1998年社科院考博英語(yǔ)真題

1998年攻讀博 GENERALDIRECTIONS:Eachstudenthasananswersheetonwhichistobewrittenthestudent’sexaminationIDnumber.AllanswerstothemultiplechoicequestionsofpartsⅠ,Ⅱ,ⅢandⅣaretobewrittenonthisanswersheet.Circletheletterthatisyouranswer.PARTⅠ:VOCABULARYDIRECTIONSFORSECTIONA:Onyouranswersheet,circletheanswerthatbestcompletestheThedaywascrispandsharp,butsuddenlyamistyrainbegantofall the b.c. d.thiscomingThursday,itwillbetoolatetoenrolfortheAs b.Asc.As d.AsThosewholet rarelyachieveturnthem b.sendthemc.weighthem d.huddleThespeakerwentonand tohislistenersobvious b.c. d. asself-respectandindustriousnessmeritthefullbackingofan b.c. Theinspector,havingreceivednewinformationfroma source,decidedtoenlargetheorhisenquiry. b.c. d.AninligentTVviewermay eenragedby argumentationin b.c. d.fleesifoneisconstantlysubjectedtodemeaning b.c. d.popularityofsubjectmatterandfrequencyofuse,thebooksonthetwomiddleshelveswillbethemosthelpfultoyou.As b.Asc.As d.AsI inmyreading,anddidn’tatfirsthearthedoorbell b.c. d.Theirchancesofwinningareslight,giventhattheiropponentsare b.c. d.WhenIreachhomeafteranimpossibleday’swork,Ifeela towatch b.c. d.Fallenelectriclines,rubble,ruinsandtheoccasional house--suchisthedestructionwroughtbythe b.c. d.Geographicilli cyiswidespread,andhardlyamonthpasseswithout fromsomesurveyrevealingnewdepthsofignorance. b.ac. d.theofcourseitispossiblethatthenewmayhavesomeadverseeffects,butitisour thatthesewillbenegligible. b.c. d.DIRECTIONSFORSECTIONB:Onyouranswersheet,circletheletterthatistheclosestsynonymtotheunderlinedword.Serialmurderersrarelydeviatefromacertaintypeof b.c. d.ThenewguppiesIboughthavejustatingeof b.c. d.Hecoveredthefishlavishlywith plec. d.Machiavellicautionstheprincenottorelinquishpowerunderpassing b.c. d.Theywasamerry b.aprudishc. d.TheSalkpoliovaccineprovidesimmunityfromthat b.c. d.TheSmithsonianhousesamiscellaneouscollectionofaircraft,artifacts,butterflies,stones［bothpreciousandcommon］,andsoon.a b.anc.a d.aThejunglesofthesub-Sahara,afflicted tse-tseandmosquitos,isanunhealthyrequiringinoculation b.heatedc.flooded d.dHeisconstantlylate,andill-preparedwhenhedoesfinallyarrive.Heisjeopardizinghis b.endangeringc. d.Chaostheorystressesthemagnitude oftheresultsproducedbysosmallaneventastheflutteringofabutterfly’swings. b.c. d.Theancillarydata,however,didnotsubstantiatehis b.c. d.Subsequentevents herpointofproved ved d.Rheniumisaddedasanalloyinasmuchasitwithstands b.c. d.At70,shehardlyseemscut-outformountainchosen b.fondc.likelyto d.fitTheelevatedroadwaycollapsed.Thiscalamitycouldhavebeenavoidedhadthemunicipalityallocatedfundsforinfrastructure. b.c. d.PART RDIRECTIONSFORSECTIONA:Onyouranswersheet,circletheletterthatbestcompletestheNowthatinscientificcommunitiestheuseofcomputersiswidespread,andsupposingthatthereissufficienttime,thereexistnocomplicatedproblem canbeaddressedwithsomehopeofresolution.a. b. c. d.Outoftheelementarynegeometrydevelopedbythe weusethetheoreticalgeometryevolvedthetheoreticaltheevolutionoftheoreticalgeometrythetheoreticalgeometryWehadto tofindarestaurant, aa. b. c.to d.Agoodindication hefollowedtheteacher’sadvicewasthathewhat b.howeverc.how d.whateverNoneoftheday’s salesordelivery,cameoffa. b.it c.be d.wasThetrafficwasvery ,andsowearrivedafterthestartofthethiswascompleywhichwascompleythatwascompleyitwascompley,hefindstheworkThoughheiscomputerAcomputerexpertheAscomputerComputerexpertashe,heneveraltersaWhatmay