企業(yè)及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案

PARTI

Challenges3WinningasaTeam團(tuán)隊(duì)致勝第一頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。WinningasaTeamIfcomplexityandvariabilityarewhatmakesupplychainmanagementahardgametomaster,thenthebesttacticsarethosethatleadtosimplicityandstability.Indeed,mostoftheinnovationsinsupplychainmanagementoverthepast20yearshaveattemptedtobothsimplifyandstabilizetheflowofdemand,supply,andcash.Theseinnovationsincludetheextensionofjust-in-timemanufacturingtechniquesouttothesupplychain,plusavarietyofspecializedprogramsformanagingthereplenishmentofretailinventories.Unfortunately,thegainsproducedbytheseprogramshaveoftencomeattheexpenseofotherlinksinthechain,andthatdoesn'timprovethecompetitivenessofthechainasawhole.Abrieflookatgametheoryrevealswhytheseprogramsarefallingshortandpointsthewaytothewinningstrategy:integratingthemembersofthesupplychainintoasmoothlyfunctioningteambymakingsurethateverymember'swincontributestothesuccessofalltheothers.倘若供應(yīng)鏈管理不易精通是因?yàn)槠溲}雜性(complexity)與變異性(variability)，那麼最好的戰(zhàn)術(shù)就是設(shè)法讓系統(tǒng)變得單純(simplicity)與穩(wěn)定(stability)。的確，在過(guò)去20年間，大部分的供應(yīng)鏈管理創(chuàng)新，都在企圖讓需求(demand)、供應(yīng)(supply)與帳款(cash)的流程可以簡(jiǎn)單，而且穩(wěn)定地進(jìn)行。這些創(chuàng)新的方法包括延伸及時(shí)制(JIT)生產(chǎn)技術(shù)於供應(yīng)鏈上，以及數(shù)種管理零售存貨補(bǔ)充的推動(dòng)方案(programs)。不幸的是，這些推動(dòng)方案所帶來(lái)的收益常造成供應(yīng)鏈其他連結(jié)(links)費(fèi)用的增加，而無(wú)法提升整體供應(yīng)鏈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。本章簡(jiǎn)單以「賽局理論」(gametheory)探討，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)這些推動(dòng)方案有所不足之原因，並指出致勝策略之道：整合供應(yīng)鏈成員成為一個(gè)運(yùn)作順暢的團(tuán)隊(duì)，確保每位成員的獲勝會(huì)帶給其他成員的成功。第二頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。JITSupplyPrograms(及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案)JIThastransformedmanufacturingOfthemanyeffortstoimprovetheflowofrawmaterialsintoproductionfacilities,mosthaveinvolvedextendingthereachofthejust-in-time(JIT)manufacturingmethodupstreamtowardsuppliers.OneofthekeyelementsoftheJITapproachis

