecanseemorepricesupportemerging,especiallywhencurrentcoalinventoriesareworkedofffurther

4

Uranium

n

n

n

n

Wecontinuetoseeasupportivesupply-demandbackdrop,withmodestpriceupside,especiallywhentakingthepotentialaddeddemandfromenrichmentoverfeedingintoaccount.

4

Manganeseore

n

n

n

n

Weseeabalancedmarketformanganese,butwithriskofsupplydisruptionsandlowinventorieskeepingrisksskewedtotheupside.

4

Platinum

n

n

n

n

Wecontinuetopreferplatinumoverpalladium,withthemarketmovingintodeficitasdemandgainsfromsubstitutionmeetsupplyconstraintsandpositivenetinvestment.

4

Cobalt

n

n

n

n

WithCMOC'sstockpilemakingitswaythroughthesupplychain,wearepossiblyatpeaksupplypressurenow.Webelievethatmostoftheseheadwindsareinthepricenow,andweareexpectingthepricetostabilise.

4

Aluminium

n

n

n

n

Westillseeroomforaluminiumtorallyintothewinter,withChinacontinuingtofacepowerchallenges,andourbalanceshowingaFYdeficit.However,withthecostcurvecomingdown,webringdownourtarget.

4

Gold

n

n

n

n

Goldshouldstillbeseeingmacrotailwindsahead,butthesewillplayoutonalongertimeframethanwepreviouslyanticipated,withtherecentreboundinyieldsandourFXcallforastrongerUSDlikelytobechallengingnearterm.Centralbankbuyingcontinues,butETFholdingsarestillnearthelow.

4

Zinc

n

n

n

n

Zinchasrecentlyfoundapainpointaroundthe90thpercentileofthecostcurve,drivingonemineclosure.Thisshouldprovideafloorforprices,butthedemandoutlookisstillchallengingfornow.

4

Hardcokingcoal

n

n

n

n

Althoughhealthydemandremainsaprerequisite,themet-coalmarketcontinuestoberuledbytheseverityofitssupplydisruptions.Weexpectthatcontinuedsupplyconstraintsplusgrowingdemandcankeepthemarketfairlytightandprice>$200/tthrough2023.

4

Silver

n

n

n

n

Weseeupsidetosilveralsopushedoutasmacrotailwindstakelongertocomethrough.LittlesignofETFinflowssofar.

4

Palladium

n

n

n

n

Weseeashrinkingdeficitin2023,beforeasurplusin2024drivenbysubstitution,BEVpenetrationandimprovingrecycledvolumes,weightedtowardspalladium.

3

Copper

n

n

n

WemaintainatacticalbullishviewoncopperasChinastimulusheadlinescomethroughandapparentconsumptionindicatorsremainstrong.However,risingsupplyshouldweighonpricebyyearend/1Q24.

3

Alumina

n

n

n

Weseealuminapricestrendingmodestlylowerfromhere–significantnewcapacityisstartingupinChinathatshouldpushthemarketintosurplus,whileinputcostsarefallingaswell,weighingonthecostcurve

3

Lead

n

n

n

Leadhasseenastrongperformanceduringtherecentweaknessinbasemetals,highlightingitslesscyclicalnature.However,weseelimitedfurtherupsidefromhere,withseasonallyweakerbatterydemandintothesummermonths.

3

Nickel

Lithiumcarbonate

n

n

n

WithChina'srefinedmetalnickelimportsquicklydryingup,moreclass1metalisbecomingavailablefortheWesternmarket.Wecontinuetoexpectcurrentproductdifferentialstodriveconversionintoclass1metal,whichwillalsomakeitswayintoLMEwarehouses,bringingtheLMEpricemoreinlinewithothernickelproducts.

n

n

n

Webelievethatmostofthepricereboundisnowdone.Weseeamarketthatwillbemodestlytighttobalancedfortheremainderof2023.Supplyfromnewprojectscouldputrenewedpressureonpriceintoyear-end.

3

2

Ironore

n

n

Weseecurrentrenewedironorepricestrengthasunsustainableandexpectfundamentalstotakeholdagain.DespiteChina'sstimulusmeasures,westillexpectanoversuppliedmarketin2H23,andseethepricereconnectingwithunderlyingfundamentals.