b.Maywhatc.Comewhat d.Maycome‘Thecarranoutof thecause,Ifilledthethismorning.mustn’t b.musthavec.can d.can’thaveTheirproposalisbetterthan allthings b.allthingsc.allthingsare d.allconsidered tobendsomehow,perhapswiththehelpsofamirror,lightonlytravelsstraightyou b.tobec.is d.Theslothissonamedforits itsgreatestenergyinthesearchforit b.forc.to d.anditAlthoughmostfoodstuffsenterthebloodstreamonlyafterbeingsubjectedtothedigestiveprocessbeginninginthestomach,alcoholishighlyunusual atleastone-fifthofthetyingestedisdirectlyso b.inc. d.in,wewillleavewithoutIfsheweretofailtocomeonSheshouldfailtocomeonShouldshefailtocomeonWouldshefailtocomeonMyphonecalltotheelectrician asIsubsequentlydiscoveredmywifehadphoned.Mywifehadneedn’tbe b.shouldn’tbec.needn’thavebeen d.didn’thavetoDIRECTIONSFORSECTIONB:Inthesentencesbelow,eitherA,B,CorDistheINCORRECTgrticalformforthesentence.PicktheINCORRECTformasyouranswer,andonyouranswersheet,circlethecorrespondingletter.TheMercandiserwidget

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theproduceformerlyavailableinthesameDPARTⅢ:CLOZEDIRECTIONS:Chooseasyouranswerthewordthatbestfitstheblank.Onyouranswersheet,circlethecorrespondingletter.ThereisnoquestionbutthatNewtonwasahighlycompetentMinisteroftheMint.Itwasmainlythroughhisefforts theEnglishcurrencywasputon satisfactorybasisatadifficulttime. discoveredarelationshipbetweenpricesand ofmoneyincirculation, laterformalizedintheso-called“ ”ofmoney:iftheamount Incirculationisdoubled–other thesame–thenpricesalso double.Thisisasimpleapplication theprinciplethatitis getsomethingfornothing,butapparently someonelikeNewtontodiscoverit.There anobviouscomparisonwithCopernicus, thePolishernmentoncurrencyquestions inngsodiscoveredanotherimportant (usuallyknownasGresham’sLaw): moneyisacceptedaslegaltender, moneywillbedrivenout .CopernicusanticipatedGreshamintheformulation thislaw.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.approximaa. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a.for b.by c.of d.toPARTⅣ:READINGCOMPREHENSION[30%]DIRECTIONS:Readeachpassageandanswerallthequestionsthatfollowthepassage.Onyouranswersheet,circletheletterthatbestanswersthequestion.Thereislittlequestionthatsubstantiallabor-marketdifferencesexistbetweenmenandwomen.Amongthemostresearcheddifferenceisthemale-femalewagegap.Manydifferenttheoriesareusedtoexinwhymenearnmorethanwomen.Onepossiblereasonisbasedonthelimitedgeographicalmobilityofmarriedwomen[RobertFrank,1978].Familymobilityisajointdecisioninwhichtheneedsofthehusbandandwifearebalancedtoizefamilywelfare.Job-motivatedrelocationsaregenerallymadetobenefittheprimaryearnerinthefamily.Thisleadstoaconstrainedjobsearchforthesecondaryearner,asheormustsearchforajobinalimitedgeographicarea.Sincethehusbandisstilltheprimarywageearnerinmanyfamilies,thejobsearchofthewifemaysuffer.Individualswhoaretiedtoacertainareaarelabeled‘tied-stayers,’whilesecondaryearnerswhomoveforthebenefitofthefamilyarelabeled‘tied-movers’[JacobMincer,1978].Thewagesofatied-stayerortied-movermaynotbesubstantiallylowerifthefamilylivesinormovestoalargecity.Ifalargelabormarkethasmorevacancies,thewifemaylocateawageofferneartheumshewouldfindwithanation-widesearch.However,beingatied-stayer