高盛-全球電池：綠色通貨膨脹挑戰(zhàn)（英）

Note:Thefollowingisaredactedversionoftheoriginalreportpublished8March,2022[39pgs].

8March2022|11:42PMSGT

Global

Batteries:TheGreen?ationChallenge

NikhilBhandari

+65-6889-2867|nikhil.bhandari@

GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte

AmberCai

+852-2978-6602|amber.cai@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

KotaYuzawa

+81(3)6437-9863|kota.yuzawa@

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.

JoyZhang

+852-2978-6545|joy.x.zhang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

VinitJoshi

+91(22)6616-9158|vinit.joshi@

GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL

FeiFang

+852-2978-1383|fei.fang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

GiuniLee

+82(2)3788-1177|giuni.lee@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Seoul

Branch

RyoHarada

+81(3)6437-9865|ryo.harada@

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.

ShawnShin

+65-6889-2468|shawn.shin@

GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte

Manufacturingbatteriesisacomplexbusiness,withinterplayofsecuringvarious

rawmaterialsandmanagingthesupplychainforabroadrangeofcomponentsthat

varyovertimeasthechemistryevolves.Moreover,ever-increasingdemand,

componentshortagesandrisingrawmaterialpricesarenowchallengingthe

long-standingconsensusthatbatterypriceswillcontinuetodeclineinthecoming

decade.Toassesstheimpactofthis“Green?ation”andpotentialsupplychain

bottlenecksahead,weintroduceourproprietarybatterypackpriceandcost

curvemodel,supply-demandmodelsacrossbatterycomponentsandabear

casebatteryTAMscenario.

Fivekeyconclusionsfromouranalysis:

1.Weexpectalikelyhiccupinbatterypricede?ationover2022-23,butbattery

innovationsandmorefuelsavingsfromhigheroilpricesimplycostparityof

EVstoICEinabroaderpartoftheindustryonaTCObasiscouldstillbe

achievedby2025.WeestimatebatterypackpricestorisefromUS$129/kWhin

2021toUS$136/kWhin2022,beforefallingtowardsUS$105/kWhin2025.

2.Weexpectcontinuedsupplytightnessinbasemetals(e.g.copperandnickel)

andseebottlenecksaheadinselectbatterycomponents(e.g.anodesand

nickelcathodes)asthecomponentindustryisstillnascent,geographically

concentratedinChinaandneedstoexpandcapacitymorerapidly.

3.ForsustainableEVsupplygrowthamidperiodictightnessacrossmaterials,the

industryrequiresamorediversi?edmixofbatterychemistryinthemedium

term(e.g.weareraisingourLFPmarketshareto38%by2030from25%),

withrecyclingofmetalsfromretiredbatteriestoplayakeyrolelongerterm.

4.Green?ationnotonlyleadstomarginrisksnearterm,butalsoraisesthebattery

industryentrybarrierssincetheaccesstorawmaterialsbecomesmoredif?cult.

Thisimpliesthattheindustrystructurewilllikelyremainconsolidatedand

batterycellsupply-demandwillberunningtightoutsideofChinathrough2025.

5.Technologydiversi?cationandverticalintegrationwillbethekey

determinantsoflongtermwinnersinthebatteryindustry.

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,

investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis

report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certi?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearch

analystswithFINRAintheU.S.