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.Note:OrderofpreferencebasedonMSe4Q23vsaveragepricesfortwoweeksending21June2023.

6

Date

Idea

RecentReports+UpcomingEvents

RecentResearch

CommodityMatters:IronOre:ChinaSteelCutsComing

CommodityMatters:Nickel'sSupplyShifts

metal&ROCK:CopperinLimbo

metal&ROCK:IronOre'sSeasonalShifts

metal&ROCK:Lithium:AftertheBounce

metal&ROCK:Gold:2011Parallels?

metal&ROCK:ThePriceDeck–3Q23:What'sinthePrice?

metal&ROCK:Nickel'srapidlyevolvingmarket

ChinaMaterials:MayTradeData–MomentuminSteelExports&CoalImportsRemained;CopperImportsRoseMoMmetal&ROCK:Copper:Risk-RewardImproving?

IndonesiaCoal:Trends,Valuations,andOutlook

metal&ROCK:Thermalcoal'spricefloor

CommodityMatters:TheG7andRussianMetal

metal&ROCK:BaseMetalsDebates

ChinaMaterials:AprTradeData–ElevatedSteelExports&CoalImports;SlightlyWeakerAliExports

CommodityMatters:Lithiumlookingup

metal&ROCK:IronOre–BearishSignalsPrevail

metal&ROCK:Cobalt'sgloom

metal&ROCK:Metallurgicalcoal'ssupplyissues

CommodityMatters:AluminiumSupplyTightening:China+Norway

metal&ROCK:WhatHappenstoBaseMetalsDemandinaUSrecession?

CommodityMatters:Lithiumconverters'pain

metal&ROCK:ThePriceDeck–2Q23:SafeHaven

24-Jul-23

24-Jul-23

21-Jul-23

07-Jul-23

30-Jun-23

23-Jun-23

21-Jun-23

12-Jun-23

07-Jun-23

26-May-23

23-May-23

22-May-23

19-May-23

15-May-23

09-May-23

05-May-23

03-May-23

25-Apr-23

18-Apr-23

18-Apr-23

11-Apr-23

06-Apr-23

29-Mar-23

MorganStanleyResearch7

+45%+44%

Idea

Exhibit13:Spotcommoditypricesvs.themarginalcostofproduction

90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

-10%-20%

+80%

+58%

+49%

+42%

+36%

+17%

+8%

-2%

-8%

GoldCopperThermalLeadIronoreHardcokingBauxiteZincNickelAluminiumAlumina

coalcoal

Source:WoodMackenzie,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marginalcost(year2023);datasetQ22023;C1cashcosts.

Idea

8

CommodityPriceSnapshot

Exhibit14:Keymetals:one-weekabsoluteperformance,27-Jul-23to03-Aug-23

ZincAluminium Copper Cobalt LeadNickel

Tin

CokingCoalIronOre,62%CFR ThermalCoal PalladiumRhodium

Gold

Platinum SilverMolybdenum(Fut)ChinaLiCarbonateChinaLiHydroxide

ChinaSpodumene

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

-3%

-1%

-1%

-5%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-2%

4%

-5%

-4%

-8%

Exhibit16:

BaseMetals:price

Exhibit15:Keymetals:YTDabsoluteperformance,through03-Aug-23

Tin CopperAluminium

Lead ZincNickelCobalt

IronOre,62%CFR CokingCoalThermalCoalGold

Silver

Platinum Palladium RhodiumMolybdenum(Fut)ChinaLiCarbonateChinaLiHydroxideChinaSpodumene

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

13%2%

-7%

-8%

-17%

-28%

-36%

-5%

-21%

-25%

6%

-2%

-15%

-30%

-67%

-22%

-51%

-53%

-38%

snapshot

BaseMetals

03-Aug-23

27-Jul-23

WoWChange(%)

Copper

3.89

3.87

0.5%

Aluminium

0.99

0.98

0.9%

Zinc

1.13

1.11

1.3%

Nickel

9.69

9.73

-0.4%

Lead

0.98

0.98

-0.3%

Tin

12.68

13.07

-3.0%

Cobalt

14.96

14.96

0.0%

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;WoW=Weekonweek

MorganStanleyResearch9

03-Aug-23

03-Aug-23

Idea

Exhibit17:Bulks:pricesnapshot

Bulks

03-Aug-23

27-Jul-23

WoWChange(%)