ortied-movercanlowerthewife’swageifthefamilylivesinormovestoasmallcommunity.Asmalllabormarketwillreducethelikelihoodofherfindingajobthatutilizesherskills.Asaresultshemayacceptajobforwhichsheisoverqualifiedandthusearnalowerwage.ThishypothesizedrelationshipbetweenthelikelihoodofbeingoverqualifiedandSMSAsizeistermed‘differentialoverqualification.’Frank[1978]andHaimOfekandYesookMerrill[1994]providesupportforthetheoryofdifferentialoverqualificationbyfindingthatthemale-femalewagegapisgraterinsmallerSMSA’s.Whiletheresultsareconsistentwiththeexistenceofdifferentialoverqualification,theymayalsoresultfromothersituationsaswell.Firmsinsmalllabormarketsmayusetheirmonopsonypowertokeepwagesdown.Localdemandshocksarefoundtobeamajorsourceofwagevariationbothacrossandwithinlocallabormarkets[RobertTopel,1986].Sincelargelabormarketsaregenerallymorediversified,ademandshockcanhaveasubstantialimpactonim workersinsmalllabormarkets.Anotherreasonforexaminingdifferentialoverqualificationinvolvestheassumptionthattherearemorevacanciesinlargelabormarkets.Whilethereislittledoubtthatmorevacanciesexistinlargelabormarkets,therearealsolikelytobemorepeoplesearchingforjobsinlargelabormarkets.Ifthegreaternumberofvacanciesisoffsetbythelargernumberofsearchers,itisunclearwhetherwomenwillbemorelikelytobeoverqualifiedinsmalllabormarkets.Insteadofrelyingonwagestodetermineifdifferentialoverqualificationexists,weconsideranexplicitformofoverqualificationbasedoneducation.Intheauthor’sopinion,themale-femalewageisthemostimportantishasimportantrepercussionsonfamilyrepresents istattitudetowardissimplyoneofaconsiderablenumberoflabor-market‘Geographic asusedinthetext,refersthewayinwhichAmericanstendtomovefromjobtothepenchantwage-earnershavetoizefamilythenecessitytorelocateinordertoincreaseallofthenoneoftheIntheauthor’sopinion,whichofthefollowingstatementsisTheterm‘secondaryearner’doesnotdependonIfAwillearnmoremoneythanB,familywelfareisizedifBagreestoIfBwillearnmoremoneythanA,familywelfareisizedifAagreestoAlloftheaboveareNoneoftheaboveareThedifferencebetweena‘tied-stayer’and‘tied-mover’istheformeristhehusbandandthelatteristhetheprimaryearneris dtosearchforworkinaspecificareawhilethesecondaryearneris toroamabout.theformerisobligedtoremaininanareawhilethelattertheformeristhewifeandthelatteristhethelatter’ssalaryisofsecondaryimportancetotheformer’sWithwhichofthefollowingstatementswouldtheauthorThesizeofthelabormarket ThesizeofthelabormarketdeterminesacquiredskillsThesizeofthelabormarketdeterminestheprobabilityofmatchingskillswithappropriatewageTheauthorwouldagreewithalloftheTheauthorwouldagreewithnoneoftheThenamesanddatesbetweenrefertobibliographicalexinwhodiscussedwhatandwhentheydiscussedarereferencestowhattheauthorhasmaybedescribedbyallofthemaybedescribedbynoneofthe2.]TherepressionintheNetherlands,insteadofsolvingacrucialproblem,elicitedbittercriticismfromeverymajorEuropeanstate.Albawasunrepentantabouthistoughconvincedthanthepopulationmustremaininastateoffear,‘sothateveryindividualhasthefeelingthatonefinenightormorningthehousewillfallinonhim.’OftheleadingswhoescapedfromAlba’shands,onlyWilliamofOrangeremained.Tall,dark-haired,withasmallmoustacheandashortpeakedbeard,theprinceofOrange-Nassauwasagedthirty-fiveatthemomentthatfortunelefthimintheunenviableroleofdefenderofhiscountry.Acomrade-in-armsofPhilipduringthelatter’syearsabroadinmid-century,henevermadeasecretofhisconcernfortheprivilegesofhisclassorofhisdislikeforreligiousdogmatism.Widowedin1558,in1561hemarriedAnne,theLutherandaughterofthelateMauriceofSaxony.Themarriage,celebratedinLeipzig,gavehimausefullinkwiththeprincesoftheHolyRomanEmpire.WhennewscameofAlba’sdeparturefromSpain,OrangeopportunelytookrefugeinGermany.ItbecameclearthattheonlywaytoregaintheNetherlandswasbytheuseofthem.Inthecourseof1568Orangesponsoredinvasionsbyseveralsmalls,whichenteredfromFranceandfromGermany.Allweredefeated.CapturedprisonersgavedetailsofOrange’slinkswithantsinseveralcountries.TheinvasionscouldnotfailtoaffectthefateofthedistinguishedprisonersinAlba’shands.On5June1568,inthepublicsquareofBrussels,thecountsofEgmontandHorneswerebeheadedforhightreason.TheexecutionsshockedopinionthroughoutEurope.Thetwonobles,asknightsoftheGoldenFleece,couldbetriedonlybytheirpeers.ButPhilip,grandmasteroftheorder,hadclearedthewayforthetrialbyaspecialpatentwhichhehaddrawnupinApril1567andsenttoAlbainDecember.ThereisnodoubtthatPhilipconsideredEgmontresponsibleformuchofthetroubleinFlanders,butthepressureforanexemrypunishmentcameratherfromthemembersofhiscouncil,particularly[itseems]fromcardinalEspinosa.Albahadalwaysregrettedtheneedtoarrestthetwocounts,whom‘‘Ihavealwayslovedandesteemedasmyownbrother.”Accordingtosome,hewasreluctanttoproceedtoexecution.PhilipwroteformallytoAlba:“Iverydeeplyregretthattheoffensesofthecountsweresoseriousthattheycalledforthepunishmentthathasbeencarriedout.”Theremorse,whichcametoolate,wasprobablysincere.Thecountswerevictimsofapoliticalcrisis.Theirnames,interestinglyenough, tobeheldinhonourattheSpanishcourt.AbookontheeventsofFlanderspublishedinCastileafewyearslater,whenallbookshadtobelicensedbytheroyalcouncil,referredtothemas“outstandingprinces,welllovedandofthehighestandfinestcharacter.”‘Bittercriticism’iscriticismthatnoneoftheTherepressionintheNetherlandswaswroughtminorEuropeanWilliamofallofthenoneoftheWemayassumetheprinceofOrange-NassauwasmarriedthemarriagewaspremiseduponpoliticalsomeoftheprincesoftheHolyRomanEmpirewerethecountsofEgmontandHornesweredecapitatedinretaliationforthealloftheabovearetravelledtovariouscountriesinthemid-16thwasthechiefofficeroftheknightstheGoldenmayhavereluctantlyaccededtothemaybedescribedbyalloftheWhichofthefollowingisInthetext,FlandersandtheNetherlandsaretwocompleyseparateCardinalEspinosawasinstrumentalinswayingPhilip’sPhilip allyopposedtotheAlloftheaboveareNoneoftheaboveareThedeathsofthetwowerecausedmorebythepoliticalsituationthanbytheirdidnotdestroytheirreputationsinwerebroughtaboutbytheirbrother,maybedescribedbynoneoftheabovemaybedescribedby[a]and3.]Despiteeffortstoprovidethemwithalternativessuchastheshelter,womenfrequentlyandrepeatedlyreturnedtoviolentandabusivepartner.Bythelate1970s,feministsatWomenTogether,likethosengsimilarworkthroughouttheUnitedStates,begantounderstandthatbatteredwomenexperiencearangeofpost-traumaticpsychologicalresponsestoabuse,similartothoseofvictimsofothertypesofortrauma.Subsequently,thepsychologicalresponseofbatteredwomenbecamereifiedas“batteredwomansyndrome,”asub-categoryofpost-traumaticstressdisorder.Interestingly,inthecourseoftryingtocreatesocialchange,thefocusoffeministsperceptiblyshiftedtotryingtoexinwhybatteredwomenfailtoleavethepartnerswhobeatthem.Intryingtoaddressthisquestion,adebateensuedamongfeministsandmentalhealthworkersastopotentialmeritsandproblemsofcategorizingasmentaldisorderwhatmanyfeministslabeledanormalresponsetofearandanappropria