Global

GoldmanSachs

8March20222

Global

GoldmanSachs

8March20223

PMSummary

Risingrawmaterialpricesarechallengingthelong-standingconsensusthatbatterypriceswillcontinuetodeclineinthecomingdecade.ForEVstoreachparitytoICEcarswithoutsubsidies,batterypackpricesneedtofalltoUS$100/kWh(v.s.US$129/kWhin2021),whichisimportantforsustainablelong-termgrowthinEVsbeyondneartermsupportfromregulationsandsubsidies.Toassessimpactofthe“Green?ationweintroduceourproprietarybatterypackpriceandcostcurvemodel,wherewelookintothechangingdynamicsofeachbatterycomponentacrosschemistriesbeforewecompilethemintoonetotalbatterypackprice.Thismodelenablesustoquantifythecostimpactofchangeswithinacertainbatterycomponent(e.g.chemistrychangesincathodesandanodes),alongthebatterysupplychain(e.g.utilizationincreaserelatedcostdeclines)andacrosstime(e.g.changesin2022-25rawmaterialpricesoutlook).Wefurtherintroducetheglobalsupply-demandmodelsacrossbatterycomponents,whichhelpsustolocatethesupplybottlenecksalongthebatteryvaluechain.Weseethefollowingtakeaways:

#1:“Green?ation”couldchallengethepaceofbatterypricedecline:Werunfourcommoditypricescenariosover2022-25,and?ndthattheaveragebatterypackpricewouldstayabovethe2021levelover2022-23,inbothourbasecaseandthescenariousingdecade-highmaterialprices.Thatsaid,batteryinnovations,moreef?cientmanufacturingandmorefuelsavingsfromhigheroilpricesimplycostparityofEVstoICEinabroaderpartoftheindustryonaTCObasiscouldstillbeachievedby2025.Inourbasecase,weexpectinnovationstocontributeUS$45/kWhbatterycostde?ationover2020-2025,ofwhichhighercommoditypricescoulderodeUS$13/kWh,onnet,leadingtoaUS$32/kWhdeclineinthebatterypackprice(fromUS$138/kWhin2020toUS$105/kWhin2025);inascenarioofmaterialpricesreachingdecade-highlevels,wenotegreen?ationcoulderodeUS$30/kWhofothercostde?ation,leadingtoa2025EbatterypackpriceatUS$123/kWh.

#2:Furthersupplychainbottlenecksinthemediumterm,batteryrecyclingkeyforlongtermEVadoption:Forrawmaterials,weseecontinuedsupplytightnessinbasemetals(e.g.copperandnickel),withtherecentRussia-Ukrainesituationposingfurthersupply-drivenupsiderisksforcopper,nickelandaluminium.Amongbatterycomponents,weseemoreconstrainedsupplyforanodesandnickelcathodes.Whilethenickelcathodesuppliershaveannouncedsuf?cientexpansionstoreducesupplytightnesstowards2025,capacityexpansionsannouncedforanodesofarfallshortofdemandgrowth,implyingsustainedhighmarginsuntilmoreinvestmentisattracted.Inthelongrun,wearelessconcernedwithrawmaterialsupplygiventheavailabilityofrecycledmetals—weestimatethefullrecyclingofEVbatterymetalscouldsupply39-57%oflithium,cobaltandnickeldemandforbatteriesby2040Eor70-80%onceEVpenetrationreaches100%for8-10years,partlyrealizingself-circulationwithinEVbatterychain.

#3:IncreaseduseofLFP—amorediversi?edchemistrymixisrequiredforasustainedEVgrowth:InChina,LFPsurpassedternarybatteriessincelastSeptember

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GoldmanSachs

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tobecometheNo.1batterytype;outsideofChina,LFPisgainingtraction,asthepatentexpirationaround2022-23removespreviousex-Chinausagelimitations.GivenLFP’scostadvantageandOEMs’materialdiversi?cationincentives,weraiseourpreviousforecastofLFP’smarketshare,nowexpectingittoriseinto2030beforeitdeclinesontheincreasingimportanceofbatteries’recyclingvalue.

#4:Weintroduceabear-casescenarioforEVpenetrationgiventhegreen?ationrisks:Batterycostsaccountforaround30%ofthetotalEVcost,andareductioninthesecostsisessentialforEVbusinessestobecomeeconomicallyviable.Withbatterycostsrisingforthe?rsttimesincetheEVshiftstartedaccelerating,weseetheneedtoconsiderthedownsideriskstoEVsalesinascenariowheregreen?ation’simpactislargerthanourcurrentbasecase—e.g.materialpricestosustainatthedecade-highlevelsfornext5years,leadingtolimitedeconomics-drivenEVdemandfromendusers.ThiscomplementsouroutlookforEVsales,whichnowcomesinbear,baseandhyper-adoptionscenarios.