IronOre,62%CFR

111.9

113.5

-1.5%

ThermalCoal

81.2

85.3

-4.8%

CokingCoal

234.0

236.0

-0.8%

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;WoW=Weekonweek

Exhibit18:PreciousMetalsandPGMs:pricesnapshot

PreciousMetalsand

PGMs

03-Aug-23

27-Jul-23

WoWChange(%)

Gold

1,934

1,946

-0.6%

Silver

23.57

24.14

-2.3%

Platinum

918

938

-2.1%

Palladium

1,258

1,244

1.1%

Rhodium

4,100

4,100

0.0%

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;WoW=Weekonweek

Exhibit19:OtherMetals:pricesnapshot

Other

27-Jul-23

WoWChange(%)

Molybdenum,LME

Cash(US$/lb)

ChinaLithiumCarbonate99.5%Ex-VAT(US$/t)

ChinaLithiumHydroxide56.5%Ex-VAT(US$/t)

ChinaSpodumene5%minCIFEx-VAT(US$/t)

23.8

31,802.9

30,360.0

3,198.3

22.8

33,376.2

31,572.1

3,482.8

4.2%

-4.7%

-3.8%

-8.2%

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;WoW=Weekonweek

Exhibit20:Exchangeratesnapshotofmajormetal-producingcountries

FXRatesofKeyCommodity

Countries

27-Jul-23

WoWChange(%)

1

AUD=USD(Australian$)

0.66

0.67

-2.4%

1

EUR=USD(Euro)

1.09

1.10

-0.3%

1

USD=BRL(BrazilianReal)

4.92

4.74

3.6%

1

USD=CAD(Canadian$)

1.34

1.32

1.0%

1

USD=CLP(ChileanPeso)

851

830

2.6%

1

USD=CNY(ChineseRenmimbi)

7.17

7.17

0.0%

1

USD=KZT(KazakhTenge)

445

445

0.1%

1

USD=MXN(MexicanPeso)

17.33

16.87

2.7%

1

USD=NOK(NorwegianKrone)

10.24

10.19

0.5%

10

Idea

1

USD=PEN(PeruvianNewSol)

3.70

3.60

2.9%

1

USD=SEK(SwedishKrona)

10.69

10.52

1.6%

1

USD=ZAR(S.AfricanRand)

18.71

17.84

4.9%

1

USD=ZMW(ZambianKwacha)

19.33

18.50

4.5%

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;WoW=Weekonweek

MorganStanleyResearch11

YoY

13

13

14

14

15

15

16

16

17

17

18

18

19

19

20

20

21

21

22

22

23

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

YoY

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22

May-23

YoY

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21

May-22

Nov-22

May-23

YoY

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

45%

35%

25%

15%

5%

-5%

Idea

China'sMacroIndicators

Exhibit21:China'selectricitygeneration

ChinaElectricityGenerationYoY

#N/A

-15%

Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit23:China'sM2moneysupply

18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%

%yoy

Jul-12

Jun-13

May-14

Apr-15

Mar-16

Feb-17

Jan-18

Dec-18

Nov-19

Oct-20

Sep-21

Aug-22

Jul-23

MoneySupplyM2(%YoY)

Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit25:China'sInfrastructureFixedAssetInvestments(FAI)

ChinaInfrastructureFAI

2.8%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

Exhibit22:China'sPurchasingManagersIndexandIndustrialProduction(IP)

60

55

50

45

40

35

PMI

ChinaPMIvs.IP

ChinaPMI(lhs)

ChinaIP(rhs)

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit24:China'smachinerysales

ChinaMachinerySales

200%

#N/A

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit26:China'slandsales

130%

ChinaLandSales

100%

70%

40%

10%

-20%

-50%

-80%

Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearchSource:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearch.NotedataunavailablesinceDec2022.

12

YoY

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

YoY

14

14

15

15

16

16

17

17

18

18

19

19

20

20

21

21

22

22

23

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

yoy%

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

M