eliminatingexcessinventorythroughouttheproductionprocessbytimingthemovementofmaterialstoeachworkstationtoarrivejustatthemomenttheyareneededforthenextoperation.Thispracticeminimizesinventoriesthroughouttheproductionprocess,helpingmanufacturingcompaniesreduceholdingcosts,minimizeobsolescence,andimprovetheirreturnonassets.ThesebenefitshaveledtothewidespreadadoptionofJITthroughoutindustriesthatuserepetitiveproductiontechniques.及時(shí)制改變了製造方式在改善物料到生產(chǎn)設(shè)施間流程的許多努力中，常見(jiàn)的做法是將及時(shí)制生產(chǎn)方法(just-in-time(JIT)manufacturing)向上延伸至供應(yīng)商端。及時(shí)制(JIT)方法的關(guān)鍵要素之一是，藉由排定「投料」到各工作站地時(shí)間，讓物料根據(jù)下一個(gè)作業(yè)(nextoperation)所需適時(shí)地送達(dá)，以減少生產(chǎn)過(guò)程中多餘的存貨。這樣的做法可以讓製程中的物料存貨降到最低，讓生產(chǎn)工廠降低存貨持有成本，減少老舊存貨，並且改善資產(chǎn)報(bào)酬率。由於有這些優(yōu)點(diǎn)，使得及時(shí)制生產(chǎn)方法廣泛地被應(yīng)用於重複性生產(chǎn)技術(shù)的產(chǎn)業(yè)中(repetitiveproductiontechniques)。第三頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。JITSupplyPrograms(及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案)FrequentshipmentsreducetotalinventoryOfthethreeinventoriesheldinproductionfacilities,thework-in-Process(WIP)inventoryismosteasilyreducedusingJIT.ButWIPisusuallythesmallestandleastexpensiveoftheinventories,andtacklingtheothertworequireschangingthewaysuppliersdeliverrawmaterialsandcustomersreceivefinishedgoods.Inordertobringdowntheinventoryofrawmaterials,JITproducersworkwiththeirsupplierstoswitchoverfromlargeshipmentsofmaterialsthatgotocentralreceivingfacilitiestosmall,frequentshipmentsthatgodirectlyfromtruckstothefactoryfloor(Figure3.1).Thechangeisadramaticone,oftentakingacompanyfrommonthlyordersandshipmentstomultipleshipmentsadaywithpreciselytimedarrivals.MostJITproducershaveasimilarprogramontheoutboundside,usingsmall,frequentdeliveriestominimizetheirinventoryoffinishedgoods.頻率高的貨件運(yùn)送可以降低總存貨在生產(chǎn)設(shè)施所持有的三種存貨類(lèi)型中，在製品(WIP)最容易運(yùn)用及時(shí)制方法來(lái)降低存貨水準(zhǔn)。然而，在製品存貨通常是其中占最小比率也花費(fèi)最少的部分，不過(guò)解決另外兩種存貨(原物料、製成品)問(wèn)題必須改變供應(yīng)商交運(yùn)原物料與交付顧客製成品的方式。為了降低原物料存貨，及時(shí)制生產(chǎn)工廠與他們的供應(yīng)商合作，將物料由大批量送到工廠中央物料倉(cāng)庫(kù)的方式，改為小批量高頻度直接由卡車(chē)送到生產(chǎn)線上(factoryfloor)的方式(見(jiàn)圖3.1)。這是個(gè)相當(dāng)巨大的改變，通常會(huì)將公司的月訂單／月交貨模式改變?yōu)閲?yán)格到貨時(shí)間要求之1日數(shù)次配送模式。大部分及時(shí)制生產(chǎn)工廠對(duì)於外向物流(outboundlogistics)也有類(lèi)似做法，即採(cǎi)用小批量高頻度的配送以降低製成品存貨水準(zhǔn)。第四頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。JITSupplyPrograms(及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案)Just-in-TimeSupply第五頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。JITSupplyPrograms(及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案)JITrequiresclosepartnershipswithsuppliersAssoonasmanufacturersbegintomakethesekindsofchanges.JITquicklyexpandsfromaproductioninitiativetoamuchbroaderprogramthatrequiressystematicchangesinsupplychainmanagement.Toyota,thecompanythatpioneeredtheJITmethodinthe1970s,waskeenlyawareofthisaspectofitsprogram,anditworkedcloselywithitssupplierstoconverttheiroperationstoJITaswell,preciselycoordinatingtheflowofgoodsfromsupplierstoproductionplants.Inordertosupportthecloserelationshiprequiredbythisnewkindofproduction,ToyotausedauniquelyJapaneseformofjointpartnership,calledakeiretsu,withitskeysuppliers.InToyota'scase,thekeiretsuinvolvedtakinga20to50equitypositionineachsupplierandreplacing20ofitskeyexecutiveswithToyotapersonnel.及時(shí)制要求緊密的供應(yīng)商夥伴關(guān)係在製造廠陸續(xù)進(jìn)行這些改變後，及時(shí)制很快地由生產(chǎn)推動(dòng)方案擴(kuò)展到更大範(fàn)圍的推動(dòng)方案，要求供應(yīng)鏈管理的系統(tǒng)性變革。豐田公司(Toyota)，在1970年代發(fā)展出及時(shí)制，很清楚及時(shí)制的特性，並緊密地與其上游供應(yīng)商合作，將供應(yīng)商作業(yè)也轉(zhuǎn)變成及時(shí)制，精準(zhǔn)地調(diào)節(jié)從供應(yīng)商到生產(chǎn)線的物料流程。為了支援新生產(chǎn)方案所需的緊密關(guān)係，豐田公司(Toyota)與其主要供應(yīng)商間採(cǎi)用了獨(dú)特日本型態(tài)的聯(lián)合夥伴關(guān)係(jointpartnership)，稱之為企業(yè)團(tuán)(keiretsu)。以豐田案例來(lái)說(shuō)，「企業(yè)團(tuán)」的做法涉及持有供應(yīng)商20%～50%的股東權(quán)益，以豐田公司人員替換供應(yīng)商20%的主要高階主管。第六頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。JITSupplyPrograms(及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案)SimplerorderingreducescomplexityJITpracticesofferimportantinsightsintohowsupplychainscanbeimproved.AlthoughtheapparentfocusofJITisonreducinginventory,thetruespiritofthemethodisasystematicpursuitofquality,oneaspectofwhichiseliminatinganyunnecessarycomplexity.Inthecaseofsupplychaintransactions,thisphilosophyhasledtoamuchneededstreamliningoftheorder-shipment-paymentcycle.Insteadofaccumulatinglargeordersmixingmanydifferentkindsofmaterials,producersplacemanyordersforindividualmaterials,oftenpayingforthesematerialsondeliveryratherthanaccumulatinglumpsums.Inaddition,agreatdealofdocumentationhasbeenstrippedaway.Forexample,traditionalordersareofteneliminatedinfavorofcontinuouslyupdateddeliveryschedules,andbillingdocumentsmaybeeliminatedaltogether.OneofthegreatcontributionsofJITtosupplychainmanagementisto

