經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)與出口管理

經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)與出口管理第一頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一主要內(nèi)容預(yù)測(cè)的意義與預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)的選擇時(shí)間序列分析平滑技術(shù)定性預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型進(jìn)出口銷售與匯率外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理與匯率決定因素購(gòu)買(mǎi)力平價(jià)國(guó)際貿(mào)易：管理視角第二頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一經(jīng)濟(jì)分析與決策

需求分析生產(chǎn)和成本分析產(chǎn)品、定價(jià)和產(chǎn)出量決策資本支出分析經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治與社會(huì)環(huán)境經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況（趨勢(shì)、周期和季節(jié)性影響）要素市場(chǎng)狀況（資本、勞動(dòng)和原材料）競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者反應(yīng)與策略性反應(yīng)組織架構(gòu)與規(guī)則限制現(xiàn)金流量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)廠商價(jià)值（股東的財(cái)富）第三頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一案例4-1—GlobalCrossing公司過(guò)剩的光纖傳輸能力美國(guó)光纖網(wǎng)絡(luò)傳輸高速數(shù)據(jù)和聲音信號(hào)的能力大大超出了電信需求，現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)能的97%閑置。紐約和洛杉磯之間輸送1兆B價(jià)格1995每年12000美元——2001下降到3000美元——2003年下降到1200美元。信號(hào)壓縮技術(shù)導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)能超過(guò)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)。100天翻一番。對(duì)電信傳輸量增長(zhǎng)過(guò)度樂(lè)觀。2003年1000%——40%?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)的滲透呈現(xiàn)S形。第四頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一第五頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一一、預(yù)測(cè)的意義與預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)選擇管理活動(dòng)的核心問(wèn)題——預(yù)測(cè)產(chǎn)品的未來(lái)需求、產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)成本、銷售產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格。宏觀預(yù)測(cè)與廠商預(yù)測(cè)。預(yù)測(cè)是困難的。兩種重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)：定量預(yù)測(cè)——8%，給定精確的數(shù)據(jù)或比率。定性預(yù)測(cè)——方向與趨勢(shì)。第六頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一一、預(yù)測(cè)的意義與預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)選擇預(yù)測(cè)的最大意義在于對(duì)未來(lái)不確定性進(jìn)行某種程度的確定，從而制定發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。減少不確定而不能消除不確定。預(yù)測(cè)的層次：國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)。GDP及其部分；利率；通貨膨脹率。產(chǎn)業(yè)預(yù)測(cè)。汽車(chē)制造業(yè)。企業(yè)預(yù)測(cè)。福特公司。產(chǎn)品預(yù)測(cè)。FOCUS。第七頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一一、預(yù)測(cè)的意義與預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)選擇選擇預(yù)測(cè)方法的準(zhǔn)則：costsoftheforecastingmethodcomparedwithitsgainscomplexityoftherelationshipsamongvariablestimeperiodinvolvedaccuracyneededinforecastleadtimebetweenreceivinginformationandthedecisiontobemade。第八頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一一、預(yù)測(cè)的意義與預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)選擇預(yù)測(cè)的精確性：分析被觀察值與預(yù)測(cè)值之間區(qū)別的大小。不同的指標(biāo)衡量模型的精確性。如可決系數(shù)R2。常用的平均預(yù)測(cè)誤差RMSE，越小準(zhǔn)確性越高?？蛇x擇的預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)：確定性時(shí)間技術(shù)、平滑技術(shù)、氣壓技術(shù)、調(diào)查與民意測(cè)驗(yàn)技術(shù)、計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型、隨機(jī)性時(shí)間技術(shù)、投入產(chǎn)出表預(yù)測(cè)方法。第九頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一二、時(shí)間系列分析主要有三種類型的數(shù)據(jù)：時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)。橫截面數(shù)據(jù)。面板數(shù)據(jù)（PannelData）。時(shí)間系列數(shù)據(jù)分為四部分：長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)+周期變動(dòng)+季節(jié)效應(yīng)+隨機(jī)波動(dòng)。第十頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一TIME

ToXXXDependentVariableSecularTrendCyclicalVariationForecastedAmountsThedatamayofferseculartrends,cyclicalvariations,seasonalvariations,andrandomfluctuations.第十一頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一二、時(shí)間系列分析基本的時(shí)間系列模型：最簡(jiǎn)單的時(shí)間系列模型，下期與本期一樣。調(diào)整。長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)。圖5-3。季節(jié)變動(dòng)。第十二頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一NaiveForecastYt+1=YtMethodbestwhenthereisnotrend,onlyrandomerrorGraphsofsalesovertimewithandwithouttrendsWhentrendingdown,theNa?vepredictstoohighNOTrendTrend^timetime第十三頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一2.Na?veforecastwithadjustmentsforseculartrendsYt+1=Yt+(Yt-Yt-1)Thisequationbeginswithlastperiod’sforecast,Yt.Plusan‘a(chǎn)djustment’forthechangeintheamountbetweenperiodsYtandYt-1.Whentheforecastistrendingup,thisadjustmentworksbetterthanthepurena?veforecastmethod.

^第十四頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一UsedwhentrendhasaconstantAMOUNTofchange

Yt=a+b?T,where

Yt

aretheactualobservationsand

Tisanumericaltimevariable案例4-2——冰淇淋UsedwhentrendisaconstantPERCENTAGErate LogYt=a+b?T,

wherebisthecontinuouslycompoundedgrowthrate⑴LinearTrendGrowth⑵UsesaSemi-logRegression3.長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)^^^第十五頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一Suppose:Yt=Y0(1+G)t

wheregistheannualgrowthrateTakethenaturallogofbothsides:LnYt=LnY0+t?Ln(1+G)butLn(1+G)g,theequivalentcontinuouslycompoundedgrowthrateSO:LnYt=LnY0+t?g

LnYt=a

+b

?t

wherebisthegrowthrate

^

^第十六頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一NumericalExamples:6observationsMTB>Printc1-c3.SalesTimeLn-sales100.014.60517109.824.69866121.634.80074133.744.89560146.254.98498164.365.10169Usingthissalesdata,estimatesalesinperiod7usingalinearandasemi-logfunctionalform第十七頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一TheregressionequationisSales=85.0+12.7TimePredictorCoefStdevt-ratiopConstant84.9872.41735.160.000Time12.65140.620720.380.000s=2.596R-sq=99.0%R-sq(adj)=98.8%TheregressionequationisLn-sales=4.50+0.0982TimePredictorCoefStdevt-ratiopConstant4.504160.00642701.350.000Time0.0981830.00164959.540.000s=0.006899R-sq=99.9%R-sq(adj)=99.9%第十八頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一ForecastedSales@Time=7LinearModelSales=85.0+12.7TimeSales=85.0+12.7(7)Sales=173.9Semi-LogModelLn-sales=4.50+0.0982TimeLn-sales=4.50+0.0982

(7)Ln-sales=5.1874Toanti-log:e5.1874=179.0linear第十九頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一SalesTimeLn-sales100.014.60517109.824.69866121.634.80074133.744.89560146.254.98498164.365.10169179.0 7semi-log173.9 7linearWhichpredictiondoyouprefer?Semi-logisexponential7第二十頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一⑶

DecliningRateofGrowthTrendAnumberofmarketingpenetrationmodelsuseaslightmodificationoftheconstantrateofgrowthmodelInthisform,theinverseoftimeisused

LnYt=b1

–

b2(1/t)Thisformisgoodforpatterns liketheonetotherightItgrows,butatcontinuouslyadecliningratetimeY第二十一頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一4.SeasonalAdjustments:

TheRatiotoTrendMethodTakeratiosoftheactualtotheforecastedvaluesforpastyears.Findtheaverageratio.Thisistheseasonaladjustment

AdjustbythispercentagebymultiplyyourforecastbytheseasonaladjustmentIfaverageratiois1.02,adjustforecastupward2%。調(diào)整因子12quartersofdataIIIIIIIVIIIIIIIVIIIIIIIVQuartersdesignatedwithromannumerals.第二十二頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一LetD=1,if4thquarterand0otherwiseRunanewregression:Yt=a+b?T+c?Dthe“c”coefficientgivestheamountoftheadjustmentforthefourthquarter.ItisanInterceptShifter.With4quarters,therecanbeasmanyasthreedummyvariables;with12months,therecanbeasmanyas11dummyvariablesEXAMPLE:Sales=300+10?T+18?D

12Observationsfromthefirstquarterof2002to2004-IV.

Forecastallof2005.

Sales(2005-I)=430;Sales(2005-II)=440;Sales(2005-III)=450;Sales(2005-IV)=478案例4-3——瑪特公司。5.