#5:Limitedaccesstorawmaterialsraisesthebatteryindustryentrybarriers:Althoughanumberofnewstart-upsarecompetingformarketshareincellmanufacturing,wedonotseeasigni?cantriskfortopplayerstomaintainleadershipover2022-30.Inourview,multiplebarriersexistfornewentrantsincludeincumbenttopplayers’technologyleadership,economiesofscale,andtheirextensiveverticalintegrationthatensuresfullcontrolofthesupplychain—acompetitivestrengththatbecomesmoreprominentinfaceoftherawmaterialsupplybottlenecks.

Fromastock-pickingperspective,giventheriskofperiodicshortagesacrossbatteryrawmaterialsandcomponents,aswellasmorediversi?edbatterychemistryviewahead,webelievethatverticalintegrationandtechnologydiversi?cationwillbethekeydeterminantsoflongtermwinnersinthebatteryindustry.Wediscussthecompanydetailsandtheirrespectivematerialsourcingstrategiesinthe“Stockhighlights”section.

8March20225

GoldmanSachs

Global

Thesisin12keycharts

Exhibit1:Batteryrawmaterialshaveseensigni?cantpricein?ation...

Batterymaterialprices

Jan2017=100

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

201720182019202020212022LiNiCoMnAlCuLiPF6

Source:Re?nitiv,Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:Highercommoditypricestoerodesomeofthecostde?ationcontributedbybatteryinnovations

US$/kWhBatterypackcostchange

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

US$138/kWh

risesvs.Cathodeternaryinnovation

Celldesignand

Raw

materialpriceincrease

Scale,utilizationincreases

LFPshare

process

improves

Anode

innovation(-);

CTP,CTC

Artificial

US$105/kWh

graphite

sharerises(+)

Source:WoodMackenzie,SNEResearch,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit5:LFPbatteriesaresigni?cantlycheaperthanNCMbatteriesin2021,butthecostgapnarrowstowards2025

US$/KWh

Batterypackcostcurve(FOB)

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

480

540

600

660

720

780

840

900

960

1020

1080

1140

1200

1260

2025E

NCM523

2025E

NCM811

NCM622

NCM9

NewbatteriesLFP

(withrecycle)

NCA

NCM622NCM523

NCM8112021

NCA

NCM523

LFP

NCM622NCA

LFP

NCM9NCM811

Newbatteries

GWhofbatterydemand

Source:WoodMackenzie,SNEResearch,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Exhibit2:...leadingtoalikelyhiccupinbatterypricede?ationover

2022-23

2025E:

Scenario1*:US$123/kWh

Basecase:

US$105/kWh

Scenario2:

US$98/kWh

Scenario3:

US$92/kWh

US$/kWhBatterypackpricescenarios

2019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E

CathodematerialAnodematerialOthercomponentsOpexProfitCell-to-pack

Materialpricescenarios:1)decade-highprices;2)5-yearaverages;3)2020levels

Source:WoodMackenzie,SNEResearch,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit4:Evenifbatterypricesfalllessthanpreviousexpectations,theoilstrengthwilllikelysupportEVsales

years

40

EVpremiumpaybackperiodvs.ICE

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Targetpayback*(3years)

Basecasebatteryprice,Brentoilat$105(forecast)

5yaveragebatterymaterialprice,Brentoilat$85

Decade-highbatterymaterialprice,Brentoilat$115(spot)

*ToyotaPriusachievedbreakthourghinsalesaftershorteningthepaybackperiodto3years.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit6:WeexpectLFP’smarketsharetoriseinto2030beforeitdeclinesonrisingimportanceofrecyclingvalue

%

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

Mixofbatterychemistry

1%12%

14%

20%

2%

21%

39%

7%

4%

11%

2%

34%

36%

40%

47%

30%

17%

36%

38%

28%

28%

28%

20212025E2030E2035E2040E

LFPNMC811/9NMC622/532NCANewbatteries(NM/ASSB/etc.)