provideacleardemonstrationofjusthowsimplethebasicflowscanbecome.簡(jiǎn)單訂購(gòu)方式降低了複雜度及時(shí)制(JIT)提供許多關(guān)於供應(yīng)鏈如何改善的重要洞察力。雖然及時(shí)制主要著重在降低存貨，但這個(gè)方法的真正精神還是在於，以系統(tǒng)化方法追求品質(zhì)的提升，其中一個(gè)目標(biāo)就是消除任何不必要的複雜性。在供應(yīng)鏈交易的情況中，這個(gè)哲學(xué)更須要求「訂購(gòu)－貨件運(yùn)送－付款」週期(order-shipment-payment)的改善與順暢化。取代累積大量且訂購(gòu)多種物料的訂單方式，生產(chǎn)商依個(gè)別物料下不同的訂單，經(jīng)常收料後即付款而不會(huì)積壓很久再一次支付。此外，很多文件也不再需要。例如，傳統(tǒng)式訂單常被消除，改用持續(xù)更新的配送排程表(deliveryschedules)，而此同時(shí)，帳款文件(billingdocuments)可能也不再需要。及時(shí)制方法論對(duì)於供應(yīng)鏈管理的一個(gè)主要貢獻(xiàn)，就是提供一個(gè)清晰的示範(fàn)：基本流程可以是非常簡(jiǎn)單的。第七頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。JITSupplyPrograms(及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案)ConsistentperformancereducesvariabilityAlongwithreducingcomplexity,theJITphilosophyofqualityalsoseekstoreducevariabilityineverystageofproduction.Tothisend,eachoperationisanalyzed,refined,andrehearseduntilitcanbecompletedbothquicklyandconsistently.Inthecaseofsupplychains,thislevelofrigornotonlyacceleratesthemovementofgoods,italsoaddsanunprecedentedlevelofprecisiontodeliveries.Thisprecisionallowsinventoriesofrawmaterialstobereducedtoafractionoftheirnormallevelswithoutcausingshutdownsontheline.一致性績(jī)效表現(xiàn)可以降低變異性除了降低複雜性外，及時(shí)制品質(zhì)哲學(xué)也尋求降低各個(gè)生產(chǎn)階段的變異性(variability)。為達(dá)此目標(biāo)，每一項(xiàng)作業(yè)都要加以分析(analyzed)、修正(refined)與演練(rehearsed)，直至該作業(yè)可以快速且一致地完成。就供應(yīng)鏈來(lái)看，這麼嚴(yán)格的要求不僅加速貨物移動(dòng)的速度，也達(dá)到前所未有的交貨精確度。這樣的精確度使物料存貨可以降低其原有水準(zhǔn)，也不會(huì)造成「斷線」(shutdownsontheline)的情形。第八頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。JITSupplyPrograms(及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案)JITcanmakesupplychainsfragileOfcourse,noteveryformofvariabilitycanbeeliminated,andhereinliesthedownsideofJIT:Itcanmakesupplychainssofragilethatanyinterruptionintheflowofsuppliesbringstheentirechaintoahalt.Toyotalearnedthisin1997whenafireatoneofitssuppliersshutdownToyota'sproductionlinesforanentireweek.Thefollowingyear,

strikesintwoGMpartsplantsledtotheshutdownofalmostallofthecompany'sassemblyplantswithinamatterofdays.Ayearlater,sevenDaimlerChryslerplantsandthreeGMplantswereforcedintohalf-shiftswhenfloodinginonesupplier'splantcreatedashortageofasinglepart.AftertheterroristattacksofSeptember11,2001,manyplantsintheUnitedStateshadtobeclosedduetobreakdownsinthetransportationsystem.Ford,forexample,shutdownfiveNorthAmericanplantsduetopartsshortages,manyofthemduetodelaysinbringingtrucksacrosstheCanadianborder.及時(shí)制可能會(huì)使供應(yīng)鏈更脆弱當(dāng)然，不是所有變異性的型態(tài)都可以被消除，及時(shí)制(JIT)的弱點(diǎn)在於：及時(shí)制可能會(huì)讓供應(yīng)鏈變得非常脆弱，以致於當(dāng)物品供應(yīng)流程中發(fā)生任何干擾時(shí)，整個(gè)供應(yīng)鏈會(huì)陷於停擺。1997年，豐田公司(Toyota)在一次發(fā)生在其供應(yīng)商的火災(zāi)中學(xué)到教訓(xùn)，當(dāng)時(shí)讓豐田公司生產(chǎn)線不得不停工整個(gè)星期。次年，兩個(gè)通用汽車(chē)(GM)零件工廠的罷工事件在幾天內(nèi)幾乎使所有公司組裝廠停擺。隨即1年後，七個(gè)戴姆勒克萊斯勒(DaimlerChrysler)工廠與三個(gè)通用汽車(chē)工廠，因一個(gè)供應(yīng)商遭洪水侵襲，無(wú)法供應(yīng)某種零件而被迫以半天班(half-shifts)的方式生產(chǎn)。在2001年911恐怖攻擊事件之後，因運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)的癱瘓，許多美國(guó)工廠都必須停工。例如，福特汽車(chē)(Ford)，因零件在通過(guò)加拿大邊境時(shí)發(fā)生延遲而造成短缺，必須暫時(shí)關(guān)閉五個(gè)北美的工廠。第九頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。JITSupplyPrograms(及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案)ManufacturersarenowcautiousaboutJITShutdownssuchasthesecanquicklywipeoutthesavingsassociatedwithreducedinventorylevels.Foralargemanufacturer,havingaplantshutdowncancostasmuchas$10,000aminute.Giventhiskindoffinancialimpact,manyfirmsthatadoptedJITwholeheartedlyarenowrethinkingtheirpositionandtakingamoreconservativeapproach.Honda,forone,nowhasapolicyofmaintainingdualsuppliersforallitsrawmaterials.Ford,whilereaffirmingitscommitmenttoitsJITprograminthewakeoftheterroristattacks,immediatelybegandevelopingplanstostockpileenginesandotherkeypartsatsomeU.S.plants.製造商現(xiàn)在非常謹(jǐn)慎採(cǎi)用及時(shí)制類(lèi)此斷線停工狀況可以很快地侵蝕掉降低存貨水準(zhǔn)所帶來(lái)的效益。對(duì)大型製造商而言，停工所帶來(lái)的損失可以高達(dá)1分鐘1萬(wàn)美元。由於有這樣的財(cái)務(wù)面衝擊，許多熱切全心導(dǎo)入及時(shí)制的企業(yè)，現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始重新省思他們的定位，並且採(cǎi)用一種較保守的對(duì)應(yīng)方式。本田汽車(chē)(Honda)，其申一例，現(xiàn)在採(cǎi)用雙供應(yīng)商政策以確保物料的供應(yīng)無(wú)虞。福特汽車(chē)雖在恐怖攻擊後仍重申貫徹及時(shí)制，不過(guò)卻開(kāi)始計(jì)劃在數(shù)個(gè)美國(guó)工廠儲(chǔ)備引擎與一些關(guān)鍵零組件。第十頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。JITSupplyPrograms(及時(shí)制供應(yīng)方案)SimplicityandconsistencyremainkeygoalsEvenwithappropriateriskmanagement,JITisn'ttherightapproachforeverysupplychain.Itdoesn'tworkinjobshops,whichdonotuseproductionlines,andit'snotrelevanttoprocessmanufacturing.Evenwithinitsnaturaldomain,repetitiveproduction,it'snotagoodchoiceforlow-volumeproductsorforproductswithuncertaindemand.Butthesearelimitations,notdefects;fortherightkindofproductionenvironment,JITcanleadtodramaticimprovements.

Moreimportant,however,isthewaytheJITeffortillustrateshowmuchcanbedonetoreducecomplexityandvariabilityinsupplychains.JIT'semphasisonsimplicityandconsistencycanbeusedtoadvantageateverylinkofthechain,regardlessofwhetherotheraspectsofthetechniqueareemployed.簡(jiǎn)單化與一致化仍為主要目標(biāo)即使有適當(dāng)?shù)娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理機(jī)制，及時(shí)制不見(jiàn)得適用於所有的供應(yīng)鏈。它並不適合包件生產(chǎn)模式(jobshops)，這種模式是沒(méi)有生產(chǎn)線的；它也不適用於程序型生產(chǎn)模式(processmanufacturing)。即使在其最適用的領(lǐng)域──重複生產(chǎn)模式(repetitiveproduction)上，它也不適用於少量或不確定性高的產(chǎn)品。但這些只是限制，不能說(shuō)是缺點(diǎn)。用對(duì)生產(chǎn)環(huán)境的話，及時(shí)制可以帶來(lái)可觀的改善。然而，更重要的是，投入及時(shí)制後所顯示大幅降低供應(yīng)鏈複雜性與變異性所產(chǎn)生的效果。無(wú)論是否要使用及時(shí)制的其他特色，及時(shí)制在簡(jiǎn)單化(simplicity)與一致化(consistency)上之重視，即可為供應(yīng)鏈的每個(gè)連結(jié)帶來(lái)優(yōu)勢(shì)。第十一頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)RetailreplenishmentisatoughproblemThesecondmajorclassofsupplychainprogramsdealswiththedistributionside,andisconcernedwithreplenishingretailinventoriesHistorically,thelinkbetweenretailstoresandtheirimmediatesuppliershasbeenadifficultjunctureinthesupplychain.Inthepast,retailinventoriesweremanagedbyindependentstoreowners,whooftenlackedsophisticatedtoolsforforecastingdemandandplanningreplenishment.Yetthisispreciselythepointinthechainthatcanbethehardesttomanagebecauseitisthefirstpointtofeeltheimpactofchangingconsumerpreferences.Itisalsothepointwherethechainbecomesvisibletotheconsumer,soit'scriticaltomanageitwell.Ifthedesiredproductisn'tontheshelfwhenaconsumerwalksintobuyit,eventhemostperfectsequenceofsupplyoperationsisafailure.零售補(bǔ)貨是個(gè)困難的問(wèn)題第二類(lèi)主要的供應(yīng)鏈方案處理的是配銷(xiāo)端的活動(dòng)，是關(guān)於補(bǔ)充零售存貨的機(jī)制。從歷史角度來(lái)看，零售店與他們直接供應(yīng)商的‘連結(jié)，始終是供應(yīng)鏈中的一個(gè)問(wèn)題點(diǎn)。過(guò)去，零售存貨是由個(gè)別獨(dú)立的店鋪所控管，他們通常缺乏可協(xié)助預(yù)測(cè)需求與規(guī)劃補(bǔ)貨的精良工具。不過(guò)，這也可能是供應(yīng)鏈中最難以管理的設(shè)施點(diǎn)，因?yàn)榱闶鄣晔俏惶庫(kù)陡惺茴櫩推酶淖冇绊懙牡谝粋€(gè)據(jù)點(diǎn)。零售店也是消費(fèi)者直接接觸供應(yīng)鏈的那個(gè)設(shè)施據(jù)點(diǎn)，因此，妥善管理零售點(diǎn)是很重要的工作。如果顧客走進(jìn)店來(lái)想要購(gòu)買(mǎi)時(shí)，需要的產(chǎn)品卻不在貨架上，那即便是擁有最完美的供應(yīng)作業(yè)也是個(gè)失敗。第十二頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)EarlyeffortsshiftedcontrolofinventoryThefirstgenerationofretailreplenishmentprogramswasbasedonshiftingthecontrolofinventories(Figure3.2).Inthetraditionalarrangement,retailersmanagetheirowninventoriesandreplenishthemastheyseefit.Theproblemwiththisarrangementisthatproducersareofteninabetterpositionthanretailerstotrackemergingpatternsindemand.Inaddition,producerscanremovecostanduncertaintyfromthislinkinthechainbycentralizingcontrolofthereplenishmentprocess.Onewaytoleveragetheseadvantagesis