yangryresponsetoabuse.Althoughmanywomenleftabusiverelationshipsorsuccessfullyended byothermeans,somerespondedtoongoingoracceleratedabusebykillingortryingtokilltheirmalepartners.Inmanystates,whentheywenttotrial,suchwomenfoundtheywererestrictedfromintroducingtestimonyabouttheabusetheyhadenduredortheirresultingstatesofmind.Intryingtoaddressthesewomen’sneeds,someactivistsandscholarsadvocatedtheuseofexperttestimonytoexinbatteredwomansyndrometojuries.Thisstrategywouldintroduceevidenceofpastabuseandchallengethegenderbiasesofself-defenselawbyexiningthewoman’sstageofmindatthetimeoftheoffense.Feministlegalscholarsraisedpotentialproblemsintheuseofbatteredwomansyndrome.Theyarguedthatitcouldbeusedagainstwomenwhodidnotneatlyfitpre-establishedcriteriaandhadthepotentialto eanotherexampleofthetendencytolabelwomen’snormalangryresponsesasmentalillness.Whilethedesirabilityofworkingtoadmitexperttestimonywasdebated,individualstatecourtsandlegislaturesvariedintheirwillingnesstorecognizebatteredwomansyndrome,permitevidenceofpastabuse,orallowexperttestimony.Asthelegaldebateaboutbatteredwomen’sresponsesto wasbeginningtounfold,theOhiomovementbecamedirectlyinvolvedinitwhenaformershelterresidentshotandkilledherabusivecommonlawhusband.In1978womenTogether,inconjunctionwiththewoman’slawyer,decidedtochallengeexistinglawbytryingtointroducebatteredwomansyndromeexperttestimonyattrial.Becauseatthetimethesyndromehadlittlescientificmeritorlegalrecognition,thetrialcourtdeclaredinadmissibility,adecisionupheldbytheStatesupremeCourt(Statev.Thomas198166OhioSt.2d51).WomenTogetherfoundersleftthesheltertoestablishprofessionalcareers,viewingthisasameansofadvancingthefeministagenda.Thefrustrations,limitationsanddefeatstheyhadexperiencedasoutsidechallengersimpelledthemtoadoptastrategyofinfiltrationandappropriationoftheinstitutionstheysoughttochange.Forexample,onfounder,whohadworkedthroughlobbyingforERAAmericainadditiontoherotherfeministactivism,exinedherdecisiontorunforelectedofficebysaying:“[WhenERAwasdefeated]Idecidedtorunforthelegislature.IsaidIcandobetterthantheseBatteredwomansyndromea.apsychologicalasub-categoryofaspecificstresssimilartothatexperiencedbyarangeofallofthenoneoftheGenerallyspeaking,womenwhoareaddressquestionstoreturntotheirmalerequireanexnationfortheleavetheirdononeoftheAdebatearoseastofeministsofmentalhealthworkerswerebatteredwivesshouldreturntotheirangerandfearwereappropriateorfocusshouldbealloftheyResponsestoabusebymalepartnersleavingkillingotherallofthenoneoftheTheuseofexpertdependsontheisawayaroundlegalisrequiredbystatelawsinwomen’sisawayofendingabusebyothermaynotbedefinedbyanyoftheWemayassumethatpriortotheperioddiscussedself-appliedtomenposedaproblemforthebatteredwomanreferstoexpertincludesalloftheincludesnoneoftheThewordreferstothebirdthatAmericanseatatisanunflatteringreferencetootherlaw-isanunflatteringreferencetothespeakerwillbeexinedinthefollowingreferstononeofthe4.]ThepositionofBurleighSchoolintheEnglisheducationalsystemwouldbeverydifficulttoexintoaforeigner(whohas,Godknows, enoughtocontendwithincomprehendingtheotherpartsofthesystem).Norwoulditbepossibletoreferhimtoanyworksofli ture(beforethepresentone)fromwhichhecouldgainenlightenment.TheprepschoolshavehadtheirOrwell,thepublicschoolstheirConnollyandBenedictus,theconventschoolstheirAntoniaWhite,theprivateboardingschoolstheirWaughandNicolasBlake.NoonehasthoughtitworththeirwhiletoeulogizeoranathematizeschoolslikeBurleigh.Indeed,schoolslikeBurleighdonotseemthesortofcesfromwhichwritersemerge.Andyet,anymedium-sizedtowninthesouthernhalfofEnglandhasitsBurleighSchool:aprivatedayschooltowhich,foranottooexorbitantfee,parentscansendtheirchildrenandboastthattheyareprivayeducated.Notwelleducated,butprivay.Burleighitselfhadbeenfounded–no,started–betweenthewars,hadsurvivedtheDepression(astheSouthofEnglandmiddleclassesingeneralhadsosignallymanagedtocoastblithelythroughtheDepression)andhadofferedovertheyearsanalternativetotheGr r,SecondaryModernandTechnicalSchoolsofthetownofCullbridge.Whichmeant,ineffect,thatthoughsomeparentschosetosendtheirchildrenthereratherthantotheGr rSchool,manymoresentthemtherebecausetheyfailedtheireleven-plus,thatBeecher’sBrookofEnglishchildhood.Withthecomingofcomprehensiveeducationthreeyearsbefore,eventhefaintwhiffofprivilegeattachedtotheGr rSchoolhadevaporated,afactonwhichBurleighhadbeenabletocapitalize,inamildway.Foreignersarealwaysapttofindcharmingtheexamplestheycomeacrossofquaintanachronisms,ofdatedanomalies,inEnglishlife.OnesuchcharminganddatedanomalyisthataschoollikeBurleighcanbebought.Aman–anyman–canbuysuchace,sethimselfupasheadmaster,andrunitashelikes.Indeed,thatispreciselywhatEdwardCrumwallishaddone.Hehadboughtitfromitspreviousagingowner/headmasterin1969andhadbeenthereeversince.ThismustnotbetakentoimplythatEdwardCrumwalliswasunfitforhisposition.HewasinfactaBA(3rdclass,Geography),fromtheUniversityofHull(graduated1948).Still,scholarshipwasnotexactlyhisthing.HemighttaketheoddclassinGeographyinapinch,buthehadnevergiventhesubjectanyparticularprominenceintheschool,andmostboysgaveitupaftertwoyears.NorwasCrumwallisanxioustotakeoverperiodsinothersubjectswhentherewasneed--asincasesofsicknessor(frequently)death.SincehisgraduationhehadnotcultivatedLearning.HehadcultivatedManner.HehadboughtBurieigh(whichheinvariablycalledTheBurleighSchool,incapitals)preciseltysothathismannermightbegiven reignandamplepasturage.Averygoodmanneritwastoo,withparents–decidedlyimpressive.Itcertainlyimpressedthoseoflimitedin ligence,amongwhommaybenumberedCrumwallishimself.Hereallybelievedinit:henotonlythoughtthatothersshouldremainsilentduringhisthreadbarepontifications,butheactuallybelievedtheywouldbenefitfromthem.Suchaconspicuouslackofself-knowledgehaditsdangers.NotthattheManner–whichheintendedshouldbesoadmiredlaterintheweekonParents’--wasparticularlyinevidenceontheMonday,ashesatathisstudydeskandwentoverthensforthateventwithhiswife.ThesideofEdwardCrumwallisthatwasmostevidentduringsucht·te-·-t·teswasthepretty-minded,nigglingsidethatsideofhispsychologicalprofilethatwasseldomturnedintheparents’direction.“Thequestionis,shallwesplurgeonthecoffeeandscrimponthetea,orviceversa,”heOrwell,Connolly,Benedictus,AntoniaWhite,WaughandNicolasarethenamesofdifferenttaughtateulogizedoranathematizedtheirarereflectedinalloftheareexinedbynoneoftheBurleighisrelativelyisanineffectivereliesonanappealtotheisreflectedinalloftheisreflectedbynoneoftheInthetext,eleven-plusmorethanelevenbutlessthanthenamegiventoanabodyofwatersimilartoBeecher’sapleasantfeatureofEnglishnoneoftheEdwardisaneffectiveandenthusiasticwasanoutstandingprefersformtoboughttheschooltohelpmaynotbedescribedbyanyoftheThepurposeofthefinalquestionisavoidwastingdeterminehowbesttopleasethemakeidledoallofthedononeofthe5.]ReformingtheSocialSecurityretirementprogramisanissueofenormouspracticalimportance.YetitremainsthemissingpieceinAmerican ysis.AtatimewhentheCongressandtheAdministrationareconsideringwaystoreformwelfare,Medicare,Medicaid,andthe etax,electedofficialsarestillunwillingtoconfronttheseriousproblemsofourSocialSecuritysystem.Eventually,however,itsdeterioratingfinancialconditionwill majorreforms.Whetherthosereformsaregoodorbad,whethertheydealwiththebasiceconomicproblemsofthesystemormerelyprotectthesolvencyofexistinginstitutionalarrangementswilldependinpartonwhetherwe,aseconomists,providetheappropriatein lectualframeworkfor yzingreformalternatives.Majorchangesthataffectthepublicatlargecanonlyhappeninourdemocracywhenthereiswidespreadpublicsupportforthenewdirectionof.Inthefieldofeconomics,theviewsofthemedia,ofotherprivate-sectoropinionleaders,andofpoliticiansandtheiradvisers,dependverymuchontheirperceptionofwhateconomistsbelievefeasibleandcorrect.Fundamentalreformsinacomplexarealikesocialsecurityalsorequirethedevelopmentoftechnicalexpertise,bothinandoutofernment,abouttheoptionsforchangeandtheirlikelyconsequences.Fortunay,andexpandinggroupofeconomistsisnowthinkingandwritingaboutsocialsecurityreform.Myremarkstodaygreatlybenefitfromwhattheyhavewrittenandfrommyconversationswithmanyofthem.IbegantodomyresearchontheeffectsofsocialSecurityreformnearly25yearago[Feldstein,1974,1975].AcentralconceptinmyysisofSocialSecurityhasbeenthenotionof‘SocialSecuritywealth,’whichIdefinedasthepresentactuarialvalueoftheSocialSecuritybenefitstowhichthecurrentadultpopulationwillbeentitledatage65[orarealreadyentitledtoiftheyareolderthan65]minusthepresentactuarialvalueoftheSocialSecuritytaxesthattheywillpaybeforereachingthatage.SocialSecuritywealthhasnowgrowntoabout$11trillionormorethan1.5timesGDP.Sincethisisequivalenttomorethan$50,000foreveryadultinthecountry,thevalueofSocialSecuritywealthsubstantiallyexceedsallotherassetsforthevastmajorityofAmericanhouseholds.Intheaggregate,SocialSecuritywealthexceedsthree-sofallprivatefinancialwealth,asconventionallymeasured.SocialSecuritywealthisofcoursenotrealwealthbutonlyaclaimoncurrentandfuturetaxpayers.Insteadoflabelingthiskeymagnitude‘SocialSecuritywealth,’Icouldhavecalledit‘thenation’sSocialSecurityliability.’Likeordinary ernmentdebt,SocialSecuritywealthhasthepowertocrowdoutprivatecapitalaccumulation;andSocialSecuritywealthwillcontinuetogrowaslongasourcurrentsystemremainsunchanged,discinganeverlargerstockofcapital.The$11trillionSocialSecurityliabilityisthreetimesaslargeastheofficialnationaldebt.AlthoughI ethecurrentpoliticaleffortstoshrinkfuturebudgetdeficits,itisworthnotingthat,evenifthetraditionaldeficitiseliminatedintheyear2002,sothatthenationaldebtisthennolongerincreasing,thenationaldebtintheformoftheSocialSecurityliabilityislikelytoincreasethatyearbyabout$300billion.Lookingfurtherintothefuture,theaggregateSocialSecurityliabilitywillgrowasthepopulationexpands,asit esrelativelyolder,andas esrise. ernmentactuariespredictthat,underexistinglaw,thetaxraterequiredtopayeachyear’sSocialSecurityb