Source:Companydata,WoodMackenzie,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Global

GoldmanSachs

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2025Eutilization

LooseTight

150%140%130%120%110%100%90%80%70%60%50%

Tightening

Anode

Aluminium

Loosening

Nickel

Electrolyte

SeparatorFecathode

Copper

Lithium

Nicathode

LiPF6

Exhibit7:Alongthebatteryvaluechain,supplyisrunningtightinbasemetals,anodes,andnickelcathodes

Exhibit8:Chinadominatesthesupplyofintermediatebatterymaterialsandcomponents

Utilizationratesacrossthebatteryvaluechain

%

China'sshareacrossthebatteryvaluechain

50%70%90%110%130%150%

Tight

Loose

2021utilization

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

19%

92%

65%

71%

Rawmaterials

Processed

Batterycomponents

Cell

assembly

materials

AustraliaChileChinaArgentinaKoreaEUJapanUSOthers

Demand/supplyforrawmaterials;demand/capacityforprocessedmaterialsandcomponents;limitedbyforecastperiod,nickelandaluminiumusing2023Efor2025E

Source:WoodMackenzie,SNEResearch,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

58%51%

39%

32%

19%

15%

11%

3%3%3%

21%

Exhibit9:WeremainpositiveonEVadoption,butalsointroduceourbearcasescenarioduetogreen?ationrisks

EVpenetrationratescenarios

%

91%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2030E

Hyperadoption

2040E

20202025E

BearBase

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit11:Top6playerswillstilldominatethecellmanufacturingmarketthrough2030

GWh

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Start-up(<5yearknowhow)

Globalbatterymanufacturers'yield-adjustedcapacityoutlook

19%

18%

16%

17%

15%

19%

17%

18%

14%

8%

21%

19%

5%

61%

62%

63%

23%

64%

64%

24%

67%

23%

19%

16%78%

70%

69%

76%

72%

202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E

Top6

OEMandOEMbacked

ExistingproducersbeyondTop6Start-up(>5yearknowhow)

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Source:WoodMackenzie,SNEResearch,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit10:WeexpectthebatteryTAMtogrowbymorethan6timesandreach2.8TWhby2030

GWh

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

BatteryTAM

-

202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E

ESS

WoodMackenzie(EVonly)

ITdevices&Others

EV(BEV,PHEV,HEV,CV,Bus,etc)

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,WoodMackenzie

Exhibit12:Cellmanufacturingindustryex-Chinawilllikelyremaintightthrough2025

Demand/actualcapacity(%)

Cellmanufactuingcapacityutilization

180%

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

202020212022E2023E2024E2025E

GlobalEx-China

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Global

GoldmanSachs

8March20227

#1:“Green?ation”couldchallengethepaceofbatterypricedecline

Risingrawmaterialpricesarechallengingthelong-standingconsensusthatbatterypriceswillcontinuetodeclineinthecomingdecade.Weintroduceourproprietarybatterypackpricemodel,whichpointstoalikelyhiccupinbatterypricede?ationover2022-23,onthebackofhighermaterialprices.Wealsonotethecostsavingsfrombatteryinnovationscanbepartiallyoffsetbyfactorslikeincreasedmanufacturingcostofhighernickelcathodesandtheincreaseduseofmoreexpensive(butmorestable)arti?cialgraphitevs.naturalgraphite.Thatsaid,evenifbatterypricesfalllessthanpreviousexpectations,thecurrentstrengthinoilpricewilllikelysupportEVsales,inourview.