consignment,inwhichproducersretainbothownershipandcontroloverinventoriesoftheirproductsataretailer'ssite.Consignmenthasprovedtobeaneffectivetoolforsellingproductsthatretailersmightnotbewillingtocarryonconventionalterms,butit'snotthefirstchoiceforproducersbecausetheyhavetowaitlongerbeforetheygetpaidfortheirproducts.早期努力著重於存貨控制權(quán)的移轉(zhuǎn)第一代的零售補(bǔ)貨方案著重在存貨控制權(quán)的移轉(zhuǎn)(見(jiàn)圖3.2)。傳統(tǒng)做法是，零售商管理自己的存貨，並且根據(jù)他們認(rèn)為的適合數(shù)量來(lái)補(bǔ)貨。這種做法的問(wèn)題是，生產(chǎn)者往往處在優(yōu)於零售商的位置來(lái)追蹤正在浮現(xiàn)的需求型態(tài)。此外，生產(chǎn)者可藉由補(bǔ)貨程序之中央控制方式來(lái)移除連結(jié)上的成本與不確定性。一個(gè)平衡這些優(yōu)勢(shì)的方法是寄售(consignment)，即委託生產(chǎn)者保有商品的所有權(quán)與控制零售端的存貨。對(duì)一些零售商可能不願(yuàn)意以傳統(tǒng)交易條款銷(xiāo)售的商品，供應(yīng)商／生產(chǎn)者寄售的做法已經(jīng)被證實(shí)是個(gè)有效的方式。不過(guò)這種做法對(duì)生產(chǎn)者而言，不會(huì)是第一個(gè)選擇方案，因?yàn)樗仨毜群蚋L(zhǎng)的時(shí)間來(lái)取得貨款。

第十三頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)EarlyeffortsshiftedcontrolofinventoryInventoryManagementRelationships第十四頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)transfersownershipbutnotcontrolAmorerecentdevelopment,vendor-managedinventory(VMI),isshowninthemiddlerowofFigure3.2.TheinnovativeaspectofVMIisthewayitseparatescontrolfromownership,bothofwhichusuallytransferatthesametime.

InVMI,aproducerreceivescontinuousupdatesonaretailer'sinventorylevelandreplenishesitasneeded,withtheretailertakingownershipofthegoodsondelivery.Thisgivesproducersbettervisibilityofsalesoftheirproducts,helpingthemanticipatedemandandbetterplansupply.

TheretailersbenefitbecausetheynolongerhavetotrackinventorylevelsorplaceordersforproductsunderaVMIprogram.Theyalsosavemoneybecausetheyusuallyneedlessinventory,sometimesaslittleashalfofwhattheywouldotherwisekeepinstock.VMI移轉(zhuǎn)的是所有權(quán)但不是控制權(quán)最近的一個(gè)發(fā)展為供應(yīng)商管理存貨(vendor-managedinventory,VMI)方案，參考圖3.2的中間部分。一般而言，所有權(quán)與控制權(quán)的移轉(zhuǎn)是同時(shí)發(fā)生的，VMI的創(chuàng)新觀點(diǎn)則是將所有權(quán)與控制權(quán)分開(kāi)來(lái)處理。VMI的做法是，生產(chǎn)商接收到零售商存貨狀況的連續(xù)更新資訊，並且負(fù)責(zé)補(bǔ)充零售商所需；而零售商則在產(chǎn)品配交給顧客時(shí)取得所有權(quán)。這樣的做法讓生產(chǎn)商可以更清楚地掌握產(chǎn)品的銷(xiāo)售狀況，協(xié)助他們預(yù)測(cè)需求並做好供應(yīng)的規(guī)劃。而零售商則因無(wú)須追蹤存貨水準(zhǔn)與無(wú)須執(zhí)行訂貨作業(yè)而獲益。雙方也節(jié)省了成本，因?yàn)樾枰拇尕浲ǔ］^少，有時(shí)甚至雙方持有存貨為原來(lái)一半的水準(zhǔn)。第十五頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)QuickresponseappliesJITtotheretaillinkInadditiontoVMI,severalotherprogramshavebeendevelopedtosmooththeflowofgoodsthroughretailstores.Oneoftheearliestwasthequickresponse(QR)program,aneffortonthepartoftheapparelindustryinthe1980stocombinesomeofthetechniquesofJITwithtechnologiesformonitoringinventorylevelsinrealtime.AsshowninFigure3.3,electronicpointofsale(POS)systemsautomaticallycaptureddataaboutclothingsalesastheyoccurred,thentransmittedthisdatatoproducersusingelectronicdatainterchange(EDI)connections.Producersrespondedwithdailyshipmentsofpre-taggeditemsthatcouldgodirectlyfromtheirtruckstothesellingfloor.快速回應(yīng)將及時(shí)制應(yīng)用在零售連結(jié)上除了供應(yīng)商管理存貨(VMII)之外；還有一些已經(jīng)發(fā)展出來(lái)的方案，可以讓貨物流通到零售店的過(guò)程更為順暢。早期方法之一就是快速回應(yīng)(quickresponse,QR)，為1980年代服飾業(yè)所提出，致力於結(jié)合及時(shí)制(JIT)方法與即時(shí)監(jiān)控存貨狀況的技術(shù)。如圖3.3所示，當(dāng)衣服銷(xiāo)售發(fā)生時(shí)，電子銷(xiāo)售時(shí)點(diǎn)(electronicpointofsale,POS)系統(tǒng)自動(dòng)擷取銷(xiāo)售資料，然後以電子資料交換(electronicdatainterchange,EDI)方式傳送電子資料給生產(chǎn)商。生產(chǎn)商將預(yù)先貼好標(biāo)籤的產(chǎn)品，以每日出貨的方式由卡車(chē)直接配送至銷(xiāo)售場(chǎng)所。

第十六頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)QuickresponseappliesJITtotheretaillinkTheQuickResponseProgram