SeasonalAdjustments:

DummyVariables第二十三頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一三、平滑技術(shù)時(shí)間系列的一種形式。重復(fù)+隨機(jī)擾動(dòng)。通過(guò)對(duì)過(guò)去觀察值取某種模式的平均數(shù)，力求消除由序列數(shù)據(jù)中隨機(jī)擾動(dòng)而產(chǎn)生的扭曲，使預(yù)測(cè)建立在對(duì)過(guò)去數(shù)次觀察值的一個(gè)平滑的平均數(shù)基礎(chǔ)上。移動(dòng)平均法。季節(jié)變動(dòng)。第二十四頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一

SoothingTechniques

6.MovingAveragesAsmoothingforecastmethodfordatathatjumpsaroundBestwhenthereisnotrend3-PeriodMovingAve.Yt+1=[Yt+Yt-1+Yt-2]/3N的選擇。案例4-4——沃克公司。*****ForecastLineTIMEDependentVariable第二十五頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一SmoothingTechniques

7.First-OrderExponentialSmoothingAhybridoftheNaiveandMovingAveragemethodsYt+1=w?Yt+(1-w)Yt

Aweightedaverageofpastactualandpastforecast.EachforecastisafunctionofallpastobservationsCanshowthatforecastisbasedongeometricallydecliningweights.

Yt+1=w.?Yt+(1-w)?w?Yt-1+ (1-w)2?w?Yt-1+…

FindlowestRMSEtopickthebestalpha.^^^

^第二十六頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一First-OrderExponential

SmoothingExampleforw=.50ActualSales Forecast

100

100 initialseedrequired

120 .5(100)+.5(100)=100 115

130

?

12345第二十七頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一First-OrderExponential

SmoothingExampleforw=.50ActualSales Forecast

100

100 initialseedrequired

120 .5(100)+.5(100)=100 115 .5(120)+.5(100)=110

130

?

12345第二十八頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一ActualSales Forecast

100

100 initialseedrequired

120 .5(100)+.5(100)=100 110 .5(120)+.5(100)=110

130 .5(115)+.5(110)=112.50

?

.5(130)+.5(112.50)=121.25Period5ForecastMSE={(120-100)2+(110-115)2+(130-112.5)2}/3=243.75RMSE=243.75=15.6112345第二十九頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一Directionofsalescanbeindicatedbyothervariables.TIMEIndexofCapitalGoodspeakPEAKMotorControlSales

4MonthsExample:IndexofCapitalGoodsisa“l(fā)eadingindicator”Therearealsolaggingindicatorsandcoincidentindicators

QualitativeForecasting

8.BarometricTechniques

四、定性預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)第三十頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一QualitativeForecasting

9.SurveysandOpinionPollingTechniquesSamplebias--telephone,magazineBiasedquestions--advocacysurveysAmbiguousquestionsRespondentsmaylieonquestionnairesNewProductshavenohistoricaldata--Surveyscanassessinterestinnewideas.SurveyResearchCenterofU.ofMich.doesrepeatsurveysofhouseholdsonBigTicketitems(Autos)CommonSurveyProblems第三十一頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一SpecifythevariablesinthemodelEstimatetheparameterssingleequationorperhapsseveralstagemethodsQd=a+b?P+c?I+d?Ps+e?PcButforecastsrequireestimatesforfutureprices,futureincome,etc.Oftencombineeconometricmodelswithtimeseriesestimatesoftheindependentvariable.五、經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量模型（11）第三十二頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一12.StochasticTimeSeriesAlittlemoreadvancedmethodsincorporateintotimeseriesthefactthateconomicdatatendstodriftyt=a+byt-1+etInthisseries,ifaiszeroandbis1,thisisessentiallythena?vemodel.Whenaiszero,thepatterniscalledarandomwalk.Whenaispositive,thedatadrift.TheDurbin-Watsonstatisticwillgenerallyshowthepresenceofautocorrelation,orAR(1),integratedoforderone.Onesolutiontovariablesthatdrift,istousefirstdifferences.第三十三頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一CointegratedTimeSeriesSomeeconometricworkincludesseveralstochasticvariable,eachwhichexhibitsrandomwalkwithdriftSupposepricedata(P)haspositivedriftSupposeGDPdata(Y)haspositivedriftSupposethesalesisafunctionofP&Y

Salest=a+bPt+cYtItislikelythatPandYarecointegratedinthattheyexhibitcomovementwithoneanother.Theyarenotindependent.Thesimplestsolutionistochangetheformintofirstdifferencesasin:DSalest=a+bDPt+cDYt第三十四頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一Moreandmorefirmarebecomingmultinationalenterprises.Exportsandimportsare influencedbychangesininternationalexchangerates.Differencesinlongruninflationrates(accordingtothetheoryofpurchasingpowerparity),nationaleconomicgrowthrates,andinterestrateshelpexplainlong-termexchangeratemovements.六、進(jìn)出口銷售與匯率第三十五頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一CompetitivenessandExchangeRatesTheinternationalcompetitivenessofproductsisaffectedbyexchangerates.

IftheUSexportsaJeepGrandCherokeethatsellsfor$30,000,thepriceofthesamecarinEuropeisvastlydifferentIn2000,$/€=$.86/€.Ifthatcarcosts$30,000,theninEurosthatis$30,000/$.860/€or€34,884.When$/€=$.86/€,then€/$=1/$.86/€=€1.163/$In2004,$/€=$1.20/€.Ifthatsamecarcosts$30,000,theninEurosthatis$30,000/$1.20/€or€25,000.When$/€=$1.20/€,then€/$=1/$1.20/€=€.833/$Clearly,moreJeepsarelikelytobesoldinEuropeatthelowerthanthehigherprice.第三十六頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一ForeignExchangeRiskExposureTranslationRiskExposure

–occurswhenforeignassetsorliabilitiesareaffectedbyexchangerates.DisneyownsaparknearParis.WhentheEurorisesagainstthedollar,thevalueofthelandrisesintermsofdollars.Thisisprimarilyanaccountingadjustment.TransactionRiskExposure

–occurswhenapurchaseorsaleismadeinthefuture,whichinvolvesaforeigncurrency.WhenCumminsEnginesellsequipmenttoJapaninYen,buttheygive60daysbeforethepaymentisdue,thereisariskthattheYenwillfallinvalue.OperatingRiskExposure

–occurswhencashflowsofthefirmareimpactedbyexchangerates.WhenJeepsellsmoreGrandCherokeeswhenthevalueofthedollarislow,andlesswhenitishigh,thisisoperatingriskexposure.Thisisthemostimportantrisk.第三十七頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一Jeep,BMW,andCumminsEnginearebuyingandsellingforeignexchangeinthemarket.GovernmentsalsointervenebybuyingorsellingcurrenciesSpotPrice

forforeignexchangeiscurrentprice(2daydelivery)canappearindifferenttermsThe$/€isthedirectquoteintheUS,buttheindirectquoteinEuropeThe€/$istheindirectquoteintheUS,butthedirectquoteintheEuropeForwardPrice

isthepriceofaforeigncurrencyfordeliveryatafuturedateagreedbycontracttodayTheMarketforUSDollarsasForeignExchange第三十八頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一CanadianDollar

SpotandForwardRatesCountry US$equivalent PerUS$

Canada(C$)

.7331 1.36311-monthforward .7327 1.36482-monthsforward .7322 1.36573-monthsforward .7320 1.36616-monthsforward .7312 1.367612-monthsforward .7298 1.3702WhatdoesthemarketthinkwillhappentotheC$basedontheforwardrates?

June21,2004from/economic/regular/fxrates.html第三十九頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一CrossRates

(June22,2004)USDEURJPYGBPCHFCADAUDHKDHKD7.79939.43870.071314.19046.23375.74495.3569

AUD1.45591.7620.01332.6491.16371.0724

0.1867CAD1.35761.6430.01242.47011.0851

0.93250.1741CHF1.25121.51410.01142.2764

0.92160.85940.1604GBP0.54960.66510.005

0.43930.40480.37750.0705JPY109.325132.305

198.91187.379680.52875.089914.0173EUR0.8263

0.00761.50340.66040.60870.56760.1059USD

1.21020.00911.81940.79930.73660.68680.1282Source:/markets/currencies/fxc.htmlUSD:U.S.Dollar GBP:BritishPound CAD:CanadianDollarEUR:Euro CHF:SwissFranc AUD:AustralianDollarHKD:HongKongDollar JPY:JapaneseYen第四十頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一

Supply&DemandModelofExchangeRatesForeignExchangeisusedfortradeandinvestment.Useasupply&demandmodeltoexploreFXratesDemandforSwissFrancs(SFr):