Batteryisacomplexinterplayofmultiplecomponents.Batterycostsaredeterminedbythetotalcostsofitsvariouscomponents,whichareinturndrivenbythecostsofdifferentrawmaterialsandprocessingmarginsateachlinkofthesupplychain.Thebatterysupplychain

(Exhibit13)

startsfromtheminingofrawmaterials,includinglithium,nickel,cobalt,amongmanyothers;then,material-processorsturntherawmaterialsintoprecursormaterialsforbatterycomponents;component-makersfurtherprocesstheprecursormaterialsintodifferenttypesofcathodes(NCM,LFP,etc.),anodes,separators,electrolytesandcurrentcollectors,readyforcell-manufacturerstoassembleintobatterycells;?nally,multiplecellsarepackagedtoreachthedesiredenergycapacityandinstalledforvehicles.Apartfromminerswhousuallyadoptmarket-drivenpricingforrawmaterials,otherparticipantsalongthesupplychaingenerallyadoptacost-pluspricingstrategy(exceptforcellmakers—likeinKorea—wherecostpass-throughsofarismostlyforcathodemetals),stilllargelyleavingendusersexposedtocostvolatility.

Global

GoldmanSachs

8March20228

Exhibit13:Batterysupplychainoverview:batteryisacomplexinterplayofmultiplecomponents

Source:Companydata,WoodMackenzie,SNEResearch,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Risingmaterialpriceschallengefuturede?ationofbatteryprices.Thefastexpansionofbatterydemandhascontributedtotightenedrawmaterialmarkets.Basedontheglobalpowertrainoutlookandthemetalintensityofbatteries,weexpectthebatterydemandofthemainmaterials(lithium,nickel,cobalt,manganese)willcontinuetogrowata22%/15%CAGRforthenext10/20years

(Exhibit15-

Exhibit16)

.Startingfrom2021,thebroad-basedmaterialcostin?ationhasstartedtochallengethe

long-standingconsensusthatbatterypriceswillcontinuetodeclineinthecomingdecade

(Exhibit14)

.Whiletheimpactofrawmaterialcostin?ationvariesacrossthebatterychemistry,weillustratethatevery10%changeofdifferentmaterialpricesleadsto0.1-1.2%changeoftheNCM811batterypackpriceasanexample

(Exhibit17)

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Exhibit14:Batteryrawmaterialshaveseensigni?cantpricein?ationthrough2021

Batterymaterialprices

Jan2017=100

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

201720182019202020212022LiNiCoMnAlCuLiPF6

Source:Re?nitiv,Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit16:Weexpectbatterydemandofmainmaterialstogrowata22%/15%CAGRforthenext10/20years

ktpa

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

Globalbatterysectordemandbymetal

80%ofLidemand(25E)

65%ofCodemand(25E)

12%ofNidemand(25E)

20202021E

Lithium(LCE)

2040E

2025E2030E2035E

NickelCobaltManganese

Source:Companydata,WoodMackenzie,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit15:Batteryproductionrequiresc.2000g/kWhofmetals

g/kWh

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Metalrequirements

NickelCobalt

IronphosphateCopper

ManganeseAluminum

Lithium

Aluminium

Source:Companydata,WoodMackenzie,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit17:Rawmaterialpricein?ationcontributestohigherbatterypackprices

%changeof2021cost

NCM811packsensitivityto10%changeinmaterialprices

1.4%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%

NickelElectrolyteLithiumGraphiteCopperCobaltAluminum

Source:Companydata,WoodMackenzie,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Alikelyhiccupin2022-23beforebatterypricesfurtherde?ate.Werunfourcommoditypricescenariosover2022-25,and?ndthattheaveragebatterypackpricewouldstayabovethe2021levelover2022-23,inbothourbasecaseandthescenariousingdecade-highmaterialprices

(Exhibit19)

.DecomposingthebasecaseUS$32/kWhaveragebatterypricedeclineover2020-2025E(fromUS$138/kWhtoUS$105/kWh),wenotehighercommoditypricescoulderodeUS$13/kWhoftheUS$45/kWhcostde?ationcontributedbyotherfactors