第十七頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)ContinuousreplenishmentaddedVMIInthelate1980s,theapparelindustryrolledoutanextensionoftheQRprogramknownascontinuousreplenishment(CR).AsshowninFigure3.4,thisprogramincorporatedVMIforbetterinventorycontrol,anditintroducedjointforecastingsothatproducersandretailerscouldpooltheirunderstandingofconsumerdemandtobetterpredictfuturesales.Anotherimportantaspectofthisprogramwasthatareplenishmentagreementactedasastandingpurchasecommitment.Thisallowedmembersoftheprogramtoeliminateindividualpurchaseordersaltogether,furtherstreamliningthereplenishmentprocess.持續(xù)補(bǔ)貨加入VMI機(jī)制在1980年代後期，服飾產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)一步延伸QR的做法成為持續(xù)補(bǔ)貨(continuousreplenishment,CR)。如圖3.4所示，持續(xù)補(bǔ)貨結(jié)合了VMI機(jī)制以提供更好的存貨管理，它更導(dǎo)入聯(lián)合預(yù)測(cè)(jointforecasting)方法，讓生產(chǎn)商與零售商可以整合對(duì)於顧客需求的瞭解，以更準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的銷(xiāo)售額。這個(gè)方案的另一個(gè)要點(diǎn)是，一個(gè)持續(xù)補(bǔ)貨協(xié)議猶如一項(xiàng)有效的採(cǎi)購(gòu)承諾(standingpurchasecommitment)。這可以讓成員間均去除所有的個(gè)別訂單，並進(jìn)一步使補(bǔ)貨程序順暢化。

第十八頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)ContinuousreplenishmentaddedVMIRetailReplenishmentPrograms

第十九頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)ECRaddedcategorymanagementIn1993,thegroceryindustrylauncheditsownversionofcontinuousreplenishment,callingittheefficientconsumerresponse(ECR)program.

ECR'smajorcontributionwastheadditionofcategorymanagement,whichorganizespromotionandreplenishmentactivitiesaroundgroupsofproductsthatconsumersviewasroughlyequivalentinsatisfyingtheirneeds.Thisadditionhelpsgrocerystoresdeterminethebestmixofproductstoputontheirshelvestomakesuretheircustomers‘needsaremetevenifthereareoccasionalshortages.Thisprogramalsoencouragestheuseofactivity-basedcosting(describedinChapter9)todeterminetheprofitabilityofeachproductcategory.有效消費(fèi)者回應(yīng)加入品類(lèi)管理機(jī)制1993年，日用品雜貨產(chǎn)業(yè)(thegroceryindustry)開(kāi)啟該產(chǎn)業(yè)自己版本的持續(xù)補(bǔ)貨系統(tǒng)，也就是所謂的有效消費(fèi)者回應(yīng)(efficientConsumerresponse,ECR)陣ECR的主要貢獻(xiàn)在於加入品類(lèi)管理(categorymanagement)機(jī)制，可以組織消費(fèi)者視為同類(lèi)產(chǎn)品的促銷(xiāo)與補(bǔ)貨活動(dòng)。這個(gè)附加功能讓日用品雜貨產(chǎn)業(yè)可以決定上架的最佳產(chǎn)品組合，即使有時(shí)部分產(chǎn)品發(fā)生缺貨仍可以確保顧客的需求得以滿足。這個(gè)方案也促成作業(yè)基礎(chǔ)成本制之應(yīng)用(參照第9章)，以決定每一產(chǎn)品類(lèi)別的獲利能力。

第二十頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)programsattackcomplexityandvariabilityLiketheJITprogramsdescribedearlier,retailreplenishmentprogramsreflectacontinuingefforttosimplifyandstabilizesupplychainflows.Forexample,theeliminationofordersincontinuousreplenishmentremovedamajorsourceoftimeandcostthataddednovaluetotheendconsumer.Theseprogramsalsopioneeredimportanttechniquesforcopingwithvariability,includingsomethataren'temployedintheJITeffort.Mostnotably,theuseofrealtimedataonsalesallowsretailerstorespondquicklytovariationsinconsumerbuyingpatterns,andtheadditionofjointforecastingallowsretailerstoprepareforsomeoftheseshiftsbeforetheyhitthestores.這些方案均在對(duì)付複雜性與變異性如前述及時(shí)制(JIT)般，零售補(bǔ)貨方案反映出簡(jiǎn)化與穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)鏈流程的持續(xù)努力。例如，持續(xù)補(bǔ)貨方案消除訂單之舉，移除了無(wú)法增加終端顧客價(jià)值的時(shí)間與成本的一個(gè)主要來(lái)源。這些方案也開(kāi)啟一些應(yīng)付變異性的重要技術(shù)，包括一些及時(shí)制(JIT)所未採(cǎi)用的技術(shù)。最顯著的是，銷(xiāo)售資料即時(shí)運(yùn)用可以讓零售商快速回應(yīng)顧客購(gòu)買(mǎi)型態(tài)的變動(dòng)，並且如再加上聯(lián)合預(yù)測(cè)，可以讓零售商在顧客購(gòu)買(mǎi)型態(tài)變動(dòng)對(duì)商店造成衝擊之前，預(yù)先做好準(zhǔn)備。

第二十一頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)CPFRisthemostambitiousprogramyetThemostambitiousreplenishmentprogramtodateiscollaborativeplanning,forecasting,andreplenishment(CPFR),amulti-industryeffortthatwasformalizedin1998(Figure3.5).AlthoughCPFRisnotadirectextensionofanyoftheprecedingprograms,itdrawsontheexperiencegainedwithallthree.Beingthefirstclean-sheetdesignsincethecommercializationoftheInternet,

CPFRabandonsEDIandprivatenetworksinfavorofInternetcommunication.

Inadditiontothedirectcommunicationofrealtimedata,tradingpartnersusecentralizedinformationserverstoviewandupdatesharedplansandforecasts.CPFR是迄今企圖心最大的方案迄今最具企圖心的補(bǔ)貨方案是協(xié)同規(guī)劃、預(yù)測(cè)與補(bǔ)貨(collaborativeplanning,forecasting,andreplenishment,CPFR)，是1998年形成的一個(gè)跨產(chǎn)業(yè)力量(見(jiàn)圖3.5)。雖然CPFR並不是任一前述系統(tǒng)的直接延伸，但是它吸取所有三者之經(jīng)驗(yàn)(allthree：JIT,QR,ECR)。因?yàn)槭菑木W(wǎng)際網(wǎng)路商用化後的第一個(gè)全新設(shè)計(jì)，協(xié)作規(guī)劃、捨棄電子資料交換(EDI)與私有網(wǎng)路，而採(cǎi)用網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)路溝通技術(shù)。除使用即時(shí)資料進(jìn)行直接通訊外，商業(yè)夥伴間採(cǎi)用中央伺服器存放可供檢視及更新的共享計(jì)畫(huà)與預(yù)測(cè)資訊。

第二十二頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)CPFRisthemostambitiousprogramyetTheCPFERProgram第二十三頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。RetailReplenishmentPrograms(零售補(bǔ)貨方)AdoptionofCPFRhasjustbegunInshort,theCPPRprogramreliesonadvanced,Internet-basedtoolstopoolinformationaboutdemandandsupply,allowingtradingpartnerstocoordinatetheirinventorydecisionsandsmooththeflowofgoodsacrossthechain.Theuseofsuchtoolsoffersimportantadvantages,butitalsorequirescompaniestomakesubstantialinvestmentsinnewtechnologies.Anotherobstacleiscultural:CPFRrequirescompaniestosharehighlydetailedinformationabouttheiroperations,andmanyarereluctanttodothat.CPFRisbeginningtowinconverts,butit'stoosoontotellhowwidelytheprogramwillbeembraced.CPFR之採(cǎi)納才剛開(kāi)始簡(jiǎn)言之，CPFR依賴先進(jìn)、以網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)路為根基的工具管理供需資訊，使交易夥伴間可以協(xié)調(diào)存貨決策，並讓供應(yīng)鏈中的商品流程更為平順。這類(lèi)工具之應(yīng)用提供了重要的優(yōu)勢(shì)，但是它也需要耗費(fèi)鉅額投資在新技術(shù)的引進(jìn)上；另外一個(gè)障礙是文化。CPFR要求企業(yè)問(wèn)分享非常詳細(xì)的作業(yè)資訊，而很多企業(yè)不願(yuàn)意這樣做。CPFR已逐漸贏得一些支持者，但目前還太早去預(yù)測(cè)究竟這個(gè)方案是否會(huì)被廣為採(cǎi)納。第二十四頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的問(wèn)題)AlltheprogramshavedeclaredvictoryAlloftheprogramsdescribedinthischapterwereintroducedwithgreatfanfare,andtherearesolidstatisticstodemonstratethateachofthemhassucceededinreducinginventoriesandacceleratingtheflowofgoodsacrossthechain.Theseglowingreviewsarebolsteredbycontinuingreportsinthebusinesspressabouttheremarkableeconomiesproducedoverthepasttwodecadesthroughtherelentlessreductionofinventory.There'sjustoneproblemwiththese’impressiveresults:Theymaynotbereal.Lastyear,ateamofresearchersatOhioStateUniversityconductedacomprehensiveanalysisoftheinventorylevelsreportedbyU.S.corporationsoverthepast20years,andtheyreachedastartlingconclusion:TheGreatInventoryReductionofthelatetwentiethcenturyneverhappened.所有方案均宣稱獲勝本章描述的所有方案均在很高的期望下被引進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)，而且也有具體統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字顯示，每個(gè)方案均成功地在供應(yīng)鏈中降低存貨與加速商品的流動(dòng)。這些絢爛的回顧，更在許多商業(yè)媒體持續(xù)不斷報(bào)導(dǎo)過(guò)去20年間，竭盡力量消減存貨產(chǎn)生的顯著經(jīng)濟(jì)效益所強(qiáng)化。這些令人驚訝的成果卻有一個(gè)問(wèn)題──成果可能是不真實(shí)的。去年，俄亥俄州立大學(xué)(OhioStateUniversity)的一個(gè)研究團(tuán)隊(duì)，針對(duì)美國(guó)企業(yè)過(guò)去20年的存貨水準(zhǔn)變化進(jìn)行一次廣泛分析時(shí)，得到一個(gè)令人吃驚的結(jié)論：20世紀(jì)末期的存貨大消減(theGreatInventoryReduction)根本沒(méi)有發(fā)生！第二十五頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的問(wèn)題)Theprogramsaren’treducinginventoryThestudydidrevealamodestoveralldeclineintotalinventorysince1980,butmostofthatwasduetoasmallnumberofindustriesthatmadestructuralchangesintheirsupplychains.Forexample,theeliminationofdistributorsandretailersinthedirectsalesmodelperfectedbyDell,togetherwithotheradvancedsupplychaintechniques,allowedthecomputerindustrytocutitstotalinventoriesinhalfoverthe20-yearperiod.Thesearetrulyimpressivegains,andtheyhavecontributedtothedramaticreductionsinpriceswithinthisindustry.Butforotherindustries,includingthetwothathavemostardentlypursuedretailreplenishmentprograms—apparelandgrocery—inventorylevelshaveremainedabsolutelyflatoverthelifeofthoseprograms.所有方案均未能降低存貨這項(xiàng)研究的確顯示，從1980年以來(lái)，整體存貨有些微的降低，但是，這個(gè)改變多半來(lái)自於一小部分產(chǎn)業(yè)在供應(yīng)鏈上之結(jié)構(gòu)性改變。例如，消除配銷(xiāo)商與零售商且被戴爾公司(Dell)完美化的直接銷(xiāo)售模式(directsalesmodel)，以及一些其他先進(jìn)供應(yīng)鏈技術(shù)，使電腦產(chǎn)業(yè)在過(guò)去20年間降低了一半的整體存貨。這確實(shí)是令人欽佩的成果，也使得電腦產(chǎn)業(yè)的價(jià)格大幅下滑。但是對(duì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)而言，包括熱切追求零售補(bǔ)貨方案的服飾與日用品雜貨兩個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)，在導(dǎo)入各種方案後，存貨水準(zhǔn)仍舊維持不變。第二十六頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的問(wèn)題)They’rejustmovinginventoryelsewhereWhat'sgoingonhere?Aretheseprogramsjustasham?No;theproblemissubtlerthanthat.Theinventorylevelsofthecompaniesparticipatingintheseprogramshave,infact,dropped,butitnowappearsthatmostofthosereductionswereachievedbydisplacinginventorywithinthechainratherthanactuallyeliminatingit.Thismaybegoodforthecompaniesreportingsuccess,butit'shardonothermembersoftheirchains,anditdoesnothingtomakethosechainsmoreefficientorcompetitiveoverall.Theseprogramsmaybeintendedtocreateanewlevelofcooperationinthesupplychain,bringingcompaniestogetherastruetradingpartners,but,asoftenhappensinbusiness,

thebenefitsofthatcooperationappeartoaccruemostlytothedominantparty.它們只是將存貨移到其他地方到底發(fā)生了什麼問(wèn)題呢？難道這些方案只是一些可恥之舉嗎？不是的！問(wèn)題比這些來(lái)得更為細(xì)微、難以捉摸。事實(shí)上，參與這些方案的企業(yè)之存貨水準(zhǔn)的確是下降了，但是，大部分存貨的減少似乎是將其移轉(zhuǎn)到供應(yīng)鏈的其他地方，而不是真正地去除掉存貨。這種現(xiàn)象可能對(duì)那些報(bào)導(dǎo)成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)的企業(yè)很好，但是卻不利於其他供應(yīng)鏈的成員，根本無(wú)法讓供應(yīng)鏈更貝效率與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。這些方案可能試圖在供應(yīng)鏈中創(chuàng)造一種新的合作境界，以期整合各公司成為真正的交易夥伴，不過(guò)猶如企業(yè)常規(guī)，這類(lèi)合作的利益多半落在具有關(guān)鍵主導(dǎo)權(quán)的成員(dominantparty)身上。第二十七頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的問(wèn)題)RetailershaveslashedtheirinventoriesTherenownedsuccessofWal-Martinmasteringitssupplychainprovidesagoodcaseinpoint.ThroughavariantoftheclassicverticalintegrationstrategyWal-Marthaslargelyeliminatedthedistributors,carriers,andothermiddlementhatusedtointervenebetweenproducersandretailoutlets(Figure3.6).Thescaleofthiseffortisstaggering:Wal-Mart'struckscarry50millionpalletsofgoodseachweekto500millionsquarefeetofretailspacetoserve15millioncustomersaday.Witheconomiesofscalesuchasthese,Wal-Marthasbeenabletoeliminateagreatdealofexcesscostinitssupplychain.Theseefficienciesarereflectedinthenationaldata:Retailisoneofthefewsectorsthathasmadedramaticprogressinreducingitstotalinventory,neatlyparallelingtheriseofmegaretailerssuchasWal-Mart.零售商大砍他們的存貨精通供應(yīng)鏈的沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)知名成功案例提供一個(gè)很好的例子。透過(guò)一種典型的垂直整合策略，Wal-Mart已經(jīng)大幅去除配銷(xiāo)商、運(yùn)輸業(yè)者，以及其他過(guò)去介於生產(chǎn)商與零售點(diǎn)間的中間業(yè)者(見(jiàn)圖3.6)。這項(xiàng)努力的規(guī)模非常巨大：Wal-Mart的貨車(chē)每週載運(yùn)5,000萬(wàn)個(gè)棧板的貨物到占地5億平方呎的零售通路，每天提供1,500萬(wàn)位顧客服務(wù)。擁有這麼龐大的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)力量，Wal-Mart始終具有能力去除供應(yīng)鏈上許多的多餘成本。這樣的效率反映在國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字：零售業(yè)是少數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)之一，在整體存貨下降上有非常大的進(jìn)展，與像Wal-Mart般之大型零售商的崛起時(shí)間幾乎平行發(fā)展。第二十八頁(yè)，共六十六頁(yè)。TheProblemwithPrograms(方案的問(wèn)題)ManufacturersnowholdmorefinishedgoodsWal-Mart'smassivescalealsoallowsittodictatetermstomanufacturers,reversingthehistoricaldominanceofproducersinthesupplychainsforconsumergoods.Forexample,companiesthatwantaccesstoWal-Mart'svastretailchannelhavetoshiplargevolumesofgoodstomanydifferentlocations,

meetprecisedeliveryscheduleswithhighreliability,andreactinstantlytochanginglevelsofdemandthroughouttheWal-Martempire.Theserequirementstranslatedirectlyintoincreasedinventoriesoffinishedgoods,andthat'sexactlywhatthedatashow.IntheindustriesthatservemegaretailerssuchasWal-Mart,inventoriesoffinishedgoodshavenotjustRemainedflat,theyhaveactuallygoneupoverthelast20years.製造商現(xiàn)