DemandisassociatedwithUSdemandfor

imports

fromSwitzerlandandpurchaseofSwissfinancialsecuritiesD$/SFr

SFr1,000SFr第四十一頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一

SupplyofSFrSupplyofSFr--SupplyisassociatedwithSWISSdemandforUS

exports

andUSfinancialinvestments.MarketClears-- noexcessdemandorexcesssupplyofSFInFlexibleMarkets,buying&sellingthroughinternationalbanksD$/SFrSFrS$.7993第四十二頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一SupposethatthereisariseintheInflationRate

intheUS

BothSupply&DemandofSFrShiftSWISSproductsappearcheaper,soDshiftstoD’USexportsappearmoreexpensive,soSshiftsfromStoS’TheSFrappreciates,andthedollardepreciatesD$1/SFrSFrSD'S'$2/SFr第四十三頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一SupposeUSinterestratesrise.DemandforSwissinvestmentsdeclines,fromDtoD’SupplyofSwissfrancsrisesasSwissseektoinvestintheUSfromStoS’SwissfrancsfallinvalueandthedollarrisesinvalueWhathappenswhenGreenspanCUTSinterestrates?D$1/SFrSD'$2/SFrS’第四十四頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一GovernmentalInterventioninForeignExchangeMarketsGovernmentscananddointerveneinmarketsDirectlybybuyingandsellingforeigncurrenciesAndindirectlybyalteringinterestratesorinflationratesSterilizedInterventionsinvolveoffsettinganindirectmove(likeanincreaseinshortterminterestrates)throughdirectactionintheforeigncurrencymarketsCoordinatedInterventionsinvolveseveralcountriesallagreeingtointervenetoraiseorlowertheexchangerateofsomecountry.第四十五頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一ForeignExchangeRiskManagement

Internalhedges–multinationalfirmsbuyandsellwithinthefirminanycurrencythattheyselect.BMWcouldusesaleofitscarsin$payablestobuyUScarpartsHedgesusingforwardcontracts–firmscanoffsetexposureinforeigncurrencybybuyingorsellingthatamountofcurrencyinaforwardcontract.ThisisatypicalwaytoreducetransactionriskexposureHedgesusingfutureoroptionscontracts–firmmayoffsetriskwithafuturescontractinthatcurrency.ForeigncurrencyfuturesandoptionsarelimitedtothemajorcurrenciesHedgesusingcurrencyswaps–firmsmayagreetoexchange(swap)streamsofpaymentsindifferentcurrencies,withadjustmentsateachsettlementdate.第四十六頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一DeterminantsofLong-RunTrends

inExchangeRates1.CountriesthathavehighgrowthratesinGDPtendtohaverisingcurrencyvalues.2. Countriestendtohaveadecliningvalueoftheircurrencywhentheyruntradedeficits,andtendtohaverisingcurrencyvaluesiftheyruntradesurpluses.3.Long-runtrendsinexchangeratesareaffectedbydifferencesininflation-adjustedinterestrates.Highrelativeinterestratesattractinvestors,tendingtoraisethevalueofthecurrency.4.Countrieswithhigh

inflation

tendtodepreciate;countrieswithlowrelativeinflationappreciate.

第四十七頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一PurchasingPowerParity(PPP)Purchasingpowerparitysaysthatthepriceoftradedgoodstendstobeequalaroundtheworld.Thisis:thelawofoneprice.ifexchangeratesareflexibleandtherearenosignificantcostsorbarrierstotrade,then:S1 =(1+h)S0 (1+f)

S1/S0showstheexpectedchangeinthedirectquoteofacurrency.Therightsideoftheequationistheratioofhomeandforeigninflationrates.Iftheforeigninflationrises(f),thenthedomesticexpectedfuturespotratesS1declines.第四十八頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一PPPExampleSupposeinflationintheUSis3%SupposethatinflationinCanadais4%ThecurrencypriceoftheCanadiandollaris$.74/C$.WhatistheexpectedpriceoftheCanadiandollarinoneyear?Answer:S1 =(1+h)=1.03=.9903=

S1

S0 (1+f)1.04.74Hence,S1=.74*.9903=$.732822/C$,aslightdeclinefrom$.74.第四十九頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一QualificationsofPPP

PPPissensitivetothestartingpoint,S0.ThebasetimeperiodmaynotinequilibriumDifferencesinthetradedgoods,orcross-culturaldifferences,maypreventthelawofonepricetoequilibratepricedifferences.Theinflationrateusedmayincludesomenon-tradedgoods.PPPtendstoworkbetterinthelongrunthaninshortrunchangesininflationaryexpectations.第五十頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一Trade-WeightedExchangeRateIndexWithmanycountriesandmanyexchangerates,whetheracurrencyroseorfelliscomplex.Wetendtocombinethecostofforeigncurrencyintoanindexbasedontheamountoftradetoeachcountry.Thetrade-weightedexchangerateindexisameasureofthevalueofthedollar.Theindex,EER,isweightedbytheamountoftradewithothercountries,wit.Anindexofthechangeinvalueofpairsofcurrenciessinceabaseyear,eI$it.If￡.40/$istheexchangerateinthebaseyearandisnow￡.60/$,thentheindexis(￡.60/$)/(￡.40/$)·100=150.Thismeansthatthedollaris50%moreexpensivetotheBritish.Theindexis:第五十一頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一InternationalTradeandTradingBlocs

Withnobarrierstotradeinafreetradeblock,suchaswehaveinNorthAmericabecauseofNAFTA,tradeexpandsIn1980,33%ofUStradewasinNorthAmerican.In1999,thatnumberis47%.In1980,57%ofEuropeantradewasinEurope.In1999,thatpercentageroseto61%In1980,13%oftradeinSouthAmericaintheblocknowasMERCOSURwaswithinthatregion.In1999,thatpercentageroseto22%Ineachcase,freertradewithintheregionledtomoreintraregionaltrade.SeeTable6.3onpage263.第五十二頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一RealTermsofTrade

Example:page265Table6.4

AbsoluteCostUS AbsoluteCostJapanCarburetors $120 ￥10,000MemoryChips $300 ￥8,000 Thequestionis:Whichcountryshouldmakecarburetorsandwhichshouldmakechips?第五十三頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一ComparativeAdvantageCountriesorfirmsshouldproducemoreofthosegoodsforwhichtheyhavelowerrelativecost.

RelativeCostinUS RelativeCostinJapanCarburetors .4Chips=$120/$300 1.25ChipsComputerChips 2.5Carb=$300/$120 .8Carburetors

Itcosts$120intheUStomakeacarburetorand$300tomakechips,the“cost”ofacarburetoristhe.4chipsforegone(taketheratio$120/$300tofind.4chips).TheUSrelativecostofcarburetorsismuchlowerthanthatoftheJapanese(1.25Chips),whereastheJapaneserelativecostofchips(.8Carburetors)ismuchlowerthanthatoftheUS.JapanshouldmakechipsandUSshouldmakecarburetors.第五十四頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一GainsfromComparativeAdvantageInthisexample,supposethatbothcountriescurrentlymake1carburetorand1chip.Worldproductionis2carburetorsand2memorychipsbeforetrade.Now,lettheUSmakeallofthecarburetors.Sinceeachchipgivenupis2.5carburetors,theUSnowmakes3.5carburetors(theonetheyweremakingandthe2.5extraonesmade).LetalsoJapanspecializeinmemorychips.Theystopmakingthecarburetorandmakeinstead1.25chips.Alongwiththeoriginalchip,theymake2.25chips.Worldproductionroseto3.5carburetorsand2.25chipsthroughcomparativeadvantage.Bothcountrieswillbericherbythistrade.第五十五頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一Restrictions

onFreeTradeTariffsExpandsdomesticproductionButraisesthepriceforconsumersImportquotasRaisesthepriceforconsumersExchangeratecontrolsReducestradeLargerfreetraderegionscalledtradingblocsEuropeanCommunityandtheEuroNAFTAExpansionofNAFTAwithLatinAmericaandMERCOSURAttemptsto

ExpandFreeTrade第五十六頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一SupplyandDemandAnalysisofTradeSituationwithoutatariffSmallCountry--importsoilatPwQuantityofOilDOMESTICDEMANDDOMESTICSUPPLYPw

Sd Qd Dd

AmountofoilimportedisDd-Sd第五十七頁(yè)，共六十二頁(yè)，編輯于2023年，星期一ImpactofTariffswithS&DCurvesSituationwherePTisthepricewithatariffQuantityofOilDOMESTICDEMANDDOMESTICSUPPLYPTPw

Sd S’d D’d Dd