(Exhibit19)

.Suchcostde?ationmainlycomesfromcathodeinnovationandmixchanges,betterdesign(celldesignandcell-to-pack/cell-to-vehicleintegration)andopexsavingonutilizationincrease.Forexample,weseetheupcominglaunchofthelarger-sized4680cellstoimprovethecellenergydensityandlowerbatterycostsonanenergy-equivalentbasis;thatsaid,largercellsalsohavedemeritsincludingthedif?cultyofmakingactivematerialsofuniformthicknessandtemperaturecontrolwithincells.Toensuresafety,wethinkautomakerswillmovetoadoptlargercellslittlebylittle.

al0d6l

a0lbm6n26od2

r0

8M6TodS0SS

risesvs.Cathodeternaryinnovation

Anode

innovation(-);

CTP,CTC

Artificial

graphitesharerises(+)

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Exhibit18:Alikelyhiccupin2022-23beforebatterypricesfurtherde?ate

2025E:

Scenario1*:US$123/kWh

Basecase:

US$105/kWh

Scenario2:

US$98/kWh

Scenario3:

US$92/kWh

US$/kWhBatterypackpricescenarios

2019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E

CathodematerialAnodematerialOthercomponentsOpexProfitCell-to-pack

Materialpricescenarios:1)decade-highprices;2)5-yearaverages;3)2020levels

Source:Companydata,WoodMackenzie,SNEResearch,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestment

Research

Exhibit19:Highercommoditypricestoerodesomeofthecostde?ationcontributedbyotherfactors

US$/kWhBatterypackcostchange

US$138/kWh

Celldesignand

150

processimproves

140

Raw

materialpriceincrease

Scale,utilizationincreases

LFPshare

130

120

US$105/kWh

110

100

90

80

Source:Companydata,WoodMackenzie,SNEResearch,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestment

Research

Exhibit20:GSebatterypricevs.targetsofOEMs

Timeframe

2025

GSe

2025

Tesla

2024

Renau

lt

2024

Stellantis

2024-25

LGES

Newcell2pack

VW

Nospecifictimeline

GM(Ultium)GM(NextgenUltium)

BYD

Celldesign/manufacturing

15%

32%

15%

partial

25%

15%

25%

Anode

Cathode

1%6%

5%

12%

16%

10-15%

20%

2%

9%

5%

10%

Cell-pack/cell-vehicle

10%

7%

5%

partial

20%

5%

15%

21%

Commodityprice

-10%

Total23%56%36%40%50%40%60%

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Costimpactofcathodeandanodeinnovationsreducedbyoffsettingfactors.

Althoughhigher-nickelcathodesimproveenergydensityandreducecathodematerialcosts,wenotethecostsavingispartiallyoffsetbyincreasedmanufacturingcostsrequiredforNCM811vs.NCM523/622

(Exhibit21)

.Foranodes,costsavingsfromtheenergydensityimprovement(viaadoptionofsiliconinanodes)islargelyoffsetbyarisingshareofarti?cialgraphitevs.naturalgraphite,duetofavorablefeaturesofthearti?cialgraphitelikelessswellingandlongerlifecycle

(Exhibit22)

.Arti?cialgraphitegainingshareagainstnaturalgraphiteraisescostsintwoways:1)arti?cialgraphite(320mAh/g)usuallyhaslowercapacitythannaturalgraphite(360mAh/g),leadingtomorematerialneededpercell;2)arti?cialgraphiteisabout20%moreexpensivethannaturalgraphite.

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Exhibit21:CostsavingsfromNCM811cathodesispartiallyoffsetbyhighermanufacturingcosts

Costcomparison(2021)

US$/kWh

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

CathodematerialManufacturing

NCM(523)NCM(622)NCM(811)

Source:WoodMackenzie,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhi